KHOA HOC CbNG NGHfe IXIGHIEIM CUU D A I V H GIA DO TIIV CAY CUA HE DOIMG LUC TAU OAlVH CA VIET IMAM BAIMG PHUOIMG P H A P PHAIM TiCH CAY HU HOIMG TrIn Gia Thlii T6MTAT Hau hit cac tau danh ca Viet Nam hien la tau v6 gd, dong theo kinh nghidm dan gian, khdng cd thiet ke, vdi may chinh rat da dang ve cdng suat va chiing loai, co ca cac dpng ca otd, dpng ca lai may phat didn da qua sir dung; do viec nghien cuu danh gia dp tin cay cua he dpng luc cac tau danh ca d nuoc ta co vai tro va y nghla quan trpng Nhom nghien ciiu da su dung mo hinh cay hu hong, kit hpp voi sd lieu thdng kd hu hong thuc tl tir nam 2006 den 2008 cua hd dpng luc 115 tau ca luoi vay Binh Dinh, xiy dung md hinh tinh danh gia dp tin cay he dpng luc tau ca Viet Nam noi chung va ciia cac tau ca ludi viy d Binh Dinh cd sir dung loai dpng ca bp cu hieu Mitsubishi (Nhat Ban) noi rieng Kit qua cho thay, thdi gian lam vide an toan cua cac phan hd thupc he thdng dpng luc tau danh ca ludi vay Binh Dinh ddi vdi dpng ca chinh la 109 ngay, ddi voi h? true chan vit la 233 ngay, hpp sd co dp an toan cao ban la 749 ngay, thdi gian hdi phuc ciia cac phan tu hd thdng la 5,4 - 6,9 ngay, xac suat hu hong ciia toan hd dpng luc la 0,294 Tir khda: Cayhu hong, he dong luc, Mitsubishi, tau danh caludi vay LDATVANDE Danh bit tiitiy san ludn la mdt nhiing nglnh kinh tl miii nhpn ciia Viet Nam, dd viec nghien ciru cac gili phap nhlm dirh bio an toln tau dinh el II vln dl rIt quan trpng Thuc tl cho thly, hlu hit tlu danh ca d nude ta hidn diu II tlu vd gd ddng theo kinh nghiem, khdng cd thilt kl, vdi chung loai mIy chinh trdn tlu rIt da dang vl cd cdng suit ngly cing cao Dilm dac bidt la thdi gian gin day cd nhilu tlu cl dung elc loai ddng co cu da qua sir dung, tham chi cd cl ddng co bd, ddng co lai mIy phat didn ciia cac hang Mitsubishi, Cumin, Hino, v.v Do gia rIt re va phln nIo dip ling dupe ydu clu ciia nghi nen viec su dung loai dpng co cii dang dl lam may chinh budc diu da mang lai mdt sd Ipi ich kinh tl tnrdc mlt cho d c ngu dan Tuy nhidn, khdng tinh dii chi phi vl hidu qua kinh tl nen vi$c sir dung ddng co cu, ddng co bp cii tiln nhu hiln cd thi cd Ipi ich trude mlt, nhtmg xet cl qui trinh lau dai cd thi se gay nhilu thilt hai vl tinh an toln vl Ipi nhuan khai thIc thuc tl ndn cin cd nghien ciiu dinh gil viec str dung loai ddng co dang nly trdn dpi tlu cl, lam ca sd khoa hpc vimg chic cho cle quylt dinh cua co quan quan ly vl ngu dan viec cho phep hay khdng tilp tuc sii dung loai ddng CO nly trdn tlu Ctmg vdi nhiing ydu clu tir cac CO quan quin ly tlu ca d nhilu dia phuong thdi gian gin day, da tiln hinh nghien ciiu str dung phuong phap phan tich cay hu hdng (phan tich h6 thdng) dinh gil an toln vl dp tin cay ciia hd ddng lire tau cl, nhlt II cic tlu dang str dung ddng co bd cu lam may chinh nhlm nang cao tinh an toln vl hidu qua dinh bit dpi tlu danh ca nude ta hidn n PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CUU Cd nhilu phuong phap dinh gil dp tin cay voi tm, nhupc dilm vl pham vi Ip dung khic Tuy nhidn Ip dung vIo dinh gil tinh an toln hd dpng luc tlu thuy cd thi nit mdt sd nhan x l t He ddng luc tlu ndi chung va ciia tlu danh ca ndi ridng II he thdng phiic tap, gdm nhilu phln tii cd tinh nang khic vl ndi tilp vdi nhau, nghla la hu hdng cua mdt phln tu nao dd cd hd tiidng sfi dan din hu hdng ciia nhiing phln tii khic hoac ciia cl he thdng Xlc suit hu hdng elc phln tir h$ dpng luc tlu khdng gidng vl cd thi nhilu nguyin nhan, vi vay phuong phip xac dinh nguyen nhan hu hdng hidu qui nhlt II ndn dua theo nguyen tic ngupc, bit diu tir su xult hien hu hdng he tiidng d^ lln tim nguyen nhan Thuc tl khai tiiac he ddng luc tau cho thly rIt cin xac dinh chmh xlc tap hpp hu hdng vl cac nguydn nhan gay hdng cac phan tii hd tiidng ndi rieng va ciia ca h$ thdng ndi chung nhlm xay dung Khoa Ky thu^t Tau thuy - Trudng D^i hpc Nha Trang 128 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG < 2011 KHOA HOC CbNG NGHfe kl hoach sua chira nhanh chdng, phii hpp, dam hlo an toan tren biln Cin du bao dupe nguyen nhan, thdi gian xuat hien cac hu hdng qua trinh khai tiiac he ddng luc tlu dl lam tdt cdng tic du trii vat tu, dinh ky siia chiia vi elc hu hdng xly trdn biln se rIt khd stra chtra Xult phat tir dac dilm he ddng luc tlu thiiy neu tien, cung vdi vide phan tich tm nhuoc dilm ciia cae phuong phap danh gia dd tin cay hidn nay, da nhan tiily ed thi gili quylt hidu qui bli toln blng phuong phap phan tich cay hu hdng (Fault Tree Analysis Method), trdn co sd str dung dd thi va dai sd logic md tl mdi quan bd giira cac phln tii he thdng va dimg quan he nly dl danh gia kha nang xly hu hdng, quan he giiia cac dang hu hdng, hu hdng cac phln ciia he thdng Phan tich bit diu tir su kien hu hdng ciia he thdng gpi la sukien dinh, sau dd ngupc lan theo dau vet xac dinh nguyen nhan hu hdng, tir dd xac dinh chi tieu dd tin cay, tinh an toan he thdng dang xlt Vl thi, ndi dung quan trpng ciia phuong phap la xay dung chinh xlc cay hu hdng he thdng khao sat, dupe hiiu II dd thi hinh cay dimg md tl mdi quan he logic giira elc phln tii hu hdng he thdng, giiia cac hu hdng co bin vdi hu hdng trung gian va hu hdng dinh, ciing nhu sai llm cua ngudi qua trinh s'i dung va cac nhan td ciia mdi trudng ben ngoai da gay hu hdng ciia he thdng Trong mdt cay hu hdng thudng cd dii ba dang hu hdng ndu tren, ling vdi elc thlnh phln cay, gdm: Gdc la su kien hu hdng cua he thdng dang xet, cdn dupe gpi II sukien hu hdng gd'ehay sukien dinh va thudng dupe ky hieu blng hinh chii nhat Nhanh hoac canh la nhung hu hdng tnmg gian nlm giiia hu hdng dinh vl hu hdng co bin, ciing dupe ky hieu blng hinh chii nhat LI II cac dang hu hdng co bin thudng dupe ky hieu blng mdt hinh trdn Cdng logic nlm giiia cac thlnh phan cay hu hdng, tiic giiia gdc vdi nhlnh va giua nhanh vdi la, nhlm md tl