THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO TRUONG DAI HOC KINH TE QUOC DAN PHAM LUU LY DOI MOI CONG TAC DO BAO NHU CAU DICH VU VlfiN THONG O BIT DIEN HA NOI LUAN VAN THAC SY QUAN TRI KINH DOANH Chuyen nganh : QTKD CN - XDCB Giao vien hu'dng din: GS.TS Dam Van Nhue Ha noi, thang 06 nam 2003 £01 CAM OH Trong qua trinh viet luan van, tdi da nhan duoc su giup dd cua nhieu cd quan, cac thay co giao, ban be va dong nghiep Tdi xin chan cam On: - GS TS Dam Van Nhue, ngifdi da true hep hitting dan tdi rat tan tinh, ti mi va khoa hoc ve ca noi dung va hinh th tic cua luan van, phuOng phap nghien ctiu de tai - Phong Quan ly vidn thong Buu Dien Ha Noi, Cong ty Dien toan va truyen so'lieu VDC da hd trO tdi rat nhieu vide thu thap cac thong tin va so'lieu ra'thtiu ich cho de tai - Cac thdycd giao khoa Quan tri kinh doanh Cdng nghiep Xay dung co ban, trudng Dai hoc Kinh te Quo'c dan da gop y cho ban luan van - Cac dong nghiep va ban be da giup tdi thu thap tai lieu va gop y cho de tai Luan van de cap tdi mot van de cd ban nhung rat kho, tdi da co' gang rat nhieu de dat duoc cac muc tieu dat Tuy nhien, chua cd nhieu kinh nghiem, dong thdi th di gian han che, cd nhieu van de lien quan ma luan van khong the bao quat het, ban luan van chac chan se nhieu sai sot Tac gia ratmong nhan duoc su gop y, bo sung cua cac thdy giao, cac dong nhgiep va nhung ngudi quan tarn de tac gia nghien ctiu hoan thien them ve de tai MUC LUC TONG QUAN VE DU BAO NHU CAU CAC DICH VU VI I=N THONG I CHUONG 1: 1.1 Mang lifdi va dich vu vidn thong Vien thong va mang lirdi vien thong Dich vu vidn thong ; Hoat dong kinh doanh dich vu vien thong 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.2 Nhu cau dich vu vien thong 1.2.1 1.2.2 Khai niem nhu cau dich vu vien thong va cac dac diem Cac nhan to anh hudng tdi nhu cau dich vu vidn thong 1.3 Vai tro cua du" bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong kinh doanh dich vu vien thong 10 Vai tro cua du" bao quy hoach va lap ke hoach mang vien thong 10 1.3.1 1.3.2 Vai tro cua dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong hoat dong nghien clTu thi trifdng cua doanh nghiep 14 1.3.3 Ket luan ve vai tro cua dif bao nhu cau kinh doanh dich vu vien thong 16 1.4 Cong tac du" bao nhu cau 17 Khai niem dif bao nhu cau 17 Cac dif bao dinh lifdng 18 Phan loai dif bao 19 Quy trinh du" bao nhu cau 22 1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 1.4.4 1.4.5 Cac phifdng phap dif bao 23 Chat lifdng dif bao nhu cau 1.4.6 1.5 28 Cac yeu cau dat doi vdi cong tac dif bao nhu cau 30 CHUONG 2: THUC TRANG CONG TAC DU BAO NHU CAU BDHN 32 2.1 Lich sir phat trien cua BDHN 32 2.1.1 ' Giai doan 1987-1990 32 2.1.2 Giai doan tif nam 1990 den 32 2.2 Vi tri, chifc nang, nhiem vu, mo hinh to chifc cua BDHN hien 33 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.3 Vi tri, chifc n§ng 33 Nhiem vu cd ban cua BDHN 34 Quyen han cua BDHN: 34 Mo hinh to chub 36 Cong tac dif bao nhu cau dich vuvien thong dBDHN: .37 2.3.1 Cac cSn cif 37 2.3.2 Cong tac dif bao nhu cau viec lap ke hoach mang 44 2.3.3 Dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong de de xuat mang phat trien thue bao (hang quy, 1/2 nam) 46 2.3.4 Cong tac dif bao nhu cau viec lap ke hoach phat trien dich vu mdi: .47 2.3.5 Khai quat chung ve thifc trang cong tac dif bao nhu cau dich vu vidn thong d Bifu dien Ha Noi 47 2.4 Danh gia hien trang cong tac dif baonhu cau cuaBDHN hien ; 50 2.4.1 Danh gia cac ket qua dat dirge va cac ton tai, kho khan cong tac dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong cua Bifu Dien Ha Noi 50 2.4.2 Nguyen nhan cua cac