Work is, after First, building on earlier research-notably that of World De7velopment Report 1990-it emphasizes the bene-fits to workers in all countries, and especially poor ones, of p
Trang 1World Development Report I995
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Trang 3World Development Report I995
Trang 4Oxford University Press
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Trang 5ORK-SAFE, PRODUCTIVE AND an important role in helping workers who are adversely
key to economic and social can involve not just providing a social safety net, but alsoprogress everywhere In the advice helping to equip workers for change
mis-policies it promotes, the World Bank has long recognized guided in favoring those in good jobs at the expense of
the critical value of work This is more than an economic workers in the rural and informal sectors and the
unem-issue; it is at the heart of human development As such, ployed Governments have a distinct role in setting the legal
work is a more than worthy subject for this, the eighteenth and regulatory frameworks within which trade unions and
annual World Development Report It focuses on the incomes firms can operate and in ensuring that those frameworks
workers receive, the risks they face, and the conditions encourage their positive contributions to development
nificant implications for those who do not work-children, prevent exploitation and discrimination Successful labor
the old, and those unable to work-as for those who do policies are those that work in harmony with the market
What makes the Report even more timely is the growing and avoid providing special protections and privileges to
impact of two distinct global trends: reduced government particular labor groups at the expense of the poorest
intervention in markets, and the increased integration of Fourth, workers eventually benefit from economic
re-trade, capital flows, and the exchange of information and form as states move from central planning to market
sys-technology In such a climate of profound change, basic de- tems and from protectionism to openness The change,
global competitive pressures The harsh reality of a global decline temporarily and as workers have to move from old
market is that policy failures are punished hard-through to new jobs There remains a need for governments to
pro-currency movements, shifts in market share, and, ultimately, vide strong support to workers and their families in such
Some see the new global marketplace as a source of op- One goal of this Report is to spark a broad and
in-portunity, where industry and energy bring swift rewards; formed debate on these often contentious issues Another,
others regard the changes as a threat to security, and in parts more important, goal is to inspire policy changes that allow
of the industrial and the developing world the cause of pro- more of the right sort of jobs to be created Work is, after
First, building on earlier research-notably that of
World De7velopment Report 1990-it emphasizes the
bene-fits to workers in all countries, and especially poor ones, of
productivity-raising economic growth driven by sound
and rich countries at the same time But governments have June 1, 1995
Trang 6T:s Reort ha ben ppd b a ead a g Edwards, Ishac Diwan, Hafz Ghane d
Many others in and outside the Bank hell
Note) The fternatonal Economis Deprment contribue to, diddta ppand ress fr he World Development Indicators The produciion staff of the Aport ilded A B s Kath*yn Kine Dahl, Geoffrey Eaton, Stephanie Gerard, Aidrey i gman, Cthe K6cak, N,fe N Nees, Kathy Rosen, Beatrice Sito, Tracey A Sith, d Michael Aw e d nwas by Brian Noy f the Magaine Group.
The support staff was headed by Rebecca Sgui and includd danjel Atchison, EliabthVde Linma; and Michal
Preparation ofthe Report was greatly aide by ckound pIaess andby tontriwutions fromn participants in the consultation meetngs The names of he pacipants inthe consultation m gs are li in the BibliographicaI
Note.
Trang 7Which Development Strategies Are Good for Workers? 15
Part Two
Part Three
The Oudook for Workers in the Twenty-First Century 117
Bibliographical Note 126
Appendix: International Labor Statistics 143
Trang 8World Development Indicators 153
Boxes
8.1 How does crade with developing countries affect the unskilled in industrial countries? 56
Text figures
7.2 Trade, capital flows, and migration in industrial, developing, and transitional countries 52
Trang 91 5.1 Increases in trade and in private employment in selected reforming economies 101
15.2 Sectoral distribution of employment in China and Russia 102
16.1 Income inequality and economic growvth in Latin America and former centrally planned economies 105
17.1 The minimum wage as a fraction of the average wage in selected reforming economies 111
18.1 Actual and projected wages and employment shares by region and skill level 121
Text tables
1.1 The world's labor force by country income group and region 9
2.1 Working-age population by employment status in Ghana, Malaysia, and Poland 16
2.2 Earnings in selected occupations in Malaysia 18
4.1 Changes in manufacturing earnings and employment in highly protected and export-orienited economies 33 6.1 Average years of schooling by per capita income quintile in selected developing countries 42
8.1 Estimates of changes in wages and prices resulting from the Uruguay Round agreement by 2005 57
9.1 Indebtedness, stock market performance, and wages in the five largest Latin American debtor countries 63
10.1 The world's foreign-born population by region 65
11.1 Types of government intervention in labor markets 71
11.2 Wage employment as a share of total employnment, by sector and country income group 72
11.3 Shares of men and women workers in nonwage employment 73
11.4 Ratios of wages in selected urban industrial occupations to rural wages 76
11.5 Enforcement of health and safecy standards in unionized and nonunionized firms in the United States,
by firm size 78
12.1 Effect of unionization on productivity-enhancing initiatives by firms in Malaysia 80
12.2 Union wage premiums in selected countries 81
12.3 Types of labor organization in the Republic of Korea 84
13.1 Prevalence and amounts of private transfers in selected countries 88
15.1 Characteristics of the four major patterns of reform 98
15.2 Real wages and unemployment in four reforming countries in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa 99
15.3 Real wages and unemployment in five former centrally planned economies 100
16.1 Impact of reform on workers in the four major reform patterns 107
17.1 Policies that ease employment restructuring 109
18.1 Assumptions underlyiig the projections 119
18.2 Projections of GDP per capita and exports by region 120
18.3 Projections of wages of skilled and unskilled workers by region 120
Appendix tables
A-I Labor supply 144
A-2 Distribution of the work force 147
A-3 Growth in output per capita and wages 149
A-4 Ratification of basic ILO conventions 150
Trang 10Definitions and
Data Notes
Selected terns used in this Report empted from paying duties on imported inputs and,
The labor force and its components The labor force of a often, from certain domestic regulation
country consists of all those in its working-age
popula-tion (those fifteen to sixty-four years of age) who are em- Freedom of association The freedom of workers to form
ployed (those seeking work but unable to find it) but to increase their collective bargaining power
excludes discouraged zvorkers (those who have given up
looking for work) as well as others who are neither Human capitaL The skills and capabilities embodied in
children, as well as students, retirees, disabled persons, improved health and ntitrition, education, and training
and others) Underemployment, although variously
de-fined in the literature, is used in this Report to mean Incomes policy Any attempt by a government to restrain
employment at fewer hours during a given period than increases in wages and salaries, usuallv for the purposethe worker desires The labor frrce participation rate is of holding down inflation or maintaining employmentthe percentage of the working-age population that is in levels
the labor force The work force consists of all persons
who are actually working, whether in the formal or the Pension schemes are of two basic types Pay-as-you-go
informal sector-that is, the labor force less the unem- schemnes are state-operated arrangements in which
pay-ployed The formal sector consists of those enterprises, ments to retirees are made out of current revenues, thuspublic or private, that hire workers under contract and constituting a transfer from those currently working Inare subject to labor laws and regulations For pLirposes funded schemes, in contrast, benefits are paid out of
of empirical analysis, the formlal sector is defined to in- funds accumulated from past contributions and areclude all nonagricultural enterprises that hire workers as therefore an intertemporal "transfer" from one genera-
Active labor market policies Policies aimed at helping the Purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustnent The
nities of those now working; they include job search as- of workers to reflect the actual power of a unit of localsistance, training, and job creation initiatives and are currency to buy goods and services in its country of issue,
port the standard of living of those not working by pro- currency will buy of equivalent goods and services in
PPP-adjusted incomes are useful for comparing the living
stan-Affirmative action The granting of preferences in hiring dards of workers in different countries In this Report,
to persons deemed to have suffered from job discrimi- data stated "in international prices" are PPP-adjusted
Collective bargaining Negotiations betxveen a union (or For operational and analytical purposes the World Bank'sother representatives of employees) and employers main criterion for classifying economies is gross national
to establish wage levels and other conditions of employ- product (GNP) per capita Every economy is classified as
lower-middle and upper-lower-middle), or high-income Other
analvti-Export processing zone A defined geographic area in cal groups, based on regions, exports, and levels of externalwhich mantifactLrers producing for export are ex- debt, arealso used
viii
Trang 11Because GNP per capita changes with time, the country The symbol / in dates, as in "1990/91." means that the
edition to the next Once the classification is fixed for any two calendar vears and refers to d crop year, a survey
edition, all the historical data presented are based on the vear, or a fiscal year
same country grouping The income-based counrry
Low-income economies are those with a GNP per capita of The symbol - in tables means not applicable (in the
World Development Indicators, a blank is used to mean
Midle-income economies are those with a GNP per capita not applicable.)
