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Risk Management Process
Definition of Risk Management Process
Risk management is the systematic approach to identifying, analyzing, and responding to potential risks This process includes preparing for risks, developing response plans, and continuously monitoring changes in risk levels Effective risk management requires a clear understanding of key issues to ensure comprehensive risk handling.
How to decrease the effects of the risk event
What may be done in anticipation of an event
What to do in the case of an occurrence (contingency plans)
To develop a robust Risk Management Plan (RMP), it is essential to incorporate comprehensive details that outline the program's objectives, goals, tools, reporting mechanisms, communication processes, and the roles and responsibilities of the organization The RMP should also encompass relevant risk management definitions, guidelines, and assumptions, along with identified risk categories and methodologies for risk identification and analysis Additionally, it must define the organizational structures for effective risk management and include appropriate documentation to support the process.
Benefits of Risk Management Process
Effective risk management enhances project success by adopting a proactive and positive approach, enabling project managers to develop contingencies that improve cost, performance, and progress By minimizing the likelihood and severity of potential risks, proper risk management significantly boosts the chances of meeting project requirements and achieving overall success.
Risk Management Process
The Risk Management Process includes 4 steps:
Identify Risk: Analyzing and examining each important technical process and the program areas to find and record any potential risks.
Risks Assessment: The process of analyzing each risk that has been recognized to determine its likelihood, the severity of its effects on the project, and how to control it.
Risk response development involves identifying, analyzing, and formulating solutions to mitigate risks to an acceptable level within program constraints and goals This process includes outlining necessary actions, establishing timelines, assigning responsibilities, and estimating associated costs.
Risk Response Control: A process that performs risk management, monitors and evaluates the effectiveness of risk response measures, and provides inputs for adjusting risk management and plans.
Step 1: Risk Identification
Risk Breakdown Structure
The risk breakdown structure (RBS) for the project "Inkwell" begins at level 0 with the project name, followed by categorizing risks into four main areas: Project Management, External, Technical, and Organization At level 2, the focus shifts to the specific risks associated with the project, while level 3 identifies the actual risks within those categories.
RBS Coding table
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 RBS code
Market Customer Dissatisfaction with design 2.2.1
Figure 1: The Risk Breakdown Structure
Quality Product not meeting standard 3.2.1
Team Poor team communication and coordination 4.2.1
Step 2: Risk Assessment
Conditions for Impact Scales of a Risk on Major Project Objectives
Impact scales provide a systematic approach to evaluate the potential effects of specific risks on key project objectives Project managers and stakeholders utilize these scales to gauge the severity of risks and make informed decisions regarding risk management and mitigation strategies The risk impact scale encompasses various factors essential for comprehensive risk assessment.
Assessing the likelihood of risks significantly impacting a project is crucial for effective project management The project manager must evaluate and assign a probability score ranging from very low to very high to each identified risk This systematic approach helps prioritize risks and implement appropriate mitigation strategies.
Project managers must set definitions of impact in terms of very low, low, medium, high, and very high impact levels according to objectives (time, cost, scope, and quality).
Individual risks significantly influence the successful delivery of a project If a specific risk leads to a one-month delay or an additional cost of $100,000, it is categorized as having a high impact Additionally, risks that render the project's final deliverable essentially ineffective are classified as having a "very high" impact on quality and scope.
Minor Areas of Scope Affected
Major Areas of Scope Affected
Scope Reduction Unacceptable to Customer
Project End Item is Effectively Useless
Only Very Demanding Applications are Affected
Quality Reduction Requires Customer Approval
Quality Reduction Unacceptable to Customer
ProjectEnd Item isEffectivelyUseless
Risk Severity Matrix
A probability and impact matrix is a qualitative risk analysis tool that evaluates the likelihood and consequences of identified risks using a numerical scale This method helps prioritize risks and develop management plans by ranking each risk's probability and impact The outcomes can be aligned with the organization's risk-reaction guidelines, allowing for effective categorization of risks based on their scores Typically, risks are classified into three categories according to their risk scores, guiding the organization's response strategies.
In risk assessment, the red zone signifies high-risk ratings with significant likelihood and impact, while the yellow zone indicates risks that possess a somewhat high impact and likelihood Conversely, the green zone represents risks that generally exhibit low impact, probability, or both Understanding these zones is crucial for effective risk management.