ton tai cong tac dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong d Bifu dien Ha Noi 52 2.4.3 Hau qua cua cac ton tai cong tac dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong d Bifu dien Ha Noi 53 CHLT0NG 3: CAC GIAI PHAP DOI MCH CONG TAC DLT BAO NHU CAU DICH VU VI^N THONG BUU DIEN HA NOI 54 3.1 Cac xu the phat trien cua moi trirdng kinh doanh dich vu vien thong va cac to chctc kinh doanh dich vu vidn thong - Yeu cau dat doi vdi cong tac du1 bao 54 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 Cac xu hirdng chung tren the gidi 54 Cac dap ung can phai co cua cac nha khai thac vienthong hien tai 62 Tinh hinh d Viet Nam va Ha Noi 65 Cac yeu cau dat doi vdi cong tac dir bao nhu cau DVVT 67 3.2 Cac giai phap doi mdi cong tac dir bao nhu cau dich vu vidn thong tai But Bien Ha Noi 68 3.2.1 Xay dung he thong thong tin quan ly phuc vu du” bao nhu cau thi trirdng 68 3.2.2 Hoan thien va bo sung he thong cac phifdng phap va cong cu dir bao nhu cau dich vu vidn thong 74 3.2.3 Doi mdi cd cau to chut there hien du1 bao nhu cau dich vu vidn thong 76 3.2.4 Ket luan ve nhirng diem mdi cac giai phap da de xuat 77 3.3 Van dung cac phirong phap va cong cu dir bao da dirge de xuat de dir bao nhu cau truy cap Internet giai doan 2004 - 2010 tren dia ban Ha Noi 80 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 Tinh hinh phat trien Internet hien tai 80 Doi tirgng dir bao 85 Thirc hien dir bao 86 ii DANH MCA CAC CHUT VIET TAT STT Tu viet tat 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 ADSL APEC BCVT BDHN DGPT DSL DVVT GIS GPC HDQT ICT ISDN ITU-T PCL PSTN SDSL SPT TCT BCVTVN TMDT VDC VNPT VoIP WTO Viet day du Duong day thue bao so khong doi xung Dien dan kinh te Chau A Thai Binh Duong Buu chinh vien thong BuU dien Ha Noi Tong cuc Buu dien Duong day thue bao so Dich vu vi£n thong He thong thong tin dia ly Cong ty dich vu vien thong Hoi dong quan tri Cong nghe thong tin va vien thong Mang so da dich vu To chidc lien minh quoc te ve vien thong Cong nghe truy cap Internet qua duong dien luc Mang dien thoai cong cong DuOng day thue bao so doi xung Cong ty vien thong Sai Gon Postel Tong Cong ty Buu chinh Vien thong Viet Nam Thuong mai dien tfr Cong ty dien toan va truyen so lieu Tong Cong ty Buu chinh Vien thong Viet Nam Dich vu dien thoai qua mang IP To chUc thuong mai the gid DANH MUC CAC HINH VE Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh Hinh 1-1: Sd qua trinh thong tin vien thong 1-2: Khai niem ve quy hoach mang : 11 1-3: Liru quy trinh quy hoach mang 12 1-4: Cac huting cd ban nghien cun thi trirdng dich vu vidn thong 16 -5: Cac cong viec cua dir bao nhu cau 17 1-6: Dieu chinh cac gia tri dir bao 21 1-7: Cac mo hinh dir bao theo phiTdng phap ngoai suy 24 1-8: PhiTdng phap dir bao Bottom-up 26 2-1: Mo hinh to chub cua BDHN 36 2-2: Thu tuc xay dirng cau true mang cua BDHN 37 2-3: Cac birdc xay dirng ho sd cau true mang lirdi cua BDHN 38 2-4: Can doi tong mud dau tir d BDHN 40 2-5: Cong tac dir bao nhu cau viec lap ke hoach mang cua BDHN 45 3-1: Sir bien doi cac loai liru ludng tren mang 58 3-2: thong ke cua nhom Yanke ve litu lirqng vien thong tren the gidi 58 3-3: Dir bao cua NTT ve sir phat trien liru liTdng thong tin vien thong d Nhat Ban 59 3-4; Cac phan doan chien ItTdc do'i vdi cac nha khai thac DWT 62 3-5: He thong cd sd dir lieu phuc vu dir bao nhu cau DWT 70 3-6: Cac chut nang cd cau to chuC thitc hien dirbao 76 DANH MUC CAC BANG BIEU Bang 1-1: Mot sd dich vu vien thong cd ban Bang 3-1: Cac phan doan chien liroc doi vdi cac nha khai thac DWT 62 Bang 3-2: Mure sir dung Internet d mot so nude (nguon VNPT) 81 Bang 