0100 understanding china’s behaviour in the south china sea a defensive realist perspective

UnderstandingChi na’sBehaviourin theSouthChinaSea ADefensiveRealistPerspective KLAUSHEINRICHRADITIO UnderstandingChina’sBehaviourintheSouth ChinaSea KlausHeinrichRaditio UnderstandingChin a’sBehaviourintheSo uthChinaSea ADefensiveRealistPerspective KlausHeinrichRaditioU niversityofSydneySydn ey,NSW,Australia ISBN978-981-13-1282-3 ISBN 978-981-13-1283-0( e B o o k ) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1283-0 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2018950397 © TheEditor(s) (ifapplicable) andThe Author(s)2019 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by thePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftra nslation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction onmicrofilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in thispublication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names areexempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformatio ninthisbookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepub-lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to thematerial contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made Thepublisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu-tionalaffiliations Coverillustration:©Pomogayev/ GettyImagesCoverDesignbyTomHowey ThisPalgraveMacmillanimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSinga porePteLtd Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:152BeachRoad,#2101/04GatewayEast,Singapore189721,Singapore ForI n d o n e s i a FOREWORD Albert Einstein once said that “peace can only be achieved by understanding”.Inaworldfullofsuspicionanddistrust,hiswordisveryrelevant.Our knowledgeandunderstandingonothercountries, particularlytheemerging power like China, are indeed of paramount importance Forsome, the rise of China offers plenty of opportunities, and success awaitsthosewhocantakeadvantageofit.However,forothers,Chinaisst illamystery.Its behaviour in the South China Sea, for instance, is perplex-ing—andsometimesconsideredworrying Thisb ook—w h i ch offers thep ers p ecti veof d efe nsi v e real i st —i sm ean t to deepen our understanding on China and its behaviour in the SouthChina Sea This fruitful research serves Indonesia’s diplomacy which consistently promotes inclusiveness and habit of dialogue Indonesia’s foreignpolicyaimsatalleviatinggreatpowersrivalry,maintainingpeace,sta bility,andprosperity This research was successfully conducted and wins acclaim from prominentscholarsininternationalrelations.IcongratulateKlausforpresentinghis originalideaonChina’sbehaviourintheSouthChinaSea.Iamcon-fident that this book contributes to enhancing our understanding onChinaandthecurrentstageofinternationalaffairs DirectorGeneralforAsiaPacificandAfrican Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, JakartaRepublicofIndonesia DesraP e r c a y a vii PREFaCE I have conducted this research under the Australia Awards Scholarship(AAS) scheme I dedicate this research to my country and hope thisresearch can help everyone, especially my fellow Indonesians and Australianfriends,tounderstandChinabetter This research is conducted with generous support from my principalsupervisorAssociateProfessorJingdongYuanandassociatesupervisorDrJustinHastings.I am grateful also for support from the staff and col-leagues at the University of Sydney’s Department of Government andInternationalRelations I would also like to thank the National Institute of South China SeaStudies in Haikou, China, and the Centre for International Law, NationalUniversity of Singapore, where I conducted my fieldwork in NovemberandDecember2015 MydeepestappreciationgoestotheForeignMinistryoftheRepublicof Indonesia to which I belong, for giving me the opportunity to serve mycountry in the scholarly field I thank the Indonesian Consulate in Sydneyand all the staff for their support and care while I have been undertakingthis research, in particular Mr and Mrs Yayan Mulyana, and Mr NovanIvanhoeSaleh I thank Dr Desra Percaya, the Director General for Asia-Pacific andAfrican Affairs, for giving me the opportunities to develop my skill indiplomacyandscholarlyfield.Iammostgratefulformycolleagues’sup-port, particularly Yvonne Mewengkang, Rifky Akbar, Raka Pamungkas,GinaVirginianty,DiahSetyorini,andJunaedi ix x PREFACE This research could not have been completed without moral supportfrom my family, who created a positive atmosphere and helped me to be abetterperson AdMaioremDeiGloriam! Sydney,NSW,Australia KlausHeinrichRaditioApril2018 CONTENTS Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 LiteratureReview 1.2.1 IstheNatureofChina’sSCSBehaviourChanging? 1.2.2 TheRationaleforChina’sChangingBehaviour intheSCS 1.3 TheContributions 11 1.3.1 Contribution1:TheoreticalAnalysis 12 1.3.2 Contribution2:SystematicExplanation 12 1.4 ResearchQuestions 12 1.5 TheStructureoftheBook 14 TheoreticalFramework:SecurityDilemmaReconsider ed 19 2.1 SecurityDilemma:TheConcept 19 2.2 TheRootoftheSecurityDilemma 22 2.3 SecurityDilemma:TheConstitutiveElements 24 2.4 TheActorswithintheSecurityDilemma 26 2.5 SecurityDilemma,Spiral,andDeterrence 29 2.6 AreThereVariantsofSecurityDilemmas? 32 2.7 SecurityDilemmaandConflictofInterest 34 2.8 TheContinuumoftheSecurityDilemma 37 2.9 CanaSecurityDilemmaBeMitigated? 41 xi xii CONTENTS China’sClaimintheSouthChinaSea 49 3.1 China’sClaimintheSCS 49 3.2 China’sClaimandItsCompatibilitywithInternational Law 52 3.2.1 LandCla ims 52 3.2.2 MaritimeClaims 57 3.3 TheUNCLOSTribunalRuling 60 3.3.1 TheArbitrationProcess 60 3.3.2 TheAwardoftheTribunal 61 3.4 Conclusion 63 China’sInterestsintheSouthChinaSea 69 4.1 China’sGrowingInterestsintheSCS 69 4.1.1 Resources 69 4.1.2 Security 71 4.1.3 Geopolitics 76 4.1.4 Taiwan 81 4.1.5 TheLegitimacyoftheChineseCommunistParty 83 4.2 Conclusion:InDefenceofChina’sInterestinSCS 86 China’sDefectionintheSouthChinaSea 95 5.1 ChinaasaDefensiveRealistState 95 5.2 TheSCSasaLitmusTestforChina’sDefensiveRealist Behaviour 97 5.3 BriefHistoryofConflictintheSCS 100 5.4 DoesChina’sBehaviourintheSCSReflectthat ofaDefensiveRealistState? 105 5.4.1 Is China Open to Non-military Solutions for the SCSDispute? 105 5.4.2 DoesChinaShowSelf-restraintintheSCS? 107 5.4.3 DoesChinaAdoptReassurancePoliciesintheSCS? 110 5.5 China’sDefectionintheSCS 112 5.6 Conclusion 116 Security DilemmaBetween ChinaandOther SouthChina SeaClaimantStates 125