Edited by Pieter Kok, Derik Gelderblom, John O. Oucho & Johan van Zyl Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za CompiledbytheIntegratedRegionalandRuralDevelopmentResearchProgramme, HumanSciencesResearchCouncil PublishedbyHSRCPress PrivateBagX9182,CapeTown,8000,SouthAfrica www.hsrcpress.ac.za ©2006HumanSciencesResearchCouncil Firstpublished2006 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereprintedorreproducedorutilisedin anyformorbyanyelectronic,mechanical,orothermeans,includingphotocopying andrecording,orinanyinformationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermission inwritingfromthepublishers. ISBN0-7969-2113-X CoverbyFlame TextdesignbyChristabelHardacre PrintmanagementbycomPress DistributedinAfricabyBlueWeaverMarketingandDistribution POBox30370,Tokai,CapeTown,7966,SouthAfrica Tel:+27+21701-4477 Fax:+27+21701-7302 email:orders@blueweaver.co.za Distributedworldwide,exceptAfrica,byIndependentPublishersGroup 814NorthFranklinStreet,Chicago,IL60610,USA www.ipgbook.com Toorder,calltoll-free:1-800-888-4741 Allotherinquiries,Tel:+1+312-337-0747 Fax:+1+312-337-5985 email:Frontdesk@ipgbook.com Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za Contents Listoffiguresandtablesv Frequentlyusedacronymsandabbreviationsix Chapter1 Introduction PieterKok,DerikGelderblomandJohanvanZyl1 PARTI: Thecontextofmigrationfromacontinentalandregionalperspective Chapter2 InternalandinternationalmigrationwithinAfrica AderantiAdepoju26 Chapter3 Cross-bordermigrationandregionalinitiativesin managingmigrationinsouthernAfrica JohnO.Oucho47 Chapter4 HistoricalbackgroundtoSouthAfricanmigration MarieWentzelandKholadiTlabela71 Chapter5 MigrationinSouthAfricaincomparativeperspective BarbaraA.Anderson97 PARTII: FindingsfromSouthAfricansurveydata Chapter6 MigrationandhealthinSouthAfrica NiëlRouxandLouisvanTonder120 Chapter7 Evaluatingthe2001–02HSRCMigrationSurvey JohanvanZyl147 Chapter8 ContemporarySouthAfricanmigrationpatternsandintentions MarieWentzel,JohanViljoenandPieterKok171 Chapter9 Migrantmotivationsandcapacitiesinrelationtokeymigrationstreams CatherineCross205 Chapter10 Thelimitsandpossibilitiesofmigrantnetworks DerikGelderblomandWhynieAdams227 Chapter11 MigrationintentionsinSouthAfricaandelsewhere GordonF.DeJongandMicheleSteinmetz249 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za PARTIII:Atheoreticalsynthesis Chapter12 Towardsasyntheticmodelofmigration DerikGelderblom268 APPENDICES AppendixA ThehistoryandmethodologyoftheHSRCsurveys PieterKok,JohanvanZylandJacquesPietersen292 AppendixB GISasatoolinmigrationresearch GinaWeir-SmithandS’bonisileZama307 AppendixC Applyingthemultiregionalprojectionmodelusingcensusmigrationdata: atheoreticalbasis JacquesLedentandSulaimanBah327 AppendixD Provinciallevelsofsatisfactionwithservicedelivery: ananalyticalframeworkbasedoninterprovincialmigration OumarBouareandJohannaNkau343 Abouttheauthors355 Index359 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za v Listoffiguresandtables Figures Figure1.1Theworld’sforeign-bornpopulation2 Figure1.2Globalnetmigrationpatterns3 Figure1.3Specificpoliciesonimmigration4 Figure1.4Somespecificpoliciesonemigration5 Figure1.5Theworld:urbanandruralpopulations(actualandprojected)11 Figure1.6TrendsinurbanisationlevelsofselectedsouthernAfricancountries(actualand projected)11 Figure1.7Governmentpoliciesoninternalmigrationintometropolitanareasinthemore developedregionsoftheworld12 Figure1.8Governmentpoliciesoninternalmigrationintometropolitanareasinthe less developedregionsoftheworld13 Figure3.1AveragenumberofpeopleemployedonSouthAfricanminesbycountryoforigin, 1986–199258 Figure5.1Comparativegrowthratesper1000population103 Figure5.2Estimatednetmigrationratesper1000population103 Figure5.3Legalimmigration,emigrationandnetmigrationratesforSouthAfrica