3-3: Thi phan cac doanh nghiep cung cap dich vu Internet d Viet Nam 81 Bang 3-4: Du" bao sd ngtrdi sir dung Internet d Ha Noi 89 Bang 3-5: Dir bao sd thue bao Internet theo chuan quy doi cua VNNIC 91 Bang 3-6: Du" bao sd thue bao truy nhap Internet gian tiep .92 Bang 3-7: Sd thue bao cd mud sir dung Internet cao 94 Bang 3-8: Dir bao sd thue bao truy nhap Internet trud tiep (doi tiTdng 1) 94 Bang 3-9: Sd trirdng hoc va hoc sinh, sinh vien d Ha Noi 95 Bang 3-10: DiT baonhu cau truy cap Internet trud tiep cua cac trirdng hoc d Ha Noi (doi tirgng 2) 96 iv Luan van thac si QTKD Doi moi cong tac dif bao nhu cau DVVT6 BDHN PHAN MCI DAU Tinh cap thiet cua de tai nghien cuu Hieu qua hoat dong san xuat kinh doanh d cac doanh nghiep phu thuoc rat nhieu vao cong tac dir bao nhu cau khach hang Dieu xuat phat trudc het tir tarn quan song cua viec kinh doanh theo chien lu’cfc va theo ke hoach co dinh hirdng theo nhu cau khach hang doi vdi cac doanh nghiep nen kinh te thi trudng Du1 bao nhu cau khach hang dira nhcrng cd sd thifc te va khoa hoc cho viec xay ddng cac chien lifcc va ke hoach san xuat kinh doanh cua tat ca cac doanh nghiep hoat dong moi trifdng canh tranh va nhieu bien doi Trai qua thdi ki doi mdi va phat trien vu bao dieu kien doc quyen, (tir nam 1990 den nay), nganh vien thong Viet Nam da chuyen nhanh chong tir sir ngheo nan, lac hau mot nganh phat trien co the noi tiep can dirge vdi sir phat trien vien thong cua the gidi Tuy nhien la thdi ky ma cung luon nho hon cau, cac dieu kien ve phat trien mang de dang (thue nha xudng, dao dirdng, cong be), khach hang chap nhan dich vu dude diTa Biru Dien Ha Noi da bi cuon theo sir phat trien, chiTa nhan thifc ro tarn quan cua cong tac dir bao nhu cau khach hang de co the quan tarn day du den cong tac Den nay, mat trai cua viec phat trien d at thieu quy hoach mang mot each can dang de lai nhcrng hau qua ve hieu qua san xuat kinh doanh va hieu qua kinh te xa hoi Mat khac, birdc sang giai doan mdi, thi triTdng vien thong dang dan dude md cud, co nhieu doi thu canh tranh, khach hang co kha nang lira chon nha cung cap dich vu, nhu cau va yeu cau ve chat ludng dich vu cua ho cang cao, nhu cau md rong chung loai dich vu vien thong cua nen kinh te cang Idn Chinh vi vay, viec nang cao chat lirdng cac hoat dong hirdng tdi khach hang cua BDHN trd nen cang cap thiet, chu yeu phai la cong tac tim hieu, dir bao nhu cau khach hang La mot can bo dang cong tac d BDHN, nhan thud dude van de tren, tdi lira chon de tai: "Doi mdi cong tac dir bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong cua BDHN" de viet luan van Muc dich nghien cuu Tren cd sd nghien cud ve dir bao, phan ti'ch nhu cau khach hang quan tri chien lirgc, nghien cud ve dac diem cua cac dich vu Vien thong, ly thuyet dir bao nhu cau ITnh virc vien thong va tinh hinh thifc te tai BDHN, de tai de xuat cac bien phap nham doi mdi cong tac dir bao, nang cao chat lifcng cac def bao nhu cau dich vu Vien thong tai Bud Dien Ha Noi Doi tu’O’ng va pham vi nghien cuu De tai nghien cud ve cong tac dir bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong, gidi han cac dich vu ma Bud Dien Ha Noi cung cap hoac tham gia vao viec cung cap cho khach hang De tai se chi nghien cud doi vdi dich vu dien thoai cd dich va truy -a- Luan van thac si QTKD Doi mo'i cong tac du bao nhu cau DVVT0 BDHN nhap Internet la chinh Doi vdi cac dich vu vien thong khac, luan van se chi de cap mUc tham khao ve phuong phap luan Phuong phap nghien cuu Luan van su" dung phuong phap luan vat bien chung, vat lich su*, phan tich tong hop lam phuong phap nghien cuu chinh Ben canh sU dung mot so