Hoi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau khi Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21'''' CAC GIAI PHAP sCr DUNG KHI DONG HANH 0 DONG NAM A J V \Nagner Flour Daniel Canada, Inc R S Cone Flour Daniel Houston TOM TAT Cd raf nhi[.]
Hoi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' CAC GIAI PHAP sCr DUNG KHI DONG HANH DONG NAM A J.V \Nagner Flour Daniel Canada, Inc R.S Cone Flour Daniel Houston TOM TAT Cd raf nhieu phuang an phat then Nganh Dau a Ddng Nam A theo dieu kien heng ciia tung nai vung Hau het cae khu vue viing deu cd mot diem chung la nhieu khi, ca ddng hanh lan cac ngudn khd Trudc day phan Idn tim thay a tuang ddi gan bd, dugc van chuyen tgi cae diem che bien a tren bg bang dudng dng dudi bien NhUng vi du dien hinh la du an dudng dng Tay Nam a Viet Nam, cac du an sir dung a Ddng ban dao Malaysia, du an LNG Bontang a Ddng Kalimantan va cac du an ciia Shell a Tay Bae nude Uc va nhieu vi du khae nua Gidng nhu cac nai khae tren the giOi, viec tham dd dau a vung Ddng Nam A dang tien dan vung nude sau xa bd han hoae xa cac tang ca sa san cd tren bd cung nhu ngoai khai Khi tim dugc cac hoat ddng phan Idn thudc loai "bd quen" hoae "qua xa xdi" Viec phat then cac md loai da dugc chu y vai nam qua nham tranh viec ddt va bam trd lai mo Cd giai phap sir dung xa bd thugng dugc xem xet danh gia phuang phap kinh te nhat Vi a Ddng Nam A phan ign xa bg duac tim thay ngoai khai nen bao cao se xem xet giai phap tren ca sd sir dung kho noi ngoai khai (FPSO), dd la: Hoa long thien nhien (LNG) - Nen thien nhien (CNG) Chuyen hoa chat long (GTL) San xuat metanol (MeOH) San xuat dien (Dien) Viee danh gia va xep hang tuong doi cac giai phap dua tren ket qua danh gia ve mat ky thuat va kinh te ciia mdi giai phap vdi cung mot gia thiet ve dia diem du an va cac dieu kien gia ca thi trudng Cac thdng tin da cdng bd va cac so lieu ndi bd ciia Fluor Daniel se dugc sir dung de thiet lap cd sa du lieu COSdoANHGiA Tat ca cae giai phap sd dung khf ddng hanh bai dugc danh gia dga tren ca sd mdt kho ndi ehua dau FPSO Cac phan tich dau dien hinh dugc dting nhu mot ea sd FPSO la mdt tau ehua bang thep ed he thd'ng neo vdi sdc ehda 850.000 thting _ Cae thdng sd san xuat cho trudng hgp ea sd cd the dugc tdm tat nhu sau: Cdng suat thap dn djnh dau thd: 125.000 thting/ngay Ty le khi/dau: 680ft2/thung Nhu cau nude bam: 240.000 thting/ngay Cdng suat Gaslift: 124 trieu ft^/ngay 213 Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' 65,8 trieu ft%gay Bam khf trd lai: Dudi day la mdt sa dd khdi minh hoa eae edng doan che bie'n chfnh eho trudng hgp ca sd (chi phuc vu cho khai thac dau thd): Tach khf/long giai doan Nen ik ik Tach khf/long giai doan Gie'ng san xuat He thong nhien lieu Tach khi/long giai doan Dau tho Gie'ng bam lai 125.000 thting/ngay 65,8 trieu ft^gay 22,97 MW Khi bam la loai tuang ddi giau C3 va nang han tu nhien Idng Sau danh gia sa bd eho thay, ddi vdi cae phuang an sd dung khi, nd ed fch Igi viec thu hdi LPG va condensat trudc giam the tich hoae