A score of less than 5 shows a low risk for the given target.
A yellow or moderate risk to the objective is indicated by any score between 5 and 10.
Any score greater than 10 indicates a red or severe risk to the goal.
Risk Assessment Form
RBS code Likelihood Impact Detection difficulty
CHAPTER 3: RISK RESPONSE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINGENCY
Step 3: Risk Response Development and Contingency Planning
Mitigate: Develop realistic schedules with buffer time for uncertainties
Closely track progress indicators and milestones
Add resources to critical path activities to accelerate work
Key planning milestones are consistently missed or delayed
Project manager, Leaders of departments
Mitigate: Regularly monitor expenses, and have contingency funds available.
Use low cost resources for substitution Negotiate discounts or scope reduction with vendors
Signals which notify the allowed budget will be exceeded
Mitigate: Implement tracking mechanisms to identify resources wasted in real-time and take corrective actions.
Investigating the root causes of wasting and implementing corrective measures.
Actual expenditures exceeding the planned budget significantly
1.2.3 Avoid: Develop flexible pricing strategies that can be adjusted based on market conditions.
Implement cost- cutting measures and efficiency improvements to maintain
Revenue figures consistently fall short of the established
Sale Dept profitability sales targets
Avoid: Order extra inventory in advance
Promote production of alternative products and change communication plans
Notified by the Logistics and Supply Chain
Transfer: Contact multiple suppliers and apply penalty clauses for late delivery in contracts
Order extra inventory in advance and use alternative transportation modes if needed
Transfer: Employ a variety of suppliers and have a safety stock inventory buffer.
Activate backup supplier and expedite setup and contracting.
Logistics and Supply Chain, Marketing Dept, R&D Dept
Mitigate: Conduct inspection incoming materials and supplier research thoroughly
Manufacture department informs about materials quality
Avoid: Hire designers who understand and empathize with target customers and their needs.
Mitigate: Establish robust quality control processes and testing throughout production.
Mitigate: Conduct regular market research and adjust production and pricing accordingly.
Reduce inventory and offer discounts or promotions to clear stock
Market analysis shows significant change in demand
Mitigating: Diversify marketing channels to mitigate disruption.
Detect events that affect marketing campaigns
Mitigate: Create flexible plans and response scenarios for different regulatory outcomes.
Deploy compliance team to identify required operational changes and costs.
Accelerate any redesign, process changes needed to comply.
2.4.1 Avoid: Schedule production and delivery in advance to avoid peak
Purchase insurance to cover losses due to weather-
Forecasts of potential severe weather conditions that
Project manager weather seasons related disruptions affect operation
Mitigate: Involve stakeholders in the design process and get their feedback and approval at each stage
Implement changes as requested by stakeholders and document the impact on time, cost, and quality
Stakeholder requests change or expresses dissatisfaction with the design
Mitigate: Do prototyping, simulations, analyzing and piloting to validate design.
Revert to the design stage to resolve.
Stakeholder requests change or expresses dissatisfaction with the design
Avoid: Implement robust quality assurance procedures and inspection points throughout manufacturing processes.
Determine root cause and adjust production process
Mitigate: Provide comprehensive training programs on proper tool usage, safety procedures, and equipment maintenance.
Additional safety training or retraining for employees involved.
Mitigate: Provide comprehensive training programs on proper tool usage, safety procedures, and equipment maintenance.
Additional safety training or retraining for employees involved.
Mitigate: Use reliable hardware tools and perform regular maintenance and backup
Hire external experts to fix the problem or provide alternative solutions
Hardware malfunction, error is detected
Mitigate: Use reliable software tools and perform regular maintenance and backup
Hire external experts to fix the problem or provide alternative solutions
Software malfunction, error is detected
Mitigate: Offer opportunities for skill development, career advancement, and clear growth paths for employees.
Prepare for rapid recruitment to fill vacant positions quickly.
When the employee resignation rate exceeds a predetermined
Retain: Promote transparent and effective communication within the
Monitor and resolve conflicts as they arise
Significant increase in employee turnover
HR Dept organization to prevent misunderstandings.
