VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN XUAN THUY NATIONAL PARK

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF FORESTRY o0o STUDENT SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH REPORT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN XUAN THUY NATIONAL PARK Supervisor: Assoc.Prof Tran Quang Bao Student: Mai Phuong Thao Nguyen Lan Huong Class: 59 Natural Resource Management Major: Natural Resource Management Hanoi, Faculty: Forest Resource and Environmental Management April Hanoi, April 2017 CATEGORY LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF FIGURES iii PREFACE Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 The urgency of the problem 1.2 Research goal 1.3 Research objects 1.4 Scope and boundary Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .4 2.1 The concepts 2.2 In the world 2.3 In Vietnam .5 Studies on the impact of climate change Chapter 3: CONTENT AND METHODS .10 3.1 Research content 10 3.2 Research methods 13 Chapter 4: XUAN THUY CHARACTERISTICS 21 4.1 Natural conditions .22 4.2 Economic conditions, social 26 Chapter 5: RESEARCH RESULTS .28 5.1 Baseline and exposure 28 5.2 Sensitivity 39 5.3 Impact identifying 45 5.4 Adaptive capacity .1 5.5 Vulnerability 11 Chapter 6: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION RESPONSES 6.1 Non-structured recommendations 6.2 Structured recommendations .2 Chapter 7: CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES LIST OF TABLES Table 1: The sub-indices of the main index in World Bank vulnerability assessment to climate change for Vietnam aquaculture sector Table 2: Exposure factors 10 Table 3: Sensitivity factors 11 Table 4: Impacts matrix 17 Table 5: The vulnerability matrix 19 Table 7: Monitoring changes in number individuals of indicator migratory species within periods of time 40 Table 8: Climate changes impact on selected plant indicators species in Xuan Thuy National Park 42 Get the Exposure and sensitivity result and find in Exposure column and Sensitivity row The intersection cell is the Impact level For example: 45 Table 11: Comparing Forest management efficiency (forest area change) Table 12: Results of the survey on community participation in mangrove protection and development Table 16: Coastal adaptive technology LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Social Determinants of Adaptive Capacity chart 12 Figure 2: CAM methodology steps 14 Figure 3: Vulnerability assessment 15 Figure 4: Location of Xuan Thuy National Park 21 Figure 5: Baseline and change in precipitation in wet season in 2050 (Jun-Nov) 31 Figure 6: Baseline and change in precipitation n a dry season in 2050 (Dec – May) 32 Figure 7: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in a dry season in 2050 (December – May) 34 Figure 8: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in wet season in 2050 (Jun – Nov) .36 Figure 9: Baseline and change in average daily maximum temperature in wet season (Jun – Nov) map 38 Figure 10: National Park Administration PREFACE Thanks to the agreement of Vietnam National University of Forestry, Forest Resources, and Environment Management, we conduct scientific research: “Assess the vulnerability of the mangrove ecosystem to climate changes impacts in Xuan Thuy National Park” On the occasion of completing our study, I would like to say thank you to the administrators of the Vietnam National University of Forestry, all the teacher work in Forest Resources and Environment Management and Forest Resources and Environment Center give us a lot of help to complete the research Especially, we take this chance to express our profound gratitude towards our supervisor, especially Assoc.Prof Tran Quang Bao, who is our adviser for supporting us during all the time of conducting the research Last but not least, we would like to thank our family and friends for their unconditional support and guidance towards the completion [1] Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 The urgency of the problem Climate changes globally some common terms most prominent in the media today Their phenomenon occurrences are different among regions, but we can point out some general characteristics: increase in temperatures, excessive rainfall in the rainy seasons, precipitation reduction in the dry seasons, frequent occurrence and serious level rise in drought and flood, the complex activation of hurricanes, El Niño happens often with turbid fluctuations Global climate change is one of the greatest challenges that human face in the 21st century It is threatening to the entire ecosystem on Earth Vietnam is severely affected by climate change Climate change influences on natural system, including human also influence on every artificial systems Ecosystem is one of the most vulnerable elements in natural system, especially mangrove ecosystem Xuan Thuy National Park is the first Ramsar site in Southeast Asia, inside the Red river biosphere reserves Like other mangrove forests, Xuan Thuy National Park mangrove forest is affected by climate change It is easy to see the effects of climate change in this region: losing ecological diversity