2012 DEMOGRAPHIC STATE OF THE STATE REPORT OKLAHOMA STATE AND COUNTY POPULATION PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2075 Steve Barker, MBA Sr. Research Analyst/Program Manager Policy, Research and Economic Analysis Division Oklahoma Department of Commerce 1 | P a g e Executive Summary Oklahoma: Statewide Population 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts 6,000,000 5,560,007 5,000,000 3,751,351 4,000,000 3,450,654 3,145,585 3,025,290 2,559,229 2,328,284 3,000,000 2,396,040 2,336,434 2,233,351 2,028,283 2,000,000 1,657,155 1,000,000 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Oklahoma Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Oklahoma’s population is projected to top 5 million by the time the state celebrates its 150th birthday. By the 2020 Census, Oklahoma’s population will top 4 million By the mid 2050s, Oklahoma’s population will top 5 million By 2075, Oklahoma’s population will top 5.5 million Oklahoma’s population is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.73% over the next 65 years, equivalent to the US Census Bureau’s most recent national growth forecasts through 2050. The Census Bureau does not have state level population forecasts. 2 | P a g e Counties surrounding present day Tulsa and Oklahoma City metro areas are forecast to see substantial population growth. In 2010, the 14 counties currently included in the Tulsa and Oklahoma City MSAs combined to represent 58.4% of the state’s total population but by 2075, those same 14 counties are forecast to represent 64.2% of the state’s total population. Tulsa and Oklahoma counties alone will combine to represent 35.6% of the state’s population. 2010 Population for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs Creek 69,967 Canadian Okmulgee 40,069 Cleveland Osage 47,472 Grady Pawnee 16,577 Lincoln Rogers 86,905 Logan Tulsa 603,403 McClain Wagoner 73,085 Oklahoma Total Tulsa MSA 937,478 Total OKC MSA Percentage of 25.0% Statewide total Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2075 Population Forecast for Counties That Make Up Present Day Tulsa and OKC MSAs 109,751 Canadian 44,406 Cleveland 71,916 Grady 24,929 Lincoln 173,122 Logan 934,215 McClain 144,991 Oklahoma 1,503,330 Total OKC MSA 27.0% Creek Okmulgee Osage Pawnee Rogers Tulsa Wagoner Total Tulsa MSA Percentage of Statewide total Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce 115,541 255,755 52,431 34,273 41,848 34,506 718,633 1,252,987 33.4% 232,316 521,368 82,549 55,400 69,711 61,698 1,042,525 2,065,568 37.2% 3 | P a g e There are 25 counties in Oklahoma forecast to experience population decline over the next 65 years. Many of these counties, mostly in western Oklahoma, experienced their peak population levels in 1910, shortly after Oklahoma achieved statehood. While these counties are expected to continue to experience population declines, the rate of decline is expected to slow over the coming decades. Counties forecast to experience population decline between 2010 and 2075 Alfalfa Beaver Blaine Choctaw Cimarron Cotton Craig Dewey Ellis Grant Greer Harmon Harper Hughes Jackson Jefferson Kay Kiowa Major Nowata Roger Mills Seminole Tillman Washita Woods Oklahoma’s population is also expected to live longer on average. An increasingly larger percentage of the state’s population will gradually be made up by older population groups. In 2010, 13.5% of the state’s population was aged 65 or older By 2075, 19.8% of the state’s population will be aged 65 or older Statewide population projections by age group 2010 2075 Population As % Projected Population As % Age 00 to 04 264,126 7.0% 347,853 6.3% Age 05 to 09 259,336 6.9% 349,177 6.3% Age 10 to 14 253,664 6.8% 350,455 6.3% Age 15 to 19 264,484 7.1% 350,949 6.3% Age 20 to 24 269,242 7.2% 350,816 6.3% Age 25 to 29 265,737 7.1% 350,657 6.3% Age 30 to 34 241,018 6.4% 350,293 6.3% Age 35 to 39 232,742 6.2% 349,324 6.3% Age 40 to 44 228,195 6.1% 347,057 6.2% Age 45 to 49 261,242 7.0% 342,806 6.2% Age 50 to 54 264,369 7.0% 335,832 6.0% Age 55 to 59 235,969 6.3% 325,586 5.9% Age 60 to 64 204,513 5.5% 310,576 5.6% Age 65 to 69 159,392 4.2% 289,062 5.2% Age 70 to 74 121,075 3.2% 258,716 4.7% Age 75 to 79 95,051 2.5% 217,121 3.9% Age 80 to 84 69,284 1.8% 166,952 3.0% Age 85+ 61,912 1.7% 166,777 3.0% Total Population 3,751,351 100.0% 5,560,007 100.0% 4 | P a g e Methodology General discussion of projection formulas State level projections used in this report start with population counts revealed under the 2010 Decennial Census and follow generally accepted forecasting routines developed by the US Census Bureau. For simplicity, the basic demographic formulas used in this report are as follows: Population in the current year + Births in the current year ‐ Deaths in the current year + Net migration Equals Population projection for the next year Population