Mitigating: Cross- train employees on critical roles to create redundancy in capabilities Develop retention incentives like bonuses and flexible work arrangements.
Bring on temporary contractors to fill gaps if needed.
Outsource certain tasks to third-party vendors as back up.
When the employee resignation rate exceeds a predetermined
Mitigate: Use clear and consistent communication channels and methods
Implement alternative communication channels or tools with strict supervision.
Noticeable increase in errors, mistakes, or rework
Mitigate: Offer training and skill development opportunities to address skill gaps and enhance employee capabilities.
Evaluate and rotate employees have poor performance to other departments
The results of regular performance appraisals reveal a consistent decline
4.3.1 Avoid: Ensure the project scope is well-
Project manager defined, clear, and agreed upon by all stakeholders. allocation, or objectives continuously expands beyond what was initially defined
Avoid: Implement regular progress monitoring and reporting to identify issues and address them promptly.
Define corrective actions to address issues
The project's scope continuously expands beyond what was initially defined
Avoid: Strict project progress and performance to detect deviations early.
Define specific actions to address issues and regain control over project progress. the project experiences substantial and consistent delays,
Table 3: Risk Response Development and Contingency Planning
Opportunity Management
Risk management involves not just the avoidance or reduction of threats but also the identification and utilization of opportunities These positive risks can significantly enhance the value, scope, quality, and performance of your project.
Opportunities are conditions that can positively influence project objectives, emerging from sources like market trends, customer feedback, and technological advancements They can enhance customer value, boost competitive advantage, reduce costs, and improve efficiency For example, a shift in customer preferences, a new team member with essential skills, or lower prices can all create beneficial opportunities Managing positive risks involves recognizing and evaluating these opportunities for their likelihood and impact, selecting solutions, and preparing backup plans The key distinction between managing risks and opportunities lies in our response strategies The project management industry has identified four specific approaches to effectively capitalize on opportunities.
The exploit strategy focuses on eliminating uncertainty about an opportunity to ensure its successful realization This can involve assigning top employees to urgent projects to accelerate their completion or modifying a design to facilitate the procurement of a component instead of developing it in-house.
Transferring ownership of an opportunity to a more capable party can enhance project success This strategy often involves forming joint ventures or engaging external contractors who are motivated by incentives for ongoing improvement.
Enhance refers to actions taken to increase the likelihood and positive impacts of an opportunity, contrasting with mitigation strategies For instance, choosing a site based on favorable weather conditions or selecting raw materials expected to decrease in cost exemplifies enhancement.
Accepting an opportunity involves being prepared to take advantage of it when it presents itself, without actively seeking it out While it's common to focus on potential downsides, it's equally important to proactively manage and cultivate your opportunities for growth and success.
For our Inkwell project, we prioritize three key strategies to maximize opportunities during our limited operational period around Christmas and New Year By capitalizing on the growing consumer preference for products that support significant causes, such as humanitarian efforts and environmental protection, we can gain a competitive advantage This involves investing in targeted advertisements and making impactful statements on social media and e-commerce platforms to promote our products Additionally, we can collaborate with like-minded partners to further leverage this opportunity To align with our values and maintain cost efficiency, we will focus on simple designs and sustainable materials.
Contingency Funding and Time Buffers
Contingency Funding
Contingency funds are essential for managing both known and unknown risks in a project The timing, location, and amount of these expenditures remain uncertain until a risk materializes There are two main types of contingency funds: budget reserves, which are designated for identified risks and specific project deliverables, and management reserves, which are set aside for unforeseen risks affecting the overall project.
Budget reserves
Budget reserves are allocated within the baseline budget or work breakdown structure for specific project segments, typically ranging from 3 to 5 percent of the budget baseline in the case of Inkwell These reserves are established by calculating the costs of approved contingency or recovery plans to mitigate risks associated with certain tasks It's crucial for the entire team to be aware of the budget reserve, as both the project manager and team members responsible for executing the project components share the responsibility for its allocation If risks do not materialize, the funds are drawn from the budget reserve, leading to a gradual decrease in the reserve amount over time.