and disrupting balance internally; fauna species disappear quickly Forest structure is damaged and the regeneration ability of mangrove is very low Recognizing the importance of protecting and developing the diversity of ecosystems in Xuan Thuy National Park in in the era of climate change, we carried out research on: "The vulnerability assessment of Xuan Thuy national park climate change on mangrove forest in Xuan Thuy National Park" KEY WORD: Climate change, CAM method, qualitative, Xuan Thuy National Park [2] 1.2 Research goal 1.2.1 Goal Determining climate change impacts and the vulnerability of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh Province 1.2.2 Objective Applying spatial tools for comparing, defining potential threats and  calculating flood risks area between regions to figure out degree of risks Identifying climate change impacts level of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy national  park Determining ecosystem vulnerability degree with different risks by assessing  Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity Proposing measures to restore ecosystems based on vulnerability assessment  1.3 Research objects Research object is ecosystem in Xuan Thuy, Nam Dinh Province 1.4 Scope and boundary 1.4.1Scope Focusing on assessing Exposure level, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity based on Climatic changes, Biological respond to climate change and factors in Adaptive capacity: Social factor, Technology, Institutional management and Natural characteristic of ecosystem Xuan Thuy National Park ecosystem, Nam Dinh Province 1.4.2 Boundary This research focuses on assessing the impact of climate change and vulnerability of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy, Nam Dinh Province [3] Chapter 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 The concepts the state of the atmosphere at a time at a given place is determined Weather by a combination of factors: temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, rain, etc the long-term weather, characterized by statistical values (mean, Climate probability extremes, etc.) of the meteorological elements variation in a geographic area The average period of climate typically takes place in a few decades the change of climatic conditions than average and/or climatic Climate Change (CC) Mangrove fluctuations maintained for a long period of time, usually several decades or longer Climate change is caused by human activities altering the composition of the atmosphere or in land use exploitation a term describing an ecosystem in tropical and subtropical forms of plant-based complex tidal areas with characteristic fauna the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope Vulnerability (IPCC -2007) with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes The vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed Also, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity Response Human activities to adapt and mitigate climate change [4] 2.2 In the world There are main approaches: Impact-based Approaches - approach by impacts related to potential problems impacts assessment of climate change to the system components in different scenarios Vulnerability-based Approaches – approach by assessing social-ecological sensitivity, adaptability "Modeling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand" organization have applied "impact-based" approach for Victoria's Western Harbor and applied the "vulnerability-based" approach for Sydney Harbor The results show that both approaches provide useful information and can be used internationally However, for a vulnerability approach that allows for a variety of sources of information, including adaptive capacity index, the index is easy to quantify even when the relationships between the variables are different and not define apparently The most difficult are the transformation and quantification for variables in vulnerability assessment (eg comparison of vulnerability to sea level rise, cost-benefit analysis in the management area), the vulnerability-base approach is just semi-quantitative In contrast, impactbased approaches have the potential to provide very accurate quantified information However, the advantage of the vulnerability assessment approach is that it clearly delineates the complexity of the complexity of the E, S, and AC factors, thus identifying barriers with the ability to adapt (this is very useful for managers and policymakers) 2.3 In Vietnam In Vietnam, IUCN and WWF have carried out a report with chẹck-lists to assess the climate change vulnerability However, these checklists not depict priorities and the magnitude of problem [5] The World Bank project focuses on assessing vulnerability to climate change for the aquaculture sector in Vietnam In the conceptual model, vulnerability index is based on four factors (Allison model):  Exposure (E)  Sensitivity (S)  Potential impacts (PI)  Adaptability capacity (AC) The main index is formed and calculated from sub-indices Table 1: The sub-indices of the main index in World Bank vulnerability assessment to climate change