Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)
Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Nguyin Minh Mdn AN NINH N A N G LU''''gfNG THE GlOl NHITNG NAM D A U THfi KI XXI NGUVeN MINH MAN" T6M TAT Trong nhimg ndm ddu thi ki XXI, ndng lugng vd an ninh ndng lugng dd t[.]
Nguyin Minh Mdn Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM AN NINH N A N G LU'gfNG THE GlOl NHITNG NAM D A U THfi KI XXI NGUVeN MINH MAN" T6M TAT Trong nhimg ndm ddu thi ki XXI, ndng lugng vd an ninh ndng lugng dd tra thdnh vdn de quan tdm cda todn the giai Nhu cdu sic dung ndng lugng tdng trie lugng ngdy cdng gidm dd ldm cho tinh hinh ndng lugng vd an ninh ndng lugng cd nhiiu biin dpng bdt thuang Nhdm ddm bdo an ninh ndng lugng qudc gia, mpt sd nudc dd di chinh sdch an ninh ndng lugng cho minh; dd, chinh sdch "ngogi giao ndng lugng" buac \ F ddu dugc mpt sd nu&c dp dung Tir khda: nang lugng, an ninh nang lugng, ngogi giao nang lugng ABSTRACT The world's energy security in the early years ofXXI century In the early years ofXXI century, energy and energy security have become the issues of global concern The conflict between the increasing demand for use and the decline in energy reserves evokes inevitable fluctuations in this field To ensure national energy security, some countries have strategically set security policies for their energy, As one of these policies, "energy diplomacy" has been initially applied in some countries Keywords: energy, energy security, energy diplomacy Khai nifm an ninh n^ng Ivp^g An ninh nang lugng la mdt linh vyc quan trgng cua an ninh kinh te quoc gia Nd tryc tilp anh hudng den an ninh qudc gia va kha nang tri sy phat triln va dn djnh xa hgi Thugt ngir an ninh ndng lugmg xuit hifn hf thong tir ngQ: hifn dgi tir thgp nign 50 ciia thi ki XX Trudc do, ngudn nSng lugng chii ygu cung cip cho cac nganh cdng nghifp la than da, trir lugng than da ddi dao va phan bd nhilu noi, nen cdng nghifp ciia cac nudc Au MT thdi gian tigu hao nang lugng khdng nhilu ndn nhu ciu nang lugng vin cdn dugc dam bao, Tir th|ip nign 50 cua thi ki XX trd di, kha nang cung iing va nhu clu nang ThS, Trudng Ogi hpc Su phfim TPHCiyi lugng cua thg gidi cd nhieu thay ddi ldm theo da phat tridn ciia nen cdng nghifp thg gidi va cudc sdng nhan logi Kdt cau cac ngudn nang lugng trdn thg gidi da cd nhOmg chuygn biln rd rft, than da chigm ti If 60% ngudn nang lugng d thap nidn 50 da giam xudng 24% vao nam 2000; diu md va thidn nhign lgi tang tir 37,4% Ign 61% [9, tr.20] Diu md din F f > thay thg than da dg tharih ngudn nang lugng chii ygu cua nhan logi Sau cudc khiing hoang diu md chidn tranh nam 1973, nguy co thigu hyt diu md trd van dg quan trgng ddi vdi cac qudc gia phat tridn Nam 1974, Co quan nang lugng qudc tg (lEA) dugc lap, dg xuit khai nifm an ninh nang lugng vdi trgng tam la dn djnh nguon cung iing va gia ca diu md 45 F F % F F F ^_^ F A Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM An ninh nang lugng la mOt ITnh vyc mdi, nhung nOi ham an ninh nang lugng ciing theo da phat triln kinh tl xa hOi, nhOmg thay d6i giii'a ngudi va thidn nhign ma cd nhiing dilu chinh nhit djnh Thdi gian diu, an ninh nang lugng chi dugc hiiu mgt each dom gian la cd ngudn cung cip nang lugng 6n djnh, dam bao cho sy ton tgi va phat trien kinh ih mdt quoc gia Y nghTa trdn cho thiy tinh dn djnh cua ngudn cung cip trd myc tidu co ban cua an ninh nang lugng qudc gia Tir thgp nidn 80 cua thi ki XX trd di, sy ndng din ldn ciia trai dit va sy thay ddi cua hau toan cau lam cho ngudi nhgn thirc dugc vin dl quan trgng ciia mdi trudng ddi vdi nhan logi Cac qudc gia phat triln din thay ddi each nhin vd an toan nang lugng Trong chiln luge phat trign nang lugng, cac qudc gia diu tang cudng khai nifm sir dyng nang lugng an toan; cho ndn, sii dyng an toan nang lugng trd vin de quan trgng tac ddng din mdi trudng sinh thai cua ngudi Cd thi ndi, din thdi ki nay, ndi ham an ninh nang lugng da thay ddi, an ninh nang lugng dugc xem la vin dl tdn tgi song song vdi tri sy phat triln dn dinh va bdn virng An ninh nang lugng ddi vdi mdt