CHfNH TRI - AN NINH TH^ GI61 Pho b i l n vu khf hat nhan tCf goc nhin cua chu nghTa k i l n tao NGHIEM TUAN HCING* Trong ly thuyit quan hi quoc le, viec sa hiru vU hat nhdn (VKHN) dugc cdc hgc gid phdn tich theo nhieu cdch tiip cdn khdc Niu nhu chu nghia hiin thuc coi Id bieu tugng cho tham vgng cita nhd nuac di tu bdo vi minh, phdn irng v&i nhitng bdt on ve an ninh vd tham vgng tu vi mpt cdch dpc lap, VKHN xudt phdt lit lgi ich quoc gia ciing nhitng sii-c ep tir he thong quoc te thi chu nghta kiin Igo (CNKT) lgi dua goc nhin khdc CNKT coi nhirng quyel dinh hgi nhdn xudt phdi tit nhdn thitc ciia giai linh hoa (elite), co chuc ndng mang tinh bieu lugng quan trgng, vira dinh hinh, vira phdn dnh bdn sdc cua nha nuac Theo goc nhin ndy, hdnh vi cua nhd nuac khong chi bi tdc dpng tir nhitng linh todn ve lgi ich cita cdc nhd ldnh dgo quoc gia ma bi dinh huang bai giai linh hoa, bai nhitng nguyen ldc vd niem lin chung cua cdc nhd ldnh dgo ve nhitng hdnh dpng dugc coi Id hap le vd thich ddng Irong quan hi quoc te Tu khoa: VU hgt nhdn, chit nghfa kien igo, quan he quoc te I Nhihig lu^n diem kien tao ve van de bien vu hat nhan CNKT cho rdng vai tro cua giai linh hoa la rdt quan trgng hogch dinh chinh sdch cua nha nuac noi chung Cac nha xa hpi hgc vd khoa hgc chinh tri da nghien cuu ve sy ndi len vd tdm anh hudng cua cdc ca nhdn Irong nhiing ITnh vye rieng biet, nhdn manh vao tam quan trgng cua vai frd, hanh dpng va nghi Ihftc Cdc ca nhan va td chuc cd the cd nhieu lgi ich nhung nhimg Igi ich dd bi dinh hlnh bdi vai frd xd hdi cua chu the cd nhdn, dugc thuc hien bdi - Vifn Kinh te vk Chfnh trj the gidi nhirng sd thich va hdnh dpng hay nhiing quydt dinh CO ly tri va dugc gdn vdi mdi trudng xa hpi md thuc day nhung cau tnic va hanh vi dung ddn hay ly, ddng ihdi xem nhirng ngudi khdc la phi ly tri Trong Irudng hgp kien tao chuang trinh hat nhan cung vay, viec xem xet vai frd cua gidi linh hoa cung cyc ky quan trgng Hon nfta, ban sac hay quy chuan qudc gia hodc bat eft quylt dinh nao cung bi dnh hudng bdi tam ly cua gidi linh hoa vd cdc nha lanh dao Cdm xuc vd ldm ly cung nhu nidm lin thudng dugc kien tao mang tinh xa hpi vd tdn lai frong nhimg mdi quan he xa hpi; chung chu ydu ton tai gifta NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHfNH TRj THt GICTI S6 10(234) 2015- 19 Phd bidn vu hat nhan tir goc nhin nhftng gid tri, niem tin va khat vgng dugc ca xa hpi chia se va kel ndi Cam xuc "thudng dugc kien lao de phye vu cac chuc ndng vdn hda xd hpi dd ngdn can nhiing thai dp vd hanh vi dang che frach, de tri va tan ihdnh nhiing gia fri vdn hda" Cdm xuc tac dpng manh den nhan thftc ciia chft the ve muc dich va kha ndng cua "ngudi khac" ddng thdi dinh hudng xem lieu quan he gifta "ta" vdi "hg" nen gdn hay xa Mdi lidn he gifta nhdn thftc vd cdm xuc cua chu the fren trudng qudc te dugc Robert Jervis xac djnh nhu sau: "Thdng thudng, khdng thi giai thich nhung quyet dinh vd chinh sdch quan frgng ma khdng tinh den niem tin va sy ky vgng ve the gidi cua nhd hoach dinh chinh sdch eftng vdi hinh dung cua hg v l ngudi khdc Dilu ndi rang, nhiing nhdn thuc la mpt phan cua nguyen nhdn dan den hdnh vi cd lien quan va cac cdp dp phan tich khdc khdng the lap tuc ndi chung chung ta chung se nhu the nao Va thdm chi neu chung ta thdy dd d cung dia vi, cu xu cung mdt kidu cdch, se rdl cd Igi de phan tich qud frinh hoach dinh chinh sdch cd nhifrig khac biet giua quan niem cfta nhd hoach dinh va thyc tien"'^ Nhu vdy, cd Ihl ndi rdng quan diem kien tao xa hpi ve cara xuc rat thich hgp de gidi Ihich nhiing khac biet cua cdc nen vdn hda frong vai trd ma cara xuc thyc Ihi ddi vdi chinh sach hat nhdn cua cdc nudc Dua vdo quan diim vi vai tro ciia giai tinh hoa, hgc gid Peter Lavoy dgt cdu hoi vi vai tro, tdm ly ciia giai linh hoa vd phdt triin cdch tiep can