quan hd nhan qui giiia cic hu hdng vl tai cdng logic cd cac su kien vio va su kien Su kien di tir phia la din cdng la su kien vIo vl su kien di tii cdng vl phia su kien gdc la su kien Cd hai loai cdng logic dupe dimg phuong phap cay hu hdng la cdng AND va cdng OR cho bilt each cac str kien vao tac ddng din su kidn ra, dd cdng AND cho bilt mudn xult su kien thi cac su kien vao phii xly ddng thdi, ung vdi phep nhan logic (phip hdi), cdng OR cho bilt su kien se xult hien chi xly mdt sd cle su kien vIo, tuong ling phep cdng logic (phep tuyln) AND X, OR X4 (a) X X4 (b) Hinh 1: So dd bilu diln cay hu hdng Hinh 1II cac dang md hinh cay hu hdng thdng dung vdi cac ky hieu thudng: I la str kien gdc (hu hdng dinh) va la su kien ciia cdng logic, AND va OR (VA vl HOAC) la cle cdng logic; Xj X2, X3, X4 la cac hu hdng CO bin vl la su kien vao ciia cdng logic Tir cay hu hdng, dimg ly thuylt xac suit tinh xac suit xay hu hdng ddi vdi str kien gdc va vdi timg phln dl kit luan dp tin cay he thdng, vdi ham logic md tl cay hu hdng nhu sau: Theo md hinh a: I = Xj JC2-X3 JC4; Theo md hinh: I = Xi+X2+X3+X4 B KET QUA NGHEN CUU D$c dilm vl so dd clu tnic h | ddng lye tlu dinh cl Vi|t Nam Kit qui khIo sit thuc tl cho thly hd ddng luc da sd tlu cl Viet nam cd dac dilm chung gdm mdt ddng CO chinh bd tri d phln dudi tlu, ndi vdi mdt hd true chan vit qua hop sd thiiy luc mdt d p tdc dp (cl tiln vl liii) llm ludn nhiem vu bd ly hpp dIo chilu ddng CO dat dpc theo dudng tam tlu Da sd tlu cd true trung gian ndi hdp so vdi true chan vit va dimg khdp ndi, tiiudng II khdp d c dang hln kit vl hnyln chuyen ddng tir hop sd din tnic chan vjt, hoac giiia d c thlnh phan true vdi Nhu vay, hd ddng luc tlu gdm nhilu phan tu tinh nang khac nhau, bd tri ndi tilp va thupc hd thdng phuc hdi, tiic II mdt phln tii bi hdng thi cd the sua chiia dl phuc hdi kha nang lam viec trd lai Md hinh d y hu hdng ciia d c ddi tupng nghien ciiu dupe xay dung dua tren so dd clu tnic cua he thdng, so dd d u tnic lai dupe xay dung dua trdn so dd nguyen ly he thdng nhtmg NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG - 2011 129 KHGA HOC CbNG NGHfe khdng ddng nhlt nhau, vi so dd clu tnic xay dung dua tren dac diem hoat dpng va Inh hudng cua nhiing hu hdng phln tii din boat ddng he thdng, cdn so dd nguyen ly la md ta mdi lien kit vat ly giiia cac phln tii he thdng Tir kit qua khIo sat thuc tl dac dilm kit cau, nguyen ly lam vide cua hd ddng luc cac tau danh ca cd thi xay dung dupe so dd d u tnic cua he ddng luc cac tau danh d Viet nam nhu trdn hinh vao so dd nguyen ly va phan tich da neu, cd '" phan he ddng luc tau ludi vay ciia Binh Dinh i aih ba phan he la ddng co chinh, hop sd va he tioic chan vjt vdi d c ky hieu tuong ling la X, Y, Z Mat khac, mdi quan he giiia cac phan he la mdi quan he giiia cac phln tu dde lap, ndi tilp vdi nhau, tiic la xly hu hdng d mdt ba phan hd thi se din din hu hdng he ddng