Tiểu luận kinh tế lượngcác yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến hiệu quả kinhdoanh của doanh nghiệp vừa và nhỏ ởviệt nam

BỘ GIÁO DỤC VÀ ĐÀO TẠO TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN TIỂU LUẬN KINH TẾ LƯỢNG CÁC YẾU TỐ ẢNH HƯỞNG ĐẾN HIỆU QUẢ KINH DOANH CỦA DOANH NGHIỆP VỪA VÀ NHỎ Ở VIỆT NAM No First and Last Name Giảng viên: TS………………… Hanoi 24/05/2023 Student code MỤC LỤC PART INTRODUCTION PART 2: THEORETICAL BASIS .3 2.1 Small and medium business concept 2.2 Characteristics of small and medium enterprises .3 2.3 The role of small and medium enterprises in the economy 2.4 Performance of small and medium enterprises 2.5 Overview of the studies .6 PART DATA COLLECTION 3.1 Data collection and processing 3.2 Building a theoretical model 3.3 Descriptive statistical analysis of the data samples 3.4 Correlation between profit after tax with independent factors 11 3.5 Expectations about the direction of the impact of the independent variables on the dependent variable 12 PART 4: DATA ANALYSIS .13 4.1 Multiple linear regression model .13 4.2 95% confidence intervals for regression coefficients .14 4.3 Test for statistical significance of regression coefficients, significance level at 5% 16 4.4 The coefficient of determination and the model fit test 17 So we reject Ho, accept H1 The regression model is suitable 18 4.5 Check the defects of the regression model 18 4.5.1 Missing variable defect test 18 4.5.2 Checking for multicollinearity 18 4.5.3 Test of variance of variable error 19 4.5.4 Test for normally distributed residuals .19 4.6 Fix the defects of the model .19 PART 5: CONCLUSION AND SOLUTION 21 5.1 Conclude 21 5.2 Solutions to improve business performance 21 PART INTRODUCTION Small and medium enterprises are dynamic and creative economic bases in the production and business of our country These enterprises have made remarkable achievements, playing a very important role in the economic and social development of the country However, in the development process, there are still some difficulties and limitations In the context of the country's deep international integration, it is both an opportunity and a big challenge for small and medium enterprises in Vietnam In order to stand firm and develop in today's fierce competitive environment, these enterprises must always improve the efficiency of their production and business activities as an inevitable trend Studying the factors affecting the efficiency of production and business activities of these enterprises not only helps enterprises to have a basis for evaluating business policies but also helps to improve the image of these enterprises in the market closer to consumers Therefore, it is urgent to evaluate the factors affecting the efficiency of production and business activities of small and medium enterprises The business performance of an enterprise may depend on many factors such as: macroeconomic factors operating by the government; general factors of the market and the general economic development cycle; depends on the enterprise itself, the number of employees of the enterprise; percentage of equity The operational efficiency scale also uses many different criteria such as: ROS, ROA, ROE; Using theories and econometric models, we can model and quantify the performance of small and medium enterprises in Vietnam according to many different criteria Based on the knowledge of the subject and the urgency of the research topic, which has both theoretical and practical significance, the group of students decided to choose the topic "Factors affecting business performance of small and medium enterprises in Vietnam” to determine the status of production and business activities as well as forecast the future development trend of an SME based on data collected in the past, in today's complex socio-economic context From there, each student himself can apply to actual work later, when working at a particular small and medium enterprise PART 2: THEORETICAL BASIS 2.1 Small and medium business concept Businesses play a very important role in the national economy These enterprises create many kinds of wealth to meet the development needs of society, create jobs and income for workers These enterprises are also the places to implement theoretical research results into reality Small and medium enterprises play an important part in the overall development of the economy “Enterprise is an organization with its own name, assets, transaction office and registered establishment under the provisions of law for business purposes” (according to the Enterprise Law 2015) Business is the performance of stages of a process from production investment to distribution of products or services with the ultimate goal of making a profit * Small and medium enterprises Small and medium enterprises include micro enterprises, small enterprises and medium enterprises, with an average number of employees participating in social insurance not exceeding 200 people per year and meeting one of the following two criteria: i) Total capital does not exceed 100 billion VND; ii) Total revenue of the previous period does not exceed VND 300 billion 2.2 Characteristics of small and medium enterprises  Small and medium-sized enterprises in our country are diversified in economic sectors with different forms of enterprise organization: foreign invested capital, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, limited liability companies , JSC, …  Small and medium-sized enterprises have a small volume of production products, rely on manual labor as the main, and usually only trade a few products that are suitable for the level and experience as well as the financial capacity of the enterprise  SMEs are flexible, employ few workers and often utilize local resources Therefore, these enterprises