of more than $695 but less than $8,626 in 1993 A
fur-ther division, at GNP per capita of $2,785 in 1993, Thje number 0 or 0.0 in tables and figures means zero or a
High-income economies are those with a GNP per capita of The cutoff date for all data in the World Development
Historical data in this Report may differ from those in
sparse dtadtowileshn lprevious editions because of continual updating as better
year for constant price data, or because of changes in but are presented in Table I a in the technilcal notes to
the World Developnment Inidicators Other economic and demographic terms are defined in, I
The income criteria Llsed in the \orld Development the technical notes to the World Development Indicators
Indicators may differ from those used in the text of the Acronyms and initials
Report
.lassification by income does not necessarily reflect de- ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations
ties are identified by the svmbol t.) The use of the term
countries" to refer to economies implies no judgment by
Trillion is 1,000 billion PPP PLirchasing power parity (see "Selected terms
used in this Report" above)
Tons are metric tons, equal to 1,000 kilograms, or 2,204.6 OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germanly,
Dollars are current U.S dollars unless otherwise specified Greece, Iceland Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Luxem-bourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand
Growth rates are based on constant price data and, unless Norway, Portugal, Spain, Swedeni Switzerland,
the least-sqLiares method See the technical notes to the UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund
Trang 13D UONG IS A VIETNAMESE PEASANT FARMVER likely to stay unemplo'yedfor more than a yeas; andJean-Paiul
who struggles to fied his family He earns is encouraging his son to work hard in school so he can go to the equivalent of $10 a week for thirty- college and study computer programming Wt'orkers in industry eight hours of work in the rice fields, but he in high-income countries, like Jean-Paul make up just 4 per- works fill-time only six months of the cent of the wor:lds laborforce.
year-during the off-season he can earn very little His wifr
andfour children work uwith him in thefields, but thefamily These four families-rtvo living in Viet Nam, two in
can afford to send only the two youngest to school Duongs France-have vastly different standards of living and
expec-eleven-year-old daughter stays at home to help with housework, tations for the future Employment and wage prospects in
while his thirteen-year-old son works as a street trader in town Toulouse and Ho Chi Minh City are worlds apart, even
By any standard Duongsfnmily is living i7n poverty Workers when incomes are adjusted as here, for differences in the
like Duong, laboring oni family farms in low- and middle- cost of living Francoise's poverty wage would clearly buy
income countries, accouintfor about 4 0 percent of the world:s Hoa a vastly more affluent life-style And much of the
laborforce world's work force, like Duong works outside the wage
sec-tor on family farms and in the informal secsec-tor, generally
Hoa is a young V'ietnamese city du eller experiencing rela- earning even lower labor incomes (Box 1) But the lives of
tiive affluencefor thef4rst timne In Ho Chi Ajinh City she earns urban workers in different parts of the world are
increas-the equivalent of $30 a week workingforty-eight hours in a ingly intertwined French consumers buy the prodtict of
garmentfactory-a joint venture with a French firm She Hoa's labor, and Jean-Paul believes it is Hoa's low wages that
works hardfor her liVing and spends many hours looking after are taking his job while immigrant workers like Francoise
her three children as well; her husband works as a janitor But feel the brunt of jean-Paul's anger Meanwhile, Duong
Hoasfamily has several times the standard of living of Duongs struggles to save so that his childreni can be edtIcated and
and, by Vietnamese standards, is relatively well-off There is leave the countryside for the cirx, where foreign companies
every expectation that both she and her children will continue advertise new jobs at better wages
to have a vastly better staind.ard of living than her parents had These are revolutionary times in the global economv
XVage employees like Hoa, workinig in theformal sector- in low- The embrace of market-based development by many
devel-and middle-income countries, make up about 20 percent of the oping and former centrally planned economies, the
open-global laborforce ing of international markets, and great advances in the ease
with which goods, capital, and ideas flow arotind the world
Francoise is an immigrant in France of Vietnamese origin are bringing new opportllities, as well as risks, to billions
who works long hours as a waitress to make ends meet She of people In 1978 about a third of the world's work force
takes home the equivalent of $220 a week, afier taxes and in- lived in countries with centrally planned economies At
cluding tips, forfifty hours' work By Frenclh standards she is least another third lived in countries weakly linked to
inter-poor Legally, Francoise is a casual worker and so hats no job national interactions because of protective barriers to trade
security, b6ut she is much better off in France than she iuould and investment If recent trends continue, bv the vear 2000
have been in Viet Nam Her wage is almost eight times that fewer than 10 percent of workers mav be living in such
earned by Hoa in Ho Clhi Alinh City Franf oise and other ser- countries, largely disconnected from world markets
vices sector workers in high-incoome countries accounlt for about But rapid change is never easy In rich and poor
coun-9 percent ofthe glohal laborforce tries alike there are fears of rising insecUrity, as technological
change, expanding international interactions, and the
de-Jean-Paul is afifty-yearold Frenchman whose employment cline of traditional community strUctires seem to threaten
prospects look bleak For ten years he has wo-rked in a garnent jobs, wages, and support for the elderly Nor have economic
factory in Toulouse, taking home the equivalent of $400 a growth and rising integration solved the problem of world
week-twelve tinies the average wage in Viet Nams garmient poverty and deprivation Indeed, the ntimbers of the poor
industr7 But next month he u'ill lose his?ob when the fietory could rise still ftirther as rhe world labor force grows from
closes Unemployment benefits will partly shield him from the 2.5 billion today to a projected 3.7 billion in thirty vears'
Trang 14The woddu slabwo fo by "otor aW eoutr inma fol Data are projected for 1995 *om a sample of countries
in each income group Source: World Banfk staf eStintes based on the following: EBRD 1994; 1L0 1986 wlth IL0
data: updates; ILO, vartious years; and country souroes.
on pirifully low returns to bard work In many countries reduce poverry and regional inequality Bit to do so will workers lack representation and work in unhealthy, danger- quirc sound domestic policv and a supportive international
re-ous or demeaniing conditions Meanwhile 120 million or environmelt This means that governmenits must:
so are unemployed worldwide, and millions more have
Yer fears that increased international trade and invesr- growth in demand for labor, expalnsion in the skills ofment and less state intervention will hurt employment are the work force, and rising productivity
maiily without basis Workers have made great advances in * take advantage of new opportunities at the internationalmany countries, especialiV those that have embraced these level, by openinig up to trade and attracting capiral-butglobal trends, effectively engaging in intertiationial markets managc the dislocations that international changesand avoiding excessive state intervention Despite a doti- sometimes bring
bling of the world's *vork force over the past three decades, * construct a framework for labor policy that
collec-This Report concludes that problems of low incomes, rive bargaining in the formal sector, provides safeguardspoor working conditions, and insecurirt affecting maniy of for the vulnerable, and avoids biases chat favor relativelythe world's workers can be effectively tackled in ways thar well-offworkers, and
2
Trang 15M in those countries struggling wich the transition to a that growth will primarily benefit capital, create few
more market-based and internationally integrated pat- jobs, and fail to raise wages is unfounded Vier Nam's
work-tern of development, try to design the transition to ers are now some of the poorest in the world If their
coun-make it as rapid as possible withour excessive or perma- try follows the path of other East Asian successes, they
nent costs for labor could enjoy a doubling of their labor incomes in a decade
or so.
Development strategy and workers Market-based development, which encourages firms
A'lanuficturing wages in a group of export-oriented East Asian and workers to invest in phvsical capital, new technologies.
economies rose I 70 percent in real terms between 1970 and and skills, is the best way to deliver growth and rising living
cent Wages ofagricultural liborers in Iildia rose .70 percent help workers by biasing investment against agriculture and
But meanwhkile industrial wages grewt by only 12 percent in a toward industry, protecting the jobs of a favored few
.'aharan African countries, wage increases, or creating unneeded jobs in the public
sec-tor have failed over the long run-whether in l.atin Economic growth is good for workers This has long ica, the former Soviet Union, or elsewhere What anv na-
Amer-been true for those living in what are now the world's rich tion's work force needs most is stronger demand for its
countries, and it has been spectacularly true for the newly services, together with high levels of investment in
school-industrializing economies (NIEs) of East Asia over the past ing training, roads, and machines This has worked best
few decades Growth has reduced poverty through rising where, as in East Asia governments made good use of
in-employment, increased labor productivity, and higher real ternational markets, especially for expanding exports, and
wages (Figure 1) Growth also tends to reduce poverty and gave strong support to family farming The public sectors
inequality, including inequality between men and women in these economies supported the efficient l'unctioning of
For today's low- and middle-income countries, the fear markets by, providing a stable macroeconomic environment
,.~~~~~~~~~~~~~K
Trang 16for saving and investmenit and supportilng the expansion of istic labor markets, and encouraging vigorous growth in
Investment in the skills, health, and nutrition of work- growth with declining poverty and lower inequality Byers is key both to their welfa.re and to economic success But contrast, most Latin American counitries have long hadsome coulitries have performied badly despite invcsting in highly unlequal income distributions, and most still do.schooling Investment-in physical or in htliman capital- with landlholdings heavily concenitrated in the hands of adoes not guarantee growthi (Figure 2) The former centrally few and growth paths biased against labor
an extreme case of high invescitment that led first to stagnat- groups, and between geographic regions are particularly
Market-based, labor-demanding growth also tends to men, because of a heavier burdein of work in tile hiome lessreduce inequality-within countries and across regions- education, or weaker access to better paving jobs Indianprovided governments ensure broad-based investment in schedItled castes are confinied to low-paying work Poor re-the capabilities of people and the complementary assets gions, such as the state of Chiapas in Mexico, usuIally staythat determine their opporttinities It is true that the cen- relativelv poor even when the econonmy as a whole expands.trally planned economies achieved high degrees of equalirv Some of these groLps do gain from development (in partic-and now generally lace some rise in inequality Bttt the East ular, wage differenltials betweent men and womell tsAtallyAsian strategv-of sttpporting family farms, avoiding dual- decline), but others miss our Helping those left otti is one
of the toughest problems for policy, for poor and rich tries alike From a hard-lheaded economic perspective, in-vesting in such peopie may seem a poor risk, because many
'lz -" ^ JI L; Xi : [ ! regions but concern for their misers and for social
cohe-sion demanids that polic' reach out to thenm l'he longer
self-perpetuating intergeierationial cycles of povertv
5
Employment in an integrating world
U Capital per worker The share of manufIctures in developitng count7y exports rose
Low-and middle-income countries i/lratdy accoun t for almost 80
perneet of thbe uorldj induistrial work force.
