Những động thái mới trong biến đổi dân số và cơ cấu tuổi giới tính của dân số việt nam

Dai hgc Thii Nguyin Hgi Dia ly Viet Nam N H L T N G D O N G THAI M O I T R O N G BIEN DOI DAN SO VA C O CAU TUOI - GlOfI TINH CUA DAN SO VIET NAM Nguyen Vict Thinh', Do Thi Minh Dire Abstract New trends in Vietnamese population change and its age-sex structure 7'he Vietnam 's population censuses conducted in 1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009 have shown grea I mortality, fertility, population natural increase and m its age - sex structure This paper I these transitions in lime and in spatial perspectives Viemam has passed the deniographica transitional stages; population growth is slowing down Vietnam is in Ihe period of "demographic wind which IS lasting for decades The dependency burden is reducing, while the concern of ageing require approach to increasing elder population The imbalance of sex ratio at birth (SRB) is a big concern and may cause negative consequences m Ihe two coming decades Key words: I 'letnam, population change, age-sex structure MCJ DAU (3 nude ta, nhirng thgp ki tir 1979 den nay, cii 10 nam Igi cd mot cudc Tong dieu tta dan so (1979, 1989,1999, 2009), v i tu 1999 trd Igi day li Tong figu Ma dan so v i nhi d Nhung thdng so vg dan sd la quan trgng de cd the tich hgp dugc cic ehinh sich din so vdi cic chinh sich phat tnen ciia ci nude va ciia timg vimg Cic thdng s6 vg dan so cdn la "dau via" quan trpng viec quy hogch tdng the phit trien ciia timg nginh va timg vung, cd nhiing nginh trye tiep dgn an sinh xa hdi nhu giao dye, y te, bao hiem xa hdi, Iao dgng - viec lim Trong bai nay, chiing tdi chi phan tich khai quit nhung dong thii mdi cua dan so hen quan den gia tang din sd ty nhien va ca cau dan so theo tuoi vi gidi tinh, ca theo chieu thdi gian va chigu khong gian 2, DAN S6 vA SUBIEN D I DAN SO 2.1 Din sd va su gia tang din sd Vg dign tich tu nhien, nude ta diing thii 58 tren the gidi, nhung ve dan so, nude ta dimg thir 13 Theo cic cupc Tdng dieu tra dan so, dan sd nude ta la 76,3 trigu ngudi (1/4/1999), 85,8 trigu ngudi (1/4/2009) Theo Du bio dan so 2009-2049 [6], tiii dan so nude ta se vugt nguang 100 higu ngudi via nam 2025, dat tdi so 108,7 trigu ngudi vio nam 2049 Vao nam 1921, dan so nude ta mdi cd 15,6 trigu ngudi Bon muoi nam sau (1961) dan so tang gap ddi, Cung nhu nhieu nude Bang I- DSn s6 tnmg binh va ti li phdt tnin ddn sd hdng ndm i dang phit trien khac, hign tuong "bung ViilNam tronglhdi id 1931.2010 no" dan so d nude ta bat dau tit nhiing Tong so dfin Nam Ti 1$ phat tri^n dan sd bine nihn ^ nim 50 ciia the ki Den khoing nam (nghin ngircri) Giai doan 1980 - 1985, dan so nude ta cdn d vio 1951 23061 cuoi giai dogn II eua su qui dan so, 1955 25074 1951-1955 2,11 va