qudc gia khu vyc hifn phai gin liln vdi tri phat triln kinh tl, tiln bd xa hdi va dam bao trgng thai mdi trudng Hifn nay, ndi din an ninh nang lugng thi mgi ngudi thudng nghT din an ninh diu lira Thyc tl cho thiy, tir sau thgp nidn 50 cua thi ki XX, diu lira chigm 61% cac ngudn nang lugng ma F 46 ^ So 32 ndm 2011 ngudi sii dyng Do dd, ddi vdi cac qu6c gia tren thi gidi, dam bao an ninh diu lira la mgt b$ phgn quan trgng cua dam bao an ninh nang lugng Nhu v^y, thugt ngii an ninh nang lugng hifn khdng dom thuin la chi cac nguon cung cip nftng lugng (chii yiu la ddu lira) dam bao nhu nhihig thgp ki trudc day ma cdn dugc hiiu m^t each toan difn, bao quat hon la phai bao dam cdng tac bao vf mdi trudng, gia ca hgp li va kha nang ling phd vdi cac tinh hu6ng khan cip phat sinh tir cac nhan t6 kinh tl, chinh trj bdn va bgn ngoai mft quoc gia Trong dd, gia ca hgp li la mirc gia dya trdn quy luat thi trudng co ban, cd F \ F tinh dgn nhu cau, Icha nang cung cap vl each tilp can ma cac quoc gia khac sir dyng dh giai quygt vin de nang lugng Tinh hinh ning Ivgrng thi gidi vl nhirng bien d^ng ciia an ninh nSng lu-gng nhirng nSm g^n ddy 2.1 Tinh hinh ndng lupmg thi gi&i Nam 1956, Vifn Khoa hgc dja chit Hoa Ki da dy bao san lugng diu md cua Hoa Ki sg dgt dgn dinh cao vao thgp nien 60 ho$c 70 ciia thi ki XX, nhung thyc te cho thiy san lugng diu ciia Hoa Ki da syt giam tir diu thap nign 70 Cac nha khoa hgc cdn dy doan vdi toe tigu hao dau lira nhu vfly thi din cuoi thg ki XX diu thi ki XXI thi gidi sg chinh thiic budc vao giai dogn "khat diu md" Dy doan da dugc thyc tl chimg minh Thap nien 60-70 ciia thi ki XX, ngudn cung cip diu md trdn thi gidi In djnh, theo da phat triln cda kT thugt tham dd va khai thac, cac md diu c6 trii lugng ldn dugc phat hifn cang nhilu, vupt Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM ca nhu ciu sir dyng cua cac qudc gia trdn thi gidi Tir nam 1971 din nam 1996, tdng san lugng diu md toan thi gidi la 806,4 ti tin, nhung trii lugng mdi chi dgt 1610 ti tin Trii lugng diu md tham dd tir 729,4 ti tin (nam 1971) tang ldn 1567 ti tin (nam 2003') Can cir thdng kg cua Tgp chi Diu Hoa Ki, vao thdi dilm thang I nam 2004, trii lugng tham dd khai thac diu md thi gidi la 1733,99 ti tin, dd triJ lugng cua Canada chidm 245,06 ti tin, diing thii trgn thi gidi Ngoai ra, theo thong kg cua Cdng ti Diu Anh Qudc (BP), trir lugng thidn nhign tham dd cua thi gidi tang tir 926 800 ti tin (nam 1983) ldn 750 780 ti tin (nam ^ F 2003), tang gan gap ddi vdng 20 nam Nam 2000, Cyc Dilu tra Dja chit Hoa Ki da cdng bd danh gia mdi nhit vl san lugng thidn nhign; cho thiy ngudn nang lugng hifn chiim 12% nang lugng toan cau Vd khai thac dau md, trinh khai thac cac gilng diu chi dgt ti If 60-80%, cac gilng diu khai thac lan thii nhat F F ^ chigm khoang 15%, cac gigng dau khai thac lan thii hai chigm khoang 30%, cdn khoang 70-85% gilng diu chua dugc khai thac Cac nha hogch djnh chinh sach dau md cung chi vdng 5-10 nam niia cac gilng diu (DOFF) se cung cip trir lugng 1250 ti thiing diu^ cho thi gidi Theo bao cao cua lEA^ nam 2002, mdi thi gidi tidu thy hit 78 trifu thimg diu Din 2015 sd dd sg la 103 trifu thiing/ngay va 2025 sg la 119 trifu thimg/ngay Nlu liy trii lugng toan thi gidi chia cho nhu ciu cac thdi dilm trgn mt FtF Nguyin Minh Mdn thi dau lira chi dap ling nhu ciu cua nhan logi din nam 2050 [2, tr.5] san lugng diu md hifn chii ydu tap trung d cac nudc vign ciia OPEC^ Nam 2003, san lugng diu mdi ciia cac nudc vidn OPEC tang 1,88 trifu thiing, vdi tdng san lugng mdi nam dgt 14,67 ti tin, tang 6,6% so vdi nam 2002 va tang 12,6% so vdi nam 1993, chiim 39,7% tdng san lugng diu toan thi gidi Trong do, Arab Saudi cung cip san lugng diu mdi 9,817 trifu thiing cac qudc gia khac td chiic OPEC ciing cd kha nang cung cip tir 500 nghin ddn trifu thiing dau Do do, nhimg bien ddng gia ca cua tinh hinh dau md the gidi ddu chju anh hudng tir san lugng cac nudc khdi OPEC cac nudc khdng nam td chiic OPEC tang trudmg cd han, nam 2003 cac nudc cd san lugng dau md mdi dgt 830 nghin thimg dau Trong dd, Lien bang Nga