phuong phap thong ke, mo hinh toan va phuong phap ngoai suy Du'kien nhung dong gop cua de tai Thong qua-ban luan van, tac gia mong muon: - He thong hoa lai ve mat ly thuyet cong tac du1 bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong viec hoach dinh chien luoc va ke hoach hoa o mot doanh nghiep kinh doanh vien thong noi chung - Dua cac danh gia ve cong tac du bao nhu cau cua Buu dien Ha noi hien nay: cac yeu cau doi vdi cong tac hoan canh kinh doanh hien tai va tuong lai, phan tich mUc dap Ung cua hoat dong thuc te doi vdi cac yeu cau tren Cu the hon, tac gia se de cap den nhung ton tai, yeu kem cong tac du bao nhu cau da anh huong nhu the nao den hieu qua hoat dong kinh doanh cua Buu dien Ha noi ve mat kinh te, quan ly va tao loi the canh tranh - Dua cac bien phap de cai tien cong tac du bao nhu cau cua Buu dien Ha noi ve cach thUc to chUc thuc hien va cac phuong phap du bao thi'ch hop - Du bao nhu cau truy nhap Internet giai doan 2004 - 2010 de minh hoa cho viec ap dung cac bien phap dua Bo cuc cua luan van Ngoai phan gidi thieu, phu luc va danh muc tai lieu tham khao, ban luan van se trinh bay ba chuong nhu sau: Chuong 1: Tong quan ve du bao nhu cau cac dich vu vien thong Chuong 2: Thuc trang ve cong tac du bao nhu cau cua Buu dien Ha noi ' Chuong 3: Cac bien phap doi mdi cong tac du bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong cua Buu dien Ha Noi -b- Luan van thac si QTKD Doi moi cong tac du bao nhu cau DVVTo' BDHN CHUONG 1: TONG QUAN VE DU BAO NHU CAU CAC DICH VU VI&N THONG 1.1 Mang luoi va dich vu vidn thong 1.1.1 Vien thong va mang lirdi vien thong Khoa hoc cho phep sir trao doi thong tin giufa cac doi tiTOng pham vi toan cau, tham chi' xa hon nura la trao doi thong tin giura cac ve tinh va trai dat Vien thong la khai niem chi sir truyen tai thong tin giCra doi tirgng la nguon thong tin vdi doi tirgng nhan thong tin thong qua mot he thong cac thiet bi co chut nang chuyen doi, ma hoa, liru trCf, xir ly tin hieu va cac moi trirdng truyen tin nhat dinh Sci don gian cua qua trinh thong tin vien thong nhu” sau: Hinh 1-1: So qua trinh thong tin vien thong Trong do, tin tire d dau phat dirdi mot hinh thde nao Neu nhu1 tir buoi so khai cua nganh vien thong, cac thiet bi thu phat chi thu phat tin hieu telex, moc - xo, mang noi dung la cac dong chir don gian, thi nay, cac nguon tin va nhan tin co rat nhieu loai khac td may dien thoai, may fax, may tinh, may thu phat hinh, cac kho lull trCr phim anh, ca nhac, cac kho so lieu quoc gia va quoc te , noi dung thong tin dirge thu phat cung phong phu hon nhieu: hinh anh, am thanh, van ban, so lieu De phuc vu thong tin cua nhieu ngiroi, nhifng dia diem va qua nhirng khoang each khac nhau, cac thiet bi vien thong dirge ket noi vdi tao mot mang lirdi rat phuc tap goi la mang vien thong 1.1.2 Dich vu vien thdng 1.1.2.1 Khai niem va dac diem Dich vu vidn thdng la dich vu truyen tai tin tdc thdng qua mang vien thong He thdng cung dng dich vu vien thdng bao gom cac yeu td: khach hang, nha cung dng, mdi trirdng vat chat va dich vu: - Nha cung dng la cac doanh nghiep cung cap dich vu vien thdng - Khach hang la ca nhan hay td chdc cd nhu cau va tieu dung dich vu vien thdng Khach hang cd the la ngiroi sir dung cuoi cung nhirng cung cd the lar chinh cac -1- Luan van thac si QTKD Doi mdi cong tac du bao nhu cau DVVTo' BDHN Theo doi sd phat trien so thue bao Internet truy nhap gian tiep td nam 1997 den nay, ta nhan thay toc phat trien thue bao dai han co xu hddng on dinh Qua theo doi ngan han, theo tdng khoang thdi gian gid gia cddc khong doi cua VDC, ta nhan thay rang toc phat trien thue bao