Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thuy sdn So 4/2014 KET QUA NGHIEN CQU D A O TAO SAU DAI HOC NGHIEN ClTU DANH GIA CHI TIEU AN TOAN CUA DONG CO TUA BIN KHl SU" DUNG TREN CAC TAU THUY Of VIET NAM RESEARCH ON EVALUATION OF SAFETY NORMS FOR GAS TURBINE ENGINES USED ON MARINE SHIPS IN VIETNAM Ltru Minh Hdi', Nguyen Trung H^ Ngay nhiin bii 02/6/2014; Ngiiy phan bien thong qua- 27/6/2014; Ngay duy?I ding' 01/12/2014 T O M TAT Bdi bdo ndy tdm tdt ket qud nghien cuu ddnh gid chi tieu an todn cho dgng ca tua bin su dung tren cdc tdu ikuy a Vi4t Nam Chi lieu an todn eua mgt h4 thong ky thudt duac ddnh gid thong qua xdc suat an todn hogc xdc sudt kotig ciia timg phdn tu he thong Viec ket hap phutmg phdp logic xde sudt vd phuang phdp phdn tich cdy hu hong cho phep ndng cao chinh xdc irong ddnh gid chi tieu an todn cho dgng ca tua bin Phdn mem SSAT'2013 dugc xdy dimg cho phep xde dinh ede thong so ciia chi lieu an lodn nhanh chong dong thm dua cde ket qud du bdo ddng tin cdy ve ti)0i trgng ky thugt cua thiet bi Tie khoa Dg lin cgy dgng ca lua bin kill, chi tieu an todn ABTRACT This paper summarizes the results ofstudies evaluating safety norms for gas turbine engines used on marine ships in Vietnam Safety norms of a technical system are evaluated through safety probability or probability of failure to each elemail inihe system The combination ofprobabili^ • logic method and Fault Tree Analysis method allows improving the accumcy of safely norms evaluation for gas turbine engines SSAT-2013 software is developed to allow indentifying promptly &e parameters of safely norms while providing results of reliable prediction of a technical condition of the equipment Keywords' Reliability, gas turbine engine, safety norm I DAT V A N Bt Chi lieu an todn eho phep ta danh gid dupe khd ndng lam vige an toan eua frang bj ky thudt qud trinh khai Ihdc Chi lidu an toan duac dae trung bdi eudng dp hdng vd xac suat lam vige khdng hdng thai gian lam vige tnjng binh an todn [3,4] Day Id mdt nhO'ng chi tieu quan trpng nhit ddnh gid dp tin e$y cua trang bj ky thudt DOng ea tua bin khf (TBK) co cong suit Idn, tinh ea dong eao, khdi lup-ng vd kieh thude nhd gpn so vdi cac logi d$ng ca ciing cdng suat khac Hign nay, cdc d|ng ca TBK dang dupe i>ng dgng rOng rai cdc trgm phat didn Unh tgi, tren ede phuang tidn giao thong van ldi vd dgc bigt Id trdn cdc tdu eiia Hdi qudn Nhijng uu flllm cua hg dpng Iyc TBK eho phep cdc tdu thity phdl huy Q\igc tdc dp eao vd cdc tinh ndng ein thilt d l thi^c hign cae nhidm vy dup'c giao, dac biet Id tiong luin Ira, eiru h$, a>u ngn, bdo vg an loan cho ngu dan khai Ihdc xa K», bdo vg chu quyin biln dao them lue dja eua id quoc Tuy nhien, vige su dyng vd khai thde dgng w TBK luang ddi phirc tap, ddi hdi ngudi khai thac phai ed trinh dp cao, ehap hdnh nghidm nggt cac qui trinh khai thde, cdc qui djnh kiem tra, bdo dir&ng dpng ca Ngodi ra, dieu kien thdi tilt, hdu va mdi trudng hogl ddng cung anh hudng rat Idn toi eong suit, dp ben va tuoi thp cua