^ Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Viin Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam Hd Ndi 10/2010 DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA DSM DEN CAC CHI TIEU KINH TE KY T H U A T ciuA HE THONG CUNG CAP DIEN DO THI • • • • Nguyen[.]
^ Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Viin Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010 DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA DSM DEN CAC CHI TIEU KINH TE - KY T H U A T ciuA HE THONG CUNG CAP DIEN DO THI • • • • Nguyen Quang Ninh Vien Khoa hoc nang lugng Nha A9, sd 18 - Hoang Quoc Viet, Ciu Giiy, Ha Ndi Email: quangninh82vn(a),gmail.com Tom tat: Bdi viit ndy gidi thiiu bdi todn "Ddnh gid tdc ddng cita DSM (Demand Side Management- Qudn ly nhu cdu dien ndng) din cdc chi tieu kinh ti - ky thudt dp dung DSM Hi thdng cung cdp dien dd thi" vd kit qud dp dung tinh todn cho Hi thdng cung cdp diin dd thi cua thi xd Tuyen Quang, nhiing phdn tich, khuyen nghi ddi vdi cdc nhd qudn ly Thi xd Tuyin Quang vi viec dp dung cdc biin phdp DSM vdo HTCCDDT ciia Thi xd Tuyin Quang Abstract: This article introduces the mathematical problem of Evaluating effect of DSM (Demand Side Management) on economic-technical criteria when applying DSM in urban electricity providing system; calculated results when applying the problem into Tuyen Quang urban electricity providing system; and recommendations to Tuyen Quang town's authorities l.DATVANDE Muc tieu quan ly cdng tac dieu do, van hanh cho hieu qua, an toan, tiet kiem, va chii trgng nang cao chat lugng cung cap dien nang bang cac bien phap DSM da va dang dugc nganh dien va toan xa hdi quan tam, nghien ciiu va img dung Nghien ciiu Ddnh gid tdc ddng cita DSM den cdc chi tiiu kinh ti - ky thudt dp dung DSM He thdng cung cdp dien dd thi (HTCC DDT) cua thi xd Tuyin Quang se cung cap cac thdng tin can thiet giup cac co quan quan ly ciia thi xa Tuyen Quang ciing nhu Dien luc Tuyen Quang cd quyet dinh diing dan viec sir dung cac bien phap dieu chinh nhu cau dien nang, gdp phan quan trgng lam giam nhu cau dau tu them cac hang muc ludi dien mdi va nang cao chat lugng dien nang BAI TOAN DANH GIA TAC DONG CUA DSM DEN CAC CHI TIEU KT -KT CUA HTCCDDT DSM bao gom nhieu boat ddng Chinh phii ciing nhu nganh dien de xudng nham khuyen khich cac hd tieu thu tu nguyen thay doi each thiic sir dung dien cua bg ma khong can den nhung thoa hiep ve chat lugng dich vu ciing nhu su thoa man cua hd tieu thu Danh gia tac ddng ciia DSM doi vdi cac chi tieu kinh te- ky thuat ap dung DSM vao mdt ciu tnic HTCCDDT la phan tich sir thay ddi va hieu qua thay ddi cua cac chi tieu sau day theo sir thay ddi cua dd thi phu tai (DTPT) dien hinh dudi tac dong cua DSM [2-4]: Chi tiiu 1: Tdn thdt diin ndng HTCCDDT Chi tiiu 2: Sudt ddu tu cdng sudt ddt trung binh HTCCDDT 351 Tieu ban: Mdi tru&ng vd Ndng lugng ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7 Dua tren cac thay ddi cua ty le tdn that dien