projection for the next year + estimated births in the current year, based on fertility rates and # of women of child bearing age ‐ Deaths in the current year + Net migration Equals Population projection for the following year What population groups are included in projections All population figures cited in this report, whether historic counts or forward looking projections, include the following: All civilian residents living within the state Members of the US Armed Forces stationed within Oklahoma All persons incarcerated in the state of Oklahoma, including out of state prisoners held at private prisons located within the state 5 | P a g e Projection of births and fertility rates This report uses statewide total fertility rates from Table S1301 of the US Census Bureau’s 2006‐2010 American Community Survey. Based on survey responses gathered over 5 years, Table S1301 reports the rate of births per 1,000 women by three age categories. Table S1301 indicates Oklahoma’s rate of women with births in the past 12 months (an annual time frame) were: Among women aged 15‐19 there were 37 births per 1,000 women Among women aged 20‐34 there were 113 births per 1,000 women Among women aged 35‐49, there were 15 births per 1,000 women A summary of Table S1301 is included in Appendix 1. While birth rates have been generally declining across the United States and in Oklahoma for some time, that rate of decline has also been slowing in recent years. Further, the state’s growing Hispanic population typically has a higher birth rate than the rate shown for the population in total. This report does not project populations by race or ethnicity, but it is assumed that the state’s Hispanic population will continue to grow. As the percentage of Hispanics in Oklahoma increases, it is also assumed that the rate of decline in the state’s overall birth rate will slow or possibly reverse. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the longer term direction for birth rates in Oklahoma, the population projections in this report assume that the overall birth rate will remain constant over the longer term. Projection of deaths United States survival rates by single age and gender for 2007 were obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr59/nvsr59_09.pdf and are included in Appendix 2. National survival rates were used to calculate Oklahoma life expectancy for each age group over the next 65 years. Those survival rates are not likely to remain static with improvements in health care technology and Oklahoma embarking on efforts like smoking reduction programs and diabetes awareness efforts to change the state’s overall health characteristics. However, the rapid onset of other health concerns, like the national epidemic of obesity, could also adversely impact the state’s longer term life expectancy figures. Because of the difficulty in forecasting future changes in life expectancy, Oklahoma’s age specific survival rates are assumed to remain constant for the purposes of the populations projections contained within this report. 6 | P a g e Projection of net migration As difficult as the previous variables are to project, migration is likely even more difficult to gauge. As the state’s previous population projections report stated following the release of the 2000 Census results, “The only consistency in Oklahoma’s recent migration history has been its unpredictability.” How volatile is this component of population growth? Between 1970 and 1983, Oklahoma’s overall population growth rate grew at a heated pace, reaching peak annual growth of 3.6% in 1982. Some less populated counties in eastern Oklahoma, driven in part by new oil discoveries and well construction, experienced double digit annual percentage growth. Then by 1987 the state’s annual population growth rate dropped to ‐1.3% and some of those same double digit growth counties were showing nearly double digit declines. Appendix 3 shows more detailed information about the history of Oklahoma’s components of population change, including net migration figures. Between 1960 and 2011, Oklahoma’s population gain due to net migration averaged slightly over 10,000 people annually, with swings ranging from a gain of 80,500 in 1982 to a decline of 61,000 in 1987. Ignoring the volatility found in the 1970s and 1980s, and limiting net migration to the 1990s and 2000s, Oklahoma’s average annual net migration gain was just under 15,000. For this analysis, the state’s annual population growth figure has been assumed to run at a consistent rate of adding 15,000 people annually. County population projections County population projections were obtained using a more generalized process than the statewide approach already outlined above. Linear regression trendline formulas, based on population patterns from 1960 to 2011, were deemed sufficient to develop county