(Tiểu luận) reportsubject money and capital markets

VIETNAM GENERAL CONFEDERATION OF LABOUR TON DUC THANG UNIVERSITY o0o REPORT SUBJECT: MONEY AND CAPITAL MARKETS Group ID: Lecturer: Nguyễn Trần Châu Nghi Hồ Quang Tú Đoàn Nguyễn Quỳnh Như Dr Lê B;o Thy – 720K0503 – 720K0629 – 721K0221 Ho Chi Minh City, 17 October 2022 REPORT ID Student Name Nguyễn Trần Châu Nghi Hồ Quang Tú Đoàn Nguyễn Quỳnh Như Group Score: Student ID 720K0503 720K0629 721K0221 % Contribution 96% 96% 98% Topic: BREXIT Member Score TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN UNION? 1.1 Beneficial of joining EU .2 1.2 Economic .2 1.3 People WHAT IS BREXIT? 2.1 Why the UK exit from EU 2.2 Results of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum 2.2.1 By regional .7 2.2.2 By age 2.3 The consequence of Brexit 3.1 3.2 HOW WAS THE UK BEEN AFFECTED AFTER BREXIT 10 Short-term: (In 2016) 10 Long-term (5-year period) 10 HOW BREXIT AFFECTED THE WORLD ECONOMY 11 4.1 World (generally) .11 4.2 Big-economy .12 4.3 VN 14 CONCLUSION .15 REFERENCE 16 INTRODUCTION In 2015, the Conservative Party called for the referendum Most of the proBrexit voters were older, working-class residents of England's countryside They were afraid of the free movement of immigrants and refugees, claiming in the process that citizens of poorer countries were taking jobs and benefits Small businesses were also frustrated by EU fees Others felt leaving the EU would create jobs Many felt the U.K paid more into the EU than it received Those who voted to stay in the EU primarily lived in London, Scotland, and Northern Ireland They liked free trade with the EU, and claimed most EU immigrants were young and eager to work Most felt that leaving the EU would damage the U.K.’s global status Brexit was the nickname for "British exit" from the EU, the economic and policy union of which the U.K had been a member since 1973 That changed on June 23, 2016, when the U.K voted to leave the EU The residents decided that the benefits of free trade weren't enough to offset the costs of free movement of immigration The vote was 17.4 million in favor of leaving vs 16.1 million who voted to remain On December 31, 2020, the transition period for the United Kingdom (U.K.) to withdraw from the European Union (EU), otherwise known as "Brexit," officially came to an end This marked the end of a years-long process that was overseen by two different Prime Ministers, included several delays and extensions, and left the U.K divided 1 WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN UNION? The European Union (EU) is a unified international organization that governs the economic, political, and social policies of 27 member states Originally formed with the desire to achieve peace in Europe, current EU policies are tailored to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital among its member states 1.1 Beneficial of joining EU General Advantages  Membership in a community of stability, democracy, security and prosperity;  Stimulus to GDP growth, more jobs, higher wages and pensions;  Growing internal market and domestic demand;  Free movement of labour, goods, services and capital 1.2 Economic Examine the main benefits of EU membership:  Single market Sources (respectively): Højbjerre Brauer Schultz (2018), “25 years of the European Single Market: Study funded by the Danish Business Authority”, Copenhagen; Euro2 stat, “Intra and Extra-EU trade by Member State and by product group, ext_lt_intratrd” (accessed 13 January 2020); American Chamber of Commerce to the EU (2017), “The EU Single Market: Impact on Member States”, Brussels Member State economies benefit from EU membership This is mostly due to the Single Market and economic integration that leads to higher competition, efficiency and intra-EU trade volumes Similarly, the EU allows countries to have a better relative position when it comes to international trade Member States currently have access to global markets thanks to the trade agreements negotiated at the EU level These factors have positive effects on employment, growth and knowledge diffusion operating budgetary balances calculations fully disregard these effects  Common Agricultural policy (CAP) Direct payments that support farm incomes These offset the risks and uncertainties associated with farming and are allocated on the condition that strict food safety, environmental and animal health and welfare rules are followed Market measures to deal with difficult situations, such as a sudden drop in demand due to a health scare or a fall in prices due to temporary oversupply Rural development programmes (co-financed by EU countries) that foster innovation and competitiveness to make rural areas attractive places in which to live and work  Common Fisheries policy The EU’s common fisheries policy aims to ensure that fishing and aquaculture (farming fish under controlled conditions) are environmentally, economically and socially sustainable Its goals are to foster a