LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ research on developing sustainable and climate resilient livelihood in giao an commune, giao thuy district, nam dinh province

INTRODUCTION

The necessity of research

Climate change (CC) is considered to be a global problem and the most serious challenge for all mankind In which, Vietnam is one of the countries most heavily affected by CC with major manifestations including increasing temperatures, unstable rainfall, rising sea levels and the changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events All not only affect economic development but also create pressures on community, especially agricultural and fishery-based livelihoods which are still highly dependent on nature

The development of sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood is considered to an effective solution that enables solving CC issues, reducing disaster risks and developing sustainably (Ayeb-Karlsson et al., 2015; Tanner et al., 2015; Amin et al.,

According to CC scenario of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) based on RCP 4.5 of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in 2100, Vietnam's surface temperatures are predicted to increase in a range of 1.9˚ - 2.4˚C in the North and 1.7˚- 1.9˚C in the South while the annual rainfall would commonly increase by 5 - 10% Also, extreme events would occur more frequently and seriously Sea level in the South would be higher than the North at the end of the 21 st century If the sea level rises 100 cm, about 16.8% of the total area of Red River Delta (RRD) will be affected In particular, Nam Dinh, located at the southern gateway of the RRD with a coastline of 72 km long and 04 large estuaries (such as Ba Lat, Day, Lach Giang and Ha Lan), is the most vulnerable province because of having the highest risk of inundation (58.0%) (MONRE, 2016)

Nam Dinh province often has to face many serious challenges Extreme weather events associated with sea level rise (SLR) and saline intrusion negatively impact the production activities of the people here If the sea level increases by 12 - 74 cm by 2100 compared to the period 1980 - 1999, the total flooded area is estimated at

61.71 km 2 In particular, Giao Thuy district has the highest flooded area of about 34.27 km 2 (People's Committee of Nam Dinh province, 2011)

Giao An, a commune located in the southeast of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, is one of five communes in the buffer zone of Xuan Thuy National Park (XTNP) Its natural conditions are very favorable for the development of agriculture and fishery However, with low topography, Giao An is regularly affected by extreme events as well as CC Take typhoon Son Tinh in 2012 as an example It had caused damage to 60% of the hybrid rice area, 100% of the vegetable farming area, 50% of the clam farming area and 80% of the freshwater aquaculture area in Giao An

Recently, typhoon No 1 in 2016 caused 100% inundation of vegetables and newly transplanted rice, as well as many aquatic animals in ponds, cattle and poultry, died

The total losses amounted to VND 26.7 billion (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c) Meanwhile, the main livelihoods of the commune are agriculture, aquaculture and fishing which are closely attached and dependent on meteorological and hydrological regimes of the region Consequently, if there are any negative changes in climate, it can adversely impact the livelihood of people here However, in Vietnam as well as in Giao An, there are no studies on climate-resilient livelihoods

In this context, the author selected the topic " Research on developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihood in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province " The study focused on agricultural livelihoods comprising rice farming, vegetable farming and livestock husbandry, as well as fishery livelihoods including fishing and aquaculture Research outcomes are expected to contribute more useful information and recommendations for livelihood development in the research site in particular and also to be a source for references to areas with similar conditions in general.

Research objectives and tasks

- The current situation of livelihoods in Giao An commune are assessed;

- The climate variation in past, present and future in the research site are identified;

- The impacts of CC on livelihoods in the research site are assessed;

- The resilience to CC of Giao An commune is investigated;

- The solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao

- Finding out the theoretical basis and research results related to develop sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods;

- Assessing the current situation of livelihoods in the research site (according to human, natural, physical, social and financial capitals);

- Identifying the climate variation in past, present and future in the research site;

- Assessing CC impacts on livelihoods in the research site;

- Investigating the resilience to CC of Giao An commune;

- Proposing solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for the research site.

The research questions and hypotheses

(1) What is the current situation of livelihoods in the research site?

(2) How did climate variations occur in the research site?

(3) How has CC affected the livelihoods of Giao An commune community?

(4) What is the climate resilience of Giao An commune?

(5) What are the solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient for the research site?

(1) Giao An commune has a variety of livelihoods In which, agriculture and fishery are main livelihood activities but the available livelihood assets of people in Giao An commune are limited

(2) Climate change has been presented in Giao An commune and is expected to become more and more complicated in the future

(3) The livelihood of people in Giao An commune negatively impacts by CC

(4) The resilience level of Giao An commune is moderate

(5) General solution to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for Giao An commune is to raise awareness of local people about CC.

Objects and scope of the research

Developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods in Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

- Geographical scope: Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

- Time scope: The research were conducted from 2019 to 2020.

Literature review

In this section, the thesis overviews the situation of research at the international and national level as well as in the study area under three topics as follows (a) livelihoods/sustainable livelihoods; (b) CC and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods; and (c) building climate-resilient livelihoods

1.5.1 Studies at the international level a Livelihoods/sustainable livelihoods

Since the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (also known as the Earth Summit) in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil in 1992, sustainable development has become a common trend that all humanity is working towards Accordingly, in rural development, there is a trend towards sustainable livelihood development including poverty reduction goals

The term “sustainable livelihood” was first introduced in the 1987 Brundtland Report (also known as Our Common Future) of the World Commission on Environment and Development as a way to integrate economy, society, and ecology in a policy framework Moreover, sustainable livelihoods are defined as sufficient guarantee of people's needs including food, money and other assets (WCED, 1987)

Previously, livelihood is understood as a means of earning a living to serve the basic needs of life (For example, food, houses, clothes, medicine ) The concept of

“sustainable livelihood” is also understood as an effort to reduce poverty (Krantz,

2001) However, these concepts do not cover all aspects of livelihood activities, especially assets that limit or enhance human capacity

The term “sustainable livelihood” continues to be expanded by Robert Chambers and Gordon Conway Livelihoods comprise the capabilities, assets (store, resources, claim and access) and activities required for a means of living Livelihoods are only sustainable when they can cope and recover from shocks, maintain or improve their capacity and assets and provide sustainable livelihood opportunities for successive generations; as well as contribute to other livelihoods at the local or global level and in the short and long term (Chambers and Conway, 1992)

Based on the study of Chambers and Robert, there have been a lot of arguments adjusted for the concept of “sustainable livelihood” Of particular importance are the contributions of Scoones; researchers of the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, UK; and DFID b Climate change and its impacts on agricultural and fishery livelihoods

In the 21 st century, CC is a global problem, the most serious challenge for mankind and the concern of most countries In 1896, CC issue through quantification of carbon dioxide contribution in causing the greenhouse effect was mentioned by Mr

In the late 1980s, IPCC was established with the United Nations Environment Programme co-founded (in 1988) to assess "scientific, technical and socio-economic information to allow to understand the risks of CC caused by human activities”

(IPCC, 2007) Since then, there have been many international organizations and scientists assessing the impacts of CC on the fields in regions and territories

All studies and deployments on CC have been analyzed and synthesized in 5 reports of IPCC (First Assessment Report, 1990; Second Assessment Report, 1999;

Third Assessment Report, 2001; Fourth Assessment report, 2007 and Fifth Assessment Report, 2014) In particular, IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report received the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore All reports conclude that human activities are the main cause of CC and CC has been creating climate shocks for all of humanity, especially agricultural production and fisheries (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2014)

In rural areas, the majority of livelihoods are based on natural resources such as agricultural or fishery livelihoods which are very sensitive to changes in weather conditions (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019)

Therefore, any small change in weather conditions can have a great impact on the well-being of rural households in developing countries (Altieri and Koohafkan, 2008;

Musemwa et al., 2012; Dzvimbo et al., 2017; Araro et al., 2019) In other words, CC has a huge effect on agricultural, fishery production and livelihood strategies of rural households c Building climate-resilient livelihoods

Resilience is considered a common research and policy concept in the context of CC adaptation and development on environmental change (Adger et al., 2011)

According to Tanner et al (2015), the concept of resilience needs to pay more attention to people's livelihood activities if they want to address the negative impacts of CC, the limits of adaptation strategies as well as public implementation Climate- resilient livelihood is defined as the power of all generations to maintain and improve their livelihood opportunities and well-being despite environmental disturbances/fluctuations, economic, social and political This is underpinned by empowerment, by action, placed in dynamic social transitions

According to the working paper of the United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (2015) proposed 6 global policy recommendations that are directly related to climate-resilient livelihoods for developing a more sustainable future including (1) applying the human rights perspective to resilient livelihoods; (2) addressing the root causes of vulnerability thereby enabling the strengthening of the livelihood system; (3) empowering the poor and vulnerable as a key pillar in building resilient livelihoods; (4) assisting those who cannot migrate to places affected by climate stress; (5) policy frameworks in response should include a broader understanding of socio-cultural values (such as identity); and (6) developing robust methods and large datasets to support resilient livelihood support research

