Một số mô hình dự báo sự thay đổi hành động tham gia xây dựng nông thôn mới của người dân và thái độ e ngại của họ về những hiện tượng tiêu cực có thể xảy ra

MOT SO MO HINH DLJ BAO sa THAY DOI HANH DONG THAM GIA XAY DL/NG NONG THON M | CUA NGUOI DAN V A THAI DO E NGAI CUA HO VE NHQNG HIEN TUONG TIEU c u e CO THE XAY RA'» PGS.TS L6 Thj Thanh Hi/ang Vien Tdm ly hgc • T O M TAT DO- lieu khdo sdt Iren 659 nguoi ndng ddn lai xd thudc Hd Ndi, Nam Dinh vd Thdi Binh vdi gidi tinh, tudi, trinh hoc vdn khdc Kel qud phdn tich hdi quy bdi cho ihay, mot sd yeu Id gdm y thuc cita ngirdi ddn ve Irdch nhiem hap tdc vdi chinh quyen xdy dung vd cdi thien nhung ITnh vuc khdc cua cuoc sdng ndng thdn, tdm ly sdn xual nhd, ndng luc cdn bg ca sd, nhdn thiic cua ngudi ddn ve nong thdn mdi, tinh y lai vd ddnh gid ciia hg ve nhirng thay ddi dai sdng qud trinh xdy dung ndng thdn mdi Id nhiing yeu to cdn dugc quan ldm xdy dung cdc bien phdp nhdm cdi thien thdi vd hdnh dong tham gia xdy dung ndng ihdn mdi cita ngudi ddn Tir khoa: Nong thon mdi; Nong ddn Xdy dung nong thon mdi Ngdy nhdn bdi 9/12/2015: Ngdy duyel ddng bdf 25/3/2017 ABSTRACT The survey data was collected from 659 farmers m communes in Ha Noi, Nam Dinh and Thai Binh with difference about gender, age, educational levels Multiple regression analysis showed that individuals' awareness on their responsibility of cooperating with Government's responsibility to construct and improve various aspects of rural life, psychological specifics of small business, capacity of govermental officials at grassrool level, famers ' understanding of new rural, their dependence and their assessment on social changes occurring during the building up of new rural areas are critical faclors that need lo be concerned when developing solutions lo improve individuals' attitudes and behaviors involving new rural movement Keywords: A new rural area: Famer; Activities in contriiciing a mw rural area TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, So (217), - 2017 Trong thuc t i cuoc s6ng, thai dfl va htoh dpng ciia n^ffi lu6n chju tac d6ng dflng thoi cua nhiiu yiu t i khac nhau, Vi vSy, mat tiip c|in nghien ciiu theo huong ghi nhan tic d6ng dSng thffi cila nhieu yiu t6 len nhiing hiSn tugng tSm ly dugc nghien cttu sS cho phep dua dugc nhihig du bao sat hon vffi thirc ti Do do, cac bi^n phip dugc d i tren ca sd nhiing du bao d6 cung kha thi hon Viec tim hiiu m6t s6 m6 huih du bSo sir thay doi hanh ddng tham gia xay dung nong thon mffi cila nguffi dan n6ng th6n va thai e ngai cua hg vi nhihig hien tugng tiSu cue co thi x4y dja phuong triin khai d6 an xSy dung n6ng thfln mffi cung di theo huiimg TSm ly ngu6i la mgt thi th6ng nhdt, cac hien tugng, cac dSc diim tSm ly luon nam m6i quan he chit che vffi nhau, hien tugng, dac diim tam ly co the 14 yiu t6 co anh huffiig den hien tugng, dac diim tam Iy khac, dong thffi lai chiu tac dgng cua nhihig yiu to Viec xac djnh cac m6 hinh d^ bao thudc vao chS nguffi nghien cttu xem hien tugng nao la biin dOc ISp va hien tugng n4o la bidn phu thuoc Neu cho rang, x6t dSn ciing, hiSu qui chuong trinh xay dung nong thon mffi phu thuoc vao thai d5, dac bi$t la vao hanh dflng tham gia xSy dung nong thon mdi cua nguffi dSn thi nhttng yiu ti khac co thi dugc xem la yiu t i tac d6ng I Phinrag phap nghiSn ciru Mdu nghien cuu: Miu gom 659 nguffi dan ti-a Iffi bang hoi tai xa thuoc Ha N6i, Nam Dinh va