Migration, Environment and Climate Change: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE 17 route des Morillons, 1211 Geneva 19, Switzerland Tel: +41.22.717 91 11 | Fax: +41.22.798 61 50 E-mail: hq@iom.int | Internet: hp://www.iom.int MIGRATION, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE US$ 78.00 The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reect the views of the Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM). The designaons employed and the presentaon of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authories, or concerning its froners or boundaries. IOM is commied to the principle that humane and orderly migraon benets migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organizaon, IOM acts with its partners in the internaonal community to: assist in meeng the operaonal challenges of migraon; advance understanding of migraon issues; encourage social and economic development through migraon; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants. This publicaon was prepared in collaboraon with the United Naons University Instute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) with the generous nancial support of the Rockefeller Foundaon. In parcular we would like to thank Claudia Juech from the Rockefeller Foundaon for her constant support. Edited by: Frank Laczko and Chrisne Aghazarm Copy Editor: Olga Sheean Publisher: Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon 17 route des Morillons 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel: +41.22.717 91 11 Fax: +41.22.798 61 50 E-mail: hq@iom.int Internet: hp://www.iom.int ______________ ISBN 978-92-9068-454-1 © 2009 Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM) ______________ All rights reserved. No part of this publicaon may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmied in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior wrien permission of the publisher. 92_08 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: ASSESSING THE EVIDENCE Edited by Frank Laczko and Chrisne Aghazarm UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY UNU-EH S Institute for Environment and Human Security in collaboraon with with the nancial support of 3 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Contents Foreword by William Lacy Swing 5 Chapter I: Introducon and Overview: Enhancing the knowledge base 7 1. Introducon 9 2. Contextualizing the migraon, environment and climate change debate 13 3. The state of current knowledge and gaps: A summary of key ndings 17 4. Recommendaons for further policy-oriented research 29 5. Concluding remarks 35 6. References 37 Chapter II: Challenges and approaches to measuring the migraon–environment nexus 41 1. Seng the scene 43 2. Climate change impact, adaptaon and vulnerability (CCIAV) 51 3. Migraon and the environment 69 4. Issues of uncertainty and data requirements 77 5. Discussion and research priories 83 6. References 91 7. Appendix 1 (from Migraon DRC, 2008) 109 8. Appendix 2 (from the Mexican Migraon Project (MMP) website: mmp.opr.princeton.edu) 111 Chapter III: Collecng data on the migraon–environment nexus 113 1. Introducon 115 2. The current state of knowledge 119 3. Data collecon 139 4. Case study on Petén, Guatemala: adding quesons to an exisng survey 157 5. Ecuador case study 161 6. Conclusions and recommendaons 171 7. References 177 Chapter IV: Researching environmental change and migraon: evaluaon of EACH-FOR methodology and applicaon in 23 case studies worldwide 197 1. Introducon 199 2. EACH-FOR methodology 203 3. Field experiences: Viet Nam, Mozambique and Niger 213 4. Recommendaons for future environment–migraon research 229 4 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 5. Conclusions 233 6. References 235 7. Appendix 241 Chapter V: Migraon and natural disasters 245 1. Introducon 247 2. Migraon and natural disaster stascs 255 3. Migratory movements out of disaster-aected areas 265 4. Migraon into disaster-aected areas 287 5. Conclusions and recommendaons 293 6. References 301 Chapter VI: Migraon and slow-onset disasters: desercaon and drought 319 1. Introducon 321 2. The changing climate and human vulnerability 323 3. Drought, desercaon and migraon 325 4. Other policy challenges: migraon and climate adaptaon 333 5. Conclusion 339 6. References 343 Chapter VII: Managing environmentally induced migraon 353 1. Introducon 355 2. Life cycle for managing environmentally induced migraon 359 3. Strategies in developing countries to manage environmental migraon 361 4. References 381 Chapter VIII: The role of legal and normave frameworks for the protecon of environmentally displaced people 385 1. Introducon 387 2. The case for developing the capacity of rights-based norms and instruments of protecon to support the needs of environmental migrants 391 3. The role of exisng legal and normave frameworks in aording eecve protecon to environmental migrants and the scope for enhancing these frameworks 405 4. The extent to which legal and normave frameworks can support the capacity of local and regional governance and civil society structures to implement adaptaon and resilience strategies 423 5. Research needs and priories 425 6. Conclusions: the supremacy of a rights-based approach 433 7. References 435 5 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Foreword by William Lacy Swing The consequences of climate change on migraon present humanity with an unprecedented challenge. The numbers of storms, droughts and oods have increased threefold over the last 30 years with devastang aects on vulnerable communies, parcularly in the developing world. In 2008, 20 million persons have been displaced by extreme weather events, compared to 4.6 million internally displaced by conict and violence over the same period. How many people will be aected by climate change by 2050? Forecasts vary from 25 million to 1 billion people with a gure of 200 million being the most widely cited esmate. Extreme environmental events such as cyclones, hurricanes, tsunamis and tornadoes tend to capture the media headlines, but it is gradual changes in the environment that are likely to have a much greater impact on the movement people in the future. For example, over the last 30 years, twice as many people have been aected by droughts as by storms (1.6 billion compared with approximately 718 million). It is important, however, not to view migraon as simply the failure of communies to adapt to climate change. Migraon has always been one of the ways in which people have chosen to adapt to changing environments. Migraon can also help those le behind in environmentally degraded areas. Studies in Côte d’Ivoire, for example, have shown that migrants who moved from Burkina Faso regularly sent home remiances which were invested in schools and hospitals and in water and irrigaon systems. Moreover, migrants are oen the rst to provide assistance when natural disasters occur. Research in countries such as El Salvador, Jamaica , Botswana and the Philippines has shown that migrant remiances increase signicantly when disasters occur providing essenal relief assistance to aected communies. As the world’s leading migraon agency, the Internaonal Organizaon for Migraon (IOM) endeavours to stay abreast of trends and issues that impact the more than 212 million migrants worldwide. Since the early 1990s, IOM has been acve in the area of migraon, climate change and the environment, and has carried out programmes in more than 40 countries from the Pacic Islands, to Lan America and on the Asian and African connents. In many of these areas, we have assisted those aected by hurricanes, severe ooding and drought. 