population projections for 64 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties. For the remaining 13 counties, straight linear regression formulas yielded unrealistic population levels and another option needed to be used. Linear models were judged to be insufficient for Alfalfa, Cimarron, Dewey, Ellis, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Kiowa, Roger Mills, Tillman, Washita and Woods counties. For these counties, a curved, or power, trendline was judged to be a better fit. Statistically, trendline formulas have a measure of ‘fit’ known as the r‐squared value. The closer the r‐ squared value is to a value of one, the better the formula matches up with actual population figures. Going one step further, the higher the r‐squared value, the better the assumed predictability of future values. This report includes both the trendline formula used for each county’s population, plus the associated r‐squared value as a measure of how well the formula fits the historic population levels and how well the formula might predict future populations, all other things being held constant. 7 | P a g e Matching up the two methodologies Statewide estimates have been developed using two different methods, each arriving at a similar conclusion before balancing. With each method acting as a comparative “check” against the other, it is believed these estimates are as accurate as possible, excluding any unforeseen changes in economic or political condition. When the Census Bureau develops annual population estimates based on birth, death and migration data, they encounter situations where the sum of the parts doesn’t exactly equal the expected whole. To resolve the issue, they use a balancing figure that effectively serves as a “margin of error” within their birth, death and migration figures. This report used a similar approach to unify the results of the statewide methodology with the county level methodology. Summing county level population projections yielded a population total that was comfortably close to the state level population projections, but there was a small degree of difference that necessitated a slight population adjustment at the statewide level. Over the course of the 65 years between 2010 and 2075, the required adjustment averaged 0.2% of each year’s total population. This was deemed an acceptable range of variation and was added into the statewide population total for balancing purposes 8 | P a g e Oklahoma Statewide Oklahoma: Statewide Population 2012 to 2075 Forecast Based on Sum of Individual County Forecasts 6,000,000 5,560,007 5,000,000 3,751,351 3,450,654 3,145,585 3,025,290 2,559,229 2,328,284 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,396,040 2,336,434 2,233,351 2,028,283 2,000,000 1,657,155 1,000,000 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 Oklahoma Annual Estimates 1960‐2011 (Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division) Oklahoma Forecast 2012‐2075 (Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce) Oklahoma Decennial Census 1910‐2010 (Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census) Oklahoma’s statewide population projection was built using the sum of population projections for all 77 counties. Annual growth rates are forecast to average 0.73%. This is similar to the state’s average annual growth rate of 0.80% over the last three decades, and equivalent to the US Census Bureau’s forecast for the national growth rate through 2050. The following pages contain tables showing Oklahoma’s statewide Decennial Census populations going back to statehood; annual population estimates going back to 1960; population projections from 2012 to 2075; and population projections by 5 year age group through 2075 for males, females and the total population. Decennial Census population counts Statewide 1,657,155 1910 1960 2,028,283 1920 1970 2,396,040 1930 1980 2,336,434 1940 1990 2,233,351 1950 2000 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2,328,284 2,559,229 3,025,290 3,145,585 3,450,654 2010 3,751,351 9 | P a g e Annual population estimates Statewide 1960 2,328,284 1973 2,694,000 1986 1961 2,380,000 1974 2,732,000 1987 1962 2,427,000 1975 2,772,000 1988 1963 2,439,000 1976 2,823,000 1989 1964 2,446,000 1977 2,866,000 1990 1965 2,440,000 1978 2,913,000 1991 1966 2,454,000 1979 2,970,000 1992 1967 2,489,000 1980 3,025,290 1993 1968 2,503,000 1981 3,096,159 1994 1969 2,535,000 1982 3,206,129 1995 1970 2,559,229 1983 3,290,404 1996 1971 2,618,000 1984 3,285,535 1997 1972 2,657,000 1985 3,271,333 1998 Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division 3,252,735 3,210,124 3,167,064 3,150,304 3,145,585 3,175,440 3,220,517 3,252,285 3,280,940 3,308,208 3,340,129 3,372,917 3,405,194 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3,437,147 3,450,654 3,464,729 3,484,754 3,498,687 3,514,449 3,532,769 