PART A: Individual Research Report (maximum 2,000 words) (45%) As part of your development as a critical thinker within the financial sciences there is a need to understand and partake in detailed international discussions about relevant and recent issues within the financial markets. As such your task is to write a 2000word individual research report on a topic of your choice. Your topic should have a focus on the core financial markets including bond, equity, andor derivative markets. Research report guide: You should begin your research report by having consideration for contemporary issues within both the national and international financial markets – bonds, equities, andor derivatives. You try to should identify an issue that you believe is both important and of interest to you. In the individual research report, you should conduct your own research, which goes beyond the course materials provided to you. The aim of this assessment is to demonstrate your knowledge and critical understanding of the topic covered over the academic semester. You should identify a core research question that would guide your exploration of the area of research interest that you have identified. Your final product will be assessed on how well you succeed in identifying, explaining and analysing relevant issues and arguments, to produce a clear and concise paper, where issues are logically developed in a wellthoughtout structure, and how well you can support your findings with the relevant evidence. Note that your report will be conceptual in nature and will focus on providing a robust narrative of the existing literature behind your area of research. You should structure this narrative appropriately so that it provides the reader with the clear, and logical understanding of the foundations of your research topic, and the lead up to the current issue at hand. Your research report should focus on the academic literature with minimal use of actual data. The individual research report should contain the following sections: Title (less than 15 words) Abstract (less than 150 words) Introduction – this should provide the motivation of the research question and some background. The introduction should also briefly state your core research question, identifying the key issues, and briefly summarise what you have found from your review of the academic literature Main body – you should section the main body of your research report. Use subheadings, to divide your research paper into sections that examine different aspects of your research question, to provide a logical structure for your research paper and which shows the logical development of your ideas. Conclusion – this section should state your findings in relation to your research question and the possible implications of your research on practice References – Harvard format Part B: Reflection on the Industry Talk (maximum 500 words) (5%): You are required to write a reflection on the industry talk. Your reflection should address the following questions: What is the core theme of the presentation? What and how can you relate the presentation to a topic(s) that has been covered on this course? What are your key takeaways from the discussions?
Trang 1BAFI3182-FINANCIAL MARKET AND
INSTITUTIONS ASSESSMENT 3
Type of Assignment Individual Research Report (50%)
INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH PROJECT
Trang 2Table of Content
PART A: INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH REPORT 2
I ABSTRACT 2
II INTRODUCTION 3
III LITERATURE REVIEW 3
1 The impacts of SARS-Covid-2 epidemics on the stock market performance 3
2 DETERMINANTS AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET AND STOCK PRICES 7
a Inflation rate 7
b Interest rate 8
c Exchange rate 9
d Investor sentiment 10
IV CONCLUSION 10
V REFERENCES 10
PART B: INDUSTRY TALK 13
Trang 3PART A: INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH REPORT
How does the Covid-19 Pandemic impact the stock market
performance?