6 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence IOM’s programmac acon has constructed a solid foundaon of rst-hand experiences and lessons learned that have energized the Organizaon’s policy and research. We have sought to enhance our knowledge base through research and publicaons that examine the complex relaonship between migraon, climate change and the environment. In doing so, we have been able to idenfy emerging trends, raise awareness, and work towards innovave soluons that are sensive to specic local condions. The main purpose of this new book is to suggest concrete ways in which the internaonal community can begin to address the huge gaps in our knowledge relang to the likely impact of climate change on migraon. The book does this by taking stock of the exisng evidence on the eects of climate change and environmental degradaon on migraon, providing a comprehensive overview of the ndings of recent research studies. Throughout, our focus is centred on how research can best inform policy and provide the evidence which decision-makers will need in the future to plan for and respond to environmentally induced migraon. Addressing the unprecedented challenge before us requires unprecedented partnership - collaboraon among internaonal organizaons, civil society, the private sector, the academic world, and governments. In preparing this new book , we hope to share our experse with our partners and contribute to global dialogue and eorts within the United Naons Framework Convenon on Climate Change and beyond. William Lacy Swing Director General Introduction and Overview: Enhancing the knowledge base Frank Laczko, Christine Aghazarm 1 1 Research and Publicaons Division, IOM, Geneva [...]... in the environment and the movement of people 11 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base 2 Contextualizing the migration, environment and climate change debate The migration, environment and climate change nexus is a complex one By way of background and in order to contextualize the debate, the following section provides a brief overview of the. .. of the existing evidence base and that is the key purpose of this book The book assesses the existing body of evidence relating to the likely impact of environmental and climate change on migration, and proposes several concrete ways in which to enhance the current Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 10 Enhancing the Knowledge Base knowledge base In April 2008, IOM together... on the topic of migration, the environment and climate change within the aforementioned themes It examines the existing evidence with respect to the ways in which changes in the environment and climate change are affecting the movement of people and the types of policy responses and protection gaps which potentially exist Furthermore, it offers an overview of innovative approaches to measuring and. .. the sinking small 15 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base island states, like Tuvalu and the Maldives and in delta regions (interalia the Mekong, Inner Niger Delta and the Ganges Delta), and regions already facing severe drought and desertification such as the Sahel region Development implications: migration as adaptation The potential benefits... 1992) At the time the issue was framed within a wider security debate, but the momentum did not last Though it was a first attempt to explicitly 13 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base link migration with environmental change, the topic of migration and the environment and its inter-linkages was largely ignored by migration experts and policy... What will be the consequences of migration for the people who move, for those left behind and for the places of destination? There is also a concern to understand better the here and now – how is environmental change affecting migration today and can we already identify especially vulnerable populations or regions? 9 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge... Given the multi-causal nature of migration, which can result from a combination of various “push” and “pull” factors that can be inter-alia economic, social, political, establishing a direct causal link is a challenge The key is assessing the extent to which the environment or climate change 17 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base is the primary... broader and larger 29 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base scale inter-disciplinary work Though slowly changing, the two fields, migration and the environment, remain separate both in terms of data collection, methods and at the level of policy responses and analysis (ii) Towards better data and methods It is hard to persuade policy makers of the. .. Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability (EFMSV) conference, Bonn 2008 2 Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 14 Enhancing the Knowledge Base changes in the environment may have a much greater impact on the movement of people in the future Gradual environmental changes, such as desertification, coastal and soil erosion, tend to be less dramatic and therefore attract less... be addressed holistically Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 16 Enhancing the Knowledge Base 3 The state of current knowledge and gaps: A summary of key findings The complexity of the migration and environment nexus as described above, requires not only contextualizing the debate, but also a coherent framing of the issues which surround it The following sub-sections, . Enhancing the Knowledge Base 17 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence 18 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base is the. Enhancing the Knowledge Base 14 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base link migraon with environmental change, the topic of migraon and the environment. in the coming years such as the sinking small 16 Migraon, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence Enhancing the Knowledge Base island states, like Tuvalu and the Maldives and