co xu hddng giam vao cuoi dot va tang len vao dau dot sau, gia cddc da giam Vay, co the nhan dinh nhd sau: - Trong dai han, td den 2010, toc phat trien thue bao Internet gian tiep dddc on dinh, mo hinh hoi quy dddc sd dung la mo hinh tuyen tinh cua so thue bao theo thdi gian Cd sd de dd bao dd on dinh tren la chinh sach gia cddc cua nha nddc va cua bo BCVT va mot lo trinh giam gia cddc Internet de khuyen khich Internet phat trien d Viet Nam Nhd vay, mo hinh dd bao nhd sau: TBGTt= c Trong do: +dT TBGTt la so thue bao Internet gian tiep tai thdi diem T T: Thdi gian tinh td 12/1997, ddn vi la thang c,d la cac tham so cua mo hinh Td so lieu thong ke dddc ta co ket qua nhd sau: Ham hoi quy: TBGTt = -2084.67 + 1837.29T Td ta co ket qua dd bao sau: T 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Thdi diem cuoi nam 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 So thue bao Internet truy nhap gian tiep 42010 49359 56709 64058 71407 78756 86105 93454 Bang 3-6: Dd bao so thue bao truy nhap Internet gian tiep b) Dd bao so thue bao Internet truy nhap trdc tiep Do dac diem cua cac hinh thdc truy nhap trdc tiep va ldi the hdn han cua hinh thdc truy nhap dung cong nghe DSL so vdi dddng thue kenh rieng 64Kbit/s, tac gia dd bao: -92- Luan van thac si QTKD Ddi moi cdng tac du bao nhu cau DVVT6 BDHN - Hinh thdc truy nhap bang dddng thue kenh rieng se on dinh, sd thue bao khong tang them hoac giam chuyen sang hinh thuc DSL - Sd Iddng truy nhap true tiep thdi gian tdi se tang manh hdn su tham gia cua cac khach hang la cac trddng hoc, cac cd quan bo nganh, cac dai ly Internet Nhdng ngddi sd dung hinh thdc truy nhap true tiep tddng lai bao gom: - Ddi tddng 1: Nhdng ddi tddng hien tai thuoc loai cd nhu cau cao, dd cd ca thue bao true tiep va thue bao gian tiep, bieu hien bdi chi phi cho truy nhap Internet hang thang cua mdi account - Ddi tddng 2: Nhdng doi tddng mdi tham gia: chu yeu la cac trddng hoc can md them sd luong dudng truy nhap de phuc vu cdng tac giang day va nghien cdu cho hoc sinh, sinh vien Do hai doi tddng tren cd dac diem khac nhau, cac thdng ke ve sd phat trien cua moi loai thu thap dddc cung khac nen tac gia Ida chon hai phuong phap dd bao khac de dd bao rieng ve sd thue bao thuoc hai doi tddng tren • Dd bao cho so thue bao thuoc ddi tddng 1: Dd la nhdng ddi tddng ban than cd nhu cau cao ve tim kiem va trao doi thdng tin tren Internet Theo thdng ke hien tai thi phan Idn la cac vien nghien cdu Idn, cac td chdc hoac doanh nghiep ndde ngoai, cac trddng dai hoc (phuc vu cho can bo cua trudng), va cac ca nhan cd nhu cau cao Gia cudc thue bao ADSL thdi gian thd nghiem hien tai tinh theo hai loai: - Cudc cd dinh trieu VND/ thang - Cudc tinh theo sd phut truy nhap, vdi gia 80 dong/phut Tong edde nhdng thue bao phai nop mdi thang tinh trung binh la 800 000 VND Gia edde truy nhap Internet cd xu hddng giam, edde phi hang thang cua cac thue bao ASDL se giam hdn nda Xet ve chi phi, cd the du bao nhdng thue bao Internet thudng xuyen chi tra trieu dong/thang trd len thdi diem hien cho truy nhap Internet se chuyen sang sd dung hinh thdc truy nhap ADSL chi phi se giam Nhdng thue bao chinh la nhdng thue bao thuoc doi tddng Thdng ke nhdng thue bao cd edde phi hang thang Idn hdn 000 000 ddng thdi gian td nam 2001 trd lai day nhd sau: -93- Luan van thac si QTKD Thang 12/1999 06/2000 12/2000 06/2001 12/2001 06/2002 12/2002 Ddi moi cdng tac du bao nhu cau DWTO BDHN Sd thue bao 508 594 716 909 1021 1104 1180 Bang 3-7: So thue bao co mdc sd dung Internet cao So Idgng nhirng thue bao hien co xu hddng tuyen tinh nen tac gia sir dung mo hinh hoi quy tuyen tinh de