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FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS -*** ECONOMETRICS REPORT FACTORS THAT AFFECT NUMBER OF SAME-SEX MARRIAGE IN THE UNITED STATES Group Class: K57 Japanese styled International Business Vũ Thị Ba – 1810520154 Phạm Kim Ngân – 1810520208 Ngô Bảo Tâm – 1810520218 Instructor: Dr Từ Thuý Anh Hanoi, 2019 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I Introduction About the topic History and development 10 Public opinions 12 II Literature Review 14 III Theoretical background 15 IV Descriptive statistic of Data 18 V Econometrics model 20 Set up a general model 20 Interpret the model 21 VI Robustness check 22 Collinearity 22 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Normality 24 Heteroscedasticity 25 VII Finding and Discussion 26 VIII Conclusion 28 IX References 29 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ABSTRACT The 21st century has been witnessing many outstanding achievements and development in human history Together with the expansion of economy and the revolution digital technology, there has been a significant elevation of awareness towards human community, especially same-sex relationship In June 2015, the United State officially released approval on same-sex marriage, making great changes not only in the US, but also created groundbreaking events to all other countries in the world Therefore, our group does a research based on the topic “The factors affecting the number of same-sex marriage of United State in 2014” Thanks to doing this research, partly, we can understand more deeply about the awareness community towards same-sex marriage and find out the solutions to help the same-sex couples have better lives Our research has parts: Part 1: INTRODUCTION There is an introduction of same-sex marriage and literature review to make sure that everyone partly understand and has an overview about the topic Furthermore, theoretical background, which illustrates the theories used in this research will also be discussed Part 2: CONTENT This is the most important part of this research that points to capture and process data based on analytical methods of econometrics before creating the regression model of factors that affect the number of same-sex marriage of the US in the year 2014 In addition, the robustness check will be added to clarify the accuracy of this model in the following chapter LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Part 3: SUMMARY In the last part of this research, we will recap and evaluate the research According to this evaluation, we will suggest some solutions to for futher discussion As the final words, we are looking forward to your comments and recommendation about our research Due to lack of time and our own limit in specialized knowledge and skills, there must be some mistakes in our research, and your advice would be invaluable to all of us LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com RESEARCH OBJECTIVES 1.1 GENERAL OBJECTIVES Point out the factors affecting the number of same-sex marriage in United States Find out how these factors affect the amount of same-sex marriage in United States 1.2 DETAIL OBJECTIVES Determine what these factors are Analyze whether they are good or bad factors Suggest some solutions to improve situation if necessary and how to use the result of the research effectively RESEARCH TARGET Range research: Based on data of number of same-sex marriage in United States that collected by Wikipedia websites Time research: 2014 Research subjects: 50 states of United States RESEARCH METHODS Find information on internet Use econometrics models and analyze data in Gretl and Excel LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com SAMPLE SIZE AND SAMPLE-CHOOSING METHOD Sample size: 50 observations Sample-choosing method: Collect data from researches that were carried out by many sources LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com I INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE TOPIC The history of same-sex marriage in the United States dates from the early 1970s, when the first lawsuits seeking legal recognition of same-sex relationships brought the question of civil marriage rights and benefits for same-sex couples to public attention though they proved unsuccessful In 1972, the now overturned Baker v Nelson saw the Supreme Court of the United States decline to become involved The issue became prominent from around 1993, when the Supreme Court of Hawaii ruled in Baehr v Lewin that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex That ruling led to federal and state actions to explicitly abridge marriage on the basis of sex in order to prevent the marriages of same-sex couples from being recognized by law, the most prominent of which was the 1996 federal DOMA In 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled in Goodridge v Department of Public Health that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex From 2004 through to 2015, as the tide of public opinion continued to move towards support of same-sex marriage, various state court rulings, state legislation, direct popular votes (referendums and initiatives), and federal court rulings established same-sex marriage in thirty-six of the fifty states Same-sex marriage in the United States expanded from one state in 2004 to all fifty states in 2015 through various state court rulings, state legislation, direct popular votes, and federal court rulings Same-sex marriage is also referred to as gay marriage, while the political status in which the marriages of same-sex couples and the marriages of opposite-sex couples are recognized as equal by the law is referred to as marriage equality The fifty states each have separate marriage laws, which must adhere to rulings by the Supreme Court of the United States that recognize LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com marriage as a fundamental right that is guaranteed