per1000population104 Figure5.4NetmigrantstoSouthAfrica,fromresidualmethodandfromofficialdata105 Figure5.5Percentageofpopulationsinurbanareas108 Figure5.6Growthratesofurbanpopulations(per1000population)109 Figure5.7Estimatedratesofnetrural–urbanmigrations(per1000population)110 Figure5.8PercentagesofAfricansandofnon-Africansinurbanareas111 Figure5.9LivingsconditionsforvariousSouthAfricangroupsin1994and1999112 FigureB1Intra-provincialmigrationintheEasternCape,2001308 FigureB2Intra-provincialmigrationmovementstowardstheCapemagisterialdistrict,2001310 FigureB3Intra-provincialmigrationtoGauteng,2001311 FigureB4MigrantstoGautengbyprovinceoforigin,2001312 FigureB5Comparisonofemploymentandunemploymentin1996and2001312 FigureB6Inter-provincialmigrationtoKwaZulu-Natal,2001313 FigureB7Inter-provincialmigrationtotheWesternCape,2001314 FigureB8MigrantstoWesternCapebyprovinceoforigin,2001314 FigureB9Inter-provincialmigrationtoGauteng,KwaZulu-NatalandWesternCape,2001315 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za vi FigureB10Comparinginter-provincialmigrationinGauteng,2001316 FigureB11Copyingfeaturesfromonelayertoanother318 FigureB12Exampleofanorigintablewithallthecalculatedfields319 FigureB13Exampleofaflowtable320 FigureB14Exampleofdatadirectories321 FigureB15ExampleofopeningfilesinFlowmap321 FigureB16PeopleflowsfromselectedmagisterialdistrictstoEastLondon,2001322 FigureB17Redrawingorerasingthescreen323 FigureB18MigrationflowsfromselectedmagisterialdistrictstoEastLondon,2001324 Tables Table1.1SelectedsouthernAfricancountries’immigrantpopulations (internationalmigrantstock)9 Table1.2IndicatorsofspatialpopulationdistributionforselectedsouthernAfricancountries9 Table3.1TypologyofcurrentinternationalmigrationinsouthernAfrica, bytypicalcharacteristicsandcountryoforigin/destination50 Table3.2Totalpopulation,migrantstockandemigrationandmigrationpoliciesin southernAfricancountries1990–200053 Table3.3SampleofimmigrantstoSouthAfricabycountryoforiginandcountry ofpreviousresidence(weightedpopulationfigures)54 Table3.4EmploymentonSouthAfricangoldminesbycountryoforigin1986–1992 58 Table3.5RefugeesandasylumseekersinsouthernAfricabyoriginandhostcountry,200161 Table4.1NumbersofAfricansinurbanareasbetween1914and1960 84 Table6.1Healthoutcomesasconsideredbymigrationphase 122 Table6.2Frequencydistributionofrespondentsbymigrationstatusand selectedsocio-demographiccharacteristics127 Table6.3Self-ratedhealthstatus 128 Table6.4Percentagesindicatingknowledgeofhavingcontractedspecificdiseases 129 Table6.5Primaryreasonformovetocurrentplaceofresidence 130 Table6.6Pre-migrationknowledgeofhealthandpublicservices, bysocio-demographiccharacteristics131 Table6.7Migrantsindicatingimprovementinspecifichealthindicators 133 Table6.8Percentageofmigrantsindicatingsicknessbeforeandaftermoving 135 Table6.9Logisticregressionanalysisforself-ratingofhealth136 Table6.10Logisticregressionanalysisforknowledgeofhealthandpublicservices beforepreviousmove138 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za vii Table6.11Logisticregressionanalysisforspecifichealthindicators139 Table7.1HSRCMigrationSurvey:totalnon-responseratesbypopulationgroup 148 Table7.2HSRCMigration Survey:itemnon-responseformonthlyincome148 Table8.1Cross-bordermigrantsbycountryoforigin(lastmoveonly) 175 Table8.2Employmentstatusofvariousmigrantcategories 176 Table8.3Reasonsfornotworking,bymigrantcategory 176 Table8.4Occupationalstatus,byrespondentgroup 177 Table8.5Migrants’monthlyincome,bymigranttype 178 Table8.6Cross-bordermigrants’lengthofstayincurrentarea178 Table8.7Cross–bordermigrants’reasonsforleavingpreviousareaofresidence 179 Table8.8Mainreasonsformoving,bymigrantgrouping 180 Table8.9Cross-bordermigrants’reasonsforselectingdestinationarea 181 Table8.10Cross-bordermigrants’priorknowledgeofdestinationarea 181 