nhu vay la sy "bimg no" dan so d 1960 30172 1955-1960 3,77 nude ta dgt miic cyc dgi vio euoi thgp 1965 34929 1%0-1965 2,97 ki 70, dau thgp ki 80, sau dd mdi giim 1970 41063 1965-1970 3,29 dan, di vio the on dinh tit khoang nam 1975 47638 1970-1975 3,02 1980 53722 1975-1980 2000 - 2005 trd fi 2,43 ; - ^^gt Nam hien'da'chuyen sang giai dogn cuoi ciia qui trinh qua dg dan SO' ti Ig sinh da tuong doi thap v i dang giim cham; ti Ig tu vong cung giii on dinh d miic tuong doi t h ^ , Hien nay, ti suat gia tang dan so cua nude ta da % 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 59872 2,19 1980-1985 66016 1985-1990 1,97 ! 71995 1990-1995 1,75 77631 1995-2000 1,52 ! 82392 2000-2005 1,20 86928 2005-2010 1,08 Ngudn Phdn tich kSI qud diiu tra mdu - Tdng diiu tra dM so ViftNam 1989: Niin gidm thdng lii ndm 2010 'Pai hgc Suphgm Hd Not Ky yiu Hgi nghi Khoa iigc Dia iptodn qudcldnM^i •-" Hoi Dia ly Vigt Nam Dgi hgc Thai Nguyen tuong ducmg hoge thap han miic trung binh ciia the gidi, khing dinh nhung tuu to Idn cua cdng tac dan so, ke hoach hoi gia dinh Theo 2009 World Population Data Sheet (Population Reference Bureau), thi nam 2009, ti suit sinh ciia nude ta la i7%o, ti suit tu Ii 5%o, ti suit gia tang tu nhien 1,2% Trang dd, cac chi tieu niy trang binh toin the gidi tuang img li 20%o, 8%o va 1,2% Mitc phit trien din sd hai thl^ nien qua da giam fi dang ke Vio dau thgp ki 90 cua the ki XX, moi nam dan so tang them hon 1,2 tngu ngudi, den nam 2000, tang them khoing 1,0 tneu ngudi va vio cuoi thgp men diu cua the ki XXI, moi nam tang them khoang 900 nghin ngudi So dan ting them tuong duong dan sd cua mpt tinh (nam 2010, co 20 tinh, cd dan so dudi 900 nghin ngudi), ldn g%) ddi so dan cua mpt so tinh nhu Lai Chau, Bac Kan, Kon Tum Ti suit tang ty nhien thay doi mgnh theo cic viing ciia nude ta, tri so cao nhat gip khoang 1,7 Ian so vdi tri so thap nhat Dieu niy chu yeu khic biet ti suit sinh thd Hinh - Ddn sd vd gia tdng ddn sd (nghin ngudi) 1990-2010 Bang - Mot sd chi tieu vi biin dpng ddn sd tu nhien phdn theo vung ndm 1999 vd ndm 2009 N i m 2009 N i m 1999 CANU"6C -Thinh thi -N6ng tiion i i Ti s u i t sinh tho Ti suat chet thS Ti su^t GTTN Tisuilt sinh thd Ti suat chet tho Ti suit GTTN (%.) (%.) (1,43 %) (%•) 6,8 (1,08 %) 4,2 6,0 1,12 17,6 17.3 (%.) 15,9 5,5 1,18 1,52 17,8 7,4 1,04 19,5 6,5 13,0 19,9 21,2 5,6 Mgn niii-Trung du B i c bg -Dfing Bic -Tay BSc Bong bing song Hong B3c Trung bg k- Duyen hii Nam Trung bo T ^ Ngi^gn Dong Nam Bg ^ BB s6ng Cim Long 19,3 6,4 1,29 28,9 7,0 2,19 16,2 21,4 1,11 1,47 29,8 5,1 6,7 6,4 8,7 18,2 18,9 21,0 17,6 7,2 1,04 16,8 7,6 6,5 0,92 1,46 16.9 4,5 2.11 1,37 21,9 17,8 5,0 1,39 16,0 6,1 6,3 6,8 1,04 1,58 1,15 0,92 Ngudn: Tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd a 1/4/1999: Kit qud diiumdu; tra Kit qud xw li cua tdc gid tu Ca sa da lieu dieu Ira mdu 15%, Tdng dieu tra sd ddnvd nhd a 2009 ^Kpyiu Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp toan qudc ldn tha Dgi hgc Thii Nguygn Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam 2.2 Phin tich d6ng thai ti suit tir vong Ti suit tii vong tiid (CDR) d nude ta nhung nam qua chiu lic dgng cua nhi6u bien cd xa hgi, Hai cupc chien tranh chong tiiyc dan Phap, chong de quoc MT xam luge da dk Igi nhung ton thit to Idn ve ngudi Khdng chi hang trieu ngudi bi giet chign ti^h (ma phan Idn so niy d hi6i trang nien), ma cdn hang tneu ngudi khac mang thuang tat chien tranh, v i hgu qui cdn de lau dai cho cac thg he mai sau Mat khic, song song vdi viec on dinh va phat trign kinh te, sy phit trien ciia y hpe nude nha, cai thign dieu kien dich vu y te, dgc bigt la vigc cham sdc b i me va tre em, cham sdc siic khoe ban diu cho nhan dan da gdp phan Iam giim nhanh chdng ti suit hi vong Ti suit tii vong thd eua dan so Viet Nam nam 1965 li 12%o, nam 1989 la 7,3%o, den nam 1999 chi edn 5,6%o nim 2009 la 6,8%o, cd phin cao hon nam 1999 Ti suit tti vong thay doi giiia cac viing, my khdng tiiat Idn Neu nhu nam 1999, ti suit tit vong thd cao nhat ii d Tay Nguyen, thap nhit d Ddng Nam Bg va dong bang sdng Hong, thi nam 2009 ta thiy mgt xu hudng khic: hai vung xuit cu Ii ehinh (Ddng bing song Hong va Bic Trung Bd) cd ti suit tii vong thd eao nhat, cdn hai viing nhip cu ldn nhat (Tay Nguyen vi Dong Nam Bg) cd ti suit tii vong thd thip nhat Dieu niy phin inh tic dpng tich luy nhieu nam ciia eac luong xuat cu khdi vung Dong bang sdng Hong va Bic Tmng Bd lim tang ti trgng ngudi cao tuoi co cau din so ciia viing fi, ciing nhu tie dgng theo chieu ngugc Igi ciia cie ludng nhgp cu ngudi trg, khde tdi Tay Nguyen va Ddng Nam Bp Bdng - Ti sudt lie vong thd (CDR) phdn theo thdnh thf, ndng thdn, 1989-2009 1989 1999 2009 Toan quoc 7.3 5,6 6,8 Thanh thi 5,1 4,2 5.5 N6ng thon 7,9 6,0 7,4 Chuan hoa CDR ciia toan quoc theo co cau tuoi ciia nam 2009 9,7 5,6 6,8 Ngudn [2; b:68] Hinh - Bat dd Ti sudt ta vong tre em dudi ludi ndm 1999 vd ndm 2009 Kyyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dta lp todn qudc lan AA Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hgc Thai Nguyen Viec giim ti suit tu vong tre em dudi I tudi (IMR) da ddng gdp phan quan trgng vio viec giim ti suit tu vong thd Neu nhu IMR (1995-2000) tmng bmh tren the gidi li 57%o, d cac nude phit trien la 9%o, cic nude dang phit trien la 63%o, cdn cac nude kem phat trien nhat la 99%o, thi d nude ta ciing thdi ki la 38%o Nam 2009, IMR toin quoc la I6%o, so vdi 36,7%o nam 1999 Cung nam 2009, thi IMR trang binh thg gidi la 46%o, cic nude phit trien la 6%o, cac nirdc dang phat trien Ii 50%o Trong