by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution, as first established in the 1967 landmark civil rights case of Loving v Virginia The first two decades of the 21st century saw same-sex marriage receive support from prominent figures in the African-American civil rights movement, including Coretta Scott King, John Lewis, Julian Bond, and Mildred Loving In May 2011, national public support for same-sex marriage rose above 50% for the first time In May 2012, the NAACP, the leading African-American civil rights organization, declared its support for same-sex marriage and stated that it is a civil right In June 2013, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down DOMA for violating the Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution in the landmark civil rights case of United States v Windsor, leading to federal recognition of same-sex marriage, with federal benefits for married couples connected to either the state of residence or the state in which the marriage was solemnized By late 2014, same-sex marriage had become legal in states that contained more than 70% of the United States population In some jurisdictions legalization came through the action of state courts or the enactment of state legislation More frequently it came as the result of the decisions of federal courts In May 2015, national public support for same-sex marriage rose to 60% for the first time In June 2015, the Supreme Court ruled in the landmark civil rights case of Obergefell v Hodges that the fundamental right of same-sex couples to marry on the same terms and conditions as opposite-sex couples, with all the accompanying rights and responsibilities, is guaranteed by both the Due Process Clause and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com The most prominent supporters of same-sex marriage are human rights and civil rights organizations as well as the medical and scientific communities, while the most prominent opponents are religious groups The ruling of the Supreme Court in Obergefell occurred following decades of consistently rising national public support for same-sex marriage in the United States, with support continuing to rise thereafter A study of nationwide data from January 1999 to December 2015 revealed that the establishment of same-sex marriage is associated with a significant reduction in the rate of attempted suicide among children, with the effect being concentrated among children of a minority sexual orientation, leading to approximately 134,000 fewer children attempting suicide each year in the United States The United States of America is the most populous country in the world to have established same-sex marriage nationwide HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT Civil rights campaigning in support of marriage without distinction as to sex or sexual orientation began in the 1970s In 1972, the now overturned Baker v Nelson saw the Supreme Court of the United States decline to become involved The issue became prominent from around 1993, when the Supreme Court of Hawaii ruled in Baehr v Lewin that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex That ruling led to federal and state actions to explicitly abridge marriage on the basis of sex in order to prevent the marriages of same-sex couples from being recognized by law, the most prominent of which was the 1996 federal DOMA In 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled in Goodridge v Department of Public Health that it was unconstitutional under the state constitution for the state to abridge marriage on the basis of sex From 2004 through to 2015, as the tide of public opinion continued to move towards support of same-sex marriage, various state court rulings, state 10 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com III THEORETICAL BACKGROUND Same-sex marriage (also known as gay marriage) is the marriage of a same-sex couple, entered into in a civil or religious ceremony The term marriage equality refers to a political status in which the marriages of samesex couples and the marriages of opposite-sex couples are recognized as equal by the law As of 2018, same-sex marriage is performed and recognized by law (nationwide or in some jurisdictions) in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay Also, Israel recognizes the relation unions of same-sex couples validly entered into in other countries Same-sex marriage is also due to soon become performed and recognized by law in Austria, Costa Rica, and Taiwan Moreover, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has issued a rulling which is expected to encourage recognition in lots of nations within the Americas The introduction of same-sex marriage has varied by jurisdiction, being variously accomplished through legislative change to marriage law, an apex court ruling based on constitutional guarantees of equality, by recognition that it is allowed by the existing marriage law, or by direct popular vote (via referenda and initiatives) The recognition of same-sex marriage is considered to be a human right and a civil right as well as a political, social, and religious issue The most prominent supporters of same-sex marriage are human rights and civil rights organizations as well as the medical and scientific communities, while the most prominent opponents are religious groups Polls 15 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com consistently show continually rising support for the recognition of same-sex marriage in all developed democracies and in some developing democracies Scientific studies show that the financial, psychological, and physical well-being of gay people are enhanced by marriage, and that the children of same-sex parents benefit from being raised by married same-sex couples within a marital union that is recognized by law and supported by societal institutions Social science research indicates that the exclusion of homosexuals from marriage stigmatizes and invites public discrimination against them, with