DAC DIEM HO NGHEO O VIET NAM: PHAN TICH MO HINH LOGIT VOil SO LIEU DIEU TRAMLfC SONG DAN CUVHLSS 2016 NGUYEN NGOCTOAN* Trong nhung thap ky qua, Viet Nam da dat duac nhung tuu Idn giam ngheo gan lien vdi ket qua tang trudng va phat trien kinh ti.Tyle ngheo doi tmh theo chuan ngheo cua Tong cue thong ke va Ngan hang The gidi giim xuong 9,8% so vdi mdc 20,7% nam 2010 Khoang 70% dan so Viet Nam dugc coi la an toan ve kinh te va 13% duac xep vao tang ldp trung luu toan cau^ Tuy nhien, nhiem vu giam ngheo nhdng nam tdi rat thach thdc nhung hg chua thoat ngheo cdn lai la nhung hg kho thoat ngheo nhat De giup hg ngheo thoat ngheo, can phii xac dinh nhung dac diem cua nhom hg Bai viet tap trung phan tich ve cac dac diem cua hg ngheo d Viet Nam TCr khda: hg ngheo, dac diem hd ngheo Over the past decades, Vietnam has achieved great success in poverty reduction associated with economic growth and development The poverty rate calculated following poverty line of the General Statistics Office and the World Bank dropped to 9.8% compared to 20.7% in 2010 About 70% of Vietnam's population is considered as economically safe and 13% are classified as global middle class^ However, the task of reducing poverty in the coming years is very challenging because the remaining households who have not escaped from poverty line are the most difficult ones to escape from poverty To help these poor households escape from poverty line, it is necessary to identify the characteristics of this group The paper focuses on analyzing the characteristics of poor households in \^etnam Keywords: poor households, characteristics of poor households Ngaynhan: - 1 - Ngay phan bien danh gia: - 1 - Ngay duyet dang: - - I.Datvande tinh theo quan sat, cam nhan hoac thdng ke Hien cd nhieu nghidn cdu phan tich vd eae dac thupc tinh don gian Chi cd mdt vai nghien cdu diem cua hp ngheo d nudc ta Tdy nhien, phan dinh lugng sd dung so lieu dieu tra xa hpi Idn eae nghien cdu chi ddng Iai d md ta dinh hpc.cbang han, nghien cdu cua Nguyen Thang va ^ cpng su (2006); cua Baulch va Vu (2011), Tuy ' TS NguySn Ngoc Toan - Hgc vien Chinh tri quoc nhien, cac ngiiien edu sd dung bp sd lieu dieu gia H6 ChiMmh tra td dau nhiing nam 2000, den khdng cdn cap nhat, Cdng vca su phat trien kinh te va tde dp SO 28 (12-2018) I TAP CHf KINH TE VA Q U A N LV ] 33 THl/CTIEN-KINH NGHIEM giam ngheo kha nhanh nhdng nam qua, tinh hinh va dac diem cua hd ngheo d Viet Nam cd the da cd nhieu thay doi Nghien cdu nhSm muc dich xac dinh cae dac diem hp ngheo d Viet Nam bSng phuang phap dinh lugng Tae gid sd dung sd lieu eua Dieu tra mdc sdng dan cu 2016 vdi md hinh hdi qui nhi phan Logit vdi bien phu thude la hp ngheo (neu ngheo bidn cd gia tri va khdng ngheo cd gia tri 0) Cae bien the hien dac diem cda hg ngheo bao gdm nhdm eae bien nhan khau hpc, dia diem dia ly hd eu trd, giao due, viec lam va didu kien tiep can kdt edu tang Ket qua eho thdy, cac ydu td nhan khau hge va vi tri dia ly,.,.anh hudng tdi kha nang mdt hp gia dinh bi xep vao loai hd ngheo, 2, Md hinh, sd lieu va bien so De xae dinh dinh lugng cac dac diem eua hd ngheo, phuong phap truyen thdng la ap dung md hinh logit nhi phan cd bidn phu thude Y vcd hai trang thai Md hinh Logit nhi phan dugc Berkson (1944) gidi thieu idn ddu klii nghien cdu kdt qua didu tri benh nhan.Trong md hinh Logit, bidn nhi phSn Y phu thupc vao mot vector X eae bidn giai thieh vdi gia dinh sai sd ngau niiien phan phdi logistics Md