chuyen hoa Bang dudi day cung cap cac sd lieu kiem tra ddi vdi khf cua trudng hgp ea sd va khf ngheo trugng hgp condensat va LPG dugc thu hdi So lieu kiem tra bdm trd lai Thanh phan (% the tich, kho) N2 CO2 Ci C2 C3 i-c, n-C4 i-Cs n-Cs c, c; Luu lugng Trgng lugng phan tu GHV Nhiet dd Ap suat 214 Trirdng hdp cd sd 0,23 1,25 74,71 9,34 8,22 1,22 3,10 0,77 0,85 0,29 0,02 65,8 MMSCFD 22,97 1346,5 BTU/SCF 85''C(121'^) 5.000 Psig Trirdng hdp thu hoi LPG (trirdng hdp lira chon) 0,27 1,46 86,91 10,87 0,37 0,05 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 56,6 MMSCFD 18,11 1083,22 n/a n/a Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' CAC GIAI PHAP SCr DLJNG OLfOC Ll/A CHON Nhung giai phap sd dung khf sau day da duge xem xet va danh gia dga tren cac thdng sd kinh te va ky thuat Khi thien nhien hoa Idng (LNG) - Khf thien nhien nen (CNG) San xuat dau tdng hgp bang chuyen hoa chat Idng (GTL) - San xuat metanol (MeOH) Phat dien Oe dap ung eae thdng sd nhiet nang cua (1,090 GHV), lugng LPG san xuat ddng thd phai dat 5.500 thting/ngay Khi san xuat 5.500 thting/ngay LPG, khoang 800 thting/ngay condensat se dugc san xuat va trdn vdi dau thd da dugc dn djnh Oe ed ea sd danh gia chung, viec san xuat ddng thdi LPG va condensat phai dugc xem xet vd ea giai phap Lgi nhuan eua ea hai san pham duge dua vao tinh toan kinh te Sau tach LPG, lugng khf dua vao che bien dugc xac djnh la 56,6 trieu ft^/ngay (MW18.11) Vdi eae ty le chuyen ddi khf dudi day, hieu suat san xuat sd dung eho danh gia kinh te va ky thuat dugc tinh toan nhu sau: Ty le chuyen doi San xuat CNG 0,5% dung lam nhien lieu 56,3 trieu ft^/ngay LNG 3,5 trieu BTU/thUng 0,33 trieu tan/nam (41,4 trieu ft^/ngay) Dau tdng hgp 10.000 ft=/thting 5.650 thting/ngay Metanol 30 trieu BTU/tan 2.050 tan/ngay Dien nang 8.124 BTU/KWh 314 MW Tdng quan eae giai phap va hieu suat san xuat tuang dng duge the hien hinh dudi day: C3/C4, 5.500 tan/ngay Khf giau — 68,5 trieu ft^/ngay Thu hdi NGL Condensate, 800 tan/ngay Khi sach 56,6 trieu ft^/ngay 2050 tan/ngay 41,4 trieu ft^/ngay 5650 tan/ngay 56,3 trieu ft /ngay 215 Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' OANH GIA KINH TE VA KY THUAT Mtrc hoan thien cong nghe TU quan diem cdng nghe, ea LNG va metanol ed the coi la cdng nghe hoan chinh Cd the thay neu chgn mdt md hinh hgp ly hoae phat trien tdi khoang 2,5 trieu tan/nam hoae ign han thi dd se la mdt dg an san xuat LNG ndi dau tien Mac du hien gia metanol thap nhung no van duac coi la cdng nghe chuyen hoa hang dau d ngoai khd hoae su dung cho ngheo Nhieu nha san xuat va thie't ke da tien hanh nghien cdu ap dung tren bien Cac cdng nghe san xuat tdng hgp cd the cdn cd nhieu tien trien va ed the d i n td giam gia va tang kha nang ap dung cho he thd'ng san xuat tren bien Cdng nghe GTL dga tren qua trinh chuyen hoa FT va cd the xep nhu mdt edng nghe da dugc chung minh qua van hanh Van de dang quan tam la ham lugng sap cao cua dau tdng hgp FT San pham FT ndi chung phai can tdi cac qua trinh che bien bang hydro de diem ddng Sd