for Vietnam aquaculture sector NO EXPOSURE (E) SENSITIVITY (S) ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Sea level rise Direct Livelihoods (aquaculture households/ total households) Poverty (including two subindices: Percentage of people below the poverty line and the percentage of monthly expenditure for aquaculture) Change in average temperature Direct labor (aquaculture labor /total labors) Infrastructure (percentage telephones/100 people and the number of beds in hospital/100 people Change in precipitation Macro-economic (the percentage of aquaculture revenue/GDP (share aquaculture GDP) Education (% high school students graduated) Extreme event Food security-the average aquaculture consumption/capita (aquaculture income) Social Capital [6] The total number of workers in the Xuan Thuy National Park managers is eight, including director, deputy director, department head and staff members There are forestry engineers, agricultural engineers, economist and junior engineers Xuan Thuy National Park has not had the forest ranger county The number of forest rangers is low and no new applications for working as forest rangers There are very few training courses, hard working conditions The average income is low (about 500,000VND/month/worker) (FIPI, 2003) Also, Xuan Thuy National Park has not had animal rescue agent or medical care system for migratory species Figure 10: National Park Administration [8] Management system and response system is Very Low or point due to a small number of forest rangers Institutional system of Xuan Thuy National Park ranks at Medium level or point 5.4.4 Natural characteristics “The results of the survey and analysis of soil and water quality in Xuan Thuy National Park:  Natural conditions, hydrometeorology and the environment in the Red River estuary are favorable for the survival and development of mangroves, as well as for the preservation of gene pools and biodiversity and rare species of Xuan Thuy National Park  The surface water quality of the Vop River and Tra River shows the organic matter contamination, especially in the Tra River, with DO, BOD and COD excess of the allowable limit for mangroves The linkage and impact of aquaculture in Xuan Thuy National Park degrade water quality should be reviewed and evaluated But in the mangrove forest in Con Lu, the DO, BOD and COD indicators tend to decrease as mangrove forests act as a filter tank Organic pollutants involved in adsorption, decomposition, filtration and deposition processes If the surface water quality in Tra river and Vap river is not improved, it will put great pressure on environmental conditions in Xuan Thuy mangrove forest  The nutrients index (T-N, T-P) at the monitoring station is low, no indication pollution  The heavy metals index is very low compared to the regulations of environmental quality for aquaculture and aquatic conservation.” (Nguyen Thi Sinh, 2012) Some species were tested in the national park and initially positive results were obtained [9] Table 13 List of flora species in Xuan Thuy national park DOMINANT SPECIES Sú - Aegiceras corniculata (L.) Blanco Bần chua - Sonneratia caseolaris (L.) Engl Trang - Kandelia candel (L.) Druce Đước - Rhizophora stylosa Griff Ô rơ - Acanthus illcifolius L., Acanthus ebracteatus Vahl Dây cóc kèn - Derris trifoliata Lour Ơ rơ - Acanthus ebracteatus Vahl INTRODUCED SPECIES Cóc vàng - Lemonitzera racemosa Willd Vẹt dù - Bruguiera parviflora (Roxb.) Wight & Arn Ex griff., Vẹt đen - Bruguiera sexangula (Lour.) Poir., Bần không cánh- Sonneratia apetala Buch.-Ham Mắm-Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh Dừa nước-Nypa fruticans Vẹt tách - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza (L.) Lamk Data source: 5TH NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE ON ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL RESOURCES Similar to plant species, there is some new animal from difference regions In the area of Xuan Thuy National Park, three exotic species are Litopenaeus vannamei (tôm thẻ chân trắng), Eriocheir sinensis (cua ra), Pomacea canaliculata (ốc bươu vàng) Litopenaeus vannamei are imported to Vietnam for aquaculture purposes In Xuan Thuy National Park, this species has been found in both coastal and ponds Crab disperses in a natural way The Pomacea canaliculata is one of the invasive species that causes serious harm to freshwater This species is mainly distributed in rice paddies, canals, ponds, freshwater ponds and some brackish water areas in the buffer zone of the park In general, the influence of invasive species is negligible Few year ago, Meretrix lyrata (Meretrix lyrata) (ngao Bến Tre) is a species distributed only in southern of Vietnam However, the introduction and expansion of this species in Xuan Thuy [10] National Park have made the Meretrix lyrata populations significantly reduce the number and distribution of the native clam (Meretrix meretrix) According to Hong Kong Bird Watching Association's survey, in last migration season, 2,346 black spoonbills had been counted, more 10% with the previous year Because of intercropping native and non-native species