giii vai trd quan trgng vdi tdc khai thac tang 11% moi nam va chiim ti If 11,4% san lugng diu thi gidi Ngoai ra, san lugng diu cua cac qudc gia nim td chiic hgp tac va phat tridn kinh tl (OECD) dang cd xu hudng giam din cac nudc cd san lugng dau md giam nhilu nhit la Anh vdi 220 nghin thimg mdi ngay, tilp din la Nfi 170 nghin thiing moi Chi cd Mexico va Canada la hai qudc gia cd san lugng diu tang trudmg vdi san lugng 100 nghin thimg Theo thdng ke mdi nhat cua lEA, ti If san xuit diu ciia tit ca cac khu vyc trdn thi gidi diu cd sy thay ddi theo timg nam, didu chiing td nhu cau dau lira cua thi gidi ciing thay ddi theo thdi gian 47 Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Sd 32 ndm 2011 Tong so gid tri ddu lua cua tung nhdm qudc gia [10, tr 14] Danvi:tiddla Khu vyc 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 OECD Bac Ml Chau Au Chau A Khdng phdi OECD Chau 35,221 15,331 14,224 5,667 37,133 16,073 15,015 6,045 42,403 18,789 16,839 6,775 47,466 21,341 18,811 7,314 52,996 24,283 20,894 7,819 59,264 27,802 23,105 8,357 Ti If thay dii trung binh hang nam 2>2 2,5 • 2,0 1,6 24,717 31,723 41,529 52,907 65,062 78,220 4,9 3,159 3,940 4,865 5,725 6,536 7,381 3,6 13,408 17,934 24,606 32,726 41,428 50,834 5,7 2,053 2,484 3,030 3,621 4,300 5,102 3,9 2,341 2,870 3,612 4,384 5,182 5,958 4,0 3,757 4,495 5,415 6,450 7,615 8,945 3,7 59,939 68,856 83,932 100,373 118,058 137,484 A Au-lyc dja Au A Chau A Tnmg Ddng Chau Phi Trung va NamMT Tong sd tren the gidi Bdn cgnh dd, nhu ciu ddt thidn nhign ciia thi gidi ciing tang mgnh Theo bao cao nam 2009, EIA da dy bao nhu ciu dot thign nhign nam 2010 se tang gip ddi so vdi nhu ciu nam 2006 Cac nudc cd trii lugng thidn nhign ldn nhu Nga, MT, Nigeria dang cit din cac khoan xuit khiu dl dam bao an ninh qudc gia Mdt phin ldn dot thidn nhign dugc dung dl san xuit difn hifu qua sir dyng ciia nd cao hom cac logi nguygn lifu khac va khdng lam tang hifu img nha kinh Theo dy bao cua lEA, lugng ddt trdn toan thi gidi chi cdn 48 3,5 kha nang cung cip cho nhu ciu nhan loai thgm 60 nam niia Theo bao cao "Trign vgng nang lugng thi gidi nam 2004" cua lEA, vdng 10 trd lai day san lugng sii dyng thign nhign da vugt qua san lugng sir dyng than da Din nam 2030, san lupng sir dyng thign nhign toan ciu se co thay ddi ldn [1, tr 108-109] Theo co quan nang lugng qudc gia MT, thign nhidn la ngudn nang lugng cd tdc tang trudng nhanh nhit, tir nam 2001 din nam 2025, san lugng thidn nhidn tang trudng 67%, dy bao din 2025 se dgt din Tgp chi KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM 4,28 ti met khdi, tang 12% so vdi san lugng than da Nhu ciu vl than da cua cac quoc gia phat tridn trgn thg gidi nhOmg nam gin day ciing tang cao Ngogi trir khu vyc Tay Au dang cd xu hudng F "> chuydn sang sii dyng ddt thidn nhign dg san xuit difn, cac qudc gia cdn lai diu cd nhu ciu cao vl than da dd phyc vy cho nin cdng nghifp cua nudc minh Hai qudc gia cd nhu cau than da nhidu nhit la Trung Qudc va An Dg vdi 72% nhu ciu gia tang than da thi gidi va 87% nhu ciu than da ciia cac qudc gia dang phat tridn Theo thdng kd cua lEA, trii lugng than da tren toan thi gidi khoang trgn dudi 1000 ti tan, du kha nang cung cap cho nhu cau ngudi vdng 200 nam nira Than da la nguyen lifu chii ydu cua cdng nghifp difn lyc va san xuit gang thep Trudc mit, trdn phgm vi toan cau cdng nghifp difn lyc va san xuat gang thep van giii vai trd chii ydu cac nganh cdng nghifp ngng Q hau khap cac khu vyc, than da dugc dung chii ydu dg san xuit difn, chiim ti trgng 37% nguygn lifu tgo difn Trudc nhu cau sir dyng difn cang tang cao, ap lyc vl san lugng than da nhimg nam tdi sg la F r rat ldn ddi vdi nganh cdng nghifp khai khoang ciia thi gidi Dg dap ling nhu cau nang lugng, ngudi da khai thac qua miic cac ngudn nang lugng truyen thdng nhu dau lua, thidn nhign, than da Sy cgn kift cua cac ngudn nang lugng la didu khdng tranh khdi tuomg lai Nhung trudc mat, nang lugng khdng ngimg tac Nguyin Minh Mdn dgng din cugc sdng ngudi dudi nhilu gdc dg khac dd cd ITnh vyc kinh te 2.2 Nhitng biin dpng cua an ninh ndng