dung cac xuc tac mach ngan hoae ket hgp vd tdng hap FT eting cae bude che bien bang hydro cd le la nhung thach thde ky thuat ddi vd edng nghe thdi gian tdi, Mdt van de nua dat ddi vdi sa dd cdng nghe GTL la phai tien tdi dat duge suat dau tu gidng nhu mdt nha may Igc dau truyen thdng tdc la khoang 15.000 USD/thung Mgi nd luc de giam chi phi se tap trung vao bude san xuat tdng hgp nhu ddi vdi cdng nghe metanol Cung can phai ndi them rang cae edng nghe san xuat GTL, LNG va metanol mdi chi ap dung thuang mai cho cac nha may tren dat lien Tuy nhien de ap dung eho mdi trudng ngoai khai va tren cac tau ehda thi nhat thiet phai ed nhung dieu chinh thich hgp Cdng nghe CNG tuang ddi dan gian Tat ca cac hang muc ca khf va an toan eho tau cung nhu toan bd cae bd phan lien quan deu da dugc thuang mai hoa Thgi gian tien hanh ddi vdi du an CNG dau tien ed le ngan han so vdi cdng nghe Cac hoat dgng chat tai va dd tai la cac qua trinh edng nghiep thdng thudng, vi vay dd la cae hang muc thiet ke ky thuat ehd khdng phai la edng nghe Hon nua, dga tren viec danh gia tat ca cae giai phap da neu, cdng nghe CNG ddi hdi vd'n dau tu ft nhat neu ket hgp vdi mdt FPSO san xuat dau da cd Sg dieu chinh quy djnh ve dien da tao nen ddng Ige tren toan the gidi va d khu vuc Ddng Nam A Cd the mdt tuang lai gan, san xuat dien ngoai khai se canh tranh vdi cac nha may san xuat dien tren dat lien Do cd cae uu viet ca ban ket hgp ehu trinh thiet ke, phat dien ngoai khai da dgge chap nhan mdt sd dg an d bien Bae Cung can nhg rang, so vd cae giai phap sd dung khf hoae chuyen ddi khae, eae nha may dien ngoai khd ed uu the la dan gian ve ky thuat va ap dung eae cdng nghe sin cd Cap truyen dudi bien ft chju anh hudng eua sau han dudng d'ng va khoang each truyen tai thuang mai tU 150km den 400km Cap dien cao the ngam cd the dugc lap dat va truyen tai an toan t d cdng suat 500MW Oanh gia thj trgdng a Dau tong hgp Dau tdng hgp sau hydrocraeking va isome hoa se cd chat lugng tdt han dau thd khai thae Viec pha trdn va chuyen ehd dau tdng hgp cting v d dau thd san xuat se dan gian hoa nhieu thao tac vi toan bd tang ca sd va phu trg deu da ed sa'n Tuy nhien dieu se tac dgng khdng tdt t d yeu td kinh te vi gia cao han so vd dau thd Dau tdng hgp se phai tach rieng va chuyen ehd rieng biet vd dau thd khai thac Kha nang thj trudng cua san pham dau tdng hgp khdng duge de cap bai vi khoang each so vd cac ea sd Ige dau va pha che la chap nhan duge Oe danh gia kinh te, gia dau tdng hgp dugc lay la 27 $/thung, gia 216 Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky2r dau thd hien khoang 25 $/thung Gia LPG va condensate cung dugc lay nhu ddi vdi gia dau thd Phf van chuyen den Singapore udc tfnh 1,6 $/thung b Khi thien nhien hoa long - San lugng LNG san xuat tren the gid hien khoang 80 trieu tan/nam Do kha nang chay sach nen nhu cau LNG tang kha nhanh d cac nude cdng nghiep hoa Nhu eau tuang lai cua cac thi trudng mdi ndi nhu Trung Qudc va An Do rat khd danh gia tai thd diem Sd dung thdng sd tieu thu nang lugng tren dau