md ong ggi Id nguai kiin tgo huyin thogi (myth-maker) nhu cdu trd lai cho vdn de biin hgt nhdn Muc dich cua each tiep can la nhdra giai ihich tai VKHN dugc bidn radc cho nhimg van de bat dn vay quanh va Ihdm hga cd the xay den Lavoy cho rdng frong mpt qudc gia, gidi linh hoa, nhung ngudi mudn ' Crawford, Neta C (2000): Tlie Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotions and Emotional Relationships, International Security, No 24, Vol 4, p 129 ^ Jervis, Robert (1976): Perception and Misperception in International Politics Princeton, Princeton University Press, p 28-29 20- Nghiem Tudn Hung phdi triin VKHN vi van dl an ninh, quyin luc hay bilu tugng, chinh la ngudi kiln tao huyin thoai Khdi niem "huyen thoai hat nhan" (nuclear myth) la rdt quan frgng dft mang tinh huyin thoai hon la thuc tl^ Cdch tilp can khd hiiu dyng, cd the giai thich vai frd ciia nhung cd nhan, tinh hoa cd anh hudng frong qud frinh xay dyng chuang frinh hat nhan Chdng han, Lavoy cho rdng vai trd cua Uy ban Hat nhan An Dp {Indian Atomic Energy Commission) vd dac bidt la Chu tich Homi Bhabha qua trinh kien tao huyen tho?i hat nhdn cua An Dp la khdng the phu nhan'* Trong tmdng hgp cua nudc Phap, vide phdt frien cac chuong Irinh hat nhan cung phan anh rdl rd vai frd va quan niem cfta gidi chuc ldnh dao nudc - nhiing ngudi kien lao huyen thoai Niem tin manh me cfta gidi chftc Phap cho rdng sue manh va VKHN gan lien vdi vi the cua dat nudc tren trudng qudc te dugc neu frong bdn Ke hoach ndm ma nudc Phdp dua vdi muc tieu "dam bao vdng 10 ndm nua nudc Phdp se trd Ihanh mpi nudc quan trgng" Ddi vdi cyu tdng thdng Charles de Gaulle, bom hat nhan la rapt bilu tugng rd rang cho sy dpc lap cua nudc Phdp vd la cdi can thiet de nudc Phdp liep lyc dugc thfta nhan la mdt cudng qudc mat chinh hg va ngudi khdc vilt rdng: "Mdt nudc Phdp rad khdng cd Irach nhidm ddi vdi the gidi se la khdng xftng dang vdi ban than, dac biet la mdt ngudi Phdp Dd chinh la ly nudc Phdp phdn ddi NATO [ ] Dd la ly nudc Phap mudn chung td minh vdi vu frang hat nhan Chi cd each thi nin qudc phdng va chinh sach ddi ngoai cua chiing ta mdi ddc Idp"^ ^ Lavoy, Peter R (1993): Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation, Security Studies, Vol 2, Spring/Summer, p 200 * Lavoy, Peter R (1993): da ddn, p 202 ^ Goldschmidt, Tlie Atomic Complex, p 126 * Tham khao them Charles de Gaulle (1971): Memoirs of Hope: Renewal and Endeavor, Simon and Schuster, New York, p.209 Sau nam 1958, cupe khiing hoang a Angeria da t^c dong Ion den n6i dm Snh hat nhSn ciia Charles de Gaulle vdi tham vong \k sir dpc ISp v4 vT dai - NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR) TH^ GICTI S6 10(234) 2015 Nghiem Tudn Hiing Kho hat nhan cua nudc Phdp trudc hit dugc coi cd chftc ndng mang tinh bieu tuang Nhftng tuyen bd cua de Gaulle rdng vu hat nhan ciia nudc Phap cd kha nang friln khai loan cdu vd nhdm vao ragi hudng dugc nhin nhan khdng phai la san phdm cua nhihig de dga vl an ninh den tft mgi hudng ma nhu chinh sdch kien tri vi su dpc lap va vT dai cua nudc Phap Tuong tu nhu vdy, hgc thuyet chien lugc cua nudc Phap ve mdt sy ngdn chan luang ftng ddnh cho Lien Xd Irong Ihdi ky chidn tranh Lanh cung khdng cd nhieu gid frj thyc su Ndi each khac Lien Xd khdng phai la muc tieu md kho hat nhan cua nudc Phap hudng tdi Cudi cung, ngudi Phdp mien cudng dimg thu hat nhdn tft giua nhftng ndm 1990, didu dd khdng chi dugc coi nhu nhiing lo ngai ve hien dai hda quan sy vd an toan hat nhan md cdn bdi nhung vy thu dugc Paris coi nhu la bieu tudng cua ban sdc va vi the cudng qudc cfta nudc Phdp Nhin nhdn nhiing truang hap nghien citu a tren, chung ta co the thdy vai Ird ve niem lin cita tinh hoa qud trinh kien tgo chuang trinh hgt nhdn, nhung nhu vdy Id chua du Hgc gid Jacques Hymans phdn biet giira cdc nhd ddn