3,574,334 3,612,186 3,644,025 3,687,050 3,751,351 3,791,508 Population projections Statewide 3,802,027 4,246,796 2012 2028 3,829,773 4,274,646 2013 2029 3,857,527 4,302,501 2014 2030 3,885,288 4,330,362 2015 2031 3,913,057 4,358,227 2016 2032 3,940,833 4,386,098 2017 2033 3,968,616 4,413,973 2018 2034 3,996,406 4,441,853 2019 2035 4,024,202 4,469,737 2020 2036 4,052,005 4,497,626 2021 2037 4,079,814 4,525,519 2022 2038 4,107,630 4,553,417 2023 2039 4,135,452 4,581,319 2024 2040 4,163,279 4,609,225 2025 2041 4,191,113 4,637,135 2026 2042 4,218,952 4,665,050 2027 2043 Source: Oklahoma Department of Commerce 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 4,692,968 4,720,889 4,748,815 4,776,744 4,804,677 4,832,614 4,860,554 4,888,497 4,916,443 4,944,393 4,972,346 5,000,303 5,028,262 5,056,224 5,084,190 5,112,158 2060 2061 2062 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070 2071 2072 2073 2074 2075 5,140,129 5,168,103 5,196,079 5,224,059 5,252,041 5,280,026 5,308,013 5,336,003 5,363,995 5,391,990 5,419,987 5,447,986 5,475,988 5,503,992 5,531,999 5,560,007 10 | P a g e Geography Total Estimate Oklahoma Adair Alfalfa Atoka Beaver Beckham Blaine Bryan Caddo Canadian Carter Cherokee Choctaw Cimarron Cleveland Coal Comanche Cotton Craig Creek Custer Delaware Dewey Ellis Garfield Garvin Grady Grant Greer Harmon Harper Haskell Hughes Jackson Jefferson Johnston 129,023 855 109 382 195 727 427 1,578 1,056 3,883 1,646 2,165 507 43 9,661 154 4,264 140 453 2,364 1,049 1,356 124 123 2,089 864 1,852 153 126 79 120 380 442 699 219 416 Women 15 to 19 years Women with births in the past 12 months Number Rate per 1,000 women Margin of Estimate Margin of Estimate Margin of Error Error Error 962 4,826 478 37 4 59 28 19 33 23 18 ‐ 109 ‐ 221 76 30 43 79 106 41 15 18 77 88 105 15 23 21 32 106 ‐ 109 ‐ 62 108 16 22 10 14 142 29 29 27 28 133 105 71 27 18 133 140 89 85 55 190 55 46 25 22 55 28 26 55 50 31 8 13 186 283 214 150 89 16 9 45 8 9 52 63 75 200 95 47 22 25 17 17 121 106 95 14 29 31 58 60 50 45 21 19 105 7 10 7 9 62 15 18 11 13 22 4 5 32 40 24 ‐ 109 ‐ 199 169 77 59 37 29 73 22 24 25 29 87 132 79 71 43 23 ‐ 109 ‐ 164 60 ‐ 109 ‐ 195 30 ‐ 109 ‐ 286 67 32 34 267 266 28 10 13 26 34 56 37 33 84 75 100 87 91 124 131 25 12 14 55 60 73 24 28 58 69 170 | P a g e Kay Kingfisher Kiowa Latimer Le Flore Lincoln Logan Love McClain McCurtain McIntosh Major Marshall Mayes Murray Muskogee Noble Nowata Okfuskee Oklahoma Okmulgee Osage Ottawa Pawnee Payne Pittsburg Pontotoc Pottawatomie Pushmataha Roger Mills Rogers Seminole Sequoyah Stephens Texas Tillman Tulsa Wagoner Washington Washita Woods Woodward 1,697 548 382 589 1,771 1,336 1,407 338 998 1,060 711 197 530 1,544 381 2,306 393 260 330 23,382 1,180 1,644 1,297 531 4,032 1,436 1,444 2,547 392 81 3,153 910 1,469 1,415 706 308 20,307 2,389 1,630 376 378 538 55 46 100 133 63 81 112 85 76 72 144 33 102 64 97 162 78 82 85 3 97 89 38 55 198 74 121 121 45 22 99 75 82 112 62 76 59 103 79 33 133 112 68 11 26 18 37 19 72 ‐ ‐ 38 13 5 21 62 18 250 ‐ 12 9 1,029 85 26 63 21 49 51 54 136 26 4 60 24 21 86 23 11 811 90 80 15 15 ‐ 51 15 22 22 28 18 53 109 109 33 16 7 24 49 32 175 109 15 11 191 66 26 43 21 56 36 43 77 24 6 46 30 23 63 29 11 168 69 76 14 23 109 40 20 68 31 21 14 51 ‐ ‐ 36 18 25 40 40 47 108 ‐ 46 27 44 72 16 49 40 12 36 37 53 66 49 19 26 14 61 33 36 40 38 49 40 40 ‐ 30 28 62 35 16 14 38 78 27 31 23 35 46 32 85 75 68 60 34 8 54 16 34 40 14 25 31 30 62 70 15 32 16 43 41 36 8 28 46 36 67 50 171 | P a g e Geography Oklahoma Adair Alfalfa Atoka Beaver Beckham Blaine Bryan Caddo Canadian Carter Cherokee Choctaw Cimarron Cleveland Coal Comanche Cotton Craig Creek Custer Delaware Dewey Ellis Garfield Garvin Grady Grant Greer Harmon Harper Haskell Hughes Jackson Jefferson Johnston Kay Kingfisher Women 20 to 34 years Total Women with births in the past 12 months Number Rate per 1,000 women Estimate Margin of Estimate Margin of Estimate Margin of Error Error Error 368,582 852 41,696 1,338 113 4 2,030 80 402 111 198 53 330 23 60 25 182 79 1,084 84 118 69 109 63 372 37 41 20 110 56 1,879 120 371 131 197 71 695 91 187 66 269 96 4,175 96 382 138 91 33 2,265 81 397 87 175 38 10,609 96 1,482 297 140 28 4,240 155 506 157 119 36 4,826 141 520 151 108 32 1,231 67 175 68 142 55 161 46 18 21 112 130 30,888 200 2,951 354 96 11 456 36 59 39 129 82 13,283 118 1,897 276 143 21 514 43 111 62 216 116 1,133 61 90 62 79 54 5,712 85 749 168 131 29 3,430 137 494 151 144 45 2,963 59 216 97 73 33 359 31 31 24 86 67 257 25 39 19 152 72 5,538 154 681 203 123 36 2,394 96 200 82 84 34 4,583 135 618 184 135 41 330 25 29 23 88 69 450 73 24 23 53 51 221 50 63 32 285 157 271 52 47 35 173 126 1,019 54 84 43 82 42 947 60 158 64 167 66 2,767 61 263 84 95 30 479 32 98 38 205 81 955 219 73 71 76 86 3,874 50 590 119 152 31 1,242 95 166 83 134 65 172 | P a g e Kiowa Latimer Le Flore Lincoln Logan Love McClain