dOng ca TBK tau thuy Thuc t l khai thde thdi gian qua cho Ihly xuit hidn r i t nhilu cde hu hdng xdy cho dOng caTBK, Idm dnh hudng khdng nho ldi vige dam bdo dp tin cdy, tinh an todn eCia hd ddng lye tdu Vigc sia chua ede thill bj, h§ thdng eua ddng ea TBK cung phdc tap vd khd khdn nhat Id dang hogl dong tren biln Vi thd, vigc nghien eiru ddnh gia chi tiSu 'Luu Mmh Hdi: Cao hpc Ky thugl t^u thuyen 2011 -Trudng Ogi hpc Nha Trang ^ TS Nguyen Tmng Hdi: Hoc vien Hai QuSn - Nha Trang 1 - TRUONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG So 4/2014 Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thuy sdn an loan qua dd dy bdo tinh trgng ky thugt cho ede ding ca TBK tdu thiiy vd de xual cdc bidn phdp phii hp'p nang cao linh an toan cho dpng ca Id het sire can thiet va c l n ed sy quan tdm thoa ddng tir phia nguo'i qudn ly va sir dung tdu nhal la dilu kidn kinh t l nudc ta cdn ngheo II MUC Tieu, B TU'GNG VA PHU-ONG P H A P NGHIEN CtJU Muc lieu eua d l tdi gidi quylt hai van d l sau: - Xdy dyng phuang phap ddnh gid chi tieu an todn eua dpng ca TBK tdu thuy; - Xdy dyng phln mem mdy tinh ddnh gid chi lidu an todn eua ding ca TBK tau thuy Doi tupng nghien CLPU oia d l ldi la ede d$ng ea TBK su dgng tren ede tdu thuy d Viet Nam Trpng d l tdi tdc gid su- dung phuang phdp logic xdc suit [1,2,4] k l l hp'p phuang phdp phdn tfch cay hu hdng de xde djnh chi tidu an todn cho ding ca TBK tdu thiiy [1,5,6] Qud trinh nghien euu, ddnh gid chi tidu an toan eiia dpng ca TBK dupe thye hign theo trinh ty nhu hinh1 KET LUAN, BANH GIA CHI TIEU AN TOAN CilA DONG CO TBK TAU THUY M E T NAM [ili:< £!•] ^ J H j j i j •, k'tiui Til B I T i E Euj i S u 3IE EI i ^ i ^ m Hinh Phinmg phip v^ trinh tir tiojx hi^n III K^T QUA NGHIEN CI>U V A T H A O L U A N Sv nguyen ly dpng cc tua bin tau thiiy TA TBCV Hlnh Sor dh nguySn 1^ dpng ea (ua bin Ichf t^u thuy I, 2- May nen thap dp, - May nen cao dp, - Buong dot, - Tuabin cao dp I - Tuabin thap dp, - Tiiahin chdn vit, - Hqp so, - Chan vit Cac phan ti> chfnh cua ddng cc TBK dimg d l ddnh gia chi tieu an toan D l qud b-inh phdn \.\dn, tinh todn ddnh gid chi lieu an toan dio dOng ca TBK lau IhOy dup'c thu^n lien nhung dam bdp dat dugc eae kit qud nhu mong mudn, ddng thdi dua cae gidi phdp cd tinh khoa hpc, khd thi nhim ndng cao tinh an todn cho dpng ea TBK tdu thiiy, tde gia phan ehla dpng ea TBK thdnh cdc nhdm phln h> quy ddi vd cdc phln lif quy ddi (gpi Id phan hg va phan tir) nhu bang 1' TRUONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG • 1 So 4/2014 Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thiiy sdn Bang Cac phan tip, phdn hg cua dpng co> TBK dimg de ddnh gia chi tieu an toan Ten phin ti> TT K( hl$u phln ti> Thiet bi v^o X, Mdy n6n kh[ X, Bu6ng dot X, Tuabin X, tryc X, H? th6ng ntlien li#u Y, H# thong boi tran Y, H? thong l^m melt Y, H^ th6ng khai dOng Y, 10 H$ thing Z, 11 He thong dien Z, Phan h| KV hilu phan h| Dong ca X H^ thong phMC vg Y H$ th6ng di^u khiln, bao v$ Z So* dd cau tnic ddnh gia chi tieu an loan