3
International flows of goods, services, capital, and ple bring new opportunities for most workers Where ex-ports have risen fast, so have real wages-by an average of 3
_which now accouints for 30 percent of capital flows to
low-and middle-income economies, is creating many new jobs:
60 percenit of worldwide growthi in the paYrolls OCf tional corporations occttrred in these coLuntries betweeni
multilia-1985 and 1992 Interinationial migrationi, although so farless of a force for change than either trade or investment,
East Asia Latin Middle South Sub- higlher remittances to those who stay, and increased
prodtic-and the America East prodtic-and Asia Saharan tion of goods and services in the host cointries
services sectors of Asla, have seenI great gains from
internii-Figure 2 Growth rates of GDP and capital per worker Data tional engagement But for sonie it feels as rhotigh
interna-are annual averages for 1960-90 Source: IL0 1986 with IL0 tional integratioti has increased their vulnerabilitv todata updates; Nehru and Dhareshwar 1991; World Bank data volatile international conditions; others-especially those
living in Sub-Saharan Africa-rernai n largelv disconinectedfrom interinational market opportunllties Atid within in-
4
Trang 17dustrial countries there is a small but vocal minority who
fear they will lose from the introduction of new technolo- Wages rose in countries whose export
gies, the growth of international trade, and movements of orientation increased.
capital and people across national boundaries.
Some workers will indeed be hurt if they are stLck in de- - :
clining acrivities and lack the flexibiliry to changc However POO a
international trade, immigration, and capital flows account C -
-for onli a small part of the problem faced by laid-off
work-ers in France, or by unskilled men in the UJnited States who
have seen their wages decline for decades even as the wages
of college gradLiates continue to rise More important
re-stricting trade or capital is not an effective way of dealing t
with this problem-a better strategy for any counitry is to
improve the skills of its people or ease their transition to
new jobs, while staying engaged with the world economy.
Interiational migration, in contrast, is always controlled to
some degree lo the extent this is done to reduce conflict 1.,
while preserving the basic rights of migrants it can actually
hielp sustain moderate levels of international migration.
In anv case, capital now crosses borders ever niore
rapidly despite the best efforts of some national
govern-ments to conTrol it Btit far from rendering national gov- :
ernments impotent, international capital movemenes inten- '
richly rewarding policy when it is sound but punishing it
hard when it is unsound Faster and broader capital flows
and greater openness in trade are making domestic policy
more important for workers Success breeds success,
infor-to attracting or keeping capital and achieving the produc- mal workers by improving che environmIlenLt in whicil thley
tivity necessary to create competitive jobs at rising wages operate In the formal sector public action is sometimes
Btit when policies fail, portfolio investment and local sav- needed to improve marker outcomes, enilance equity, aiid
informal and rural workcrs often mnisr work Llider
Althougl) 90 percent of developing countries have some forn? of sector couliterparts Improved working conditionis are best
social security systemn, at best it (0oely on/v workers in tlje for achieved not by legislation but by direct ptiblic action
af-;nl sector, who make zip just 15 percent of the lbhor force in fecting the working environmenr and the heallth of
work-low-income countries, 45 percent in middle-income countries ers, in areas such as provision of water and sanitation, roads
Labor policies in low- and middle-income countries do The eradication of onchocerciasis (river blindness) in large
not affect the majority of workers who, like Duong in Viet parts of West Africa brought immenise reductions in hulma
Nam, work in the rural or the urban informal sector These suffering and largc increases in labor supply Informal
pub-a formpub-al sector employee epub-arns-pub-and therefore the most in lic transfer programs: public works are usually the best
need of protection Moreover, labor regLilations are often transfer method lor able-bodied men and womnci In
not enforced in many firms that are normally considered India's Maharashtra State, for many years rural workers
part of the modern sector (see Figure 11.2 in Chapter 11) were guaranteed work in public works schemes at the local
income countries should not bother to incervene in the For the formal sector, collective bargaining betweeni
labor market, because their policies will not reach those firms and independent unions is an effectivc way to
deter-who most need help and their regulations will not be eni- mine wages and working conditions Yet governmelits have
forced? The answer is no Public action can complement often repressed unions, as in thc Republic of KoreaL until
Trang 18the 1980s, or politicized the bargaining process, as in over core standards However, it is best to keep multilateral Bangladesh today Sometimes, as in Indonesia, they have trade agreements confined to directly trade-relared issues,
responded to pressures for independent unions by directlv to prevent protectionist interests from misusing such links
raising standards, such as minimum wages, potentialiv at to reduce the trade that workers in low- and the cost of employment Governments do need to establish income countries need if their incomes are to rise As the the rules for labor-management negotiations, spelling out history of trade reform illustrates, even well-intentioned the rights of workers and firms, establishing dispute resolu- and rationally designed discretionary trade measures can be tion mechanisms, and promulgatling basic health and safery captured bv protectionist interests.
middle-regulations which unions can monitor Where unions
cover only a small proportion of the work force, as thev do Managing major changes
in most low- and middle-incomile countries, decentralized Of'the u'orls' 2.5 ibillion lnorkers 1.4 billion live in countries
bargaining tinder conditions of competitive output markets struggling witlh transitions fiom state interventionism niglh
ae-produces the best results This precept has long applied in g'ees oftrdeprotecton, or central planning.
strug-with child labor and in other cases where the market may gling with one or both of tvo major changes in their prodtice adverse outcomes, such as discrimination against opment strategies: from protection to greater integrationwomen But legislation alone has been ineffective It needs with international markets, and from massive state inter-
devel-to be complemented by other policies such as low-cost vention to a market economiiy in which the state plays aeducation and better access for women to formal sector smaller role in allocating resources Thesc chaniges can havejobs India has sound child labor laws yet millions of chil- a powerful labor market dimension ''heir key characteris-dren are working, often in hazardous conditions Child tic is an acceleration in the destruction of unviable jobs andlabor is partly a reflection of poverty But it is not necessary the creation of new ones The process is ofteen accompanied
to wait for a reductioni in the poverry rate to tackle the most by' macroeconomic decline and by' a sharp drop in the life-threatening and demeaning aspects of child labor In mand for labor nationwide In the short term, workersthe town of Pagsanjan in the Philippines, civic action dra- often feel the pain as real wages fill, unlemploymilent rises,matically reduced child prostitution In Brazil, India, and and employment shifts into informal activities In Ar-the Philippines, local action, with public support, is im- gentina, Bolivia Chile, and Mexico, real wages fell by aproving the health status of workinug children and giving third or more before recovering In Bulgaria the Czech Re-
be-Governments also have to set policy for public employ- Rween IS and 40 percent in the first year of transition; in
unemploy-tively BLit in many low- and middle-incomile countries, no- ment rose from negligible levels ro 15 percent or more Buttably in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, the in Ghana and China wages rose durinig thc adjustmentquality of public service has suLfered as its ethos has been process, and unemployment remained low
destroyed by a combination ofoverstaffing, inadeqLiate pay, Economic reform can create opportuniities for someand weak governance Restoring levels of pay and reducing workers but have wrenching effects on others Even thethe number of public workers are often essential reforms, to best-designed reforms produce gainers and losers in the
be combined with improvements in the recruitment, pro- short term Moving the economy' as quickly as possible romotion, and accountability of civil servants, teachers, the new growth path is key to minimiiiziig the pain and so-nurses, and policy'makers The redefinition of the role of cial costs of adjustment; macroeconomic stability and cred-the state makes it all the more important that governments ibility of the overall reform package are therefore critical
be effective in those areas where they do stay involved Countries such as Chile and Estonia have done relatively
If support for the rights of workers to forml Linions and well on these scores and have brought about-or are
bring-to bargain collectively and support for the reduction of ing about-recoveries in wages and employment In child labor make sense in a national context, should these trast, Belarus and Venezuela have faltered and stiffered de-principles be linked to international trade agreements, with clines or stagnation in wages anid employmetic (Figure 4).sanctions for their violation? Advocates of linkage make a Is a strategy of gradual transition better for workers?distinction between "core" standards, which for many Where initial conditions allow gradual job destructionwould be akin ro basic rights and do not directly raise labor wirhout jeopardizing the reform that is needed to generatecosts, and other standards, such as minimum wages, that new jobs gradualisimi makes sense China exemilplifies theare a direct function of the level of development Such a di- truth of this proposition, but that country enjoyed a largevision is sound, and there is a case for international concerin margin for job expansioni, first in agriculture and then in
con-6
Trang 19Wages fall where the transition involves macroeconomic decline, but recover more quickly
where reform is more credible.