McCurtain McIntosh Major Marshall Mayes Murray Muskogee Noble Nowata Okfuskee Oklahoma Okmulgee Osage Ottawa Pawnee Payne Pittsburg Pontotoc Pottawatomie Pushmataha Roger Mills Rogers Seminole Sequoyah Stephens Texas Tillman Tulsa Wagoner Washington Washita Woods Woodward 692 750 4,287 2,532 3,797 764 2,808 3,060 1,384 513 1,124 3,387 1,074 6,901 980 856 923 80,175 3,613 3,408 2,691 1,249 11,754 3,547 3,954 6,958 829 239 7,193 2,185 3,497 3,740 2,037 546 62,813 6,312 4,289 988 827 1,944 62 115 79 65 115 56 132 84 109 36 122 28 100 173 78 66 68 94 127 152 27 54 209 116 89 105 18 18 118 75 95 129 47 92 47 121 115 39 72 131 43 74 643 229 542 85 404 420 135 74 152 486 87 690 103 202 88 9,391 408 427 356 204 862 549 410 507 63 42 694 303 382 334 220 111 6,143 717 394 117 49 166 31 51 129 72 186 58 122 132 86 40 87 152 61 170 64 98 50 713 138 106 77 92 219 130 122 126 35 24 163 101 108 129 90 68 483 188 126 46 40 93 62 99 150 90 143 111 144 137 98 144 135 143 81 100 105 236 95 117 113 125 132 163 73 155 104 73 76 176 96 139 109 89 108 203 98 114 92 118 59 85 45 62 30 28 48 77 45 43 60 75 78 45 56 25 65 113 52 9 38 32 29 74 19 36 32 18 42 101 23 45 31 35 44 113 8 29 30 47 49 48 173 | P a g e Geography Oklahoma Adair Alfalfa Atoka Beaver Beckham Blaine Bryan Caddo Canadian Carter Cherokee Choctaw Cimarron Cleveland Coal Comanche Cotton Craig Creek Custer Delaware Dewey Ellis Garfield Garvin Grady Grant Greer Harmon Harper Haskell Hughes Jackson Jefferson Johnston Kay Kingfisher Women 35 to 50 years Total Women with births in the past 12 months Number Rate per 1,000 women Estimate Margin of Estimate Margin of Estimate Margin of Error Error Error 395,075 986 6,097 501 15 1 2,409 81 4 6 2 2 438 28 ‐ 109 ‐ 61 1,466 79 17 17 12 11 646 34 10 15 15 23 2,067 132 7 13 3 6 1,108 142 7 7 6 7 4,120 108 24 27 6 7 3,063 88 21 20 7 7 13,099 189 309 111 24 8 4,916 191 32 32 7 6 4,718 151 16 14 3 3 1,514 63 ‐ 109 ‐ 18 229 40 7 10 31 43 26,451 229 564 175 21 7 578 40 7 11 12 19 12,489 174 112 69 9 6 717 55 21 22 29 31 1,637 61 3 6 2 4 7,659 128 34 33 4 4 2,450 132 90 68 37 28 4,331 162 24 31 6 7 459 25 6 9 13 20 389 23 ‐ 109 ‐ 68 6,193 197 63 43 10 7 2,873 103 66 44 23 15 5,857 140 126 90 22 15 468 27 ‐ 109 ‐ 57 475 77 ‐ 109 ‐ 56 283 34 4 7 14 24 344 45 ‐ 109 ‐ 77 1,314 51 35 42 27 32 1,228 49 13 19 11 16 2,780 105 47 41 17 15 710 44 ‐ 109 ‐ 38 1,064 263 9 13 8 12 4,626 127 62 39 13 8 1,695 107 3 6 2 3 174 | P a g e Kiowa Latimer Le Flore Lincoln Logan Love McClain McCurtain McIntosh Major Marshall Mayes Murray Muskogee Noble Nowata Okfuskee Oklahoma Okmulgee Osage Ottawa Pawnee Payne Pittsburg Pontotoc Pottawatomie Pushmataha Roger Mills Rogers Seminole Sequoyah Stephens Texas Tillman Tulsa Wagoner Washington Washita Woods Woodward 1,011 1,187 5,273 3,926 4,579 1,012 3,898 3,440 1,939 773 1,465 4,275 1,435 7,637 1,278 1,102 1,141 75,976 4,054 5,326 3,294 1,842 6,187 4,579 3,824 7,612 1,235 373 10,240 2,684 4,778 4,808 1,906 909 65,791 8,150 5,412 1,191 722 1,948 82 70 126 125 116 60 145 96 93 41 128 101 95 174 109 55 62 448 113 158 66 70 149 138 138 115 50 22 174 91 143 163 62 79 377 153 140 51 60 99 ‐ 21 76 66 58 38 61 6 19 26 40 46 12 115 7 ‐ 13 1,396 13 125 4 34 147 63 82 138 26 ‐ 48 9 93 79 24 6 1,219 152 8 8 8 68 109 22 53 50 42 38 74 9 19 26 46 40 14 73 13 109 19 248 17 89 6 29 81 46 53 66 28 109 31 13 54 60 29 9 236 69 14 12 12 43 ‐ 18 14 17 13 38 16 2 10 34 27 11 8 15 5 ‐ 11 18 3 23 1 18 24 14 21 18 21 ‐ 5 3 19 16 13 7 19 19 1 7 11 35 27 18 10 13 9 37 19 3 10 34 30 9 10 10 10 25 17 3 4 17 2 16 13 10 14 9 22 71 3 5 11 13 15 10 4 9 3 10 17 22 175 | P a g e Appendix 2 – US Mortality Rates 2007 Source: US Center for Disease Controll, as accessed at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr59/nvsr59_09.pdf Table Life table for males: United States, 2007 Age Probablity of dying between ages x to x+1 Number surviving to age x Number dying between ages x to x+1 Personyears lived between ages x to x+1 Total number of personyears lived above age x Expectation of life at age x 0-1 0.007390 100,000 739 99,352 7,537,883 75.4 1-2 0.000490 99,261 49 99,237 7,438,531 74.9 2-3 0.000316 99,212 31 99,197 7,339,295 74.0 3-4 0.000242 99,181 24 99,169 7,240,098 73.0 4-5 0.000201 99,157 20 99,147 7,140,929 72.0 5-6 0.000182 99,137 18 99,128 7,041,782 71.0 6-7 0.000170 99,119 17 99,111 6,942,654 70.0 7-8 0.000156 99,102 15 99,095 6,843,543 69.1 8-9 0.000134 99,087 13 99,080 6,744,448 68.1 9-10 0.000107 99,074 11 99,068 6,645,368 67.1 10-11 0.000085 99,063 99,059 6,546,300 66.1 11-12 0.000089 99,055 99,050 6,447,241 65.1 12-13 0.000143 99,046 14 99,039 6,348,191 64.1 13-14 0.000256 99,032 25 99,019 6,249,153 63.1 14-15 0.000411 99,006 41 98,986 6,150,134 62.1 15-16 0.000573 98,966 57 98,937 6,051,148 61.1 16-17 0.000725 98,909 72 98,873 5,952,211 60.2 17-18 0.000873 98,837 86 98,794 5,853,338 59.2 18-19 0.001014 