Table8.11Cross-bordermigrants’informationsourcesondestinationarea182 Table8.12Cross-bordermigrantdecisionmakersformovetocurrentarea 182 Table8.13Levelofsatisfactionwithpresentcircumstances,byrespondentgroup 183 Table8.14Internalmigrants’provinceoforigin(beforelastmove) 185 Table8.15Employmentstatusofvariousmigrantcategories 185 Table8.16Reasonsfornotworking,bymigrantcategory185 Table8.17Distributionofoccupationalstatus,byrespondentgroup 186 Table8.18Distributionofrespondents’monthlyincome 187 Table8.19Internalmigrants’periodofstayincurrentarea 187 Table8.20Internalmigrants’reasonsforleavingpreviousarea 188 Table8.21Internalmigrants’reasonsforselectingdestinationarea 188 Table8.22Respondents’mainreasonsformoving 189 Table8.23Internalmigrants’priorknowledgeofdestinationarea190 Table8.24Internalmigrants’informationsourcesregardingdestinationarea 190 Table8.25Internalmigrantdecisionmakersformovetocurrentarea 190 Table8.26Satisfactionlevelsregardingpresentcircumstances,byrespondenttype 191 Table8.27Currentprovinceandpossibledestinationinnextfiveyears 193 Table8.28‘Verylikely’interprovincial/internationalmigrationinnextfiveyears 194 Table8.29StatisticaldetailsofexplanatoryvariablesusedintheMNA 195 Table8.30Migrationintentions,byagegroup196 Table8.31Migrationintentions,bycurrentmaritalstatus 196 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za viii Table8.32Migrationintentions,byeducation197 Table8.33Migrationintentions,bylifesatisfaction 197 Table8.34Migrationintentions,byexistenceornotofmigrantnetwork 198 Table8.35Migrationintentions,byvalue-expectancyfor‘urbanenvironment’ 198 Table8.36Migrationintentions,byvalue-expectancyfor‘wealthandcomfort’ 198 Table8.37Migrationintentions,byvalue-expectancyfor‘affiliationandmorality’ 199 Table9.1ScaleofmigrationactivityinSouthAfrica,byAfricanpopulation 208 Table9.2Yearofmovetoareaofinterview 209 Table9.3Proportionsoflifetimeflowtakingplaceviamajorstreams210 Table9.4Typeofareawhereborn,bymigrationstream 213 Table9.5Previousresidenceareatype,bymigrationstream 214 Table9.6Reasonsforleavinglaststoparea,bymigrationstream 215 Table9.7Reasonsforchoosingtomovetocurrentarea 216 Table9.8Capacities:demographicandeconomicfactors218 Table9.9Economicactivity,landaccessandlabourmigrancy 219 Table10.1Comparisonbetweenmarketandnetworkexchange 229 Table10.2Immediatefamilyorclosefriendsatdestination 242 Table10.3Immediatefamilyorclosefriendsatdestination,byincomeandgender 242 Table10.4Previousmigrations:mainsourceofinformationaboutdestination243 Table10.5Intendedmigrations:mainsourceofinformationaboutdestination 243 Table10.6Previousmigrations:mainsourceofinformation 243 Table10.7Intendedmigrations:mainsourceofinformation 243 Table10.8Respondents’networkconnectionsinpreviousandcurrentlocations244 Table11.1Ruralandurbanresidents’intentionstomigrate 253 Table11.2Intentionstomigrate,byselectedindividualandhousehold 254 Table11.3Logisticregressionofintentionstomigrate:totalsample258 Table11.4Logisticregressionofintentionstomigrate:ruralandurbansamples 262 TableA1Realisationresultsbysurveycompany 303 TableA2Realisationresultsintermsoforiginalstratification 303 TableB1Filestructureexample 318 TableB2 Exampleofaflowtable319 TableD1Questionnaireitemtobeusedthroughouttheprovincesofacountry 346 TableD2Exampleofproportionaldistributionofrespondentcategories 347 Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za ix Frequentlyusedacronymsandabbreviations BBC BritishBroadcastingCorporation CENPOPS CentreforPopulationStudies(UniversityofPretoria) COMESA CommonMarketforEasternandSouthernAfrica DBSA DevelopmentBankofSouthernAfrica EA enumeratorarea GIS geographicalinformationsystem(s) GNP grossnationalproduct HSRC HumanSciencesResearchCouncil(SouthAfrica) ILO InternationalLabourOffice(UN) IMP InternationalMigrationPolicy IOM