that mitigate the climate change impacts The only concern is preventing invasive species and control the native species population The ability to recover of the native population is not so low with suitable treatments At present, the flora species is not diversity and area is fragmented by water The storm occurs at the same time with breeding season Adaptive capacity of natural characteristic is Medium or the average point is point In detail, the adaptive capacity to temperature changes and precipitation changes is Medium The adaptive capacity to temperature changes in dry season or cold season is Medium due to the recovery of migratory birds, reforestation but lack of animal aids system and limited management system & budget The adaptive capacity to temperature changes in wet season or hot season is Medium due to large proportion of sensitive species, native and non-native inter-cropping and introduced species The adaptive capacity to precipitation changes in dry season or cold season is Medium due to good irrigation and penstocks systems, high awareness of local people, the fragmented area divided by water and change in land use planning The adaptive capacity to precipitation changes in wet season or cold season is Medium due to lack of water due to hydro-power building, less polluted soil and water and high awareness and participation of local people [11] The adaptive capacity to sea level rise is Low due to good irrigation and penstocks systems, good awareness and participation of native communities, but rudimentary tool, limitation of management system & budget Adaptive capacity level is Medium or 2.6 point 5.5 Vulnerability Similar to using Impact matrix, identifying the level of Adaptive capacity and Impacts then find the intersection cell of selected row and column [12] Table 14: Vulnerability identify (synthetic) CLIMATE E CHANGE RISKS (point) (2030 & 2050) Explanation (E) S I (impac t Explanation (S) matrix finding ) AC Explanation (AC) VA (vulnerabili ty matrix finding) TEMPERATURE Wet season: Wet season (or hot Temperature will season) average increase in the wet maximum temperature season (or hot will increase by Mediu season) 0.76oC in 2030, High m Number of 1.32oC in 2050 (4) (3) extreme hot days Number of extreme will increase by hot day is 5.41 in almost to days 2050 and 16.33 days in 2100 Dry season: Temperature will increase in the dry season (or cold season) Number of extreme cold days will increase by Very low (1) Daily maximum temperature change is 0.8oC to 1.4oC in 2030 Number of extreme cold days will increase by almost to days in 2030, Very High (4) Poikilothermic are very sensitive with temperature change Mangrove species is less sensitive to insignificant higher temperature Migratory birds are very sensitive with temperature change Mangrove ecosystem growth reduces [1] Large proportion of sensitive species Mediu Mediu Native and m m non-native (3) (3) inter-cropping Introduced species High (4) Mediu m (3) Recovery of migratory birds Lack of animal aids system Limited management Medium (3) High (4) almost to days days in 2100stable due to suffering low temperature and number of extreme cold day system & budget Reforestation plan Less human impacts PRECIPITATION (RAINFALL) Mangrove Good seedling and irrigation and immature animal penstocks Rainfall will increase are very systems 3.67% in 2030, 6.63% sensitive with High Wet season: Mediu in 2050 and 12.5% in Mediu the change of Mediu Mediu awareness of Higher rainfall in m 2100 m salinity m m local people wet season (3) Number of extreme (3) concentration & (3) (3) Fragmented high rainfall with or pH level need area divided days the appropriate by water solution - that Change in easily diluted by land use rain water planning Dry season: Low Rainfall during Very Death in Mediu Mediu Lack of water Dry season will be (1) December to February High plantation forest m m due to hydrodrier will decrease 0.7% in (5) Regeneration (3) (3) power 2030, 1.26% in 2050 degradation building and 2.4 % in 2100 Loss of habitat Less polluted Daily maximum daily Drop in soil soil and water precipitation in dry humidity and High [2] Medium (3) Medium (3) season is 78.4 mm precipitation in dry season is 78.4 mm SEA LEVEL RISE Very High (5) 86.29 % core zone will be flooded 47% buffer zone will be flooded Very High (5) increase evapotranspiratio n, so tree is dehydrated Death in plantation forest Regeneration degradation Flood risk Loss of habitat Very Change the High salinity (5) concentration, pH and water environment impact the growth rate and distribution [3] Low (2) awareness and participation of local people Irrigation and penstocks systems Limitation of management system & budget Very high Rudimentary (5) tool Good awareness and participation of native communities Chapter 6: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION RESPONSES 6.1 Non-structured recommendations  Raise awareness of the people a) Alarms about the harmful effects of global climate change b) Advocacy residential community and sponsors participating in reforestation c) Call the participation of scientists in climate change