98,751 100 98,701 5,754,544 58.3 19-20 0.001149 98,651 113 98,594 5,655,843 57.3 20-21 0.001292 98,537 127 98,474 5,557,249 56.4 21-22 0.001427 98,410 140 98,340 5,458,775 55.5 22-23 0.001512 98,270 149 98,195 5,360,435 54.5 23-24 0.001529 98,121 150 98,046 5,262,240 53.6 24-25 0.001497 97,971 147 97,898 5,164,194 52.7 25-26 0.001448 97,824 142 97,754 5,066,296 51.8 26-27 0.001409 97,683 138 97,614 4,968,543 50.9 176 | P a g e 27-28 0.001382 97,545 135 97,478 4,870,929 49.9 28-29 0.001376 97,410 134 97,343 4,773,451 49.0 29-30 0.001390 97,276 135 97,209 4,676,108 48.1 30-31 0.001412 97,141 137 97,072 4,578,899 47.1 31-32 0.001437 97,004 139 96,934 4,481,827 46.2 32-33 0.001474 96,864 143 96,793 4,384,893 45.3 33-34 0.001516 96,722 147 96,648 4,288,100 44.3 34-35 0.001570 96,575 152 96,499 4,191,451 43.4 35-36 0.001634 96,423 158 96,345 4,094,952 42.5 36-37 0.001716 96,266 165 96,183 3,998,607 41.5 37-38 0.001821 96,101 175 96,013 3,902,424 40.6 38-39 0.001956 95,926 188 95,832 3,806,411 39.7 39-40 0.002120 95,738 203 95,636 3,710,579 38.8 40-41 0.002303 95,535 220 95,425 3,614,943 37.8 41-42 0.002505 95,315 239 95,196 3,519,518 36.9 42-43 0.002735 95,076 260 94,946 3,424,322 36.0 43-44 0.002992 94,816 284 94,674 3,329,376 35.1 44-45 0.003270 94,533 309 94,378 3,234,702 34.2 45-46 0.003556 94,223 335 94,056 3,140,324 33.3 46-47 0.003855 93,888 362 93,707 3,046,268 32.4 47-48 0.004187 93,526 392 93,331 2,952,560 31.6 48-49 0.004570 93,135 426 92,922 2,859,230 30.7 49-50 0.005001 92,709 464 92,477 2,766,308 29.8 50-51 0.005474 92,246 505 91,993 2,673,831 29.0 51-52 0.005969 91,741 548 91,467 2,581,838 28.1 52-53 0.006473 91,193 590 90,898 2,490,371 27.3 53-54 0.006971 90,603 632 90,287 2,399,473 26.5 54-55 0.007469 89,971 672 89,635 2,309,186 25.7 55-56 0.007995 89,299 714 88,942 2,219,551 24.9 56-57 0.008567 88,585 759 88,206 2,130,609 24.1 57-58 0.009179 87,826 806 87,423 2,042,403 23.3 58-59 0.009843 87,020 857 86,592 1,954,980 22.5 59-60 0.010571 86,164 911 85,708 1,868,389 21.7 60-61 0.011378 85,253 970 84,768 1,782,680 20.9 61-62 0.012264 84,283 1,034 83,766 1,697,913 20.1 62-63 0.013227 83,249 1,101 82,699 1,614,147 19.4 63-64 0.014275 82,148 1,173 81,562 1,531,448 18.6 64-65 0.015434 80,975 1,250 80,350 1,449,887 17.9 65-66 0.016771 79,726 1,337 79,057 1,369,536 17.2 177 | P a g e 66-67 0.018156 78,388 1,423 77,677 1,290,479 16.5 67-68 0.019682 76,965 1,515 76,208 1,212,802 15.8 68-69 0.021327 75,450 1,609 74,646 1,136,594 15.1 69-70 0.023144 73,841 1,709 72,987 1,061,948 14.4 70-71 0.025204 72,132 1,818 71,223 988,962 13.7 71-72 0.027616 70,314 1,942 69,343 917,738 13.1 72-73 0.030417 68,373 2,080 67,333 848,395 12.4 73-74 0.033598 66,293 2,227 65,179 781,062 11.8 74-75 0.037153 64,066 2,380 62,875 715,883 11.2 75-76 0.041097 61,685 2,535 60,418 653,008 10.6 76-77 0.045315 59,150 2,680 57,810 592,590 10.0 77-78 0.049944 56,470 2,820 55,060 534,780 9.5 78-79 0.055019 53,649 2,952 52,174 479,720 8.9 79-80 0.060576 50,698 3,071 49,162 427,547 8.4 80-81 0.066655 47,627 3,175 46,039 378,384 7.9 81-82 0.073296 44,452 3,258 42,823 332,345 7.5 82-83 0.080542 41,194 3,318 39,535 289,522 7.0 83-84 0.088435 37,876 3,350 36,201 249,987 6.6 84-85 0.097021 34,527 3,350 32,852 213,785 6.2 85-86 0.106343 31,177 3,315 29,519 180,934 5.8 86-87 0.116446 27,861 3,244 26,239 151,415 5.4 87-88 0.127371 24,617 3,135 23,049 125,175 5.1 88-89 0.139160 21,482 2,989 19,987 102,126 4.8 89-90 0.151850 18,492 2,808 17,088 82,139 4.4 90-91 0.165475 15,684 2,595 14,386 65,051 4.1 91-92 0.180063 13,089 2,357 11,910 50,665 3.9 92-93 0.195635 10,732 2,100 9,682 38,754 3.6 93-94 0.212205 8,632 1,832 7,717 29,072 3.4 94-95 0.229779 6,801 1,563 6,019 21,355 3.1 95-96 0.248348 5,238 1,301 4,588 15,336 2.9 96-97 0.267897 3,937 1,055 3,410 10,749 2.7 97-98 0.288394 2,882 831 2,467 7,339 2.5 98-99 0.309795 2,051 635 1,733 4,872 2.4 99-100 0.332043 1,416 470 1,181 3,139 2.2 100 and over 1.000000 946 946 1,958 1,958 2.1 178 | P a g e Table Life table for females: United States, 2007 Age Probablity of dying between ages x to x+1 Number surviving to age x Number dying between ages x to x+1 Personyears lived between ages x to x+1 Total number of personyears lived above age x Expectation of life at age x 0-1 0.006103 100,000 610 99,464 8,040,632 80.4 1-2 0.000430 99,390 43 99,368 7,941,168 79.9 2-3 0.000255 99,347 25 99,334 7,841,800 78.9 3-4 0.000193 99,322 19 99,312 7,742,465 78.0 4-5 0.000149 99,303 15 99,295 7,643,153 77.0 5-6 0.000145 99,288 14 99,281 7,543,858 76.0 6-7 0.000132 99,273 13 99,267 7,444,577 75.0 7-8 0.000122 99,260 12 99,254 7,345,311 74.0 8-9 0.000112 99,248 11 99,243 7,246,057 73.0 9-10 0.000103 99,237 10 99,232 7,146,814 72.0 10-11 0.000096 99,227 10 99,222 7,047,582 71.0 11-12 0.000100 99,217 10 99,212 6,948,360 70.0 12-13 0.000120 99,207 12 99,201 6,849,148 69.0 13-14 0.000160 99,195 16 99,188 6,749,947 