(Luận văn) evaluation of water stress and water quality under the impact of climate change in the upper thai binh river basin, vietnam

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY HTET THU SOE EVALUATION OF WATER STRESS AND WATER QUALITY UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UPPER THAI BINH RIVER BASIN, VIETNAM MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY HTET THU SOE EVALUATION OF WATER STRESS AND WATER QUALITY UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE UPPER THAI BINH RIVER BASIN, VIETNAM MAJOR: ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING CODE: 8520320.01 RESEARCH SUPERVISORS: Associate Prof Dr SATO KEISUKE Dr PHAM QUY GIANG Hanoi, 2021 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Firstly, I would like to acknowledge Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund Scholarship Program Because of this scholarship, I got the opportunity to study Master’s Program in VNU Vietnam – Japan University, Vietnam I also thank the academic authority for their effort to provide a continuous learning environment even in this global pandemic I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my principal supervisor, Associate Professor Dr Sato Keisuke His research motivation, supervision and unique approaches to each dimension played a critical role to raise these successful research outcomes I will never forget his kindness and gratitude in my life I also would like to thank my co-supervisor, Dr Pham Quy Giang who unwaveringly supported me to collect necessary research data, including provision of research idea and encouragement My appreciation also extends to Ms Pham Thi Kieu Chinh who assisted me to complete research works I could not have been completed without her kind supports I am also grateful to Assistant Professor Dr Taishi Yazawa, for his invaluable research advices I also would like to thank every single member of Master’s Program in Environmental Engineering for their kind supports during these two years, from enrollment to graduation Finally, yet importantly, my gratitude goes to my parents and soulmate who always respect my decisions, and they had acted as my rock in times of troubles Their encouragement had been the crux of this research journey This research was financially supported by JICA Research Grant Program, Ritsumeikan University and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology-MEXT/the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science-JSPS KAKENHI Grant Program (JP 18H04153) Thanks All!! TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 General Background 1.2 Research Motivation 1.3 Target Basin 1.4 Problem Statements 1.5 Objectives 1.6 Thesis Structure 1.7 Baseline Information about the Study Basin .6 1.7.1 Hydrological Features .6 1.7.2 Topography and Administrative Boundaries 1.7.3 Climatic Condition 1.8 Summary 10 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 11 2.1 Administrative Provinces .11 2.2 Hydrological Modelling 12 2.3 Climate Change .13 2.4 Water Stress Assessment 15 2.5 Water Quality Evaluation .17 2.6 Summary 20 CHAPTER 3: HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION 21 3.1 SWAT Hydrological Model 21 3.1.1 Preparation of In-put Data for Model Set-up 23 3.2 SWAT Model Set-up .29 3.2.1 Watershed Delineation 29 3.2.2 HRU Analysis 29 3.2.3 Integration with Weather Database 29 3.3 SWAT Model Calibration and Validation .30 3.4 Model Performance Evaluation 30 3.5 Results of Simulation .31 3.5.1 SWAT Model Calibration and Validation Result 31 3.6 Summary 35 CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE PROJECTION .36 4.1 Future Climate Scenario .36 4.2 Performance Analysis of Bias Correction Method .38 4.3 Results of Climate Projection 39 4.3.1 Performance Evaluation .39 4.3.2 Projected Precipitation Data 39 4.3.3 Projected Maximum and Minimum Temperature 41 4.4 Summary 45 CHAPTER 5: WATER STRESS ASSESSMENT .46 5.1 Water Demand 46 5.2 Water Resources 46 5.3 Water Stress 46 5.4 Future Water Stress 47 5.5 Result of Water Stress Assessment 48 5.5.1 Current