loc chit nghia vai nhitng nguai co dia vi thdp han Theo do, nhd dan tpc chii nghTa ddi lap chdc chan se the hidn thai dp tich cyc ddi vdi vide sd hiiu hal nhan: "Cdc nha dan tpc chu nghTa ddi lap thay dat nudc canh tranh vdi cdc ddi thu lft ben ngoai cung nhu phdi ngang bdng hoac khdng mudn ndi la vugt trpi Chinh quan niera ay da dan ddn hai cdra xuc la sg hai va ndi tu hao - mpt trang thai pha trdn ldm ly mang tinh bimg nd Do sg hai vd ly hao dinh hudng, cdc nha dan tpc chu nghTa khat khao sd hftu VKHN, vugt qua ca nhihig linh toan lgi ich Do ciia nirdrc Phap Mat khdc, de Gaulle cung to it chil t6i viec lieu luc lucmg h^t nhan ciia Phap co dii khd nSng dS ngan chan m6i de dpa quan sir tu Lien Xo hay khong Vi du, cuoc khiing hoang Berlin 1958 (tru'dc Ph^p thii hat nhan nSm I960) va cuoc khiing hodng t6n lira Cuba 1962 (sau vu thii nhung trudc lyc lugng hat nhSn Phdp duac tnen khai), de Gaulle nhan m^nh niem tin rang Lien X6 s5 khong mao hi£m tan c6ng cdc nuac NATO Phd bidn vu hat nhan tu goc nhin do, mac cho su phftc lap cua nhftng lya chgn hat nhdn, cdc nha lanh dao ma quyet sd hiru bom hal nhdn cd xu hudng khdng quay trd lai Ddi vdi hg, khdng gidng nhu phdn ldn cdc ddng nghiep, lya chgn VKHN chang phdi mpt ldi keu ggi hay sy lya chgn cudi cung ma la sy can thidt luyet ddi"' Trong do, Scott D Sagan chi rdng viec sa hiru VKHN gdn nhu de phuc vu lgi ich chlnh Iri hep cua mot so nhdn vdt Irong giai tinh hoa han Id bdo vi an ninh quoc gia Do dd, neu mpi chu the dudi qudc gia, vi du nhu cac chfnh in gia, quan chftc lien quan den chuang frinh hat nhan hay nhiing nhan vat cd dnh hudng frong qudn dpi hoac cdc quan chftc mong mudn xay dung chuong irinh hat nhan la dan vi phan tich dau lien, cdn nhan td an ninh qudc gia chi la phan phy Them nfta, Sagan cho rdng nhung nhan Id dudi ldm qudc gia, cac nhdm tinh hoa vdi lgi ich nhdm lac dpng den chinh sach cua chinh phu theo hai each, cdch true tiep Id ldn dung khd ndng va sue manh chinh tn, each thu hai la lac dpng gian tiep qua thdng tin Gde nhin ngy y rdng cdc chft the dudi tam qudc gia cd mpt vai trd chft dpng hon qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sach chft khdng don thuan la chay Iheo vd phuc limg nhiing nhftng quyel sdch chinh tri cua cdc lanh dao cap cao Cac nha dpc tai vdn khdng ua xu thd hdi nhdp khu vye va toan cau gdn nhu chdc chdn se tim each sd him VKHN de dat dugc cac myc dich chinh tri cung nhu Iri quydn lyc VKHN trd thdnh mdt cdng cy tuyen tmyen cua cdc nha nudc dpc lai ve chinh tri va biet lap ve kinh le Ndi cdch khac, lgi ich hep ciia mpt sd chu the Irong qua trinh hoach dinh chinh sdch hat nhan tac dpng manh den su lya chgn cua ddi nudc Nhung chu the ndy Ihdng thudng mudn VKHN dugc sd huu bdi gidi quan su, ngdnh cdng nghiep quan sy, gidi khoa hgc hat nhan va Hymans, Jacques E C, (2006): ^a ddn, p ' Sagan, Scort D (1996) iVliy Do Slates Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Searcli of a Bomb, Intemationai Security, No 21 (3), p 63, ^ Sagan, Scott D (1996): da ddn, p 64 NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TRf THt GICTI So 10(234) 2015- Phd bien vu hgt nhan tu goc nhin.,, tdng ldp chinh fri Thdng thudng, lgi ich chung cua nhdm cac chu the se tao mdt lien minh, mpt nhdm linh hoa chien lugc mudn gianh dugc quyen kiem soat hanh chinh va thdng tin ddi vdi cdng ludn Bang cdch kiem soat cdng ludn, nhdm tinh hoa chien lugc cd the tao tam ly sd ddng hudng tdi VKHN vdi viec dyng len nhftng mdi de dga frong nhan thftc va quan trgng hon la gan nhiing gia tri mang tinh bieu tugng vao cdc thiet bi hat nhdn, dd cd the la ldng tu tdn qudc gia, nhitng gid fri tap the, Nhdra tinh hoa chidn lugc se hoat ddng nhu chat xuc tac cho chinh sach hat nhan lam ndi Ien nhihig quy chuan lien quan den huyen thoai hat nhan Nghiem Tuin Hung hop