nang va suat dau tu cdng suat dat tmng binh se danh gia dugc sir thay ddi va hieu qua thay ddi cua suat chi phi cung cap dien nang tmng binh cua HTCCDDT dudi tac ddng ciia DSM De danh gia tac ddng cua DSM den cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat, bai toan sir dung phuong phap xay dung quan he giira sir bien ddi cua DTPT dien hinh van hanh dudi tac ddng cua DSM va cac chi tieu kinh t6 - ky thuat cua HTCCDDT tac gia Bach Quoc Khanh (2001) d6 xuat [1] Viec xay dung quan he chinh la xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat dua tren DTPT van hanh dien hinh bien ddi dudi tac ddng cua DSM Quan he dugc xay dung tren: - Md phdng sir bien ddi cua DTPT dudi tac ddng ciia DSM - Phuong phap xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat ciia HTCCDDT dua tren cau tnic HTCCDDT thuc te, thdng ke cac sd lieu ve thdng sd cau tnic va tinh toan cac che van hanh cua HTCCDDT Tir dd, xac dinh cac chi tieu kinh te - ky thuat chinh xac cho HTCCDDT dang xet timg che nhat dinh Cd the tdm tat cac budc thuc hien bai toan nhu sau: 2.1 Danh gia tac dong cua DSM d£n t6n that dien nang HTCCDDT - Budc 1: Thu thap sd lieu DTPT dien hmh van hanh cua HTCCDDT can nghien ciiu - Buac 2: Bien ddi dang tri DTPT ve dang DTPT thdi gian keo dai doan tuySn tinh va md phdng bien ddi ciia DTPT thdi gian keo dai theo lugng giam cdng suit dinh 5Pmax va lugng giam dien nang dinh AAd - Budc 3: Tinh toan he sd tdn that cdng suat dua tren cac thdng sd dac trung cua doi tugng HTCCDDT can nghien ciin - Budc 4: Dua tren ham tdn that va DTPT thdi gian keo dai, xay dimg quan he giiia t6n that dien riang vdi cac dac tnmg tac ddng cua DSM, va kk luan sir tac ddng cua DSM den tdn that dien nang HTCCDDT - Budc 5: Tinh toan ty le thay ddi tdn that dien nang theo giam cdng suit dinh va giam dien nang dinh cua DTPT K6t luan hieu qua thay ddi tdn thit dien nang HTCCDDT dudi tac ddng cua DSM 2.2 Danh gia tac dong cua DSM den cac chi tieu kinh te-ky thuat cua HTCCDDT - Budc 1: Thu thap sd lieu DTPT diin hinh cua ddi tugng HTCCDDT cin nghien ciiu - Buoc 2: BiSn ddi ding tri DTPT \k dang DTPT thdi gian keo dai hai doan tuygn tinh va md phdng tac ddng cua DSM theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM - Budc 3: Tinh toan cac chi tieu kinh te-ky thuat va tinh toan cac he sd tdn thit cdng suit cua HTCCDDT khdng xet den tac ddng ciia DSM - Budc 4: Tinh toan tdn thit dien nang HTCCDDT va tinh chi phi tdn thit dien nang HTCCDDT theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM - Buoc 5: Tinh toan suat dau tu cdng suat dat CPtb' Tinh toan chi phi diu tu hang nam cua HTCCDDT va chi phi tiet kiem dugc nhd hoan diu tu cdng suit dat theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM - Budc 6: Tinh toan chi phi cung cap dien nang hang nam, suit chi phi cung cip dien nang hang nam CEtb' theo cac dac tnmg tac ddng cua DSM K^t luan tac ddng ciia DSM thdng qua cac thi ket qua 352 //p/ nghi Khoa hgc ky nijm 