Ilidni, 4 „am 2015 Nghien cilu khoa hpe SO SANH SU ANH HlidNG CUA LUONG MUA LEN QUA TRINH NUdC BIEN DANG TAI fJNH BAG UEU The influence of rainfall on the sea level raise in Bac Lieu province o ThS Ho[.]
Ilidni, „am 2015 Nghien cilu khoa hpe SO SANH SU ANH HlidNG CUA LUONG MUA LEN QUA TRINH NUdC BIEN DANG TAI fJNH BAG UEU The influence of rainfall on the sea level raise in Bac Lieu province o ThS Hoang Nggc Hien Khoa Cong nghe Thong tin o ThS Phgm Vdn Himg Khoa Suphgm Trong, hai viC-t nm chung toi dim vdo cac ket qud mot s6 nghien c I'ni dim sir so sdnh sir dnh hinrng lihi cd vd khdng cd yeu td lumig mira len qua trinh mrdc bien ddng lui tmh Dgc Lieu So sdnh vc' mirc dd dnh iiinmg timg thdng cdc ndm vd thdng ke qua cdc mim qud khd vd tiixrng lai ABSTR.4CT In this paper, based on the results of some research \tx' provide the comparison ofthe influence of rainfall and no rainfall on the sea level rise in Bac Lieu province This makes the comparison ofthe influence in each month of tlie year and statistics of the influence in the past years and the next years Mdf dau Bien ddi hdu la hidn tugng trdi ddt nong dan len hieu iing nhd kinh lam cho nhiet dp d cac dai duong tang ddn ldm tan bang d cac vung cue ddi, dan tdi hdu cua trdi ddt bien ddi, han hdn bao 10 xd)' ngdy cang nhieu hon nuac bien nga\ mgt ddng cao [2] Hien tinh tr^ng nuac bidn ddng dang la mdi hidm hpa toan edu, nuac bien dang dang tdc dpng va dnh hudng tai tdi nguyen thien nhidn, ngudi, kinh te - xa hdi d nhidu qudc gia trdn the gidi nhat cac qudc gia cd bien va cdc vung ven bien Cdc qudc gia trdn the gidi dang ciing chung sue nghien cuu dua cdc bidn phdp, xay dung cdc md hinh nhdm gidm thiet h?ii cua nuoc bien dang 16,7] Phuong phap nghidn cuu 2.1 Phuong phap thu thap so lieu S6 lieu muc nudc gia va trung binh ngdy d uam thiiy vdn Ganh Hdo (Trung tdm Khi tugng Thuy van Bac Lieu) Vcri so lieu chi tiet theo timg •gia nga\ va tdt ca cac nga\ thang Tinh tdng, trung binh cao nhat, thdp nhdt theo gia vd ngdy {tu nam 1992 ddn nam 2012) Sd lieu lugng mua timg a Trung tdm Khi tugng Thuy van Bae Lieu Vdi sd lieu chi liet theo timg ngdy vd tat cd cdc thdng Tinh tdng, trung binh, cao nhdt, didp THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC Q Nghien cOu khoa hoc ^hdita •* ««'« ^015 nhdt theo ngdy (tir ndm 1992 ddn ndm 2012) 2.2 Phuong phap xir ly sd lieu Trong nghidn cuu ndy, dua vao cdc ket qud md phong eho hidn trang ngap dia hinh nudc bidn ddng va kdt qud thdm anh hudng cua lugng mua tdc dgng vao qud trinh nudc biin ddng d viing DBSCL giai doan qud khir (tir ndm 1992 ddn nam 2012) vd tuang lai (tir ndm 2013 ddn nam 2050 nhdm lam tidn dd cho cac nghien ciru sau hon niia cac van de nuac bidn dang dnh hudng ddn kinh te vd xa hdi Ngudn sd lieu dugc xu ly; Muc nuoc cao ciia eac gid \'a nhirng ngdy cd mirc nudc cao mdi lam dat ngap nudc, muc nuac thdp thi se khdng ldm dat ngap nudc Lupng mua timg ngdy dugc tinh trung binh thdng Ket hgp hai sd lieu dua vao md phdng GAMA [1] Ket qua thao luan 3.1 Qua trinh ngap dja hinh va tdc dong cua lumig mira den kich ban nudc biin dang tai Bac Lieu Lfng dung cdng cu GAMA de md phdng tinh trang nudc bidn dang tai tinh Bac Lieu giai doan tir nam 2012 den ndm 2050 [4]: nghidn cuu md phdng md hinh ngap dja hinh nudc bidn ddng d khu vuc DBSCL bdi canh viing DBSCL chiu tdc dgng manh ciia bidn ddi hdu Huang ngap dia hinh nudc bien ddng dugc xdc dinh theo hudng tir bien vao