lupfng nhirng ndm gdn ddy Sy phan bd khdng ddng ddu trii lugng diu md giiia cac quoc gia lam cho vin dl an ninh nang lugng trd ndn phiirc tgp Theo thdng kd, ba khu vyc cd trii lugng diu md nhilu nhat thi gidi la Trung Ddng - Bic Phi, Trung A va Bic MT chidm 82,3% trii lugng diu md thg gidi Trong dd trii lugng cua khu vyc Tnmg Ddng chidm 64%; ti If ciia chau F MT, chau Phi, Nga va khu vyc chau A Thai Binh Duomg lin lugt la 14%, 7%, 4,8% va 4,27% [8, tr.lO] Tir sau chiln tranh thi gidi thir hai dgn nay, hiu hit cac khu vyc san xuat dau md ldn deu nim tim kidm soat ciia ML, mat khac MT Cling la qudc gia sir dyng diu md nhilu nhit vdi 50% lugng diu xuit khiu trdn thi gidi Hifn nay, vifc kidm soat xuit khau dau md la rat quan trgng, dgc bift la Trung Ddng, khu vyc cd anh hudmg ldm din nhilu qudc gia trdn thd gidi, cd Trung Qudc ^ ^ F F MT va Trung Qudc dang cd tim each gay anh hudng tgi chau Phi, noi cd trii lugng diu md dung thii trdn thi gidi chi sau khu vyc Tnmg Ddng, Trung A va chau MT chau Phi trd "milng mdi ngon" giira MT va Trung Qudc san lugng tai day hiia hen ddi dao hom so vdi cac khu vyc truyin thdng, mat khac ham lugng sunphua diu thd d chau Phi tuong ddi thip ndn rit cd gia trj xuit khiu Sy "chgy dua" tim kilm ngudn 49 S6 32 ndm 2011 Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM F nang lugng giita MT va Trung Quoc lam cho tinh hinh chinh trj trdn the gidi thgm phirc tgp va din din diin biln ciia an ninh nSng lugng nhOmg nam gan day Thyc te cho thiy, nhu ciu nang lugng toan ciu gia tang timg nhung khdng dong diu giiia cac qudc gia va nganh cdng nghifp Nhu ciu nang lugng ldn nhit thugc vl cac qudc gia dang phat triln, chiim khoang 2/3 nhu ciu nang lugng thi gidi Trong nhdm Trung Qudc diing dau vg nhu cau dau lira Dy bao cho thiy din nam 2010 Trung Qudc phai nhgp trifu thiing dau mdi ngay, nguon cung cip diu md nudc khan hidm, cung khdng dii ciu, com "khat diu" lam cho Trung Quoc day mgnh qua trinh tim kilm ngudn cung cip diu md dn djnh va ben vflrng Ddn nam 2030, nhu cau dau lira ciia Trung Qudc se la 10 trifu thiing ngay, diing thii the gidi sau MT Giao thdng van tai va cdng nghifp ngng van la nhumg nganh cd nhu ciu cao nhit vd dau lira Thdi digm hifn tgi chua cd ngudn nguygn lifu nao thay thi dugc diu liia ITnh vyc giao thdng van tai, ITnh F \ \ vyc chidm 60% nhu cau dau lira giai doan 2002-2025 [9, tr.28] Sy phan bd khdng ddng diu va nhu cau sir dyng dau lira gia tang timg da din den hf lyy la gia diu lien tyc tang F \ cao va mat dn djnh thdi gian gan day Trong nam 2005, gia diu thi gidi lidn tyc tang mgnh tir 62,47USD/thiing (9-8-2005) Ign 67USD/thiing (12-8-2005) Nam 2006, Bic Trilu Tign thir tgn Ilia tam xa cdng gia dau ciing tang 50 vgt nhanh chdng ldn dgn 75,78 USD/thimg Tnrde kinh tl thi gidi lam vao khiing hoang, gia dau cd liic dat dinh dilm 147USD/thung vao thang nam 2008 Gia diu tang cao la sy mk can bing giii'a cung cau Theo bao cao cua lEA vao nam 2009, nhu ciu nang lugng cua thi gidi sd tang tir 85 trieu thimg/ngay nam 2006 ldn 106,6 trifu thimg/ngay vao nam 2030 va gia diu sS giG mirc trgn lOOUSD thiing tir 2013 din hit thdi ki ngu trgn [10, tr.2l] Din nam 2030, cac nudc OPEC van la khu vyc cung cip diu ldn nhit thi gidi vdi 44 trifu thiing/ngay chiim khoang 40% nhu ciu thi gidi Tdc khai thac sg tang 8,3 trifu thimg/ngay cac vien OPEC tir nam 2006 din nam 2030 Sau sy kifn 11-9, xung dot giira MI va cac nudc Hdi gia© tang cao Cac qudc gia ma MT xung dot lgi la cac qudc gia co trii lugng va quy md san xuat diu lua nhieu nhat thd gidi Sy mat dn djnh ve chinh trj - kinh te cd nguy co dien tren phgm vi toan cau, sy tranh gianh lgi ich giiia cac nudc ldn hifn la nhan to lam gia diu leo thang Dd bao dam cho an ninh nang lugng, cac nudc trdn thg gidi day manh xay dyng cac kho dy trii dau chien luge Trung Qudc va An Do tuydn bd se xay dyng kho dy trii chidn luge bang ngudn ngoai tf ddi dao cua minh Nam 2008, An Do da cdng bd kl hogch xay dymg kho dy trii chiln luge qudc gia co siic 36 trifu thiing, tuomg lai se tang miic dy trii ldn din 108 trifu thung Cimg thdi