< ' - A J /~ ~~' - t -" ~ W W S'' U -'- t'
*1A~ ~ ~ ~~~~1
XY~~~~~~~~~~~
e rlatvl r i i n se n s
quasi-prmare Industri which cola d r tihe costsrfcinici of to sociac l servinees Irof ete plotrisek n t d e o liberelize
hoeis-the relativelv inef'ficeieit state sector In m01st oLher countries ing markets arc requlired BL., ir is also iiliporrant to
coil-eitlher mi-acroeconoiilic inmbalancc or the costs of inefficieiir sidcr the ineeds of chose at risk of steep inconic decililles
Microeconomic policies that atfect the miobility and in- can help certain groups of workers but is unlikely to
pro-comes of workers can play a major role both in influencing v'ide a panacea
the overall pace of change and in safeguardinig the welfare
generally involve action in three areas: enhancinig mobility, About 99 percent of the I billion or so workers projected to
reducing income insecurity, and equlipping workers for join the world's labor force over the next thirty years will
it' will often involve measures to allow job destruction, in- Some groups of relatively poor workers have experienced
cluding large layoffs from the ptiblic sector, to rtL1 its large gainis in the past tlhirty years-especially in Asia But
course In manv cotintries measLires to separate entitlement there is no worldwide trend toward convergence between
Trang 20rich atnd poor workers Indeed, there are risks that workers domestic policies that promotes labor-demanding
growvth-in poorer countries will fall further behgrowvth-ind, as lower growvth-invest- and sound labor policy
workers, especiallv in Sub-Saharan Africa, could become world The legacy of the past can make change difficult orincreasingly marginalized And those left otit of the general frightening Yet realization of a new world of work, inprosperiry in countries that are enjoying growth could sutf- whichl all groups of workers are included in a dynamic offer permanent losses, setting in motion intergenierational rising incomes, better working conditions, and enhanced
There is a substantial risk that inequality benveen rich choicts-in the internlational and the domestic realm Theand poor will grow over the coming decades, whiile povertv right choices involve using markets to create opportuiities.deepens Btit it need not be so if countries choose the right taking care of those who are vtilnerable or left olUt, and pro-international and domestic policies Preserving open trad- viding workers with the conditions to make their jobing relations, preventing rich country tiscal deficits from choices freely, bargain over their conditions of work, andcrowding out investimient elsewhiere, and delivering high take advantage of better educational opportulliies for theiranid stable growth in the highi-income countries will main- children Duong, Hoa, Franc,oise, and Jean-Paul-and mil-tain global demand and help head off any protectionist lions of workers like thenm-all have a powerftul interest inpressures in rich couintries that might result from persis- good policy Thev and their families have to live with the
8
Trang 21CHAPTER 1
Introduction:
TlHF L OBAL LABO-R FORCE HAS GROWN But chere can be no guarantee that the poorest workers
massively In recent decades In 1995 there will see their living standards rise Not evervonc has shared
are an estimated 2.5 billion men and in the rising prosperity of recent decades-indecd, many
womeni of working age in the world's labor countries and evcn whole regions have seen little increase in
force, almost rwice as many as in 1965 Es- their incomes per capita Inequality, both across regions
timates project a further worldwide increase of 1.2 billion and wvithin countries, remains a significant feature of the
by 2025 This expansion, moreover, has been geographi- global economy By one estimate, in 1870 the average
in-callv skewed Since 1965 growth in the labor sUpply has come per capita of the richest coultlries Was eleven times
varied substantially across regions: from 40 percent in the that of the poorest; that ratio rose to thirty-eight in 1960
world's high-income economies to 93 percent in South Asia and to fif-rt-two in 1985
and 176 percent in the Middle East and North Africa And Will this pattern of rising prosperity unequiallV shared,
99 percent of the projected growth in the labor force from persist? Two systemic shifts in the world's economies are
nlOW to 2025 swill occLIr in what are toda's low- and mid- profoundly affecring labor's outlook into the next
the poorer regions makes the task of raising the living stan- through state action This shift is seen most clearly in the
dards of the world's poor seem dauniingm-even impossible demise of Soviet-sryle socialism, but government activism
Yet the evidence of recent decades does not support has come under scrutiny in almost every country in the
prophiecies of doom and gloom-of overpoptilation, mass world The second change is that markets have becomc
unemployment, and deepening poverty Despite these tin- steadily more integrated, both within and between nations
precedented increases in labor supply, the worlds median This globalizing trend has been driven by breakthroughs in
of~~~~~~~~~~~~~o the world's lakw force.
Trang 22~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,-and above all by the opening of national markets to
take advantage of interinationial opportuniitics, and to relyincreasingiv on market forces rather than the state in allo-
HW&Mncomr economIss (547 mililon) cating resources
economiically' inteurited world meianis for workers 'Xe
best able to raise the incomes and working conditions ofworkers? Does growing integration offer an opportiuity orpose a threat to workers, especially those in the world's
n:market policy in improving labor market outcomes:
effi-ciency of markers, equity of incomes, and income
ritv, and workplace standards? How can countries making
miar-ket to onie open to internationial transactions, take account
of the needs of labor? This chapter frames the diSCtIssion by'outlininig the wide variation in, and the impact of policy
; 6 % | Wage | 3 and employment outcomes
every-where: families seek to meet their basic needs, improve theirstandards of living, manage the risks they tace in an uncer-: Worc l n scono_ M Mnillon) *6 tain world, and expand opportunities for their children
But the opportullitLes to achieve thesc objectives through
of development Well over half of the world's
working-age popLulation, somc 2) billion people, live in
low-income economies wherc annual low-income per capira wasbelow $695 in 1993 Another 40 million elderly workersand a reported 50 million to 60 million children are at
X j -f work BecaLlse of widespread tinderreportinig, child labor
About one-third of the working-age population in thelow-income economies are not cmployed, some becausethey are attending school, raising children, or caring for
j i;. i: _: i or unable to find employment (Figurc 1.1) But the
major-; d | gAgriculture tEl : Unemployed I iry are employed, and it is their low earnings at work, not
i
industry Not in labor force those at work, nearly six out of ten are engaged in
agricul-S
services sector than in industry (mining, manutfactiring,construction, and utilities) Only about 15 percent of the
R on* 1.1 The wors wotidng4g popWiaUon by sector and labor force earn a living in the formal economy, defined as
coat nccmgroup o Data are 1995 estimates for a \vaoe-pav'ing nonag'ricultur piaefrnadthpu'I
sample of countries In each group Percentages may not total - n i ral private firms and the public
0130 because of rounding, Source: World Bank staff estimates sector
based on the following: EBRD 1994; ILO 1986 with iL0 data The situation in the high-inicome economies is
strik-updates; ILO, various years; and country sources ingly different There, too, about one-third of the
working-age population is outside the labor force or unemployed
10
Trang 23Nearly all the rest, however, about 350 million strong, work with rising incomes, increasing urbanization, and sweeping
for wages The services sector employs more than six out of economic transitions, it has become more prevalent in a
try Agriculture employs 3 percent of the labor force Some Just as employment oppor[ullities vary substantially
30,000 children are estimated to be working The situation across countries and regions, so do wages (Figure 1.2)
Ad-in middle-Ad-income countries lies Ad-in between the low- and justed for differences in their currencies' purchasing power,
the high-income cases Forty percent of all those of working the earnings of engineers in Frankfurt, Germanv are
fifty-age are not employed, about a third are in the formal econ- six times those of unskilled female textile workers in
oniy (that is, working as regular, wage-earning employees in Nairobi, Kenya (Box 1 1) Part of this gap can be traced to
indusrry or services), about a fifth are in agriculture, and the occupational pay structure wvithin each domestic
econ-the remainder are in some type of informal employment omy-the pay ratio of engineers to female rexiile workers is
Over 7 million children in middle-income countries are re- eight to one in Nairobi and three to one in Frankfurt And
those seeking work but unable to find any-is aboLit 3 per- seven to one, and that of German to Kenyan female textile
cent of the working-age population (about 5 percent of the workers is eighteen to one The 40 percent of the world's
labor force), although differences in national definitions and working-age population who work on family farms and in
measurement difficulties make this estimate imprecise Un- the informal sector typically earn far less than even
un-employment is often higher in high-income economies, but skilled urban workers-if the returns to their labor were
- - - sly across the international wage hierajt
Trang 24added to the pictuire, the spread in earniings, domestically as worker is high, a small fractioni of the work force will be
enl-,well as Internationally, would be even greater gaged ini agriCuLtIure, because the economy's demnanid forBesides these cross-COuintry diffetences in wage anid emi- food can be met by a small number of highly' productiveploymnent outcomnes, within countries thete ate sipgnificant domestic farmers, or by the profitable exchange of goodsdifferences betweenl meni anid wom-eni In miost societiles made bv hig,hly productive Industrial and service workerswomen work more hours for lower pay Women ate en- for food ptoduced abroad Across occupations, eng'ineersgaged disproportionately in the homie, lookinig after chil- earn more than textile workers because the market value ofdren and miaintaining thec huusehold-activities that fall a year's work spent designing a miachine that produces tex-