“Action research on climate-resilient livelihoods for land-poor and land-less people” project of Integrated Community based Adaptation in the Mekong also mentions the serious impact of CC on the future survival and development of livelihood activities in An Giang and Soc Trang Province especially focuses on women, land-less, land-poor, ethnic minorities and other vulnerable groups

Therefore, the project proposes climate-resilient livelihood options for target groups such as azolla (water fern) production, organic mushroom farming, organic onion- based rotational integrated crops management farming, organic bio-fertilizer production… (CARE, 2015)

The climate-resilient livelihood activity in the south-central coastal region of Bangladesh (Amin et al., 2018) shows the situation in developing countries on the resilience of livelihood activities that are limited when not develop climate-resilient alternative livelihood activities, including Bangladesh Housework and fishing are key livelihoods for people in the Barisal district CC impacts on livelihood activities in the area are medium-high level while the resilience of this traditional livelihood is 36%

The study calculates a person's annual loss if they do not have any resilience to climate and natural disasters in the study area

1.5.2 Studies at the national level a Livelihoods/Sustainable livelihoods

Overview of the research site

Giao An, which is a coastal commune in the southeast of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, is one of 5 communes in the buffer zone of XTNP Giao An has a flat topography and a slope from the West to the Southeast (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018a)

- The North borders Giao Thanh commune;

- The South borders the East Sea;

- The East borders Giao Thien commune;

- The West borders Giao Lac commune b Climate

Giao An commune has the characteristics of tropical monsoon climate with 4 distinct seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter

Sunshine: Every year, on average, there are 250 sunny days, the total annual sunshine hours is about 1,650 - 1,700 hours Especially in 2015, 2016 and 2017, the number of sunshine hours increased dramatically from 1,820 to 1,835 hours, accounting for about 70% of the summer sunshine hours (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2017)

Rainfall: Average annual rainfall is from 1700 to 1800 mm, rainfall concentrates in July, August, September and October with nearly 80% of the total rainfall of the year The day with the highest rainfall is up to 200 - 250 mm Rainfall varies from year to year without decreasing from 1986 to 2015 and does not follow any natural rules (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2017)

Winds and typhoons: During the year, there are 2 prevailing wind directions including Southeast wind blows in summer at a speed of 2 - 4 m/s and Northeast wind does not have a high wind speed but usually causes sudden cold in winter months.On average, each year it is affected by 5 - 10 typhoons with heavy rain and strong winds c Hydrological characteristics

Giao An has a dense network of rivers In addition to the two main rivers named Nguyen Van Be and Hang Tong rivers, there are tributaries These are responsible for not only water supply for agricultural production but also drainage in the rainy season (Figure 1.1)

Figure 1.1 Map of disaster alerts in Giao An commune

(Source: MCD, 2013) 1.6.2 Socio-economic features

Giao An is a coastal commune in Giao Thuy district formed by alluvial deposits of the Red River About 300 to 400 years ago, this land was a pristine beach with lots of reeds and muddy With the solidarity, the people of Giao An were together to embank dykes, encroach the sea and implement soil conditioning By the end of 1860, Giao An commune was established, comprising Trung Uyen, Hanh Thien, Xuan Hy, Thuy Nhai, Hoanh Lo, Tra Huong and Tra Lu villages (divided into 16 hamlets) At the beginning of

1972, implementing the Resolution of the Party Central Committee, the Resolution of the People's Council at the commune level, Giao An once again continued to embank the dyke, encroach upon the sea and organized the migration of people to establish 6 hamlets of Dien Bien new economic zone (from hamlet 16 to 22) From a poor commune with previously poor infrastructure, Giao An has been constantly innovating and developing

Currently, the infrastructure is gradually being improved, the culture and society are growing along with the good implementation of social security policies That increasingly enhances the material and spiritual life of the people in the commune In 2017, Giao An was recognized as a commune fulfilled the criteria of a new rural area (USAID, 2017) a Economic characteristics

+ Cultivation: The total cultivated area of spring-summer crop in 2019 was 400.1 ha The average rice yield reached 63.88 quintals/ha The total area of vegetables was 70.9 ha, of which the vegetables in Dien Bien new economic zone was 25.2 ha (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019)

+ Livestock: According to the statistics as of April 1 st , 2019, the total number of cattle and poultry in the whole commune was as follows: 2,448 pigs; 102 buffaloes, cows and goats; 23,177 poultry; and 3,157 other kinds of livestock After the outbreak of African swine fever, many households had shifted their investments to poultry farming; up to now, Giao An had 43,177 poultry (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019)

The total area for aquaculture was 669.2 ha In which, the area of shrimp ponds was 610.2 ha, the area of freshwater aquaculture was 59 ha The total production of fishery products from catches and aquaculture was estimated at 2,200 tons (Giao An Commune People's Committee, 2019) b Social and cultural characteristics

In 2017, Giao An commune had a population of 3,090 households and 9,060 people The population was distributed into 22 villages (Table 1.1) The commune has two main religions: Buddhism and Catholicism Of which, Catholics accounted for 31% and 69% was Buddhists (People's Committee of Giao An Commune, 2017b)

Table 1.1 Demographics by hamlets of Giao An commune in 2017

No Hamlet Number of household

Number of people No Hamlet Number of household

(Source: People's Committee of Giao An Commune, 2017b)

1.6.3 General assessment of natural, economic and social conditions a Advantage

In general, Giao An commune is a land with a lot of silt and alluvium Along with the dense network of rivers and the tropical monsoon climate, Giao An commune is very favorable for the development of agriculture and aquaculture (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2013) Moreover, Giao An is surrounded by mangrove, adjacent to XTNP, which is oriented to develop into a biosphere reserve of the RRD b Disadvantage

As a coastal commune, Giao An is frequently affected by natural disasters and extreme weather events Of which, 6 hamlets located in Dien Bien new economic zone are located outside the central dyke so they are often affected by floods, typhoons and high tides (MCD, 2013)

Moreover, the ecological environment in some residential areas as well as the field ecosystem are affected by human activities In Giao An commune, the process of treating waste in residential areas has not been synchronized along with the people's habit of using chemical fertilizers and pesticides (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2019) Over 50% of nitrogen, 50% of potassium and about 80% of phosphate were excess, which directly or indirectly caused environmental pollution

Theoretical basis

Climate change refers to changes in climate state that can be known (for example, by using statistical tests) by changes in mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for over a long period, usually decades or longer CC may be caused by natural internal processes or external forcings such as solar cycle modifications, volcanic eruptions and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use (IPCC, 2014)

Livelihood includes capabilities, assets (both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living (DFID, 1999; 2007)

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can cope with and recover from impacts, stresses and shocks Besides, it can maintain or promote its capabilities and assets both now and in the future without undermining the natural resources base (DFID, 2007)

Livelihood adaptation to CC is a livelihood that must be able to cope with CC/reduce greenhouse gas emissions and recover from CC impacts, especially natural disasters/extreme weather events (storms, floods, droughts, extreme hot weathers, damaging cold…) as well as ensure, maintain or stably increase productivity/output and at the same time be appropriate with local socio-economic capabilities and conditions (CARE, 2015)

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood exposed to shocks and stresses caused by CC has the capable of resisting, absorbing, adapting and recovering from the impacts of the shocks and stresses in a timely and efficient manner, including through preservation, restoration and when it is possible to improve its basic structures and functions (CARE, 2015)

From there, this term is defined in the thesis as follows:

Climate change is a change in climate state which includes temperature, rainfall, SLR and extreme weather events over a long period of about 30 years

Livelihood includes all assets (such as human, social, physical, physical and financial capitals) and activities necessary to be the means of human life

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that can solve and recover from external stresses and impacts and does not depend on external support Moreover, assets are used effectively at the same time the existing capacity and resources are enhanced

Climate-resilient livelihood means a livelihood can be adapted, reorganized and developed to improve the sustainability of the system, which makes better preparations for CC impacts in the future Climate-resilient livelihood includes strengthening not only the internal capacity of livelihoods (livelihood resources) but also climate resilience

In this section, the thesis presents the theoretical basis of the main contents are (1) sustainable livelihood and (2) climate-resilient livelihood a Sustainable livelihood

Sustainable livelihood is a livelihood that is able to solve or recover from stresses; maintaining existing capabilities and resources without compromising the natural resource base (Scoones, 1998) Determining sustainable livelihoods requires the following criteria or analytical framework:

- Criteria for assessing the sustainability of livelihoods

Scoones (1998) and DFID (1999, 2007) agreed to give some criteria to assess the sustainability of livelihoods in 4 aspects: economic, social, environmental and institutional

Economic sustainability: is assessed primarily by the increase in household income

Social sustainability: is assessed through some criteria such as creating more jobs, reducing poverty, ensuring food security and improving welfare

Environmental sustainability: is assessed through more sustainable use of natural resources (land, water, forests, aquatic resources ) without causing environmental damage (such as environmental pollution, environmental degradation ) and able to adapt to external stresses and shocks