InternationalOrganizationforMigration LDRs less-developedregions(oftheworld) MDRs more-developedregions(oftheworld) MIDA MigrationforDevelopmentinAfrica MIDSA MigrationDialogueforSouthernAfrica MNA multivariatenominal-scaleanalysis MPI MigrationPolicyInstitute NRC NativeRecruitingCorporation NEPAD NewPartnershipforAfrica’sDevelopment OHS OctoberHouseholdSurvey PRB PopulationReferenceBureau(USA) SADC SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity SADCC SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCoordinationConference SAMHS SouthAfricanMigrationandHealthSurvey SAMP SouthernAfricanMigrationProject SANSA SouthAfricanNetworkofSkillsAbroad SDI SpatialDevelopmentInitiative StatsSA StatisticsSouthAfrica UN UnitedNations UNDP UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgram UNECA UnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforAfrica Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za x UNFPA UnitedNationsPopulationFund UNHCR UnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees Unisa UniversityofSouthAfrica WHO WorldHealthOrganization(UN) WNLA WitwatersrandNativeLabourAssociation(Wenela) ZAR ZuidAfrikaanscheRepubliek Free download from www.hsrcpress.ac.za . www.hsrcpress.ac.za introduction • 1 CHAPTER1 Introduction PieterKok,DerikGelderblom and JohanvanZyl Thetenthanniversaryofthe1994firstdemocraticelections in South Africa was anopportunetimetoreflectonwhathad– and whathadnot–changed in the countrysincetheendofapartheid.GrandApartheidhadattemptedtoalterthe racialdistributionofthepopulationthroughmechanismssuchasan‘influxcontrol’ system,populationrelocation and thecreationofrelativelydensesettlements in the formerhomelandareas.Assuchithadanimportantimpactonpatternsofinternal migration. In addition,becausethepermanentsettlementofblackpeoplefrom Africancountriesnorthof South Africanborderswasnotallowed,apartheidalso changedpatternsofinternational migration. Oneofthethingsweneedtoascertain thereforeishowmuchtheliftingofapartheidhasaffected migration patterns,both internally and in the southern Africanregion. Thistaskimplies,firstly,thatsomepurelydescriptiveresearchonbothcurrent and past migration patterns in South Africa needstobeundertaken,investigatinghow much migration occurredduringtheapartheidperiod and afterit. In addition,it stillneedstobedeterminedwhetherthe migration waspredominantlyrural–urban orrural–rural.Alsotobeconsiderediswhetheratypologythataccountsforthe areasbetweenrural and urbanwouldnotbemoreappropriate in thedescription of migration patterns–forexampleonegradingfromrural,throughsemi-urban, peri-urban, and urbanareastofullymetropolitan.Agreaterunderstandingofthe historicalcontextof migration in South Africa isthusneeded,toachieveamore nuancedviewofthecontinuities and discontinuities in South African migration overtime. Migration issues and implicationsforpolicy In thisbook,whichdealslargelywiththecausesof migration, weattempttoanalyse and evaluatebothinternational and internal migration in South and southern Africa. Althoughitspolicy and planningimplicationsarenotalwaysobvious, in mostcases theindividualchaptersbringtheissuesinvolvedclearlytothefore.Perhapsabroad- brushreminderoftheseissueswouldbeappropriatehere. International migration Storiesaboutforeignmigrants–legal,illegal and asylumseekers–appearalmost daily in thenews.Governments…notetheseeventswithalarm and grapplewith policyreformsaimedatselectingcertainmigrants and keepingoutothers.(Hatton &Williamson2002:1) ThisquotationfromHatton and Williamsonisausefulsummaryoftheimpactthat international migration oftenhasonpublicperceptions and henceonlegislated Free. Southern AfricanDevelopmentCoordinationConference SAMHS South African Migration and HealthSurvey SAMP Southern African Migration Project SANSA South AfricanNetworkofSkillsAbroad SDI