hien va quyen lyc tuyet ddi thdng qua viec sd hiiu vu hal nhdn Duai goc nhin kien lao, niim tin vd lam ly, cdm xiic cua giai linh hoa quy dinh se chuyin Irgng thdi sa hitu VKHN thdnh hdnh dpng mang linh quy chudn vd dugc quy dmh bai bdn sdc That bdt ngd cd su chu y ddnh cho bidu tugng hat nhan va su phat trien cua nhung quy chudn lien quan den vec sd hihi loai hinh vu nay" Khuynh hudng sd hiiu hat nhan cua mpt nudc cd ihl bat ngudn tft ban sdc cua xd hpi do, Khdi nidm vl ban sdc sy lua chgn chinh sach ngoai giao phdn anh quan niem cua mpt xa hpi vl vide ddt nudc ay dftng d dau tuong quan vdi cac nudc khac tren tmdng qudc ll Vai trd cfta cac chu the dudi tam nha nudc Quan niem bdn sac mang linh canh tranh dugc thay rd Irudng hgp cua Bdc Trieu dinh hudng cho quan diem rdng dat nudc nen Tidn Myc dich cao nhat ma Bac Trieu Tien canh tranh hay chap nhan, vi the cao hay thdp, hudng tdi theo dudi chuang Irinh hat nhan v.v Quan niem vd ban sdc chuyen thdnh quy la gift gia dinh hg Kira tren dinh cao quyen lyc chuan nhu la khudn mau ftng xft dirih hudng chft khdng han la de bao dara an ninh vd tuong cho chinh sach hat nhan va ddi ngoai Trong lai cua dat nudc Lap ludn cua gidi chftc Irudng hgp cdc quy chuan ldn thdnh vide sd hftu Bdc Trieu Tien vdi chinh sdch "tien quan" eftng VKHN thi nhftng quy chuan dd xuat phat tir nguydn tac co bdn ty lyc cdnh sinh cung viec mdt khudn mau ca bdn la tham vgng sd hihi noi khdng vdi thuong mai quic tl khiln vu Can phai chu y rdng tham vgng gidi Irft md mpt h£il nhdn dugc coi la sftc manh chinh la nguyen nudc cd gdng theo dudi thdng qua sd hiiu nhdn gidi thich cho dpng lyc hat nhdn cua nudc VKHN khdng tuong iing vdi vide gin gift an ndy Gidi chuc quan sy raudn sd hftu VKHN ninh Hon thd nfta, nd bieu thi thara vgng ciia nhu mpt phuang lidn dl dam bdo quyin luc nha nudc de ty bdo ve rainh, phdn ftng vdi thdng tri d cdp dp npi dia Chinh sach lien qudn nhirng bat dn ve an ninh va tham vgng ty ve cua Trieu Tien do tao dilu kien cho viec mdt each ddc lap Dieu ngu y ca hai khia phat trien hat nhdn dl tri chl dp dpc lai canh: nhan thftc ve an ninh vd chft quyen Gdn quan su d nudc ndy Bdn canh lgi ich cua gidi nhu cac nudc se mudn sd huu hal nhdn nlu hp qudn sy, nguyen ldc ty lyc cdnh sinh vd ly cung Ihay bdt dn ve an ninh hodc cd xu hudng thyc ty cap va thuyet chu the {juchef^ cung phdn hien chinh sdch ngoai giao dpc lap ty chu hodc anh muc tieu cua nha dpc tdi nhdm iri linh the hien tiem ndng quydn luc Trong md hinh ve sy lya chgn hat nhan cua cac nha lanh dao, Jacques E C Hymans da phdt Iridn khai niem ban sdc qudc gia nhu mpt biln sd dpc lap ma '""Thuydt chli the" hoac "Chii i\\k tu tuong" cho rdng ngudi Id chu the ciia tdt ca moi thir tren ddi va dng dinh nghia la "each hidu cua mpt cd nhdn quylt djnh lat ca moi thii Van dung y vao hodn ve ban sdc qudc gia - cam xuc cua ngudi canh cdch mang Tri^u Tien thi ngudi Tri^u Tien chinh Id chli the cua cuoc each mang dd Tdt nhien cd mpt he tu tudng ciia mot che dp chinh tri khong chi dan gian v^y Thuygt ndy phuc tap d6n ndi ngudi phucmg Tay cam thay kho dich trpn ven npi dung ciia thuat ngii nay, thudng chon gidi phdp la phien am, tiing Anh Id Juche Idea Ve van de dao diic hat nhan, xem thfim Nye, Joseph S, (1986): Nuclear Ethics Free Press, New York, vd Stephen P Lee (1993) Morality, Prudence andNuclear Weapons, Cambridge University Press, New York - NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHfNH TR! THt GICTI So 10(234) 2015 jjghjem Tuin Hung hodc ngudi ve cai ma qudc gia dai dien cho va vi the qudc gia dung cao the nao so vdi cdc nudc khac fren trudng qudc ll"'^ Quan niem vl ban sdc qudc gia Id rapt nilm lin dn sau ben rd va khd thay ddi qua Ihdi gian Cach thftc nhiing quy chuan mang tinh lien chu quan {intersubjective) va xudt phat tft ban sdc