Water Demand 48 5.5.2 Current Water Resource Potential 49 5.5.3 Current Water Stress 49 5.5.4 Future Water Demand 50 5.5.5 Future Water Resource Potential 51 5.5.6 Future Water Stress 51 5.6 Summary 53 CHAPTER 6: WATER QUALITY EVALUATION 54 6.1 Water Quality Parameters 55 6.2 Vietnamese National Water Quality Index (VN_WQI) 56 6.2.1 Calculating WQI in this Study 56 6.3 Data Analysis 57 6.4 Result of Water Quality Assessment 58 6.4.1 Water Quality Results 58 6.4.2 Results of Statistical Analysis 62 6.4.3 Results of Water Quality Index 85 6.5 Future Water Quality Status under the Impact of Climate Change 88 6.6 Summary 89 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION, LMITATATIONS AND FUTURE TREND 90 REFERENCES 92 APPENDICES 99 Appendix Result of Population Projection 99 Appendix 2.A Detailed Statistics About Current Water Stress .100 Appendix 2.B Detailed Statistics About Future Water Stress 101 Appendix Photo Records of River Water Sampling Point 102 Appendix Scenes During River Water Sampling 105 Appendix List of Survey Team Member 105 Appendix Analytical Methods .106 Appendix Detailed WQI Calculation Method 110 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Variation of Precipitation (%) during 1958 – 2014 .14 Table 3.1 SWAT Land Use Code and Statistics (2015) 26 Table 3.2 Summary for Preparation of Model Input-Data 28 Table 3.3 Model Performance Rating 31 Table 3.4 Goodness-of-fit Statistics for Discharge Simulation 32 Table 3.5 Calibrated Parameters and Fitted Values 32 Table 3.6 Average Monthly Hydrological Components .34 Table 3.7 Annual Water Balance Statistics .34 Table 4.1 Description of RCM 36 Table 4.2 Period of Study and Projected Climatic Variables 36 Table 4.3 Performance Evaluation Results 39 Table 4.4 Changes in Seasonal Precipitation 40 Table 4.5 Changes in Seasonal Maximum Temperature .42 Table 4.6 Changes in Seasonal Minimum Temperature 42 Table 4.7 Changes in Long Term Annual Temperature 43 Table 6.1 Location of River Water Sampling Points 54 Table 6.2 Summary of Water Quality Parameters 56 Table 6.3 VN_WQI Based Classification for Surface Water Quality .57 Table 6.4 In-situ Water Quality Result of Cau River Sub-basin 58 Table 6.5 Ex-situ Water Quality Result of Cau River Sub-basin .59 Table 6.6 In-situ Water Quality Result of Luc Nam River Sub-basin 60 Table 6.7 Ex-situ Water Quality Result of Luc Nam River Sub-basin .60 Table 6.8 In-situ Water Quality Result of Thuong River Sub-basin 61 Table 6.9 Ex-situ Water Quality Result of Thuong River Sub-basin 61 Table 6.10 Mean Values of Water Quality Parameters observed in CRSB 62 Table 6.11 Mean Values of Water Quality Parameters observed in LNRSB 63 Table 6.12 Mean Values of Water Quality Parameters observed in TRSB .63 Table 6.13 Correlation Matrix .66 Table 6.14 Total Variance Explained for Wet Season of CRSB 67 Table 6.15 PCA Loadings (CRSB-Wet Season) 68 Table 6.16 Total Variance Explained for Dry Season of CRSB 70 Table 6.17 PCA Loadings (CRSB-Dry Season) 71 Table 6.18 Total Variance Explained for Wet Season of LNRSB .73 Table 6.19 PCA Loadings (LNSB-Wet Season) 74 Table 6.20 Total Variance Explained for Dry Season of LNRSB 76 Table 6.21 PCA Loadings (LNSB-Dry Season) 77 Table 6.22 Total Variance Explained for Wet Season of TRSB 78 i Table 6.23 PCA Loadings (TRSB-Wet Season) 79 Table 6.24 Total Variance Explained for Dry Season of TRSB 81 Table 6.25 PCA Loadings (TRSB-Dry Season) 82 ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Location of Target Basin (Source: TA-7629, VIE, 2012) Figure 1.2 Long Term Annual Maximum Temperature Trend Figure 1.3 Long Term Annual Minimum Temperature Trend Figure 1.4 Long Term Monthly Precipitation Trend Figure 1.5 Average Monthly Discharge at the Gia Bay Hydrological Station (20052019) Figure 1.6 Work Flow of the Research Figure 2.1 Annual Changes of Temperature (Ngu et al., 2016) Figure 2.2 Water Stress Levels in Vietnam (2030WRG, 2017) Figure 2.3 River Water Quality in Vietnam (2030WRG, 2017) Figure 3.1 DEM of the UPTBRB Figure 3.2 High Resolution Land Use and Land Cover Map of