Management reserves
Management reserves are essential for covering significant unanticipated risks in a project and are established after identifying budget reserves These funds are managed by the project manager and the project "owner," who can be either internal (top management) or external Typically calculated using historical data and assessments of the project's uniqueness and complexity, it is advisable to allocate 10 to 15 percent of the budget baseline to these reserves This allocation ensures that there are sufficient funds to address risks that are beyond the project's control.
A unique situation is adding technical contingencies to the management reserve.
Innovative processes or products often come with potential technical risks that need to be identified To mitigate these risks, a backup strategy is essential, as the success of the innovation cannot be guaranteed Control over these risks lies outside the project manager's purview, leading to the establishment of technical reserves within the management reserve, which are overseen by the owner or top management The decision regarding when to implement the contingency plan and utilize reserve funds is made collaboratively by the owner and project manager, with the expectation that these funds may remain unused.
Budget Baseline Budget Reserve Project Budget
Table 4: Inkwell’s Contingency Fund Estimate
Time buffers
Time buffers serve as protective durations incorporated into project schedules to mitigate the impact of potential delays, with their length determined by the project's level of uncertainty Riskier projects necessitate a greater allocation of time, ensuring that critical phases receive additional time to accommodate unforeseen challenges.
Adding buffers to activities with high-risk
Merge activities that are prone to delays because one or more tasks before them are running behind schedule
Merge activities that are prone to delays because one or more tasks before them are running behind schedule
Non-critical activities they should be completed to lessen the possibility that they will start another critical path
And activities requiring scarce resources that should be completed to guarantee that they are available when needed.
When the overall schedule is uncertain, buffers are occasionally added to the end of a project This buffer typically needs top management approval, just like management reserves
Define the product portfolio and specifications 7 Research and
Design the themes, features and layouts of the stationery products
“Christmas and New Year” season
Determine packaging materials and design
Purchasing raw material and supplies for manufacturing
Place orders and confirm delivery dates 9 2
Receive, inspect and store the raw materials and supplies
Produce the stationery products according to the specifications, standard and design
Test and validate the quality and functionality of the stationery products
Reviews and verifies specifications, monitors operations, conducts sampling and visual tests, removes products with defects
Package the product according to the standards
Label and barcode the stationery products for inventory and tracking purpose
Identify and select the distribution channels and partners
Negotiate the prices, terms and conditions with the distribution channels and partners
Monitor and manage the inventory and sales of the stationery products
Collect and analyze the feedback from customers, stakeholders, suppliers, vendors, distribution channels, partners
Compare the actual performance with the planned performance 3 Research and
Identify the SWOT of the project 4 Research and
Prepare and present the final project report and lessons learned 8 Research and
Table 5: Inkwell’s time buffers for important activities
Step 4: Risk Response Control
Monitoring, tracking, and reporting risk
Project managers need to monitor risks just like they track project processes Risk assessment and updating needs to be part of every status meeting and progress report system
Our project team needs to be on constant alert for new, unforeseen risks.
Fostering an open organization environment
We need to establish an environment in which participants feel comfortable raising concerns and admitting mistakes
The norm should be that mistakes are acceptable, hiding mistakes is intolerable.
Problems should be embraced not denied
Each member of our team should be encouraged to identify problems and new risks.
Repeating risk identification/Assessment Exercises
Risk profiles should be reviewed to test to see if the original responses held.
Relevant stakeholders should be brought into the discussion and the risk register needs to be updated.
Project managers should touch base with them regularly or hold special stakeholder meetings to review the status of risks in the project
3.5.4 Assigning and documenting responsibility for managing risk
Effective risk management in a project requires that each identified risk is collaboratively assigned by the project owner, project manager, and the contractor or responsible individual for the specific work package.
It is best to have the line person responsible approve the use of budget reserve funds and monitor their rate of usage
To effectively utilize management reserve funds, line personnel should proactively assess the additional costs and resources necessary for project completion Involving these team members in the process enhances awareness of the management reserve, promotes careful monitoring of its usage rate, and provides early alerts for potential risks.
If risk management is not formalized, responsibility and responses to risk will be ignored
Effective risk management is crucial for the success of the Inkwell project, requiring project managers and team members to remain vigilant in identifying and monitoring potential threats Regular risk assessments should be integrated into status meetings, ensuring that any new risks are promptly analyzed and incorporated into the overall risk management strategy.
