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;MH riA MIC DO TON THUONG TAI NGUYEN, MOI TRUONG Tcil VEN BIEN VIET NAM PHUC VU SU DUNG BEN VUNG TAI NGI YEN, BAO \ E MOI TRUONG VA T H I C H UNG VOI BII \ DOI KHI HAU, LAY vi DU CUA SONG HONG M.iTrnngNhtnln'", Ngu>cn Thj Uong llu^'"*, Luu Viet Dung*"', Tran Dang Quy l i o a n g VSn Tuan'-', Bii'i Thuy Trang*"', Pham Minh Quyen'"', Tran Thj Lua'"', Nf-uycn H» QuC-'"', Lc Thj Nga""', Nguyen Thuy Linh'"', Vu Thi Thu Thiiy''', Pham Thi Tuy^t'"', Nguyen Iloa liinh'^' "'Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha NOI 1-1-1 Xuan Thu\ Cau Giay I la Noi '^'Trung tam nghien cuu Bifin va Dao 144 Xuan fhuy, Ciiu Giay, HaNgi *^' Truong Dai hoc Khoa hoc Tu nhicn 334 Nguyfin Trai, Thanh Xuitn, Ha Noi ''^tuc Quan ly ch5t thai va Cai thicn moi iruong, So 11 lo 13 A Trung loa Cau Giay, I la Noi Email: nhuaniiil'a\'nu.edu.vn Tom tit: Cuu Sdng Hdng Id viing cd du dgng sinh lie>c cuo nhdl mien Bdc thudc khu die trie sinh quyen the gidi cd vai Ird quan irong bdo vc ldi nguyen, mdi irudng va phdl tnen kmh le - xu hdi, ddng tbdi cung Id ncri chiu dp luc lit cdc hoat ddng nhdn sinh vd anh hudng lieu cue biin ddi imu Sic dung cdc phdn mem ArcGis vu Expert Choice 11 de su ly sd lii'u , bdi bdo trinh bay ket cpid diinh gid ticb hc/p vd thdnh ldp bun mice dd Idn thuang ldi nguyen mdi irudng ciea Song Hong Dua trim ca ser ddnh gid lich hcrp mirc ton thuong ldi nguyen, mdl truimg mdt sd gidi phiip nhe'im su dung ben vitng tdi nguyen bdo ve mdi truong phdng tremh giam nhe thien lai vd thich iing viri hiiin ddi hdu vimg nghien cicu duac de xudt epiy hogch sir dung bin vung tin nguyen mdi iruirng giai phcip cpiun ly vu hao ve idl nguyen, mdi iruimg, gtai phiip gium thieu ihiet bai tai bien bien ddi hdu vd gidi phc'ip cdnh bdo gido due ndng cao nhcm thiec cgng ddng Kit cpid nghien cieu cd y nghia cpian Irong \dy elung chinh sdch chien luoc bao ve tui nguyen, mot Iruirng giam ihii'u thiel hgi leu bien vd thich ung vdt biiin ddi hdu din ven hien Hiji nghi Khim lit t i ii Cc'ing nglii' hiin loiin qiiik hi, ASSl-SSMENT 01- VULNIiRABIlJTY Of NA I l.'RAL RESOURCES AND l-WIRONMLN r 01- VII- i NAM COASTAL 20NL SERVING THE SUSTAINABLE I ;SE OF NATURAL RESOURCES E N V I R N M I - : N T A L PROTECTION, AM ADAPT/UION "10 CLIMATE CHANGE FOR INSTANCE OF Till-: RED RIVI R Mai Tronji Nhuan'", Nguyen Thi Ilong Hue''', Luu Viet Dung*'', Tran Dang Or ''', Hoang Van Tuan'", Bui Thuy Trang'"', Pham Minh Quyen'"', Tran Thi Lua' N-^ux en Ho Que'"', Le Thi Nga'"', Nguyen Thuy Linh'"', Vu Thi Thu hu>' Pham Thi Tujet'-', Ngujen Iloa Uinh'^' The Red River Moiilh 's Bio.sphere Reserve heis the highest couslul biodiversity in the Northern I'ielnam us \ell us p I uys un iinpuiluni role u, nuturul resources, socio - economic development, und protecting environmeni In receni years, sludy aiea has increased vulnerability by negutive hiimein aclivilies (eg agriculture, aquaculture Iransporlutton und indu.stry) und climate change Using ArcGIS and Expert Choice 11 software for eleilu processing, this article presents lbe results of vulnerahilily us.