tiểu luận kinh tế lượng FACTORS AFFECT STOCK PRICES AT HOSE 2013 – 2017

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION =====000===== ECONOMETRICS REPORT FACTORS AFFECT STOCK PRICES AT HOSE 2013 – 2017 Class: KTEE218 (1-1920).1 Instructor: Mrs Nguyen Thuy Quynh Group: 13 Do Hong Khanh 1814450044 Nguyen Thu Hang 1814450037 Nguyen Van Hoang 1814450040 Luan Thi My Hang 1814450036 Ha Noi – 09/2019 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION CONTENTS .2 I RESEARCH OVERVIEW Overview of Viet Nam stock price – Index 1.1 Definition .2 1.2 Meaning 1.3 Fomulas Previous studies on the impact of macroeconomics factors on stock prices in the atock market 3 Factors affecting the price of the stock used in the report .5 3.1 Inflation 3.2 Interest rate 3.3 Exchange rate 3.4 Money supply II MODEL BUILDING Model Data sources Data description of the model .10 3.1 Statistical description 10 3.2 Correlation variables 10 III STATISTICAL EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS RESULTS   11 Result analysis 11 Statistical hypothesis test  12 2.1 Expectation test  12 2.2 Inspection of statistical significance of regression coefficients  13 2.3 Calibration of model  13 Result demonstration 14 Policy proposal  14 4.1 The government 14 4.2 State bank 15 4.3 Business .15 CONCLUSION 16 APPENDIX 17 REFERENCES 19 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com INTRODUCTION The stock market is one of the channels for measuring a country's economic development and is considered to be effective when stock prices are quickly adjusted when new information is available Vietnam’s stock market officially came into operation in July 2000,  more than 17 years of knowing the ups and downs are not only due to the psychological factor of the investor but also influenced by government policy regulation, macroeconomic variables of economic economy Therefore, analyzing the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market is a necessary and useful thing Thereby, we can easily introduce solutions to the negative effects of macroeconomic factors on the stock market as well as help to develop the stock market in accordance with the economic situation Currently, there are many articles, researches on the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock market However, in different time and conditions, the factors and the level of impact on the stock market will not be the same With the above reasons, combined with the desire to have a deeper understanding of economic issues and apply theories, economic knowledge in general and econometrics in particular have been studied , our team decided to explore the topic: “FACTORS AFFECT STOCK PRICES AT HOSE 2013 – 2017”, in order to analyze macro factors affecting the VN-Index stock index, thereby suggesting ideas for the development and improvement of macroeconomic management and management policies, contributing to improving High efficiency of stock market The essay content consists of parts: Part I: Research overview  Part II: Building model Part III: Statistical evaluation and analysis results  The report is based on the use of regression model of Econometrics to study, combine with the knowledge of macroeconomic knowledge, learn some references and the guidance of lecturer in Econometrics While making reports, it is difficult to avoid some mistakes or shortcomings Our team hopes to receive your comments so that we can improve the report We' d like to thank you!  LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com CONTENT I RESEARCH OVERVIEW Overview of VN-index stock price index According to the Investment and Finance Dictionary, the stock price index is the cost of buying a stock in the market, which can be affected by various factors such as volatility in the market, economic conditions and reputation of the company On the other hand, the stock price index is the average of the prices of a set of component stocks traded on the stock market at a given time These types of component stocks have the common characteristics that are traded on the same Stock Exchange, the market capitalization scale is similar Thus, the stock price index is a statistical value that reflects the movements of the stock market Market investors and market managers can adopt it to describe the market and compare the profits before making investment decisions  Currently, there are methods commonly used in calculating stock price indexes such as Passcher method, Laspeyres method, Fisher average price index method, simple average digital method, simple geometric average method The VN-Index is the index that greatly influences the psychology of investors Therefore, we will use VN-index as the index representing the Vietnam’s stock market 1.1 Definition VN-Index is built based on the market value of all stocks listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) With this index system, investors can assess and analyze the market in general 1.2 Meaning VN-Index is the index of fluctuations in prices of all listed stocks and transactions in Ho Chi Minh city’s Stock Exchange The VN-Index compares the current market capitalization with the base market capitalization on July 28, 2000, the first day the stock market officially came into operation In other words, the VNIndex shows how many times the value of the whole HOSE has changed, which shows us the value and scale of the HOSE changed; the fluctuations of VN-Index in each session reflected the fluctuations of all stocks traded on the HOSE LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Ex: VN-Index on October 16, 2017 was 819.43, this means