tap thi bilu thi cho chinh sdch hat nhan thdng qua khudn mau "chftng ta" chdng lai "hg" vdn Ihl hien sy tuong phdn gifta chu thi "chung ta" vdi nhimg ke thu dich tren thuc t l hoac frong nhdn thuc Trong thdi ky Chiln Iranh Lanh, su thu dich dugc xdc dinh thdng qua sy xung ddt vd y thuc he cdn hien tai, hdu hit cac nudc frong thdi ky hau thuc ddn, quan niem vl "ke khdc" gan nhu dugc gdn vdi nhihig nudc thyc dan tmdc ddy va ngudi kl thfta cua hg Ban sdc Ihdi ky hau thyc ddn cd xu hudng dua them nhiing chidu canh tinh cam manh me vao viec xac dinh sy khdc biet gifta "ta" vd "hg" vd tac dpng manh den tam ly tap thd ve chft quyen Xung dpi cua sy xdc dinh linh cam vdi trat tu hat nhan qudc td, frong cdc cudng qudc thuc dan cu va nhimg ngudi ke thua ciia hg gianh lay uy the thdng qua mpt hiep udc bat binh dang, thuc day thdng qua rapt the che raang tinh bao ve vdn thudng dugc nhan thftc la de dga cam giac vd gid tri chu quyen vd qudc gia vdn dugc cac nhd nudc hau thyc ddn xac dinh Cam gidc manh me vd chu quyen cdc nudc hau thyc dan the hien vd hg lim kiem vi the diing dan tren chile ban quic tl, vi the vdn dugc chuyen uy tin qudc tl, la nhiing dieu kien quan trgng tao nen huyen thoai hat nhdn, vi dy nhu mpt bd quy tdc ung hp viec sd hiiu hat nhan Jacques Hymans cho rdng ban sdc se chuyen sang hai dang quy chuan co ban Id "cam ky hat nhdn" va "huyen thoai hat nhan" Khi cam gidc v l sy tuong ddng gifta cdc chu thd cang ldn thi hg se "ghe ldm" nhiing Ioai vu mang tinh bilu tugng cho sftc manh huy diet ciia ke khdc Ngugc lai, neu nhiing chu the xac dinh radi '^ Hymans, Jacques E, C (2006): The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Po/zcy, Cambridge University Press, p 13 Phd bidn vu hat nhan tif gde nhin quan he vdi "ke khac" Ihuan mang linh ddi lap se cd xu the bi thu hut bdi cdm gidc dugc an toan vu hat nhdn vdi tu each la nhung cdng cy ngan chdn mang lai; dd Id "huyen thoai" Ban sdc Ihdi ky hdu thyc ddn cd xu hudng dua them nhiing chidu canh tinh cara raanh md vao viec xdc dinh sy khdc biet gifta "ta" va "hg" va lac dpng raanh den tara ly tap the vd chu quyen, Vi du rd nhdi Id tmdng hgp cua Iran va An Dp, dd ly luan ve hat nhdn mang iheo ham y chdng thyc ddn manh me Lap luan cua cac nudc thien ve cam tinh dd sy phdn ddi danh cho co che lodn cau ve su phan biel hat nhdn cung gidng nhu cupe chidn gidnh dpc lap Xung dpt cua su xac dinh tinh cam vdi frat ty hat nhan qudc td, frong dd cac cudng qudc thyc ddn cu vd nhftng ngudi kd thfta cua hg gianh lay uy the thdng qua mpt hiep udc bat binh ddng, thuc day thdng qua mpt the che mang tinh bao vd vdn ihudng dugc nhan thftc la de dga cam giac ve gid tri chu quyen va qudc gia vdn dugc cac nha nudc hau thyc dan xac dinh Ngodi ldm ly "chong thuc ddn" vd lim cong bdng, cdc nhd nuac co dpng luc phdt trien hgt nhdn hg nhgn thdy VKHN Id biiu tuang cua uy lin vd su hien dgi, ddng thdi thuc ddy vi the cua nhd nudc hay nhu Lavoy ndi rdng dd la rapt huyen thoai Quan niem ve huyen thoai hat nhan rat gdn vdi tu tudng ve uy tin, cdi ma cdc nudc lim kiera he thdng qudc te Cdc nudc deu raudn ndng cao vi the bdng cdch bieu tmng va tang cudng quyen lyc VKHN, vdn dugc coi la bieu tugng cua sue manh luyet ddi, xudt hien nhu la mpt cdng cu dac lyc de cac nhd nudc dat dugc muc tieu cua rainh Nhiing nhd nudc dd "thudng la nhiing nudc that tran cudc chien tranh giua cac cudng qudc va/hoac tdng cudng quyen lyc sau trdt ty qudc Id dugc Ihiet lap va lgi ich dugc phan chia" Ludn diem kien tao dal frgng tam vao ldgic vd sy tuong thich, vdn dugc xac dinh nhu hanh vi chinh tri nhu la sdn pham cfta '^ Feaver, Peter D (2000): Brother, Can You Spare a Paradigm'', Intemationai Summer 2000, p 177 NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! TH^ GICTI So 10(234) 2015 Security, Vol 25, No.l, -23 Phd