can easily convert to other production plans, change premises, business types and moreover easily dissolve  Small and medium-sized enterprises are operated based on the capacity and experience of the business owner, so the organization is lean, the decisions are also implemented quickly 2.3 The role of small and medium enterprises in the economy  Small and medium enterprises play an important part in the process of industrialization, modernization and economic restructuring in our country: The development of small and medium enterprises in our country has directly affected the economic development, from the increase in the number of enterprises and the creation of value of large outputs in the economy The development process of small and medium enterprises is also the process of improving equipment, improving labor productivity and product quality to meet the increasing demands of society Changing technology and helping the process of industrialization and modernization of the country take place not only in width but also in depth  Small and medium enterprises contribute to the stable and efficient development of the economy The development process of small and medium enterprises aims to improve production capacity and product quality to meet the needs of technological innovation, expand the relationship between supply and consumption, develop more new professions The important role of small and medium enterprises in goods circulation and provision of additional goods and services for large enterprises  Small and medium enterprises are an important source of state budget revenue and attract a lot of capital from the people In our country, large enterprises often appear in the economic centers of the country, while small and medium enterprises are present in most localities and contribute an important part to the budget, output and revenue generation local jobs With the characteristics of small scale, low investment capital, flexibility and adaptability for development, based on their own resources, small and medium enterprises have great advantages in exploiting capital in different classes people in service of production development 2.4 Performance of small and medium enterprises The efficiency of production and business activities of small and medium enterprises is considered in two aspects: width and depth The effect on the breadth of small and medium enterprises is the increase in size, the development by administrative boundaries and the development by industry in each locality, the development in depth of the medium enterprises and small is the optimal use of resources to improve the economic efficiency of business activities thereby having a positive impact on society Evaluation of business performance of small and mediumsized enterprises is carried out according to the following aspects: * Growth of small and medium enterprises Small and medium enterprise growth is one of the important issues of SME development Growth is again a prerequisite for development The first goal of all businesses is to grow and develop the business The growth is reflected in the scale and the growth rate Small and medium enterprise growth can be expressed in relative terms (growth rate) The size of the growth reflects a more or less increase, while the growth rate is relative and reflects a fast or slow increase in total products and services * The restructuring of small and medium enterprises In terms of business growth and development, the industry restructuring is the most important, the most interested and studied because it reflects the development of science and technology in small and medium enterprises The process of changing the structure of the industry from one state to another of small and medium-sized enterprises more and more perfect and suitable for development is called the restructuring of the economic sector * The increase in the quality of small and medium enterprises Document continues below Discover more from: Econometrics 112 documents Go to course Bai giang Kinh te luong - co Hong Van 66 Econometrics 100% (6) Vi mô - laaaaa 92 Econometrics 100% (2) Baitap KTL - Exercise on chapter 30 Econometrics 100% (2) Huong Dan Su Dung Stata 2014 Tuan Anh UEH 65 Econometrics 100% (2) Lý thuyết tập kinh tế lượng chương có lời giải 19 20 Econometrics 100% (2) KTL Maianh - tập nhóm kinh tế lượng lớp thầy bùi dương hải Econometrics 100% (1) Small and medium enterprise development in particular and enterprise development in general is a process of transformation in both quantity and quality, a close combination of the process of completing two issues: economy and society There, the change for the better in socio-political issues is the ultimate goal of economic development 2.5 Overview of the studies There are many studies related to the business performance of enterprises in our country, which include small and medium enterprises In particular, the business performance of enterprises is affected by many factors Research by Hansen et al (2002) shows that the age of the enterprise (or the number of years of operation of the enterprise) has a significant influence on the existence, development and adaptation of the enterprise The authors also show that one of the other factors affecting the efficiency of production and business activities of enterprises is the scale of operations In addition, the government's support policy and the education level of the business owner also have a certain influence on the performance of the business Studies show that the type of business, experience and qualifications of the business owner also affect the business performance of enterprises in general and small and medium enterprises in particular Researches by Mai Van Nam and Nguyen Quoc Nghi (2011) show that a number of factors affect the business