ouitside the miarket In mianiv countries wumen receive less tiles is miuch greater than that of a year's stpplx' of clotheducationl, often are underrepresented in good jobs, and produced by the worker operatling it Within occupations.Usually get paid less than mien even for the same work, pay differences across COuIntries reflect the average level ofThese differences miay flowv from Cuiltural nlormns, but thev' economy'-u'ide productiviry' If a bus driver in Seoul earns
lead to gender inequiality anid to inefficient use of a societc's three timies as much as a buis driver in Bombay, it is niot
In-stead, the higher level of labor productivity In the Korean
Why some workers have done better than others economy' overall, and hence the higher level of incomes WVhy are there stich large differences in employlmenit and there, miean thiat, on the one hand, the bus drivers must be
earninigs, and hience in standardis of living, across regionis? paid enotigh to persuade them to drive a bus rathier than doWhy does agriculture occupy so few working men and som-ething else for a li'ving, while on the other, conStimerswomien in the high-income economiies, but over half the in Seoul are willing and able to pay' mnore for a bus ride thani
labor force in thie lowv-income countries? And wvhv is there conSuImers in Bormbay
employ-within an economy' and amrong wvorkers performing simiilar m-ent are determined in the labor mark-et, where
Differences in labor market outcomnes can miainlyv be demand it Where the miarket sets the price and quantity oftraced back to the productiviry of labor-the quantit' and labor, labor productivity must increase in order for wages to
value of labor's contribution to output WVhen output per rise and employment opporrtinities to expanid T'his in turni
1 2
Trang 25requires expansion in producrive capaciry; that is,
employ-ers and households must mobilize savings to finance invest- Regional differences in the growth of labor
ments in physical capital, new technologies, and worker productivity widened during the 1980s and
and compelled to pay higher wagcs: able because of the
labor that is becoming increasingly productive across a
try differences in today's earinigs largely reflect changes !*19B9OI
Jakarta, Bombay and Nairobi were more similar than they
are today Some of these cities are located in economies that
ting significant growth in labor incomes (Figure 1.3)
The greatest successes have occurred in East Asia, where E]
and in South Asia, where average labor productivity dou- I4
bled over the same period Approximately rwo-thirds of the
workinig-age populations of the lows- and middle-iniconie
risen since 1980 But in Africa, Latin America, the Mvfiddle
In fact, the rate of decline has accelerated during the 1990s
in all of these regions except Latin America Explaining Flgure L3 Growth of GDP pw wovrke by reloon Europe and
Key to understanding lnow tne world can productively
absorb its growing work force
Three patterns
Rapid growth in output per worker in countries such as the is less enviable: many countries imposed rcstrictions on
Republic of Korea, Indonesia, and, most recently, China unions, and some have endured labor-related violence
has brought rapid growth in the incomes of wage workers However, there is no evidence to suggest thai such
restric-and the self-employed, together with a swift influx of rural tions were necessary for East Asia's economic success
services All of these East Asian economies invested heavily and South Asia most countries pursued, to varying degrees
in physical and human capital-s'ith special emphasis on inward-oriented development paths that protected certainl
developing huliman resources throughout the population industries and were biased against agriculture These
strate-Effective engagement in interniational markets has been key gies benefited a limited numiiber of "insiders"-capital
At-primary products or in manufactures This strategy in- tempts to maintain these workers' privileged positions often
cluded strong support for agricuilture, especially for family were based on institutional interventions-prohibitions on
farms, and mostly avoided sharp divides betwveen modern firing in Latin America or featherbedding of public
em-sector and rural workers A strong export orientation re- ployment in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa-rather
duced economic rents, and labor policy did nor favor privi- than on raising labor demand or improving productivity
leged groups of workers East Asia's record in labor relations The consequences were slow growth in labor demand,
Trang 26g4 R
especially in those industrial sectors that depended mainly how to take effective public action that supports the
effi-on the domestic market, and a relatively large gap berween cient functioning of markets, encourages productive workers in the formal sector and those working in the less ment and responds to the particular needs of workers whoprivileged rural and informal sectors A few countries, espe- are discriminated against or otherwise disadvantaged.cially in South Asia, were able to achieve large gains for Part Two assesses the consequences of ongoing interna-rural workers through effective support for family farms tional developments for workers, with an emphasis on theirand adoption of new technologies But even there labor's likelv future course Economic integration is creating a
The centrally planned economies, especially those of Eu- with other countries Trade, migration, and capital flows allrope and Central Asia, were for decades exemplars of an have the potential to improve the welfare of workers, espe-economic model antithetical to the market model of the cially in poorer countries, with trade by far the most impor-high-income industrial countries Regarding themselves as tant channel But this potential will be realized only if do-champions of labor, they delivered both rising wages and mestic policy is sound In a world of mobile capital, successcradle-to-grave protection for their workers-and saw no is well rewarded but failure punished hard With increas-need for free, independent trade unions Like the East Asian ingly open trade, workers in countries that do not keep upeconomies they iinvested heavily in machines and skills, but with improvements in their competitors' productivity willunlike Eaist Asia they weakened or destroyed family farming reap smaller gains
and pushed rather than attracted workers into industry- Part Three turns to the role of government policy infollowing a path dictated by a development strategy that labor markets and assesses what types of policies make sense
was from international markets Massive investments failed F-or a market-based strategy to succeed, governments must
to offset severe resource misallocaLions and a lack of techno- establish labor policies to deal with basic worker rights, logical dynamism NYage stagnatiot1, shortages, a back-ward criminarion and inequality, income security, and the gov-services sector, and some of the world's worst industrial ernment's own role as an emplover Such policy must takepollution were all signs of the failure of central planninig to market realities into account Rather than dictate outcomes,
in-Two of these rhree divergent paths have reached their formal sector soltitions and the outcomes of negotiated inevitable dead ends Many workers are worse off than they lutions between workers and emplovers in the formal sector
trally planned economies alike have been going through to negotiate with each other and should avoid helping a fewmajor changes toward greater reliance on international and insiders at the expense of the vast number of poor outsiders
macroeconomic shocks, in part driven by a radical turn- major shifts from protectionism and central planning around in policy-have usually brought wrenching changes tial conditions and macroeconomic policies matter for the
Ini-to workers in the transitional period before growth recovers patb of wage and employment outcomes Inevitably [here
are winners and losers, but the sooner economies begin to
The scope of this Report grow, the fewer are those workers who suffer permanent
This Report undertakes to explain how labor outcomes can losses Labor market policies can facilitate restructuring bv
be so extraordinarily different in different parts of the encouraging wage flexibility and labor mobility, by world, and how good policy choices can bring abouc desir- ing transfers targeted to the casualties of transformation,able changes in the lives of workers Part One reviews the and by adopting certain measures designed to help workers
from the perspective of what they have meant for workers With effective policy, there is great potential for the
It analyzes the relationship between the determinants of world's expanding labor force to enjoy significant gains in
guaran-resource development And it explores the relationship be- teed If poor countries do not pursue marker-based policies,rween inequality and the path of development It concludes or if the trend toward greater global integration is halted bvthat high and broad-based investment in people and capital protectionism, the future could instead witness slow growthand reliance on markets can bring rapid and relatively equi- and increasing global inequalitv The Report's concludingtable growth in labor incomes The policy issue is not one chapter reviews the implications of the earlier chapters'
of laissez-faire versus government intervention; rather it is analysis for workers in the twvenrt-first cenury
14
Trang 27PART ONE
Which Development
Strategies Are Good for
Workers?
than either centrally planned or protectionist mies But how does growth affect workers? And what is the role of governments in supporting rising incomes for workers and their families? In this part of the Report
econo-we examine the relationship betecono-ween long-term velopment and the fortunes of workers We survey the consequences of economic growth for workers in Chapter 2, and the nature of interactions between households and labor markets in Chapter 3 We then,
de-in Chapters 4 and 5, look at how policy choices can affect the growth of labor demand and the provision of skills Finally, in Chapter 6, we ask how market outcomes affect inequalities in how the rewards of growth are distributed.