Institutional sustainability: is assessed through many criteria such as a fully and comprehensively developed legal system, a participatory policy-making process of citizens, agencies/organizations in the public and private sector work effectively; thereby creating an enabling environment for institutions and policies to help livelihoods improve continuously over time (Nguyen Van Suu, 2010; Nguyen Tho Dat and Vu Thi Hoai Thu, 2012)

The livelihood framework is a diagram designed to comprehensively consider all the different factors affecting livelihoods, especially the opportunities to shape a human livelihood strategy

A lot of livelihood frameworks have been proposed, in which, the sustainable livelihood framework (SLF) developed by Department for International Development (DFID) in 1999, has been widely applied by scholars and organizations This SLF has elements and components of livelihoods, consisting of (1) livelihood assets; (2) livelihood strategies; (3) livelihood outcomes; (4) policies, institutions and processes; and (5) vulnerability context (Figure 1.2)

Figure 1.2 The sustainable livelihood framework

According to the above framework, it can be seen that there are two groups of factors affecting household livelihoods The first group relates to the household level, comprising livelihood assets, livelihood strategies and livelihood outcomes The second group relates to factors outside the household, including transforming structures and processes and vulnerability context These elements both play independent roles and interact with each other

Livelihood assets are both tangible and intangible capitals that people have to sustain or develop their livelihoods Livelihood resources are divided into 5 main types: (1) natural capital, (2) physical capital, (3) financial capital, (4) human capital and (5) social capital

(1) Natural capital: includes natural resources that humans can use to carry out livelihood activities, such as land, forests, marine resources, water, air, biodiversity

(2) Physical capital: consists of basic infrastructure systems supporting livelihood activities, such as roads, houses, water supply, drainage, energy (electricity)…

(3) Financial capital: comprises the various financial sources that people use to achieve their livelihood outcomes, including savings, cash, jewelry, loans, incomes…

(4) Human capital: includes skills, knowledge, experience, work capacity, health, education levels that enable people to implement various livelihood strategies and achieve get different livelihood outcomes

(5) Social capital: implies the relationships between people and people in the society on which people rely on to carry out livelihood activities, mainly including social networks, members of community organizations, market access… b Climate-resilient livelihood

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood which when exposed to climate shocks and stresses, has the capacity to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of the shocks and stresses in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation, restoration and where possible, improvement of its essential basic structures and functions (CARE, 2015)

Climate-resilient livelihood is a livelihood that meets the following needs (1) sustainable, (2) climate-resistant, (3) gender equality and (4) bring key benefits to livelihood groups

Table 1.3 The criteria of climate-resilient livelihood

1 Economic Compatibility 1.1 Market Demand & Access

1.2 Financial Investment & Risk 1.3 Skills and Technology

3 Socio-cultural Compatibility 3.1 Local/Indigenous Knowledge

3.2 Suitability for the poor 3.3 Suitability for Women 3.4 Suitability for Ethnic Minorities 3.5 Suitability for People with Disabilities 3.6 Location

II Climate Resilient Livelihood Criteria

4 Climate Compatibility 4.1 Resilience to Existing Climate Change

& Impacts 4.2 Resilience to Future Climate Change &

5.2 Sustainable Resource Use 5.3 Suitability for Ecosystem Shifts

The center of the framework is livelihood (including agricultural and fishery livelihoods) assessed by 5 livelihood assets This livelihood is heavily affected by shocks and external contexts such as policies, environmental problems, especially CC

METHODOLOGY

Approaches

The thesis used 3 approaches as follows: (1) systematic, interdisciplinary approach; (2) combined top-down and bottom-up approach; and (3) DFID's sustainable livelihoods approach

Systematic approach being a way of seeing the world through its system structure, hierarchy and dynamics is a comprehensive and dynamic approach (Nguyen Dinh Hoe and Vu Van Hieu, 2013) Livelihood is a holistic system and is influenced by many factors such as policy institutions, ecosystems, CC Therefore, this approach helped the author have a systematic perspective on the interactions and links between the elements in the livelihood system

Interdisciplinary approach is to use the philosophy, knowledge and methods of a field but within the framework of another field (Truong Quang Hoc, 2012) The interdisciplinary research includes many different fields that are linked in a way that cuts across the subject's boundaries to create new knowledge and theories to achieve research objectives Therefore, the proposed solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilience livelihoods required the integration of various fields such as fishery; economy; society…

2.1.2 Combined top-down and bottom-up approach

The bottom-up approach otherwise known as community-based approach (CBA) is a sustainable approach and is implemented based on the principle of “Carry out from the community, rely on the community and benefit the community” in order to study the current situation of livelihoods and thereby find out solutions to improve the activeness of people in responding to natural disasters and CC (Vo Trung Tin,

2016) CBA creates flexibility in adapting to CC, taking advantage of internal resources, available (people, means) in the community

Moreover, if both bottom-up and top-down approach was used simultaneously through studying guidelines and policies of all levels, development strategies, plannings, and action plans of sectors and localities, the activities to assess the current situation and develop climate-resilient livelihoods would be systematic and consistent, suitable with the resources of the community as well as the guidelines and policies of the local authorities

2.1.3 DFID's sustainable livelihood framework approach

Sustainable livelihood framework is a visualization tool developed by DFID from the 1990s to understand the different types of livelihoods Its objective is to help users understand different aspects of livelihoods, especially factors that create problems or opportunities (DFID, 1999)

DFID's SLF includes five main components such as vulnerability context, livelihood assets, transforming and structures and processes, livelihood strategies, livelihoods outcomes which emphasize the role of policies and institutions (DFID, 1999; 2007).

Research methods

Desk research and secondary data collection

The thesis has collected, reviewed, analyzed and synthesized studies, topics and documents related to the methods of assessing CC impacts, principles and elements in the framework of sustainable livelihood development as well as climate- resilient livelihoods as a basis of constructing the methodology and research method of the thesis

The information and data directly related to Giao An commune were collected as a basis for assessing the current status of livelihoods as well as investigating the impacts of CC on the main livelihoods thereby proposing appropriate solutions

+ Data on temperature and rainfall in the period of 1989 – 2018 were measured at Nam Dinh meteorological station; Disaster data collected from 2003 – 2019 were used to analyze and assess CC in Nam Dinh in general and Giao An in particular

+ Reports on socio-economic development in the past 5 years (2015 - 2019): used to extract data related to the socio-economic development status as well as agricultural and fishery production

+ Report on results of the implementation of new rural construction of Giao An commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province in 2017: used to cite the results of the implementation of new rural construction

+ Reports on land use planning of Giao Thuy district and Giao An commune with the vision until 2020, 5-year land-use plan from 2011 to 2015: used to quote information regarding the natural conditions of the research site

+ Report on current land use status of Giao An commune in 2014: used to quote data on land in general, area of agriculture and aquaculture in particular

+ Reports on disaster response, search and rescue in the last 5 years (2015 -

2019), Report on disaster risk 2017: used to cite the impacts of the type of natural disasters and their damages as well as the plans prepared by the local authorities in recent years

+ Action plan to respond to CC in Nam Dinh province with a vision to 2020: to extract the potential impacts of CC on Nam Dinh province (including Giao An commune) through the scenario

+ Reports, researches, assessments and surveys related to the research site

The questionnaire for households was designed in the way of statistical analysis and processing through SPSS version 24.0 software (See Appendix 3.1 for details on the questionnaire) This questionnaire was tested for 05 households in the first survey in April 2019 and after that, it was revised and adjusted to suit the local situation as well as the community

Furthermore, selecting the sample (household) was based on the principles of statistical calculation with the non-probability sampling method

With the total number of households was known, Yamane's formula (1967-

1968) was used to calculate the sample size that could accurately represent the total of 3,149 households living in Giao An commune (According to the interview with Mr

Pham Anh Tuan - Deputy chief of communal police posts, September 2019) with a margin of error is 10% n= N/1+N(e) 2 Where: n = corrected sample size; N = population size; e = Margin of error

From the formula, the sample size for this study was about 100 households A quota sampling method was used The author divided 100 households equally to 22 hamlets of Giao An commune with the rate of 100/3149 was about 3.2% The number of households to be interviewed was calculated using the formula 3.2% times the actual number of households in each hamlet Therefore, hamlet 8 had the highest percentage of households who need interviewing (8.0%) because this was the most densely populated area in Giao An commune (Table 2.1)

After that, the households were selected according to the convenience sampling method with the support of local authorities as well as the help of the village heads to ensure the objectivity and diversity of respondents In particular, the surveyed group was quite diverse with representative socio-economic characteristics

Table 2.1 Number of households need interviewing by each hamlet

Number of households in reality

Number of households to interview

Number of households in reality

Number of households to interview

In terms of demographic characteristics, 67.0% of surveyed subjects were male and 33.0% were female

Regarding the age structure, men from 18 to 60 years old accounted for 67.2% and over 60 years old made up 32.8% For women, 60.6% were between the ages of

