INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD Course slides Ebook

WYCKOFF ASSOCIATES, LLC PRESENTS INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD WORKSHOP March 19, 2016 SWING TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD March 19, 2016 Today’s Schedule: 8:30 – 10:20 am - Part I 10:20 – 10:30 am - Break 10:30 – 12:30 pm - Part II 12:30 – 1:15 pm - Lunch 1:15 – 2:50 pm - Part III 2:50 – 3:00 pm - Break 3:00 – 4:30 pm - Part IV Video recording: This workshop will be recorded for further distribution to workshop participants These recordings are intended for your own use only Please respect the proprietary, copyrighted nature of the materials and not share or distribute them Workshop slides: The PDF slides file will be available to you Make a lot of notes, but be ready to engage in the discussion Lunch: Lunch break is from 12:30 to 1:15 pm Please return on time! Evaluation form: We will ask you to complete an evaluation form after the workshop We would greatly appreciate your feedback to help improve the workshop for future presentations Most importantly: HAVE A GREAT EXPERIENCE LEARNING ABOUT WYCKOFF INTRADAY TRADING! www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Disclaimer Roman Bogomazov (“Presenter”) is not a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to recommend or suggest any securities to buy or sell You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities Presenter assumes no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results You and you alone are responsible for your own trading and investment decisions and results It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Presenter are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which will be realized by you In addition, the indicators, strategies, articles and all other features of Presenter's products are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice Accordingly, you should not rely solely on the Presenter’s information in making any investment Rather, you should use the Presenter’s information only as a starting point for doing additional independent research in order to allow you to form your own opinion regarding investments You should always check with your licensed financial advisor and tax advisor to determine the suitability of any investment HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING AND DO NOT INCLUDE BROKERAGE AND OTHER FEES, OR SLIPPAGE ALSO, IN SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS NO TRADES HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, AND THEREFORE THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACTS OF A VARIETY OF MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS, IN GENERAL, CAN ALSO BE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN INTRODUCTION www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved MY TRADING TRAINING AND TEACHING EXPERIENCE Roman Bogomazov: -Originally from Vladivostok, Russia Immigrated in 1996 Education: - Student at Golden Gate University (GGU) in 1997-2000 Bruce Fraser and Professor Hank Pruden were my teachers and continue to be my mentors - Certificate in technical market analysis and MS in Finance, both from GGU - Passed Level I and II CMT designation exams - Series designation Trading experience: - I consult for hedge funds and other financial institutions on trading strategies and implementation - I have been trading for the last 20 years I have traded stocks, options, futures, and forex - I trade two strategies: (1) a short-term swing/intraday strategy, based on momentum of a swing; (2) longer-term swing trading of stocks based on the Wyckoff methodology Teaching and coaching: - Teaching FI354 and FI355 Wyckoff classes online at Golden Gate University - Teaching an Advanced Wyckoff Trading Course (AWTC), Wyckoff Practicum Trading Course (WPTC) and conducting weekly Market and Stocks Outlook (MASO) sessions with Wyckoff Associates, LLC Affiliations: - Past President of TSAASF (www.tsaasf.org) and Board Member of IFTA (ifta.org) - Member of San Francisco chapter of Ed Seykota’s trading tribe www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD March 19, 2016 Student Intentions: - Name - Your intention: what you hope to gain from this workshop? Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved WORKSHOP OUTLINE www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD March 19, 2016 Outline of material for today (page 1): www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Introduction The Wyckoff Method Review • Change of Character • Wyckoff Phase Analysis • Wyckoff Accumulation Trading Range Events • Wyckoff Distribution Trading Range Events • Swing Reversal Concept Synchronization of Different Time Frame Structures • Case Study #1: EURUSD • Monthly EURUSD structure • Daily EURUSD structure • 240 minutes EURUSD structure • 30 minutes EURUSD structure • Points of Entry • Different trading sessions Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved INTRADAY TRADING USING THE WYCKOFF METHOD Outline of material for today (page 2): Selection of the Momentum Stocks for Day Trading • Case Study #2: AMZN • Leadership with momentum stocks • Identification of the Daily Swing Bias • Identification of the Daily Chart Trend • Identification of the Daily Swing Structure • Resumption of the Leadership Trend on a lower time frame General Guidelines and Rules for Day Trading Momentum Stocks Intraday Comparative Selection and Points of Entry • Case Study #3: Momentum Stocks (FANG) • Daily Swing