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Acceleration / 99 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon require low and moderately skilled workers are being computerized, tomorrow it will be jobs performed by highlyskilledandeducatedworkers.Indeed,thisisalready happening among information technology professionals, where jobs that once requiredcollege degreesare simply vanishingintothecomputernetwork. Greenspan’ssuggestedsolutionisthatwedramatical- ly improve our elementary and secondary education sys- tems.WhilethatisagoalthatIcertainlysupport,theidea thatitwillsolvetheproblemissimplynotarealisticex- pectation.Even ifwe couldwavea magicwandand im- prove educationin theUnited States overnight,it would obviouslybeyearsbeforethosechildrenenterthework- force.Inthemeantime,computertechnologywillcontin- ueitsrelentlessadvance.ThesubtitleofChairmanGreen- span’sbookis“AdventuresinaNewWorld.”However,it appearsthat,likemosteconomists,hehasfailedtoperce- ivejusthownewthatworldreallyis. The reality is that the Luddite fallacy amounts to nothing more than a historical observation. Since things haveworkedoutsofar,economistsassumethattheywill always work out. For centuries, machines have conti- nuously become more sophisticated, and as a result, the productivity—and therefore the wages—of the average worker have increased. It stands to reason that if this processcontinuesindefinitely,atsomepointthemachines willbecomeautonomous, and the worker willno longer addvalue.Longbeforethatextremityisreached,however, theremustcomeatippingpointatwhichjoblossesfrom automation begin to overwhelm any positive impact on THELIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 100 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon employment from lower prices and increased consumer demand. (For more on this, please see pages 131-138 in Chapter 3). In light of unprecedented, geometrically ad- vancingcomputertechnology, theLuddite“fallacy” does notreallylookallthatfallacious. A More Ambitious View of Future Technologi- cal Progress: The Singularity Inthis book, I have been quite conservativeintermsof projectingwheretechnologymaytakeus.Ihavespokenof robotsthatmayeventuallymanagetostockstoreshelves and of other robots that might be remotely controlled fromlowwagecountries.Ihavenotspokenofarmiesof marauding, humanoid robots, orofintelligentcomputers taking control of nuclear weapons. Partly, the reason is thatIwanttocomeacrossasverydowntoearth.Iwant you to take this book seriously. A second reason is that none of thosescience fiction-like scenarios areatall ne- cessary. Technology—if we do not prepare for it—does not need to directly or physically attack us to cause us greatharm.Theonlythingitneedstodoistakeourjobs. Nonetheless,IwouldberemissifIdidn’tincludethe fact that many extremely well regarded individuals with deepexperienceinscienceandtechnologyhaveafarmore ambitious view of what is ultimately possible. World- renowned cosmologist and author of the book, A Brief History of Time, Stephen Hawking, has said, “Computers arelikelytoovertakehumansinintelligenceatsomepoint in the next hundred years.” 35 Inventor and author Ray Kurzweil,whoreceivedtheNationalMedalofTechnology Acceleration / 101 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon fromPresidentClintonin1999,isfarmoreoptimisticand predicts that machines will achieve true intelligence by 2029. Kurzweilisalsooneoftheleadingproponentsofthe technologicalsingularity,whichheexpectstooccurbytheyear 2045. 36 This concept, which was originally introduced by the mathematician and author Vernor Vinge, 37 suggests that at some point in the future, technological progress willsimplyexplodeincomprehensibly.Basically,thingswill justgetawayfromus.Ifyoulookatthenowfamiliarchart that follows, thetechnological singularity would occurat somepointclosetowherethelinebecomesnearlyvertical. Beyondthispoint,itisjuststraightup. The Technological Singularity Manypeoplehavepostulatedthatthesingularitywill bebroughtonwhenmachinesfinallybecomesmarterthan us, andthen applythathigher intelligence to thetask of Technology Time Singularity THELIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 102 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon designing even better versions of themselves. After that, humanbeingswouldnolongerbeabletounderstandthe progresstakingplace. It seems obvious that if the singularity does indeed takeplace,nearlyallofuscouldpotentiallybeoutofajob. People with PhDs from top universities could well find themselves in the same boat as autoworkers in Detroit. Howcouldtheaveragepeoplewhomakeupthebulkof ourpopulationearnalivinginaworldinwhichmachines weresmarterandmorecapablethaneventhemostintelli- genthumans? Aside from the issue of providing essential support forthepopulation,thesingularityintroducesamorebasic