18 and 55 and 39.4% were over 55 years old The interviewed participants were mainly in the working age

Most of the surveyed people (98.0%) had main jobs and only one household was not able to work because of no arable land and no means of production Among them, 58.2% participated in other jobs called secondary occupations

The majority of households were involved in activities in the agricultural sector Of which, 70.7% considered agriculture was their main job and 24.6% considered agriculture was their second job Next, 19.2% thought fishery activities consisting of fishing and aquaculture were the main occupation while 45.6% were secondary occupations (Figure 2.1)

Figure 2.1 Primary and secondary occupations of the survey respondents

Regarding the reasons for doing many works/occupations at the same time, 53.3% of survey participants agreed with the reason to "earn more income" Next,

"other reasons" accounted for 33.3% of which the most mentioned one was

"agricultural for domestic use” Besides, 22.7% was both for the reason "income from the main job is not stable" and "have free time" Finally, "go to work for fun" has the lowest percentage of consensus (5.3%) (Table 2.2)

Table 2.2 Reasons for doing many works and jobs at the same time of the survey respondents

1 Income from main job is not stable 22.7

3 Go to work for fun 5.3

The thesis used various PRA tools to work with local authorities and people to collect qualitative and quantitative information and thereby assess (1) hazards from CC/extreme events of the research site; (2) losses and damages from CC to communities as well as agricultural and fishery activities; (3) community capacity of responding to CC The tools were as follows:

+ In-depth interview: The author exchanged and collected information from 2 groups including (1) household and (2) local authorities (See Appendix 3.2 and 3.3 for details on questions of in-depth interview) In which, there were 15 households and 24 civil services participating in an in-depth interview The reason to choose households was that through the interview process, they were open-hearted and had extensive experience in the fields of agriculture/fishery Moreover, they also understood the local activities over the years For the civil services, the information related to the commune, livelihood situations, climate hazards, vulnerability and resilience of Giao An commune were provided Interviewing with local authorities supported the verification, screening and helping the author make the most objective assessment

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Current situation of livelihood of Giao An commune

Survey results showed that Giao An commune had 10 different kinds of livelihoods (Figure 3.1) Depending on livelihood strategies, households can carry out activities individually or may be combined with other activities or in combination with other livelihoods

Figure 3.1 Different kinds of livelihoods existing in Giao An commune

In particular, agriculture and fishery were the main livelihood activities accounting for a large proportion of the local economic structure (67.0%) (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017b) Therefore, the research focuses on these livelihoods

VAC/ Large - scale farm system a Agricultural production

The agricultural livelihood activities taking place in Giao An commune included cultivation (rice farming; vegetable farming) and livestock husbandry (Figure 3.2)

- Cultivation: In 2018, the total rice cultivated area was 400.1 ha with a yield of 128.09 quintals/ha Meanwhile, the area of vegetable farming was 70.9 ha, of which the crop on the Dien Bien was 20.52 ha The total food was estimated at 6,120 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b) Agricultural products were mainly rice, honeydew melons, pear-shaped melons, watermelons, jicama and some other vegetables

- Livestock husbandry: According to the statistics as of October 1 st , 2018, the total number of cattle and poultry in the whole commune was as follows: 3,505 pigs;

33,300 poultry; 252 buffaloes, cows and goats and 3,505 other types of cattle (including dogs, cats and rabbits) The total output of live-weight meat reached 615 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b)

Figure 3.2 Agricultural livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune b Fishery production

Figure 3.3 Fishery livelihood activities took place in Giao An commune

Inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture

In Giao An commune, there were two livelihood activities in fishery production including aquaculture and fishing (or called exploitation and protection of mangrove) In which, the whole commune had 669.2 ha aquaculture area and 59 ha freshwater area The total production of fishing and aquaculture in 2018 was 2,500 tons (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018b)

Fishing grounds that Giao An’s people catch are mainly nearshore in the buffer and core zone of Xuan Thuy Nation Park Marine natural products are also diversified such as shrimp, crabs, snails, fishes, molluscs including clams, oysters, razor clams

Aquaculture in Giao An commune was divided into two types: inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture as well as freshwater aquaculture

+ Inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture

The inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture of Giao An commune developed strongly, increased rapidly both in area and production The product categories focused on high economic value species such as black tiger shrimp, whiteleg shrimp, crabs and clams Besides, there were still a few households raising other aquatic species such as oysters Some of the livelihood models in inland saline and brackish-water aquaculture applied in Giao An were extensive shrimp farming/improved extensive shrimp farming and clam farming

* Extensive shrimp farming/improved extensive shrimp farming

Since the 1980s, the wetlands of Giao Thuy district (formerly Xuan Thuy district) had been gathered into fishing and shrimp ponds Giao An was a leading commune in this movement By the mid-1990s, due to declining natural aquatic resources, people began to develop improved extensive shrimp farming This model started to form in this period of time The basic technique of the model is described as follows: Black tiger shrimp are stocked in small ponds built right in the main ponds and then fed a certain amount of industrial feed After that, when the weight reaches 35,000 shrimp/kg or the duration is about 1 week, stop feeding and completely use the food from nature In the process of raising shrimp, farmers still can exploit other aquatic species from the wild Typically, the value obtained from natural resources accounts for about 50% of total income When implementing this model, it is necessary to ensure that the mangrove forests cover an average of 30% of the total aquaculture area

The model of intensive whiteleg shrimp farming has been implemented locally in recent years It is an introduced species and is raised entirely by industrial feed The time from farming to harvesting is about 3 to 4 months To raise this species, apart fro cleaning the ponds, water is very important The water environment must be artificially treated The breeding process is likely to cause disease due to non-native species as well as poor adaptive capacity with local conditions Although the profit gained from this model is quite high, higher than that of extensive shrimp farming, there are big risks because of high input costs On the other hand, the water from the ponds is discharged directly into the natural environment without treatment This affects the water environment in general and affects other aquaculture activities in the locality

Clam farming activities in Giao An commune had 3 types including producing baby clams; raising clams and exploiting natural clams Previously, the seed source was imported from other provinces (Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ben Tre ), but from 2010 until now, the locality has almost been proactive in seed sources Most of the investment in clam farming is seeds and the feed for clam is completely natural, without adding any other feed However, the requirement in the farming process is not to dredge or cover farming ponds, but instead only use piles and nets to protect the ponds

Oyster farming was carried out in mudflats or areas outside the drainage of aquaculture ponds These activities mainly need hard substrates that oysters can lean on so the households wash off the old oyster shells, dry and return to the farming area

This is the bottom culture method

Along with the development of saline and brackish-water aquaculture, freshwater aquaculture such as softshell turtles or fishes also have many advantages Many households stocked bass and tilapia… in their ponds In some hamlets in Giao An commune, VAC integrated systems and large-scale farm models have been initially established

In recent years, activities of raising softshell turtles in Giao An commune have been developed Currently, there are 3 types of softshell turtle farming consisting of raising baby softshell turtles; raising trionyx sinensis (ba ba trơn) and raising tryonyx steinachderi (ba ba gai) For the households raised turtles for meat, the time from beginning to harvesting is about 3 years

Fish farming is usually carried out in ponds built in households The raised fishes are freshwater fishes such as bass, tilapia, drift fish, carp This is a form of culture between bass and traditional fishes, which brings higher efficiency than other models so it is widely deployed in Giao An commune

The current status of agricultural and fishery livelihoods had been assessed according to 5 livelihood assets In particular, each livelihood assets is analyzed according to the specific evaluation criteria shown in Table 3.1

Table 3.1 Livelihood assets assessed by the author

Human capital Production-related human capital and CC awareness

Climate variation in the research site

There are no meteorological stations in Giao An commune Therefore, the thesis uses the dataset of Nam Dinh meteorological station This data set was collected from 1989 to 2018 (30 years)

From analyzing the 30-year meteorological dataset (1989 - 2018) of Nam Dinh station, the average annual temperature fluctuated between 23˚ and 24˚C In 30 years, it tended to increase by about 1.0˚C (Figure 3.10) In particular, from 1989 to 1998, the temperature increased by 0.4˚C; from 1999 to 2008, decreased by 0.2˚C and the remaining period from 2009 to 2018 rose 0.6˚C Thus, the average annual temperature trend had an upward trend by about 0.3˚C over the decade

Besides, the maximum average temperature recorded was about 29˚ - 30˚C in May The minimum average temperature in January and February was about 18˚ - 19˚C (Figure 3.11)

Figure 3.10 The trendline of average annual air temperature in Nam Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018

Figure 3.11 The maximum, minimum and average temperature in many years in Nam

Dinh province in the period of 1989 – 2018

Due to the influence of the northeast monsoon as well as the elevation of the terrain, the regime of heat dissociates markedly according to the seasons The hot season usually lasts 5 months from May to September The cold season is from November to February next year (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019) b Rainfall