Trang 28noiic Growth and
govern-ers Low- anid middle-income countries can- ments started out with different development strategies.not sustain the growth they need without The result has been wide differenccs in economic growthmaking the best use of their working-age rates and labor outcomes (Figurc 2.1)
labor demand has been achieved by countries that have re- relied on government intervention in allocating resources,lied on markets-domestic and international-to guide the for example through extensive use of state-rin produceprocess of development, whereas inward-looking and cen- marketing boards and stringent controls on foreign ex-trally planned strategies have generally failed to brinig sus- change Malaysia also adopted various forms of interven-tainable gains to all workers But the choice for govern- tion, including protected public enterprises and a broadments today is not simply between free markets and state program of redistribution But Malaysia's overall strategyinterventioni Thle task is to determine which kinds of pub- relied heavily on market processes; capital markets werelic intervention best support the efficient frinctioninig of open and the economy' faced ourvward In Poland resourcesmarkets, most encourage produicLive investiment in plant, wvere allocated not by the marker but bv central planners.technology, and people, and can assist disadvantaged work- Output targets were chosen and inputs allocated without
par-This chiapter inivestigates wh' some countries grow faster ticipation in international markets was limited mainly tothan others, focusing on three countries that have hiad very centrally negotiated trade with other planned economies
vestment in physical capital and in people And it considers and a modest recovery, whichi began in the late 1980s and
Meanwhile Ghana's working-age population doubled from
How do development strategies affect abotir 3.5 million to 7.8 million Unemplovment continued
labor outcomes? to account for only' a small percentage of the labor force: theGhana Malaysia, and Poland are typical of their regions- working-age population in 1989 was distributed roughly asSub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, and Eastern Europe The it had been rhirry years earlier (Table 2.1) Seltfemploymentworking-age populationis of all three economies have grown in urbani and rural areas contintied to absorb more than half
1 6
Trang 29of the workinig-age population Anothier quarter were out- one in ten workers did Wage employment tripled betweeni
side the labor force-raising children attending school, or 1957 and 1989, wili e the share of thl work force employed
unable to work Only 14 percent of the working-age popu- in agriculture fell from 58 percent to 26 percent
in public employment Private wage employment as a share with nCr material product (GDP excluding most public
Malaysia's economy took off over this same period, and capital investment by 9.7 percent a year The popillation
the ntimber of households living in absolute poverty fell grew slowly, at about 1.2 percenti a year, and there was no
dramatically Malaysia achieved growth in GNP per capita unemilployvilenit-rhe statc guaraniteed workers jobs The
of 4 percent a year, despite a surge in the working-age pop- government moved thousands of workers from farmis to the
ulation from 4.2 million to 10.4 million-a larger and cities and pushcd tenis of thousands of women into the
faster increase than Ghania experienced As in Ghana, labor labor force But growthi proved unsustainable-it was based
force participation rates changed little ovcr rime, and tin- primarily on increasing the amount of capital and utlilbers
employmienit accounted for only a small percentage of the of workers rather than on raisinig the productivity of capital
labor force What changed was wage employmenit, whicih and labor ProductivitV slowed in the late 1 G60s, bLit heavsy
rose, and self-employmenit, which fell, as jobs in indtistry foreign borrowinig postponed the crisis until eventually
and services increased dramatically (Table 2.1) In 1957 Poland's economy' stopped growing altogether By 1992,
one in tvo employees worked on plantations; by 1989 only GDPI was 9 perceint lower thani it had beeni in 1980
Over-Real wages in Ghana, Malaysia, and Poland have followed different paths.
Trang 30all, between 1955 and 1990 the working-age populacion did rIot work for w;ages experienced significanr gains in expanded from 7/ million to 25 million The share of the their earnings from wvork Selftemployed workers such as working population engaged in wage employment had in- street vendors, hairdressers, and truck drivers saw growth in creased but so had the number of untmploved and the their earnings thar equaled or even exceeded the incrcase in numnber living below the poverty line, manufacturing waiges (Tible 2.2).
Wage increases mirrored aggregate economic perfor- Real wages in Poland also followed charnges in G1)P' mance in all three couLntries Average real wages in manu- Real wage growth remained high in the 1 970s, even higher factLrinig in Ghana remained roughly constant in the than in Malaysia But in the 1980s Polanid's wages fell, then 1960s but as growth [urined negative, the purchasinig stagnated, and unemiiployment rose in the 1990s Poland power of wages in manufacturing collapsed: by 1984 real was uLiable to sustain the past gains in the welfare of its wages had plunged to 13 percent of their level a decade ear- workers Real earninigs in manufacturing dropped by a lier; agricultural wages also collapsed (Figure 2.1) Had quarter betweeni 1981 and 1991 (FIigure - 1).
household incomes fallen as nIucl as real wages, most fain- Nlalaysian workers thus have beneCited from economic
ilies would have starved Instead Ghanaianis adjusted to growth, wvhile Poles and Ghanaians have suffered from afalling wages in various ways Farm families able to con- lack of it [lese countries are not uLiqtic Fvidence onsume t[heir own production had some protectioni against long-uln wage trends in low- and middle-incomne countrieseconomic stagnation and rapid inflation Urban workers is not abundant, bhut in thosc countries for which daia areheld several jobs or migrated back to rural areas: some faim- available long-term growth is associated with risilng realilies relied on transfers from other households )nlv re- wages in agriculmtre and manuCilcturing (Figure 2.2) T'hiscenrly have manufacturing wages started to rise again with is not surprising: GDP ( 'meastires ihe value added by all f-tc-
Malaysian workers, in contrast, have reaped the benefits measure value added by labor If GDP per worker is
growA-of economic growth: all the major sectors experienced sus- irg, then value added per worker nitist be growing-andtained increases in real wages, while more workers found under most circuMstLances so musr wages
plantation wages and real earnings in manufacturinwg have of workers In poor countries most labor is engaged in doubled since the early 19 70s Most entrants to the labor tively low-productiviry self-emplOIymeIlt in agriculture orforce joined the modern industrial and service econoMV:, services But as couL1tries grow richer, more workers movewhere the average wages of workers in manutIacturifg were into higher productivity, higher- wage employnment in in-rwice those of general plantation workers Even those who dustry and services (Figure 2.3) 'I'his transformation results
rela-from growsvh, but it also paves the wasy for fuLrther growsth
and increases in living standards Fhe formalization of
em-ployment relations is associated vwith increased
income securitr
wage tincreasepS ;andated by government V:xpanding
- quc-evcs of growthi and cctiiods v-widc incr -eases in outpiut
$i_ - 0 .$.X X si ;- t these outcomes througil investimenit decisionis bv firms,
3S5 0 zhouseholds, and government The scarch for mtlorc
prof-itable activities enCOu1rar`eS businesses svhether famin iftarms, informal sector enterprises, or large corporations-
-8 tro nvs est in equipment ness' technology md the training ofworkers Houisehoilds, seekinIg higher earnings fromi thehouirs thecy spend at wvork, will inivest in their ownv human.11
;-iitvestirsg inl public goods sucih as riral roads But a
nsarket-18
Trang 31Long-term economic growth is strongly correlated with wage growth in agriculture and
based developmenit strategy means that governments, above nificantly increased their investment-GDP ratios, from an
all, must enable businesses and households to invest in average of 22 percent in 1965 to an average of 35 percenit
themselves, for example by protecting property rights and in 1990 Human capital also increased rapidly: betweeni
The evidenice linking economic growthi to investment is increased trom 92 percent to 102 percent, and the gross
overvhelming For individuals, more schoolinig is strongly secondary school enrTollment rate went from 27 percent to
associated with increases in labor productivity and greater 37 percent (gross enrollent rates include pupils who are
earning power (Chapter 5) At an aggregate level, the couni- not of the customary school age, and thus can exceed 100
tries that have sustained high levels ofeconomic growth are percent of the relevant population) No other region
those that have experieniced rapid increases in their stocks matched this overall pattern of investment or the resulting
the high-performing developing economies of East Asia sig- increased earnings
Trang 32The relationship betwreci invcstnient and econiomilic that regularly invested more thlto 20 percenit of
(,DP-growth is captured by cross-counitry data comparinig long- including China in the 1 970s, the former Soviet Union, Srirull (1960-85) growth rates in (IGIP per worker with rc- Lanka, and Tanzania-did not grow quickly Changes incent estimates of the accuLImulation of physical capital and workers average years of schooling are also weakly linked
of years of schoolinig of workers (Figure 2.4) A sample of to Faster growti Many African countries expanded theirover sixty low- and middle-income counitries, covering all educational systems, raising the average years of schoolingregions except the tranisitionial economies of Furope and of their lahor force, but have seeni little correspondingCentral Asia (for which comparable measures of investimieint growth
are nlot yer available), exhihits a positive relationship be- This far-fromil-automatic relationiship hetweeni
implica-Fast-growing economies invest more but investinient tions First growth depends not only on how quickly alone does not necessarily- deliver faster growth-the link puts are accuLiiulated, but also on the quality of those
in-between investimienit arid productivity' growth is far from inputs, the technology enibodied in themi, and how aurtoiiatic Marny econoriiies expanded their stocks of ciently they are emploved Fast-growing ecoiionies did llot
effi-physical arid human capital per worker yet experienced low simiply' invest more but conihirsed physical capital arid
edu-or even negative produrctivity growth rates Some coulitries cared workers in ways that increased outpLut per worker
20
Trang 33Investment in physical and human capital is necessary but does not guarantee
'Fliis finidingl- poliiis to thie cr-itical role of governiiielit policv ing technlologics and so aclilieve miorc rapid OLULpLU growth
in creacinig anl environmient that CUICOUr;agts produtctive Racher wXhit weakeris clie relatrioniship i's rhldt %forkcrs
Seconid, the relationis[iip berwceii ilvestlmeilL ill huLliiaii distorted, low-growti enivironiiients that etind Lo scaire otff
capital and productivity growth is muILch weaker rtiaii th.at private iinvestiiicit in p hvsical capital OllC reasoil iS that
betwcen Investmenit in pIIVsicdl caplial anid prodLuctivity capital is miore nmobile anid cani imorc ealsily seek oLut bctter
