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KHAC PHUC SAI IAM THITONG GAP CUA SINH VIEN KHI VAN DUNG KIEN THLTC MON XAC SUAT THONG KE VAO MOT SO TINH HUONG M G TIEN ThS, NGUYEN THI THU H A '''' Xac suat thdng ke (XSTK) la mdn hgc khd, he thdngyi d[.]
KHAC PHUC SAI IAM THITONG GAP CUA SINH VIEN KHI VAN DUNG KIEN THLTC MON XAC SUAT THONG KE VAO MOT SO TINH HUONG M G TIEN ThS, NGUYEN THI THU H A ' X ac suat thdng ke (XSTK) la mdn hgc khd, he thdngyi du cdn nang ve li thuyet, ehua gan vdi thuc tiln, Dac biet, mdn A'Sr/fddihdisinh vien (SV) phai lam quen vdi kieu tu mang linh bien chimg, each suy luan khdng hoan loan gidng vdi suy luan eua loan hgc thong thudng, Do dd, van dung XSTK vao cac tinh hudng thue lien, SV thudng mIc mdt sd sai llm, Dudi day, chung ta se phan tich mot sdtlnh hudng cu Ihe: Sai larri ve true giac xac suat ^SV ed the gap sai lam true giac xac suit sai, Chang han: giai cac bai toan thyc tiln cd su dung cdng Ihuc tinh xac suat cua mpt bien cd theo cdng thuc ed'dien, xac suat ciia bien coA dugc tinh nhu sau: PlA)- — \ vai: m la sdket qua thuan Igi, n: la tong hien mat nao, xuc xac thiJ'hai xual tjien mat nao, chukhong phai la long sdcham xuat hien tren mat hai conxucxac Hudng khde phuc: Giang vien (GV) can hucmg din SV su dyng phuang phap true quan va cac suy luan hgp ti de phan tich, danh gia cac linh huong xac suat khac nhau, giup cac em phat hien va dieu chinh tryc giac sai cuaminh /.d'/p/a7rfur3£/.'Oe"chinh xac hda" left giai bai loan, ta phai dem tat ca cac cap sdcd ke den thiytu giira Ian va tan lung xuc xac, Td'ng sd kha nang cd the xay la 36, dd cd kha nang Ihuan Igi: (1, 6); (2 5); (3, 4); {6, 1); (5 2); (4, 3} Vay, p = 6/36 1/6 Vidu2: Cd hai dpi bdng thi dau, hp thda thuan vS rang: dpi nao dau tien Ihang nam Iran se nhan dugc loan bo giai thudng dang thi dau Do trdi mua, trgn dau phal ding la dpi thi/nhat thang van, dpi thirhai thing van, Vay, can chia giai the nao cho hop li? Sai lam thudng gap: Nhieu ngudi cho rang, can chia giai thudng Iheo ti le 4:3, cung cd ngudi cho ring can chia theo ti le 3:2 (vdi lap luan: dpi thang nhieu, han mpt van nen dpi nhan hon 1/5 giai, lai chia ddi mdi dpi mdt nt/a) Tit ea eac y kie'n tren deu sai, Nguyen nhan SV mdi chuytd! mat loan hgc vaxuli linh loan tren cac so, chua quan tam deny nghTa cua cac so dd Huc^g Ifhicphuc: GV cho SV su dyng true giac xac suat d l du doan kit qua bai toan, SV tim Idi giai diing, sau dd dot chieu ke't qua vua tim dugc vd^ ket qua dy doan de ml kinh nghiem xem tn/c giac ci)a minh da diing chua Ldi giai dung:Neu tieptue choi them van "gia" ni/a thi xac suat chie'n thing eua ddi (nhan loan bg giai) la: 1/2.1/2 = 1/4 Do dd, xac sua't chie'n thing cija dpi la 3/4 Vay, chia giai theo ti le 3: ,1 la hgp li nhat so eac ket qua ddng kha nang cd the xay cua phep thu Nhu vay, de tim P(A), ta can tim sd cac ket qua thuan Igi vatd'ngsd cae ket qua ddng kha nang ed the xay cua phep tht/ So kel qua cd the cd cua phep thu tai phij thude vao phep thi/, Trong thycte, nhieu SV chua nam vifng va xac dinh diing khdng gian mau va sdcac ket qualhuan Igi, dan den mac sai lam, ^ VidiJ 7,Tung xuc xlc can ddi lan, Tim xac suit de long sd cham Iren m at eiia xuc xle dd la •Ldi giai thu nhat: 06 tat ea 11 kel qua cd the cd la 2,3,4, , 12 Chi cd mdt ke't qua Ihuan Igi cho long la 7, nenp= 1/11 - Ldigiaithdhai:Bern tat ea cac kha nang cd the xay cua bp cac cap sd the hien dau cham tren mat xuc xlc, khdng ke thu ty lan valan 2.Cdtltca21 cap ket qua nhu vay, Irong dd,cd3 ket qua thuan lai la:(l,6);(2,5);(3,4),Vay,p = 3/21 = 1/7 Ca Idi giai Iren deu sai, Nguyen nhan la cae bien cd dua khong dong kha nang, SV chua hieu dung ve khong gian mau Khdng gian mau la lap hgp bao gom tat ca cac kel qua cd the co cua phep thu, day, ketquaeiJa phep thulacon xuc xac thtjnhatxuat 'TruVnEfiaibpc Hai Dirong 52 Tap chi Gido due so 317 -(kil-9/2013) Sai lam viec van dung khai niem, (Ijnh li D o dac diem cua mdn hpc, cac khai niem, djnh li cua mdn XSTK cori mang tinh iriru lugng nen viec hieu y nghTa hay ban chat cua cae khai niern^ eua SV nhieu cdn mo ho, chua chac chan Chang han, SV chua hieu ro y nghia cua eae tham sd dac trung cua dai lugng ngau nhien, nham lan gli/a cai da ed va caico thecd, giiia dai lugng ngau nhien X vacae gia Irj x cua dai lugng ngau nhien ay, Wdy3,'Lay ngau nhien 100 gdi che mdt nha may ddng gdi dugc khdi lugng trung binh la 50gam, mot sdSV da ket luan rlng:ne'u lay nglu nhien mot goichede kiem tra thi khdi lugng ciJa nd chac chan la SOgam, Nguyen nhan eua sai lam Iren ta SV chua nim vflngynghTa ciJa cac sddac trung ctia dai lugng ngau nhien ma trudc he't lay nghTa cua sd trung binh Wdu4.'MdtbacsIcdtiengvechua mdt loai benh nao Xac suat chua l