This study aims to investigate and analyze the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the equity market (stock market) performance in some most affected countries around the world
in general and Vietnam in particular, based on the number of confirmed cases and deaths, as well
as several relevant determinants such as inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and investors’ sentiment This research relies on panel-data regression models to determine impacts of the daily expansion in the number of COVID-19 affirmed cases and deaths during pre-lockdown and lockdown daily stock returns of Vietnamese listed firms It is confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic places negative influences on the overall economy and equity market worldwide, including in Vietnam Ultimately, this paper has discovered that the Vietnamese stock market performs oppositely between pre-lockdown and lockdown periods while their stock market has a sign to gradually rebound since the nationwide lockdown Furthermore, Vietnamese stock performance and its return acted heterogeneously in different market industries during the COVID-19 boom
II INTRODUCTION
COVID-19 pandemic-a large-scale outbreak of infectious disease originating in Wuhan, China, not only disturbs the health status of the population and significantly knocks out domestic and international trading in most countries worldwide, including Vietnam (WHO 2020) Changes in macroeconomic variables like commodity demand and supply bottleneck; higher unemployment rate, the sharp drop in GDP, and rising uncertainty substantially threaten many listed companies' survival and their further sustainability, even some are bankrupt This seriously reduces both businesses' and individuals' income and destroys investors’ confidence in holding stocks Thus, the pandemic hit a painful blow to both the national and international stock
Trang 4markets, causing great volatility in overall stock markets negatively (Al-Awadhi et al 2020; Alfaro et al 2020; He et al 2020; Zhang et al 2020)
This research will analyze and evaluate impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Vietnamese stock market performance, both internationally and domestically To have a comprehensive understanding of COVID-19's negative influences on the Vietnam equity market, this paper determines four relevant factors such as inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and investors’ sentiment Additionally, briefly inform that the Vietnamese stock market starts to be thriving since nationwide lockdown due to successfully controlling the pandemic and rebounding its economy
III LITERATURE REVIEW
1 THE IMPACTS OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE
a International outlook
With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, the world’s stock markets had to confront substantial negative fluctuations Hence, most stock market indices all over the planet have documented their greatest one-day plunges on record, while no sector has been left unharmed, but each sectoral stock market will be affected at different levels Ozil and Arun (2020) underlined the trend of the USA stock market has fallen below 30% from its peak in
Mar-2020 The evolution of new Coronavirus varieties puts higher tension on stock markets of the United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil, and Columbia which instigated those to get more deteriorate than the U.S, with diminishes of 37%, 33%, 48%, and 47%, respectively (Fernandes 2020)
The expansion in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths is related to a significant increase in the illiquidity and volatility of the world equity market, which debilitates the stock returns of most listed companies engaging the entire stock market (Chen et al 2009) Results of the Kartal quantile regression model implementation validated the negative correlation between stock market indices and the ever-increasing COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in East-Asian countries (Kartal et al 2021) After resulting, this demonstrated that Covid-19 high-spreading waves were demolishing and stagnating all-inclusive equity markets' potentialities
Covid-19 epidemic hit psychological shocks for investors The emergence of economic losses and higher unemployment rate created triggered anxiety and pessimism for
Trang 5investors about their future incomes when they’re holding higher-risk securities (He et al 2020; Liu et al 2020) Correspondingly, many decided to turn to “safe-haven assets” such as precious metals (gold and silver), currencies (US dollar and Swiss franc), and US Treasuries (T-bill and T-bond) to mitigate risks This economic depression initially prompted a massive selloff in stock markets as investors transferred risky stocks into safe-haven assets to safeguard their riches (Bofinger et al 2020; Wyplosz 2020) Thus, stock prices will fall, and stock markets have been struck more harshly by the COVID-19 hit (Adekoya & Nti 2020) Potential yields gradually decrease as investors make less money on the difference between the bid and ask prices while holding debased stocks
b Vietnam