hinh hdi qui nhi phan Logit cd phucmg trinh nhu sau Prob[Y=l|X]= + ^^'P =A(Jt"P) Trong dd, Y la bien nhi phan nhan gia tri hoac gia tri 0, X la vector eac bien yeu td tac dpng den Y va bidn kiem soat, Prob {Y=l |X) la xae xuat de Y nhan gia tri vdi dieu kien X, la vector cae tham sd, gia dinh sai sd ngau nhien cua md hinh phan phdi logistics, Md hinh Logit tren dugc ap dung vao phan tich eae dae diem cda hd ngheo Cu the, bidn phu thugc la bidn ho ngheo cd gia tri ndu la hg ngheo va gia tri neu ia hd khdng ngheo Cac bidn giai thieh bao gdm cac bidn dae diem cua hd ngheo theo cac nhdm nh§n khau hpc, vi tri dia ly, dae diem giao due, viec lam va tidp can kdt cau tang Vdi eac bidn nhan khau hpc, nghien cdu tap trung vao cae bien ve qui mo hd, t^ le phu thudc, tudi chu hg cung vol cac bien nhi phan the hien hp cd phai hp dan tgc thieu sd khong, cd d vung ndng thdn khong, chu hp cd li di hay gda vg/chdng bay khdng, chu hp cd phcii la nu hay khdng Gid thuyet dat la hg cd qui md Idn, ty Ie phu thude eao, hg dan tpc thieu sd, hp vung ndng thdn, chu hp li di hoac gda vp, chdng, ehu hg la nu se cd xac suat ngheo cao hon Vdi cac bien sd ve vi tri dia ly, nghien cuu sd dung phan vung dia ly gom: Tay Bae, Ddng Bae, Dong bSng sdng Hong, Bae Trung Bg, TSy Nguyen, Duyen hai Nam Trung Bp, Ddng Nam Bp va Tay Nam Bp De md tci cac phan vung dia ly, cac bien gia nhi phan dugc sd dung Vdi phan vung, ta ed bien gia, vdi vung Dong b§ng sdng Hong dugc sd dung lam vung ca sd Cac bien lien quan den giao due bao gom so nam di hoc va cac bidn nhi phan the hien bac hpc ma ehu hd da hoan Khdng di hpc duoc sd dung lam thupc tinh ca sd Gia thuyet dat la trinh dd giao due cua chu bg ty le nghich vdi xae xuat ngheo De ludng anh hudng cua viec lam, nghien cdu sd dung cac bidn nlii phan ndu chu hp lam viec ndng ngiiiep hoac dich vu, lam khu vuc nha nudc, lam kinh doanh ca the, kinh doanh t u nhan hoae tSp the Anh hudng cda sd huu dat san xuat ndng nghiep cua hd cung dugc xem xet qua cac bidn ve dat cay hang nam, cay lau nam, dat thuy san, dat vudn Xae suat bp ngheo cung cd the chiu anh hudng bdi eae dieu kien ba tang Do khdng cd du so lieu, nghien edu chi sd dung bien sd nhi phan ludng tiep can cua hp viM dien ludi, nudc may va he thdng xu ly nudc Nhung bidn khdng chi ludng true tiep viec tidp can vcd dien, nudc ma qua dd, gian tiep ludng su phat trien tang tai dia ban sinh sdng eua hp Cac bien dupe ky vgng se quan be ty le nghich vdi xae xuat hg ngheo Md hinh Logit tren dugc ude Iugng vdi sd lieu Dieu tra mdc sdng dan eu 2016 Tong cue thdng ke thuc hien Cd 9359 hp md hinh, bao gdm 1092 hp ngheo va 8267 hd khdng 34 I T A P C H I K I N H T ^ V A Q U A N L Y I 5628(12-2015 Biing 1: Danh sach cac bien mo hinh Ten bien Hp ngheo 2016 Qui mo ho Ty le phu thupc Nil chu hp Tuoi chd hg Chu hp dgc than Dan tgc thieu sd Nong thon Tay Bac Dong Bac Bac Trung Bp Nam Trung Bg Tay Nguyen Dong Nam Bp Tay Nam Eg So nam di hpc Tieu hgc Trung hpc co sd Trung hgc phd thong Dai hgc Lam ndng nghiep Lam dich vu Di tam thue I^m nha nudc Hg ca the Hg tap the Hg tu nhan Dat cay hang nam Dat thuy san Dat cay lau lam Dat vudn Thue dat Cho thue dat Dien ludi Nudc may Xd ly nudc Mo ta Bien nhi phan co gia tri neu la ho ngheo nam 2016 va neu la ho khong ngheo So vien hg gia dinh Ty le tre em va ngudi gia tren tdng sd vien cda hp Bien nhi phan cd gi^ tri neu chd hg la nu Logarith tudi cda chu hg Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu chu hp