gian ngu trgn, Trung Qudc tuygn bd xSy dyng co sd dy trii chiln luge d khu vuc Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Nguyin Minh Mdn duydn hai la Trin Hai, Dgi Som, Dgi Lign va Hoang Dao Trong tuomg lai, mdt khu F dy trii ldn nhat dy kidn sg dugc xay dyng tgi tinh Trilt Giang vdi trii lugng 5,2 trieu met khdi diu Myc tidu dy trii diu F \ lira cua Trung Qudc la dap img nhu cau diu lira qudc gia 30 nlu xay hifn tugng cac nguon cung iing bat ngd bj ngung trf (khoang 300 trifu thiing nam 2010) Nhu vgy, kha nang dy trir ciia Tnmg Qudc va An Do van it hom MT la 118 ngay, it hon Nhgt Ban la 169 Nhu cau dau lira san xuat, sinh hogt hang ciing nhu dy trii chidn luge cua cac qudc gia cang tang cao Trong dd, cac nudc san xuit diu md gin nhu dat mirc san xuit trin Md dau dang khai thac ldn nhat trdn thd gidi hifn la Ghawar ciia Arab Saudi vdi cdng suat trifu thimg/ngay se khdng tri lau Cac md dau quan trgng d khu vyc Trung Ddng, bien Bac Au ciing dang giam dan san lugng khai thac trir lugng cang thip Rieng cac md diu F ^ F tgi Irac cd trii lugng ldn nhung tinh hinh khdng dn djnh Tgi Iran ciing the, chinh phu nudc dang ddi dau vdi phuomg Tay va bj phuong Tay cim van Mat khac, tinh trang chinh trj bit dn tgi Tnmg Ddng ludn de dga md diu ldn nhit la Ghawar, Safaniya-Khafji, Abqaip, Berri, Manifa, Faroozan-Marjan va 17 000km dudng dng din dau ma phin ldn diu nim lg thidn An ninh ciia cac tuyln dudng van chuygn dau liia ciing anh hudng dgn an ninh nang lugng thi gidi Diu tign la F F nguy CO bj khiing bd cua cac tuydn dudng van chuyin diu liia Tuyln van chuyin qua khu vyc eo biln Malacca d Ddng F F Nam A dugc xem la huydt mgch cua an ninh nang lugng khu vyc Ddng A Con dudng nhgp khau cua Trung Quoc va Nhgt Ban chu ylu di theo tuyln chinh: thic nhdt, tir Trung Ddng eo Hormuz eo bidn Malacca eo bign Dai Loan Trung Qudc-Nhat Ban; thic hai, tir Bic Phi - Dia Trung Hai Gibralta Miii Hao Vgng - eo biln Malacca eo bidn Dai Loan Trung Qudc - Nhgt Ban; thic ha, tir Ddng Nam A eo biln Malacca eo biln Dai Loan Trung Quoc - Nhgt Ban Trong nhiing nam gan day, eo bidn Malacca dugc xem la kha "ndng" vdi sy hogt ddng cua cac nhdm hai tgc, ndu nhu eo bidn bj phong tda thdi gian ngan nhiing sy kifn bat ngd thi kinh td Tnmg Qudc va Nhgt Ban sg bj anh hudng diu tign, bdi gin 90% lugng diu nhgp khau ciia hai nudc di qua ba tuygn dudng trgn Nhiing nhan td vira ndu diu anh hudng it nhilu din nhiing biln ddng ciia an ninh nang lugng nhiing nam gin day Nhung nhan td nay, dii tryc tilp hay F F \ F F gian tidp ddu tac ddng den kinh td chmh trj thi gidi, cac bao cao ciia lEA ^ ' hang nam, td chiic ddu canh bao the gidi vin ddi mat vdi nguy co khiing hoang diu liia tilm in Nhumg biln ddng va nguy CO tir an ninh nang lugng, budc cac qudc gia phai cd chmh sach didu chinh CO ciu sii dyng nang lugng hgp li, ddng thdi tang cudng hgp tac diu tu tren ITnh vyc nang lugng nhim dam bao 51 Sd 32 ndm 2011 Tgp chi KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM ngudn cung cap nang lugng on djnh, bdn vumg hifn tgi va tuomg lai 2.3 Suxudt hifn cua chinh sdch ngogi giao ndng lupng quan hp qudc ti Hifn nay, diu md da trd mgt logi nang lugng mang tinh chiln luge, la "nguon mau" nudi sdng nganh cdng nghifp, an ninh cua nd gin liln vdi cu^c song va an toan ciia mgt qudc gia Trdn thyc tl, diu md da trd mgt "thuomg phim mang tinh chinh trj chiln luge" [2, tr.31], cac quoc gia dang co ging tranh gianh nguon tai nguydn dg dam bao an ninh qudc gia, tham chi mgt s6 chinh trj gia da tuydn bd "ai chiim dugc diu md, Cling cd nghTa la dugc ca thi gidi" cac nudc ldn trdn thi gidi nhu MT, Trung Qudc, Nga, An Do, Nhgt Ban va cac nudc thudc EU diu tim mgi each gay anh hudng hoac lidn doanh hgp tac trdn ITnh vyc nang lugng vdi nhung khu vyc, quoc gia cd trii lugng diu md ldn nhu Tnmg Ddng, Tnmg A, Bic Phi, MT La-tinh Thd gidi dang chiing kign cugc chgy dua ngogi giao diu liia giira cac nudc ldn lam cho quan hf qudc tl them phiic tgp va da dgng cac nudc cd nhu ciu cao vl nang lugng dang tiln hanh ngogi giao song phuong hoac da phuomg vdi cac