Vietnam’s stock market is made up of 2 main stock exchanges: the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) and the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HASTC) Due to the lockdown in the domestic trading and international business, there was a stagnation economy, and a large-scale financial crisis emergence caused investors’ worries and bewilderment, reduced their confidence
in holding stock, and led to fluctuations in Vietnamese stock market Prices of most stocks trading on Vietnam securities market plunged in Q1-2020 During the trading session in
Mar-2020, the VN-Index fell by 28% compared with 31 Dec-2019, bringing about a GDP deficiency
of USD 37.4 billion of the Vietnam equity market capitalization (Dao and Gan 2021)
Trang 6According to Table 1, the average returns (RE) of all stocks were negative during the study period (Covid-19 outbreak period) demontrated for a downhill stock market in Vietnam
Table 2 records the random-effects panel-data regression results of models (1) and (2) (Figure 1) This table consolidated results that the daily number of confirmed cases and deaths increased in Vietnam (CASE) considerably and adversely influence stock prices in the general market index and relevant sectors, as well as sluggish stock returns of nearly all Vietnamese firms on HASTC and HOSE (Al-Awadhi et al 2020)
The reactions of the stock market to the epidemic aren’t homogenous among different sectors and industries and stock market status can be varied by item supply and demand changes Commodity prices can rule related stock prices positively, while demand and supply of commodities can vary their prices Covid-19 waves caused a decrease in both aggregate supply and aggregate demand in general However, in fact, there will be inequality in different
Trang 7commodity demands assuming in the bottleneck supply scenario If revenues rise due to high commodity prices caused by shortage (D<S), operating profits will increase (revenue minus costs), which pushes up the stock price and vice versa
Schoenfeld (2020) discovered industries including gas & petroleum, garment, transport, machinery, hospitality, and wholesalers’ sectors suffered heavy effects on their stock markets because distancing isolation and unnecessariness of use them during SARS-Covid-2 occurrence diminish those sectors’ demand and their prices, led to huge revenue and profit loss, which make their stock prices fall and impair their stock markets Conversely, biotechnology, food & beverage, healthcare, and pharmaceutical industries were positively impressive Those demands rise and gradually push up their prices, so the related stock of companies engaged in those industries will increase, expect for positive returns On HOSE, the financial sector was the worst affected by Covid-19 because of the excessive emergence of non-performing loans and massive deposit withdrawals (Dao & Gan 2021)
The Vietnamese government timely and decisively lockdown and imposes bans and restrictions to reduce market crash risk, curtail volatility and protect the market stability Since the Vietnamese government declared successfully control the COVID-19 spread, the Vietnam stock market has rebounded rapidly On the HOSE, 55% of the total stocks listed expressed positive performance (Giang & Yap 2020)
Looking into Table 2 data, variables D_BFLOCK are negative and significant at 1% for both HOSE and HASTC proving adversely negative influences of Covid-19 on Vietnamese listed firms’ stock return pre-lockdown While variable D_LOCK is positive and significant at 1% for both HOSE and HASTC demonstrating the positive effects of Covid-19 lockdown on the stock performance The outstanding presentation of the Vietnam stock market during the lockdown derives from the confidence and trust of investors in the Vietnamese government to offer opportune actions to fight against the pandemic successfully (Dao & Gan 2020)
Trang 82 DETERMINANTS AFFECT THE STOCK MARKET AND STOCK PRICES
a Inflation rate
The ongoing pandemic triggered inflation as lingering COVID-induced supply chain disruptions Thus, plentiful domestic and international companies experience huge operation cost pressures such as skyrocketing input prices, rising transportation costs, or employment fees burden, which will squeeze their earnings and profits Hence, many must downsize production to survive or even go bankrupt (Hatmanu & Cautisanu 2021) This hardest hit psychological shocks
to investors which reduces their confidence in holding stocks (equity) and reinforces them to sell more stocks rather than buy to preserve their principal and previous gains before they lose more According to the Law of Supply and Demand theory, if more investors desire to sell more stocks than buy them (S>D), the stock prices will fall Consequently, higher inflation rates worsen stock market presentation
However, in fact, stock markets engaging in different sectors/industries perform differently under COVID-19 impacts Several industries like food, pharmaceutical, healthcare, and high-tech showed impressively positive returns (Alfaro et al 2020) Their stock prices fell initially but a little due to global impacts But those industries can rapidly rebound and achieve potential returns since their items’ demand can grow fast in epidemic because of their necessity