dd bao sd thue bao Mo hinh du1 bao nhu1 sau: TBTT1t= c1 +d1T Trong dd: TBTT1T: la sd thue bao Internet trite tiep co nhu cau cao thuoc doi tirgng T : Thdi gian tinh tit 12/1999, don vi la thang c1,d1 : la cac tham sd cua md hinh Tit sd lieu thong ke dirge ta cd ket qua nhir sau: Ham hoi quy: TBGTt = 503.75 + 119.3214T Tir dd ta cd ket qua dd bao sau: Thdi diem cuoi nam T 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sd thue bao co nhu cau truy nhap Internet trdc tiep ddi tirgng 1697 1936 2174 2413 2652 2890 3129 Bang 3-8: Du" bao so thue bao truy nhap Internet trifc tiep (doi tirgng 1) • Du1 bad cho so thue bao thuoc doi tirong 2: Cac thue bao thuoc dien chu yeu nam chuting trinh phat trien cap Internet theo chinh sach khuyen khich cua chinh phu Trong dd, phirong thirc truy nhap trdc tiep cd loi the la cho phep nhieu ngirdi sir dung dung chung mot dirdng truy nhap, mac du ban than mdi ngirdi co nhu cau truy nhap khong cao -94- Luan van thac si QTKD Doi moi cong tac du bao nhu cau DVVTd BDHN Nhdng ngddi sd dung thuoc doi tddng se la chu yeu la hoc sinh, sinh vien , cong chdc nha nudc Do vay, d day tac gia dd bao so thue bao truy cap Internet trdc tiep phat sinh tai cac trudng hoc nham cap Internet tdi cong tac giang day va hoc tap cua hoc sinh, sinh vien - So trddng hoc : Loai trddng Tieu hoc THCS PTTH DH-CD So trddng 270 223 103 43 So hoc sinh, sinh vien 228263 169105 104687 khoang 170 000 Bang 3-9: So trddng hoc va hoc sinh, sinh vien d Ha Noi Viec dd bao so thue bao truy nhap Internet trdc tiep tai cac trddng hoc thdi diem hien tai rat kho, dieu phu thuoc vao toc cap Internet cac trddng hoc, tdc la phu thuoc vao mdc chi cua cac trddng cho phong may, trang thiet bi va truy cap Internet Trong thdi diem hien tai, xuat phat diem tai cac trddng thong hau nhd chda co gi Theo thong ke cua Bo giao duc & Dao tao, ca nddc mdi hien co 40 trddng dai hoc xay ddng mang noi bo, 19 trddng xay ddng Website va 10 trddng co dddng thue rieng de truy nhap Internet Ngoai cac kho khan da neu ve cd sd tan, trinh tin hoc va ngoai ngd, ve thoi quan sd dung internet thi viec dda Internet vao cac trddng hoc bi can trd bdi viec thieu giao vien hddng dan Tham khao d trddng Bach Khoa Ha Noi, trddng co mot dddng thue kenh rieng toc 128KbiVs de truy nhap Internet va cac may noi mang noi bo trddng co the truy nhap Internet qua dddng nay, Trddng cung co mot phong may gom 40 may de cho sinh vien nam cuoi dddc truy nhap mien phi nhdng so lddng may qua it oi, sinh vien van phai len thd vien va lam thu tuc rat rac roi Nhu cau truy cap Internet phuc vu hoc tap se xuat phat trddc tien d cac trddng dai hoc cao dang, sau la cac trddng thong trung hoc Chinh vi vay, tac gia thdc hien dd bao xuat phat td cac gia thiet sau: - Do nhdng kho khan da neu d tren, nhat la kho khan ve ngan sach cho trang thiet bi cd sd tang thong tin, mac du muc tieu de le ky bien ban ghi nhd ve viec hdp ttac phat trien mang giao duc (EDUNET) 4/4/2003, da khdng dinh viec phat trien mang may tinh phuc vu giao duc dao tao, ket noi Internet tdi tat ca cac cd sd giao duc va dao tao la nhiem vu cap bach nhdng cung het sdc nang -95- Luan van thac si QTKD Ddi mdi cdng tac du bao nhu cau DVVTd BDHN ne doi vdi nganh giao due dieu kien kinh phi kho khan Do vay doi vdi mot ndi cd dieu kien thuan Idi hdn nhu1 Ha Noi, tac gia cung chi du" bao lac quan la den nam 2010: 100% sinh vien cua cac trifdng dai hoc va cao dang va hoc sinh thdng trung hoc, 50% hoc sinh trung hoc cd sd (chu yeu d noi thanh) difdc sif dung Internet tai trifdng hoc - Bat dau chifdng trinh cap tif nam 2003 thi den cuoi nam 2005 cac trifdng hoc se