growth, ;1S Figure 2.4 sliows BLIt this is not to sLIggest that opportu,11llteS in otlher regionts or coLuntries Anioliler is that
hultiian capital is less iimportaiit to growL11 Detailed econ(o- 1hoLSelloldS inay coiirinLIe to invcst ill CdLiCatiOll becaLuse
mietric studies fiind iinvestiiieiir rates .tnd initiall ciidow- theCy ldVC loIlger rLlil lilvestillenlt liorizols Or becCaLlse ptublic
mieiits of edLICa[ioI1 to be robLIsr pr-edictors of subsequienr SLbsidies, t)v lowcriiig privale cosLs contlinue Lo miake
edLu-growth Other Lbings equal, the miore educated a natioln's cation a wvorrhiwhile private inivestiiieiir HOLuSeholds rmay
workers, thie greaLer their potentiall to catchl LIp wirh prevail- also invcst in schlooling eveii wlien it does not ti-atislate into
Trang 34regions, differing by only a few tenths of a percentage
_ * ** a * a" point (The lone exception is the Europe and (entral Asia
1960s.) Buit differeinces in GDP growth rates were huge, asFigure 2.5 shows In Easr Asia outptit growth exceeded ex-
pansioni of the working-age population by an average of
dif-Normfl Africa Growth of: ference was less than 1.5 percentage points; anld in
Africa Working-age population benh been high average OLItpLIt 9ha per worker has grown rapidly,
doubling every fifteen years in East Asia compared with
but the causality appears to rnii the other way than often
then slower labor supply growth The Republic of Korea'sworking-age population was growing at a rapid 2.8 percent
an increaste in labor suppIV as participation rates of women
Percent per year planining efforts, Korean households begall to choose to
have fewer children As fertilitv declined, families invested
Figure 2.5 GrowUt rates of GIDP and the worfdnhage more in each ch ild they had, increasing the average numliber
populaton by r.0on Data are for 1965-93 Source: ILO 1986 of vears thev spent in school A growinig economy also
en-with ILO data updates; World Bank data,
abled govermilent and houseldlds to devote more resotircesper pupil, improving the quality of Korea's edticationtem Investimient in htlimani capital helped to sustain Koreasrapid growth rates and closed the virtuous circle betweenhigher levels of labor produLctivity because they' valtie other economic growth and labor supply Today Korea, like maliv
demo-uraphic transition from hiigh to low fertilirv rates anl fIsces
Economic growth and labor supply the global marketplace withi a slow-growiilgI higihly skilled,
Does rapid population growth depress growth and living and increasingly well-compenisated work force
have too many workers soulids perstiasive Economic fItture labo siupply in areas wlhec ecoiiomic growth is growth requires rising productiviry (oLIptip per worker), so nanlt and populationIs contin1ue to grow rapi(dly, as in mticimore workers should, other things equal, mean lower pro- of Africa and the Middle East 'Ihere are no easy answers ItdtIctivity But other things are not equal More workers takes abouLt rwents' yealrs for lowered fertility rates to appre-mean more outptit And grow-th in otitput depends on the ciably slow the growth of the labor supply And in the shortquantity and productivitv of all inputs including physical rin, lowering fertilitv can increase labor supply if womllencapital human capital, and techinology as well as the Mini- who would have beeni rearinlg child(reni instead join the laborber of workers Population growth need nor have an adver-se force If the goal is to raise labor incomies resotirces willeffect on investment, nor need it depress the productivity of have a higher returln if used to encourage increases in labor
Poor labor oLticoioes may have little to do with the race sooner thaii will direct attemiipts to redtice future labor
sup-of growth sup-of labor stippIv Indeed, in recent decades, differ- ply While slowing population growth is this 110 substituteences in the growth of potential labor supply in low- and for efforts to increase labor demand, there is reasoni to em-middle-income economies do not explain differences in phasize social policies thar contribuite to a decline in fertil-labor market conditions Durinig 1965-9.3, growth rates of ity-edutcationi of girls improvemiieints in womeni s sta[us.the working-age poptilationi wese remarkably similar across and investments in reproductive health and fLmily plan-
22
Trang 35niig These inte-venitions can be justified in terms of their in Ghana before its reforms But simply increasing the
contribution to individual and family health and welfare stock of physical capital and years of schooling will not
encour-workers to move to higher paid, high-productivity jobs in ages enterprises and households to invest for the future in a
the formal sector, as Malaysia's experience demonstrates In- productive and profitable maniner can sustain rising labor
vestment in physical capital and in people is key to cco- demand Such a strategy will enable low- and
ment, wages stagnate and living standards fall, as they did raise the wages of their often rapidly growing labor forces
T051 [EPI.h WFHATFA'ER THEIR middle-income countries, labor time is their primary race, nation.ality, or the stage of de- source
re-velopment of their cotintry spend
/ | m~iiost of their lives worl;ing for a li-h lo fi7rce par}ticipationS
M ing T Econom ic growth and rising in- Housellolds most decide how to allocate thcir collective
come per capita have a dramatic effect on the typle of work labor time between home-based and market activity
houselholds do, the inicomilcs they receive, the way thev Household incomile and the wages each member
com-manage their rime, the sectors in which they work, and manids will infIuencc their decisions Low wages will not
whether to migrate Rising labor productiviry and higher always mcan long hours of work In Ghania and Malaysia
real wages affect decisions abotit who in the household evidenice from household surveys suggests that workers
should work, who shotild reccive educaltion and how from families in the bottom 40 percent of the income
dis-much, and how households deal with risk and income se- tribiitioll worked 1 S to 20 percent fcwer hotirs on average
ctiritv For cmployers, higher productivity affects labor de- than did individuals from the top 20 percent This finding
manld, the organization of production, and the nature of is probably due to a lack of opportullities, cspecially in
employment contracts The interactioni of households' stip- rtiral areas But at some point rising labor productivity and
ply of labor and employers' demaid for it yields the em11- highier real wages raise hotIsehold incomes enough so that
This chapter maps out the changes in household labor benefits of the sustained economiiic growth of todays
higi-decisions and the organization of employment relation- incomile industrial coLintries has becii an almost 40 percent
ships that development brings It theln looks at what deter- decline in hotirs worked per personi per year, fiom lan
aver-mines unnemiiplovmenit in r ich and poor couLtries ige of 2,690 in 190()0 to 1,630 in 1986
Households most also decide who will work and in
Household decisions and labor supply what activities As work is conventionally measured, men
Households evervwvhcre have limited resources with which work more than womienll In a wide range of coun1triCs
al-to meet their objectives For most, especially in low- and most all men betweeni twenty-five and fifty-four are
Trang 36directly engaged in income-generating ictivities, xhether in Among those wvho participate in market activities, wage the home, on the familv farm or enterprise, or in the labor employmenit is most common amongr the young; the inci- market (Figure 3 1) Differences berween countries are con- dence of self-employmcnt anid entrepreneurship increases
fined to the youLng and the old For example, a much larger with age; and unemploymcnt is highest among youlIg
fraction of male teenagers and elderly men wvork in Uganda workers (who are more likely to change jobs) This sIggests than in Brazil, in part because of different income levels that, for a number of individuals, wage employment is a and hence different schooling and retirement patterns, way to start out, earn some income and learn skills, save,
fpj X; , , 0t0f 3 LbO fore5 patcpte r;u ,~ sa g Dt ,z 19 esrnae SouroG X; IL ±98 wIi )L Of00 ;S0
de0; a0;00', updtes:g';;.,;' :0 f X0 0:0 : : 0j,, 9 ;00.; 0 : :
Trang 37and ultimately set up an independent business Figure 3.2
provides a snapshot of the working-age population in one Labor force participation, wage employment, and
country Malaysia, showing how time allocation varies by unemployment all vary by age and gender.
age and sex
But the conventionial definitioni of "work"
tivities other than agriculture is rarely counted In almost all Percent
societies most households assign to womeni the bulk of chil- 100 ITII TT
in significant ways as development proceeds Female
work At still higher levels of income per capita, female
plain why Japan, Romania, and Uganda have higher female
Percent
to move away, either temporarily or permanently Migra- 50
tion also reflects a desire to diversify income
examples inclLide Indoniesiani farm laborers traveling to
urbani employment opportunities and encouirage workers
rorted by policies biased against agricUlture and toward O Wage worker
behavior needs to be understood as a hoLisehold response to
opportunlities elsewhere, which means that attempts to
How many children a couple has largely reflects preferences
aboLIt family size Children of poor rLiral houselholds are an
Trang 38important source of farm labor and of security in old age for wages, and employment relationships become With development, most families desire fewer children, as ingly' formal, varied, and complex Many forces typically employment opportunities and the market value of a come into play in eliciting and monitoring etFort, sharing woman's time increase and womeni opt to have fewer chil- risks, and ensuring fairness Arrangements thar work well at dren At the same time, rising incomes decrease the eco- one stage of development may not ftinction later as the nomic value of children as family workers and as a substi- economy evolves.
increas-tute for either public or more formal private systems of The predominant form of labor organization in income securirv including old age support tional economies is the family enterprise, typically a farm.
tradi-As wealthier parents choose to have fewer children, they Its main advantage is that the hotisehold reaps all the gains also invest more heavily in them, especially in the form of from its activity, so that all members have a direct interest
more edtucation In most countries girls get less education in working productively; the disadvanitages are small size
than boys-substantially so in South Asia and the Middle and limited resotirces Econiomies of scale are not East-but in some regions, notably in Latin America girls tant when most of production is agricultural; even where actually get more education Less schooling for girls reflects new techniques involvinig mechanization initially confer fewer economic opportunities for women, as well as direct advantages on farmis of larger size, rental markets usually cultural influences A feature of East Asian development develop that allow small farms to make use of them Larger
impor-was a rapid expansion of the educIation of girls as well as farms usually do have better access to credit, but this is
gen-boys, bringing benefits to the next generation More- erally outweighied by the advantages family farms have in educated mothers generally devote more household re- eliciting effort Family farrms and other small-scale enter- sources to the nItrition and upbringing of their children prises remain efficient forms of labor organization for mtich and give higher priority to their education The ctimulative production in poorer societies.