luc tlu (hinh 3) Hmh : So dd d u tnic theo phan hd ciia hd dpng luc tlu ludi vay Binh Djnh Din lupt mmh, timg phan he lai gdm cac phan tii vdi ky hieu tuong ling nhu blng Hmh : So dd nguydn ly chung cua hd ddng luc tlu ludi vay Bmh Dinh Cic he thdng phu; Ddng co; Hop sd; Khdp ndi true; True trung gian ; 6 true trung gian ; Ong bao true ; True chin nt; kin nude dudi tau ; 10 true chin vit; 11 Chin vit Tir so dd nguydn ly ciia he ddng lire tlu ludi vay ndu trdn nhan thly day II he thdng phiic tap, gdm cae nhdm phln tii la cac thilt hi, cum thilt bi hay hd thdng nhd cd tinh nang, dac dilm kit clu, nguyen ly boat ddng ridng nlm tinh nang, kit clu, nguyen ly boat ddng chung ctia he ddng luc Timg nhdm phln hi ndu tren lai gdm d c phln ttr II d c chi tilt, cum chi tilt cd tinh nang, dac dilm kit clu, nguyen ly lam viec khac nhau, dd qua trinh lam vide ciia he ddng luc tau khao sat timg chi tilt, cum chi tilt, timg phln tii, nhdm phan tii cd kilu va nguydn nhan hu hdng khic Do dd dl dam bio qua trinh tinh toan va danh gia an toln he ddng luc tlu thuan tien, chinh xlc va dua dupe d c gili phap cd tinh khoa hpc va thi nhlm nang cao tinh an toln he ddng luc tlu, phan hd ddng luc tlu thlnh d c nhdm phan tu quy ddi vi phin td quy ddi (hay phan he va phln tii) phu hpp, theo nguyen tic mdi phan he cd tinh nang cu thi gdm cac phln tii cd lien he chat vdi vl mat kit d u , tinh nang vl nguyen ly boat ddng vl cd Inh hudng lln xly cac hu hdng Khi tiln hanh stra chiia hu hdng mdt hay mdt sd chi tilt cua phln tii nIo dd, thudng phai thao va xem xlt tinh trang ky thuat cac chi tilt khac cd phan tii, tuong ling stra chiia hu hdng cua phln tii nao dd thudng ciing phai xem xlt tinh trang ky thuat ciia cac phln tii khac phan bd Dua 130 Bang 1: CIc phln tii ttmg phan hi Cac phan tu cua phan h$ dpng ca chinh TT Ky hi?u I Phan h$ dgng ca chinh Ca cau piston - truyin - true khuy X, Ca cau phan phoi x^ Hd thong nhien lidu X3 H$ thong boi tron X, H^ thong lam mat Xs H^ thong ho trp dpng ca chinh Xe II Phan h^ hop sd Cum thuy luc hop sd Y, Cum ca hop sd Y2 III Phan h$ h$ true chan vjt Cac khop noi true z True chan vit Z2 6x3 true chan vjt Z3 Chan vjt Z4 True trung gian Z5 Ab true trung gian Ze kin nude duoi sau z Mdi quan he giiia d c phln tii tiing phan he la mdi quan he ciia d c phln tii dde lap vl ndi tilp Vi du trdn hinh la so dd d u tnic cua phan hd ddng CO chinh X6 X5 X4 X3 Hmh : So dd d u tnic aia phan hti x? Xl — ;a chinh NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG - >iOil KHOA HOC CbNG NGHE Tir so dd clu tnic he thdng va cac phan he neu tren day, cd thi xay dung dupe so dd clu tnic ciia he ddng luc tau tau danh ca Viet Nam nhu trdn hmh Z: z Y: Xo X4 X3 X, hu hdng ddi vdi he ddng lire tlu, sir dung ky hieu d c phan he cho hu hdng ciia chung da cu thi nhu sau : Su kien dinh I la hu hdng ciia he ddng luc tlu thiiy Su kien trung gian: gdm d c su kien trung gian ~ va cac su kien trung gian d p dudi - Cac su kien trung gian: Phan he true chan vit (7^, Z() Phan he hop sd (Y2, Yi) Phan he ddng co chinh 0^, Xi) Hinh 5: So dd d u tnic chung cua hd ddng luc tlu ifiZj ludi vay Binh Dinh Xay dung md hinh hd thdng (dy hu hdng) cay hu hdng la co sd dl phan tich va tinh xlc suit hu hdng ctia he thdng va phln tii he ttr dd chi khau ylu nhat dl dinh gia an toan va dl xuat giai phap nang cao an toan cho he thdng Do viec phan tich, lua chpn md hinh cay hu hdng phii hpp he thdng dang xet, dap ling ydu clu dat danh gia tinh an toan he thdng la rIt quan trpng va anh hudng din dd chinh xac kit qui Trong trudng hpp nay, ddi tupng nghien cuu II he ddng luc tlu ca ndn cac ylu td dimg phan tich la dac dilm kit clu, chiic nang boat ddng ciia d c phln tii va dilu kien lam viec thuc tl ciia chiing Tir so dd d u tnic he ddng luc cac tlu danh cl nhu md tl d hinh 3, cd the xlc dinh cac phln cay hu hdng ciia ddi tupng nghien ciru nhu sau: Gdc (sir kien dinh) II hu hdng cudi cung ciia he thdng khIo sat, tiic II d c hu hdng xly ddi vdi he ddng lire ciia cac tlu ludi vay, khai thac xa bd tai Binh Dinh X - hu hdng ciia phan he ddng co chinh; Y- hu hdng ciia phan he hop sd; Z - hu hdng ciia phan he he true chan vit - cac su kien trung gian d p dudi gdm cd: Xj (i = 1, , 6) - hu hdng phln tii thii i thude phan he X; Xi - hu hdng piston - truyin - true khiiy; X2 - hu hdng co d u phan phdi khi; X3 - hu hdng he tiidng nhien heu; X4 - hu hdng he thdng bdi tron; X5 - hu hdng he thdng lam mat; Xg - hu hdng he tiidng phuc vu may chinh; Yj (i = 1, 2) - hu hdng ciia phln tii thtr i; Yj - hu hdng ciia cum thiiy luc; Yj - hu hdng ciia cum co khi; Zj (i = 1, , 7) - hu hdng ciia phan tii thii i thupc phan he Z; Zi - hu hdng khdp ndi true; Z2 - hu hdng true chan vit; Z3 - hu hdng d true chan viti Z4 - hu hdng chan vit; Z5 - hu hdng true trung gian; Zg - hu hdng d true trung gian; Z7 - hu hdng cua d kin nude dudi tlu Su kien co bin Xjj (i = 1, , ;j = 1, , 8): hu hdng phln tii thir i ciia phan he X nguyen nhan thii j gay y,j(i = 1, ; j = 1, , 8):hu hdng phln tii thii i cua phan he Y nguyen nhan thii j gay Zjj (i = 1, , ; j = 1, , 8): hu hdng phln tii thii i ciia phan he Z nguyen nhan thii j gay Nhanh (su kien trung gian) II d c hu hdng nlm giiia hu hdng dinh vl cac hu hdng co ban, II hu hdng cila ba phan he cua he thdng gdm ddng co chinh, hop sd va he true chan vit Phan tich quan he logic ba su kien trung gian neu tren vdi d c su kien thlnh phln tilp theo se nhan dupe sir kien trung gian d p dudi, tiic hu hdng cac phan tii tiing phan he Ten gpi vl ky hieu d c phan he, cimg cac phln tii tiong he thdng dupe cho blng Nguyen nhan hdng duoc xac dinh nhu sau: j = la mdi trudng lam vide; j =2 la tac ddng co hpc j = la gil hda, hao mdn qua trinh sii dung; j = 4II sai thilt kl, chi tao, lip dat; j = la bio dudng khdng diing ky thuat; j = la Idi qua trinh khai