dap ifng difdc 1/2 nhu cau tren - Trung binh mot difdng Internet trifc tiep phuc vu du cho khoang 1000 sinh vien (so lieu tham khao tai trifdng dai hoc Bach khoa Ha Noi) - Sd hoc sinh sinh vien thay doi khong dang ke Nam 2005 2010 Sd hoc sinh sinh vien can phuc vu DH-CD+PTTH THCS 137000 85000 275000 170000 Sd difdng truy nhap Internet trifc tiep DH-CD+PTTH THCS Tong 85 137 222 275 170 445 Bang 3-10: Dif baonhu cau truy cap Internet trifc tiep cua cac trifdng hoc d Ha Noi (ddi tifdng 2) -96- Luan van thac si QTKD Ddi mdi cdng tac du bao nhu cau DWT6 BDHN KET LUAN Doi chieu vdi muc dich nghien ciru, luan van da hoan cac nhiem vu sau: Thu1 nhat, luan van da he thong cac ty luan ccf ban lien quan den de tai nghien ciru, la cac ty luan ve: - Dich vu vidn thong va nhu cau dich vu vidn thong - Lap ke hoach mang d mot doanh nghiep kinh doanh vidn thong - Cdng tac dif bao nhu cau dich vu vien thong Thu1 hai, luan van da phan tich tinh hinh thifc trang cdng tac nhu cau DWT d BDHN, tif dd rut cac nhan xet xac dang ve: - Nhirng ton tai cdng tac dif bao nhu cau cua BDHN, dd la: + Chua bao ham day du cac dich vu va cac chdc nang hoat dong kinh doanh ma no can phai phuc vu + Cong tac du bao nhu cau chua duoc thuc hien mot each chu dong, thudng xuyen va theo day du cac budc cua chu trinh Dir bao—>Lap ke hoach-—>Danh gia lap di lap lai lien tuc + Cdng tac dubao chua co tinh he thong va khoa hoc - Nguyen nhan cua nhifng ton tai: + Do nhirng han che chung viec lap ke hoach mang ciia TCT: chu chu yeu vao dich vu dien thoai va lam theo co che hudng dim doc, lam mat tinh chu dong cua BDHN cdng tac du bao nhu cau + Thieu he thong thong tin quan ly manh phuc vu du bao nhu cau va marketing + Luc luong tham gia thuc hien dd bao nhu cau yeu ca ve co cau to chdc va nang luc dubao - Hau qua cua nhifng ton tai tren doi vdi hoat dong kinh doanh cua BDHN.: + Viec lap ke hoach sai sot vdi nhu cau thuc te ve sd luong thue bao ddn den hien tuong thda, thieu thiet bi cue bo d mot sd noi Lam tang chi phi, giam doanh thu cua BDHN ddng thdi lam giam uy tin cua nha cung cap dich vu doi vdi khach hang + Bo Id nhieu co hoi kinh doanh va de lot co hoi chiem tinh thi trudng + Lam keo dai quy trinh lap ke hoach dau tuva lam du an + Gay can trd Idn viec xay dung mot he thong marketing manh cua BDHN Thif ba, luan van da de xuat mot he thong cac giai phap nham doi mdi cdng tac dif bao nhu cau DWT cua BDHN, bao gom: - Xay dirng he thong thong tin phuc vu cdng tac dif bao nhu cau - Hoan thien va bo sung he thong cac phirong phap, cdng cu dif bao - Do’i mdi co cau to chifc thifc hien dif bao Cuoi cung, luan van, tac gia da van dung nhirng phirong phap du* bao da neu de dif bao nhu cau truy cap Internet giai doan 2004 - 2010 tren dia ban Ha Noi -97- Luan van thac si QTKD Doi mai cong tac da bao nhu cau D VVT a BDHN phu luc 2-1: cac mau bieu phuc vu lap cau truc mang tong the cua bdhn Dit bao so may dien thoai giai doan 2001-2005 STT Khu vuc xa phuong So dan A Al A2 Quan Ba Dinh Phuong Phuc Xa Nguyen Trung True An Tong cong B Bl B2 Quan Tay Ho Phuong Yen Phu Tu Lien Bm Tong cong Nam 1997 Dac diem kinh te' So ho 13.841 Thuong mai, dan cu 3722 So thue bao 1998 1999 1453 308 233 So may co dinh phat trien 2000 2001 2002 2003 275 285 333 355 2004 397 2005 444 Doi mdi cong tac du bao nhu cau DVVTd BDHN Luan van thac si QTKD Nang luc mang luoi vien thong TT HOST Tong dai ve tinh' Tinh den 12/1998 Truyen dan Chuyen mach Da DL lap Da DL sd dat sd lap dung dung dat Tinh den 12/2000 Trijyen Chuyen mach c an DL Da DL Da lap sd lap sd dat dung dat dung Tinh den 12/2002 Chuyen Trijyen mach c an DL Da DL Da