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghi Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010 Ap dung bai toan Ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM ddi vdi cdc chi tieu kinh ti- ky thudt dp dung DSM vdo cdu true HTCCDDT cho ludi dien Thi xa tinh Tuyen Quang, theo cac budc tinh toan d tren, nhan dugc ket qua nhu bang Bdng I: Kit qud tinh todn ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM din tdn thdt diin ndng ngdy (AA) ciia ludi diin phdn phdi thi xd Tuyen Quang tsPmax [kW] Pmax' [kW] Tmax' [Gia] Td [Gid] dAd [kWh] 0,00 8931,00 0,78 69,57 8861,43 1,13 1,10 65,48 139,14 8791,86 1,49 1,45 8722,29 1,85 278,29 8652,71 AAd [kWh] AA [kWh] 3i [kWh] rp [10-'] - - 65,48 5563,47 0,59 0,008 0,90 89,62 155,10 5562,67 0,80 0,011 0,89 1,81 114,45 269,55 5561,67 1,01 0,014 0,88 2,23 2,17 139,99 409,55 5560,45 1,21 0,017 0,87 347,86 8583,14 2,62 2,55 166,28 575,82 5559,03 1,42 0,020 0,85 8513,57 3,02 2,94 193,33 769,15 5557,41 1,63 0,023 0,84 487,00 8444,00 3,43 3,34 221,20 990,35 5555,57 1,83 0,026 0,83 556,57 8374,43 3,86 3,75 249,91 1240,26 5553,53 2,04 0,029 0,82 626,14 8304,86 4,30 4,17 279,51 1519,77 5551,28 2,25 0,032 0,80 8235,29 4,75 4,61 310,03 1829,80 5548,83 2,46 0,035 0,79 765,29 8165,71 5,22 5,06 341,53 2171,32 5546,17 2,66 0,038 0,78 834,86 8096,14 5,71 5,53 374,04 2545,36 5543,30 2,87 0,041 0,77 8026,57 6,21 6,01 407,62 2952,98 5540,22 3,08 0,044 0,75 974,00 7957,00 6,73 6,51 442,32 3395,31 5536,94 3,28 0,047 0,74 1043,57 7887,43 7,26 7,02 478,21 3873,51 5533,44 3,49 0,050 0,73 1113,14 7817,86 7,82 7,55 515,33 4388,84 5529,75 3,70 0,053 0,72 7748,29 8,39 8,10 553,76 4942,60 5525,84 3,91 0,056 0,71 1252,29 7678,71 8,99 8,67 593,56 5536,17 5521,73 4,11 0,059 0,69 1321,86 7609,14 9,60 9,26 634,82 6170,99 5517,41 4,32 0,062 0,68 208,71 417,43 695,71 904,43 1182,71 5564,06 - 353 ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7 Tieu ban: Mdi trudng vd Ndng lugng APmax [kW] Pmax' [kW] Tmax' [Gio] Td [Gio] 7539,57 10,25 1461,00 7470,00 AA [kWh] m dAd [kWh] AAd [kWh] 9,87 677,61 6848,60 5512,88 4,53 0,065 0,67 10,91 10,51 722,01 7570,61 5508,15 4,73 0,068 0,66 1530,57 7400,43 11,61 11,17 768,13 8338,74 5503,21 4,94 0,071 0,64 1600,14 7330,86 12,33 11,85 816,06 9154,81 5498,06 5,15 0,074 0,63 1669,71 7261,29 13,08 12,56 865,92 10020,73 5492,70 5,36 0,077 0,62- 1739,29 7191,71 13,86 13,31 917,81 10938,54 5487,14 5,56 0,080 0,61 1808,86 7122,14 14,68 14,08 971,88 11910,42 5481,37 5,77 0,083 0,59 1878,43 7052,57 15,53 14,88 1028,25 12938,67 5475,39 5,98 0,086 0,58 1948,00 6983,00 16,42 15,72 1087,08 14025,75 0,089 0,57 2017,57 6913,43 17,36 16,59 1148,53 15174,27 5462,82 6,39 0,092 0,56 2087,14 6843,86 18,33 17,51 1212,78 16387,05 5456,22 6,60 0,095 0,54 2156,71 6774,29 19,36 18,47 1280,03 17667,08 5449,42 6,81 0,098 0,53 2226,29 6704,71 20,43 19,47 1350,49 19017,58 5442,40 7,01 0,101 0,52 2295,86 6635,14 21,56 20,52 1424,40 20441,98 5435,18 7,22 0,104 0,51 2365,43 6565,57 22,75 