\essmenl mup of environment und nuturul resources Bused on vulnerubilily assessment of environment and naiiirul resources, several solutions aimed ut sustainable use of natural resources, environmenlul piotection eUsuster prevenlion und mitigution and udaplalion lo climuie change have been proposed such us planning for sustalnuhle u.se of environment and naturul resources, environmental protection, reusing awureness of community The research i-esulls could he used us scientific hastes for marking policies and sirategies to protect natural resources and envircmmeni miligaling hazards, adapting to climate chunge .MO DAU SLI dung ben \'ung (SDBV) tai nguyen la giai phap rat quan trpng dc bao \c moi ln' >ng (IJVMI) \ a thich ung \6i bifin d6i hau (BDKH) [3,7.9,19] Dicu dac biel -o y ngliTa lon doi \ a i \'iel Nam, la mot Irong nam nude bi ton Ihuong nghiem nh BDKH [5], dang day nhanh cong nghiep hoa hien dai boa tren co so su dung tai ngi' Cii lao dong \'a cae nguon iuc khac Danh gia mue ton Ihuong (MDF ) la mot hop : ' iii quan irong quy irinh xay dung mo hinh su dung ben vung lai nguyen [7], ihicl ug \'t'n BDKH 11."^.16 17 18| quan 1} ihicn Uii va quan l\ tong hgp doi ven bifin |251 an Inn cae danh gia MD'I"! duoe licp can ihco ba hap phan chinh' cac moi de dna U'IL 'iii hay duoc nhan dinh la cac yfiu to gay ton Ihuong; cac doi tuong bi ton ihuong hay sir i ly cam ciia cac doi lirgng truoc iiioi de dga lac dgng \a kha nang irng pho, phuc boi cF ng chju ihich ung ciia he thong tu nhien - \a hoi (duge ggi chung la kha niing I'mg ; >!• Trong do, kha nang ung eua he thong la nhan to quan trgng \'a duoc nhan dinb U lyl lich cue irong diinh gia MDTF [26J Mol so licp can cim nhan dinh kha nang irng ph la ^^^^^^^BidlyJtS^:±2tjM^ — — a r cia t6n thuang dicn hinh hi ciic nghien cuu ciia SOi'AC nhan dinh ton tiiuong " ' ' ° ' JU 4„g la hai mat cua mpt dSng liin 129] Voi each liCp can da nganh da " h « r c cac nghien ciru ton thirong da xa dang CO nhflng dong gop diing kc t]u>1, hs'iam thiC-u thiet hai tai biin, phiit IriC-n kinh \i - xi! hoi (KT - Xll), lam co so cho A \i aii moi trirong chiC-n lirgc va quy hoach KT - Xll hinh ciic chuong trinh uu -vc bao vi bao t6n tai neu>cn moi Iruong lliich irng voi UDKIl cung nhu thicl lap "hung cho quan 1> long hop dm bo nep can gjn vol muc ticu phiil trien ben % tmg Trai dai tren 200 km bo bifin doi vcn bicn Vict Nam diic Hung boi nguon tai ngU)C-n thicn nhien da dang va phong phii diSn hinh k'l liii nguyen dat ngiip nude (DNN cua song, voi cae he sinh thai lieu bicu nhu rung ngap mSn san ho, CO bicn diim phii bai trieu); tai nguyen vi the (vung unh \en bcr mui nho cira song); tai nguyi-n khoang san (diiu than, sa khoanc Mil heu \.i\ dung ) lii liem nang lan thiic da\ su phiit trii-n K 1" - XI I Tuy nhien, doi vcn bii-n lii noi bj ltm thirang cao tir cac tai bien mii dicn hinh la cite lai bien lien quan dc-n BDKH loan cau nhu biio, lu lul, nhiem man, dang cao muc nuac bicn K£l qua danh giii viing co ngu> ca bi ngiip Iheo kich ban diing cao muc nuac biiin Im clio IhSy: CO khoang 39% dicn lich viing dflng biing song Ciru Long co nguy CCT bi ngiip anh hudng true lii-p khoiing i5% so diin vii khoiing 1% dicn tich viing dimg biing Song liong CO nguy ca bi ngap, iinh hirong true licp khoiing 10% so diin [1| Trong do, tiii nguvii'n DNN dugc nhan djnh lit doi tugng bi ton thuang cao tlic dgng cua BDKl I, cu the; thay doi dien tich dam lily va ciic kenh lach anh hirang tcri su cu tru ciia dong thuc vat nhay cam voi nuac diing biio diing cao nurc nuoc bicn; thay diii noi o, niing suiil ciic viing DNN hay tiing ciic loai ngoai lai thay doi nhiet do/titng di) man,, [15] lion niia day cung la khu vuc chju nhieu sire ep cua ciic boat dgng nhiin sinh nhu gia