dynamic and sustainable fishing industry, conserve resources and protect the marine environment while ensuring a fair standard of living for fishing communities It contains a set of rules for managing European fishing fleets and for conserving fish stocks To prevent overfishing, quotas for EU Member States set limits on how much of each species can be caught, while a landing obligation avoids the wasteful practice of dumping unwanted fish  Regional policy Regional policy underpins European solidarity, boosting economic growth and improving quality of life through strategic investment It dedicates the bulk of its funding Document continues below Discover more from: International Financial… B02042 Đại học Tôn Đức… 170 documents Go to course Final TL - 2021-2022 International 100% (3) Financial… to help the EU’s less-developed countries and regions to catch up and to therefore re12 duce the economic, social and territorial disparities that still exist in the EU  EURO CÁC Chính SÁCH THUẾ CỦA Chính PHỦ ÁP… International Financial… 100% (3) Ch1-Marketing  Management, 16th… 26 The ease with which prices can be compared between countries, which boosts International Financial… competition between businesses, thereby benefiting consumers   Price stability 100% (3) The euro makes it easier, cheaper and safer for businesses to buy and sell within the euro area and to trade with the rest of the world NHTM3-CK-BE 2021 ôn thi  Improved economic stability and growth  Better integrated and therefore more efficient financial markets  Greater influence in the global economy  A tangible sign of a European identity International Financial… 100% (2) 1.3 People From peace and security to global power, the EU gives improving Debenefits lan to- This people’s daily lives European citizens can travel and work freely throughout the practice materials European Union, strengthening their ties European1 institutions offer a platform to… International Financial… 100% (2) for European citizens to voice their opinions and debate policies that affect them  High food and environmental standards Review-Chapters Financial-… Thanks to the member countries’ cooperation, companies or institutions are deterred 80 The food and environment in the EU meet the world’s highest quality standards from selling contaminated food or polluting any areas  Human Rights International Financial… 100% (1) The EU aims to protect all minorities and vulnerable groups No one is left behind in the organisation regardless of nationality, language group, gender, profession, culture, sexuality, or disability Citizens are also protected against unfair treatment in the workplace  Global Power With the 27 member countries working together, there is much more voice than 27 nations acting separately The EU promotes cooperation and collaboration among European countries and provides a shared identity for its member states Hence, European states also find it much easier to cooperate in an organisation like the European Union WHAT IS BREXIT? The food and environment in the EU meet the world’s highest quality standards Thanks to the member countries’ cooperation, companies or institutions are deterred from selling contaminated food or polluting any areas Brexit is a portmanteau of the phrases British and departure that was formed to allude to the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union in a referendum on June 23, 2016 (EU) Brexit occurred around 11 p.m Greenwich Mean Time, 31 January 2020 The United Kingdom and the European Union signed a preliminary free-trade agreement on December 24, 2020, providing unrestricted trade of products without tariffs or quotas However, essential features of the future relationship, like as trade in services, which accounts for 80% of the UK economy, remain unresolved This avoided a nodeal Brexit, which would have been disastrous for the UK economy On January 1, 2021, the UK parliament accepted a provisional agreement On April 28, 2021, the European Parliament approved it While the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) allows for tariff- and quota-free trade in products, U.K.-EU trade is still subject to customs procedures This means that trade is not as seamless as it was when the UK was a member of the EU Why the UK exit from EU  Economics The first was straightforward The EU's detractors said that it is a dysfunctional economic institution The EU failed to address the economic issues that have arisen since 2008 For example, southern Europe has 20% unemployment The disparity between the lifestyles of southern Europeans and Germans (who have 4.2% unemployment) is stark Europe as a whole has experienced economic stagnation The alternative of remaining in the EU was economic ruin, according to the argument Staying in a stagnant organization to tackle British problems, on the other hand, was myopic and made little sense to opponents They felt that Britain would follow Europe's lead if it remained in the European