bien vu hat nhan tir goc nhin, luat le, vai frd va bdn sdc ma quy dinh hanh yi cua qudc gia frong limg tmdng hgp cu the Nhiing ddng lyc cua hanh vi sd huu hat nhdn dd dugc nhin nhan tft gde dp nhiing gia Iri dugc kiln tao vl mat xd hdi Trong nhilu nudc cd thi cho rdng sd hiiu VKHN la dieu kien can thiel dl frd thdnh rapt nhd nudc hipn dai thi nhimg nudc khac cd ihl phat frien nhihig quy chuan ddi lap, khac biet vdi bdn sdc cua mpt nhd nudc hidn dai Theo hgc gia Scott D Sagan "tu goc nhin xa hpi hgc, cdc td chftc quan sy vd vu cua hg cd thd dugc dy dodn mang chftc ndng phye vu nhu nhiing la cd, cac hang hang khdng hay dpi tuydn Olympic; chiing la ragt phan md cac nha nudc hien dai lin rang hg phai sd hftu de dung Id nhftng nha nudc chinh thdng vd hien dai" Niem tu hdo v&i tham vgng ve vi thi Id nhdn to quan Irong quan niem ve bdn sdc Niem tu hdo the hien irong radi quan he gifta chung la vdi ddi Ihii/ddi tdc Thara vgng ve vj the dugc chuyen thai dp sd hiiu VKHN hai trudng hgp: Thit nhdt, "chung ta" binh dang hay ban "ngudi khac" ve vi the; hogc thie hai, viec ddi thu sd hiiu VKHN dugc nhan thuc la vi tdng cudng vi the Trudng hgp thft hai la ddc biel quan trgng Nd cd the ly giai cho gia thiet rang hau het cac nudc xdc djnh vi the cua hg il nhat phai ngang bdng so sanh vdi cdc ddi thu'^ Neu ddi thu dugc cho la ttm each ndng cao vi the nhd VKHN thi khdt khao ve vi the chdc chdn se chuyen sang mong mudn sd hihi vu khi' Mat khdc, Irong sd cdc nudc cd tiem ndng hal nhdn quan sy nhung khdng phat trien, tham vong ve vi the cd the dugc nang vdi " Sagan, Scott D (1996): da ddn, p,74, '^ Co ngudi se cho rdng mrdc Dire Id mot ngoai le tim kiem vj the so sdnh vdi hai doi thu dupc vu trang hat nhan la Anh va Phap Tuy nhien, trudng hgp ngoai le ndy bat nguon tir yeu to hch sii ngirdi Diic da thua tran The chien thii hai '* Nudc sd hOu VKHN de chong lai ddi thii khong cd VKHN chinh la Israel Trong Israel chung td hp Id mpt cudng qudc so sanh vdi cdc dfii thii thi hp cho rdng sir sg hai (ban chdt) ddng vai trd tdi quan trpng su lira chgn hat nhdn Mot vi du khdc cho gia thi6t ndy la B3c Tneu Tien vdi cdc ddi thii la Hdn Qu6c va Nhat Ban ; day khdng phdi la mpt vi du cd sue nang nudc ciing co tiem ndng quan su cyc ldn 24- Nghiem Tuin Hung cao quan diem chdng hat nhdn (dl cao dao dftc, giai trft quan bi) ndu ddi thu cua hg bien hp rang VKHN la mpt phan cua vi the qudc Id"' Trong ITnh vuc hat nhan, Irdt ly qudc te thiet lap ndm 1968 vdi Hidp udc Cara phd bidn (NPT), gift gin Irang thai cdn bang quyin luc nhung mang lai ddng cdp sidu cudng cho mpt nhdm nudc Nhihig nudc ndo cho rdng su bat cdng phat Iriln eftng vdi vi the va quyen lyc cdng tang cua nhdm nudc se cd xu Ihl chdng lai thi chl Su ddi lap cd the bi han chl, it ihl hien hoat dpng ngoai giao cua hdu hit cdc cudng qudc dang ndi ldn nhung frong mdt vdi Irudng hgp, nhihig nudc mdi ndi se tira kilra mpt sy thay ddi Irong he thdng bdng cdch sd hihi VKHN Vi the, phai hieu ve sy khac bidt rd rang tdn tai gifta vu thdng thudng vd VKHN, Sy khac biet khdng nam cac ftng dung qudn sy hay mftc dp huy diet ma hon thi nfta, sy khac bidt dugc kiln tao ve mat xa hpi, phdn dnh ban sac cfta nhiing chu the cd lien quan Ban sac dugc chuyen Ihanh quy chuan djnh hudng cho cac khudn khd hdnh dpng, Trong qua Irinh hinh quy chuan, nhiing cam xuc nhu sy tu hdo hay ndi sg hai dugc gan vdi vdn de hal nhan Trong qua Irinh ndy, VKHN ndi len nhu rapt bieu tugng cua uy tin Trong trudng hgp nudc Phap nhu da trinh bay d tren, niem lin cua gidi chftc Phdp da bien VKHN trd mdt bieu lugng ciia su dpc lap vd vT dai Nudc Phap sau The chien thft hai da d vdo mpt vi the khdng chdc chdn: Du la mdt nudc chien thang nhung neu xet vd v; the qudc td vd sftc manh quan su thi hg chdng la gi so vdi cac nudc phe Ddng Minh va ciing thua