tang diin so, toe do thj boa vii cong ngbicp hoa nhanh, phiit trien thdy sim at giiy nhicu tae dgng tieu cue cho tai nguyi;n moi trucmg lam suy giant chat lugng tiii nguyen moi trudng suy giam da dang sinh hgc Chinh vi vay SDBV tiu nguyen (diic bicl la tiii nguyen DNN) g doi vcn bicn eo y nghTa song doi vai bao tan da dang sinh hoc B\'M T vit thich ling vdi BDKH Thupc vcn bien dong bang Bae Bg, cita Song Ilong la bg phitn quan trgng ciia khu du trii sinh quyen the gigi vii co khu Ramsar Xuiin Thtiy - dau ticn ciia khu v uc Dong Nam A, CO vai ti-6 quan trpng bao l6n, du tru tai nguyen vii BVMT, phat triiin KT - XH khu vuc (hinh 1), Vimg LNN Xuiin Thiiy duoc biit den voi tinh da dang sinh hgc cao nhiit, niing sual sinh hpc lim nhiit mic-n BJc Vict Nam vii cung lii he sinh Ihiii nhiiy cam nhit Diiy la noi cu tni cua nhicu loai dgng v at hoang da vii cac loai chim quy hic-ni (s6 lugng cii thii eac loai chim co IhC- dat lai 30 - 40 ngan con) |8-10J Tai nguyen, miii truong cfla Song Hong dang dugc khai thac va su dung viin nhiC-u muc dich khac diC-n hinh la khai thac va nuiii ihfly san nong nghiep, du lich Tuy nhicn cac boat dgng khai thiic vtl su dung tai nguyen mdl truong chira hgp ly nhu su dung cac cong cu khai thiic thiiy san mang tinh huv diet (litoi mdt nhd, kich dien khai Ihiie giong nhd, ); chiu ihai lfl ciic HOI nghi Khoa hoc vii Cong nghe hien loeiii qui'ic lun iliu boat dgng nong nghiep, tieu thu cong nghiep, nuoi thiiy san [9] Hoat dgng kh;ii ihac va su dung tai nguyen nuoc cua cae dap thiiy dicn thugng luu cac song thugc he ih6nj Song Hong da va dang gay nhieu tac dgng ticu cue cho tai nguyen, moi Irudng khn vtrc nhu lam thay doi dong chay va can can tram tich ven bo, lam mat ngi cu trii, bai gi6nL> ba dc va suy giam nguon loi thiiy san ciia mgt so loai ca quy hiem a Song Hong [U,I3], Them vao do, viing chiu anh huong ciia cac tai bien lien quan den BDKH nhu xoi lo bo bien, bo song (Giao Hung, Giao An, Hong Tien), boi tu bien dgng luong lach (phiii \ain cira Ba Lat, Lu, Ngan, Mo), bao va dang cao muc nuoc bien (eac VUI.L, dSt thap ven bien, cae viing DNN) va nhiem moi trudng (6 nhiem dau, nguy eo nhiem moi truong boi kim loai, ) [8,9,21] Cac yen to trfin la nhan to gay ton thuang tai nguyfin moi truong, de dga su phat trien ben vimg khu vuc Vi the, bai bao trinh bay kel qua iv ucn eiru MDTT lai nguyen, moi truong lan dau ticn cho vimg cua Song Hong voi each it^i ean tong hgp, hen nganh, dac biet la danh gia kha nang ehong chiu, phue hoi eiia cae ht sinh thai tu nhien (rirng ngap man bai trieu, ) tae dong BDKH nham SDBV lai ngi •,cn, BVMT va thich iing vdi BDKH Qsiineio Hoing Sj IHinh 1: Vi tri khu vuc nghien ctru - cua Sdng Hdng I PHUOTSG PHAP NGHIEN CIJU L Tiep can vc su- dung ben virng tai nguyen Co nhicu each ticp ean vc SDBV tai nguyen ven bien [3,7,33], d6 SDB\ iai nguyen dua tren co sd danh gia MDTT giai quyet hai hoa ba van de cimg Iiic ia khai liiac sir dung tai nguyen ket hgp BVMT dap img nhu cau ciia the he hien tai nhung van bai in tai nguyen, moi trudng cho the he mai sau va thich ung duo'c vdi BDKH Ket qua danh gia va du bao MD TT la ca so khoa hoc cho vice thuc hicn \'a xa> dung auv hoaeh SDBV tai nguyen BVMT va phdng iranb giam nhe lai bifin \a ihich irng \di BDKH cGng nhu de xual giai phap quan ly va canh bao, giao due luyen truyfin nang cao nhan thirc va nang lire cgng dong, thue hicn da> du ba ngi dung ciia SDBV lai ngujen (hinh 2) Da\ ia each licp can dugc phat tnen va md rgng lir each liep can SDB\' lai nguyen dia chat dua vao danh gia MDTT [3.7] \iti liicaj llln lliiiiinji Khli nrin;>iin;!