economicparadox.Inafree marketeconomy,nothingis producedunlessthereisdemand—and“demand”ineco- nomic terms means desire combined with the ability to pay.Thereisnoincentivetoproduceproductsifthereare noconsumerswithsufficientdiscretionaryincometopur- chase those products. This istrueevenif intelligent ma- chinessomedaybecomesuper-efficientproducers.Ifaver- age—or even exceptional—human beings are unable to find employment within their capabilities, then how will they acquire the income necessary to create the demand thatinturndrivesproduction?Ifweconsiderthesingular- ityinthiscontext,thenisitreallysomethingthatwillnec- essarilypushusforwardexponentially?Orcoulditinac- tualityleadtorapideconomicdecline? * * Thetechnologistswhospeculateaboutthesingularitydon’tseemtoo concerned about this problem. Perhaps they assume that the super- intelligentmachinesofthefuturewillfigureallthisoutforus.How- Acceleration / 103 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Inthisbook,wewon’tagainstrayintothismorespe- culativearena(exceptinthelastsectionsoftheAppendix). Theideaspresentedinthisbookdonotdependontheoc- currenceofthetechnologicalsingularity.Thestandardwe have set is much lower: we areconcerned only withthe possibilitythatmachineswillbecomecapableofperform- ingmostaverage,routinejobs.Thesingularityrepresentsa far more extreme case. It’s fair to say, however, that if something along the lines ofthetechnologicalsingularity istooccur,wemayfirstneedaparadigmshiftintheway oureconomyworks—oratleastsomechangesinoureco- nomic architecture. Otherwise, we will be in for quite a shock. A War on Technology Inthischapterwehaveseenthatcomputersareincreasing in both power and number at a simply astonishing rate. We’velookedatclearevidencethatshowswehaveessen- tiallyhittheceilingintermsofwhatwecanexpectfrom futureincreasesinthecapabilityofaveragehumanbeings. We’ve also looked at a variety of specific job types and technologiesandshownhowautomationislikelytohavea much broader impact than many of us might imagine— andalsohowthejobsofmanyhighlypaidandhighlyedu- ever, if something other than consumer demand drives production, then we no longer have a market economy; we will then have a plannedeconomy.TheSovietUnion,ofcourse,didn’thaveintelligent machines—but they did have lots ofvery intelligent mathematicians staffinganagencycalledGosplan,whichattemptedtofigurethingsout. Let’shopethemachineswilldoabetterjob.(Pleasesee“TheTech- nologyParadox”intheAppendixformoreonthis.) THELIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 104 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon cated workers may be among the most vulnerable. Let’s lookagainattheassumptionwesetouttotestatthebe- ginningofthischapter: Technologywillnotadvancetothepointwherethebulkofjobsper- formed by typical people will be automated before the year 2089. Priortothatyear,theeconomywillalwayscreatejobsthatarewithin thecapabilitiesofthevastmajorityofthehumanpopulation. Atthispoint,itseemsverydifficulttosupportthisas- sumption. Most of the trends we have reviewed in this chapter are likelyto come into play long before ourcutoff dateof2089.Itisverypossiblethatevenadvancednano- technologywouldbeavailablewithinthattimeframe.We therefore cannot escapethe conclusion that we will very likelyhavetodealwiththeimpactofacross-the-boardau- tomationinour lifetimes, orat theveryleast, within the lifetimesofourchildren. Ifwedonothaveastrategy—andspecificpolicies— in place to deal with this issue before its full impact ar- rives,theoutcomewillbedecidedlynegative.Asthetrend towardsystemicjoblossincreases,itisquiteeasytofore- see a number of possible ramifications. I have already mentionedthelikelihood ofadropincollegeenrollment and a migration toward safer trade jobs. Another trend thatwillsurelyoccurasrecognitionsetsinwillbeagener- al“warontechnology.”Workersinvirtuallyeveryoccupa- tion—evenmanyofthosewhothemselvesworkintech- nical fields—will desperately, and quite understandably, attempttoprotecttheirlivelihoods. Acceleration / 105 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Wecanexpectsubstantialpressureongovernmentto somehowrestricttechnologicalprogressandjobautoma- tion.Itispossiblethattherewillbeasignificant,last-ditch resurgence in the power of organized labor. Workers in jobs and industries that are not now organized will very possiblyturntounionsinanattempttoexertsomepower overtheirownfutures.Theresultislikelytobesomewhat slowedtechnicalprogress,workstoppages,andsignificant economicandsocialdisruptions. The economists who believe in the premise of the Ludditefallacyarenotwrongaboutonething:technologi- cal advancement is the only thing thatcan, over the long term,driveustowardcontinuingeconomicgrowth.Con- tinuingtechnicalprogressisouronlyhopeforawealthier societyinthefuture. We know