kem rdl nhieu so vdi chinh nudc Phap giai doan trudc Do dd, khdng ngac nhidn chtnh phu cua Ndn cpng hda ihu tu va thft ndra lim mgi each thuc va phuong lien de dua nudc Phap trd lai vi the cudng qudc nhu lich su'* Sau cupe chidn, no lyc dau Cac nudc Scandinavia co the coi la vi du cho dpng luc '* vk vdn da nay, tham khao them Scheinman, Lawrence (1965): Atomic Energy Policy in France Under the - NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TR! THt GICTI So 10(234) 2015 J!!gh[em Tudn Hung tien cua nudc Phdp nhdm khdi phuc lai vi the Id lap Irung vao cupe chiln gift vi the de qudc d cac thudc dia nhung nhu Michel Martin da ndi, "khi tam man da bao phu vi Ihl thuc dan thi su vT dai cua dat nudc ndy phai dugc nudi ndng tft nhiing ngudn khdc"'^ VKHN cd thi dugc coi Id bieu tugng cua nudc Phdp sudt thdi ky sau Khi ngudi Phdp mien cudng dimg thft hat nhdn tft gifta nhftng ndm 1990, dieu dd khdng chi dugc coi nhu nhftng lo ngai ve hien dai hda qudn su va an todn hat nhdn md cdn bdi nhihig vu thft dugc nudc Phdp coi nhu la bieu tudng cua ban sdc vd vi the cudng qudc cua nudc Phdp Mpt vai han che phan tich cua CNKT Cho du da raang lai each tiep can mdi dua vao tam ly cua gidi tinh hoa va van de lien quan den ban sac qudc gia vd nhdn ihftc ve chudn myc nhung each ly giai cua CNKT ve vdn dd phd bidn hat nhan van cdn mpt sd diera han che nhu sau: Thii: nhdt, cdch ly giai dya vdo each tiep can ca nhan va gidi tinh hoa vdi nhirng lgi ich hep cua hg khdng ban la hgp ly vd dung dan frong mgi tmdng hgp vd mgi Ihdi diera Vi du, nhiing ndm 1990, Bdc Trieu Tien thyc thi chinh sach khdc hdn vdi hien Quyel dinh ky ket mpt hiep udc khung cua Bdc Trieu Tien vdo ndra 1994 dugc coi la mdt sy bai thudng Du bdi canh Bdc Trieu Tien phai chju dyng cung khdng khdc hien la may (ihidu ddi, kinh le tri tre, tap Irung quyen lyc tay quan dpi) nhung hg van quyet dinh ky thda thuan ngimg chuang trinh hat nhan Thda thuan song phuang vdi My bupc Bac Trieu Tien phai lam ddng cfta nha may hat nhan Yongbyon, cho phep cdc sdt vidn cua IAEA den ldm vide vd la mpt vien ciia Hiep udc NPT, Thda thuan ndy chftng Id Bdc Trieu Tien sdn sang dinh chi Fourth Republic vd Kohl, Wilfrid (1971): French Nuclear Diplomacy, Princeton University Press " Martin, Michel L (1981): Warriors lo Managers The French Military Establishment Since 1945, Chapel HiU, University ofNorth Carolina Press, N C , p.21 Phd bien vu hat nhdn tu goc nhin., chuong trinh hat nhan vd chuang frinh hat nhan Tridu Tien khdng phai phuc vy cho lgi ich cua cac nha ldnh dao chinh tri va quan sy Hanh vi trai ngugc ndy khdng dftng vdi logic cho rang VKHN dugc quyet dinh bdi gidi tinh hoa Thtt hai, du cdch tidp can ndy khd hiiu dung, cd the gidi thich vai trd cua nhihig ca nhan, gidi linh hoa cd dnh hudng qua trinh xay dyng chuong Irinh hat nhdn nhung rapt phe phdn chung nfta ddnh cho cdch tidp can dya vdo niem tin la nd chi ihich hgp dd ly gidi hdnh dpng cua ca nhan chu rat khd de gidi Ihich tai cdc nhdm cd niem tin ve cdc van de tuong tu nhu Hon nua, luan diera cho rang cdc nhdm chuyen gia cd the dnh hudng den quyet dinh khdng phd bien Id thuyet phuc nhung ciing dan den cau hdi lam cac chuyen gia cd the Ihay ddi niem tin cua cac nhd hoach dinh chinh sach Ndi each khdc, dieu gi khien cac nha lanh dao chinh tri chap nhan tu tudng cfta mdt nhdm cdc chuyen gia thay vi mdt nhdm khac? Tai hg san sang chap nhan thuyet ngdn chdn bdng ly tri cua nhftng ndra 1950? Tai ly thuyet khdng cdn thuyet phye? Cdc nhd lanh dao chinh Iri ddi sft dung y tudng cua cdc chuyen gia de giai thich hodc hgp ly hda nhiing chinh sdch ma hg theo dudi vi cac myc dich chinh tri Thir ba, du cd nhiing didra dang chu y giai thich ddng lyc phd bien cung sy lya chgn chinh sach nhung each tiep can tara ly van cdn nhiing diem han che Han che