thac, van hinh tlu; j = la lln siia tnrdc khdng dat chit lupng; j = la sii dung vupt nang thilt hi (qua tai) La (su kien co bin) la nguyen nhan diu tien gay hu hdng cac phln tii, la str kien khdng thi tilp tuc phan tich cac str kien d p dudi khac Trong tiirdng hpp dang nghien ciiu thi day chmh la nhiing hu hdng ciia cac phln tii theo nhiing nguydn nhan khac gay Dl don gian va thdng nhat each gpi qua tiinh phan tich xay dung md hmh cay Theo so d u tnic hd thdng nhan thly, hd ddng luc tlu danh d khIo sit hi hu hdng, ciing cd nghia II da xly nhiing hu hdng ciia it nhlt la mdt d c phan he cua he thdng nay, tiic la, su kien gdc I xay xult hien su kien nao dd su kien trung gian X, Y, Z ndn theo phuong phip cay hu hdng thi X, Y, Z II su kien vao ciia su kidn I ndi NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG - 2011 131 KHOA HOC CbNG NGHfe qua cdng logic OR, nen md hinh cay hu hdng cua sir kien gdc I vdi cac phan he da neu dupe md tl trdn hinh r c m ^ Hinh 6: Md hinh d y hu hdng ciia su kidn I vdi d c phanhd Phan tich mdi hen he logic ctia su kien X vdi d c su kien phln tilp theo se nhan dupe su kien trung gian d p dudi ciia nd la cac su kien X; Tuong ttr, Xj chinh la cac sir kien vao ciia su kien X theo so dd clu tnic vi chiing cd mdi quan he ndi tilp nen ndi vdi bdi cdng logic OR Tilp tuc lln theo diu vlt nguyen nhan hu hdng se tim dupe cac str kien d p dudi ciia su kien Xj Mdi mdt su kien Xj xly II it nhlt mdt nguyen nhan gay nen, tiic la da cd str xult hien ciia mdt cac str kien Xy nIo dd, vl day ciing chinh la cac str kidn co ban ciia cac su kidn Xj neu d tren Theo each xlc dinh mdi quan he da neu thi Xjj la su kien vao ctia cac su kien Xj vl chung duoc ndi vdi bdi cdng logic OR Phan he (nhanh) X ciia cay hu hdng dupe bilu diln d hinh Hmh 7: Mo hmh nhlnh X ciia h§ thdng (dyhuhdng) Tuong tu mdi quan he logic ciia su kien trung gian Y, Z vdi cac su kien thlnh phln nhu sau: CIc su kien Yi la su kien vIo cua str kien Y va yjj la su kien vIo ciia d c sir kien Yj dupe ndi vdi bdi d c cdng logic OR vl phan he Y ciia cay hu hdng bilu diln d hinh 8a CIc su kiln Zj la str ki|n vIo ciia su ki$n Z vk Zg II su kien vao ciia d c str ki^n Zj diu dupe ndi vdi bdi d c cdng logic OR vl phan he Z cua cay hu hdng bilu diln d hinh 8b (a) OR OR OR m Vu r1 Ii yij r1 yij Hinh 8: Md hmh nhlnh Y vl Z cua hd thdng ( d y hu hdng) Tdng hpp kit qui cac budc tiiuc hien tren se xay ^^^^^ cua hd ddng luc tlu dinh cl Vidt Nam nhu ti-dn dung dupe md hinh hd thdng (cay hu hdng) tdng ^"^" "• 132 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG T H O N - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG IQ] ] KHOA HOC CbNG NGHfe I OR ii.' X Y z OR OR OR \ t \ f {'I ^ - -7^ r ih- : - \ \ X, fl.':' ' Xd V' "~^ \^— Xjj T ••• U— - - v l -J yii J •• Xjj Xii • z, z OR OR OR OR OR OR rn V: V Vii Y,3 Zij Xij ^j i ] r-^ Zji 1 Zij Zij Hinh : Mdhinh d y [luhdiig tdng quat