|>lii') •;lii liin Ihuimg CJC lai bicn l i m i|uaii dcii DDKII xoiUybab.in bill) ID Jul JJiig cuii iinrc mnvc bicn Oiiliiemmoiiiu-Kin; Cac iiiu 16 ciiiniiibiM lill biOii a L-jc Ihjnli Lui iib.iii sinh Jill Jl'vi\UlbiOll Mill (16 Ji)i \\icmg lun ibmniii Kbii iMiig I'my jibo ciiii he ibimj! I^i iibiCn - \a biii 'JL M D r r tRJ nauven, moi lru(')[it> doi vcn biC'ii fi Ou> iuwch s n u v Ouan K i a ban ii C anh bail, ^liio due n Jn^i c i o nhan Ihuc cong diing \C B V \ I I Ihich iJngMJi IHJKIl JL S D B V tat nguyen, BVtMT Ihich ung HUKJ1 Hinh 2- Cdch liip can SDB V tdi nguyen, B VMT thich icng vdi BDKH diri ven biin I 'let Nam trim ca sd ddnh gid MDTT ldi ngiiyi^n, mdi tru(}ng Phirong phap danh gia miic ton thu-ong lai nguyen, moi trudng Phuang phap danh gia MDTT tai ngu)'fin, moi trudng ap dung nghifin cuu na> duge ke thii'a tii' cac phuong phap va chi ticu danh gia MDTT ddi ven bifin eae tai bifin lien quan den BDKM nhu dang cao mue nude bien eiia Cue Dia chdt My [32], Uy ban Lien ehinh phu vi: BDKH [18] hay chi s6 tdn thuong ddi vcn bifin ciia Pethick, J.B and Crooks, S [28]; ton thuong mdi trudng (EVI) ciia SOPAC [29], lon thuong ciia he thong lu nhien - xa hdi cua NOAA [27] va ciia Cutler [14]; khung danh gia tdn thuong lai nguyfin tJNN BDKH [17]; tdn thuong ciia tai nguyen mdi Irudng ddi veu bicn eiia Mai Trgng Nhuan eiing cac cdng su bo sung, dicu chinh eho phii hop vdi difiu kifin Vicl Nam [2,3.6,7.23.241 H K Ih}i nghi Khou hoc vii Cong nghe hien loim t/"' MD'fT tai ngu>fin nicii trudng ddi ven bifin da dugc xa^ dung ibco ham sd: Vx.s, (aRx,y bPx,\| cC\,y,) dd' Vx,), la MDTT tai nguyen mdi irudng {Rxo'i) la niiic d nguy'hicm eae \Cm Id gay ldn thuong (duge danh gia bang su lieh bgp eac tai bicn ba lut xdi Id \a bdi lu vcn bd dang eao muc nude bien d nhiem mdi Irudng : (P.x,>j) l.i nii dddcM luong bi tdn ihuong \a (Cx,yj) la kha nang irng phd ciia be ihdng lu nhien - xn ho (x,;'j) la loa dd dia K' va a, b c la cae gia tri Irgng sd vc mirc quan trgng Cac chi nfi danh gia n\n ihuong dugc xac djiili trgng sd ihco phuong phap ma tran so sanh L.^ CU Saal\ Tliomal |30.311 \a phiin mfim Hxpcrt Choice 11 Qii\ irinh danh gia MD'f f Lii ngu)fin mdi tiudng dugc xay dung va xii' ly co sd du lifii bang phan mfim ArcGis 9,3 \a co' sir dung cac phep phan tich khdng gian nham linh loiii va lap duge tirng ban eib phan mirc dd_ nguy hifim lai bifin mai dd lugng hi ldn ihuang \a kha nang irng phd theo cacl^iifip can nfiu trfin IL \ ^ H ( ; i \ MUC DO TON THUONG T A I NGI \ KN, MOI T R U O V ; C L A SONG HONG Diinh gia miie nguy hicm tai bitn Cae \cu to gii) ldn thuang cua Song Hdng duoe xiic dinb gdm nhdm ebinh i) C ,,> U bifin* cae tai bien hfin quan dfin BDKH (xdi lo, bdi lu gay bifin ddng ludng lacIi, biio \.i I iul diing eao muc nude bien) \ a d nhiem mdi irudng - bang \'a ii) cac yeu td cudng ho tai bifin gdm nbdni eae >eu id tu nhifin (cac thiinh lao dia chat ven bien: bdn bim ciii ci \a da gde) \ a nhdm boat dpng nban sinh (nudi lidng ihiiy siin, ndng nghifip giao ihim \an lai thii cdng nghiep) Ngoai ra, mua Idn cd ihc liim thay doi man ciia cae dam luii Ihiiy san cd he thdng ddi luu nude khdng tdt Theo kicb ban phat thin trung binh, van cui the k\ 21 mirc tang nhicl dd trung binh niini cd ihfi ldi 2,8"C - 