cua ddng c a tua bin tau thCiy So dp eau true diing d l ddnh gid ehi tieu an todn eiia ddng ca TBK tdu thiiy Vtdl Nam gdm 11 phan tiy noi tilp nhu sa dd hinh Hlnh SOT dh cau true danh gia chi Keu an toan cua d^ng ca (ua bin tka thuy Mo hinh cay hu- hdng cua dong ca tua bin tau thuy (X5) (Yi) fYjj \Yi) Hlnh M5 hinh cfiy hv Mng cua dOng cff tua bin Ithf tin thuy 1 - TRl/ONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG [YA] Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thuy sdn So 4/2014 Sa dd thugt toan xi> ly sd lieu thdng kd S a dd thugt todn xdc djnh chi tidu an todn cua cdc phdn he vd ciia cd dong ca TBK Nhip da ii«u Xt^lyaolifuthficgke I 31 XBC dioh chi ti^u AT cOa cac phan td bing phuong phip Ihdng ke XSc dinh clii tieu AT ciia TBK bang phirong p h ^ logic-xac suat In k i t q u i Kit thuc Hinh Stf thual todn xn-ly so li^u thong kS Hlnh Scr d^ thu^t to&n xac dinh chi tieu an to&n dong ct TBK tin thuy Viet Nam Phan mem SSAT 2013 WKm m n h Giao difo ph:m mim SSAT'2013 Phln mim xdc djnh, ddnh gid ehi tidu an loan eita ddng ea TBK tau thuy SSAT-2013 dup'c xdy dung bing ngon ngiJ ldp trinh Visual Basic tren ea sd luu thudt todn hinh va hinh Thing qua phln mem ed I h l thuc hien dup'c cdc npi dung sau: - Thdng kd cdc phln l u cua ddng ca TBK tdu thCiy; - Thdng ke heng hdc cua ede phan tCr; - XLP ly sd lidu thdng ke hong hdc eiia ede phan 10: ehpn dang phan bd, kilm tra gid thuylt thing ke, tinh todn xdc djnh cdc thdng sd cua chi tieu an loan theo iLPng khodng thdi gian khdo sat nhu: Ham mat dp phdn phdl xdc suit, xac suit hong, xae suat an todn, eudng dp hdng, thdi gidn lam vi$c trung binh an todn, TRL/ONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG - 1 Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thdy sdn So 4/20t^ - Tinh todn xdc djnh eae thdng sd chi lidu an todn eua ede phdn he vd eua ed dong ca; - Ve dd thj hdm m^l dd phdn phdi xdc suit hdng, dd th! cac hdm xdc suit an todn, xdc suit hdng eho tirng phan tir, tirng phdn hd vd dpng ca; - Dua cdc k i t lu$n ve chi tidu an todn chp tirng phan tCr, tirng phan he vd cho cd dOng ca Chi tidu an toan ciia cdc phan tir vd cua dong caTBK Hlnh Bilu d^ cirjrag d^ hAng cua cac phan (ur cua dgng c< Tba hin tau thny Hinh Bieu thM gian lim vi^c trung binh an to^ cii cic phan tir cua d^ng cv TBK tau thuy Cde k l l qud tinh toan chi tidu an todn cCia dpng ca TBK bing phan mem SSAT-2013 dupe tong hpp vd trinh bdy trdn cdc bdng 2, vd cac hinh 9,10 Bang Xdc s u i t h6ng cua cac phan tip cOa dpng cor TBK TT 10 11 12 13 sdt (Gi6) Thiet bi 0*200 200*400 400*600 600-800 800*1000 1000-1200 1200-1400 1400*1600 1600-1800 1800-2000 2000 * 2200 2200 - 2400 2400*2600 00007 Bu&ng Xic s u i t h6ng HT nhien HTbAi HTIam HT khi7i d^ng 000013 Tu.bln 6trvc 00006 0,00018 0,00013 0,00131 00728 0,00115 00689 0,00316 001610 0,00245 0,01278 0,00029 00502 0,00083 001168 0,00030 00489 0,00019 00314 0-02606 0.07077 015544 02618 0,07417 0,05228 012805 0,04269 0,10780 0,02435 07491 0,04698 012219 0,02257 0.06715 0,01496 