khu vyc Ddng Nam A, Viet Nam dung thii (ve IMR thap) sau cac nude Xingapo, Thai Lan, Malayxia, Branay Viec trien khai cac chuang trinh y te quoc gia (tiem chiing md rgng eho tre em, phdng chong sdt ret, lao, phdng chdng budn cd v i cic benh xa hdi, giam sat AIDS ) dang gdp phan Iam giim ti le mac vi chet cic can benh nguy hiem niy Hai bin Ti suat tit vong tre em dudi I tuoi (Hinh 2) cho tiiiy tmh hinh dugc cii thien rat manh d cac tinh, tiianh tir nam 1999 dSn 2009 IMR nam 1999 dao ddng tir I0,5%o (TP Ho Chi Minh) den 82,7%o (Kon Tum),_nam 2009 li tir 8,9%o (TP Ho Chi Mmh) den 47,7%o (Lai Chau) Cd sy thay doi nhat dinh mau hinh khdng gian ciia ti suit hi vong tre em dudi I tudi phan theo tinh tmng thdi ki niy Tudi thg trung bmh cita dan cu nude ta da ting ding kg, vdng 20 nim (1989-2009) da ting 7,6 tuoi (nam tang 7,2, nii tang 8,1 tuoi) Tuoi thg cua nii cao ban ciia nam tdi 5,4 tuoi (2009) Ciing vdi vigc nang tuoi thp chung ciia dan cu, thi khoing cich tuoi thg giira nii va nam se ting len tuong Iai Hinh - Bdn dd tudi thg &ung binh cua ddn eu ndm 1999 vd 2009 Tuoi thg trang binh cua dan eu phan hda manh giua cac tinh Nam 1999, tuoi thg thip nhit cua dan cu Ii tiiugc tinh Kon Tum (55,8 tuoi) v i cao nhat Ii d TP Ho Chi Minh (78,2 tuoi) Kpyiu Hpi nghf Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hgc Thii Nguyg|i Nam 2009, tuoi thg tmng binh thap nhat la d tinh Lai Chau (63,9 tudi) va cao nhit van Ii TP Ho Chi Mmh (75,9 tudi) Neu so sinh cac ban dd d hinh v i hinh 3, deu dugc lap thang chii giai theo cimg mpt phuong phip (d day li phuang phap phan bgc ty nhien), thi cd the nit nhan xet thii vi' Ban ve ti Ie tii vong tre em dudi tuoi v i ban ve tuoi thp tmng binh ciia dan cu giong nhu la am bin v i duong ban cua mdt tam hinh vgy Bdng - TuSi tho trung binh cita ddn cu 1989 1999 2009 1989 1999 Chung 65,2 68,2 -Nam 63,0 66,5 -Nt 67,5 70,1 j Chenh lech va tuoi thg giua nft va nam 4,5 3,6 2009 72,8 70,2 75,6 5,4 Trong cac nguygn nhan gay tu vong, chigm ti Ig cao nhit van li cic bgnh tmyen nhiem, ki sinh triing, suy dinh duong, thieu mau Tiep den li cic benh ve dudng hd hip, dudng tigu hoa Dang chii y la mdt so nguyen nhan gay tti vong chiem ti le cao d cic nude phit trien thi cung bat diu chiem ti le dang ke d nude ta, chang ban nhu bgnh ung thu, bgnh tim mach Tai nan giao thdng ciing la mdt nguyen nhan gay tu vong quan trpng Viec nhiem HIV va mic bgnh AIDS d mgt so nhdm din cu cd nguy co cao eiing dang trd moi quan tam chung cua cdng dong 2.3 Phan tich dgng thii ti suit sinh Nude tatrai qua hai cupc chien tranh khoe ligt, keo dii tit 1945 den 1975 "Quy lugt bii trir" phit trien din so sau chien tranh da dua den nhiing dinh cao ti suit sinh vio cuoi thgp ki 50, diu thgp ki 60 (d mien Bic) v i vio nhung nam cuoi