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NHUNG VXN Di Xk H O I DSUi r SU KHAC BI$T VE MUC SINH GIUA CAC VtlNG VA KHUYEN NGHI CHINH SACH DAN SO THICH HOP • GS TS NGUYfiN D I N H QXS D o sdm nhdn thflc dflpc tim qitan ttpng 2,11 (mflc smh thay the) vdo nam 2005, vd cua ddn sd ddi vdi sti phat triln kinh tl mflc sinh thdp van cd xu hfldng tilp tuc - xd hpi Dang va Nld nfldc ta da xdy gidm Nhfl vdy, phu nfl Viet Nam chi sinh sd diing, ban hdnh vd thilc hien nhilu chinh sdch chfla bang 1/3 deh day nfla thi ky Vile dan sd cd kit qud, nhflng ndi bdt nhdt, tap tnmg sinh di da chuyin tfl hdnh vi mang tinh tti nhat vdn Id chlnh sdch giam smb Md diu loat nhiin, ban ndng sai^ hdnh vi cd kl hoach, van ehinh sdch theo hfldng la Quylt dinh minh; tfl bj ddng sang chfl ddng; tfl sinh de it 216/CP ctia Hpi ddi^ Chinh phfl vl vile sinh de trdch nhilm sang sinh de ed ttach nhilm day cn hfldng dan, ban hanh ngdy 26-12-1961, vdi dfl hon; tfl sd Iflpng nhilu, chit Iflpng thip mue dieh: "VJ sttc khoe cda ngttdi me, vi hanhsang sd Iflpng it, chat Iflpng mdt ndng phuc vd hod thudn eua gia dinh, vi de cho viic cao Ddy thtic sti Id mdt nhflng biln ddi nudi day cdi dttdc chu ddo" xa hdi sdu sdc d Viet Nam nfla thi ky Sau hdn 50 nam kiln tti va diy manh kl qua Tuy nhiin, trinh dp phat triln khdng hoach hda gia dinh, linh vflc sinh sdn d nfldc dong diu (vl kinh tl, xa hdi, mdi trfldng) nin ta dd cd sti thay ddi can bdn Sd trung binh hien nay, mflc sinh vdn rdt khac biit gifla eac cfla mdt bd me tinh din hit tudi sinh de, gidm vfli^, cac tinh tfl 6,81 giai doan (1965-1969) xudng cdn Mflc sinh khdc bi|t gifla cdc vung sn Sd CON TRUNG BiNN COA MOT PHU NO VONG 1999 2009 eang Nam Bi 1,93 1,69 ftong bang sdng Citu Long 2,10 1,84 €dng bang sdng Hdng 1,% 2,11 BSc Trung B5 va duyIn hii mien Trung 2,71 2,21 Trung ilu vd miln nui phia B k 2,54 2,24 Tay NguySn 3,93 2,65 Bdng 1; Xu hudng gidm sinh cua cdc vimg giai doan 1999-2009 (Ngudn: Ban chid^o Tong dieu tra ddn so vd nhd d Trung Udng Ket qud Tong dieu traddnsdvdnh S nam 2009, Hi Ndi, 2010) TUYEN GiAOSlS 10-2015 67 NHUNG VAN dt XA IIOI Sd U|u Bdng cho thdy, mflc sinh hlln khd khde biet gifla d e vung dia ly efla Viet Nam Can cfl vdo mflc smh nam 2009, cd t h i chia ving ctia Vilt Nam nhdm Nhdm thii nhdt, bao gdm viing dd dat mtte sinh thay thi.B6 la: ddng bang sdng H d i ^ ddng bdng sdng Cflu Loi^ vd Ddng Nam Bp DJe biet, hdn 10 nam qua, Ddng Nam Bd ludn Id vflng cd mflc sinh thap nhat vd hien da giam sdu dfldi mflc sinh thay the phd Hd Chi Minh da Id 1,40, hlc gidm rdt sdu dfldi mflc smh thay thi, thdm chi thdp hdn mflc smh giai doan (2005-2010) cua mdt sd nfldc phdt triln, nhfl: My: 2,05, Phap: 1,89, Ha Lan: 1,85, Anh: 1,82, Canada: 1,52 0' Khdng chi Thdnh phd Hd Chi Mmh md 20 tuih, thdnh phd da d^t mtic tieu ctia Chilnlflpe Ngflpe lai, cflng cdn nhilu tinh d miln ntii phia Bac, TUy Nguyin, Bac T n u ^ Bp cd mflc sinh cao, binh qudn mdi pht,t nfl sinh hdn con, thdm chi tten con, nhfl: Lai Chdu: 5,07, Kon Tum: 5,04, tflc Id gdp hdn ldn sd binh qudn cfla mpt pht,i nfl d c tmh, Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh, Dd N i i ^ BmhDflong,HdNpiO> Nhdm thU hai, bao gdm vttng chtta dat mttc sinh thay