da li di hoac gda vg/chdng Bien nhi phan cd gia tri ta neu chu hg la thuoc dan tpc khong phai Kinh hoac Hoa Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hp d nong thon Bien nhi phan co gia tri la ndu hp sinh sdng d TSy Bac Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hp sinh song d Dong Bac Bien nhi phan co gia tri 1^ neu hp sinh sdng d B5c Trung Bp Bien nhj phan co gia tri la neu hp sinh song d duyen hai Nam Trung Bg Bien nhi phSn c6 gia tri la ndu hp sinh sdng d Tay Nguyen Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hp sinh song d Dong Nam Bg Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hp sinh song d Tay Nam Bp -So nam di hpc cua chu hg Bien nhi phan co gia tri Ik neu chu hg hpc het tieu hgc Bien nhi phan c6 gia tn la neu chu hg hoc het trung hgc co sd Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la neu chd hg hpc het trung hgc phd thong Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la neu chu hg c6 trinh dai hpc trd len Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu chu hg lam ndng nghiep Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu chu hp lam dich vu Bien nhi phan cd gia trj la neu chd hp di lam thue kiem sdng Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu chu hp lam cho khu vuc cong Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la neu hg kinh doanh ca the Bien nhi phan c6 gia tri la neu hg kinh doanh tap the Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hg kinh doanh tu nhan Logarith dien tich dat cay hang nam cda hg Logarith dien tich dat mat nudc san xuat thuy san cua hg Logarith dien tich dat cay lau nam cua hp Logarith dien tich dat vudn cua hg Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la neu hg phai di thue dat san xuat Bidn nhi phan co gia tri Ici neu hp cho thue dat s ^ xuat Bien nhi phan cd gia tri la neu hp dugc sd dung dien ludi Bien nhi phan co gia tri la neu hp dugc sd dung nudc mciy Bien nhi phan co gia tri ta neu ho co thuc hien xd ly nudc sinh hoat S6 28 (12-2018) I TAP CH( KINH T^ VA QUAN LV | 35 THI/C T I I N - KINHJSIGJ^I|M ngheo Viec xae dinh hg la ngheo hay khong ngheo dua tren tra ldi eua cae ho vdi cau hdi hg ed dugc dia phuong xep vao dien hg ngheo nam 2016 hay khong Thue chat eua md hinh la so sanh thdng ke giua ho ngheo va hd khdng ngheo de tim cac dae diem eua bd ngheo Md hinh Logit duge udc Iugng bSng phdn mdm chuyen dung STATA 12.0 3.Phantidiketqui Bdng trinh b^y ket qua udc Iugng mo binh Logit md hinh tren Cac kdt qua dugc danh dau {*) la ede kdt qua cd y nghla thdng ke d mdc dp khac Cac he sd cd dau duong ham y quan he ty le thuSn vdi xac suat hp ngheo va ngugc lai, ddu Sm the hien ty le nghich Luu y rang, khae vdi hdi quy tuyen tinh da bien (OLS), eac gia tri tham sd thu dugc cua md hinh hoi qui Logit khdng the hien true tiep quan hd giua bien so va xae suat hp ngheo ma the hien quan he gida bien sd vdi ty sd log-odd, qua quan he giantieptdi xac suat hg ngheo Ket qua d Bang eho thay kha nang hp duge xep loai ngheo phu thugc vao nhieu dae diem Trude het, hd cd ty le phu thupc cao cd xu hudng la hp ngheo Day la dieu de hieu va eung thudng dugc eoi la mdt nhung nguyen nhan gay ngheo, bdi vi hd ed nhieu nhd hoac ngucd gia thi so ngucri di lam phai ganh nhieu ngudi phu thupc hem, Hd cd ehu bp Ii di hoac gda vg, chdng hay ehu hp don than eung dd trd hd ngheo bdi thidu lao ddng chinh tao thu nhap Ket qua eung eho thay tudi ehu hp ty le nghieb vdi xac xuat hp ngheo Cd