3.5"C d cac khu \uc nh thude Biic Trung Bd (luong iing theo kich ban niim 2009 \'a 2011) Nhiel dd tang se liii tang kha niing nhifim bfinh cua ibiiy san dac bicl lit irong cac eac dam nudi Nhu va> ci lai bifin \a hinh the Ihdi ticl cue doan ga\' ldn ihuong vung eira Sdng I ldng da dang lu: nhifiu so \di cira sdng Delaware, Hoa K\ (ehu yfiu diing cao muc nude bifin bao i nude dang bao mua va lij thay ddi man) [IS], Kel qua danh gia mirc ngu>' hiem tai bifin dii phan vimg nghien ciru vdi miic i nguy hifim lir thiip dfin eao Trong dd vimg cd miec dc) nguy hiim thcip chifim khoang 14 khu \'uc nghifin eiiu, gdm kbu vue dat lien n5ni sau bd bifin lir xn Hong Tien di Ddng Phong (hu\'fin Tifin Hai) Ird vao diil lifin I'iing cd miec dc) nguy hii'in tun binb vd luerng den cao chicm difin lieh ldn nhiil khoang 70% dicn lieb viing nghien cu phan bd d thi Iran Ticn llai thj Iran Ngd Ddng vii eae xa ven bien Hdng Thuan i 'i Nhiin (nao Than Titng cd mice ild nguy hiem cuo tai cua Sdng Hong cliifiin khoanu l(i dicn lieh M'mg nghien eim Difiu dang Iuu y lii eac lai bifin cd miic nguy hiiini kho gidng ddi vdi cac he sinh thai khac nhau: diing cao mue mrdc bifin la yfiu Id nu hiem nhat ddi \oi he sinh thai nude Ig edn diil ngiip nude nggt (vimg cira son" pbh' t lien) bi tac manb eua ca dang cao muc nude bifin nude diing biio, mua lu vii iha\ ^ dd man , r.iu ban Diul^£!^'^'i!J±£tlMB^ Kfit qua cho th,i) fiu ihfi cac viing cd mue dd nguy hifim luong ddi eao - eao la \ img cd , 4- ,gj ]„^^,i i;ao (bao diing eao muc nude bien d nhifim mdi Irudng), nhay cam cao \di "-' lai bifin hi LIH phdi bdi eac yeu td dia hinh (bang phang eao lliiip) dja ehiil (can dudii« bo Iil ilianli pb5n bd rdi he ibdng diil git>) thiiy van (he thdng sdng lach phiin hd dav) ^Li ihfi nci\ luong lu nhu cac kel qua danh gia mire nguy hifim Irong danh gia MDTT d ddl \cii hiL'H "lien ^'en - Hit Cdi [23] Phan 'fbifil - Hd Tram |6], \inh GJinli Rai [3] llaTifin-\'inh( ay Duong [4] Bung 1: Diu-' il'i'" ^''''^' '^'' l>'i" l^l^" ''!"• f'fc Sdng Hdng I" ^ Tai bicn Boi ty lain t)iLii cMni^ \ahng lach B3o va lu lul Dang cao Kich ban nuac dans5 0,5m Than 1)6 Doc liyi ben bo Song llonn, ocac vi !ri xuim \cu nhi/ Hoanh San, Giaolluni: C'u.Xn (NiimOinli) llonu Iicn (Thai Rinh) Phia N;iiii LU.I som; l!a l.al Lu, coa Ni^an, Mo Cac vung dat thap vcn bicn CO dia hinh kem iicii ihoai nuoc Viinu vcn bicn mirc niro'c bien Kich ban nuoc dang Im nhi£m moi truong (0 nhiem dau, \viu\ ca nhiem Pb irong nuoc; Pb Zn As, Hii PCR iroim iram licli) Vun'.; vcn bicn Khu vuc ven b6.\aNain "Ihinh, Nam i'hu Nam Thang Giao Xui'm, Giao An va kbu vuc lir 14 20ni nuac Cuonn Toe cao mnrnam (Giao An), mm'nam (Nam Thinh) Tiin sual Dicn han dung co sd dii' lieu phuc vu du bao \a ling phd vdi BDKH \a dieu ehinh eac boat ddng nhan sinh bat lgi cho da dang sinh hoc noi rifing tai nguyen va mdi iruimg ndi chung Bimg 2' De xudt mdt sd glut phdp SDB I' tut nguyen, BI 'MT ihich icng vc'n BDKH cuu Sdng Hong tren co so ddnh gid MDTT PhSo vUng MDTT Dia diem Cnc giai phap Viing cfi MDTT thap I'lian bo i;ac \i\ \n bicn liiiyeii TiC'ii H i i i : Vu Bang Rinh M i i i l i , Nnin Binh, D o n g Phong - K l i u \ O n k l i i c l i phai i r i c n cac mo h m h ivinii lc bi;n v u n g , niing nghiep sinli ihai, nuoi l i o n g i h i i y san sinh thin VungCO MDTT trung binh Cac \ a t u I l o n g luian den Giao l l a i , m o l phan ff \ a Giao A n ( l u i \ c n Giao T h u y ) - U