research also rejecting the notion that either civilization or viable social orders depend upon restricting marriage to heterosexuals Samesex marriage can provide those in committed same-sex relationships with relevant government services and make financial demands on them comparable to that required of those in opposite-sex marriages, and also gives them legal protections such as inheritance and hospital visitation rights Opposition to same-sex marriage is based on claims such as the beliefs that homosexuality is unnatural and abnormal, that the recognition of samesex unions will promote homosexuality in society, and that children are better off when raised by opposite-sex couples These claims are refuted by science which shows that homosexuality is a natural and normal human sexuality, that sexual orientation is not a choice, and that the children of same-sex couples fare just as well or even better than the children of opposite-sex couples A study of nationwide data from across the United States from January 1999 to December 2015 revealed that the establishment of same-sex marriage is associated with a significant reduction in the rate of attempted suicide among children, with the effect being concentrated among children of a 16 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com minority sexual orientation, resulting in approximately 134,000 fewer children attempting suicide each year in the United States 17 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com IV DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC OF DATA MEAN, STANDARD ERRORS, MEDIAN (APPENDIX 1) Variable(s) Mean Maximum Minimum Median Variance S 4910.8 47819 180.00 2252.0 56151043.56 A (%) 0.64824 0.90000 0.36000 0.65000 0.01419 L 0.74510 1.0000 0.00000 1.0000 0.19372 ✓ Comment: - S (Amount of Same sex marriages): The result shows us: Average value of data: 4910.8 Median of data: 2252.0, Maximum value is 47819.0 and Minimum value is 180.00 Standard deviation is 7493.4 equivalent to the Variance is 56151043.56 ⇨ We can see that the data has a difference (very large, so it is not possible to evaluate by means of medium or percentile to give a general result level This represents the importance of construction econometric model to give the best numbers 18 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com - A (Approval): % The result shows us: Average value of data: 0.64824 Median of data: 0.65000, Maximum value is 0.90000 and Minimum value is 0.36000 Standard deviation is 0.11911 equivalent to the Variance is 0.01419 We can see that the data has no big difference - L (Legalized) The result shows us: Average value of data: 0.74510 Median of data: 1.0000, Maximum value is 1.0000 and Minimum value is 0.00000 Standard deviation is 0.44014 equivalent to the Variance is 0.19372 19 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com V ECONOMETRICS MODEL SET UP A GENERAL MODEL Form of model: lnS = 9.64 + 3.93*lnA – 0.03*L DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Variable Meaning S Same sex marriage EXPLANATORY VARIABLE: Coefficient Expectation mark Unit Meaning A + % Approval of same sex marriage L + 0,1 Legalized or not Description Data: Table (Appendix part) INTERPRET THE MODEL Intercept β1 = 9.64 indicates that when the percentage of approval, legalization of same-sex marriage in each state is 0, the number of same-sex marriage with the lowest value is 9.64 Coefficient β2 = 3.93 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, if the number of percentages approval raises 1%, the average number of same-sex marriages increases by 3.93% 20 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com β3 = - 0.03 indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, if the number of states that legalize same-sex marriage is increased, the number of same-sex marriages decreases by 0.03% Index: R-squared = 0.410484 show that: 41.0484% of the variation in samesex marriages is explained by variables: percentage of approval and legalization in each state We can not use this model because we have not checked the tests such as white-test, normality… We predict that the increase of the approval will increase the number of same-sex marriages Now we will check to prove it 21 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com VI ROBUSTNESS CHECK COLLINEARITY a DEFINITION In statistics multicollinearity (also collinearity) is a phenomenon in which one predictor variable in a multiple regression model can be linearly predicted from the others with a substantial degree of accuracy In this situation the coefficient estimates of the multiple regression may change erratically in response to small changes in the model or the data Multicollinearity does not reduce the predictive power or reliability of the model as a whole, at least within the sample data set; it only affects calculations regarding individual predictors That is, a multivariate regression model with collinear predictors can indicate how well the entire bundle of predictors predicts the outcome variable, but it may not give valid results about any individual predictor, or about which predictors are redundant with respect to others Note that in statements of the assumptions underlying regression analyses such as ordinary least squares, the phrase "no multicollinearity" is sometimes used to mean the absence of perfect multicollinearity, which is an exact (non-stochastic) linear relation among the regressors Detection: b CHECK VIF stands for Variance Inflation Factor During regression analysis, VIF assesses whether factors are correlated to each other (multicollinearity), which could affect p-values and the model isn’t going to be as reliable 22 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com If a VIF is greater than 10, you have high multicollinearity and the variation will seem larger and the factor will appear to be more influential than it is If VIF is closer to 1, then the model is much stronger, as the factors are not impacted by