Risk Analysis Decision making under risk and uncertainty (Phân tích rủi ro ra quyết định dưới môi Chuyên đề: Quản lý rủi ro (Part 1) PGS.TS Lương Đức Long Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Nguồn: Theo Bài giảng trường rủi ro và không chắc chắn)
Chuyên đề: Quản lý rủi ro (Part 1) Risk Analysis Decision making under risk and uncertainty (Phân tích rủi ro- định môi trường rủi ro không chắn) PGS.TS Lương Đức Long Nguồn: Theo Bài giảng Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Project Management Phase FEASIBILITY DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT CLOSEOUT Financing&Evaluation Risk Analysis&Attitude Phân tích rủi ro Thái độ OPERATIONS Risk Management Phase FEASIBILITY DESIGN PLANNING DEVELOPMENT CLOSEOUT OPERATIONS RISK MNG • Risk management – Assessment, tracking and control – Tools: • Risk Hierarchical modeling: Risk breakdown structures • Risk matrixes • Contingency plan: preventive measures, corrective actions, risk budget, etc Decision Making Under Risk Outline Risk and Uncertainty • Risk Preferences, Attitude and Premiums • Examples of simple decision trees • Decision trees for analysis • Flexibility and real options Decision making Uncertainty and Risk (Không chắn rủi ro) • “risk” as uncertainty about a consequence Rủi ro không chắn hậu (tức biết có hậu quả, khơng chắn) • Preliminary questions – What sort of risks are there and who bears them in project management? – What practical ways people use to cope with these risks? – Why is it that some people are willing to take on risks that others shun? Some Risks • Weather changes • Different productivity • (Sub)contractors are – – – – – • • • • Unreliable Lack capacity to work Lack availability to work Unscrupulous Financially unstable Late materials delivery Lawsuits Labor difficulties Unexpected manufacturing costs • Failure to find sufficient tenants • Community opposition • Infighting & acrimonious relationships (Quan hệ đấu đá & chua cay) • Unrealistically low bid • Late-stage design changes • Unexpected subsurface conditions – Soil type – Groundwater – Unexpected Obstacles • Settlement of adjacent structures • High lifecycle costs • Permitting problems • … Importance of Risk • Much time in construction management is spent focusing on risks • Many practices in construction are driven by risk – Bonding requirements (Yêu cầu cam kết) – Insurance – Licensing – Contract structure • • • • General conditions Payment Terms Delivery Method Selection mechanism Outline Risk and Uncertainty Risk Preferences, Attitude and Premiums • Examples of simple decision trees • Decision trees for analysis • Flexibility and real options Decision making under risk Available Techniques • Decision modeling – Decision making under uncertainty – Tool: Decision tree • Strategic thinking and problem solving: – Dynamic modeling (end of course) • Fault trees Sensitivity Analysis II Decision Making Under Risk Risk and Uncertainty Risk Preferences, Attitude and Premiums Decision trees for representing uncertainty Examples of simple decision trees Decision trees for analysis • Flexibility and real options Flexibility and Real Options • Flexibility is providing additional choices • Flexibility typically has – Value by acting as a way to lessen the negative impacts of uncertainty (Flexibility có Giá trị việc hàng động cách làm bớt ảnh hưởng âm khơng chắn) – Cost (Flexibility có Chi phí chậm định, thêm thời gian, chi phí cho phần thêm để dành cho linh hoạt) • Delaying decision • Extra time • Cost to pay for extra “fat” to allow for flexibility Ways to Ensure of Flexibility in Construction (Những cách để đảm bảo linh hoạt XD) • Alternative Delivery (sản phẩm thay thế) • Clear spanning (to allow movable walls) • Extra utility conduits (những đường ống dẫn tiện tích thêm) (electricity, phone,…) • Larger footings & columns • Broader foundation • Alternative heating/electrical • Contingent plans for – Value engineering – Geotechnical conditions – Procurement strategy • • • • • Additional elevator Larger electrical panels Property for expansion Sequential construction Wiring to rooms Illustration of Flexibility Illustration of Flexibility: Selection of Elevator Count • More sophisticated model taking into account – Initial costs – Repair costs – Loss due to lost conveyance Sensitivity Analysis Outcome Strategy Selection Adaptive Strategies (Những chiến lược thích ứng) • An adaptive strategy is one that changes the course of action based on what is observed – i.e one that has flexibility (thay đổi chương trình hành động dựa theo quan sát được) – Rather than planning statically up front, explicitly plan to adapt as events unfold (Hơn làm kế hoạch trước cách TĨNH, dùng kế hoạch NHANH GỌN để thích ứng kiện phơi bày ra) – Typically we delay a decision into the future (Chúng ta trì hỗn định cho tương lai) Real Options • Real Options theory provides a means of estimating financial value of flexibility (Lý thuyết lựa chọn thực cung cấp phương tiên để ước lượng giá trị tài linh hoạt) – E.g option to abandon (từ bỏ) a plant, expand bldg • Key insight: NPV does not work well with uncertain costs/revenues – E.g difficult to model option of abandoning invest • Model events using stochastic diff equations – Numerical or analytic solutions – Can derive from decision-tree based framework Example: Structural Form Flexibility Example: Structural Form Flexibility Considerations for Flexibility • Tradeoffs – Short-term speed and flexibility (Tốc độ nhanh linh hoạt) • Overlapping design & construction and different construction activities limits changes – Short-term cost and flexibility • E.g value engineering away flexibility (Kỹ thuật giá trị làm xa rời Sự linh hoạt) • Selection of low bidder • Late decisions can mean greater costs (Quyết định chậm tăng CP) – NB: both budget & schedule may ultimately be better off w/greater flexibility! • Frequently retrofitting (trang bị thêm) $ > up-front $