252 Table 7 6 Energy Food Water Security 2014 – 2030 Scenario Energy security Food security Water security Energy accessi bi lity (%) Energy import dependen cy (%) Energy afforda bi lity (%) Energy in[.]
252 Table 7-6: Energy-Food-Water Security: 2014 – 2030 Energy security Scenario Base year (2014) SC1 BAU SC2 ENERGY SC3 FOOD SC4 WATER Energy Energy Energy accessi import- afforda bi-lity dependen- bi-lity (%) cy (%) (%) Energy intensity (toe/Mn$) Food security Energy diversity (Herfindahl Energy efficiency (%) index) Food accessi bi-lity (%) Food import depende n-cy (%) Water security Food afforda bi-lity (%) Water stress (%) Water Water Water afforda intensity efficie bi-lity (m3/US n-cy (%) $) (%) 4.6 14.9 4.2 273.6 0.37 74.0 8.7 18.7 41.2 59.0 0.25 24.1 23.4 4.3 16.5 3.9 480.3 0.43 70.7 8.3 19.2 39.5 62.2 0.23 27.0 19.5 6.2 10.9 4.9 234.8 0.29 85.8 8.2 19.0 36.8 66.3 0.18 35.0 21.3 3.8 19.4 3.6 487.1 0.43 70.2 10.2 15.7 44.8 65.8 0.20 28.4 19.1 4.1 17.6 3.6 461.7 0.42 71.9 8.4 18.9 41.1 52.1 0.31 21.5 27.4 5.6 13.4 4.9 253.4 0.29 81.6 9.7 17.6 42.5 55.9 0.30 23.5 24.8 5.8 12.8 4.8 245.2 0.32 83.0 9.8 18.0 41.9 56.4 0.28 23.9 24.6 SC5 EFW Nexus SC6 Low Carbon Source: Estimates are based on modelling developed in this research Food security Similar to SC5, food security in the SC6 scenario will improve significantly compared to the current SC1, SC2, and SC4 scenarios The overall food security index of this scenario is about 8.6 points higher than that of SC1 A significant contribution to this improvement in food security is due to improvements in the affordability of and improved access to food As a result of the interdisciplinary approach in this scenario, food policy has taken advantage of all scenarios to maximize total food production by increasing food production (SC3 and SC4), as well as increasing the energy supply for food production (SC2) Consequently, the food affordability index was significantly improved—resulting in a 5.4 point (6%) increase on that of SC1 Moreover, greater investment in transport systems (SC3) also improve SC6’s food accessibility index, which is 14.7 points (18.1%) higher than SC1 Meanwhile, compared to the base year, the overall food security index increase in SC6 is significantly higher than SC1 and SC2, but not SC3 and SC5, as discussed in the comparison of SC1 Food accessibility is a major factor influencing the result of food security in this scenario; the highest value of this indicator is 95.7, which is 10.4 points higher than that of the base year and 15 points higher than SC2 and SC4 In this scenario,