correlation with other factors In the collinearity test, we can see that the Variance Inflation Factors of both variables are below 10 So that this model doesn’t have collinearity NORMALITY a DEFINITION In statistics, normality tests are used to determine if a data set is wellmodeled by a normal distribution and to compute how likely it is for a random variable underlying the data set to be normally distributed 23 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com b CHECK Detection: 𝐽𝐵 = 𝑛 (𝑆 + (𝐾 − 3)2 ) Where S and K are the sample Skewness and Kurtosis statistics The JB test has an asymptotic chi-square distribution with two degrees of freedom Hypothesis: {𝐻0 : 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐻1: 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑁𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑒𝑑 According to this graph, chi-squared equals to 5.936, The p-value equals to 0.0514, even the u does not come from a normal distribution parameters estimates will be asymptotically normal according to Central Limit Theorem HETEROSCEDASTICITY 24 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com a DEFINITION The word “heteroscedasticity” comes from the Greek, and quite literally means data with a different (hetero) dispersion (skedasis) In simple terms, heteroscedasticity is any set of data that isn’t homoscedastic More technically, it refers to data with unequal variability (scatter) across a set of second, predictor variables b CHECK In order to know whether our model is heteroscedasticity or not, we use White’s test Hypothesis {𝐻0: 𝑣𝑎𝑟 (𝑢𝑖 ) = 𝛿 𝐻1: 𝑣𝑎𝑟 (𝑢𝑖 ) = 𝛿𝑖 (If 𝐻0 is rejected, our model is heteroscedasticity) Conclusion: We have p-value = 0.658742 > 0.05 With a 5% significance level, heteroscedasticity is not presented 25 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com VII FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION According to OLS model, the t-ratio of X2 (% of approval) is 5.466, meanwhile the p-value of it is equal to 1.62e^-06 Therefore, at the 1% level of significance, we have enough evidence not to reject X2 variable (statistically significant), and at the same time, the approval of the society is important to same sex marriages However, X3 variable (legalized) has p-value=0.9161 and the t-ratio= -0.1059, so in theory, X3 variable is not statistically significant But because of the importance of being legalized to recognizing a wedding as legal, X3 variances can still be kept in our model The legalized actually has a significant impact in the amount of same-sex marriage in the US It is proved in the fact that some states have more same-sex marriages than the others, partly from the early legalized of the State’s Constitutions As from the OLS model, the impact of the percentage of approval is much higher than the legalized of State’s Constitutions This means that the public opinions have a great influence on LGBT people not only to decide same-sex marriage but also to prevail their gender Fortunately, Americans are become more and more open to this topic Seven out of ten Americans now say that they favor “affirmative action programs to help blacks, women and other minorities seek better jobs and education,” a 12-point increase since 1995, with support increasing among most demographic and political groups; but the number favoring “preferential treatment” for minorities, 34%, is no higher than in the early 1990s African Americans, who overwhelmingly favored such programs 12 years ago, continue to so (94% in 1995, 93% today) By comparison, nearly two-thirds of whites (65%) now support affirmative action programs, compared with 53% in 1995 White college graduates — and whites who attended college but have not graduated — are 26 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com much more supportive of affirmative actions than they were in the mid-1990s 27 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com VIII CONCLUSION The above research results have given us a clear and relative view of the factors that can have an impact on same sex marriage in the US Same-sex marriage is still a debatable issue in the world Being one of the countries that legalize same-sex marriage, the United States has now witnessed many homosexuals find their love and go to marriage To reach a happy, full-blown endings, these people are more or less affected by surrounding factors The points above are just some of the factors that our team thinks will affect their decision to go to the happy ending - the marriage The survey and evaluation of the influencing factors to build the model must still contain some errors, we sincerely look forwards to your comments and recommendation All comments and reminders from you will become valuable experiences for us in other researches in the future 28 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com IX REFERENCES Introduction to Econometrics Brief edition - James H Stock, Mark W Watson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samesex_marriage_in_the_United_States#Marriage_statistics - Marriage statistic http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2007/05/21/support-affirmativeaction-programs/ http://www.pewforum.org/2012/12/07/overview-of-same-sex-marriage-inthe-united-states/ 29 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ... GENERAL OBJECTIVES Point out the factors affecting the number of same- sex marriage in United States Find out how these factors affect the amount of same- sex marriage in United States 1.2 DETAIL... view of the factors that can have an impact on same sex marriage in the US Same- sex marriage is still a debatable issue in the world Being one of the countries that legalize same- sex marriage, the. .. indicates that when other explanatory variables remain unchanged, if the number of states that legalize same- sex marriage is increased, the number of same- sex marriages decreases by 0.03% Index:
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