In the period of 1989 - 2018, the total annual rainfall of Nam Dinh Province fluctuated in the range of 1,750 - 1,800 mm and distributed evenly throughout the space of Nam Dinh province 2007 was the year with the lowest annual rainfall (1086, 2 mm) and 1994 was the year with the highest total annual rainfall (2988.9 mm) (Figure 3.12) y = 0.0351x - 46.33

Annual average air temperature (ºC)

Rainfall is unevenly distributed throughout the year and varies by season: The rainy season usually lasts from May to October and in some years, it occurs early in late April and ends in late in October Its rainfall accounts for 80.6% of the total annual rainfall Meanwhile, the dry season usually lasts from November to April next year nearly 6 months but rainfall in this season only makes up 19.4% (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019)

The three consecutive months with the highest average monthly rainfall usually happening from July to September whose the rainfall represents nearly 52% of the total annual rainfall Moreover, the three consecutive months with the lowest average monthly rainfall usually occurs in December, January and February The rainfall in these three months only accounts for nearly 5% (Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, 2019)

Figure 3.12 The trendline of total annual rainfall in Nam Dinh province in the period of

All surveyed households have confirmed that the abnormality of extreme events/natural disasters has occurred in Giao An commune in recent years In which,

"typhoon"; "tropical low pressure"; "lightning"; "heavy rain"; "extreme hot weather";

"damaging cold" and "hoarfrost" were considered to be the main extreme events in the research site (Table 3.18)

The frequency of most of these extreme events was rated as "rarely", but the intensity was "stronger" than before (Table 3.19 and Table 3.20) y = -0.8974x + 3444

Table 3.18 Assessment of survey respondents about extreme events that have occurred in

Giao An commune in recent year

Types of extreme events Valid percentage Types of extreme events Valid percentage

Saltwater intrusion 19.0 - Change in weather 16.0

Table 3.19 Assessment of survey respondents about the frequency of extreme events in

Giao An in recent year

Frequency Very often Often Sometimes Rarely Depend DNK

Frequency Very often Often Sometimes Rarely Depend DNK

Table 3.20 Assessment of survey respondents about the intensity of extreme events in Giao

Strong Moderate Weak Depend DNK

During the survey, as well as in-depth interviews with local people and authorities, extreme events were reported as follows (Table 3.21):

Table 3.21 The calendar of events about extreme events

Year Types of extreme events Damages

2003 Inundation 40% of rice area were flooded; và 100% vegetable and aquaculture area were damaged

Inundation The whole commune was flooded

People were evacuated to a safe place

Many pond banks were broken; 80% of vegetables and 40% of rice areas were flooded; 30% of poultry died

People were evacuated to a safe place

February Many areas of rice seeds and newly transplanted rice fields died

Drought lasted 3 months 80% of vegetables and rice areas were damaged

100% of the areas of vegetables, rice seeds and rice were damaged; many aquaculture households were affected

2011 Damaging cold Newly transplanted rice fields died or were poorly developed

+ 60% of pure rice which had not been harvested were damaged;

+ 100% of vegetable areas were damaged;

+ 50% of clam farming was damaged;

+ 100% of auxiliary works were damaged;

+ More than 80% of freshwater aquaculture areas were damaged;

+ 100% of corrugated iron houses were unroofed;

Typhoon No 1, 3 and 6 Vegetable and rice areas were affected

Extreme hot weather Shrimps grew slowly due to reduced natural food intake and hot weather; clams could be killed by heat during the day

Year Types of extreme events Damages

2014 Heavy rain Salt concentration in aquaculture areas felt below 10‰ leading to shrimps and clams death and growth retardation

2015 Northeast monsoon and damaging cold Impacted on production activities, especially affected on aquaculture and fishing households

Damaging cold Affected production activities

- 100% of vegetable and transplanted rice field areas as well as aquaculture ponds were damaged;

- Many cattle and poultry died

Total losses amounted to VND 26.7 billion

Tropical low pressure caused heavy rain in combination with the water from Hoa Binh hydropower reservoir to create floods in river, which greatly affected agricultural production in Giao An

2018 Typhoon No 4 combined with lightning

- Affected production activities and daily life of the people;

- Some household TVs were broken by lightning

2019 Typhoon Affected production activities and daily life of the people

3.3.2 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Giao An commune

Giao An is a commune of Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province Therefore, the thesis uses CC and SLR scenarios developed for Giao Thuy district under the RCP 4.5 scenario In particular, it includes changes in temperature and rainfall for the three periods of the 21st century, which are the beginning of the century (2016 - 2035), the middle of the century (2045 - 2065) and the end of the century (2080 - 2099) compared to the baseline period of 1986 - 2005) However, there is no mention of SLR in Giao Thuy district scenario For this reason, data related to SLR has been updated in Climate Change Response Action Plan of Nam Dinh province in the period of 2011 - 2015 and vision to 2020 a Temperature

The average annual temperature and the average temperature by seasons, as well as the annual maximum and minimum temperature of Giao Thuy district in the period of 2016 – 2099 tend to increase The average annual temperature increases by 0.6˚C at the beginning of the 21st century, about 1.6˚C in the middle of the century and 2.1˚C at the end of the century compared to the period of 1986 – 2005 Moreover, average temperature increases most in summer and increases least in winter (Table 3.22)

Table 3.22 The increase in temperature in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Timeline The beginning of the 21st century

The middle of the 21st century

The end of the 21st century

(Source: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh province, 2019) b Rainfall

The average annual rainfall of Giao Thuy district tends to increase in all periods of the 21st century However, at the beginning of the 21st century, average winter and spring rainfall tend to decrease In the middle and at the end of the 21st century, the average winter rainfall continues to reduce Meanwhile, average autumn rainfall in Giao Thuy district has the highest increase in the year in all three periods (Table 3.23)

Table 3.23 The increase in rainfall in Giao Thuy district compared to the baseline period under RCP 4.5 scenario

Timeline The beginning of the 21st century

The middle of the 21st century

The end of the 21st century

(Source: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh province, 2019) c Sea level rise

Each year, the sea level rises to about 2.15mm Along with that, the coastline has encroached on an average of 10m Sea level is forecasted to rise from 12 to 74 cm in the period of 2020 – 2100 compared with 1980 – 1999, the total flooded area of Nam Dinh province is 61,71 km 2 In which, 34.27 km 2 of Giao Thuy and 20.9 km 2 of Hai Hau as well as 6.54 km 2 of Nghia Hung are flooded (People's Committee of Nam Dinh Province, 2011) The entire flooded part of the province is a coastal area, including Giao An commune Thus, Giao An is strongly affected by CC and SLR.

Impacts of climate change on main livelihood activities of Giao An

The agricultural and fishery livelihood activities of Giao An commune were strongly dependent on natural conditions, climate and weather As a result, changing climatic and weather factors change lead to an increase in vulnerability to these livelihoods

Climate change impacts on the main livelihood activities were assessed through 5 factors such as production activities, income, daily life, health and infrastructures of households in the research site

3.3.1 Climate change impacts on production activities

According to 74.0% of the surveyed households, CC and the abnormalities of extreme events have affected their production activities a Agricultural activities

The survey results showed that rice farming of Giao An commune took place from January to October according to the lunar calendar In which, there were 2 main rice seasons such as the autumn-winter crop occurred from June to October and the spring-summer crop happened from January to May of the lunar calendar

Besides, Giao An commune had 2 vegetable seasons consisting of growing melons and jicama which went on from February to October of the lunar calendar In addition, households still grew other vegetables to serve their daily life and business activities

Moreover, livestock husbandry was carried out all year round

However, the time of autumn-winter crop, vegetable farming and livestock husbandry coincided with the duration that extreme events happened so the risk of affecting agricultural activities was quite large (Table 3.24)

Table 3.24 Seasonal calendar in agricultural and fishery activities of households in Giao An commune

(according to the lunar calendar)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.2 Spring- summer crop (vụ chiêm) x

2.1 Clam farming 3 x Renovate x Renovate x Reproduction x First x Second x Second/ x

2 This activity occurs in 3 months

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec pond pond period –

(if any) third stock (if any) havrvest all

Extensive shrimp farming 4 x Renovate pond x First stock x Second stock (if any) x x x First havrest x First havrest x x Harvest all x Renovat pond x Renovat pond x Renovat pond

Intensive whiteleg shrimp farming x Stock x

Softshell turtle farming 5 x x Reproduction period x Reproduction period x x x x x x x

4 Depending on the households, shrimp can stock one times or many times

5 As temperatures are warmer, softshell turtles begin to breed in February and March When the temperature is cold, they hibernate Before hibernating, medication should be provided to

In general, according to the evaluation of the surveyed households, the extreme events that affected the rice cultivation activities were "typhoon", "tropical low pressure",

"heavy rain", "inundation", “extreme hot weather", "damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and

"other" which were mentioned as the changes in climate and weather factors

In particular, "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "inundation",