68.0 14-15 0.000212 99,180 21 99,169 6,650,759 67.1 15-16 0.000271 99,159 27 99,145 6,551,590 66.1 16-17 0.000325 99,132 32 99,116 6,452,445 65.1 17-18 0.000369 99,100 37 99,081 6,353,329 64.1 18-19 0.000400 99,063 40 99,043 6,254,248 63.1 19-20 0.000422 99,023 42 99,003 6,155,205 62.2 20-21 0.000443 98,982 44 98,960 6,056,202 61.2 21-22 0.000467 98,938 46 98,915 5,957,243 60.2 22-23 0.000488 98,892 48 98,868 5,858,328 59.2 23-24 0.000504 98,843 50 98,818 5,759,460 58.3 24-25 0.000518 98,794 51 98,768 5,660,642 57.3 25-26 0.000532 98,742 53 98,716 5,561,874 56.3 26-27 0.000548 98,690 54 98,663 5,463,158 55.4 27-28 0.000565 98,636 56 98,608 5,364,495 54.4 28-29 0.000583 98,580 57 98,551 5,265,887 53.4 29-30 0.000605 98,523 60 98,493 5,167,336 52.4 30-31 0.000634 98,463 62 98,432 5,068,843 51.5 31-32 0.000670 98,401 66 98,368 4,970,411 50.5 179 | P a g e 32-33 0.000714 98,335 70 98,300 4,872,043 49.5 33-34 0.000767 98,264 75 98,227 4,773,744 48.6 34-35 0.000824 98,189 81 98,149 4,675,517 47.6 35-36 0.000887 98,108 87 98,065 4,577,369 46.7 36-37 0.000959 98,021 94 97,974 4,479,304 45.7 37-38 0.001040 97,927 102 97,876 4,381,330 44.7 38-39 0.001137 97,825 111 97,770 4,283,454 43.8 39-40 0.001248 97,714 122 97,653 4,185,684 42.8 40-41 0.001367 97,592 133 97,525 4,088,031 41.9 41-42 0.001495 97,459 146 97,386 3,990,505 40.9 42-43 0.001644 97,313 160 97,233 3,893,120 40.0 43-44 0.001812 97,153 176 97,065 3,795,887 39.1 44-45 0.001994 96,977 193 96,880 3,698,822 38.1 45-46 0.002182 96,784 211 96,678 3,601,941 37.2 46-47 0.002373 96,572 229 96,458 3,505,263 36.3 47-48 0.002569 96,343 247 96,220 3,408,805 35.4 48-49 0.002775 96,096 267 95,962 3,312,586 34.5 49-50 0.002995 95,829 287 95,686 3,216,623 33.6 50-51 0.003236 95,542 309 95,388 3,120,938 32.7 51-52 0.003494 95,233 333 95,067 3,025,550 31.8 52-53 0.003763 94,900 357 94,722 2,930,484 30.9 53-54 0.004041 94,543 382 94,352 2,835,762 30.0 54-55 0.004330 94,161 408 93,957 2,741,410 29.1 55-56 0.004639 93,753 435 93,536 2,647,452 28.2 56-57 0.004981 93,319 465 93,086 2,553,916 27.4 57-58 0.005372 92,854 499 92,604 2,460,830 26.5 58-59 0.005826 92,355 538 92,086 2,368,226 25.6 59-60 0.006347 91,817 583 91,525 2,276,140 24.8 60-61 0.006942 91,234 633 90,917 2,184,615 23.9 61-62 0.007595 90,601 688 90,257 2,093,697 23.1 62-63 0.008293 89,913 746 89,540 2,003,441 22.3 63-64 0.009029 89,167 805 88,764 1,913,901 21.5 64-65 0.009826 88,362 868 87,928 1,825,136 20.7 65-66 0.010753 87,494 941 87,023 1,737,208 19.9 66-67 0.011692 86,553 1,012 86,047 1,650,185 19.1 67-68 0.012722 85,541 1,088 84,997 1,564,138 18.3 68-69 0.013830 84,453 1,168 83,869 1,479,141 17.5 69-70 0.015062 83,285 1,254 82,657 1,395,273 16.8 70-71 0.016484 82,030 1,352 81,354 1,312,615 16.0 180 | P a g e 71-72 0.018170 80,678 1,466 79,945 1,231,261 15.3 72-73 0.020151 79,212 1,596 78,414 1,151,316 14.5 73-74 0.022445 77,616 1,742 76,745 1,072,902 13.8 74-75 0.025056 75,874 1,901 74,923 996,157 13.1 75-76 0.028016 73,973 2,072 72,937 921,234 12.5 76-77 0.031215 71,900 2,244 70,778 848,297 11.8 77-78 0.034767 69,656 2,422 68,445 777,519 11.2 78-79 0.038707 67,234 2,602 65,933 709,074 10.5 79-80 0.043073 64,632 2,784 63,240 643,141 10.0 80-81 0.047907 61,848 2,963 60,366 579,901 9.4 81-82 0.053254 58,885 3,136 57,317 519,534 8.8 82-83 0.059160 55,749 3,298 54,100 462,217 8.3 83-84 0.065676 52,451 3,445 50,729 408,117 7.8 84-85 0.072854 49,006 3,570 47,221 357,389 7.3 85-86 0.080749 45,436 3,669 43,601 310,168 6.8 86-87 0.089416 41,767 3,735 39,900 266,566 6.4 87-88 0.098914 38,032 3,762 36,151 226,666 6.0 88-89 0.109300 34,270 3,746 32,398 190,515 5.6 89-90 0.120630 30,525 3,682 28,684 158,117 5.2 90-91 0.132959 26,842 3,569 25,058 129,434 4.8 91-92 0.146339 23,274 3,406 21,571 104,376 4.5 92-93 0.160816 19,868 3,195 18,270 82,805 4.2 93-94 0.176428 16,673 2,942 15,202 64,535 3.9 94-95 0.193208 13,731 2,653 12,405 49,333 3.6 95-96 0.211174 11,078 2,339 9,908 36,928 3.3 96-97 0.230333 8,739 2,013 7,732 27,020 3.1 97-98 0.250679 6,726 1,686 5,883 19,288 2.9 98-99 0.272186 5,040 1,372 4,354 13,405 2.7 99-100 0.294812 3,668 1,081 3,127 9,051 2.5 100 and over 1.000000 2,587 2,587 5,923 5,923 2.3 181 | P a g e Appendix 3 – Historic Components of Change for Oklahoma’s Population Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Division STATE OF OKLAHOMA Table A-3 Historical Population, Births, Deaths, and Migration: 1920 - 2001 Natural Population Percent Year Population Births Deaths Natural Increase Migration Population Change Percent Change 1920 2,028,283 40,636 16,054 24,582 700 25,300 1.26 1921 2,108,000 47,068 16,340 30,728 49,000 79,700 3.93 1922 2,140,000 50,944 16,378 34,566 (2,600) 32,000 1.52 1923 2,159,000 47,452 17,273 30,179 (11,200) 19,000 0.89 1924 2,179,000 50,453 17,103 33,350 (13,400) 20,000 0.93 1925 2,216,000 54,915 20,026 34,889 2,100 37,000 1.7 1926 2,256,000 55,770 