that the market value of all listed and traded stocks on the HOSE is 8,1943 times the base value 1.3 Fomulas VN-Index = (CMV / BMV) x 100 CMV = ∑pit x qit BMV = ∑pio x qio Contain : - CMV: The current market capitalization - BMV: The value of the market capitalization - is adjusted in cases such as new listing, delisting and cases of change in listed capital  - pit: The price of stock i at the time of calculation - qit: The listed volume of stock i at the time of calculation - pio: The price of stock i at the base time - qio: The listed volume of stock i at the base time Previous studies on the impact of macroeconomics factors on stock prices in the atock market Factors affecting stock prices are found in experimental studies that include macro factors and underlying factors related to financial and operational relationships of companies  Since it is not possible to list all of the relevant studies, so we only list a few typical studies as basis for our research First of all, Al-qenae and collaborators (2002) In this study, the authors measured the impact of the earnings per share (EPS), gross national product (GNP), interest rates and inflation on the prices of listed stocks on the Kuwait stock market during 1981 - 1997 Research results show that stock prices are positively correlated with EPS and GNP variables, but negatively correlated with interest and inflation Tsoukalas (2003) examines the relationship between the stock price in the Cyprus stock exchange and the macroeconomic factors used in the study, including the chain of stocks, industrial production value, CPI, money and exchange rate over the period of time collected for the period from 1975 to 1998  Using the Ganger test, the results of the study show that the prices of stocks listed on the Cyprus stock market are closely related to the macroeconomic factors selected for research LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Next, Al-Tamimi and his collaborators (2007) studied the factors affecting the prices of stocks listed on the UAE stock market (United Arab Emirates) This study uses price data of 17 stocks collected between 1990 and 2005 Research results show that earnings per share (EPS) is a factor that has a strong and positive impact on the price of stocks The factors of money supply and GDP are also positively correlated with the prices of stocks but are not statistically significant In addition, this study also shows that the consumer price index and interest rates are inversely correlated with the prices of stocks listed on the UAE stock market However, only the relationship between the consumer price index and the price of stocks is statistically significant Liu and Shrestha (2008) tested the relationship between stock prices in China's stock market and macro factors, including industrial production value, exchange rates, inflation, money supply and interest rates This study used secondary data for all variables from January 1992 to December 2001 Using the cointegration test, the authors found a positive correlation between stock prices and industrial production value and money supply and a negatively correlation between stock prices and inflation, interest rates and exchange rates Based on the empirical evidence found, the authors recommend to investors that when they want to invest in the Chinese stock market, they should invest in the long term because in the short term the Chinese stock market strongly stocks fluctuate so they are extremely risky Hussainey and Ngoc (2009) study the effects of Vietnam's macro factors (industrial production value, consumer price index, interest rates) and the US (S&P 500 index, industrial production value, consumer price index, government bond interest rate) to the price of stocks in Vietnam The research results show that the value of industrial production in both Vietnam and the US is positively correlated with the price of stocks in Vietnam In addition, this study found an inverse relationship between interest rates and stock prices but not statistically significant  Mehr-un-Nisa and Nishat (2012) studied the effect of corporate financial ratios and macro factors on the prices of stocks listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange (Pakistan) Using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on 221 companies' data between 1995-2006, the authors found a positive correlation between stock price with capital structures, market value ratios on the book value, EPS and the company size Regarding the macro factors, research results show that stock prices are positively correlated with GDP growth, money supply and financial depth In contrast, stock prices are negatively correlated with interest rates and inflation rates LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Eita (2012) studies the effects of macro factors on the prices of stocks on the Namibia stock market This study uses time data with quarterly frequency of stock prices, money supply, inflation, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates from 1998 to 2009 Consistent with the results of previous studies, this study shows that the prices of stocks are negatively correlated with interest rates and inflation In contrast, the factors of GDP, exchange rate and money supply are positively correlated with the prices of stocks Aurangzeb (2012)  identifies factors affecting the prices of stocks on three stock markets in the South Asia, which is Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka  Data used for this study were collected for the period from 1997 to 2010 The results of the regression analysis show that