Thai Bmh vffi giffi tinh, dp tuoi, trinh dS hgc vdn khac Khdch thi tham gia phong vdn sSu gom 22 nguffi khong thu6c miu khach thi tham gia tra IM bang h6i Khao sat dugc thirc hien thang nam 2013 Cdng cu: Phugng phap thu thap dtt lifiu chu yiu la bang hoi va phong vdn siu Trong bang hoi co mgt sg thang dugc xay dung nhSm tim hiiu hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ngng thgn mm cua nguffi dSn, thai e ngai cua hg vi nhttng hi$n tugng tieu cue co thi xay dja phuang triin khai di an xSy dung nong thon moi va mgt s6 yiu t i tac dgng din hanh dgng va thai do cua hg M6i menh de cac thang diu co phuang an trd 16i, ttng vai muc diim ttt den Y nghia cua cac diim s6 dugc thiit ki nhu sau: Diim cang cao thi mttc d6ng y cua nguffi fra Idi dii voi ngi dung dugc hoi cang cao Cu thi, vffi cac thang v6 thai e ng^i, tam ly san xudt nho va tinh y lai cua nguffi dan, diim cang cao thi cac dac diim tam Iy cua nguffi dan cang thi hien ro Vffi cdc thang lai (hanh dgng tham gia xay dyng nong thon mffi ciia ngudi dan; danh gia cua ngudi dan vi nSng Iuc; danh gia cua ngudi dan vi phdm chdt can bg; tinh than hgp tac cua ngudi dan vdi chinh quyin xiy dung va cdi thidn ^'^ TAP CHI TAM l y HOC, sa' (217), - 2017 nhOng ITnh vuc khac cua cuoc s6ng nong thon; quan he cong dong t^i dja phuang; nhan thuc cua ngu^i dan vh xay dung nong thon moi; danh gia cua nguoi dan v^ nhung thay d6i san xudt; danh gia ciia nguoi dan v^ nhung thay doi doi s6ng; danh gia cua nguoi dan ve nhiJng thay doi hoat dpng chinh quyen va doan thS), diem cang cao thi nguM dan cang co nhiJng danh gia tich cue ve cac v4n de dugfc hoi Dp tin cay cua cac thang dao dpng tir 0,67 den 0,88, do co the su dung dugc d6 khao sat thuc tiin Cac phep thong ke chii yeu dupe sii dung la phan tich diem trung binh, phan tich tuong quan va hoi quy Trong mpt so truang hop can thiet, ham IglO da duac su dung de quy di6m danh gia cac yeu to ve cung mpt thang diem II Ket qua nghien cij-u Cdc mo hinh du- bdo hanh vi xay dung nong thon m&i cua ngiroi dan Trong nghien ciiu nay, hanh dpng tham gia xay dung nong thon mdi va thai dp e ngai cua nguoi dan ve nhung hien tucmg tieu cue co the xay dja phuang trien khai d^ an xay dimg nong thon mdi duac xem la nhiJng bien phu thupc va 10 yeu to sau day dupe xem la nhung bien tac dpng, gom: danh gia ciia ngudi dSn ve nang luc; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve pham chat can bp; tinh than hop tac ciia ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen xay dung va cai thien nhiJng ITnh vuc khac ciia cuoc song nong thon; quan he cong dong tai dja phuong; tam ly san xuat nho ciia ngudi dan; tinh y lai ciia ngudi dan vao Nha nude va chinh quyen cac cap; nhan thuc cua ngudi dan ve xay dung nong thon mdi; danh gia cua ngudi dan ve nhiing thay doi san xuat; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve nhung ihay doi ddi song; danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve nhung thay doi hoat dpng chinh quyen va doan the Phep phan lich tuong quan va hdi quy cd the cho phep du doan muc dp lac dpng ciia nhiJng yeu to tam ly neu iren den hanh dpng tham gia xay dung nong thdn mdi cua ngudi dan cung nhu thai dp cua hp lien quan den qua Irinh Bdng I: Ket qud phdn tich hoi quy bdc nhdt Bien tac ctong Bien phu thuoc Hanh dong ciia ngucri Thai e ngai cua ngu'M dan tham gia xay dung (Ian dja phvong xay nong thon moi dung nong thon