Risk Descr Likelihood Impact Owner Responses Contingency
Process delayed Moderate Very high Planning dept.
Closely track progress indicators and milestones
Project manager, Leaders of departments
Resources waste Low High Finance
Implement tracking mechanismt o identify resources wasted in real-time and take corrective actions.
Excessive spending Low Very high Finance
Regularly monitor expenses, and have contingency funds available.
Very low Very high Supplier Employ a variety of suppliers and have a safety stock
Logistics and Supply Chain, Marketing Dept, R&D Dept
Very low Moderate Market research
Conduct regular market research and adjust production and pricing accordingly.
Legislation change Very low High Legal
Create flexible plans and response scenarios for different regulatory outcomes.
Moderate Very high HR Cross-train employees on critical roles to create redundancy in capabilities.
Develop retention incentives like bonuses and flexible work
Ineffective performance Very low Very high Process
Implement regular progress monitoring and reporting to identify issues and address them promptly
Change management is a crucial aspect of the risk control process in project management It is common for project plans to deviate from initial expectations, making it challenging for project managers to manage and adapt to these changes Various sources contribute to project changes, including input from customers, owners, project managers, team members, and unforeseen risk events.
Most changes easily fall into three categories:
Scope changes in the form of design or additions represent big changes; for example, customer requests for a new feature or a redesign that will improve the product.
Implementation of contingency plans, when risk events occur, represents changes in baseline costs and schedules.
Improvement changes suggested by project team members represent another category.
Change management systems involve reporting, controlling, and recording changes to the project baseline.
Benefits of Change Control Systems
Inconsequential changes are discouraged by the formal process.
Costs of changes are maintained in a log.
The integrity of the WBS and performance measures is maintained. Allocation and use of budget and management reserve funds are tracked. Responsibility for implementation is clarified
The effect of changes is visible to all parties involved.
Implementation of change is monitored.
Scope changes will be quickly reflected in baseline and performance measures
All eighth benefits help us to control risk more efficiency
Change the supplier of paper material from
High impact on cost, quality, and schedule
Negotiate contract with XYZ and update budget and schedule
Change the production process from manual to automated
High impact on cost, schedule, and quality Approved
Purchase and install new equipment and train staff
Change the design of the greeting cards from horizontal to vertical orientation
Low impact on cost and schedule, moderate impact on quality
Review the design changes and get approval from stakeholder
Change the product pricing from fixed to variable
Low impact on cost and schedule, high impact on revenue
Conduct a market analysis and a customer survey
On October 16, 2023, a high rejection was noted regarding changes made until October 20, 2023, emphasizing the importance of adhering to the original project scope The project should remain focused on developing and purchasing digital products rather than stationery items, as any deviation can significantly impact scope, cost, schedule, and quality It is crucial to deliver the agreed-upon products to ensure project success.
Change the team composition by adding two more graphic designers
Moderate impact on cost and schedule, high impact on quality Approved
Reallocate resources and adjust the work breakdown structure and the project structure
To enhance project effectiveness, it's crucial to identify potential risks and implement proactive strategies to reduce their likelihood and impact By doing so, Inkwell can significantly elevate the overall quality and outcomes of the project.
Effective risk management involves identifying, assessing, and monitoring risks while developing response and contingency plans Implementing preventive measures is crucial for minimizing the effects of unforeseen events Strong communication among team members and departments enhances the ability to detect and respond to risks swiftly Consequently, managing human resource risks significantly influences project efficiency A comprehensive risk mitigation strategy is vital for delivering high-quality stationery products on time and within budget, while also reducing the impact of potential risks throughout the project.
The stationery market faces intense competition driven by evolving trends, technological innovations, and shifting consumer preferences To effectively manage project risks in this industry, a comprehensive strategy is essential, encompassing rigorous risk management, financial oversight, supply chain efficiency, quality assurance, market insight, human resource management, and environmental considerations By implementing robust risk management principles, Inkwell can navigate the intricate risk landscape of the stationery sector, adopt a proactive approach, and enhance the chances of successful project outcomes.
1 Effective strategies for exploiting opportunities - PMI Available at: https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/effective-strategies-exploiting- opportunities-7947