nghla la, chu hp Idn tudi hon tiii it kha nang la hp ngheo hon, Dieu ed Ie la ehu hp Idn tudi da ed thdi gian dn dinh sinh ke, tich luy tai san, kinh nghiem san xuat so vdi cac chu hp tre tudi Xae sudt hp ngheo cao ban vdi cac hp dan tpc thieu sd va hp sdng d ndng thdn Theo ket qua hoi qui, kha nang hp ngheo xuat hien eao ban d vdng Tciy Bae va BSc Trung Bp va it khd nang xuat hien tai Ddng Nam Bd Dieu ngac nhien la xae suat hp ngheo ty Ie nghieb vdi qui md hp, Didu dd ed nghla la nhung hp ed qui md Idn hon, ddng vien han lai cd xac xudt nghdo thiip hon Lieu co phcii hp ed qui mo Idn hon thi cd nhieu lao dpng hon hoac gan vdi chu hp Idn tudi hon vol gia dinh nhieu the he, cd tich luy tai san va kinh nghipm lau nam hon? Dieu cd le can cd them cac nghien cdu sau hon dd l'^ gi^ Ve 5nh budng cda giao due va hgc vdn, kdt qua hdi qui Logit eho th^y rSng kh^ nang ngheo ty le nghich vdi so nam di hpc cua chu hg Ndu chu hp cd trinh dp td dai hgc trd len, hg it co kh^ nang la hd nghdo.TViy nhien, cdc bien nhi phSn tieu hgc, trung hgc ca sd va tnmg hoc phd thong khdng cd y nghla thdng ke, mac du cd dau am the hien quan he ty le nghich vol kh^ nang ngheo Lien quan den sinh kd cua hg, viee hp lam nong nghiep khdng nhat thiet di kem vdi ngheo Tliy nhien, neu ehu hp lam dich vu hay lam cho khu vuc nha nude, kha nang ngheo it xay hon Lam dich vu thudng cd thu nhap cao hem lam ndng nghiep, lam cho khu vuc nha nude cho thu nhap dn dinh ban so vdi cac khu vue khae Ngugc lai, neu chu hp phai di lam thue thi kha nang ngheo cung tang cao han Hp ciing it khd nang la hg ngheo ndu bp kinh doanh ci the hoac kinh doanh tu nhan Tinh trang ngheo cua hp ciing cho thay ed lien quan den sd hdu dat dai, Theo ket qua hoi qui, eae hp cd dat cay hang nam, dat cay lau lam va dat thuy san cang nhieu thi cang it khci nang ngheo Dat dai cd vai trd quan trpng vdi sinh ke eua nhung hO ndng dan nen viec sd hiiru nhieu dat giup hd ed ngudn sinh kd ndng nghiep tot hon Sd him dat vudn, do, khdng the hidn anh hudng tdi viec hd ngheo hay khdng ngheo Dieu cd the d phdn Idn cac hp gia dinh, dat vudn khong phai la noi s ^ xudt ndng san hang hda hoae san xuat dich vu Trong ket qu§ nghien cdu, viee hd phai thue dat hoae cho thue dat khdng lien quan thdng ke tdi trang thai ngheo hay khdng Ve tiep can tdng, nhung hp dugc tiep can dien Iu(^ cd xac suat ngheo thap hon NhCmg hp tiep can duge ngudn nude may cung it ed khd nang ngheo hon.Tliy nhien, viec hg cd sd dung 36 iTAPCHfKINHTevAQUANLYl 5628(12-2018) B jng 2: Ket quji irdc lUtfng mo hinh hoi qui Logit Tay Bac Dong Bac Bac Trung Bo Nam Trung Bo Tay Nguyen Dong Nam Bg He so -0,05" 0.94— 0,56— -0.7"» 0,2' 1,27— 0,37— 0,33" 0,22 0,59"* 0,25 0,04 -0,67"- Ten bien Dai hgc Lam nong nghiep Lam dich vu Di lam thue Lam nha nu6c Hg ca the Hp tap the Hg tu nhan Dat cay hang nam Dat thuy san Dat cay lau lam Dat vudn Tay Nam Bg So nam di hgc Tieu hpc Trung hpc CO sd Trung hgc thong -0.01 -0.11"' -0.02 -0.3 -0,34 Cho thud dat Dien ludi Nudc may Xii ly nudc He so chan Ten bien Qui mo ho Ty le phu thugc Nii chu ho Tuoi chu ho Chu ho dpc than Dan toe thieu so Nong thon Thue ih He so -1,64"' 0,18 -0.35" 0.37"' -1,4"" -0.45" 0.008 -0.48" -0,05"* -0.09"* -0,06"* -0,003 0,11 -0,3 -1,05"* -0,52*" -0.82 1,86 Ngudn: Ket gui udc lugng md hinh bang phan mem STATA Ghi chu: *'* co y nghla thong ke dmdc 1%; *': co y nghia thong ke d mdc 5%; ' co y nghia thong ke d mdc 10% bien phap xd ly nude bay khdng khdng cd