moi He so tirong He so hoi He sti tu'ong He so hoi (|uan r quy r^ quan r quy r' Phain chat can bo 0,308** 0.095*** -0,315** 0,099*** Nang Uic can bo 0.230** 0,053*** -0.308** 0,095*** TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, So (2 i 7), - 2017 Tinh thin hap tac cua ngu6i dan vai chinh quyen Thai dp e ngai cua nguofi dan dia phuang xay dung nong thfin mai 0,456** 0,208*** -0,231** 0,054** -0,213** 0,045*** Quan he cong d6ng a dia phuang 0,179** 0,032** -0,210** 0,044*** Tam ly san xuit nho cua nguai dan -0,262** 0,069*** 0,425** 0,180*** Tinh y lai vao Nha nuac va chinh quyen cua nguai dan Khong tuang quan 0,351** 0,123*** Nhan thuc cua nguai dan ve xay dung nong thon mai 0,25** 0,061*** -0,31** 0,094*** Danh gia ciia nguoi dan ve nhung thay doi san xuat 0,284** 0,081*** -0,227** 0,051*** 10 Banh gia ciia nguoi dan ve nhirng thay doi ddi song 0,347** 0,120*** -0,307** 0,095*** 11 Danh gia ciia nguai dan ve nhirng thay doi hoat dong chinh quyen va doan the 0,220** 0,068**» -0,196** 0,038** Ghi chii: *•• khip < 0.001: •* khip < 0,01 Ket qua phan tich tuong quan va hdi quy bac nhat cho thSy, niu chua tinh den thai cua ngudi dan thi co biin tac dgng co tuong quan thuan va biSn CO tuang quan nghich vdi hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi cua hg (trir tinh y lai) Tir gia tri cua cac he sd tuong quan cd the thay ring, nang luc, pham chat ciia can bg, y thirc vi trach nhiem hgp tac ciia ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen xay dung que huong, quan he cdng ddng d dja phuang, nhan thuc cua ngudi dan ve xay dung nong thdn mdi va nhOng thay ddi ddi song, san xuat va hoat dgng cua chinh quy6n dugc cai thien thi tinh tich cue hanh dgng cua ngudi dan tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi dugc tang len, ngugc lai, ngudi dan cang thi hien ro tam ly san xukt nhd thi tinh tich circ hanh dgng cua hg cang giam TSt ca yiu td tam ly neu tren diu cd tac ddng den hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan, dd tinh than hgp tac cua ngudi diin vdi chinh quyjn xay dung va cai thien nhimg linh vuc khac cua cugc sdng xa hoi ndng thdn la hiin cd ty le giai thich cao nhat sd cac yiu td dugc xem xet mgt each ddc lap, khoang 20,8% nhirng thay ddi hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan Biin CO ty le giai thich cao thii hai la danh gia cua ngudi dan vi nhirng thay ddi ddi sdng giai thich dugc 12.0% nhirng thay diii hanh ddng cua ngudi dan TAP CHITAM LV HOC, Sd4 (217), 4-2017 Bang 2: Bon mo hinh tdc dgng toi icu den hdnh dgng tham gia xdy dung nong thon mai cua nguai ddn * Beta Mircy nghia (p) 0,574 0,000 3/o hinh 1: r' = 0,330; hdng S6B = 0,328: p < 0,001 ! Tinh thdn hop tac cua nguai dan vai chinh quyen Mo hinh 2: r' = 0,392; hdng soB = 0,237; p< 0,001 Tinh than hpp tac cua nguai dan vdi chinh quyen 0,515 0,000 Danh gia cua nguofi dan ve nhimg thay doi dai song 0,256 0,000 Md hinh 3: r' = 0,422; hdngsoB = 0,261; p 0,8) Bien pham chat can bd dugc giii lai mirc dd tac ddng ciia nd den hanh ddng ciia ngudi dan manh han so vdi hiin nang lire (trong hdi quy dan nhat) Nhu vay, cd tat ca bien tac dgng d6n hanh dgng ciia ngudi dan tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi dugc dua vao phan tich hdi quy bdi Ket qua phan tich hdi quy bdi stepwise cho thSy cd bdn md hinh tac ddng tdi uu, gdm: 1) Cai thien nhin nhan ciia ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quySn (giai thich dugc 33,0% nhirng thay ddi hanh ddng cila ngudi dan); 2) Cai thien ddng thdi ca nhin nhein ciia ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quyen va nhirng thay ddi ddi sdng ngudi dan va cdng ddng qua trinh xay dung ndng thdn mdi (giai thich dugc 39,2%); 3) Cai thien ddng thdi ca nhin nhan cua ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quyen, nhirng thay ddi ddi sdng ngudi dan va cdng ddng qua trinh xay dyng ndng thdn mdi va nang cao nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ve xay dyng ndng thdn mdi (giai thich dugc 42,2%); 4) Cai thien ddng thdi ca nhin nhan ciia ngudi dan ve trach nhiem hgp tac vdi chinh quyen, nhirng thay ddi ddi sdng ngudi dan, cdng ddrig, nang cao nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan ve xay dung ndng thdn mdi va giam thieu tam ly san xuat nhd ciia ngudi dan (giai thich dugc 43,9%) Tir nhirng ket qua hdi quy bdi neu tren, cd the xay dung cac phucmg trinh du bao su thay ddi hanh dgng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi cua ngudi dan tir nhung thay ddi ciia cac bien tac dgng Chang ban, vdi md hinh 4, chung ta cd phuang trinh sau: Hanh ddng tham gia xay dung ndng thdn mdi ciia ngudi dan ^ 0,293 + 0.485 (y thilc vi trach nhiem hgp tac) + 0.199 (danh gia cua ngudi dan vi nhu'ng thay doi ddi sdng) + 0,173 (nhan thirc ciia ngudi dan vi xay dung ndng thdn mdi) - 0,138 (tam ly san xuSt nhd ciia ngudi dan) T rong md hinh nay, y thirc vc trach nhiem hgp tac ciia ngudi dan la bien CO tac ddng manh nhat (Beta = 0.485) va tam ly san xuit nhd eiia ngudi dan la bien cd tac dgng y6u nhSl (Beta = -0.138) Vdi phep hdi quy bdi, cd Ihi thiy ring, ca biSn dugc lua chgn di dua viio xu ly thi tac ddng cua bdn yiu td la phim chit can bd, quan he ngudi lai cdng ddng, danh gia ciia ngudi dan vi nhirng thay ddi san xuit va danh gia cua ngudi dan ve nhung thay ddi hoat dgng cua chinh quyjn TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, Sd4 (217), - va cac doan thi din hanh dpng tham gia xay dimg nong thon mdi cua nguai dan bi giam thiiu rSt nhiiu (khong y nghia thdng ke) Nhu vay, xay dimg cac bien phap nham tich cue hoa hanh dong tham gia xay dung ndng thon moi ciia nguai dan can chu y den bon yeu to quan da ducrc chi mo hinh hoi quy boi tren day, dac biet la yeu to y thirc vl trach nhiem hop tac ciia ngucri dan Mo hinh dijr bdo thdi dd e ngai cua ngu&i dan ve nhirng hien ttrffng tieu ctrc co thi xdy khix&y dimg ndng thon m&i Tren thyc tl, hanh vi cua mpt ca nhan ve mot v4n de nao khong phai luc nao cung nh§t quan vdi thai dp ciia hp, nhien, nhieu truang hop, thai dp van dinh hudng hanh vi Vi vay, ban d^u chung toi cho rang, thai dp e ngai cua ngudi dan ve nhung hien tupng tieu cue co the xay dia phuang x^y dvmg nong thon mdi se co tac dong tieu cue khong nho den hanh dpng tich eye tham gia xhf dyng nong thon mdi ciia hg Ket qua phan tich tuong quan cho thay giua hai yeu to co moi tuong quan trai chieu nhung khong manh (r ^ -0,231; p < 0,01) Nhin chung, ngudi dan cang e ngai ve nhitng hien tupTig tieu cue cd the xay dia phuang trien khai de an xay dyng nong thon mdi thi tinh tich eye cua hp vice tham gia xay dyng nong thon mdi cang giam nhung moi quan he chua that ro ret Ket qua phan tich hoi quy bac nhat cho thay, nhung thay doi thai dp e ngai cua ngudi dan ve nhung hien tugng tieu cue co the xay dia phuang trien khai de an xay dung nong