u lien phai tnen cac m o hinh k i n h le ben vung va nuoi Irong t h u \ san sinh thai Viitig cfi MOTT (iro'ng (101 cao Dicn tich v i i n g gian t n e u v i i n g nghien cirii, i r u n g taiii huyen T i e n l l a i va Giao T h u y - A p dung cac mo hinh k i n h tc ben v u n g ' nuoi t r o n g i h u y san sinh thai, khai ihac thuy san ben v i r n g , phat t n e n c o n g nghiep sach - A p dung cac giai phap quan ly tai nguyen, m o i t r u o n g giao due ciJng dong vc chuc nang va gia Irj lin nguyen, m o i t r i r d n g (dSc biel la tai nsiUNcn D N N ) n o n g nghiep - A p d u n g cac giai phap quan ly lai nguyen, m o i t r u o n g theo quy ehe eua V u a n quae gia - K h o i phuc he sinh thai r i i n s nuap m3n Viing cfi M D T T cao Phan bo cac xa vcn bicn Giao Thicn Giao - A p d u n g cac giai phap quan ly tai nguyen, m o i t r u a n g giai phap thich irng v a i H D K I I , giao due c o n g d o n g ve chirc nang va gia t n tai nuu>en, m o i t r u a n g (dac bict la tin nauven D N N ) - A p dung cac giai phap quan !y, bao vc n g h i e m ng$t iy tin nguyen, m o i trucrng theo quy che ciia V u a n quoc gia A n , Giao Lac, Giao Xuan - T u y e n t r u \ c n va giao due c o n g dong ve chiic nang va gia I r i ciia va Giao Hai (huyen Giao tdi n g u j e n , nioi tru-ong Thiiy) Nam va Nam Huiig Tliinh Nam (huyen TiOn Hai) Phii - T n e n khai cac giai phap g i a m thiOu thiOt hai tai biOii lion quan den B D K H va nhiem m o i t r u o n g ( k h o i phuc m o r o n g dien Uch rirng ngap man) - X a y d u n g chicn luge, giai phap, hanh d p n g i h i c h i m g v a i BDKM IV KET L l AN I Mirc dp tdn thuang lai nguyfin, nidi Irudng cira Sdng Hdng dupe danh gia ibco ba hpp pnan: cac yeu td gay tdn thuang (cac lai bicn dicn hinh nhu xdi Id, bao, bdi tu bien Qong ludng laeh, dang cao mue nude bifin d nhiem mdi trudng va cac yeu td lu nhicn va nhan sinb cudng hda tai bifin); cac ddi tupng bj ton thuong (tiii nguyen DNN, c;ic cdng Hal ni>hi Khaa hae va Cang n^he bien taan qiiae tan Um V trinh nhan sinh, ) va kha nang ling ciia he Ihong lir nhicn - xa hoi (Irinh hpc \"iii, CO so y tk, he th6ng Ihong tin lien lac, cong trinh giam Ihieu tai bien, .) Ket qua danh gia IvlDTT tai nguyen, moi truong cira Song H6ng dugc chia cac vimg co muc dr lij thap d6n cao: Vimg co MDTT cao thuang la noi chiu lac dong manh eiia cac tai bicn lap trung dong dan eu va eac loai tai nguyen DNN co gia tri va ehue nang eao (cae xa \cii bien Giao Thicn, Giao An, Giao Lac, Giao Xuan va Giao Hai (huyen Giao Thiiy) va ;• am Thinh, Nam Hung, Nam Phu (huyen Ti6n Hai) eiing voi kha nang itng a mire Hung binh -tuong doi eao Viing co IVIDTT thap chu y6u la nhung noi it bj dc doa boi cin lai biSii, lai nguyen DNN kem phong phu, xa cae trung lam kinh tc va dan eu thua thoi (cac xa xa bijn eiia huyen Tien llai nhu Vu BJng Binh Minh, Nam Binh, Dong Phong); klia nang irng o mue trung binh dua theo trinh dan tri, CO so tiing phong chong lai bien Mol so giai phap sir dung bin vung tai nguyen, moi tructng va thich img voi BDI'CII dugc dh xudt dua tren eo sa danh gia MDTT lai nguyen, moi trucrng cua Song Hong, juan ly (tang eirong hicu lire eiia luat phap, chinh sach, quan ly dua vao cgng dong, quaji ly t6ng hgp dcri bcr, xay dung chien luoc, giai phap va hanh dong thich ung vol BDK.H) quy hoaeh SDBV tai nguyen, moi trutmg (iru tit;n phat tnen eac mo hinh kinh tc ben vung nhir nong nghiep, nuoi thiiy san va du lich sinh