performance of enterprises: government support policies, social relationships, The education level of the business owner and the revenue growth rate are the factors that greatly affect the performance of small and medium enterprises Besides, Le Khuong Ninh (2011) also pointed out that the size of the enterprise also has an impact on the ROS (profit after tax/revenue) of small and medium enterprises in the Mekong Delta Nguyen Dinh Thai and Chu Mong Ngoc (2015) also said that the performance of the enterprise (specifically ROS) depends on the total assets and ending inventory of the enterprise In addition, total equity and total revenue also greatly affect the profitability of the business The increase in the total number of employees also contributed to a significant increase in revenue; thereby generating profits for the business The larger the total assets at the end of the year and the larger the inventory, the lower the business performance Revenue and equity have a positive impact on the business performance of SMEs in Vietnam In addition, the type of business is also an important factor to consider to analyze the performance of the business PART DATA COLLECTION 3.1 Data collection and processing The data on small and medium-sized enterprises in Vietnam is collected by the group in the form of cross-sectional data with 35 criteria (enterprise characteristics and 8525 randomly selected enterprises (63 provinces; each province/city randomly selected) These data are taken from the General Statistics Office at the address: https://www.gso.gov.vn/so-lieu-thong-ke/ From the data table with 8525 observed objects (small and medium enterprises) with 35 criteria of business characteristics (tax code, business name, business type, business lines, total number of employees, etc.) ., profit after tax, ) the group of students decided to choose one factor representing the dependent variable which is profit after tax and factors representing the group of independent variables: total number of employees, year-end total assets, year-end inventory, year-end equity, total revenue and type of business (equal to if it is a private enterprise) From there, the group of students used R/Rstudio to model and determine the regression model of profit after tax (NPAT) depending on the above independent variable factors (tsld, TTScn, HTKcn, VCSHcn, TongDThu) The model is estimated based on the method of least squares (OLS) and the correctness of the model is tested based on the assumptions of the OLS method 3.2 Building a theoretical model To analyze the efficiency of production and business activities of enterprises, we use a theoretical model with an overall regression function as follows: In there: Dependent variable: EAT is accounting profit after tax (million VND) Independent variables: stld: Total number of employees (person): businesses with a large number of employees will generate a lot of revenue for their businesses On the basis of revenue before expenses will generate profit, which is the goal of all businesses TTScn: Total assets at the end of the year (million VND): businesses with larger total assets at the end of the year show low working capital turnover and often lead to low profit efficiency HTKcn: Year-end inventory (million VND): similar to total assets at the end of the year, the larger the inventory, the more stagnant the business results of the enterprise in the period, leading to production efficiency low business TongDThu: Total revenue (million VND): total revenue is a direct source of profit, without revenue, there is no profit, the higher the revenue, the higher the profit and vice versa 3.3 Descriptive statistical analysis of the data samples The data source is collected from the General Statistics Office with 8525 enterprises with 35 criteria A group of students chooses dependent criterion and independent criteria The descriptive statistics of the variables are as follows: The average profit after tax of SMEs is 26.38 million VND with a standard deviation of 209.6 million VND At least 50% of enterprises have a profit of 11.7 million VND or more The enterprise with the largest profit is 2212 million dong and the one with the smallest profit is -761.8 million dong The data is skewed to the right (because the skewness coefficient is > 0) Most businesses have profit after tax from to 200 million: The average number of employees for SMEs is 7.65 people with a standard deviation of 5.59 people At least 50% of enterprises have or more employees The enterprise with the largest number of employees is 30 people and at least people Data skewed to the right (because skewness skewness > 0) The mean end-of-year assets of small and medium-sized enterprises is VND 3318.35 million with a standard deviation of VND 2504.94 million At least 50% of enterprises have year-end assets of VND 2589.7 million or more The enterprise with the largest year-end assets is 12933.4 million and the smallest is 173.6 million Data skewed to the right (because skewness skewness > 0) The average year-end inventory of small and medium-sized enterprises is VND 777.87 million with a standard deviation of VND 883.17 million At least 50% of enterprises have year-end assets of 414.4 million or more The enterprise with the largest year-end inventory is 4015.5 million dong and the smallest is 5.9 million dong The data is skewed to the right (because the skewness coefficient is > 0) Inventory is mainly from to 200 million VND/year 10 The average year-end equity of small and medium-sized enterprises was VND 1854.43 million with a standard deviation of VND 1317.48 million There are at least 50% of enterprises with year-end equity of 1546.8 million or more The enterprise with the largest year-end equity is 5639.9 million dong and the smallest is 5642 million dong Data skewed