04635 017315 0,24467 0.15269 0,16715 0,28581 0.31041 45098 048811 62440 0,66680 0,77602 081317 0,25286 041829 0,21973 37515 0,32212 50236 040498 57747 0.28391 0,44848 0,11050 21652 09265 018887 0,36138 59673 0,75457 0,55153 71633 0,67847 81846 0,73190 84780 0,61928 076704 52705 0,68677 0,32655 049093 86959 0,93887 0,84367 92533 0,90940 0,95783 0,92107 0.96021 0,87410 93928 0,81721 0,90772 0,97343 0,98773 0,96888 0,97903 0,98667 0.97791 0.98471 0,97269 98714 0,96122 098819 088675 0,95445 98918 May n6n 91115 0,96486 098902 0,98823 0,00229 0.01147 03721 0,65586 079559 0,89587 0,95698 0,98864 HTkhl HTlSffl 0.00041 omv 0,00628 0,01122' 0.02745 0,0(631 0.07778 0,123i 0.16958 0,2491 0.30462 0,41!f 0,46849 0,5929f 0,63453 0,74t«i 0,77603 086151,, 87794 0,9300) 0,94016 0.96474 97244 0,9794S 98669 0.9W Bang Cdc thdng so cija chi tieu an toan cua d$ng c c TBK tau thuy Viet Nam TT Khodng khdo sdt (Gio-) 10 11 12 13 0*200 200-400 400*600 600*800 800*1000 1000*1200 1200*1400 1400 * 1600 1600*1800 1800*2000 2000*2200 2200*2400 2400*2600 Cdc thflnq s6 cua chi tidu an todn Xdcsudthdng 0.0033552 0514148 0,2140376 5160114 8219104 0,9694262 9980684 0,9999631 0,9999998 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000 1.0000000 Xdc suit an todn 9966448 0,9485852 7859624 0,4839886 01780896 0305738 0,0019316 0000369 0,0000002 0000000 0,0000000 0,0000000 0.0000000 C u ^ g hdng (gifr -') 0.000844 0.001818 0.003431 005727 0.008589 0,011774 0,015031 0.018115 020837 0.022950 0,024086 024169 026863 M 'I Thdlgianldmvi^c buig blnh an todn (gid) 1! 685.16 ,| ii g 116 • TRUONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG Tgp chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe Thuy sdn So 4/2014 S6 lup-ng, Chung lo^i vdt tu, phy timg di,J' phdng CO the cdn eir vao kit qud tinh toan ehi tieu an todn cho tirng phln l u eua dOng ea TBK nhu da ddnh gid d trdn De dam bdo an loan khai thac dOng ea TBK can c6 ke hogeh sira chira dpng ea trudc 1400 gid lam vide IV K^T LUAN vA KI^N NGHj 1600 2000 2400 ^ —XSHH-BflogcoraK XSAT-DeiSCfflBK Hinh 10 Do thi lac suat hong Q(t) \k xac sua! an tokn P(t) cuadQugco'TBK sirdung tren cdc tiu IhAy 6'\lf t Nam Can eu vdo ede k i t qua tinh loan thu 6\xac a trdn, c6 t h i rCit dup'c nhung nhdn xdt, ddnh gia ve linh an loan cho dpng ea tua bin sir dyng tren cdc lau thuy a Vidt Nam nhu sau: Theo sa cau tnje, dpng ea tua bin tdu thuy Vidt Nam Id m^t he Uiong n6i tilp ndn mot phan iCr mpl phan h# bit ky bj hu hong se lam che phdn he hu hong vd keo theo hu hdng cho ca dpng ea TBK Tgi mpl thai dilm ndo dd, xae suit xdy hu hong cCia dpng ea TBK lan ban r i t nhieu so vai xae suat xay hu hong tirng phan hp, tirng phln Ml Dilu ndy cho ^ l y xde suit xay hu hong eua mot phan ttr, mpt phdn hd ldng thi xac suit xdy hu h6ng eua dpng ea TBK tang nhieu, luc tinh an toan cua h? thong bj giam nhanh chong Cdc dpng ca TBK sO dung tren ede tdu thuy a Viet Nam ed thai gian lam vi^e trung binh an todn khoang 685 gia; sau khoang 1400 gid xde x u l l an todn tiln dan