"damaging cold" and "hoarfrost" were evaluated to reduce the productivity of rice and cause dead plants, worse could lead to crop failures Besides, the "extreme hot weather" also made rice plants grow slowly (70.0%) (Table 3.25)

"Extreme hot weather", "damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and "other" which were mentioned as the changes in climate and weather factors were considered to impact vegetable farming of Giao An commune They not only reduced crop production but also caused vegetable death (Table 3.26)

Surveyed households assessed that "typhoons", "extreme hot weather",

"damaging cold", "hoarfrost" and "other" which were the changes in climate and weather factors affected livestock husbandry activities

42.2% of surveyed households said that typhoons caused damage to cages and livestock equipment while 22.2% thought that they caused the dead loss (mất trắng)

Moreover, extreme hot weather affected the growth and development of domestic animals (62.2%) and made more epidemics (33.3%) as well as created anorexia in them (28.9%) Worse, 53.3% of households had opinions that the reason why their livestock died was because of rising temperatures and “extreme hot weather”

Similarly, “hoarfrost” was considered to be one of the causes of the slow growth of livestock (33.3%), an increase in epidemics (26.7%) and livestock death (28.9%) (Table 3.27)

Table 3.25 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on rice farming

The soil was eroded and degraded

Table 3.26 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on vegetable farming

The soil was eroded and degraded

Table 3.27 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on livestock husbandry

Fishery activities in Giao An commune include 2 activities which are fishing and aquaculture In particular, fishing activities were carried out monthly depending on the health status, weather and tide calendar For aquaculture activities, the production time coincided with the time of different types of extreme events

Therefore, the risk of aquaculture households was quite large without careful preparation (Table 3.24)

- Fishing: Surveyed households emphasized that weather and climate were reasons for the decline in fishing production Not only that, if "typhoon", "tropical low pressure",

"heavy rain", "extreme hot weather" or "damaging cold" occurred, households would temporarily also stop production activities

The extreme events were assessed to affect aquaculture activities in Giao An commune comprising "typhoon", "tropical low pressure", "heavy rain", "saltwater intrusion", "extreme hot weather", "damaging cold”, "hoarfrost" and "other” which were the changes in climate and weather Disasters that reduced the productivity of aquaculture listed by survey respondents include typhoon (39.3%), tropical low pressure (17.9%) and heavy rain (32.1%) The changing water environment was due to typhoon (7.2%), heavy rain (32.1%) and saltwater intrusion (39.3%) Typhoon (14.3%), tropical low pressure (7.2%), saltwater intrusion (21.4%), damaging cold (39.3%) and hoarfrost (39.3%) resulted in the dead loss Moreover, extreme hot weather (42.9%), damaging cold (32.1%) and hoarfrost (14.3%) were the cause of the death of aquatic species (Table 3.28)

Table 3.28 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on aquaculture

3.3.2 Climate change impacts on income

Climate change and the irregularities of extreme weather events have influenced the income of 49.0% of surveyed households In particular, "extreme hot weather" great affected their income with the highest percentage of 64.6% Other being the changes in climate and weather were assessed as one of the factors that had a major impact on household income (100.0%) (Table 3.29)

Table 3.29 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on family income

Level of impact Major impact

3.3.3 Climate change impacts on daily life

37.0% of the surveyed households thought that CC and the irregularity of extreme events had greatly effects on their daily life, especially “extreme hot weather”

(60.0%) and “lightning” (18.3%) In Giao An and several neighboring communes, there have been many deaths from lightning Therefore, people are quite afraid to go to the street when lightning occurs and they will unplug all power outlets to avoid electric shock or fire of household appliances Other mentioned by households were the changes in climate and weather (Table 3.30)

Table 3.30 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on daily life

Types of extreme events Level of impact

Types of extreme events Level of impact

3.3.4 Climate change impacts on health

63.0% of the surveyed households said that climate change and the abnormality of extreme events had major significant impacts on their health status When health was not guaranteed, livelihood activities were also affected "Extreme hot weather" was a phenomenon that influenced the health of 73.8% of households (Table 3.31)

Diseases mentioned by respondents included flu, illness and diseases related to ears, nose, throat…

Table 3.31 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on health

Level of impact Major impact

3.3.5 Climate change impacts on infrastructures

According to the survey results, climate change and the abnormality of extreme events also affected infrastructures (10.1%) In particular, typhoon (50.0%), lightning (55.6%) and inundation (50.0%) were extreme events that had effects on infrastructure with a rate of over 50.0% The remaining such as extreme hot weather, hoarfrost and damaging cold had a lower impact rate of 11.1% to 20.0% (Table 3.32)

Table 3.32 Assessment of the extreme events and climate change impacts on infrastructures

Level of impact Major impact Moderate impact

It can be seen that CC and the irregularity of extreme events have a great impact on productivity and seasons such as changing crop structure and seed structure as well as increasing the risk of spreading pests on crops, epidemics in cattle and poultry The manifestations of CC in the coming time are forecasted, which will have a stronger impact on the livelihood activities of the people here The impacts of CC on Giao An people's livelihoods are summarized in Table 3.33 as follows:

Table 3.33 Summary of the impacts of extreme events by climate change on the livelihood of people in Giao An commune

- Arable land becomes dry and degraded

- Water resources for plants are scarce

- Worker's health is affected (by heatstroke)

- Anorexia (Loss of appetite) in pets;

- Extreme hot weather can cause pets to die (due to heatstroke);

- Worker's health is affected (by heatstroke)

- The temperature of water supply for aquaculture will increase, which causes aquaculture species to die;

- Worker's health is affected (by heatstroke)

Heavy rains are concentrated during the rainy season (Inundation)

- Breeding facilities are destroyed and degraded;

- Livestock may die leading to a loss in livestock

- Dykes and embankments of aquaculture ponds are destroyed or degraded;

- The water environment is changed;

Livestock may die The temperature of water supply for aquaculture is cold, which causes aquaculture species to die

Resilience to climate change of Giao An commune

Resilience is the ability of a system to withstand impacts and disturbances without breaking down and transforming into another state of change A resilient system can absorb disturbances, impacts or adjust, then reorganize and retain its basic structure and operation

Thus, the resilience to CC of Giao An commune is the ability of the commune to withstand the direct or indirect impacts caused by CC After such impacts, the locality may change or adjust, overcome losses and continue to develop

Assessing the resilience to CC of Giao An commune was considered through two main subjects including (1) households (their response plans); (2) local authorities (infrastructures for disaster prevention and preparedness as well as natural disaster response, search and rescue plans)

3.4.1 Resilience to climate change of households in Giao An commune

In response to CC as well as extreme events, 99.0% of households had actively approached relevant information through media (TV, newspaper, internet, ) (96.0%);

Department of flood and storm control/commune and hamlet officials (68.0%) and Border posts (3.1%)

In addition, most of the surveyed households (81.0%) had prepared before the disaster The activity most implemented was reinforcing the house (75.0%) Besides, households also prepared necessary items such as bamboo, sandbags (24.0%) to support local authorities as materials to prevent floods and typhoons However, 19.0% of people did not have any prepared plans because they lived in permanent houses and they thoughts people could not resist nature, extreme events and climate (Table 3.34)

Table 3.34 Preparations of households participating in the survey before the disaster occurs

Preparation Valid percentage Preparation Valid percentage

Reinforce the house 75.0 Move pets to a safe shelter 13.0 Find a safe shelter in advance 23.0 Remodel animal cages

Reserve food and water 19.0 Early harvest 5.0

Move furniture to a high place 15.0 Prepare necessary items such as bamboo, sandbag 24.0 46.0% of the surveyed households were provided with knowledge about mitigation and response to natural disasters and extreme events Of which, 14.9% received knowledge to identify types of natural disasters and extreme events in the locality; 82.6% were equipped with the knowledge of contingency plans necessary such as four on-the-spot motto; and 6.3% were provided with knowledge about means and supplies that need to be prepared to prevent/respond to disasters This knowledge had been updated annually by People's Committee of Giao An commune and exchanged through community meetings as well as distributed in the local media

Moreover, 21.0% of the survey participants or their family members participated in the natural disaster control and rescue rehearsal of Giao An commune

Now, they have become one of the members of commune disaster prevention forces

Regarding the recommendations of households to minimize risks of CC and extreme events, 29.0% of households agreed with actively sharing information and experiences in the locality and strengthening communication on prevention of natural disaster risks in production activities; 27.0% concurred with strengthening early warning system; increasing local infrastructure investment and improving the irrigation transport system accounted for 21.0%; enhancing environmental protection made up with 21.0% of the consensus The last two recommendations which occupied 20.0% and 17.0% of the consensus respectively were strengthening natural resource management and strengthening support through social protection and risk management policies (Table 3.35)

Table 3.35 Recommendations of the households participating in the survey to reduce the risk of extreme events in production activities

Increase support through social protection and risk management policies 17.0

Actively share information and experiences in the locality and the strengthen communication on prevention of natural disaster risks in production activities