to recover human life during serious pandemics Hence, their sales numbers are enriched, reaching larger revenues to compensate for higher manufacturing-costs pressure As a result, their stock prices recover and tend to rise back, inducing relevant sectors’ stock markets to be attractive again
The inflation rate in Vietnam was 3.22% in 2020, a 0.43% increase from 2019 but is considered increasing at moderate level Also, Vietnamese stock market firstly experience deterioration and falling stock prices due to common inflationary influences, compared to some top impacted by climbing inflation such as U.S (4.7%), India (6%), and U.K (6.2%) (WorldBank 2020)
b Interest rate
Trang 9Alam and Uddin (2009) recorded an inverse correlation between interest rate and stock prices, as interest rates move higher, stock prices move lower, and vice versa In detail, when interest rates rise, both businesses and consumers (borrowers) tend to reduce their expenditures because they must pay more loan (debts) costs Product and services productions are downsized, higher cost payments which make both businesses lose potential profits at a different level Subsequently, the loss of profits of companies is likely to bewilder investors who are holding their stocks This tendency instigates investors to sell off their stock more, causing a stock market surplus (S>D) that pushes the price down, combining tightened capital flows into stock markets leading to stock market getting worse The opposite case holds for when interest rates are lowered
Since Covid-19 pandemic caused Vietnam’s economic stagnation and many businesses’ dooms, the State-Bank-of-Vietnam (SBV) decide to tighten the monetary policy as facilitating money supply and cutting interest rate benchmark from 5-6% to 3.4-4% attempt to support economic recovery (Vietnamese-Ministry-of-Finance-2020) Lowering interest rates can stimulate more operators and their investment that may pull back some industrial stock prices with the hope to better the entire stock market further
c Exchange rate
Depreciation is the loss in value of a country’s currency against other foreign currencies Studies that have investigated the impact of domestic currency depreciation on the stock market have negatively affected the prices of the stock market (Soenen & Hannigar 1988; Phylaktis & Ravazzolo 2005) Prices of stock exchanged in an economy would decline following
a devaluation in the local currency One reason is that the currency depreciation would yield a lower worth of dividend payments for investors who hold domestic stocks in that economy Moreover, the devaluation can flag low growth potentialities for portfolio administrators who embrace stocks in the domestic economy (Rehan et al 2019) Thus, individuals will ultimately move their cash to purchase foreign stocks where they are able to significantly acquire more profits, rather than continuously place funds in the domestically risky market The opposite case holds for currency appreciation
d Investor sentiment
Trang 10Investors' sentiment or confidence can manipulate the stock market performance which can push-up or pull-down stock prices (Baker & Wurgler 2007) If stock prices keep rising, investors are said to be ‘bullish’, having positive sentiment for stock speculation But if price falls are predicted, sentiment is ‘bearish’, which means investors have negative attitudes regarding stock market performance, encouraging them to start selling stock to minimize loss
After the lockdown until now, a good signal for the Vietnamese stock market to recover appears when the Vietnamese stock market receives positive stock confidence returns from both domestic and international investors Their strong confidence and trust in Vietnam government's reactions to combat the pandemic successfully for favorable stock prices have pushed up Vietnamese stock prices again, expecting a rebounded stock market (Dao & Gan 2021)
IV CONCLUSION
Conclusively, the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on both world economy and overall equity market are adversely serious since new confirmed cases and deaths are continuously increasing daily, and Vietnam is no exception Nearly all stock market indexes plummeted dramatically, and stock prices fell which limited potential yields of investors and deteriorated stock market performance Furthermore, with high inflation rate, interest rate, and exchange rate variation, investors’ reactions contributed to explaining the negative effects caused
by this outbreak However, thanks to the right and wise policies, timely actions of Vietnamese Governments, and investors’ trusts, the equity market has gradually been prospectively attractive again
Adekoya, A.F and Nti, I.K 2020, ‘The COVID-19 Outbreak and Effects on Major Stock Market
Indices across the Globe: A Machine Learning Approach.’, Indian Journal of Science and
Technology, vol.13, no.35, pp.3695–3706.
Alam, M.M and Uddin, G 2009, ‘Relationship between Interest Rate and Stock Price: Empirical
Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries’, International Journal of Business and
Management, vol.4, no.3, pp.43-51