ngudi lam ca sd tfnh toan thi nhu eau nSng lugng cua cae nude dang kinh ngae Dieu dga tren danh gia ve tuang lai kha sang sua cua LNG tren toan the gidi thdi gian dai Tren quan diem nhu cau khf tang len va sg sin cd eua eae thie't bj tiep nhan LNG , ngud ta tfnh toan rang mdc 60 trieu ft^/ngay LNG cd the ban dugc tai cac thj trugng vting Oe danh gia ve kinh te, gia LNG phan phdi tdi cang tiep nhan d Dai loan duge gia djnh khoang 2,00 USD/trieu BTU c Khi thien nhien nen Tuang tg nhu LNG, thj trudng eho khf thien nhien nen kha dn djnh d vting Ddng Nam A Gia thiet rang CNG se duge ban cung mot khu vuc De danh gia ve kinh te, gia CNG phan phdi t d eae diem vdng 500 dam tinh td dja diem dg an la 2,50 USD/trieu BTU Trong trudng hgp gia trieu BTU eao han so vdi LNG thi bude tai khf hoa san pham CNG la khdng can thiet d Metanol Hien edng suat san xuat metanol tren the gidi khoang 26 trieu tan/nam Cdng suat khoang 2.000 tan/ngay nhu danh gia se bd sung khoang 3% san lugng the gidi hien Trien vgng ve tang trudng nhu eau metanol kha khiem ton Ly ehinh nhu sau: Thj trudng hoa chat da bao hoa (MTBE cd the khdng dugc sd dung) • Gia metanol khdng canh tranh so vdi gia nhien lieu (thi du cho phat dien) • Phat trien nhien lieu mot vai nam ed giam xud'ng Cae thj trudng tiem nang cua metanol Scin xuat ngoai khai Ddng Nam A la Singapore, f^at My (Los Angeles) San pham metanol cd the canh tranh duge vd gia san pham dugc san xuat vung Chi phi van hanh tuang duang vdi cae nha may metanol tai day Can luu y rang thj trudng metanol kha han che va neu san lugng vugt qua 2.000 tan/ngay thi thj trugng va gia san pham se bj anh hudng Vi vay mot hgp ddng tieu thu it nhat 70% san lugng phai duge thoa thuan trudc vdi mdt nha sd dung Vdi muc dfeh eua bao cao, Nhat Ban duge chgn lam diem phan phdi Gia metanol gia djnh khoang 100$/ta'n, chi phi van chuyen udc chUng khoang 1,60 $/ta'n/1.000 km e Dien luc Dieu ehinh quy djnh ve dien da tao nen mot ddng luc mdi va ed the tuang lai, san xuat dien ngoai khd se canh tranh vd cae nha may dien tren dat lien Nhu eau dien nang tang va cudc khung hoang ve cung cap dien nhurig nam gan day cting vdi su tang gia d Odng Bae My da chdng minh cho kha nang thj trudng cua san pham Gia dien duge gia djnh d mdc khiem tdn la 0,035$/KWh va bdi canh tiep tuc dieu chinh quy djnh ve dien thi trudng hgp se rat hap din ve kinh te 217 Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' Oanh gia ve kinh te Oe xep thd tg cac giai phap tren mot ca sd kinh te, ngudi ta chgn phuang phap thd gian hoan vdn trudc thue Thdi gian hoan vdn trudc thue dugc djnh nghla la ty sd giua vdn dau tu tang them so v d trudng hgp CO sd vd hieu sd gida doanh thu nam dau va chi phf van hanh cting chi phf van chuyen Trong pham vi cua bao eao nay, phuang phap la chap nhan duge vi muc dieh la de xep hang eae giai phap ehd khdng phai de ly giai eho cae giai phap Mdt phuong an tfnh toan khae de danh gia dg an la ty le thu hdi vdn ndi tai hoae NPV Cac phuang phap se can them mdt sd thdng sd bd sung (ty le