thai), eac giai phap giam thieu lai bicu va thich irng voi BDKH (khoi phuc va ma rgng dien tich rirng ngap man, xay dung cac eong trinh bao vc bo bicn, chong xoi Icr xay dung cac tram quan triie va giam sat tin ngii.cn DNN) Kel qua nghien cuu cho viing eira Song Hong ma eo the ap dung cho cac viing ciia song ven bien Viet Nam nhu la CO so quan trgng de cae nha quan ly dua chinh sich, chien luge thich irng voi BDKH, giam thieu tae dgng dg BDKH den tai nguyen, luoi trucmg doi ven bien va la eo sir khoa hgc cho danh gia mgi Iruong chien Iugc Lot ciim on De hoan dugc bai bao, tap the tac gia giri lai cam an su ho trg cua Du an "Dieu tra, danh gia MDTT tai nguyen, moi trudng, lugng thuy van Viet Nam, du bao Ihien tai, nhilm moi trutmg tai eac vting bien" va DS tai eo ban ma s5 105.09.82.09 TAI LIEU TIIAM KHAO Tdi lieu ttiing Viet Bg Tai nguyen va moi trucmg, Du thdo "Kich bdn BDKH vd nuirc biin ddng dm I iU Worn" (2011) Lc Thj Thu Hicn, Mai Trgng Nhuan, TrSn Van Y, "Ddnh gid tdn Ihuang phuc vu dw quy hoach vd qudn ly indi trudng (ldy vi du a Ihiinh phd Hdi Phong vd phu cdn) " I ap chi Cac Khoa hoc ve Trai dal, s6 (T.28), 2006, u I-IO Nguyen Thi H6ng Hue va nnk, "Ddnh gid mdc dg ldn Ihuimg ldi nguyen dui hill dinh hudng su dung bin vimg vinh Gdnh Rdi, tinh Bd Ria - I dng Tou " T-in rhi Dia ehat, loat A 56 312,5-6/2009, tr.10-23 ' '^ ' XiSubanDia_ly_£l£chdt2 Thai Thanh Lugm va nnk Danh gia muc dp tdn thumig he thdng lu nhien KT - XH vung bifin Ha Tien - Vinh Cay Duong (Kien Giang) Tap chi dia chat sd 310 (sd 12/2009) Ngan hang thfi gidi "Anh hudng cua muc nude bien ddng cr cue nude dang phdl Iriin Phdn tich vd so sdnh" (2007) Mai Trpng Nhuan Nguyen Thi Hong Hue Tran Dang Quy Nguyen Tai Tue, "Ddnh gid mirc de bj ldn thuang ddi ven bien Phan Thiet - Hd Trdm, Vii't Xam phuc vu phdt triin ben vicng" Tap chi khoa hpc Dai hpc Qudc gia Ha Ndi, sd (21), 2005 lr 6-16 Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk ^'-Nghien cieu de xudt md hinh, gtdi phdp sir dung ben vieng lai nguyen dta chdt ddi duyen lun (ldy vi du vimg Phan Thii't - Vimg Tdu " De tai dae biet cap Dai hoc Qude gia Ha Ndi QG.05.27 (2006) Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk Herp phdn "Dut ngcjp nuac ven bien Viel Nam " thudc du dn "Ngdn ngica xu hudng suy thodi mdi iruirng Bien Ddng vu vtnh Thui Lan " Nha xuat ban Dai hpc Qudc gia I la Ndi (2007) Mai Trong Nhuan \'a nnk Bdo cdo du dn "Dieu Ira, deinh gid, thdng ke, quy hogch cdc klm bdo ton ddt ngdp nuoc cd y ngliTu cpidc le, qudc gia" Luu IrU lai Tong cue Mdi irudng (2007) 10 Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk Bdo cdo die dn "Dieu ira ddnh gid linh hinh epiy hoach ke hogch sir dung ddt ngdp nuac ven bien vd de xudl phuang huang cpiy hoach sir dung nhdm bdo ve mdi trudng vd phemg chong thiin leu " Luu tri> tai Tdng cue Mdi Irudng (2008) 11 Mai Trpng Nhuan va nnk "Dieu Ira, ddnh gid tdi nguyen mdi truang cdc vung vtnh trgng diem ven ba phuc vu phdt trien kinh li - xd hgi vd bdo ve mdi Iruang " Dc lai dgc lap cap Nha nude KC 09.05/06-10 (2009) 12 Pham Quang San, "Dien bien long ddn luu Song Hdng 15 ndm vdn hdnh khai thdc nhd mdy thity dien Hod Binh" Tap ehi Cac Khoa hpe ve Trai dat, 26/4/2004 trang 520-531 13 Vifin Nghifin cuu nudi trdng thiiy san I Bao cao "Dieu tra nghien cicu hien trgng vd bien phdp bdo ve phuc hoi mdl so lodi cd hoang dd qui hiem cd nguy ca tuyet chung tren he thdng Sdng Hdng "(2000) Tdi lieu Tieng