that in the coming decades, we will face enormousnewchallenges.Mostnotablewillbetherelated issuesofincreasingenergyscarcityandclimatechange.We arelikelytofaceawide-rangingimpactonclimate,agricul- tureandevengeography—includingthepossibilityofris- ingoceanlevelsthatcouldresultinhumanitariandisasters ofunimaginableproportions.Asweareallaware,current- lytheeffortstomitigateglobalwarmingandtheotherim- portant environmental impacts from burning fossil fuels areenjoying verylimitedsuccess.Theunfortunatereality isthatwemayultimatelybeforcedtoacceptthefactthat wewillfail—atleasttosomedegree—inourquesttostop climate change. But the costs associated with somehow adapting to those changes will be astronomical. At the same time, reservesofoil,natural gas, and in the longer THELIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 106 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon runevencoal,aregoingtobedepleted.Howcanwehope toface thesechallengesifoureconomyisindecline and the bulk of our population is focused almost exclusively onthecontinuityofindividualincomes? Asimilarpointcanbemaderegardingtheglobalwar onpoverty.Howcanwehopetowinthiswar,ifweour- selvesarenotprosperous?Weknowthatpovertyisoneof the primary drivers of war, conflict and terrorism. In a long-term stagnant or declining economic environment, theseproblemswillonlygrow. Theanswercannotbetoattempttohalttechnological progress. The problem is not with technology; it is with our economic system, and it lies specifically in that sys- tem’sinabilitytocontinuethrivinginthenewrealitythatis being created. It will be extraordinarily difficult to make materialchangestothatsystembecauseithasservedusso well,forsolong.Nonetheless,inthefinalchaptersofthis book,IwillsuggestsomechangesthatIbelievewillallow us to move from fearing technology to leveraging it as neverbeforeandthendeployingitagainstthechallenges wewill face. Before then, however,we must move from ourtunnelsimulationback intotherealworld.Therewe willseethatthesituationisprobablyfarmoredangerous andperhapsmoreimmediatethanwehaveyetimagined. CopyrightedMaterial– Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Chapter 3 DANGER In the first chapter of this book, our tunnel simulation showedthat,aslargenumbersofworkerswereautomated out of their jobs, theeconomy would eventuallygo into declinebecauseeachworkerisalsoaconsumer(andmay supportotherconsumers)inthemassmarket.Inthereal world, it seems very likely that the automation process wouldbea fairlygradualone.Can weassume,therefore, thattheeconomicimpactofthistransitionwouldalsobe gradual in nature and might not be apparent until some pointinthedistantfuture?Toanswerthisquestion,let’s lookathowmarketsworkintherealworld. The Predictive Nature of Markets Oneofthemoreinterestingdevelopmentstoariseoutof theInternethasbeentheappearanceofonlineprediction markets. A predictionmarket is really just another name forabettingmarket,anditoperatesinasimilarfashionto thefuturesmarketsthatallowtraderstoplacebetsonthe futuredirectionofthingslikeoilpricesandstockmarket indexes.Prediction markets, such as theIowa Electronic Markets(IEM) andIntrade,allowparticipantstobetreal THELIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 108 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon money on things like elections, economic developments (suchasrecessions),orspecificeventsin thebusinessor entertainmentworlds. While prediction markets are specifically set up to predict future events, we know that we can expand this ideaandsaythatallfreemarketsare,inessence,prediction markets.Ifyoubuyaparticularcompany’sstock,thenyou areplacingabetthat,inthefuture,thatstockwilltradeat ahighervalue.Collectively,themillionsofparticipantsin theworld’sstockmarketsoftenactasasortofpredictive barometer for the economy as a whole. Historically, the U.S.stockmarkethasoftenanticipatedrecessions bysix monthsorso.Likewise,recoveryfromarecessionisvery oftenprecededbyariseinthestockmarket. This predictive feature also applies to all the other various markets with which we interact, including the housingmarket,thejobmarket,andthemassmarketfor goods and services. The reason is quite obvious. People arerational beingsand every individual, to some degree, incorporateshisorherexpectationsforthefutureintohis orhercurrentactions.Ifyouexpectthatyouwillreceivea largesumofmoneyatsomepointinthenearfuture,you areverylikelytobeginspendingsomeofthatmoneyeven beforeyouactuallyreceiveit. Nowwecanbegintoseeapotentialproblem.Asau- tomationbeginstoeliminatejobsinanincreasinglywide rangeofindustriesandoccupations,itsimpactsareclearly notgoingtobekeptasecret.Peoplewillbecomeawareof what is happening—even ifit is notofficially recognized bygovernments—andtheywillbegintomodifytheircur- [...]