lap sd lap sd dat dung dat dung Tinh den 12/2005 Chuyen Trijyen mach c an DL Da Da DL sd lap sd lap dat dung dat dung Mang ngoai vi T T Ten tram DLTD Nam 1998 So Tbi doi truy cap nhap goc So doi cap ngon DLTD Nam 2000 So Tbi doi truy cap nhap goc So doi cap ngon DLTD Nam 2002 So Tbi doi truy cap nhap goc So doi cap ngon DLTD Nam 2005 So Tbi truy doi cap nhap goc So doi cap ngon Doi mdi cong tac■ du bao nhu cau DVVTd BDHN Luan van thac si QTKD Chi so phat trien mang Noi dung STT Nam 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2651 2712 2775 2839 2905 2973 3200 594 608 622 637 651 667 5 5 5 118 Ghi chu Chi tieu kinh te xa hoi 1.1 So dan (1000 ngdi) I.2 So ho (1000 ho) I.3 So huyen I.4 So xa 118 118 118 118 118 118 I.5 Mat may dien thoai (may/100 dan) 14 15 17 18 19 22 29 I.6 Thu nhap binh quan (1000 VND/nam) 7218 7570 7954 8364 8804 9291 11859 So thue bao co dinh (may) 36107 405958 461307 506531 564277 641543 941543 So thue bao di dong (may) 63794 101794 139794 181794 223794 265794 608072 1320 2282 3245 5366 7488 9610 17901 415 625 805 1055 1305 1555 3055 27111 28144 29144 29644 30044 30344 31844 1082 1082 1582 1582 1582 2082 3082 10258 16258 22258 32258 42258 52258 94258 12822 14745 17694 24611 246226 270849 311476 437958 V • Chi tinh may co dinh Nhu cau dich vu So thue bao thue kenh rieng (Leased Line) So thue bao ISDN I.7 So thue bao truyen so lieu So thue bao nhan tin So thue bao cardphone So thue bao Voice-mail So thue bao Internet II I.8 Luu luong goi quoc te (1000 phut) 10778 11101 11656 I.9 Luu luong goi lien tinh (1000 phut) 184991 203494 223842 110 Luu luong goi noi tinh (1000 phut) Mang ludi Bao gom ca thue bao thue kenh rieng Luan van thac si QTKD Doi mdi cdng tac dit bao nhu cau DWTo' BDHN PHU LUC 2-2: CAC BIEU PHUC VU LAP KE HOACH CHUAN BI DAU TUCUA BDHN Bieu so 1: dir bao nhu cau va doanh thu phuc vu lap ke hoach chuan bi dau tur cho muc tieu kinh doanh cua BDHN TT (1) Diem chuyen mach (2) Ten tong dai va hinh thde (3) Tong sd thue bao den het nam 2000 (4) Sd thue bao phat trien nam 20012002 (5) Doanh thu binh quan 1TB/nam (6) To’ng doanh thu tang them nam (Di) (7)=(5)x(6) Chuyen mach va phu trd (8) Cdng be cap Von dau tif Truyen Nha dan tram (9) (10) Tong von dif kien Vi Ty sd Qi=Di/Vi (12) (13)=(7)/(12) (11L Bieu so 2: Bieu can doi nhu cau lap dat may - dir bao doanh thu phuc vu lap ke hoach chuan bi dau tir cho muc tieu phuc vu TT Ten xa chifa cd may dien thoai Da cd diem BD van hoa xa Khoang each tdi tram chuyen mach gan nhat (2) Theo thd tir iru tien (3) (4) Cd the keo cap Cd san Chifa cd dudng dudng cot cot (5) (6) Dung vo tuyen diem da diem Dung vo tuyen diem diem Dung VSAT (7 (8) (9) Von dau tif cho thue bao thdi (10) Doanh thu tif thue bao thif i nam Hieu qua dau tif thue bao thd 2,3 (11) (12)=(11)/(10) Luan van thac si QTKD Doi mdi cong tac dg bao nhu cau DVVTo' BDHN PHU LUC 3_1: PHAN TICH HOI QUY SO NGUdl SU'DUNG INTERNET Ghi chu: so ngUdi sU dung Internet thong ke theo chuan quy doi cua VNNIC : bang lan so thue bao Internet So ngu^di sa dung Internet Thdi gian tinh td 7/1998 (ddn vi: 06 thang) SD T 19870 29423 41470 56103 76606 91361 105444 114236 138747 Y = log(620000/SD-1) Y = log(465000/SD-1) 1.480029406 1.302583379 1.144591849 1.002210295 0.850849465 0.762395010 0.688410774 0.646141197 0.540147429 1.35027073 1.17037168 1.00915014 0.86262432 0.70500701 0.61168781 0.53274467 0.48720799 0.37132824 Ket qua ti'nh toan hoi quy: Theo kich ban 1: mi'Ic cao Regression Summary for Dependent Variable: Y R= 98241452 R2= 96513828 Adjusted R2= 96015803 F(1,7)=193.79 p
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