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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU BUSINESS SCHOOL - - MACROECONOMICS GROUP ASSIGNMENT Collecting data and analyzing Vietnam's economic growth in the period 20162021 and the first quarters of 2022 Lecturer: Group: Member: Class: PGS.TS Giang Thanh Long 01 Phạm Viết Lương – 11213571 Nguyễn Hải Anh – 11219017 Đỗ Quang Đăng – Hồ Sĩ Minh – 11219093 Phạm Thị Mỹ Ngọc – 11219014 Lê Kiều Oanh – 11219111 Nguyễn Mai Dương – Vũ Tú Oanh – 11219113 Lê Thu Hường – 11219066 Lê Thị Thùy Dương – 11219014 E-BBA13.1 Ha Noi, October 2022 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics INDEX INDEX - INTRODUCTION - BODY Growth factors - I Investment - 1.1 Investment in the period 2016-2021 1.2 Investment in the first quarters of 2022 -7 State budget and insurance -8 2.1 Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the period 2016-2021 -8 2.2 State budget deficit for the period 2016-2021 2.3 Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the third quarter of 2022 10 2.4 Insurance - 11 Agriculture, forestry, and seafood 13 3.1 Agriculture 13 3.2 Forestry - 18 3.3 Seafood 19 Industry - 20 4.1 II Whole industry - 20 4.2 Manufacturing -21 4.3 Mining and quarrying 22 4.4 Three quarter 23 Transport - 24 5.1 Passenger transport 2016-2021 -25 5.2 Freight transport 2016-2021 -26 5.3 Passenger transport in the first three quarters of 2022 26 5.4 Freight transport in the first three quarters of 2022 27 Economic Growth 27 GDP Growth Rate in the period 2016-2021 27 GDP Growth Rate in the first three quarters of 2022 -28 REFERENCE MATERIAL 30 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics INTRODUCTION In the context of the world and the region, there are factors of advantages and disadvantages intertwined The Asia-Pacific region remains the dynamic development center of the world economy ASEAN's central role of connectivity in regional institutions continues to be confirmed, but challenges remain Peace and development cooperation is a big trend, but extreme nationalism, ethnic and religious conflicts, and terrorist activities continue to increase Major countries strengthen their military power and strategic competition in the region is increasingly fierce Territorial disagreements, especially those in the East Sea, have become fierce and complicated Science and technology develop very rapidly along with globalization and international integration, which has a strong impact on the economic development of countries The implementation of existing free trade agreements and participation in new-generation free trade agreements, along with the formation of the ASEAN Community in 2015 open up many favorable opportunities for development but also set out many difficulties and challenges for the period from 2016-2020 The reemergence of the COVID-19 pandemic has tightened the labor market, disrupted supply chains, and caused - growth to slow down in 2021 Growth will flourish in 2022 when many service activities are active come back The weather conditions are relatively favorable for winter-spring rice to grow and develop, but the complicated developments of the Covid-19 epidemic have greatly affected the production and consumption of agricultural products Livestock production is in recovery but facing difficulties due to the high price of animal feed The development of forestry production, wood processing, and export in the first months of 2022 has many positive signs NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics BODY I Growth factors Investment 1.1 Investment in the period 2016-2021 a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021 (Billions dong) Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 State 557496 594885 619106 634948 728947 713577 Non – State 579700 677510 803300 942449 972230 1720254 Foreign-invested sector 347900 396206 434200 469441 463280 458081 Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016 -2021 2000000 1800000 1600000 Billions dong 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 2016 2017 2018 2019 Axis Title State Non - State Foreign invested sector 2020 2021 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics Figure The chart shows the volatility in investment at current prices by types of ownership in the period 2016-2021 (Billions dong) Overall, the state, non-state, and foreign-investedsectors of the entire society's total investment capital at present prices is modest but has experienced sustained growth from 2016 to 2019 By 2020, due to the effects of the Covid outbreak, realized social investment capital at current prices will increase by 5.7% to VND 2164.5 trillion This is the lowest growth rate between 2011 and 2020 because of the COVID-19 epidemic's detrimental effects on all commercial and manufacturing activities In which the non-state sector reached 972.2 trillion dong, equaling 44.9% and growing by 3.1%; the state sector reached 729 trillion VND, accounting for 33.7% of the total capital and up 14.5% from 2019; and the foreign direct investment sector reached 463.3 trillion dong, equaling 21.4% and declining 1.3% In 2021, the realized investment capital of the whole society at current prices will reach VND 2,891.9 trillion, up 3.2% over the previous year, of which: State capital will reach VND 713.6 trillion, accounting for 24.7% total capital and decreased by 2.9% over the previous year; the non-state sector reached 1720.2 trillion dong, equaling 59.5% and increasing by 7.2%; FDI sector reached 458.1 trillion dong, equaling 15.8% and decreasing 1.1% Although this is the lowest increase in many years, it is a positive result in the context of the complicated developments of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and in the world In short, the Covid pandemic epidemic had a negative impact on the economy, delaying business and production operations and causing investment capital growth, albeit at a very low level b Foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the period 