20,507 35,263 4,700 40,000 1.81 1927 2,306,000 51,856 21,170 30,686 19,300 50,000 2.22 1928 2,344,000 42,986 20,953 22,033 16,000 38,000 1.65 1929 2,372,000 39,738 21,398 18,340 9,700 28,000 1.19 1930 2,396,040 42,505 19,646 22,859 1,200 24,000 1.01 1931 2,403,000 43,269 18,802 24,467 (17,500) 7,000 0.29 1932 2,394,000 41,039 19,285 21,754 (30,800) (9,000) -0.37 1933 2,392,000 43,697 20,309 23,388 (25,400) (2,000) -0.08 1934 2,391,000 47,302 21,373 25,929 (26,900) (1,000) -0.04 1935 2,386,000 43,691 21,091 22,600 (27,600) (5,000) -0.21 1936 2,365,000 41,815 23,350 18,465 (39,500) (21,000) -0.88 1937 2,334,000 41,223 21,399 19,824 (50,800) (31,000) -1.31 1938 2,324,000 44,190 20,422 23,768 (33,800) (10,000) -0.43 1939 2,333,000 42,760 20,657 22,103 (13,100) 9,000 0.39 1940 2,336,434 44,258 20,618 23,640 (20,200) 3,400 0.15 1941 2,262,000 45,313 20,097 25,216 (99,700) (74,400) -3.19 1942 2,215,000 45,277 18,985 26,292 (73,300) (47,000) -2.08 1943 2,205,000 47,800 19,765 28,035 (38,000) (10,000) -0.45 1944 2,043,000 46,885 18,438 28,447 (190,400) (162,000) -7.35 1945 2,028,000 43,405 18,731 24,674 (39,700) (15,000) -0.73 1946 2,128,000 50,043 18,420 31,623 68,400 100,000 4.93 1947 2,133,000 52,691 19,101 33,590 (28,600) 5,000 0.23 182 | P a g e 1948 2,089,000 50,428 19,074 31,354 (75,400) (44,000) -2.06 1949 2,105,000 49,971 19,346 30,625 (14,600) 16,000 0.77 1950 2,233,351 50,472 19,431 31,041 97,300 128,400 6.1 1951 2,229,000 50,597 20,082 30,515 (34,900) (4,400) -0.19 1952 2,210,000 50,146 19,645 30,501 (49,500) (19,000) -0.85 1953 2,219,000 51,275 19,820 31,455 (22,500) 9,000 0.41 1954 2,182,000 51,457 20,121 31,336 (68,300) (37,000) -1.67 1955 2,250,000 50,636 19,705 30,931 37,100 68,000 3.12 1956 2,273,000 51,894 20,954 30,940 (7,900) 23,000 1.02 1957 2,282,000 51,349 21,568 29,781 (20,800) 9,000 0.4 1958 2,267,000 50,552 21,812 28,740 (43,700) (15,000) -0.66 1959 2,289,000 51,141 21,996 29,145 (7,100) 22,000 0.97 1960 2,328,284 50,900 22,932 27,968 11,300 39,300 1.72 1961 2,380,000 50,859 22,973 27,886 23,800 51,700 2.22 1962 2,427,000 51,351 24,005 27,346 19,700 47,000 1.97 1963 2,439,000 49,955 24,458 25,497 (13,500) 12,000 0.49 1964 2,446,000 47,563 24,194 23,369 (16,400) 7,000 0.29 1965 2,440,000 42,806 24,304 18,502 (24,500) (6,000) -0.25 1966 2,454,000 39,993 24,806 15,187 (1,200) 14,000 0.57 1967 2,489,000 40,102 24,859 15,243 19,800 35,000 1.43 1968 2,503,000 40,973 25,708 15,265 (1,300) 14,000 0.56 1969 2,535,000 42,737 25,972 16,765 15,200 32,000 1.28 1970 2,559,229 44,991 26,750 18,241 6,200 24,500 0.97 1971 2,618,000 45,353 25,682 19,671 39,500 59,100 2.31 1972 2,657,000 42,303 26,935 15,368 24,600 40,000 1.53 1973 2,694,000 40,765 27,357 13,408 23,900 37,300 1.4 1974 2,732,000 42,363 27,228 15,135 23,800 38,900 1.44 1975 2,772,000 43,130 27,165 15,965 23,900 39,900 1.46 1976 2,823,000 43,663 27,103 16,560 35,500 52,100 1.88 1977 2,866,000 45,449 26,766 18,683 24,500 43,200 1.53 1978 2,913,000 45,885 27,892 17,993 29,300 47,300 1.65 1979 2,970,000 49,007 27,756 21,251 36,700 58,000 1.99 1980 3,025,290 52,065 28,227 23,838 26,300 50,200 1.69 1981 3,096,159 53,620 28,568 25,052 45,700 70,700 2.34 1982 3,206,129 58,748 29,305 29,443 80,500 109,900 3.55 1983 3,290,404 56,859 29,426 27,433 56,900 84,300 2.63 1984 3,285,535 54,323 28,635 25,688 (30,600) (4,900) -0.15 1985 3,271,333 53,100 29,735 23,365 (37,600) (14,200) -0.43 1986 3,252,735 50,536 29,708 20,828 (39,400) (18,600) -0.57 183 | P a g e 1987 3,210,124 47,701 29,191 18,510 (61,100) (42,600) -1.31 1988 3,167,064 47,279 29,766 17,513 (60,500) (43,000) -1.34 1989 3,150,304 47,238 29,487 17,751 (34,600) (16,800) -0.53 1990 3,145,585 47,725 30,301 17,424 (22,100) (4,700) -0.15 1991 3,175,440 47,759 30,172 17,587 12,200 29,800 0.95 1992 3,220,517 47,544 30,425 17,119 28,000 45,100 1.42 1993 3,252,285 46,165 32,265 13,900 17,900 31,800 0.99 1994 3,280,940 45,607 32,082 13,525 15,100 28,600 0.88 1995 3,308,208 45,365 32,431 12,934 14,400 27,300 0.83 1996 3,340,129 46,133 32,872 13,261 18,600 31,900 0.96 1997 3,372,917 48,162 33,780 14,380 18,400 32,800 0.98 1998 3,405,194 49,354 33,810 15,544 16,800 32,300 0.96 1999 3,437,147 48,470 34,266 14,396 17,500 31,953 0.94 2000 3,450,654 49,712 34,766 14,946 (739) 13,507 0.39 2001 3,464,729 49,570 35,007 14,563 (1,922) 14,075 0.41 2002 3,484,754 50,371 35,080 15,291 6,867 20,025 0.58 2003 3,498,687 50,632 35,020 15,612 1,033 13,933 0.40 2004 3,514,449 50,923 35,736 15,187 3,032 15,762 0.45 2005 3,532,769 51,859 35,856 16,003 5,064 18,320 0.52 2006 3,574,334 52,485 35,765 16,720 25,700 41,565 1.18 2007 3,612,186 54,988 35,173 19,815 18,205 37,852 1.06 2008 3,644,025 54,579 34,792 19,787 12,052 31,839 0.88 2009 3,687,050 54,262 34,815 19,447 23,685 43,025 1.18 2010 3,751,351 51,796 35,037 16,759 47,542 64,301 1.74 2011 3,791,508 53,727 34,528 19,199 12,103 40,157 1.07 184 | P a g e