khu vyc, qudc gia cd tilm nang diu lira doi dao da gdp phin lam rd khai nifm ngogi giao ndng lugmg hay ngogi giao ddu lira quan hf qudc tl Cac chuyin ngogi giao thoi ciia nguyen thii cac nudc ldn nhu Trung Quoc, MT, Nhgt Ban, Nga, An Dg din Trung Ddng, Trung A, chau Phi cang lam cho ddi sdng chinh trj thi gidi 52 trd ndn nhfn nhjp ITnh vyc nay, Trung Qu6c la mft vi dy diln hinh Cac nhi lanh dgo Trung Qu6c da dh chinh sach "di ngoai" dh tim kilm nguon diu liia dam bao cho vifc phat triln kinh tl dlt nudc Nguygn Thii tudng Ly Bing "Chinh sach nang lugng Trung Quoc" da chi rd: "Phat triln cdng nghifp diu liia phai dap img nhu ciu nudc, di thi gidi, lgi dyng tot hai nguon nang lugng, hai thj trudng Trdn nguygn tic binh ding cimg cd lgi, tham gia tich cyc vao cac logi hinh hgp tac vdi cac quic gia, khu vyc, tham gia tim kilm khai thac vdi cac quoc gia khu vyc trgn thi gidi, xay dyng dugc thj trudng nhgp khau dn djnh, dam bao ngu6n cung ung cho quoc gia" [2, tr.56] Trdn co sd do, tir 31 thang din 01 thang nam 2004, F F Qudc vy vifn Tnmg Qudc da khai mac Hdi nghj toan qudc tgi Bic Kinh vdi nhifm vy ban vl cdng tac ddi ngogi kinh tl dl phat triln Trung Qu6c, Thii tudng A On Gia Bao da dua phuomg cham: "dya trdn co sd xu thd phat triln kinh tl chinh trj thi gidi, tinh hinh phat triln kinh tl xa hdi nudc, chiln luge cdng tac ddi ngoai, diy mgnh hom nhan thiic tinh quan trgng cua cdng tac ddi ngogi kinh tl"^ Nguydn tic chi dgo da thiic day chinh sach ngogi giao nang lugng ciia Trung Qudc phat triln sang giai dogn mdi Trong nam 2004, cac nha lanh dao Trung Qudc nhu Hd Cim Dao, Ngd Bang Qudc, On Gia Bao, Gia Khanh Lam, Tang Khanh Hdng, Hoang Cue lin lugt tham 32 qudc gia, bao gdm chau A (Viet Nam, Lao, Malaysia, Indonesia, Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Nguyin Minh Mdn Pakistan), Trung Ddng (kuwait, Iran, Arab Saudi, Aman), chau Au (Nga, Anh, Ha Lan), Trung A (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan), chau Phi (Sudan, Nigieria, Kenia, Gabong), Nam MT (Venezuela, Peru, Brasil, Chile ) vdi myc tidu chii ygu la thigt lap quan hf F hgp tac chign luge trgn ITnh vyc nang lugng Mdt mat, Trung Qudc md rgng F hgp tac vdi cac ddi tac mdi nhu chau Phi, Nam MT, Tnmg A, mat khac van tri quan hf vdi cac ddi tac truyin thdng nhu Trung Ddng, Nga, ASEAN nhim thyc hifn myc tidu da dd chign luge nang lugmg Khdng nhirng ddng vai trd quan trgng vdi timg qudc gia, nang lugng cdn F \ F trd van dd quan trgng ddi vdi cac hdi nghj mang tmh khu vyc va qudc td Trong nhiing nam gan day, tgi cac cudc hgp thudng nidn, van dd dau lira va gia dau da trd ngi dung nghj sy chinh ciia cac nudc nhdm G8 Trong cudc hpp nam 2006 tgi St Petersburg (Nga) 16-7 an ninh nang lugng da trd F \ van dd dugc cac nudc vidn quan tam nhat Trong cudc hgp 7-62008 didn tgi Aomori, Nhgt Ban, nam nudc sir dyng nang lugng ldn la MT, Tnmg Qudc, An Do, Nhgt Ban va Han Qudc ydu cau cac nudc san xuat dau tang san lugng dh kilm soat gia diu Cac td chirc mang tinh khu vyc khac thi bd sung vin dl an ninh nang lugng va hgp tac ITnh vyc nang lugng vao chuong trinh hogt ddng cua minh Vdi vj tri la khu vyc cd tdc phat tridn kinh tg thudc logi cao d chau A, "* F F nhihig nam gin day, cac nudc vidn ASEAN da xem nang lugng va an ninh nang lugng la van dg quan trgng bgc nhit chiln luge phat triln toan difn cua minh Sy quan tam da dugc thi hifn ro net qua Hifp djnh an ninh diu md khu vyc ASEAN (APSA) Didn dan hgp tac kinh tl chau A Thai Binh Duomg (APEC) da dua an ninh nang lugng trd vin dl cin hgp tac giira cac nudc vidn Nam 2000 "Sang kiln an ninh nang lugng APEC" (AESI) da dugc cac nudc vidn thdng qua vdi bdn ndi dung chinh: chia se thdng tin vd tinh hinh diu md; dam bao an ninh van tai dudng biln; chia sd thdng tin cac trudng hgp khan cap; F •» dap ling cac trudng hgp khan cap vd nang lugng va nhiing kg hoach dai hgn Khoi APEC da lap nhdm cdng tac vd nang lugng dd theo ddi, didu phdi van dl nang lugng cac nudc vidn Ngoai ra, Hdi nghj bd trudng nang lugng cac nudc vidn APEC ciing diln thudng xuygn dg trao ddi thdng tin va tim