ciia hd ddng luc tlu dinh d Vift Nam he d dne lut: tau tron8- ti-udin? hop cu tilf ' ^ hdm IV 1ruAO LUAN Tir md hmh cay hu hdng da dupe xay dung duoc, kit hpp vdi nhiing sd lieu thdng kd thuc t l vl cac hu hdng ciia he ddng luc ddi vdi mdt chiing loai tau ca nhlt dinh vl khoing thdi gian cu thi, blng each tinh xac suit hu hdng su kien dinh (he ddng luc) va cac su kien nhanh (cac thlnh phln) cd t h i xac dinh dupe d c thdng sd dung danh gia dp tin cay nghien ciiu da sii dung md hinh cay hu hdng ndi trdn, k i t hpp vdi cac sd heu thdng ke thuc t l nam tir 2006 din 2008 vl tinh hinh hu hdng he ddng luc 115 tlu dinh c l ludi vay ciia tinh Binh Dinh cd str dung ddng co bd cil hieu Mitsubihi lam may chinh, da xac dinh thdi gian lam viec an toan, cudng dd hu hdng nhu blng Blng : Thdi gian llm vide trung binh an toan va cudng dO hu hdng d c p h i n hd cua hd ddng luc d c tlu ludi vay Binh Dinh Thdi gian lam vipc trung binh Cudng dp hdng "k Thii tir Kibieu Ddi tupng (ngay^) an toan To (ngay) X Hop sd 748,99 0,001335 He true chan vit 232,99 0,004292 Ddng CO chinh 108,98 0,009176 Nhu vay, ddi vdi hd ddng luc cac tlu khIo sit tiii ^^ ^^ ^ toln cao hon II 750 ngly Thdi gian hdi tiidi gian llm vide an toan tioing bmh cua dpng co P^tic d c phan he ciia he ddng luc tlu ludi vay dao khoang 109 ngay, hd tinic chan vit la 233 ngay, hop sd ^^ng tii 5,4 - 6,9 ( b l n g 3) Blng : Thdi gian hdi phuc v l cudng dd hdi phuc d c phan h | cua hd ddng luc d c tau ludi vay Bmh Dinh Cudng dp hdi phuc Thdi gian trung binh hdi phuc Tg Thii: tir Kibieu Ddi tupng (ngay) Pjj (ngay-') Y Ddng CO chinh 5,36 0,186663 He true chan vit 5,46 0,183021 Hdpsd 6,89 0,145069 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG - 2011 133 KHOA HOC CbNG NGHfe Xac suit hu hdng cac phan he ciia he ddng luc bao gdm hop sd va true chan vit I I I I kha tiilp, cdn cua ddng ca va he ddng luc tau la cao (bang 4) Blng : Xlc suit hu hdng ciia d c phan hd v l hd ddng luc d c tlu ludi vay Binh Dinh Xac suat hu hong (Q) Doi tupng TT Ki hieu Y Hop sd 0,031805 Z He true chan vit 0,096184 X Dpng ca chinh 0,193394 0,294163 He dong luc tau I Tren co sd xac xuat hu hdng ciia ba phan he gdm Ddng co, he true chan vit va hop sd cd t h i tinh dupe xac xult cua he ddng luc tlu ludi vay la I = 0,294163 Tir dd cd t h i giup xac dinh dupe thdi gian phuc hdi chinh xac cua he thdng ddng luc nhdm tlu ludi vay khIo sat V KFT LUAN Sir dung phuong phap phan tich cay hu hdng d l danh gia tinh an toan va muc dd tin cay ciia he thdng may ndi chung va he ddng luc tlu ca ndi rieng, da giup cho vide xac dinh nguyen nhan hu hdng mdt each chinh xac d l d l xult cac bien phip khic phuc hidu qui Nhd dd, khdng nhiing nang cao tinh an toan cua he ddng lire loai tni d c nguydn nhan dan den hu hdng (trir cac hu hdng bit thudng tic ddng cua dilu kien bdn ngoai khdng the ludng trude), ma cdn cho phep tilt kiem dupe chi phi vat lieu, trang