the UPTBRB (2015) Figure 8 9 10 14 17 20 23 3.3.MajorLandCoverStatisticsintheUPTBRB Figure 3.4 Soil Map of the UPTBRB Figure 3.5 The Proportion of Soil Classes observed in the UPTBRB Figure 3.6 Location of Hydro-meteorological Stations Figure 3.7 Formation of HRUs Figure 3.8 Calibration Result at the Gia Bay Hydrological Station Figure 3.9 Validation Result at the Gia Bay Hydrological Station Figure 3.10 Annual Water Balance of the UPTBRB (2008 – 2019) Figure 4.1 Location of Projected Meteorological Stations Figure 4.2 Average Monthly Precipitation Trends (5-stations average) Figure 4.3 Annual Changes of Precipitation Trends (5-stations average) Figure 4.4 Average Monthly Changes of Maximum Temperature (5-stations average) .43 Figure 4.5 Average Monthly Changes of Minimum Temperature (5-stations average) 25 25 26 27 28 29 33 33 35 38 41 41 44 Figure 4.6.AnnualChangesofMaximumTemperature(5-stationsaverage) 44 Figure 4.7 Annual Changes of Minimum Temperature (5-stations average) 45 Figure 5.1 Proportion of Sectoral Water Demand 49 Figure 5.2 Distribution of Current Water Stress Levels 50 Figure 5.3 Distribution of Predicted Water Stress Levels 52 Figure 5.4 Comparison of Current and Future Water Statistics (Annual) 52 Figure 5.5 Changes in Water Demand by Each Sector 53 Figure 6.1 Location Map of Sampling Points 55 Figure 6.2 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances (CRSB-Wet Season) 68 iii Figure 6.3 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in CRSB (Wet Season) 69 Figure 6.4 Bi-plot Illustration for PC2 and PC3 in CRSB (Wet Season) 69 Figure 6.5 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC3 in CRSB (Wet Season) 70 Figure 6.6 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances (CRSB-Dry Season) 71 Figure 6.7 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in CRSB (Dry Season) 72 Figure 6.8 Bi-plot Illustration for PC2 and PC3 in CRSB (Dry Season) 72 Figure 6.9 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC3 in CRSB (Dry Season) 73 Figure 6.10 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances (LNSB-Wet Season) .74 Figure 6.11 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in LNRSB (Wet Season) 75 Figure 6.12 Bi-plot Illustration for PC2 and PC3 in LNRSB (Wet Season) 75 Figure 6.13 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC3 in LNRSB (Wet Season) 76 Figure 6.14 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances for LNRSB (Dry Season) 76 Figure 6.15 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in LNRSB (Dry Season) 77 Figure 6.16 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances (TRSB-Wet Season) .78 Figure 6.17 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in TRSB (Wet Season) 79 Figure 6.18 Bi-plot Illustration for PC2 and PC3 in TRSB (Wet Season) 80 Figure 6.19 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC3 in TRSB (Wet Season) 80 Figure 6.20 Eigen Values and Proportion of Variances (TRSB-Dry Season) 81 Figure 6.21 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC2 in TRSB (Dry Season) .82 Figure 6.22 Bi-plot Illustration for PC2 and PC3 in TRSB (Dry Season) .83 Figure 6.23 Bi-plot Illustration for PC1 and PC3 in TRSB (Dry Season) .83 Figure 6.24 Cluster Dendrogram for Wet Season in the UPTBRB 84 Figure 6.25 Cluster Dendrogram for Dry Season in UPTBRB 85 Figure 6.26 Seasonal Variation of Observed WQI in the CRSB 86 Figure 6.27 Seasonal Variation of Observed WQI in the LNRSB 87 Figure 6.28 Seasonal Variation of Observed WQI in the TRSB 88 iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CEM CMIP6 CRSB DEM LNRSB TRSB PCA RCP 4.5 : Center for Environmental Monitoring : Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase : Cau River Sub-basin : Digital Elevation Model : Luc Nam River Sub-basin : Thuong River Sub-basin : Principal Component Analysis : Representative Concentration Pathway under 4.5 Scenario RCM SWAT UPTBRB VEA WQI : Regional Climate Model : Soil and Water Assessment Tool : Upper Thai Binh River Basin : Vietnam Environmental Administration : Water Quality Index v