anh hudng ed y nghla tdi xac suat ngheo Nhu vay, cac ket qua thu dugc kha phu hgp vdi ky vpng, ngoai trd dac diem eua qui md hd eae hp ngheo Cac ket qua cung thdng nhat vdi nhieu ngliien cufu djnh tinh cting nhu dinh Iugng va ngoai nudc ve cac dac diem cua hd ngheo lidn quan den nhan khau hpc, vi tri dia ly, trinh giao due, viee lam, sd huxi dat dai va tiep can tang K^ luan va ham y diinh sach Ket qua hdi qui logit eho thay, hp ngheo ed dae diem la ty le phu thude eao, ehd hg tre tudi, chu hp la ndt gidi, da Ii di hoac gda vg/ehong, la ngudi dan toe thidu sd, Xac suat ngheo eung cao hon neu hp sdng d ndng thon, song d vung TSy Bae hoae Bdc Trung Bp, Giao due va viee lam ed anh hudng Idn den hg, Chu hp cd trinh dp cao hon, cd viec lam khu vuc nha nude hoae kinh doanh ca the, kinh doanh dieh vu thi hg it ed khci nang rgi vao tinh trang ngheo Hd eung it kha nang ngheo neu sd hOru nhieu dat dai eanh tac, du la dat hang nam hay lau nam, hoac dat mat nudc de nudi trdng thuy san Nhung hp d vung cd tang tdt hon, tiep can dugc dien ludi, nudc may cung it cd kha nang ngheo Cac ket qua eho thay de gidp ngudi dan thoat ngheo thi can sd dung da dang cac bien phap, Mgt la, can cai thien dac diem nhan khau cua hp ngheo theo hudng giam ty Ie phu thugc, Dieu ham y can cd eae bien phap khuyen khich cae hp ngheo, hp dan tpc thieu sd sinh it S628(12-2018)|TAPCH(KINHTEVAQUANLy| 37 THUCTIIN-KINH NGHIEM N6ng din Miin ISy thu ho^ch Ma Anh:TTXVN eao nhan thuc cda cae hd gia dinh ndi ehung, hp hon, Hai la can quan tam nang cao trinh dp giao ngheo ndi rieng due d eac vung ed ty Ie hd ngheo eao vi giao due tdt hon se lam tang kha nang thoat ngheo cua hd Ba la, quan tam hd trp dat eanh tae cho cae hp TAI LifiU THAM KHAO ngheo vi hp ngheo ehu yeu sdng dua vao san 1) Nguyen Thing, Le Dang Trung, Vd Hoang Dat va xuat ndng nghiep va dat san xuat la yeu to dau Nguyin Thu Phuang (2006) "Poverty Poverty Reduction vao quan trpng Day cung la thach thdc ddi vdi and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam ", Background paper for eac dia phuong dien tieh dat canh tac ban Chronic Poverty Report 2008-2009 che VI the, can ed bien phap bao toan va phat 2) Baulch, B and H.DVu (2011) "R>verty Dynamics in Viettrien quy ddt san xuat, han ehe chat pha rdng, nam 2002 to 2008" in Baulch B (Ed) Why Poverty Persists' du canh du eu va chuyen doi mue dieh sd dung Poverty dynamics in Asia andAh^ica Cheltenham, UK, Eddat ndng nghiep, vi/ardElgar, trang 219-54 Bon la, tiep tue dau tu phat tnen ket cau 3) World Bank (2018) "Climbing the ladder: Poverty reductang tai nhirng vung cd nhieu hd ngheo nhu Tay tion and shared prosperity m Vietnam", Vietnam poverty Bae, BSe Trung Bg vda giup phat trien kinh te and shared prosperity updated report 2018 hang hda, thuang mai dich vu, vua gidp nang 38 I T A P C H I K I N H T ^ V A Q U A N L Y I 5628(12-2018 ... Hp ngheo 2016 Qui mo ho Ty le phu thupc Nil chu hp Tuoi chd hg Chu hp dgc than Dan tgc thieu sd Nong thon Tay Bac Dong Bac Bac Trung Bp Nam Trung Bg Tay Nguyen Dong Nam Bp Tay Nam Eg So nam di... dung md hinh logit nhi phan cd bidn phu thude Y vcd hai trang thai Md hinh Logit nhi phan dugc Berkson (1944) gidi thieu idn ddu klii nghien cdu kdt qua didu tri benh nhan.Trong md hinh Logit, bidn... ngheo kha nhanh nhdng nam qua, tinh hinh va dac diem cua hd ngheo d Viet Nam cd the da cd nhieu thay doi Nghien cdu nhSm muc dich xac dinh cae dac diem hp ngheo d Viet Nam bSng phuang phap dinh