Anh 14 Cutter, SL "Vulnerahilily lo Environmental Hazards" Progress in Human Geography 20, 529 - 539 (1996) 15 Danielle Kreeger et al Climate Change and the Delaware Estuary- Three Case study on Vulnerabilily assessment and AdapleUion planning (2010) 16 Gomitz V.M ct al., "The development of a coastal risk assessment databaseVulnerability to sea level rise in the US Southeast" Journal of Coastal Research, special issue, 12, 327-338 (1994) I'- Habiba Gilay, C Max Finlayson Nick Davidson, A Framework for assessing the vulnerability of wetlands to chmate change Ramsar Technical Report No.5 (2011) lliu iiglii Kliaa hae vit Cimg n^he bien lijancliiael ''nc r 18 IPCC, ããImpacts, Ulaptation and Vulnerahilily Cuntrihiilion ô/ IVorking Groin ll to the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Cha ,i;c" Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976p (2007) 19 IPCC, Proceeding "IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Source.^ l."l'eck, Gcrmanv (2008) 20 Klein R J'T "Cna.Klal Vulnerability, resilience and adaptation lo diinate chun, A„ interdisciplinary perspective" PhD thesis, 133p(2002) 21 Mai Trong Nhuan ct al., "Characterization gnd mitigation of Vietnam coastal hir.inis for su.slauiahle development" Symposium on linvironmcnlal science and ti;chn logy for sustainable de\'clopmenl of coaslal and urban area, Danang, Vietnam, Scplinibcr 27-29111 (2007) 22 \1JI Vrong Nhuan et al., -The Vietnamese Wetlands Classification System " Jour ii,il of • Science Earlh Sciences 24 (2008) 96-103 23 Mai Trong Nhuan et al., "Vulnerability assessment of rielnamese coastal ha\ •• and gulfs tot sustainable u.se in environment and natural resources planning- A case sludy in the Tien Yijn - Hd Cot Gulf (Quang A'/n/i Province) " Journal ofGcology, 34 ;'O09 24 Mai Trong Nhuan et al, •Vls.SM.vmen/ of Vieinam Coaslal Wetland Vulnerahiliit for Sustainable Use (Case Study in Xuantlniy Rgmsar Site, Vietnam)" Journal ef Wetlands Ecology, vol pp 1-16 (2009), 25 Mcl-addcn, L., "The development qf an intergrated basis for coastal :om monggemenl with application la Ihe easlern coast oJ Xorlhern Island" Unpublished doctoral thesis Queen's University, Belfast (2001) 26 McFadden 1, et al., "Managing Coaslal \iilneiability", Elsevier Ltd ISBN' 0-08044703-1 (2007) 27 NOAA, "Community Vulnerahilily As,sessment Tool CD - ROOM" NOAA Coaslal Services Center (1999) 28 Pethick, J B and Crooks, S, ""Development of a coasted vulnerability indes- A geomorphological perspective" Environmental Conservation, 27(4), 359-367 (2OO0) 29 SCJPAC, Environmenial vulnerability index (EVI) to summarize naliiincil environmental vulnerahilily profile (1999) 30 Thomas L Saaty, "The Analytic Hierarchy Process: planning Priority selling, resource ollocation, McGraw-Hill, New York" (1980) 31 Thomas L Saaty, "Decision aiding: decision - making svilh the AHP- why i ihe principal eigenvector neces.sary", European Journal of Operational Research (No 145), pp 85-91 (2003) 32 USGS "Coastal Vulnerglf.lity Assessment of National Park Units lo Sea-Level A'l.sc" (2005) 33 Slichting Natuur cn Milieu, H.Muilerman H.BIonk, "Tmrards a sustainable e of natural resources " (2001) ... vcn bicn Khu vuc ven b6.\aNain "Ihinh, Nam i''hu Nam Thang Giao Xui''m, Giao An va kbu vuc lir 14 20ni nuac Cuonn Toe cao mnrnam (Giao An), mm ''nam (Nam Thinh) Tiin sual Dicn han
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