2016-2021 Number of projects Manufacturing Real estate activities Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 2016 1042 62 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 968 1106 1365 828 551 74 95 127 71 63 13 20 15 20 24 514 619 788 1140 722 507 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics vehicles and motorcycles Total registered capital (Mil USD) Manufacturing Real estate activities Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles 2016 16936.9 2355 2017 16437.6 3107.5 2018 19378 8253.3 2019 25196 3860.4 2020 14786.7 4976 2021 22500.7 3607.2 310.4 8374.1 1817.4 1010.6 5185.1 7990.3 1972.1 2213.1 1727.6 2594 1785.3 1426.5 Document continues below Discover more from: Macroeconomics Đại học Kinh tế Quốc… 543 documents Go to course 11 Ơn tậpPremium mơn Kinh tế Vĩ mơ trường đại học Kinh tế… Macroeconomics 100% (12) Premiumvi mo - de thi Trac nghiem 16 kinh te vi mo Macroeconomics 100% (11) Premiumvi mo chuong Trac nghiem Macroeconomics 100% (6) Premium Chuong 27 Macroeconomics 100% (6) Premium Macroeconomics Lecture 17 Note Macroeconomics 100% (6) Premium Đề thi kinh tế vĩ mô FTU NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Macroeconomics Group 01 – Macroeconomics Total registered capital of foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the period 2016-2021 30000 25000 Mil USD 20000 15000 10000 5000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Axis Title Manufacturing Real estate activities Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Figure The chart shows the total registered capital of foreign direct investment projects licensed by Manufacturing; Real estate activities; Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply; Wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles in the period 2016-2021 Over the 2016–2021 period, foreign investors made investments in 19 different industries, although the processing and manufacturing sector has consistently drawn the most of their attention Additionally, industries receiving foreign direct investment are particularly prominent in sectors like real estate, wholesale, retail, or power production and distribution With a total registered capital of 115.2 billion USD, the manufacturing and processing industry was the sector that received the most interest from investors during this time With 5860 projects, this industry has the most investment projects overall With a total 100% (6) NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics registered capital of 26.2 billion USD, real estate came in second The industries that get the most FDI are, generally speaking, those that deal with processing technology, real estate, electricity production, and distribution, etc 1.2 Investment in the first quarters of 2022 a Investment at current prices by types of ownership in the first quarters of 2022 At current exchange rates, the amount of Investment at current prices by types of ownership is projected to be VND 2,130.3 trillion in the first nine months of 2022, an increase of 12.5% over the same period in 2017 This rise is attributable to the manufacturing sector's robust recovery In which the amount of foreign direct investment in Vietnam reached 15.4 billion USD, an increase of 16.3% over the same time period, and the highest level for the first nine months of any year from 2018 to the present Investment at current prices by types of ownership was estimated to be 833.8 trillion dong in the third quarter of 2022 at current prices, an increase of 18.1% over the same period in the previous year This figure includes capital from the state, which increased by 27.8%, the non-state sector, which increased by 11% to reach 491.2 trillion dong, and the foreign direct investment sector, which increased by 34.5% to reach 126.1 trillion dong We can see from the data above that there have been many good improvements in the production, business, and investment situations The majority of industries, fields, and regions are seeing a recovery and growth trend In order to help businesses overcome obstacles, create favorable conditions for them to limit damage, maintain and expand output, and maintain and develop commercial operations, the government is also implementing support packages for socio-economic recovery b Foreign direct investment projects licensed by kinds of economic activity in the first quarters of 2022 In the first nine months of 2022, Vietnam received an estimated 15.43 billion USD in foreign direct investment, an increase of 16.3% over the same period in 2017 The quantity of foreign direct investment capital realized in the last five years has not been higher in nine months than it is now In which the production and distribution of electricity, gas, hot water, steam, and air conditioners reached USD 1.15 billion, NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics accounting for 7.5% of the total realized foreign direct investment capital, while the processing and manufacturing industry reached USD 12.05 billion, accounting for 78.1% There are also definite indicators of improvement when you look at the number of projects that were filed for foreign investment in the first nine months of 2022: 1,355 new projects around the nation have received investment registration certificates, an increase of 11.8% from the previous period 769 projects, up 13.4%, are registered to adjust investment capital during the year 2021 This unmistakably confirms that foreign investors have faith in Vietnam's business environment, view it as a safe and alluring investment destination, and continue to increase investment when Vietnam adopts a new policy to lure investors and push for the economy's reopening following almost two years of restrictions due to the Covid-19 epidemic State budget and insurance 2.1 Accumulation of state budget revenue and expenditure in the period 2016-2021 Figure The chart shows the total state budget revenue and expenditure as of December 31, 2021 and the years 2016,2017,2018,2019,2020 (Trillion