ve Nhu vay, theo ti'nh toan eae ehi lieu an todn cho cdc dpng ca TBK tdu thuy Vidt Nam, sau khoang 700 gia lam vt^e, nguy ca hu hdng xdy cho cde dpng ca TBK se tang eao Khi d n phai du tnj b6 sung cae logi vat l u phg liing d l sira ehua, thay the eung nhu co cdc k l hogeh bao qudn, kiem sCra d\f phdng cho phu hgrp Ket qud dat dupv vd han che Kit qud dat dup'c - Xay di^ng ea sd li thuylt xdc djnh ehi tidu an todn cho d0ng ca TBK - Xdy dung thudt loan vd phan mim linh todn, xac djnh chi tieu an todn cua dpng ea TBK su dyng trdn cdc tdu thiiy d Vl^t Nam - Tinh tpan xde djnh cu t h i cdc chi tidu an todn (xdc suit hdng, xdc xuat an todn, cudng dO hdng va thdi gian ldm vipc trung binh an todn) cho tirng phan tir vd cho ed dpng ea TBK theo tirng khodng Uidi gian khao sdt Han ehe Kit qua eua de lai mdi chi dCrng Igl d vi^c tinh loan chi tidu an loan (ehi tidu quan trpng nblt cCia dp tin cay) ma ehua xde djnh cac chi lieu khde cua dp tin cay eiia dOng ca TBK tdu thuy Viet Nam Kien nghj - Cac ca quan qudn ly ky thuat xem xel irng dyng k i t qud d l tdi d l ddnh gid tinh an todn eho ede ddng ea TBK Ddng thdi edn quan lam thieh dang vd tilp tgc nghien ciru sdu han ve eae cht lieu d$ tin cdy cho t i l cd ede dang dpng ea lua bin dang vd se duae su dgng nhilu tren cae tdu thuy d Vidt Nam Irong thdi gian ldi - Can tiep tuc dao tgo sdu han v l khai thde SLT dgng dpng ca TBK tau thCiy d l cd I h l nhanh ch6ng ldm chu, ndng cao khd ndng van hdnh, khai thac, xu ly ede linh huong thi/e le xay TAI Ll£U THAM KHAO Tieng Vi^ Nguyin Trung Hai, 2004 Phan tich cay hir hong va phuong phap logic xac suat danh gia dp tm cgy h? ihong dpng l\rc tau thuy Tap chi Giao thong van t4i s6 5-2004 Nguyin Trang Hai, 2005 Ddnh gia tm c|y ciia h? thong d§og lye c&c tau van tai bien Viit Nara cti su dyng dgng ctr 6L350PN bang phuang phap logic xac suit, Luan an Ti6n sy ky thuat, Tniong Dai hgc Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa Nguyin Nong, Hoang Ngoc Vinh, 2000, Dp tin cay siia chiia to - may keo, NXB Giio due Nguyin Thach, 2004 Co so dg tin c^iy dgng co diesel tau thuy, NXB KHKT, HS Ngi TlingAnh Z.WBIRNBAUM, 1975 Reliability and fault tree analysis - Theoretical and applied aspects of system reliabihty and safety assessment The George Washington University, Washington, D.C Jianwen Xiang, 2005 Fault Tree Analysis and Formal Methods for Requirements Engineering TRLTONG OAI HOC NHA TRANG - 117 ... ea TBK tang nhieu, luc tinh an toan cua h? thong bj giam nhanh chong Cdc dpng ca TBK sO dung tren ede tdu thuy a Viet Nam ed thai gian lam vi^e trung binh an todn khoang 685 gia; sau khoang 1400... an todn, xdc suit hdng eho tirng phan tir, tirng phdn hd vd dpng ca; - Dua cdc k i t lu$n ve chi tidu an todn chp tirng phan tCr, tirng phan he vd cho cd dOng ca Chi tidu an toan ciia cdc phan... cirjrag d^ hAng cua cac phan (ur cua dgng c< Tba hin tau thny Hinh Bieu thM gian lim vi^c trung binh an to^ cii cic phan tir cua d^ng cv TBK tau thuy Cde k l l qud tinh toan chi tidu an todn cCia