thilt bi, tiidi gian bao hanh, siia chiia, v.v Da xac dinh dupe thdi gian lam viec an toan cua cac phan he thupc he thdng ddng luc tau ludi vay tai Binh Dinh vdi ddng co la 109 ngay, he true chan vit 233 va hop sd cd dp an toan cao hon, dat 749 Ddng thdi da xac dinh dupe thdi gian hdi phuc cac phln tu cua he thdng la 5,4 - 6,9 Xac suat hu hdng ciia toan he ddng luc la 0,294 Kit qua danh gia dp tin cay he ddng luc tau danh ca ap dung tai Binh Dinh da dupe cac doanh nghiep, nha quin ly dia phuong tilp thu, irng dung cho cac loai ddng luc ed hen quan khic TAIUEUTHAMKHAO Bao cao thdng kd tlu thuyin nghi ca Binh Dinh 2000 - 2008 Chi cue Bio vd Ngudn Ipi Thuy sin Binh Dinh Phan Van Khdi Co sd dinh gii dp tin cay Nha xult b i n Khoa hpc v l Ky thuat, H I Ndi, 1987 Jianwen Xiang Fault Tree Analysis and Engineering, Formal Metiiods for Requirements 2005 THE STUDY OF EVALUATING THE RELIABILITY OF VIETNAMESE FISHING BOATS POWER PLANT BY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS METHOD Tran Gia Thai Summary Most of the Vietnamese fishing vessels are made from wood by traditional experience, without design drawings with the ship main engine is very diverse in power and variety, including old automobile engines, generators Therefore, the study of evaluating the reliability of power plant of Vietnamese fishing vessels has role and significance The group researchs used the model of fault trees, combined with the actual statistics failure data of power plan of 115 purse seine fishing vessels in Binh Dinh province from 2006 to 2008 for building mathematical model of reliability evaluation of power plant of Vietnamese fishing vessels in general and by purse seine fishing vessels in Binh Dinh have used the old engine Mitsubishi Qapan) in particular The results show that, the safety working time of the modules in the power plant of purse seine fishing vessels in Binh Dinh province: engines is 109 days, propeller shaft is 233 days, the safety of gear is higher than the 749 days, the recovery time of elements in power plant is from 5.4 to 6.9 days, failure probability of power plant is 0.294 Keywords: Fault Pee, power plant, Mitsubishi, purse seine Sshing vessel.-, Ngudi phln bidn: GS.TSKH Pham van Lang 134 NONG NGHIEP VA PHAT TRIEN NONG THON - KY THANG 1+ KY THANG '' ^oi ... khic Do dd dl dam bio qua trinh tinh toan va danh gia an toln he ddng luc tlu thuan tien, chinh xlc va dua dupe d c gili phap cd tinh khoa hpc va thi nhlm nang cao tinh an toln he ddng luc tlu,... ndi trdn, k i t hpp vdi cac sd heu thdng ke thuc t l nam tir 2006 din 2008 vl tinh hinh hu hdng he ddng luc 115 tlu dinh c l ludi vay ciia tinh Binh Dinh cd str dung ddng co bd cil hieu Mitsubihi... CUU D$c dilm vl so dd clu tnic h | ddng lye tlu dinh cl Vi|t Nam Kit qui khIo sit thuc tl cho thly hd ddng luc da sd tlu cl Viet nam cd dac dilm chung gdm mdt ddng CO chinh bd tri d phln dudi