Union They obviously did not expect Europe to erect trade barriers against Britain Germany's third most important export market is the United Kingdom A trade war with Britain is the last thing Germany wants Similarly, the prospect of London's banks relocating to Frankfurt is logistically unfeasible Clients from all over the world adore visiting London, and in finance, it's all about the clients The existing financial links were not created by the European Union Britain has played a financial role for nearly two centuries The EU is a financial reality-aligned system It does not originate If London's banks relocated to Frankfurt, New York would become a one-of-a-kind magnet Finally, the Europeans require a financial center in London They will not shut it down  Sovereignty The growth of nationalism throughout the world is the second reason for Brexit There is growing skepticism against international banking, economic, and defense groups established after World War II The EU, the IMF, and NATO are all strong instances of this Many opponents of the EU argue that these institutions no longer serve a function Furthermore, these groups steal control away from individual states Brexit seemed like a fair answer to them because of their distrust and fear of losing control Such organizations, however, are undeniably valuable to EU supporters They may need to be refined, but they should not be abandoned The European Union's immigration crisis was a catalyst Some EU politicians contended that assisting refugees was a moral obligation However, EU opponents considered immigration as a national issue because it harmed the country's internal life Avoiding this issue was a major motivator for the "leave" vote The EU is oblivious to the strength of nationalism It seeks to preserve nationality as a cultural privilege However, it deprives individual nations of the ability to make numerous decisions This may have worked prior to 2008, but it is now becoming increasingly difficult to accept  Political Elitism Finally, Britain's political leadership suffered a significant setback Both the Conservative and Labour parties were rejected by "Brexit" voters Both parties had supported remaining in the EU, but many of their members had come out against it It was ultimately a three-way fight Two established parties wished to remain in the EU, but a third faction recruited from both parties wished to leave This third segment perceived both establishment parties as opposed to their interests This should be viewed in a broader context Financial markets were terrified by the prospect of Brexit They said it clearly What they didn't realize was how much legitimacy they had lost in 2008 Most "leave" supporters believed that the financial industry's irresponsibility and incompetence had resulted in a calamity for many Besides, they saw no gain in the growth of the financial business even though it wasn't true It is critical to appreciate that Brexit was a vote against the British establishment Voters believed that politicians, corporate leaders, and intellectuals had lost their right to manage the system Voters believed the elite despised their ideals, as well as their nationalism and interests 2.2 Results of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum 2.2.1 By regional The Leave campaign received 51.9% of the vote, or 17.4 million votes, in the June 2016 referendum, while the Remain campaign received 48.1% or 16.1 million votes The turnout rate was 72.2% The findings were tallied on a national scale, however, the overall values mask significant regional differences: Brexit was supported by 53.4% of English voters compared to 38% of Scottish votes Because England has the largest population in the United Kingdom, its support tilted the outcome in favour of Brexit Brexit would have gained fewer than 45% of the vote if the ballot had been held just in Wales (where Leave voters also won), Scotland, and Northern Ireland The outcome defied forecasts and roiled global markets, forcing the British pound to collapse to its lowest level in 30 years versus the US dollar Former Prime Minister David Cameron, who called the referendum and campaigned for the United Kingdom to remain in the EU, resigned the next day In July 2016, Theresa May succeeded him as Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister Figure 1: Brexit referendum results 2.2.2 By age It is a fact that the older a voter gets, the harder it is for them to get to the polling place 78% of people over 65 years old voted in the 2015 election, compared with 43% of 18-24-year-olds and 54% of 25-34-year-olds Research shows that support for Brexit is quite high for people aged 55 and over compared to those of younger age Those who campaign for Britain to stay in the EU are also mostly young people, in order to protect the benefits they enjoy as citizens of a large union 2.3 The consequence of Brexit Gain:  The UK will have more autonomy in negotiating free trade agreements with