thap ki 70 (trong ci nude) Hign nay, cdng tic ke hogch hoi gia finh thu hut sy no lyc ciia cic to chiic xa hgi va cac ca nhan, trd mgt bd phin hiru ca chien luge phit trien kmh t e - x a hgi cua nude ta Tuy nhien, vigc phan dau giim ti suit smh phy thudc rat Idn vao ket qui eua cupc vgn dgng d viing ndng thdn, noi cd ti suat sinh cdn cao, may thgp ki gin day cdn t ^ trung gin 80% dan so, va trang tiigp ki qua, dd thi hda tang t6c, thi ciing edn tgp trung khoing 70% dan so Mat khic mot loat cic nhan to kmh te - xa hdi chua that sy thugn lgi cho viec tiiay doi each nghT v i hinh vi smh san cua eic cgp vg chdng tre Tong ti suit sinh (TFR) cdn dugc ggi la "so tnmg binh ciia mpt phu nii d dg tuoi sinh de" Tdng ti suit smh tinh chung ci nude da giim tir 5,5 (giai dogn 1969-1974) xuong 4,85 (19781979), 3,80 (1988-1989), 2,3 (nam 1999) v i 2,03 (nam 2009) dudi miic sinh tiiay tii^ Day Ii co ging Idn vigc kiem soit ti Ig sinh Den vin cdn ton tgi sy khic bigt 5a«^ - Tdng tl sudt smh a cdc vung nam 1989,1999 vd 2009 Idn ve miic sinh giiia Cinudc; 3,8 2,33 2,03 thinh thi va ndng thdn, -Thanh thi 2,23 1,67 1,81 ciing nhu giiia cic vimg Nong thdn 4,27 2,57 2.14 fia Ii Idn, mac dii cac Mien nui vi tnmg du Bic Bp: 2,24 khic bigt niy da tiiu hep - Dong Bic (2,17) dang ke h ^ thgp Id - Tay Bac (2,46) (1989 2009), " t i Dong bang sdng Hong 3,03 2,12 Nguyen van la vimg cd Bic Tnmg Bp 4,29 2,32 miie sinh cao nhit ci Duyen hii Nam Trung Bg 4,61 2,15 nude, ke den Ii Tay Bic Tay Nguygn 5,97 2,65 D6ng Nam Bg va Bie Trang Bg Day 2,89 1,70 Dong bing sdng Ciiu Long 3,8 ciing li cic dia phuong 1,83 dan cu cd miic song t h ^ Ngudn: Kit qud diiu tra mdu - Tdng diiu tra ddn sd 1989, Tdng diiu tra d& hon cic viing khic Tuy sd vd nhd a 1999 Xa li ta Casd da lieu diiu b-a mdu 15%, _ ^ Tdng diiu b-a ddn sd vd nhd a 2009 Kpyeu Hpi nghf Khoa hgc Dia ly todn qudc ldn tha7 Dai hgc Thai Nguygn H§i Dia ly Viet Nam nhien, Tay Nguyen ciing la viing cd mire giim sinh nhanh nhat hai thap ki qua Tong ti suit sinh ciing giam manh d duyen hai Nam Trung Bd Miic sinh da klii thap d dong bang song Hong, Ddng Nam Bd va ddng bang song Cihi Long, dd Ddng Nam Bd vi Ddng bing sdng Cim Long cd miie sinh da thap dudi miic sinh thay the kha xa (Bang 5) Cic ban dd d hinh cho thay ro hon su phan hda khdng gian cua tdng ti suit sinh d nude ta vio hai thai diem 1999 vi 2009 Cong tic ke hoach boa gia dinh d khu vuc thi dugc thyc hien co ket qua tdt, dd d nong thdn van cdn ton tgi mpt khoing cich dang ke giiia nhan thitc ve siic ep dan sd va hanh vi sinh dg tren thyc te Dudng nhu cd su giang co ciia cic yeu td trayen thdng tmdc cic yeu to kinh te vitic dpng ciia chinh sich dan so, Tlieo Dy bio [6], thi TFR ci nude se giim xuong dudi 2,0 vdng nam tdi va den cuoi thjq) tnen 