foreign direct investment (FDI), the exchange rate are positively correlated, while that of interest rates are negatively correlated with the prices of stocks listed on the stock exchange in South Asia In addition, the research results show that inflation is negatively correlated with the prices of stocks but not statistically significant In another study, Phan Thi Bich Nguyet and Pham Duong Phuong Thao (2013) studied the effects of some macro factors on the market price index of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (VN-Index) in the period 7/2000 to 9/2011 The research results show that the supply factors, industrial output and world oil prices are correlated with the market price index In contrast, the interest rate and exchange rate variables are inversely correlated with the change of VN-Index Especially, the authors found a positive correlation between inflation and market price index but it was not statistically significant In summary, empirical studies have shown that EPS is a factor that greatly affects the price of stocks In addition, macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, money supply, GDP, industrial production value are also factors that have certain effects on the prices of listed stocks in the stock market The empirical evidence found in studies conducted on the Vietnamese stock market is basically consistent with studies conducted in emerging stock markets LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Factors affecting the price of the stock used in the report Inheriting the theoretical and empirical studies mentioned and in accordance with the data in Vietnam, we have chosen macroeconomic variables to consider the correlation with the stock market: the rate of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and industrial production values  3.1 Inflation Inflation is a term used to indicate the price of goods and services increased over time compared to a previously determined period There are many causes of inflation, including two main causes: demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation For the stock market, when inflation increases, the increase in interest rates will also increase to ensure the positive interest rates and stock market channels become less attractive than the other investment channels, such as the amount of the stock and the stock - price reduction In addition, when inflation increases, the company's input costs will increase and the company's profit will also indirectly cause the stock to decrease 3.2 Interest rates The interest rate is the cost that the borrower must pay for using the lender's capital Interest rates are one of the important factors affecting the overall growth and development of the economy When interest rates fall, there is a positive impact on the stock price index Because lower cost of capital makes it easier for companies to raise capital to implement investment projects, as well as reduce costs for companies using large financial leverage, which will improv ecorporate profits and increase the company's stock price Conversely, when the interest rate increases will have a negative impact on the overall operation of the economy When interest rates rise, it will increase lending rates for customers, reducing the demand for consumer spending and shopping activities As a result, it affects the production and business activities, the profits of the company and the securities become less attractive in the market 3.3 Exchange rate The exchange rate is the exchange rate between two currencies whereby one currency will be converted into another currency by a certain percentage There are ways to quote prices directly and indirectly, depending on each country, you will choose the appropriate price for each foreign currency LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com According to economic theory, the exchange rate can impact stock prices in two different directions When the exchange rate rises in a direct manner, the local currency will be lost in addition to the stable investment environment that will attract more capital from foreign investment in the country to seek profit and price disparity However, on the other hand, the increase of exchange rate has a negative impact on the stock market When adjusting the exchange rate increase will affect exports, indirectly affecting the economic growth and production activities of the company thereby affecting the company's profits, and reduces stock prices 3.4 Money supply Money supply is the amount of money taken into the economy to meet the needs such as payment means, the demand for storage of the hosts in the economy Money supply measures include: - M0: Including cash, is a part of paper money issued by the central bank circulating outside the banking system - M1: Including M0 and non - recurring deposits, these deposits can be withdrawn at any time upon request, may exist under a checking or nonchecking account.  - M2: Including M1, savings deposits, term deposits at banks - M3: Including m2, deposits in other financial institutions outside the bank  - L: As the widest measure , including M3, valuable securities such as treasury bills, commercial bills, and bank drafts … If the money supply expands, it will lead to an increase in goods consumption as well as an increase in the use of financial assets, of which securities are one When the money supply increases, the outstanding liquidity will affect the stock market quite strongly due to the impact of rapid and direct monetary policy When implementing the expansionary monetary policy, the more money flowing into circulation will reduce the lending interest rates as well as the discount interest rates This will increase the demand for financial assets, including stocks On the other hand, when lending rates are reduced to help reduce the discount rate of stock over thereby increasing the expected value of investors Higher interest rates due to the impact of tight monetary policies often have a negative impact on the stock market The reason: first, to reduce the price of securities by increasing the discount rate in valuation models; second, making fixed income securities a more attractive option that reduces liquidity in stocks; third, reduce the trend of borrowing to invest in securities; and finally, increasing operating costs thus affecting company profits LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com  If the money supply increases, it means that the demand for money increases, leading to an increase in economic activity The higher economic activity means the higher the cash flow, the higher the stock price increases, which means that the increase in money will lead to more stable growth and growth for the stock market  Industrial production value : It is the aggregate indicator reflecting the production result of the industry produced in a given period of time This is the basis for assessing the situation of industrial development of a country When the value of industrial output has grown, this shows that the economy is in the development stage and companies are doing business efficiently and profitably; Increase profits for shareholders As a result, this makes the stock of the company more attractive and the stock price of the companies as well as the stock price index in the stock market will increase II Building Model Model From the macroeconomic factor above, we would suggest this regression model: - The overall regression function model: (PRF): VNIndex = β0 + β1 CPI+ β2 IR+ β3 M2 + β4 EX+ β5 IO+ ui - Sample regression function model: ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿ (SRF) : VNIndex = β + β 1CPI+ β 2IR+ β M2 + β EX+ β IO+ ui Explain the variables: No Variable sign Content "Stock price index VNIndex (Last day price of the last day of the month)" CPI "Consumer price index representing inflation (month’s % Unit Expected sign Point % - LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com change in comparison with the same period of the previous year)” IR "Interest rate (Average interbank interest rate for month period of days in the month) " % - M2 "The money supply (months’% change in comparison with the same period of the previous year)” % + EX Average interbank exchange rate between VND / USD (Exchange rate on the last day of the month) Thousands dong + IO "Value of industrial output (The monthly increase over the same period last year) " % + - Therein: · Dependent variables: VNIndex · Independent variables: CPI, IR, M2, EX, IO Data source LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Data description of the model 3.1 Statistics description Running sum command on Stata software, we got the result: sum CPI IR M2 EX IO VNIndex Variable Obs Mean CPI IR M2 EX IO 60 60 60 60 60 3.506167 3.844833 18.966 21625.62 8.195 VNIndex 60 614.5642 Std Dev Min Max 2.150251 1.191483 4.745002 539.2143 3.486897 1.51 13.54 20828 7.5 6.3 41.93 22471 21.1 110.9719 472.7 984.24 Based on the above results, we have the following summary table: Variable Number of The Standard Smallest Maximum 10 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com name observations average value deviation value value CPI 60 3.506167 2.150251 7.5 IR 60 3.844833 1.191483 1.51 6.3 M2 60 18.966 4.745002 13.54 41.93 EX 60 21625.62 539.2143 20828 22471 IO 60 8.195 3.486897 0.7 21.1 3.2 Matrix correlation between variables Before running the regression model, we consider the degree of correlation between variables using the corr command We obtained the correlation table between the variables as follows: Based on the correlation coefficient matrix, we see: The variables CPI, IR, M2 have a negative correlation coefficient, indicating the opposite effect on the dependent variable The variables: EX, IO have a positive correlation coefficient, showing the same directional impact on the dependent variable: - The correlation coefficient between CPI variable and VNIndex is -0.2736 - The correlation coefficient between the IR variable and the VNIndex is 0.6108 - The correlation coefficient between M2 variable and VNIndex is -0.4448 - The correlation coefficient between EX variable and VNIndex is 0.8299 - The correlation coefficient between IO variable and VNIndex is 0.3480 11 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Thus, among the factors studied, the EX variable has the strongest correlation with the VNIndex, or the VND / USD exchange rate has a great influence on the stock price on the HOSE Correlation coefficient between variables with positive sign indicates a positive relationship between the variables, if the exchange rate increases, the stock price on the HOSE will increase II ESTIMATED RESULTS AND STATISTICS Analyze the results To run the regression function, issue the reg command : reg VNIndex CPI IR M2 EX IO Source SS df MS Model Residual 592480.057 134091.035 54 118496.011 2483.16732 Total 726571.092 59 12314.7643 VNIndex Coef CPI IR M2 EX IO _cons 13.04542 -23.07283 -2.686245 1548159 5.293468 -2682.886 Std Err 3.827236 6.550282 1.858391 0156965 2.046893 356.639 t 3.41 -3.52 -1.45 9.86 2.59 -7.52 Number of obs F( 5, 54) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.001 0.001 0.154 0.000 0.012 0.000 = = = = = = 