non-EU countries, rather than being subject to complicated EU laws and regulations  The UK will no longer have to spend £8.5 billion contributing to the budget of the EU every year  The competition for jobs by British people with immigrants is no longer as fierce as before  Britain will also be seen as a safe haven from financial risks in Europe, which will attract investors and boost the value of the pound  Reduce the rate of terrorism due to the policy of freedom of movement and allowing the immigration of citizens from EU member  Maintain the National cultural identity Lost:  Britain suffered a loss of up to £100 billion - equivalent to 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU's third-largest economy,  GDP declines by 4-10% due to loss of trade and finance, and the pound depreciates by 20%, leading to an increase in spending on essential goods  Nearly million workers lost their jobs as hundreds of businesses left the UK and forced about 1.2 million Britons working in the EU to return home  Britain will lose a market it was once familiar with, and exporting to Europe will now be more difficult than before and more expensive  The UK leaving the EU will strengthen the separatists in Scotland, which will lead to the internal weakening of the UK.(more than 60% of Scotland people vote to stay)  loss of foreign investment from European economies  Britain will still be affected by a series of European political and economic issues, but will no longer retain its position at the negotiating table to decide on issues of great influence  Britain's military influence could also be damaged The United States would no longer see Britain as an important ally if Britain were to separate from Europe HOW WAS THE UK BEEN AFFECTED AFTER BREXIT 3.1 Short-term: (In 2016)  The UK lost its important role as a financial centre and the advantage of being a gateway connecting the world market with Europe (The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day  Replacing all EU regulations is a complex and expensive process for businesses (costs for companies to replace EU trademarks with British ones)  British businesses face new customs regulations 3.2 Long-term (5-year period)  Every Britain loses $3,200 when they no longer receive tax support  Diminished business investment by 11% between 2016 and 2019  The growth of the U.K.'s financial center of London saw only 1.4% in 2018 and was close to zero in 2019  The UK’s share of EU exports fell from 7.1% in 2016 to 6.2% in 2019 while its share of imports fell from 4.4% to 3.9%  Brexit makes it difficult for EU workers to get visas to the UK, causing a reduction in the country's workforce (2020) (animal husbandry lacks slaughterhouse 10 workers, farm owners can't find workers to harvest crops, and the transport industry lacks serious truck drivers)  In the 2020-2021 period, British exports to the EU fell by 45% and imports decreased by 33%  UK FDI fell by 17% in 2020–21  Inflation hits a 13-year high (The UK Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.8% in the 12 months to December 2021, up from 4.6% in the 12 months to November This is the highest 12-month inflation rate since September 2008 and was driven by an increase in housing and transport costs)  In 2021, Brexit reduce UK GDP by 4% (equivalent to £80 billion)  British goods exports in the third quarter of 2021 decreased by 14% compared to the 2020 period The export decline is forecasted to last until 2024 Millions of pounds were transferred to other economies in the EU (more than 900 billion pounds of assets were withdrawn from the UK to the EU This figure is equivalent to 10% of the total value of the banking system in the UK Many insurance companies, and wealth management funds are also in the process of moving with an estimated asset flow of more than 100 billion pounds) 11 HOW BREXIT AFFECTED THE WORLD ECONOMY 4.1 World (generally) EU  Unlike the UK, the trade impact from Brexit on the EU economy is likely to be negative but small The UK is a large trading partner for the EU, with total trade amounting to about 5% of the EU’s GDP EU exporters would lose free access to the UK market if the UK decides on a hard Brexit to leave the European Single Market Additionally, the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy would reduce UK demand for EU goods and services  EU sectors that would experience the biggest impact from Brexit are motor ve- hicles and parts, electronics equipment, and processed foods Motor vehicles, in particular, are the most traded commodities between the EU and the UK The UK is a large auto manufacturer and relies on the EU’s supply chain of raw materials Brexit would hurt EU exports of raw materials such as steel from the German Ruhr valley 4.2 Big-economy Some big-economy states most affected by Brexit are Germany, France, Japan,… These countries export significantly more to the UK than they import from the UK, and Brexit would significantly increase the cost