ldn nhdt la nhiing nhan td tam ly, quy chuan hay ban sdc rat khd dugc dinh lugng, rat de thay ddi thdng qua qua trinh hgc tap va nhdn Ihftc; vi phan tich dya tren nhirng yeu td tinh than chi raang lai nhiing giai thich tucmg ddi han che ve dpng lyc ciia cdc qudc gia hat nhan Cach liep can lam ly cd the mang lai each hieu ve he thdng niem lin cung qua frinh hgc hdi hay tac dpng cua chung vdo van de hoach dinh chinh sdch nhung chiing qua hep va chuyen biel de gidi ihich mdi quan he gifta niem lin vdi cdc nhan td khac Irong qud trinh phd bien Khi tdra ly cd nhan lanh dao thay ddi ihi lieu chinh sach cd thay ddi? Cd the ndi rdng niem tin se thay ddi nhu la kit qua cua qua NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj THt GICTI So 10(234) 2015 -25 Phd bidn vu hat nhdn tCr goc nhin trinh hgc tap hay nhan thuc dua nhihig thdng tin dugc chia se vd qua trinh hgc tap, nhan thftc cd the dan den nhihig chinh sdch mdi Cau hdi quan frgng cdn phdi gidi quyel la: cdi gi khien cdc chu the tin rdng mpt sd viec hg lam la diing va mdi quan he giua niem tin, sy kien, Iruyen Ihdng, cdng nghe va chinh tri la gi? Chdc chan, cdi ggi Id huyen thoai hal nhan gdn nhu se tdn tai cho den nhung ca nhdn cd vi tri cao, tam dnh hudng thay ddi tu vd tao mpi huyen thoai khac - cd the Id cau chuyen mat an ninh hal nhdn Cdu hdi ddt d day la lieu niem tin vao trang thdi mdt an ninh hal nhan thu vu mang lai cd the dugc coi la huyen thoai? Khi cang cd nhilu thdng tin vl nhftng tac dpng lieu cyc tu cac vy lai nan hal nhan raang lai va ngudi ta nghi vdn nhiing tdc dpng dd thi cd niem tin ve hal nhdn vdi tu each nhu mpi cau chuydn huyin thoai dudng nhu khdng cdn dung dan Nhin chung, each tiep can raang linh nhan thftc, dya vdo ldm ly ca nhan vd ldp trung vdo Nghiem Tuin Hung niem lin cung nhu vai frd cua gidi tinh hoa Irong viec xay dung ban sdc hay bilu tugng qudc gia cd the gdp phdn giai thich vl nhihig anh hudng den quydl dinh sd hihi va phd biln VKHN Mpt lgi ich cua each liip can la nhdn Ihftc dpng luc phd bidn da tach rdi khdi quan diem cho rdng cac cd nhan hay nhdm hoach dinh chinh sdch hat nhan bi dinh hudng bdi Igi ich qudc gia hay sue ep cua he thing qudc te Dieu mang lai each dien gidi rpng ve dpng luc cho hanh vi cua ngudi, vugt qua gidi han cua Chu nghTa hipn thuc viec tim kiem nguyen nhdn phd bidn VKHN Dil vay, tam ly ca nhan la cai rdl kho dl lugng hda, can dong dera Hon nfta, viec phi bien niem tin giua cac vien ciia mpi nhom tinh hoa cam quyen ciing khdng phai chuydn de dang; ngoai ra, niem tin ay cd the lan tda den nhiing nhdm linh hoa ddi lap hay nhdm tinh hoa cdm quyen cd dft khd ndng dd bien niem tin hdnh dpng hay khdng la dieu rdt khd noi Vi the, khd cd the coi ly luan cua CNKT la mpt each gidi thich loan dien, md nd chi ddng gdp them mpt tidng ndi hay rapt gde nhin da chieu hon, cdch gidi thich cho dpng lyc phi biln VKHN tren Ihl gidi* Tai lieu tham khao: Crawford, Neta C (2000): The Passion of World Politics: Propositions on Emotions and Emotional Relationships, Intemational Security, No 24, Vol de Gaulle, Chades (1971): Memoirs of Hope: Renewal and Endeavor, Simon and Schuster, New York Hymans, Jacques E C (2006): The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions, and Foreign Policy, Cambridge University Press Jervis, Robert (1976): Perception and Misperception in Inlernalional Princeton University Press Politics Princeton, Lavoy, Peter R (1993): Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation, Security Studies, Vol 2, Spring/Summer Nye, Joseph S (1986): Nuclear Ethics, Free Press, New York Sagan, Scott D (1996): Why Do Stales Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb, Intemational Security, No 21 (3), 26 - NhOng vin 6i KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj THt Gldl So 10(234} 2015