scenarios and premeditated damage affect ecosystem and social system without mangroves d) Emphasize the role of mangroves values in sustainable fisheries development and long-term livelihood  Review coastal development planning a) Prioritize conservation native mangroves plant b) Plant and control the introduced species to gain benefits c) Restoration of degraded mangroves d) Completion status quo forest area was destroyed completely e) Creating green belt area (forest strip) for coastal protection f) Limit the area of aquaculture terrain reasonable according to mitigate damages caused by natural disasters  Keep the water clean a) Do not throw garbage into rivers, canals or sea, because it will drift downstream to mangroves [1] b) Prohibition of discharges of chemicals and pesticides that polluted water flows into the sea, threatening the mangrove forests c) Use fresh water resources reasonably, limiting negative impacts from irrigation activities freshwater hoarding drought, water discharge at invasive mangrove areas 6.2 Structured recommendations  Embankment a) Develop and maintain irrigation and drainage systems b) Develop dykes, retaining walls, tidal barriers a) Move risky constructions b) Develop dykes, retaining walls, tidal barriers Table 15: Coastal adaptive technology PROTECTION Hard works: dykes, retaining walls, tidal barriers Soft works: restoration, regeneration of sand dunes, marshes, beach, accretion Traditional choice: wooden, stone, coconut leaf retaining walls; in the forest RESTORE ADAPTIVE Setting up the area behind Accident insurance New agricultural measures, Relocation of works at risk such as the use of plants against salinty Decrease development in open areas; Creating buffer beds in upland areas Early warning evacuation [2] New construction rules Improved drainage system Desalination system Removal of secondary works   [3] Chapter 7: CONCLUSIONS The spatial approach is used for vulnerable assessment of ecosystem GIS tools enable the collection of information from multi-sectors It combines the analysis and processing of data from multiple sources (such as DEM remote sensing data, spatial data and the types of statistics and historical data ) Spatial analysis was used to generate and was integrated into GIS systems E, S, and AC factors were calculated from sub-elements with a weight of influential levels The vulnerable assessment of climate change is still difficult, not only for Vietnam but also for other countries in the world Influential factors: it is strongly recommended that Sensitivity (S) and Adaptive Capability (AC) index should be combined into one because in many cases, these factors are difficult to identify correctly Some sub-factors would be put into S or AC (for example the economy of a community can be classified as adaptive capability “AC”, but also can be considered to be used in “S”) However, no matter what element is identified, the results of the Vulnerability not change (for example: if you put the economic potential of the community in the value of S its value will be inverted if you put it in AC) Equation and weights depend on expert opinion Indicators of valuable depend on data available The different indicators and variables may lead to the different results of different Vulnerability Equation and methodology approach has applied the base on theoretical and approaches of the IPCC in comparison of vulnerability [4] This method is appropriate for comparing regions within a country In a larger scale, many variables are high within a region but in another region, these variables can be considered low The vulnerability-base approach is a semi-quantitative because some social variances are difficult to quantify exactly thresholds for ranking Sometimes, it is a complicated process to identify the finance sources and evidence for human activities in responding to clime change   [5] REFERENCES Donald, R Cahoona, Philippe F Hensel., 2006; High-Resolution Global Assessment of Mangrove Responses to Sea-Level Rise: A Review In Proceedings of the Symposium on Mangrove Responses to Relative Sea-Level Rise and Other Climate Change Effects\ Cairns Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia, 13 July 2006 Mai Trong Nhuan, Nguyen Thi Minh Ngoc, Nghiem Quynh Huong, Nguyen Thi Hong Hue, Nguyen Tai Tue, Pham Bao Ngoc, 2008\ Assessment of Vietnam coastal wetland vulnerability for sustainable use (Case study in Xuan Thuy Ramsar site, Nam Dinh province), Proc Asian Wetland Symp., Hà 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"The vulnerability assessment of Xuan Thuy national park climate change on mangrove forest in Xuan Thuy National Park" KEY WORD: Climate change, CAM method, qualitative, Xuan Thuy National Park. .. Goal Determining climate change impacts and the vulnerability of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh Province 1.2.2 Objective Applying spatial tools for comparing, defining potential... regeneration ability of mangrove is very low Recognizing the importance of protecting and developing the diversity of ecosystems in Xuan Thuy National Park in in the era of climate change, we carried