21,62 1502,02 21944,00 5427,76 7,43 0,107 0,49 2435,00 6496,00 24,00 22,78 1583,63 23527,63 8,06 0,116 0,51 1391,43 5469,21 5419,69 [kWh] 6,18 rp [10-'] Tir ket qua Bang ta nit cac danh gia sau: + Sir thay ddi cua tdn that dien nang cua ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang dudi tac ddng cua DSM: - Khi khdng cd tac ddng cua DSM, tdn that dien nang ldn nhit AAngay = 5564,06 kWh/ngay - 354 Khi cd tac ddng cua DSM, 6Pmax hoac AAd tang, tdn thit dien nang AAngay giam va dat cue tiiu bing 5419,69kWh/ngay DTPT dugc san phing (SP^ax = Pmax-Ptb)- Ty le giam tdn that dien nang ldn nhat 2,7%o so vdi khdng cd DSM Ty le giam khdng ldn DTPT thuc te ciia ludi dien phan phoi thi xa Tuyen Quang khdng cd tin so bien ddng cao, nhap nhd khdng nhieu Neu dd thi phu tai cang bing phing thi ty le tren day cang nhd Hdi nghi Khoa hgc ky niem 35 ndm Vien Khoa hgc vd Cdng nghe Viet Nam - Hd Ndi 10/2010 + Hieu qua thay ddi ton that dien nang cua ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang dudi tac ddng ciia DSM: - Ty le giam tdn that dien nang giam cdng suat dinh kW (rp) tang din 5Pmax tang, tinh toan tren gia tri rp = 0,116 6Pmax = 2435 kW - Ty le giam tdn that dien nang giam dien nang dinh IkWh (rA) giam din SPmax tang Hieu qua thay ddi tdn that dien nang nhu tren la sir thay doi lugng giam tdn thit dien nang dinh va lugng tang tdn that thap diem theo cac dac tnmg cua DSM - Tir ket qua danh gia hieu qua giam ton that dien nang cho thay giam ton thit la su dich chuyen cua dien nang dinh nen danh gia hieu qua giam ton that se thich hgp hon neu dua vao dac trung tdng lugng giam dien nang dinh Rd rang sir bien ddi nhanh hay cham cua dinh DTPT da lam cho bieu qua giam tdn that dien nang giam dien nang dinh kWb giam dan DTPT cang bang phang - Hieu qua giam tdn that dien nang tren day chi la ddi vdi sir thay ddi ciia cac dac trung cho tac ddng cua DSM (5Pmax va AAd), chua phai la hieu qua danh gia kinh te Sir thay ddi DTPT tuong ung vdi 5Pmax va AAd chi la he qua tac ddng ap dung DSM Ciing vi the ma chi phi cho DSM la bam sd cua 6Pmax va AAd Sir thay ddi ciia chi phi cho DSM theo 6Pmax va AAd chi dugc xac dinh dieu kien cu the Hieu qua kinh te chi dugc danh gia chinh xac so sanh chi phi cho DSM va cac Igi ich thu dugc dd cd Igi ich giam tdn that dien nang Ket qua tinh toan danh gia tac ddng ciia DSM den suat dau tu cho thay [3]: - Suat dau tu cdng suat dat ciia HTCCDDT thuoc ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quanc giam tang 5Pmax va AAd Quan he suat dau tu cdng suat dat Cptb' theo 6Pmax la tuyen tinh Do dd, hieu qua giam suat dau tu cdng suat dat dudi tac dong cua DSM khdng doi doi vdi 6Pmax- Ddi vdi dac trung AAd suat dau tu cdng suat dat giam deu va cham dan - Suat chi phi cung cap dien nang deu giam SPmax va AAd tang Dd la tac dong cua DSM lam giam chi phi tdn that va tang Igi ich tri hoan vdn dau tu khong lam thay ddi cac phan chi phi khac Doi vdi dac tnmg 6Pmax, hieu qua giam Cetb' cang