Increase local infrastructure investment and improve the irrigation transport system 26.0

=> People in Giao An commune had been more active in receiving information related to CC as well as extreme events Households had solidarity with local authorities with organizations and unions to cope with the adverse impacts of CC as well as complicated evolution of nature Moreover, they had basic preparations to protect their properties such as houses, livestock,… However, there were fewer plans for production activities in agriculture and fishery Besides, the percentage of households that were disseminated knowledge was not high as well as the percentage of people who had not joined in natural disaster control and rescue rehearsal of the locality was quite low Therefore, the resilience to CC of households in Giao An commune was assessed at an average level

3.4.2 Resilience to climate change of local authorities a Infrastructure

The whole commune had 3.3 km of dykes outside the central dyke that were solidified The quality of the dyke was good enough to withstand typhoons above level 12 Besides, the protective stone embankment was built to help the dyke system to ensure good quality Moreover, the drain had no water leakage All helps to drain water quickly when extreme events occur in the locality However, the drainage system in the hamlet 12 had been degraded and had not been repaired, which made the difficulties for inspection and rescue if necessary In addition, the encroachment of rivers and streams to raise ducks and fishes also causes congestion affecting the river basin (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2018c) b Disaster response, search and rescue

* Protection of natural disaster prevention and control works

Regularly inspect, prevent and completely handle violations of the law on dykes, ordinances on exploitation and protection of irrigation works, especially dealing with illegal constructions in dyke protection corridors and flood drainage corridors, encroaching on the drainage systems Prohibit overloaded vehicles to go on the dyke

Promptly detect incidents for reporting to superior authorities for handling; Implement well the plan of planting and protecting protective mangroves and trees; Regularly check and timely renovate public works, such as bridges, drainage systems, roads serving migration and shelters for people, such as schools, health stations and Headquarters of the Commune People's Committee, cultural houses in each hamlet

* Plans and locations for evacuation, protection of people, properties and production

When there are warnings about typhoons and floods, each hamlet actively organizes the evacuation of people according to the prepared plan, especially paying attention to activities that must be carried out at least 12 hours before the disaster strikes (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

* Ensuring security and social order, traffic, contact information during the executive command

In order to protect people's property and ensure security and social order in the commune, the commune police built a 24-hour duty assignment plan for the hamlets (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

During and after the disaster, ensuring the main roads in the commune and the traffic must be smooth Besides, the militia forces have a specific assignment plan for the roads to quickly remove broken and fallen trees Commune Culture and Information Officials coordinate with communal cultural post offices in inspecting information lines and radio systems, ensuring quick restoration of warning and communication systems (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

* Coordinating directing, commanding disaster prevention, response and search and rescue

When there is a warning about a natural disaster, the members of Giao An’s Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, Search and Rescue immediately return to the assigned hamlets, coordinate with the hamlets to direct the response activities and search and rescue When an emergency occurs, it is necessary to urgently notify to the Committee (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

Collaborate with the Police, Military Command, the Youth of Ho Chi Minh Communist Youth Union and the Farmer's Association to quickly respond to incidents (People's Committee of Giao An commune, 2017c)

- Disaster response plans for some specific natural disasters

* For typhoons and tropical low pressures

Solutions for developing sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods

Some general principles and requirements for proposing solutions to develop sustainable and climate-resilient livelihoods for people in Giao An commune include:

- Enhancing the capacity of livelihood assets consistent with household capacity conditions and local conditions;

- Ensuring benefits for local people and local authorities;

- Increasing the adaptability of livelihoods to one or more manifestations of CC; reducing household vulnerability in the context of natural disasters/extreme events;

- Ensuring simultaneous economic, social and environmental benefits, contributing to biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem services

- Contributing to raising awareness and capacity of the community;

- Promoting the active role of community and mobilizing the participation of many stakeholders;

- Being suitable with local policies as well as the wishes of people

Based on the research results as well as some proposed principles, the main groups of solutions were proposed a Group of general solutions based on livelihood assets

* Solutions to support and enhance human capital

Firstly, organizing training courses, short-term and long-term courses depending on the characteristics of the livelihoods to equip necessary knowledge and skills in production activities in the context of CC

- Expectations: Enhancing knowledge and skills related to production activities such as applying science and technology as well as accessing information and markets in the context of CC; reducing risks of extreme events and CC in production activities

- How to do: People's Committee of Giao An commune, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Farmer’s Association and Cooperatives need to identify local training needs (number of participants; content, form of training; time; location; wishes as well as aspirations of the people) through individual household surveys Next, People's Committee of Nam Dinh province, Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh province as well as Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Nam Dinh province combined with Giao Thuy Division of Agriculture and Rural Development, People's Committee of Giao An commune, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Farmer's Association and Cooperatives jointly develop training programs appropriate to the local situation as well as the people Experts of the provincial People's Committees, departments, agencies, districts and communes directly train and implement the practice Besides, they monitor the results to solve the difficulties and problems of people in the implementation process

Secondly, organizing community events combined with contests related to CC

- Expectations: Creating community meetings to raise awareness about CC, negative impacts of CC as well as solutions to adapt to CC that households can use; minimizing the vulnerability to CC; increasing awareness of environmental protection and efficient use of natural resources Moreover, the contests are to mobilize the participation of all people as well as to create two-way interaction between households with each other or between households and local authorities Besides, to promote the image of the community to actively participate in climate-resilient activities

- How to do: These community meetings can be organized at mass organizations such as Women's Union, Farmer's Union Or they can be divided into hamlets The Cultural and Information Department of Giao An commune and the Commune People's Committee study the organization of these events

* Solutions to support and enhance social capital

Firstly, creating links with farming ponds, garment factories, factories, companies, businesses as well as recruiters and building a system of free recruitment website (both full-time and part-time jobs) for the locals

- Expectation: Creating supplementary livelihoods for households, diversifying income sources, strengthening the adaptive capacity of household livelihoods against

CC impacts; creating opportunities and making the most of local resources; creating linkages between local authorities and farming ponds, garment factories, factories, companies, businesses and recruiters

- How to do it: Farming ponds, garment factories, enterprises, companies and recruiters actively contact the local authorities about the job position It is possible to take full advantage of Giao An Commune People’s Committee website and create a local recruitment section For example, a garment factory looking for a few people to embroidered floral patterns on the ao dai needs to contact local authorities After that, the local authorities will post the recruitment information Applications can be submitted directly via that website as well as be submitted directly at the employer

Secondly, the local authorities actively create linkages between traders, agricultural companies and production households

- Expectations: increasing income for households, supporting market search, stabilizing output for products, avoiding price squeeze and reducing disaster risks and

- How to do: Local authorities, People's Committee of Giao Thuy district help to build this linkage

Thirdly, the authorities work with local people to develop effective production teams/groups

- Expectations: creating linkages between producers and between households and production teams/groups, increasing incomes and improving climate resilience through mutual assistance

- How to do it: Local authorities and people build production teams/groups For example, establishing an aquaculture farming group with the task of equipping necessary knowledge and skills in aquaculture through exchanging, sharing experiences as well as supporting and helping each other in finance, machinery or equipment Or establishing a rice-vegetable cooperation group for propaganda, mobilizing people to develop farming activities as well as exchanging relevant knowledge and techniques At the same time, taking advantage of available labor and creating jobs for local people

* Solutions to support and enhance natural capital

Firstly, strengthening the management of natural resources and environmental protection, especially the need to improve the effectiveness of community-based natural resources management

- Expectations: Sustainable and effective use of natural resources, no harm to the environment, minimizing and preventing negative impacts from CC and extreme events; engaging and enhancing the role of the community

- How to do: Local authorities, mass organizations and XTNP formulate plans to strengthen natural resources management and improve the effectiveness of community-based management

Secondly, studying and developing a strategy for developing community-based ecotourism for communes in the buffer zone of XTNP

- Expectations: encouraging the participation of the parties, diversifying sources of income for people, solving people's employment problems and raising awareness about environmental protection, coping with CC and developing sustainable livelihoods in harmony with the goal of nature conservation with economic development

- How to do: The Government, local authorities of communes in buffer zone, XTNP together with Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism of Nam Dinh province and Division of Culture and Information of Giao Thuy district need to study and assess the local available conditions to develop community-based ecotourism activities for the buffer zone communes, then identify strengths for development, develop and pilot models in Giao An commune In addition, it is necessary to improve the quality of management, enhance propaganda and change awareness for officials, local people and tourists about environmental protection through leaflets on environment, CC Finally, investing in assisting people to change their livelihoods most effectively is needed

* Solutions to support and increase physical capital

Firstly, continuing investing and building to improve the quality of infrastructure and public works in the context of CC

- Expectations: Improving the quality of infrastructure and public works while minimizing the impacts and risks caused by CC

- How to do: Continuing to strengthen management and investment in maintenance of Dien Bien dyke in hamlet 17; Repairing the drainage system in hamlet