of trade between the UK and these countries For Belgium, a large portion of its imports and exports are dependent on the UK  Germany 12 One of the biggest hits Germany has taken as a result of Brexit has been the change in trading Prior to the Brexit vote, the trading relationship between Germany and the UK was very strong In 2015, German exports into the UK were operating at over €89 billion in 2015 but fell under €79 billion in 2019 Germany is the largest trading nation in the EU in terms of volume; Brexit would remove much of the benefits of the European Single Market for the Germany economy, especially for the automotive industry However, due to the size of its economy, Germany could compensate for this decline in trade by exporting to other countries  France France is the third country most affected by Brexit From an export point of view, the country will record a loss of 1.9 billion euros each year In 2020, France exported 33.6 billion Euros worth of goods to the United Kingdom, making it the 6th largest customer in France In terms of imports of English products, France registers 21.1 billion euros, making the United Kingdom the 7th largest supplier of the country In general, the United Kingdom represents France’s largest trade surplus The trade agreement allows trade to continue without tariffs or quotas But for all that, the UK, with Brexit, is leaving the European common market Thus, since the official entry into force of Brexit, companies must identify themselves with the customs of the other country concerned In trade, companies now work with their partners to establish financial and legal responsibility for goods  Japan The first channel that Brexit could affect the Japanese economy is its impact through international trade The fall in GDP in the UK, and possibly the EU, would discourage exports from Japan to these economies Since exports have been providing a large influence on the performance of the Japanese economy in the past, it is of grave concern The share of exports from Japan to the UK and to the rest of the EU is rather limited: According to the Regional Balance of Payments of Japan for CY2015, exports of goods and services to the UK was 3.5 percent of the total goods and services exports, and that to the rest of the EU was similarly 11.0 percent Since the share of exports of goods and services in GDP is 17.9 percent in CY2015, the share of total exports to the 13 UK is 0.6 percent and to the rest of the EU is 2.0 percent of GDP It means that even an immediate drop of export to the UK and the rest of the EU by percent would still only be a drag on the GDP by 0.1 percent While the direct impact on the Japanese economy through international trade may be limited, the indirect impact through the Asian economies may not be negligible The ratio of exports to GDP in Asian countries are, in general, larger than that of Japan That means, even the shares of UK and rest of the UK in exports is not that different in these countries from Japan, it may have a larger impact on the GDP in these countries This, in turn, can have a significant impact on the Japanese economy since the share of Japanese exports to Asian countries is as high as 47.0 percent in CY2015 A drop of exports to Asian economies by only 0.5 percent can still have an impact on the Japan’s GDP by 0.2 percent This indirect impact through Asia was behind the recession of the Japanese economy when the European economy stagnated in 2012 4.3 VN Over the past 47 years, since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and the UK in 1973, trade cooperation between the UK and Vietnam has been constantly developing Regarding trade, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, by the end of 2019, the total import and export turnover between Vietnam and the UK reached 6.6 billion USD In recent years, the UK has also become Vietnam's 3rd largest trading partner in the European region (after Germany and the Netherlands) However, 'made in Vietnam' products consumed in the UK are much larger than statistics because a significant number of Vietnamese goods are imported through major ports in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, and the Czech Republic before entering the UK Studying the trade relations between Vietnam and the EU and Vietnam and the UK in recent years, it can be seen that the real impact here stems from uncertainties about the future of the EU Because the UK is a huge exporter to the EU and the UK's role in the EU is huge, should the UK leave, the EU will be weaker Therefore, although the direct impacts from the UK's departure are not great, there will be impacts on Vietnam's relations with the EU (the EU is currently Vietnam's 2nd largest export market, accounting for 19.1% of GHG and 6.3% of Vietnam's GHG) 14 15 CONCLUSION Overall the effects of Brexit on the European Union are predominantly negative for both the British and European economy 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