thlld: Trung du vd miln nfli phia Bdc, Bae Trung bd vd duyIn hdi miln Trung vd vflng lay Nguyen Trong dd, mflc sinh efla vflng Tdy Nguyin ludn eao nhdt Nam 2009 van d mflc Sau 10 nam thtic h i | n Chiln Iflpc ddn sd 2,65 con/phii nfl, tflc la kha xa mflc smh thay (2001-2010), khodng d e h mflc smh gifla d c t h i Theo Tdng dilu tta ddn sd nam 1999, phti tinh, thdnh dd thu h ^ nhflng vdn st; khdc nfl l a y Nguyin de nhilu gip ddi phtj nfl Ddng bi|t dang ke Dd cd 41 thih vdi sd ddn Id Nam Bp Hi|n nay, khpdng d e h da dflpc 63.544.371 ngfldi, chiim 73,25 % t d l ^ sd ddn d thu h?p nhieu nhflng vdn cao hdn khoang 1,6 nfldc d^t mflc sinh thay thi Tuy vay, vdn edn tdi lln! Nhfl v|y mue tilu Chiln Iflpc ddn sd Vi|t 22 tinh, hie Id 1/3 sd tuih cfla Vi|t Nam vdi Namnhangnam2001-2010: "Bat mtte sinh thay 23.203.436 ddn, chiim 26,75 % tdng sd ddn, thi d vttng sdu, vttng xa vd vimgn^eo chdm chfla d^t mt^c tilu ndy Ddc biet, cd nhflng tinh nhdtvdondm20I0 "da khdng thtic hi|n dflpc mflc sinh gidm rdt sdu dfldi mflc sinh thay thi d vflng thudc nhdm hai Nam 2009, tdng sd va nhu:i^ tinh mflc sinh cdn khd cao (Bdi^ 2) ddn cfla vtmg ndy Id 35.007.371 ngfldi, chiim Sti khde bi|t ldn vi mflc sinh gifla d c vflng khoang 41% t d i ^ sd dan toan qude d e tilth, ddi hdi sti dilu chlnh mflc sinh hiin Mdc dfl cdc vflng thupc nhdm hai chfla d^t phdi cd quan tiilm ct; thi ma khdng nin ean dflpc m u c t i i u ve mflc sinh nhtmg xu hfldng thilp nhfl ddi vdi d c vflng, d c tinh thdm giam sinh ctia nhdm ndy rit rd rdng Ddc bi|t, chi gifla d c dia phflong tinh xu hfldng gidm sinh d l a y Nguyen diln Khoyln nghj vl chinh sdch nhanh nhdt Nlu nam 1999, binh quan mdi pht^ Bdi vdi chlnh sdch ddn sdqude gia: Cdn phdi nfl l a y Nguyin de khodng eon thi din ndm chuyin doi ttttrgngtdm ddn sd- kihoach hoagia 2009 eon sd ndy chi Id 2,65 hie Id giam tdi 1/3 dinh (BS-KHHGB) sang chlnh sdeh ddn sd vd Ddy la mflc gidm cao nhdt so vdi tat ea d c vflng phdt triin; xdy dunghd thdngphdp ludt viddn sd ttong d nfldc phtt hdp vdi Hiin phdp ndm 2013: cho phip cdc Mflc sinh rdt khdc b i | t gifla cdc tinh dia phudng xtt 1^ vdn di "mtte sinh" tngt edeh titih Mpt nhflng mtjc tieu quan trpng cfla hoift, phii hdp vdi tinh Unh thuc ti Chiln Iflpc ddn sd Vi|t Nam 2001-2010 ]k"dat miic sinh thay thi binh qudn todn qudc chdm nhdt vdo ndm 2005", nhflng tfl ndm 1999, "s6 himg bhih/phij nfl" cua Thdnh TUYEN GlAOSiS 10-2015 "Phdt triln bin vflng" Id mvic Uln chiln Iflpc ctia qudc gia Tnidc ddy, mflc sinh rdt cao, d l gdp phdn d?t dflpc mpc tilu ndy, Ddng vd Nhd nfldc djt "kl hojcb hod gia duih" Id ttpi^ NHCNG VAN Dt XA HOI TiNH SfiCON/PHUNO TiNH SOCON/PHUNO TP.Hd Chl Minh 1,45 Kon Turn 3,45 Binh Duong 1,70 Ha Giang 3,08 Cin Tho 1,72 Lai Chau 2,96 Long An 1,85 QuIngTri 2,85 BIRja-VUng Tiu 2,01 DSc Nong 2,72 Bang 2: Nhom tinh c6 mdc sinh thdp nhdt vd nhom Hnh cd mdc sinh cao nhdt ndm 2009 (NguSn: Ban Chi dqo tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd d Trung Udng: Kit qud Tong dHu tra ddn sd vd n d ndm 2009, Hd Ndi, 2010) tkm cfla chinh sach ddn sd la hoan toan hpp 1^ Hien nay, mflc sinh tinh chui^ pham vi cd nfldc da gidm bin vflng dfl
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