eftect of these household decisions is a slower growing and Even where ftamily firms and hotisehold enterprises increasingly skilled work force-aftcr a lag of some fifteen dominate, other rypes of employment relationiships coexist.
work, for example by fruit pickers, taxi drivers, and
tempo-Dealinjg with risk rarv workers In rhis part of the labor market productivity is
A pervasive concern of households is how to manage the easily measured, and piece rates are acceptable to workers risks they face, whether of crop failure unemployment, ill and employers as a fair system of rewards Demand for this health, or incapacity in old age Part of a household's strat- labor is a function of the value of a workers contribution to egy for allocating its labor time involves dealing with the output while supply depends on how mtich individuals risks of temporary or permanent falls in income Even poor value their time (or what they can earn elsewhere) As em- working households find ways of dealing with economic ployment opportunities expand, this type of labor service uncertainty and succeed in having much less variation in becomes more specialized, and often a prearranged pay- consumption than in income This is achieved by a variety ment for services is required to secure labor supply at the
of mechanisms-the reallocation of labor rime, fertility arid appropriate time Labor con tractors emerge as important marriage decisions, financial savings, transfers within the actors in this context, as they did in the fruit industry boom family or from the community, or borrowing Fertility deci- of the 1 980s in the north of Chile These entrepreneurs sions, for example, are partly a fLuniction of the perceived have been essential to a labor-intensive industry located in a risk that some children will die before reaching adulthood, sparsely populated area They contract with farmers, act as
jeopardizinig parents' primary source of old age support employment agencies, and contribute to the flow of The extent to which the allocation of labor responds to mation across labor markets of neighboring regions
infor-a strinfor-ategy of risk minfor-aninfor-agement vinfor-aries with the infor-alterninfor-atives
available In Botswxana and elsewhere it has been found that Implicit contracts
households decide how to allocate their menibers' tiie StUdies of rural labor markets in developing countries findworkinig at home arid in other towns (or abroad) on the that subtle social and economic forces often influenicebasis of reducing risks With economic development, wages In poor villages wages may be set at a level that en-
households tend roallocate more time to market-based sures that workers have enougil to eat to work effectively
activities Labor market-related risks, particul.irly that olf More comnionly, wages will be set for a given task for a
India find that daily wage rates in particular rtiral areas are
Half the world's workers are self-employed or work in fain- differences in individual productivity Wages do vary forily enterprises But as econiomiies grow, more workers work different tasks which are season-specific, but they do not
26
Trang 39directlv reflect productivity Instead more-productive
work-ers rend to get more employment, while less productive Zeba gradltuated three years ago fromn Dhaka b'niversity ini
ones have less employmenit in slack seasons Such contracts Banigladesh Vearly all of her male classmates have found
contain incentives to reward effort anld often have an ele- work, but despite searching hardfor/ i0 job in Dhaka,
Chit-ment of risk sharing Sharecropping contracts are popular tagong anid her home town of Khulna, Zebea has had nlo offers.
for the same reasons, but thev are more likely to be used Emtiployers prtfir to hire m)eni, believing thley will be moltret
CoM,-where monitoring costs are high or where the relationshlip mitted to their careers.
between effort and productivity is tenuous
Households supply labor, employers demand it, and this
Formral conztit4st Formal contracts interaction along with self-cmployMent and houselhold
With rising income per capita and industrializarion, infor- production yields the employment and wage outconmes we
Unem-useful Most manufacLtrinig and many service activities cx- ployment takes many lorms, as illustrated by the
contrast-hibit greater economies of scale, in either production mar- ilg stories of Maciek, N'golo, and Zeba All involve hutnan
keting or finance, than agriculture In addition, workers cost The causes of unemployment arc complex and often
are hired not just to accomplish a stricrty contained task but unrelacd to the level of development IThc ditference
be-to become part of a coordinated effort They must be rween French and Japanese unlieiiploynienit rates ( 1.6 and
trained and given responsibilities, challeniges and incen- 2.5 percentr respectively, in 1993) clearly is not the result of
tives Considerations of eliciting effort, concerns over risk, differing incomes But developmeilt does hive an
impor-and social norms continue to interact with technology to tant impact on how unemployment manifests itself and is
produce the outcomnes observed in the labor market, but reported in official statistics (Box 3.1)
this is increasiniglv resolved throuLghl formal contracts be- In low-income countries, informal and formal
espe-Formal labor contracts typically providc a framework cialiv in riral areas Many of these workers are not fully
em-for joint investmenits by employers and workers Firms ployed Some mav work only part of the time,, putting in
value a trusted and well-trained work force that knows the long hours in peak agricultural seasonis but otherwise
specific characteristics of its production process They mostly idle But the nature of production in agricultural
therefore devote resources to recruiting and training a work economies is such that openl unemployment defined as
force tailored to their needs and offer incenitives to those those without employment who are seeking work is
rela-who remain loyal Workers in turn value the security of a rively rare Individuals from poor households cannor afford
regular wage Some firms otfer "efficiencv wages"-wages to be without a job, and the sharing of low-productivity
set deliberately above the market wage-to raise the cost of work in agricuIILtre is widespread But while OpCIe
ullene-job loss to the worker and in returni obtaini, keCp a nd mo- ployment is low, undtrLItilia;tion of labor is pervasive In
tivate good workers The specifics of formal labor contracts Ghana rural labiorers work on average onlY twenty-cigilt
must conform with a larger system of stattIory workers' hotirs a week, silcreas in Viet Nam nearly 10 percenit of
rights that typically governs labor relations in modern the labor force works less thani fifteen hotirs per week,
economies, covering minimIL11u standards, union Imemilber- even) thotigh many of themic would choose to work more.
ship, and job security W`"e return to these issues in Part In Bangladesh thc BUreau of Statistics cstimated that
unidertiti-lized in 1989
For almost halb hisfiffty-t no yea,s AIaSciek waS empIl.oyed a7t the hunmnan resources people who w1nt to work cannot fi nd
Star Truck Factory in Starachowvice, Polmnd Utnder new man- as mucil work as they would like In pooret, rttral areas this
agement the fcto7y is being restructured, andhe was a/ nong a m ainly takes tile form of season-al uinderem ploymient In
thousand workers who lost their jobs At his age and with his urbani areas one manlifestation is that of the discouraged
limited skills, Maciek u'ill haz'e g7eat difficulty in findinig a worker, who has given up searching tor work (In South
new job Africa total unlemployment of blacks is close to 40 percenit,
N'golo, a landless peasant living near Korhlog in northern for a job.)
CGtedivoire, worksfijieen hours a us'ek on2 average H- wvouild Over the coLirse of developimicilt, and reflcctiig the
like to work more hours to improve his finily; standard oJ'lir- structural transformation of the econonmv, the
concentrat-ing and p,y fir his childrhem' education But except in harvest tion of unLemilployment shifts from underemnployvmeit to
season there is not enoutglh work some form of more open unemirployment This transition is
Trang 40iJVIft% Sad fl ant;:ri D0WUC; pn:: ientta t S pa i:n,X:X ::a &wues:0 dt L:ie'S #a s* p* th0fr' l s~
parllly doeLI to risingL~ inICOmeIs and tiFIrb Ianiaon As COUntrieS stand thils varination it is irnporratnt to t-ecogniize rhe vrOIgiow anid h1ousehold Hoincoms rise, ijidisvidu-aIs can begini to eCOnIOm)iC forCeS that generate unientplox'titiet
AtoId pci pI otis, withIIouLt work, whl sII vaiHi big, for a jo b Also, Open ulinemplovynsent cani he driveni by labor SuIpply ormii c-itiudci coi oii 0mlic org.iiii/c work in watvs thati do labor- demrand: it cani reflect a workerls dlecisioni to reject thcnot lenId thenLISCIVSs aS Cas,il to work shiarinig Or a,djoIstmnrI jobS Oni offer anid wait for a better onec; it cani bc a signi of
Of hOurs as, agiCUIltUral arr angements do However, eveni miistakeni expectations; or it cani resultI fromI policy faitotleSamong countries at the samie level of inicomei there are huige or rigidities that reduice labor denianid relative to suipply.differencecs in open unemjiploymencit Algeria, Br-azil, anid Unemployment is ofteni suibdivided by pe or cauise Frie-Poland have veryv simuil ar inicomeis per catpita, bttt InI the tiOlnal unICtnIplovmentI r'eSultS fromn the niormial operationi of
earIly I9 90Us theCir taics of opci UnMIieiipOyiiieiit ti rSpeCtively' mariikets, is rypicalvx of short duirationi, and is pairt of the2s
I 21 .), 3.9, aijd Ib) OM [)cI Ii~ (f igure 1.3) 10 Uncler- proce.S of Wo)rkers lookinig fur- the righit jobs aind emiployers
28