giai phap cho vin dl hgp tac trdn ITnh vyc nang lugng Bh thyc hifn dugc myc tigu cua ngogi giao nang lugng, cac nudc cd nhu ciu ldm vl nang lugng da sii dyng cac ngudn Vifn trg phat triln chinh thirc (ODA) lam cdng cy dh thu hiit cac nudc •* F CO trii lugng ldn nhung ndn kinh td cdn chgm phat triln Thai ciia Tnmg Qudc ddi vdi chau Phi la mdt diln hinh Nhumg md diu cd trii lugng ldn dugc phat hifn d chau Phi nhirng nam gin day lam cho ca thi gidi dd ddn sy quan tam vl chau lyc 53 Tgp chi KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM So 32 ndm 2011 sau mgt thdi gian dai bj qudn lang Thdng qua nguon von ODA, cac nudc ldn va Trung Qudc mudn dimg ddn bay kinh td nham dam bao sy trung va ldng tin cua cac nudc chau Phi vl vin de cung ling diu md hifn tgi cung nhu tuomg lai De cy thi hda hom cho chiln luge "chau Phi", tir 30-01 din 1002-2007, Chu tjch Ho Cim Dao cua Trung Qudc da cdng du tam nudc chau Phi bao gdm Cameroon, Libia, Sudan, Zambia, Namibia, Nam Phi, Modambic va Seychelles Trong cac cugc g$p gd cip cao giira lanh dgo Trung Qudc va lanh dgo tam nudc chau Phi, Trung Quoc cam F t - _ kdt se day nhanh va mgnh nguon von ODA cho tam nudc nay; ngugc lgi, tam nudc sg tgo dilu kifn dl Trung Quoc diu tu cac ITnh vyc kinh tl, dd cd tham dd va khai thac diu md, ddt Diu md da trd mdn hang dh cac nudc thyc hifn cac cudc trao ddi, mua ban trdn ITnh vyc chinh trj Trudc sy hifn difn cang sau va rgng cua Trung Qudc tgi "lyc dja den", MT va Tay Au cung diy mgnh nhihig hogt dgng ngogi giao d chau Phi vi khdng mudn mit quydn lgi nang lugng tuomg lai cac nguon cip nang lugng d cac khu vuc truydn thdng cd nguy co giam dan tuong lai Nhu vgy, ngogi giao nang lugng cua cac nudc ldn bao gdm hai ngi dung CO ban.- thic nhdt, la hanh dgng dam bao cho ngudn cung cip, van chuyin, tidu dirng nang lugmg ciia qudc gia va lam lgi cho nin kinh tl; thic hai, hanh ddng ngogi giao nang lugng cung dgi difn cho mdt nhan to chinh trj nao dd, 54 dd vin dl nang lugng bj lgi dyng, trd cdng cy cho myc dich ngogi giao [ll,tr.60] Diu md va dot lam xuit hifn vl tap hgp cac lyc lugng mdi, hinh thinh quan hf doi tac chiln luge va nhimg lien minh kinh tl chinh trj trdn thi gidi Hifn nay, ngoai Td chiic cac nudc xuat khiu diu md (OPEC) ddi tir nam I960, nin chinh trj thi gidi dang din hinh thinh F nhOmg lidn minh kinh tg chinh trj mdi ma diu md va ddt chinh la hgt nhan noi kit Td chiirc hgp tac Thugng Hai (SCO) bao gom: Nga, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Trung Qudc vl Uzbekistan va nudc vidn la Iran, Pakistan, Mdng Cd, An Dg la mgt vi du "* F F \ didn hinh Ndu cgng tat ca trii lugng dau md cua cac nudc vidn tiii SCO dang nim tay 25% trii lugng diu md va ddt toan ciu, vdi ti If thi SCO hoan toan cd the chi phoi va tac ddng ddn gia ca diu lira trgn phgm vi toan cau Tgi khu vyc Nam MT, Venezuela ciing dang dh xuit lap hai lign minh dau md la PetroCaribe (cho cac nudc vimg Caribe) va PetroSur (cho khu vyc Nam MT) Sy gan kit cdn dugc ciing F cd vi tuomg lai dy an xay dyng dudng dng din diu tir Venezuela den Argentina sd dugc khdi cdng Nhimg ddng thai nay, ngoai myc tidu kinh tl ra, cac nudc MT La-tinh cdn mudn thoat khdi sy kilm kep cua MT mdt thdi gian dai Nhu vay, nhung nam diu thi ki XXI nang lugng va an ninh nang Tgp chl KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Nguyin Minh Mdn lugng da trd vin dh quan trgng chile luge phat triln kinh tl chinh trj xa hdi cua cac qudc gia trdn thi gidi Sy mit can bing kit ciu nang lugng the gidi da din din sy mit can bing khai thac, sir dyng nang lugng cua cac qudc gia Trudc mit, diu lira va ddt vin la hai ngudn nang lugng chii F F F ydu cung cap cho tat ca mgi hogt dgng kinh tg xa hdi mdi nudc Vdi vai trd do, nang lugng se tidp tyc tac ddng den quan hf qudc te va ban cd chinh trj the gidi NhOmg quan hf phiirc tgp, dan xen, chdng cheo lln d ITnh vyc quan hf qudc td diu lidn quan dgn van dg nang lugmg cac qudc gia phat tridn va dang phat trien F mg F t t ^ * ^ dang can mdt ngudn cung cap nang lugng bdn viing, dn dinh vdi gia ca hgp li, cac qudc gia sd hiiu