npi ddng cd gan vdi he thdng sdng, he thdng de vd he thdng cdng Tren ca sd kdt qua md phdng, nghi§n cuu cung da tidn hanh xdy dung ban dd sd thd hidn qud trinh ngap dia hinh nudc bien dang thdng qua bdn dd ngdp/nguy ca ngap theo thdi gian Cac thdng ke vd dien tich ngap theo thdi gian theo tung dan vi hdnh chinh (cap tinh, cap huyen) trdn dia ban mpt tinh dugc chpn thi diem (tinh BEIC Lieu) tren dia ban khu vuc DBSCL cijng dd duge md td chi tidt tren co sd cac kjch bdn ng^p dja hinh nudc bidn ddng qua khii va cho cdc giai doan tuang lai Ung dung cdng cu GAMA dp dung vdo bai todn nuac bidn dang duoi su tdc ddng ciia lugng mua tai tinh Bac Lidu [5]: Tim hidu duge cde chirc ndng ciia cdng cu lap trinh GAMA md phdng Xii ly va tinh todn dupc ydu td lugng mua cd sdn tix ede tram quan trdc Ganh Hao tir ndm 1992 - 2012 vd sd lieu luong mua cho tuong lai tir nam 2013-2020 Ap dung mo hinh cd sdn vdo bdi todn nudc bien dang dudi tdc ddng cua lugng mua tai tinh Bac Lieu Hien thi dugc bdn dd ngap cdc miic cao - thdp - trung binh qua cac thang, nam Hidn thi dupc cac thdng kd can thidt 3.2 Tinh trang nu-d-c biin dang tir nam 1992-2012 Dd dd dang cho vide so sanh su khac vd muc dp ngap cd va khdng cd su tae dgng ciia yeu td luong mua vdo bai toan nuac bidn ddng, tdi ciing chgn mde thdi gian chin ndin 2000 vd 2010 lam dai dien Theo kdt qua md phong co duge, thdng cd mirc dp ngap cao nhdt la thdng 11-2000 Kdt hgp voi thang ngap cao nhdt 2000 khdng c6 ydu td lupng mua, ta duac: THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC jTRO '^hdiiif nani 2015 Nghien cCtu khoa hoc Khong CO yeu to luang mua Htnh 1: Bdn ngdp thdng cao nhdt ndm 2000 Nguon Trung tdm Khi tuang Thuy van Bgc Lieu, tic ndm 1992 din nam 2012 (Nguon sic dung cho tdt cd cdc hinh tiip theo) Ban ngap cao nhit la thang 11-2010 K& hop vol thang ngap cao nhit nam 2010 khong co ygu to lirgng mua, ta dugc: ^4 Hinh 2: Bdn ngdp thdng cao nhdt ndm 2010 Til ban d6 ngap tren, co ySu to luong mua thi ban d6 ngap thay d6i cu thj la: •Khong CO yju t6 luong mua: Thang 11-2000: Ngap 28% - ben trdi hinh /.Thang 112010: Ngap 37% - ben trdi hinh • Co yju t6 luong mua: Thang 11- 2000: Ngap 49% - ben phai hinh Thang 11- 2010: Ngap 80% - ben phdi hinh Thdng ke dien tich ngap muc cao - thip - trung binh tir nam 1992-2012 :HNSAPT«TlN.lB*CLieu Khdng cd yeu to luang mua Co yeu to iuong mua Hinh 3: Thong ke dien tich ngdp mice cao - thdp - trung binh tic ndm 1992 - 2012 THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC '7/idiu/ iidiit 261s Nghien cdu khoa hoc Ii Qua ka qua thdng kc co yiu t6 luong mua dien tich bi ngap muc cao bien thong ke cang di len cao cho thiy nhiing nam gin day biSn doi hau nuoc bien cang dang, lugng mua tang them lam cho dien tich ngap cang tang Khi chua them vao yiu IS lugng mua tir nam 2000 tro di bien thSng ke dien tich bi ngap mirc trung binh moi tang len Ngugc lai, nSu co ySu t6 lugng mua thi khoang nam 1993 dien tich bi ngap mirc trung binh & CO dau hieu tang len Nhin chung da phin cac mite ngap chi nuoc bien dang vao khoang duoi 40% Nhimg mirc ngap nuoc bien lan lugng mua mirc cao co luc len den 80% (thang 11-2010) va muc trung binh khoang 33%i (thang 11-2010) nlu nude dang cao va mua to Qua day cho thay cac thang co lugng mua Ion anh huong khong nho den hoat dpng san xuat, di lai cua nguoi dan tren tinh Bac Lieu Thong ke dien tich ngap cac huyen so vdi tinh tir nam 1992 - 2012 ?! Khong CO yiu to lu