275 simultaneously maximise economic growth (although growth in this scenario is marginally lower than SC5 scenario) and employment opportunities, and optimizing energy–food–water security The signifi[.]
275 simultaneously maximise economic growth (although growth in this scenario is marginally lower than SC5 scenario) and employment opportunities, and optimizing energy–food–water security The significant of this scenario becomes apparent if one recognizies that existing policy dynamics (i.e the continuation of current trends in the BAU scenario) will result in the worst outcomes in all aspects of social-economic progress, i.e., negative impacts on total GDP, jobs, environment, and food, water, and energy security The above discussion also suggests that there is no ideal scenario offering a solution to all problems Rather, it is a matter of context and priorities The Vietnamese policy makers will need to consider the trade-offs across various scenarios, to balance the gains and losses from a long-term perspective as they select a particular policy pathway for the future The choice for the policy makers is unlikely to be easy to make, as they will need to consider a myriad of issues, especially how to “balance” economic, social, environmental, geo-strategic and political interests – in the short, medium and long – term The six scenarios developed in this research should provide useful foundation for the country’s policy makers to initiate strategic thinking regarding the country’s future development This research suggests that it is imperative that the Vietnamese policy makers consider the price of environmental degradation while implementing a particular policy in developing socio-economic activities The discussion in this research also suggests that Vietnam would need new socioeconomic development strategies, underpinned by an energy-food-water nexus approach with a long-term focus – to avoid adverse consequences that are likely to result from a continuation of the current socio-economic policy trends as represented in SC1-BAU scenario These new strategies, at the macro level, should place requisite emphasis on stopping the sacrifice of the environment and over-exploitation of scared resources (water, minerals, and land) for short-term gain of economic growth To achieve the policy goals as set out in the alternative scenarios, it is critical for the country to deeply understand the positive and negative impacts of each scenario and the synergies and trade-offs across specific scenarios These impacts are likely to differ depending on the level of analysis; for example, at the macro level, relevant impacts are