30, dau thgp nien 40 ciia the ki XXI thi on djnh d miic 1,85 khdng edn su khac biet giira thi va ndng thdn Vdi TFR d dudi miie sinh thay the v i tiep tuc giam, dong thdi tuoi thg ciia din cu tang Ien, thi dan so nude ta mac dii dang d giai dogn cd co cau dan so vang, nhung cung dang gii hda, va quy md dan so se dan di vio thg dn finh Bdng - Tdng ti sudt sinh (TFR) gid thiel cho mot s6 giai doan du bdo Hinh - Bdn dd Tdng tl sudt sinh ndm 1999 vd ndm 2009 Kpyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Dai hgc Thai Nguygn Hgi Dia Iy Viet Nam Md hinh sinh theo tuoi cua bdn nam (1989, 1994, 1999 va 2009) cho thay miic sinh (g giam d tat ca cac nhdm mdi ciia phu nii, ro nhat Ii d ba nhdm tuoi: 20-24, 25-29 va 30-34 (hinh 5) Dan so nude ta da chuyen tir md hinh sinh sdm (cyc dai d nhdm tudi 20-24) sang md hinh sinh mupn (cue dgi d nhdm tuoi 25-29), tinh chung ei nude va dae biet ro d khu vuc thj (( khu vyc ndng thdn, hign van la md hinh sinh sdm 15-19 I 20-24 25-: 30-34 giQ 35-39 • l999 40-44 45-49 • 2009 Hinh - Ti sudt sinh phdn theo dp tudi cua ngucn me CO CAU TUOI - Gl6l TINH 3.1 Ca cau tuoi Cho den cuoi thgp ki 80, dau 90 eiia the ki tmdc, dan so nude ta the hien ro net li mot dan so tre, vdi ti trpng cao cua cac nhdm tuoi trg, T h ^ dan so nam 1979 va 1989 cd day nd rOng Do ti 1? smh giam manh v i tuoi thp ctia dan cu tang len, hinh ding thip dan so (2009) thay doi mgnh, co hinh cua mdt la bo de, thu hep diy thap, nd rgng d cac nhdm tuoi trung nien, the hign cau tnic tuoi cua mgt dan so dang dan on dinh Su thu hep dot ngpt cua tiiap dan sd (nam 1989) sau dp tuoi 35 v i ti so gidi tmh thip (so nam tinh tren 100 nu) tii cic nhdm tuoi trang nien cho thay ro tac dpng cua cic eupc chien tranh dien su6t 35 nam, tir 1945 den 1979 Hai B^SS muai nam sau (2009), khoang thu hep niy da tien din Ien phia finh thap din so, "du am" ctia mdt thdi chien ^^^^^^Hl tranh khdi lua dang tit BSt din A , JE JH~"~^ , Trong- cic- tai lieu dan so hgc, ngudi ta quan tam den co ciu tuoi cua dan so thugc nhdm tuoi: dudi 15 (014 tuoi), 15-64 va 65 trd lgn (65+) Tl so phy fcugc dugc bine ti - - - ^ - - >- = = = , « * , » ^'"^ ^ - '^^P ^^" ^d ndm 1979, 1989 1999 vd 2009 (tinh theo % ddn s6 Kyyeu Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dfa Iptodn qudc ldn th'& H§i Dia ly Vigt Nam i hgc Thai Nguygn so giua dan so ngoai tudi lao ddng (d d&y quy udc Ii 0-14 vi 65+) so vdi dan so dp tuoi lao dgng (d day quy udc la 15-64) nudcta nam 1979, ti sd phu thugc chung la 89,9%, ti so phy thugc ciia tre em la gan 81 %, cua ngudi gii la 9% Khi nen kinh tg cd nang suit Iao ddng xa hpi cdn thap, ti sd phy thudc cao Ii ginh nang dan sd, mat khic mdt phan ddng tre em (nhat la d viing ndng thdn) sdm phai budc via tuoi lao ddng Dieu niy cd inh hudng