vdn vay/vdn gdp, chuang trinh san xuat, dg bao gia san pham, lai suat vay, cac loai thue, v.v ) nhung khdng dem lai bat ky Igi fch nao cho bao cao Ddi vdi nhieu du an khu vuc, nhdng ket luan ed the thay ddi thudc vao cac thdng sd kinh te thuc te cfja mdi dja diem, Bang dudi day tdng hgp ca sd chi phf eho danh gia kinh te Cac ehi phf tfnh bang trieu USD Chi phi CNG LNG GTL MeOH Dien 0 0 Gia san pham 2,25$/tr BTU 2,0$/tr BTU 27$/thung 100$/ta'n 35$/MWh Hesd san xuat 56,3 trieu ft^/ngay 0,33 trieu tan/nam 5.650 thting/ngay 2.040 tan/ngay 314 MW Nai ban Singapore Dai Loan Singapore Nhat Viet Nam Khoang each 960 2400 960 4000 350 Vdn dau tu 58tr$ 500$/tan nam 40.000$/thung 130.000$/tan 314 tr$ Chi phi san xuat tr$/nam 0,5$/tr BTU 11$/thung 30$/ta'n 5% vdn dautu Phf van chuyen/1km 14tr$/nam 0,2$/tr BTU 1,6$/thting 1,6$/ta'n Khdng Nguyen lieu Can luu y rang cae thj trudng deu duge lua chgn dua tren ca sd eae dieu kien ve chinh trj va luat phap cua cac thj trudng dd Phan Idn eae dang ehi phf neu tren dua tren tai lieu nghien cdu hoae thdng tin da cdng bd Sd lieu kinh te duge lay td Cran & Stenning lien quan tdi giai phap thay the CNG, Han nda, mdt sd thdng tin ve chi phf phan anh kinh nghiem eua Fluor Daniel nhdng nghien cdu gan day, Tuy nhien nen nhd rang mgi chi phf lai dua mdt dg toan chi phi ign va se ehi dung bao eao nham xep hang tuang ddi cae giai phap da nghien cuu, Gia san pham d day la gia cudi nam 1999, Ngudi ta da sd dung cac ca sd chi phi tren de tinh toan thdi gian hoan vd'n eho tdng trudng hgp Su gia tang chi phi dau tu, doanh thu hang nam va thdi gian hoan vd'n cho tdng giai phap thay the sd dung khf ddng hanh dugc tdng ket bang dud day Cae chi phf tfnh bang USD vao thdi diem giua nam 1999 218 Hpi nghi KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' Chi phf Id! nhuan va thdi gian hoan vdn (ddn v j : USD) CNG LNG GTL MeOH Dien Thiet bj va phu trg 58 164 226 266 314 Phu trg cho LPG 25 25 25 25 Cai tao FPSO 25 35 70 70 35 Thu nhap -65 -70 -70 -70 -70 Tdng mdc tang vdn dau tu 43 129 251 291 304 Thu nhap td san pham 49 35 56 83 90 Thu nhap tu Condensat 5 5 Thu nhap tu LPG 32 32 32 32 32 Chi phi van hanh -5 -9 -24 -24 -16 Chi phi van chuyen -14 -16 -4 -10 Tdng thu nhap hang nam (nam van hanh dau tien) 67 45 65 86 111 Thdi gian hoan vd'n (nam) 0.6 2,9 3,9 3,4 2,8 Xep hang cac giai phap Cac giai phap da dugc xep hang tren ea sd danh gia ve ky thuat va kinh te, Cae tieu ehf danh gia sau day da duge sd dung vdi ty trgng ngang nhau: Cac yeu td kinh te Kha nang tieu thu san pham Mdc hoan thien eua cdng nghe Kha nang dng dung ngoai khd Mdi mdt yeu td dugc cham diem tg den vdi diem la tdt nhat Ket qua xep hang dugc tdm tat bang dudi day : CNG LNG GTL MeOH Dien C^e yeu td kinh te 3 Kha nang tieu thu san pham 5 Muc hoan thien cua cdng nghe 5 Kha nang gng dung ngoai khd 3 Tdng sd diem 19 18 15 14 18 Xep hang 219 Hpi nghj KHCN 2000 "Nganh Dau Viet Nam trifdc them theky 21' Theo ket qua danh gia tren thi cac phuang an LNG, CNG va san xuat dien ed the duge coi la cae