ldn DTPT cang bing phang Trong dd, ddi vdi dac tnmg AAd, hieu qua giam suit chi phi cung cap dien nang giam cham dan DTPT tuong ddi bang phang KET LUAN Ket qua tinh toan, phan tich danh gia hieu qua ap dung DSM ddi vdi ludi dien cung cip thi xa Tuyen Quang cho thiy, lugng cong suit dinh giam 2,435MW thi tdn that dien nang cua thi xa Tuyen Quang giam cue dai 144,3 7kWh/ngay (chiem 2,7%, tuong duong vdi 52,7MWh/nam, tilt kiem dugc khoang 36,89 ty dong tien dien ton thit moi nam), suit diu tu cdng suit dat giam tir 278Tr.d/MW/nam xudng 202Tr.d/MW/nam Khi nha may xi mang Tan Quang tren dia ban xa Trang Da va cac nha may thep, nha may luyen gang khu cdng nghiep Long Binh An di vao boat dong, thi phu tai cua thi xa Tuyen Quang sebiln ddng ldn Khi dd viec ap dung DSM d thi xa Tuyen Quang se dem lai hieu qua cao hon va la cin thiit cho viec dam bao chat lugng dien nang cung cap tdi ngudi tieu dimg Viec ap dung DSM vao ludi dien phan phdi thi xa Tuyen Quang la hieu qua va can dugc phd bien ap dung rdng rai cac hd tieu thu dien 355 Tiiu ban: Mdi tru&ng vd Ndng lugng ISBN: 978-604-913-013-7 Giai quyet bai toan ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia DSM din cdc chi tieu kinh ti - ky thudt ciia HTCCDDT se cung cap nhiing thdng tin hiiu ich, hd trg cho cac nha quan ly ndi chung va cac nha quan ly nang lugng ndiriengtrong qua trinh quyet dinh ap dung DSM vao HTCCDDT ciia minh TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Bach Qudc Khanh, 2001, "Ddnh gid tdc ddng ciia qudn ly nhu cdu diin din cdc chi tieu kinh ti ky thudt, thdng sd cdu true hi thdng cung cdp diin dd thi vd khd ndng ung dung dieu khiin phu tdi bdng sdng HTCCDDT Viet Nam ", Luan an tien sy, Tmdng Dai hgc Bach Khoa Ha Ndi Tran Dinh Long, Dang Qudc Thdng, Nguyen Thudng, La Van Ut, Nguyen Van Dam, Dao Kim Hoa, 2004, "Nghiin cuu khd ndng ung dung DSM a Viet Nam ", Bao cao khoa hgc Ma sd: KCDL-95.04.10, Bd KHCNMT, Ha Ndi Nguyen Quang Ninh, 2009, "Ddnh gid tdc ddng cua DSM den cdc chi tiiu kinh ti - ky thudt dp dung DSM hi thdng cung cdp diin thi cua Thi xd Tuyen Quang", Luan van thac sy khoa hgc, Trudng Dai hgc Bach Khoa Ha Ndi Dang Qudc Thdng, Nguyen Thudng, Dao Kim Hoa, Bach Qudc Khanh, Nguyen Dinh Thang, 1998, "Ddnh gid tiim ndng tiit kiim diin ndng vd hiiu qud cua viec ieng dung DSM a Viet Nam", Bao cao khoa hgc Ma sd: KHCN09.08.02, Bd KHCNMT, Ha Noi 356 ... dung DSM a Viet Nam ", Bao cao khoa hgc Ma sd: KCDL-95.04.10, Bd KHCNMT, Ha Ndi Nguyen Quang Ninh, 2009, "Ddnh gid tdc ddng cua DSM den cdc chi tiiu kinh ti - ky thudt dp dung DSM hi thdng cung. .. ddng cua DSM theo cac dac trung tac ddng cua DSM - Budc 3: Tinh toan cac chi tieu kinh te-ky thuat va tinh toan cac he sd tdn thit cdng suit cua HTCCDDT khdng xet den tac ddng ciia DSM - Budc... - Budc 6: Tinh toan chi phi cung cap dien nang hang nam, suit chi phi cung cip dien nang hang nam CEtb'' theo cac dac tnmg tac ddng cua DSM K^t luan tac ddng ciia DSM thdng qua cac thi ket qua