xiu lau dai den vigc phat trien ngudn nhin luc Ti trpng cao ciia dan sd cac nhdm tuoi 0-4 vi 0-14 dat nhirng van dc cap bach ye van hoa, y te, giio due, giii quyet viec lim cho so cdng dan tuong lai Vin de phat trien ngudn nhan luc cang gay gat d cic tinh mien mil va trung du, d cic cdng ddng dan toe it ngudi Trong 30 nam qua, ti sd phu tiiupc tiep tuc giam, nhung ddng tiidi, dan so nude ta cung dang gia hda Nam 1989, ti so phy thugc chung li 77,7%, dd ti so phy tiiupc ciia tre em li 69,3%, ciia ngudi gia la 8,4% Nam 1999, tuong ting li 64,7%, 55,2% v i 9,5%, nam 2009 tuang itng li 44,7%, 35,5% v i 9,3% Nim 2009, dan so nude ta d vio thdi ki uu the thudc ve lye lugng Iao ddng, duoc ggi la tiidi ki "ca cau dan so vang", m i tiieo dinh nghia eua Lien Higp Quoc, tre em dudi 15 tuoi chiem dudi 30% va ngudi gii tii 65 tuoi trd Ien chiem dudi 15% tong dan so Theo Dy bao [6], thi tiidi ki "co ciu dan so vang" niy se ket tiuic vio quang nam 2040, ma ti cua dan so 65+ vugt miic 15% Bdng - Ti sdphu thupc ndm 2009 ciia thi gidi, cdc nhdm nude vd VietNam Ti le d i n so d u ^ 15 tuoi Ti Ie dan so 65 tuoi tror len The gidi 27 Cac nirdc phat trien Ti so phu thuQC (%) Tre em Ngircri ldn 41,5 12,3 53,8 17 16 25,4 23,9 49,3 Cdc nude dang phat trien 30 46,9 9,4 56,3 Cac nude dang phat trien (tiir Trung Qu6c) 33 53,2 8,1 6!,3 40 70,2 5.3 75.4 24,5 6,4 35,5 9,3 44,7 Cac mrdc kem phat trien nhdt Viet Nam Chung Ngudn: tinh todn lu 2009 World Population Datasheet; [JJ Trong ti so phu tiiudc d vung Dong bing sdng Cuu Long va Ddng Nam Bp d miic thip nhat ei nude, d Dong bing song Hong v i hau het cic tinh trang du Bic Bp d mitc trung binh ci nude, tiii chi tieu niy cdn kha cao d cac tinh mien mii Bie Bg v i cic tinh Tiy Nguyen Nam 2009 van cdn 10 tinh cd ti Ig tre em dudi 15 tuoi chiem tren 30% dan so, hay ndi each khic li cac tinh niy chua bude vao thdi ki cd "ca eiu dan s6 vang", dd li: Hi Giang, Lio Cai, Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Son La, Ninh Thuan, Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lik va Dik Ndng Tuoi trung vi ciia dan so (dp tuoi phan chia dan so thinh hai phin bing nhau: mdt nua so dan dudi tuoi dd v i mgt niia so dan d tren tuoi dd) da tang them gin 10 tuoi 30 nam, tir 18,3 (nim 1979) Ien 20,2 (nam 1989), 23,0 (1999) 28,0 (2009) Chi so gia hda (do bing ti so (%) dan so hioi 60+ so vdi dan so tiioi dudi 15) da tang tir 16,6 (1979) Ien 18,4 (1989), 24,3 (1999) va 35,5 (2009) Chi so gia hda ciia nude ta cao hon trung binh cua cic nude ASEAN, tuong duong Indonexia v i Philippin, nhung t h ^ han Xingapo va Thii Lan Ding chii y li d cic tinh Dong bing song Hong dan so cd xu hudng gii hda nhanh, chi so gia hda fi tmdc miic trang binh ca nude 10 " 15 namrT1ieoiDy^'baa^[6]rlhi toe dO gii hda