22 to protect residents and production; Deploying dismantling, cleaning and handling activities of individuals and organizations that obstruct irrigation systems for convenient drainage; Increasing investment in irrigation systems taking into account the impact of CC; Deploying activities of cutting down branches and trees which are unsafe for architectural works and electrical networks, transmission lines as well as for people; Repairing and maintaining the loudspeaker system to ensure smooth communication when natural disasters occur

Secondly, investing, building and upgrading early warning systems in Giao An commune

- Expectations: improving capacity to prevent and cope with CC and disaster risks; reducing the impacts of CC on people and at the same time creating the initiative in the preparedness plan to respond

- How to do: Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Nam Dinh Province, Division of Natural Resources and Environment of Giao Thuy district, together with local authorities and related experts coordinate with local people to identify appropriate locations to build the network of disaster monitoring and warning system

* Solutions to support and enhance financial capital

Firstly, enhancing access to finance more easily

- Expectations: Developing production activities of local people

- How to do: Local authorities, banks, non-bank financial institutions and mass organizations need to assess the people's borrowing needs, their aspirations and their expectations to have appropriate support policies

Secondly, research on the implementation of agricultural insurance and natural disaster insurance

- Expectations: Limiting risks related to production activities, ensuring stability income for people to increase production, improving their capacity to cope with weather, climate and natural disasters

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

How do you assess your current level of confidence in your occupational skills? a Main occupation Very

Observing and researching from TV, newspapers…

For households engaged in agriculture and fishery, most had production experience for over 20 years (Table 3.4) Therefore, the majority of respondents felt

"fairly confident" and "very confident" in their occupational skills Only a small part assessed the level of “somewhat confident” and “not confident” in the field of agriculture as well as fishery because they thought these activities still depended heavily on other factors such as environment, climate/weather and extreme events (Table 3.5)

Table 3.4 Seniority in agricultural and fishery production activities of surveyed subjects

Years of experience Less than

Table 3.5 Survey participants self-assessed the level of confidence in their occupational skills

Fairly

In addition to occupational skills, households also mentioned other skills needed to develop production activities, especially the application of science and technology, skills for machinery or equipment repair or information access and market access In fact, the conditions for applying technological advances to production were limited as well as the economic development of households were still difficult due to the lack of knowledge about market access and information access Therefore, survey participants also wished to have discussions or training courses on this issue

79.0% of the respondents had heard about the term “climate change” while 21.0% had not The information channels they received were mainly programs on "TV, radio" (71.3%) and via other sources (27.9%) such as local loudspeakers; conversations from people around and their observations and feelings (Table 3.6)

Climate change was defined by the survey respondents in many different ways, depending on its cause or the relationship between it and weather All subjects recorded unusual phenomena of weather as well as natural disasters/extreme events However, some people were still mistakenly thinking that CC was environmental pollution such as air pollution (Table 3.7) Meanwhile, 12.7% still did not know what CC was

Table 3.6 Information channels on climate change that respondents received by

Table 3.7 The definition of climate change was given by the survey participants

Definition of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system that persists for several decades or longer - usually at least 30 years

25.3 Climate change makes the weather hotter, more unusual 22.8 Climate change causes sea level rise leading to saline intrusion 6.3

Definition of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change makes natural disasters more unusual such as typhoons, floods,… 12.7

Regarding the cause of CC, "entirely by people" was the chosen option with the highest rate of 40.0% The second was “mainly due to human” accounting for 26.2% (Table 3.8)

Table 3.8 The causes of climate change were identified by the survey participants

(Ratio: %) Causes of climate change Valid percentage

Climate change is completely caused by nature 8.8

Climate change is entirely by human 40.0

Climate change is caused by both nature and human 15.0

Climate change is mainly due to human 26.2

Climate change is mainly due to nature 3.8

=> Therefore, it can be seen that people participating in the survey had many years of experience in production activities, so they were quite confident in their skills This was one of the advantages to develop people's livelihood However, there were still some problems in human capital such as educational level was low; the percentage of untrained people was still quite high so production activities were based on their own feelings and experiences; limitations on the application of technical advances as well as access to information and market access Besides, most people did not fully understand the definition as well as the causes of CC These were also disadvantages for livelihood development and potential risks when affected by extreme events or other external contexts b Social capital

In agricultural production, 67.9% had one to a few members (the highest is 3 people) in the family working with the survey respondents In particular, the participants were mainly wives (68.8%), husbands (23.0%), children (6.6%) and mothers (1.6%)

In fishing, 36.4% had a family member working together In particular, the participants were mostly wives (75.0%) and husbands (25.0%) of them

In aquaculture, 73.5% had one or several members (the highest is 3 people) in the family participating in the work They were wives (57.2%), husbands (21.4%) and children (21.4%)

Surveyed households received support from relatives, friends and neighbors

For example, in agricultural production, some households lent paddy fields for free, exchanged labor during the transplanting stage, or loaned rice milling machines Or in case of lack of food, households can borrow each other In fishery activities, households also shared experiences in fishing, aquaculture as well as helped each other in trouble or difficulties

- Relationship of households to loan clubs

Almost survey respondents (60.0%) joined in loan clubs (in other words, phường, hội) Especially aquaculture households, they participated in many loan clubs This is how people mobilize capital quickly as well as save money

The form of playing loan clubs is as follows: The person in charge of collecting all the assets is called "leader" and the participants are often acquaintances to limit the risk of losing money The average loan club has about 20 - 30 players Members can agree to contribute to the loan club a valuable asset such as money, gold and cement bag Then, participants are free to comment on the number of assets to contribute, the period of contribution and the period of opening to get assets For example, there are

10 players in a golden loan club, there will be 3 times a year The first time, each person contributes 1 mace of gold, A bring all away The second time, A has to pays 1.2 maces of gold for the club (0.2 mace of gold is the interest that A has to pay)

Continuing such a rotation, the next person will collect all the golds and then pay the same as 1.2 maces of gold However, there are many potential risks if the player or leader has taken all the money and fled

- The relationship between households and organizations and unions related to production activities

According to households participating in the agricultural sector, Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board played a "very important" (23.8%) and

"important" (35.7%) role to their production activities (Table 3.9) Because Giao An is an agricultural commune, almost all agricultural activities are directed and guided by this organization such as seeding, soaking, tending and protecting rice seeds; transplanting, managing diseases

Also, the cooperative was assessed at an "important" level to the production activities of local people (44.0%) (Table 3.9) because this is a unit in combination with Xuan Thuy One-Member Limited Liability Company for Irrigation to regulate irrigation water in Giao An commune Not only that, this cooperative provided rice varieties However, there was still a significant proportion (41.7%) that cooperatives played "unimportant" role because the cooperative was like a service provider; there was a lack of qualified people as well as the irrigation regulation was not good

Moreover, surveyed people thought that the price of the rice varieties supplied by the cooperative was high leading to be difficult to compete with those doing agricultural services

Table 3.9 Surveyed households self-assessed the importance level of the Commune Agricultural Production Steering Board, Cooperative, Farmer's Association to their production activities

Importance level Very important Important Moderatly important

To develop agricultural production, farmer's association cooperated with Vietnam Bank for Social Policies with transaction offices at Giao Thuy district to create conditions for people to borrow money Besides, farmers participating in the association also shared experiences, information and techniques in agriculture association as having an "important" level in their production However, 42.9% had the opposite view that farmer’s association had not fully played its role; the current activities of the association were few and not exciting (Table 3.9)

In fishing activities, organizations and unions were assessed from "very important" (40.0%) to "important" (60.0%) referred to as the Self-governing team and the Border Post The team was founded in 2015 with the leader, Mr Pham Van Bong (head of the hamlet 18) As of 2019, 17 ships and boats were operating near the shore participating in this group, including some of the ships in Giao Thien commune Each month, the team holds a meeting The purpose of the team is to support each other in production and rescue at sea when the boats are down Not only that, the team is entrusted by the Border Guard to manage the mangrove forests Every day, in addition to fishing, the team members will patrol to detect the acts of harming the environment

From there, notify the forest rangers, the local police, border posts and local authorities to handle the behavior Moreover, the group also has a form of playing loan clubs Each member contributes VND 2 million/times/month The person who takes all money must pay the initial amount plus the interest rate of 0.5%/ month This fund is mainly to support the team members if they need to repair ships or equip new fishing grounds

8 Many epidemics 8 8 Many diseases 8 9 Quality doesn’t meet standards 9 9 Quality doesn’t meet standards 9 10 Lack of markets 10 10 Lack of markets 10 11 Quantity is less 11 11 Quantity is less 11 12 Cheap price 12 12 Cheap price 12 13 Other (Specify):… … 13 13 Environmental pollution 13 b Livestock husbandry 1 Price of material inputs is high 1 14 Other (Specify): …

6 Quality doesn’t meet standards 6 8 Many epidemics 8 7 Quantity is less 7 9 Quality doesn’t meet standards 9 8 Cheap price 8 10 Lack of markets 10 9 Other (Specify): …