... @ Amazon THE LIGHTSINTHE TUNNEL / 114 saving Consumers inthe United States are expected to continue powering the factories in China and other developing nations even as the jobs from which those consumers derive their income evaporate.* This is clearly unsustainable This danger—together with the fact that the benefits from offshoring inthe third world are likely to be only transitory since automation... exports, the major factor propping up the Chinese economy is the continuing enormous investment in infrastructure Clearly however, this level of spending is not sustainable indefinitely Many analysts have called for China to stimulate its domestic demand in order to help make up for this decline in demand for exports In reality, this will be very difficult The majority of the products produced in Chinese... example The question is whether that business model is sustainable I would argue that, especially in the automotive market, the company will ultimately have to introduce more automation to meet the quality standards required in export markets It’s also worth noting that such a business model could be sustained inthe long run only if wages in China remain extremely low indefinitely If that is the case,... dwindles inthe West—and certainly if the catastrophic event described at the beginning of this chapter occurs—then this economic perpetual motion machine is going to collapse Given all this, what can we really say about the future of China? Nearly a fourth of the world’s population lives in China; therefore, there is no doubt that this country will continue to have significant, and perhaps increasing,... irreversible elimination of jobs.* The reality is that the manufacturing sector is following the same path In her book, Rivoli also cites evidence showing that many of the jobs lost inthe U.S textile industry are in fact due to machine automation rather than globalization, and that China, in spite of its low wage Cotton farming in poor countries, of course, remains highly labor intensive However, this should... cannot win If I am even partly correct in this projection, then the ramifications for the rest of the world will be enormous In the West, we look to the impending economic might of China with mixed emotions On the one hand, we worry about all that power residing in a country that may well continue to be essentially undemocratic for the foreseeable future On the other hand, many of our hopes for the future... disruptive force inthe global automotive market at some point in the not too distant future For all this, automation will be essential The large industrial corporations in the United States, Germany and Japan that provide this automation technology are certainly salivating at the prospect of the future market that China will provide The Chinese government, meanwhile, is focused on insuring that as much... talking about here is really not the same as what occurs inthe normal business cycle In a typical recession, many consumers will also cut back on spending as they worry about losing their jobs, and this will tend to deepen the downturn However, this worry is predominantly a short-term concern because people realize that, inthe long run, when the economy recovers, businesses will have to again begin... unemployment problem and the Chinese propensity to save rather than consume However, local consumption will be increasingly essential because the primary incentives which drive the private sector to locate manufacturing in countries like China are likely to shift dramatically inthe coming decades The Future of Manufacturing Recent years have seen a mass migration of manufacturing to developing countries Low... 118 take a per-capita income that is somewhat comparable to that of developed nations and then multiply it by some huge fraction of the Chinese population In other words, they assume that a very significant percentage of the 1.3 billion people in China are going to be dragged into the middle class And, the primary force that will do that dragging is going to be the ever-expanding employment of hundreds . Amazon saving. Consumers in the United States are expected to continuepowering the factories in Chinaandotherdevel- opingnationsevenas the jobsfromwhichthoseconsum- ers derive their. well find themselves in the same boat as autoworkers in Detroit. Howcould the averagepeoplewhomakeup the bulkof ourpopulationearnaliving in aworld in whichmachines weresmarterandmorecapablethaneven the mostintelli- genthumans? Aside. to find employment within their capabilities, then how will they acquire the income necessary to create the demand that in turndrivesproduction?Ifweconsider the singular- ity in thiscontext,thenisitreallysomethingthatwillnec- essarilypushusforwardexponentially?Orcouldit in ac- tualityleadtorapideconomicdecline? * * The technologistswhospeculateabout the singularitydon’tseemtoo concerned