dan so se gia tang nhiing thap ki tdi, ddi hdi Nhi nude phii sdm cd cac chien lupc, chinh sich kinh t e - x a hdi phii hgp doi vdi ngudi cao tuoi dang chiem ti trgng cang cao xa hpi Kpyiu Hdi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qude ldn tha Dai hgc Thai Nguyen Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Hinh -Bdn dd Ti sd phu thugc vd Chi sd gid hda ndm 2009 3.2 Ca ciu gidi tinh a nude ta, ti so gidi tinh (so nam so vdi 100 nii) ciia dan so phin anh tic d$ng cua chien tranh keo dii Tl so gidi tinh nam 1979 Ii 94,2%, vio logi t h ^ nhat the gidi Cugc song hoi binh dang keo ti so gidi tinh Iai gan so can bing tit 94,7% (nam 1989) len 96,4% (nim 1999) vi 98,1% (nam 2009) (xem tiiem Hinh 8) 0-4 10-14 20-24 3C^34 40-44 5054 6IM4 70-74 80-84 , -•—Tl s6 gi6i tinh 1979 -O—Tl sfi gift tinh 2009 \ Hinh - Ti sd gi&i tinh theo nhdm tudi, 1979 vd 2009 Kyyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha i Hgi Dia ly Vigt Nam Dai hoc Thai Nguygn Hinh - Bdn Ti sd gidi tinh sinh vd Ti sd gidi tinh ndm 2009 Tl so gidi tinh cdn chiu inh hudng mgnh bdi hien tugng chuyen cu Siic hiit ve lao dgng, cic ca hpi cd vigc lam doi vdi ngudi di cu d noi d^n, da lam thay doi ti so gidi tinh d ei noi di va nai den Trong thip ki 80 va 90 ciia the ki XX, xu hudng chuyen cu cd nhung tiiay doi, nen ti so gidi tinh ciing cd nhiing thay doi tuong iing Biic tranh tong the ve ti so gidi tinh phin theo tinh ciia nam 2009 khdng khac nhieu so vdi nam 1999 Ti so gidi tinh thip nhit li d dong bing sdng Hong, nai lign tyc nhieu nim cd cic luong di dan ndng nghiep tdi mien nui trung du Bic Bd, Tay Nguyen vi Ddng Nam Bp Tinh Thai Binh cd ti so gidi tinh thap nhat nam 1999 la 91,0%, den nim 2009 li 93,3% Tinh Binh Duang v i TP Ho Chi Minh cd ti so gidi tinh tiiip nhit nam 2009 (tuong ting Ii 92% va 92,2%) cd lien quan den vigc thu hiit nhigu Iao dpng nii den Iam viec tm cac khu cong nghiep, cic nganh dich vy va Iam dich vu gia finh Day ciing timg Ii hai nam dia phuang cd ti so gidi tinh thap nhat ci nude nam 1999 Ti so gidi tinh cao ro rgt d cic tinh Tiy Nguygn (cao nhit la Dik Lik 103,4% nam 1999; Dik Ndng 108,2% nim 2009) v i Quing Nmh, ' Bmh Phudc (104,2% v i 104,4% nam 1999; 104,3% v i 102,6% nam 2009), Lai Chiu v i Kon Tum (103,9% v i 102,6% nam 2009) Quing Ninh cd ti so gidi tinh cao, nhieu cdng nhan md li nam t^gjjdji tJT f^.^i- tinh Thaj Rinh, HAi nirrmg, Himfir Ygn, Nam Dinh, lim vigc tai md, nhung vg vin song it que Mgt nhung xu hudng dan so hgc dupc quan tam Ii sy mat can bing ti so gidi tmh sinh (SRB) Vao nam 2000, SRB ciia Vigt Nam l i 105 [7], rat gan vdi muc chuan ciia the gidi (104-106 trg em tiai/100 trg em gii) Tmh trung binh thdi ki 1999-2009, moi nam SRB ting tiiem gan 0,5 fiem phau tram de dgt tdi so 110,5