Bias • Comparative evaluation of the first 30 minutes of a session • Intraday points of entry Intraday Trades vs Intraday Switch to a Swing Trade • Case Study #4: GOOGL • Long-term price analysis • Daily swing reversal • Predominant intraday trend • Intraday points of entry • Comparison between intraday and swing trades www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.2: ES – Wyckoff Structure defines Intraday Bias Automatic Rally Questions to discuss: - What is the current Daily Swing Bias? - How you interpret points 1-2-3? Label them Secondary Test US session Selling Climax - What is your intraday bias for the next trading session based on your Wyckoff labeling? Phase A www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.2 Task: Identify all possible Points of Entry www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.2 - Solution Swing Reversals near Resistance - POE Daily Swing Bias – DOWN, but Intraday Structure suggests an Upthrust in Phase |B| Therefore, both short and long are possible with full-sized positions Swing Reversal - POE Swing Reversal near Support - POE www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.3: ES – Wyckoff Structure defines Intraday Bias Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Automatic Rally Secondary Test US session Selling Climax Phase A www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Questions to discuss: Secondary Test in Phase |B| - What is the current Daily Swing Bias? - How you interpret points 1-2-3? Label them - What is your intraday bias for the next trading session based on your Wyckoff labeling? Phase B Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.3 Task: Identify all possible Points of Entry www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.3 - Solution Daily Swing Bias – DOWN, but Intraday Structure suggests possible Phase |C| Therefore, both short and long are possible with full-sized positions Swing Reversal - POE Swing Reversal - POE Swing Reversals near Support - POE www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Exercise #1.4: ES – Wyckoff Structure defines Intraday Bias Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Automatic Rally Questions to discuss: Secondary Test US session Selling Climax Phase A www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Secondary Test in Phase |B| Phase B - What is the current Daily Swing Bias? - How you interpret points 1-2? Label them - What is your intraday bias for the next trading session based on your Wyckoff labeling? Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.4 Task: Identify all possible Points of Entry www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Exercise #1.4 - Solution Daily Swing Bias – UP after previous day’s CHoCH bar Swing Reversal near Support - POE Swing Reversal - POE www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Exercise #1.5: ES – Wyckoff Structure defines Intraday Bias Automatic Rally Sign of Strength Rally in Phase |D| Secondary Test US session Selling Climax Phase A Secondary Test in Phase |B| Phase B Phase C Phase D Shakeout in Phase|C| with a Test www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Intraday Trades vs Intraday Switch to a Swing Trade CASE STUDY #3: INSTRUMENT: - E-Mini Continuous Contract (ES) TIME FRAMES: - Daily (Swing Price Structure) - 30 Minutes (Intraday Price Structure) - Minutes (Point of Entry Zone) www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Secondary Test Buying Climax USE WYCKOFF STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS TO CREATE A TRADING TACTIC: |C| Last Point of Supply Automatic Reaction Events at bars #1 and 2: - Possible Change of Character (#1) - Confirmation of Up Swing Reversal (#2) Minor Sign of Weakness Resistance at 1,930 Projected trade with intraday POE and a switch to a swing trade #2 Selling Climax www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Directional Swing Bias: UP Target: Resistance at 1,930 level Possible Structural Scenarios at bar #1: ST in Phase |A| ST in Phase |B| Phase |C| All three scenarios suggest an upswing as a retest of the 1,930 price area #1 ST in Phase |A|, or ST in Phase |B|, or Phase |C| Trading Tactics: - Find an intraday point of entry - IDEA #5: Switch intraday position to swing position on the confirmation of the change of character - Exit based on the swing reversal or another change of character near the 1,930 target area Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Upthrust Action in Phase |B| Daily Bar #1 Daily Bar #2 - Potential Change of Character Bar near Support Area - - Change of Character of Bar #1 and a Swing Reversal Confirmation Daily Directional Bias is UP Automatic Rally Sign of Strength Rally in Phase |D| Secondary Test Selling Climax Phase A Intraday Point of Entry Zone Secondary Test in Phase |B| Phase B Phase C Phase D Shakeout in Phase|C| with a Test www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved INTRADAY POINT OF ENTRY AND A SWITCH TO SWING TRADE WITH A STRUCTURAL TARGET EXIT Daily Bar #2 - - Change of Character of Bar #1 and Swing Reversal Confirmation Daily Directional Bias is UP Another possible POE Another possible POE DAILY Resistance at 1,930 Intraday Point of Entry Bar – 1,829.75 Stop-loss – 1,824 #2 #1 www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Intraday POE and a switch to a swing trade with a structural exit Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved Q&A session www.WyckoffAnalytics.com Copyright © 2016 Wyckoff Associates, LLC All Rights Reserved