to the right (because skewness skewness > 0) The average total revenue of SMEs is VND 3967.85 million with a standard deviation of VND 4666.83 million There are at least 50% of enterprises with total annual revenue of 2196.9 million VND or more The enterprise with the largest total revenue is VND 25403.1 million and the smallest is VND 58.9 million Data skewed to the right (because skewness skewness > 0) The total revenue of the enterprise at the end of the year is mainly from to 2000 million VND/year 11 3.4 Correlation between profit after tax with independent factors Comment: + The separate correlation between profit after tax with independent variables is not high 12 + The interaction between the independent variables is significant Particularly, the correlation coefficient between TTScn and VCSHcn is 0.615, so it is predicted that multicollinearity may occur in the multiple regression model 3.5 Expectations about the direction of the impact of the independent variables on the dependent variable VARIABLE VARIABLE NAME PROSPECTUS SIGNS tsld Total number of employees (person) + TTScn Total assets at the end of the year (million VND) - HTKcn Year-end inventory (million VND) - VSCHcn Equity at the end of the year (million VND) + TongDThu Total revenue (million VND) + lhdn Type of business + The research team expects: + Total number of employees, equity, type of business and total revenue have a positive impact on the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises + Total assets at the end of the year and Inventory at the end of the year have a negative impact on the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises 13 PART 4: DATA ANALYSIS 4.1 Multiple linear regression model stld: Total number of employees (person) TTScn: Total assets at the end of the year (million VND) HTKcn: Year-end inventory (million VND) VCSHcn: Equity at the end of the year (million VND) TongDThu: Total revenue (million VND) lhdn: Type of enterprise (= if it is a state-owned enterprise) The overall regression function has the form: Regression result: Sample regression function: * Economic significance of regression coefficients: : when all independent variables are 0, the average profit after tax of the enterprise is -27.44 million VND/year 14 : when the number of employees increases by person and other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises increases to an average of 0.476 million VND/year : when total assets at the end of the year increase to million dong and other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises will decrease by an average of 0.0135 million dong/year : when the year-end inventory increases to million dong and other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises decreases by an average of 0.0096 million dong/year : when equity increases to million dong and other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of small and medium-sized enterprises increases to an average of 0.0289 million dong/year : when the total revenue increases to million dong and other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of small and medium enterprises increases to an average of 0.0128 million dong/year : When other factors remain unchanged, the profit after tax of state-owned enterprises is 11.99 million/year lower than that of private enterprises 4.2 95% confidence intervals for regression coefficients 4.2.1 Confidence interval for intercept 0; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form: So with 95% confidence, the intercept of the regression model is in the range 4.2.2 Confidence interval for coefficient 1 ; 95% confidence 15 The confidence interval has the form: So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 1 of the regression model is in the range 4.2.3 Confidence interval for coefficient 2 ; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form: So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 2 of the regression model is in the range 4.2.4 Confidence interval for coefficient 3 ; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form: So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 3 of the regression model is in the range 4.2.5 Confidence interval for coefficient 5 ; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form:: So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 4 of the regression model is in the range 4.2.6 Confidence interval for coefficient 5 ; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form: So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 5 of the regression model is in the range 4.2.7 Confidence interval for coefficient 6 ; 95% confidence The confidence interval has the form: 16 So with 95% confidence, the coefficient 6 of the regression model is in the range 4.3 Test for statistical significance of regression coefficients, significance level at 5% 4.3.1 Check the significance of intercept coefficient 0 Hypothesis testing Because So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So the intercept coefficient 0 is statistically significant 4.3.2 Test the significance of the coefficient  Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we accept Ho, reject H1 So the total number of employees has no impact on the profit after tax of the enterprise 4.3.3 Test the significance of the coefficient  Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So the total assets at the end of the year have an impact on the profit after tax of the enterprise 4.3.4 Test the significance of the coefficient  Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So how does year-end inventory affect the company's profit after tax? 4.3.5 Test the significance of the coefficient  Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So, equity at the end of the year has an impact on the profit after tax of the