trii lugng nang lugng ldn thi dang sii dyng chiing nhu mdt cdng cy dd trao ddi vl mat chinh trj Nhan td da gdp phan hinh mdt khai nifm mdi quan hf qudc td ngogi giao nang lugng, mac dii hinh tuong ddi mugn nhung anh hudng ciia khai nifm vugt xa vd quy md, F F F tinh chat va anh hudmg so vdi cac ITnh vyc ngogi giao truydn thdng Ndi mgt each hinh anh, nang lugmg dang la "ngudn dinh dudng" nudi sdng toan the gidi va vdi sy phong phii da dgng cac mdi quan he kinh tl chinh trj lign quan din vin dl nang lugng, tuomg lai gin nang lugng va an ninh nang lugng sg trd bai toan khd cho timg qudc gia va cho ca nhan logi Mat khac, vin dk nang lugmg va an ninh nang lugmg da trd vin dg thyc tign dang thu hiit sy chii y ciia chinh gidi F F va cac nha nghign curu quan hf qudc td Trudc didn bign cang phiic tgp ciia tinh hinh nang lugng toan cau, nang lugmg da, dang va sg trd nhan td chi phdi ndn kinh tg - chinh trj the gidi Nghign cim van dg nang lugng va an ninh nang lugmg trd hogt ddng mang y nghTa thyc tiln giai dogn hifn Ddi vdi cac qudc gia dang phat tridn vifc hogch djnh chinh sach nang lugng va an ninh nang lugng khdng nhimg cd y nghTa giai dogn hidn ma cdn mang tinh chidn luge tuomg lai, Dya trdn dilu kifn thyc tg ciia ngn kinh tg va dac dilm chinh trj, cac nudc ldn dang hogch djnh chinh sach an ninh nang lugmg phii F F F ^ hgp vdi chinh sach ddi ndi va ddi ngogi ciia qudc gia minh BP (Cong ty dSu Anh Quic) 2004, Statistical Review of World Energy, trang ^ Thiing dSu (barrel) la don vj qu6c tl su dyng tren thj tnrdng dSu mo thi gidi, mQt thiing dSu bang 158,97 lit ^ lEA: Co quan Nang lucmg qu6c tl (Intemational Energy Agency) la ca quan dugrc T6 chuc hgrp tac va phat triln icinh tl (OECD) lap thdi gian khiing hoang d k liia 1973 voi nhifm vy dilu phii vifc cung ung dSu lua cac tinh hulng khin cSp cho cac vien OPEC: To chuc cac nuac xuat khau dau mo ^ Bai phat bilu khai mac ciia Thu tu6ng On Gia Bao Hpi nghj toan quic vl cong tac dii ngoai kinh tl t l chuc tai BSc Kinh, dugc dang tren Nhdn ddn nhdt bdo thang nam 2004 55 Tgp chi KHOA HQC DHSP TPHCM Sd 32 ndm 2011 TAI L i f u THAM KHAO Trin Phyng Anh (2004), Diiu tra chien luge ndng lugng qudc ti, Nxb Thdi sy, Ban tidng Hoa Trin Phyng Anh (2005), Bdn ea ndng lugng thi giai, Nxb Thdi sy Ban tilng Hoa Trjnh Cudng (2005), "Kinh tl thi gidi trudc "cu soc" diu va cugc dua tim ngudn nang lugng thay thi", Tgp ehi Cgng sdn, (22) Do Minh Hgp, Nguyen Kim Lai (2005), NhCing vdn di todn cdu thai dgi ngdy nay, Nxb Giao due Ha Npi Ngd Dire Lan (2005), "An ninh nang lugng qudc gia vin dh cin quan tam", Tgp chi Cdng nghiep tiep thi, (12) \ f « * F Tran Trpng (2005), "Dau md va nhirng bidn dpng quan hf qudc te", Tgp chi Cdng sdn, (13) Nguyen Anh Tuin (2006), "An ninh diu lira: Vin de va giai phap tai cac nudc Ddng Nam A", Nhirng vdn de kinh te the gi&i, (5) Thdng tan xa Viet Nam (2005), "Quan hf Trung Nhat: ndng vg kinh tg, lanh vl chinh trj", Tai lifu tham khao (1) Commission of the European Communities (2006), A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy, Brussels 10 Energy Information Administration (2006), International Energy Outlook 2006, DOE/ElA-0484-June 11 Stanislav Z.Zhiznin (2005), Chinh tri vd ngogi giao ndng lugng qudc ti, Nxb Dai hpc Su pham Hoa Ddng Ban tilng Hoa 12 U.S-China economic and security review commission (2003), U.S Gorvemment Printing Office, Washington D.C ' F y F F (Ngiiy Ida so^n nh$n dirge bdi: 14-8-2011; ngiiy chip nh$n dSng: 24-10-2011) 56 ... ASEAN da xem nang lugng va an ninh nang lugng la van dg quan trgng bgc nhit chiln luge phat triln toan difn cua minh Sy quan tam da dugc thi hifn ro net qua Hifp djnh an ninh diu md khu vyc ASEAN... ndn, sii dyng an toan nang lugng trd vin de quan trgng tac ddng din mdi trudng sinh thai cua ngudi Cd thi ndi, din thdi ki nay, ndi ham an ninh nang lugng da thay ddi, an ninh nang lugng dugc... lai gin nang lugng va an ninh nang lugng sg trd bai toan khd cho timg qudc gia va cho ca nhan logi Mat khac, vin dk nang lugmg va an ninh nang lugmg da trd vin dg thyc tign dang thu hiit sy chii