thon mdi chi giai thich duac 5,4% cho nhimg thay doi hanh dpng ciia ngudi dan (vdi nhimg bieu hien dupe tim hieu nghien cuu nay) Co the nhirng dien bien ddi song xa hoi nong thon nhieu nam qua da tao moi quan he thieu chat che giua hai bien neu tren Ket qua phong van sau ngudi dan lai nhiJng dia ban dupe khao sat cho thay hien tuang tham o, tham nhung Igi ich nhdm cung da xay tai nhiing dia phuang Tuy nhien thudng la nhirng vu viec nho dugc ngudi dan ban tan, chia se thong tin cho mpt each khong chinh thuc va hp cung khong cd dugc nhimg bang chirng cu the de khang dinh mgt hien tuong cu the nao Nhu \-ay nhirng ban khoan, nghi ngd \'an ton tai, song co the tinh thiiu can cu ro rang ciia chiing da lam yeu di tac dpng ciia thai den hanh dpng ciia ngudi dan Mac dii vay, thai dp am tinh neu tren van co tac dgng tieu eye din tinh tich eye tham gia xay dung nong thon mdi ciia ngudi dan Vi vay, cai thien thai cua hg theo hudng lich cue van !a vice can lam, Ket qua phep phan tich tuang quan eho ihay cd biin (danh gia ciia ngudi dan ve nang luc; pham chat can bg; y thiic ve trach nhiem hgp tac ciia ngudi dan vdi chinh quyen irong xay dung va cai thien nhirng ITnh vuc khac ciia cugc song nong thon; quan he egng dong tai dia phuang; nhan thirc TAP CHI TAM LV HOC, Sd (217), - 2017 19 cua ngudi dSn vi xSy dung ndng thdn mdi; danh gia ciSa ngudi dan v6 nhihig thay ddi cac ITnh vuc s&i xuit, ddi sdng vk troiig hoat ddng cua^chinh quydn va cac doan thi) cd tuong quan nghich va biin (tam 1^ san xuat nhd cila ngudi dan, tinh -j lai ciia ngudi dan vao Nha nude va chinh quyen cac cip) cd tuong quan thuan vdi th4i e ngai cHa ngudi dan ve nhOng hito tugng tieu cvc cd thi xay dia phuong triin khai dl an xSy dyng ndng thdn mdi Nhu vay, cd ihl du doan ring, cai thien nhiing yiu td cd tuang quan nghjch thi thai dg e nMi cua ngudi dta se giam di, ngugc lai, ngudi dSn cang y lai vao chinh quyin, cang thi hien rd tam Iy san xuit nhd thi thai e ngai cua hg se tang Kit qua hdi quy bac nhit cho thiy, tam ly san xuit nhd la bien cd ty le giai thich cao nhit, khoang 18,0% su thay ddi cila thai e ngai cua ngudi dSn sd cac yiu td dugc xem xet mdt each ddc lap Bi6n cd miic giai thich cao thii hai la tinh y lai, giii thfch dugc 12,3% sy thay ddi cila tSm ly e ngai Kit qua cd thi phdn anh trudng hgp: tac ddng cua co che tSm ly nao dd, cd thi libilng ngudi c6 tam I^ s4n xuit nhd hay cd tinh y lai thi thudng that sy cd thdi vl nhihig hien tugng tieu cue cd the xay dja phuang trien khai dl an xay dung ndng thdn mdi nhung cung cd the thai dd ctia hg chi la cai cd dl hg bao bien (bao vS) cho nhimg biiu hiSn tam Iy tri trS eda hg Mgt iin nOa, nhimg sd ligu thu dugc tit khao sat thyc tien cho thiy, nhirng yiu td tSm ly tich eye cua ngudi thudng cd tac ddng manh den nhiing hinh ddng tich cue cua hg ban la den yiu td ti6u cue, ngugc lai, nhiing yiu td tSm ly tieu cue cd tac ddng manh din nhung thai tifiu cue hon la den nhiing hanh ddng tich eye Bdng 3: Bdn md hinh tdc ddng tdi uu den thdi e nggi cua ngudi ddn ve nhiing hien tugng tieu cue cd the xdy dia phuang xdy dung ndng thdn mdi* Beta Mirc y nghia (P) 0,375 0,000 Md hinh J: r' = 0,141; hdng sd B = 0,177; p < 0,001 1 Tam ly san xuit nho Mo hinh 2: r' = 0,224; hdng SSB = 0,538: p < 0.001 Tam ly san xuat nho 0,312 0,000 Nang lire can bo -0,295 0,000 20 TAP CHI TAM Lf HOC, S6'4 (217), - 2017 Mo hinh 3: r'=0 304; hone SSB = 0.491; p