business 4.3.6 Test the significance of the coefficient 5 Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So the total revenue has an impact on the profit after tax of the business 4.3.7 Test the significance of the coefficient  17 Hypothesis testing Because: So at 5% significance level, we reject Ho and accept H1 So the type of business has an impact on the profit after tax of the business 4.4 The coefficient of determination and the model fit test Factor of determination: R2 = 0.08428 The independent variables explained 8.428% of the change in the year-end profit of small and medium enterprises * Check model fit: Hypothesis testing: Statistical value p-vlaue < 2.10-16 < 0,05 So we reject Ho, accept H1 The regression model is suitable 4.5 Check the defects of the regression model 4.5.1 Missing variable defect test Hypothesis pair: H0: The model is not functionally wrong H1: The model is wrong in functional form Ramsey test results: Bause: p-value = 0,01266 < 0,05 should reject Ho, accept H1 So the model is in the wrong function format 4.5.2 Checking for multicollinearity Hypothesis pair: H0: The model does not have multicollinearity H1: Does the model have multicollinearity? VIF (variance exaggeration factor): 18 VIF coefficients are quite small (< 3), so there is little possibility of multicollinearity 4.5.3 Test of variance of variable error Hypothesis pair: H0: The model has constant variance H1: The model has variable variance Breusch - Pagan test results p-value = 2,2.10-16 < 0,05 should reject Ho, accept H1 So the model has variable variance 4.5.4 Test for normally distributed residuals Hypothesis pair: H0: Normally distributed residuals H1: Residuals are not normally distributed Jaque-Bera test results: p-value = 2,2.10-16 < 0,05 should reject Ho, accept H1 So the noise is not normally distributed 19 4.6 Fix the defects of the model The model violated the assumptions of the OLS estimator To overcome the phenomenon of variable variance, we use Robust regression as follows: Regression model after overcoming the phenomenon of variable variance The corrected model also has no non-standard noise 20 PART 5: CONCLUSION AND SOLUTION 5.1 Conclude stld: Total number of employees (person): businesses with a large number of employees will generate a lot of revenue for their businesses On the basis of revenue before expenses will generate profit, which is the goal of all businesses TTScn: Total assets at the end of the year (million VND): businesses with larger total assets at the end of the year show low working capital turnover and often lead to low profit efficiency HTKcn: Year-end inventory (million VND): similar to total assets at the end of the year, the larger the inventory, the more stagnant the business results of the enterprise in the period, leading to production efficiency low business VCSHcn: Equity at year-end (million VND): equity characterizes the internal health of the enterprise, the higher this capital, the more proactively the enterprise responds and adapts to the continuous changes of the business market, making the production efficiency of small and medium enterprises larger TongDThu: Total revenue (million VND): total revenue is a direct source of profit, without revenue, there is no profit, the higher the revenue, the higher the profit and vice versa 5.2 Solutions to improve business performance 5.2.1 For the governing body Improve institutions, policies and laws This group of solutions aims to significantly improve the business environment for businesses, creating maximum convenience for SMEs when participating in domestic and foreign markets Accordingly, it is necessary to clearly define the guidelines and strategic orientations for the development of the SME community: Promoting the development of the private economy, improving the production capacity of enterprises; Promoting the role of society, socio-political organizations, and socioprofessional organizations in promoting the development of SMEs, raising the awareness of the social community for the development of SMEs in Vietnam 21 Accordingly, it is necessary to improve the role and capacity of associations to support SMEs and strengthen the function of consultation and social criticism On the other hand, increasing the reception of feedbacks, opinions and needs from consumers using SME's products in order to improve themselves in business activities, providing goods and services to customers by means of products and services solutions such as: improving social responsibility, business responsibility of enterprises to consumers; balance the interests of traders and consumers 5.2.2 For Businesses The main goal of a business is to maximize profits To further improve the efficiency of enterprises, business leaders need to focus on promoting a number of factors that positively affect and improve environmental and social factors Enterprises need to apply a regime to encourage improvement of knowledge, professional and technical qualifications, management with bonuses according to the work results, creativity and learning of employees SME owners and managers need to improve their professional and managerial skills Enterprises should develop a plan of necessary capital to train and improve the qualifications of business owners and employees, focusing on training necessary skills for managers and business owners to develop strategic plans comb Along with that, fully exploit the support policies from the State, make good use of the strength of management experience to well run the business process PART 2: Literature Review ( Thủy Anh) PART 3: Data collection ( Lê Thảo ) PART 4: Analyzing the data (Lâm + My) Part 4a Checking the assumptions of OLS estimates Part 4b Explaining the estimated results in Tables and PART 5: Further discussion (Lâm + My) robust