VND) NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Coffee 1460.8 Tea 1033.6 Pepper 216.4 Group 01 – Macroeconomics 1577.2 1616.3 1686.8 1763.5 1845 972 994.2 1017.5 1045.6 1073 252.6 262.7 264.8 270.2 288.2 Total production of industrial crops increased steadily during this period In general, all industrial crops increase their annual output, except for cashew and tea In 2017, cashew nuts decreased by 29.3%, tea production decreased by 6% compared to 2016 After years, the largest products in terms of output, rubber increased by 22.85%, coffee increased by 26.3% and tea increased by 3.8% Obviously, coffee is still a potential industrial crop bringing abundant supply to our country The output of some major industrial crops in the first nine months of 2022 increased over the same period in 2021, of which: Tea buds reached 891.9 thousand tons, up 0.7%; rubber reached 841.3 thousand tons, up 3.2%; pepper reached 267.6 thousand tons, up 0.5% c Fruit trees Output of fruit trees in the period 2016-2021 8000 7000 6000 million tons 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2016 2017 banana logan 2018 mango lychee, rambutan 16 2019 oranges, tangerines grapefruit 2020 2021 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics Figure 10 Show the output of fruit trees in the period 2016-2021 (million tons) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 banana 1977 2066.2 2095.6 2194.2 2267.5 2346.9 mango 728.1 745.5 791.8 839 892.7 999.6 oranges, tangerines 806.9 957.9 1075 1220 1359.7 1784.7 logan 503 499.3 543.7 528 568.2 607.3 lychee, rambutan 648.4 562.9 731.8 617.8 636.6 679 grapefruit 500.3 571.3 653.7 818.9 932 1034.7 Fruit trees have a much faster increase in production over the years than industrial trees Although there was still a significant decrease in the production of lychee, rambutan in 2017 (down 13.2% compared to 2016) and 2019 (15.58% compared to 2018) and longan in 2017 and 2019, the rest of the fruits All recorded growth Banana is currently the fruit tree with the largest amount of production, up 18.7% after years Besides, the output of oranges and tangerines (up 121.2%) and the output of pomelos (up 106.8%) The output of some fruit trees in the first months of 2022 increased quite well: Bananas reached 1,832.5 thousand tons, up 4.7% over the same period last year; oranges reached 989.6 thousand tons, up 10.1%; mango reached 812.4 thousand tons, up 3.3%; longan reached 531.7 thousand tons, up 3.5%; pomelo reached 527.8 thousand tons, up 6% Dragon fruit alone reached 701.1 thousand tons, down 9.6% due to the reduced selling price and low export volume, so people did not take care of it; Many dragon fruit orchards have reached old age and people have not replanted them d Breed 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 buffalo(millions) 2.52 2.5 2.42 2.39 2.33 2.26 cow (millions) 5.5 5.65 5.8 6.06 6.23 6.36 17 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics pig (millions) 29.07 27.4 28.15 19.61 22.03 23.53 poultry (millions) 361.7 385.5 409 481.1 512.7 526.3 In general, the number of cows and poultry always increases year by year, although there are years of disease outbreaks that make the livestock industry complicated, while the number of buffalo is still slowly decreasing Although the number of pigs decreased in 2017 due to the low pork price regulation in the consumer market, the scale of livestock production narrowed (down 5.7% compared to 2016) From 2018 onwards, the livestock industry changed from small, dispersed to concentrated according to the farm model, causing pig farming to recover significantly In 2019, the number of pigs dropped a record (down 30.3% compared to 2018) due to the occurrence of African swine fever, but recovered in the following years Animal husbandry in the first quarters of 2022 is generally stable, the outbreak of dermatitis is gradually controlled, but the risk of recurrence is still high Local authorities and specialized agencies still need to continue to implement solutions for disease prevention and control, well-organize vaccination; monitor, detect and promptly handle newly arising outbreaks; strictly handle cases of illegal transportation, and trading of buffaloes and cows of unknown origin The rate of increase/decrease in the number of cattle and poultry at the end of September 2022 compared to the same time last year 3.2 Forestry newly planted forest (thousand ha) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 273.8 292.2 282.1 267.9 269.9 290 18 NATIONAL ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY NEU Business school E-BBA13.1 class Group 01 – Macroeconomics damaged forest (thousand ha) 4.50 1.5 0.9 3.3 1.5 2.01 burnt forest (ha) 3320.8 471.7 293.7 2716.5 645.3 1229 cleared forest (ha) 1198.7 1043.9 616 596.1 819 786 harvested timber 12633.2 14181.8 15298.9 16352 17178.9 18375.3 (thousand m3) Timber production has increased steadily year by year averaging about 7% per year Only in 2020, the rate of exploitation decreased due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the consumption chain of wood processing products (up 5.2% compared to 2019) The area of new bare forest fluctuates around 280 thousand hectares, only in 2017 recorded the largest afforestation area of 292.2 thousand hectares Wildfires caused by heat caused great damage in 2016, 2019 and 2021, but the largest was still in 2016 with 3320.8 hectares of forest burned, and damage from deforestation was also the largest this year with 1198 of forests were cut down 2018 recorded the least number of forests being cut down in years with 0.9 thousand of forest damaged Generally, in the first nine months of 2022, the area of newly concentrated planted forests is estimated at 191.2 thousand hectares, up 4.1% over the same period last year [1], down 62.2% over the same period last year, of which the burnt forest area was 24.5 ha, down 98.3%; the area of forest cut and cleared was 863.4 ha, down 1.6% 3.3 Seafood 19
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