giai phap tdt nhat Viec chuyen ddi thien nhien sang mot san pham khae giai doan hien dudng nhu khdng kinh te bd vdn dau tu cao (GTL) hoae thj trudng khdng hap din (MeOH) TOM TAT VA KET LUAN Dga tren tinh trang cdng nghe hien nay, gia ca chung va cae dae trung dja diem cua du an dugc gia djnh nghien cdu nay, ed the ket luan rang cac giai phap CNG, LNG va san xuat dien la cae giai phap sd dung ddng hanh tdt nhat thay the eho viec bam trd lai md Tren ea sd eae ehi tieu kinh te va yeu eau vdn dau tu ban dau thap han, giai phap CNG ed the se duge coi trgng han giai phap LNG Oieu hoan toan thgc te so sanh ca sd tang eua ca sd tiep nhan hai san pham Ca LNG va CNG deu la cae san pham Idng va deu cd the van chuyen den cac thj trudng da ed nhung sd lugng cae cang tiep nhan LNG hien cd nhd so vdi cua CNG Ngay ea dang cung bd sung ehd khdng phai canh tranh cung cap bdi nhieu dg an tiem tang khae vung nhu Natuna Su tang trudng ve nhu eau dien d Odng Nam A cung nhu su nd Idng cac qui djnh nganh dien se la mdt thuan Igi ign cho nganh san xuat dien tuang lai ThU tg eua giai phap GTL bj anh hudng bd suat dau tu tren thting san pham eao Tuy nhien, su phat trien eua edng nghe, giam ehi phi dau tu/thting va hy vgng sg dn dinh eua gia dau thd, tuang lai khdng xa giai phap ed the duge xem xet Lfu viet eua giai phap la ed the che bien duge dau tdng hgp ma nd cd the pha che vdi dau thd Vi vay se khdng can tang ea sd de xuat khau rieng san pham va giam dugc chi phf marketing Giai phap san xuat metanol hien dang gap phai khd khan Idn ve thi trudng va se chi dugc xem xet nhung trugng hgp dac biet Cung can chti y rang cae edng nghe GTL, LNG va metanol mdi ehi duge ap dung thuang mai tren dat lien Vi vay ngoai cac yeu td kinh te can phai ed su dieu ehinh ve cdng nghe ap dung cho cae du an ngoai khai Tdm lai, theo y kien tac gia, bat cd mdt giai phap sd dung khf ddng hanh nao duge de cap bai deu khdng lam anh hudng hoat ddng khai thae dau thd Cac giai phap deu dugc xem xet tren ca sd tinh kinh te cua viec khai thae dau thd Bat ed mdt giai phap sd dung nao cung deu phai can mdt lugng vdn dau tu Trong trudng hgp can phai sd dung ddng hanh, eae nha san xuat se cd cac giai phap ky thuat thi'ch hgp dem lai Igi ich kinh te Vdi su phong phti eua cac dg an sd dung khu vge Odng Nam A, bat cd giai phap nao cung ed the dugc sd dung Trong tuang lai khdng xa, dg an chuyen hoa hoae hoa Idng ngoai khd se trd hien thuc 220 ... ft^/ngay 0,33 trieu tan /nam 5.650 thting/ngay 2.040 tan/ngay 314 MW Nai ban Singapore Dai Loan Singapore Nhat Viet Nam Khoang each 960 2400 960 4000 350 Vdn dau tu 58tr$ 500$/tan nam 40.000$/thung... -24 -24 -16 Chi phi van chuyen -14 -16 -4 -10 Tdng thu nhap hang nam (nam van hanh dau tien) 67 45 65 86 111 Thdi gian hoan vd''n (nam) 0.6 2,9 3,9 3,4 2,8 Xep hang cac giai phap Cac giai phap da... nam 40.000$/thung 130.000$/tan 314 tr$ Chi phi san xuat tr$ /nam 0,5$/tr BTU 11$/thung 30$/ta''n 5% vdn dautu Phf van chuyen/1km 14tr$ /nam 0,2$/tr BTU 1,6$/thting 1,6$/ta''n Khdng Nguyen lieu Can