60 47.72 0.0000 0.8154 0.7984 49.831 [95% Conf Interval] 5.372273 -36.20535 -6.412096 1233463 1.189694 -3397.904 20.71857 -9.940302 1.039605 1862855 9.397242 -1967.868 From the above table, we have Sample Regression Function SRF VNIndex= -2682.886 + 13.045*CPI – 23.073*IR – 2.686*M2 + 0.155*EX+ 5.293*IO (SE): (356.639) (3.827) (6.550) (1.858) (0.016) (2.047) (P-value): (0.001) (0.001) (0.154) (0.000) (0.012) 1.1 Interpret the results From the regression results table, we see:  ^β 1=13.045 :when the inflation rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN−Index price index increases (decreases) by 13,045% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged  ^β 2=−23.073 : When the interest rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN−Index decreases (increases) by 23.074% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged 12 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com  ^β 3=−2.686 : when the money supply increased (decreased) by 1%, the VN−Index decreased (increased) by 2,686% in the condition that other factors remained unchanged  ^β =0.155: when the exchange rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN−Index increases (decreases) by 0.155% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged  ^β 5=5.293 :when the value of industrial production increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN-Index increases (decreases) by 5.293% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged Determination of the statistical assumptions 2.1 Determination of expectation From the results, we found ^β 1=13.045, ^β =0.155, ^β 5=5.293 or otherwise is CPI, EX, IO have the same direction effect on Vnindex; ^β 2=−23.073 , ^β =−2.686 or have the opposite direction effect on VNIndex The coeffecients ^β , ^β and ^β are perfectly fit with sign of expectation However, ^β , ^β are different from the sign of expectation Firstly, to explan to the expectation of inflation rate variable (CPI), we would like to give the Mundell-Tobin Effect Nobel Prize-winning economist Robelt Mundell noted that moderate inflation will cause savings depositors to replace loans for some held money as a means to finance future spending Such substitution may cause the real market clearing interest rate to decrease Lower real interest rates may result in more borrowing for financial investments Similarly, Nobel laureate James Tobin noted that such inflation would be able to make businesses invest in alternative physical capital (factories, equipment, warehouses) for the balance of money in the portfolio their private property The alternative means that the option is to make investments with a lower rate of return than actual return (This rate of return is lower because investments with higher rates of return have been made before.) For the period 2013-2018, the Vietnamese economy has had a lot of prosperity compared to the time Last period, entering a period of stability and growth GDP recorded a sustained growth with a scale increasing by 3.3 times; interest rates fluctuate steadily, under control; the establishment of enterprises increased continuously and reached a record (in 2016, 110 thousand newly registered enterprises); furthermore is the record growth of FDI disbursement (US $ 15.8 billion in 2016); That stable economic development has boosted the development of the stock market The typical achievement is that the VN-Index has remained stable, almost unchanged showing the stability in production 13 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com and business activities of Vietnamese enterprises or the capitalization / GDP ratio is constantly increasing broadening market capitalization;… Such great attraction may have attracted people to invest more in assets such as stocks; while businesses will continue to invest in asset portfolios although lower profit rate is also due to the fact that the inflation rate in Vietnam is still rising, leading to lower real interest rates Businesses even invest more in the hope that stock prices will increase in the future when Vietnam's economy is developing stably As for the M2 money supply, perhaps the biggest cause comes from the increase in money supply in the short term Increasing money supply M2 will cause inflation to rise quickly Especially in the period 2013-2015, after the difficult period of the economy, the government relaxed monetary policy to encourage businesses to expand production and business activities On the other hand, in the period of 2016 2018, Vietnam's inflation rate was also quite high As long as any government increases the money supply, it will put the economy in danger, reducing the attractiveness of businesses and their stocks 2.2 Test the statistical significance of the regression coefficients  P-value ( ^β ¿ = 0.001 < 0.01 so ^β has statistically significant = 1% with reliability coefficient = 99%  P-value ( ^β ¿ = 0.001 < 0.02 so ^β has statistically significant = 1% with reliability coefficient = 99%  P-value ( ^β ¿ = 0.154 > 0.10 so ^β is not statistically significant  The money supply M2 variable is not statistically significant but it cannot be removed from the model because the money supply theory also explains the indirect stock price fluctuation through interest rates when implement monetary policy to expand and narrow  P-value ( ^β ¿ = 0.000 < 0.01 so ^β has statistically significant = 1% with reliability coefficient = 99%  P-value ( ^β ¿ = 0.012 < 0.05 so ^β has statistically significant = 1% with reliability coefficient = 99% 2.3 Source Testing the suitability of the model SS df MS Model Residual 592480.057 134091.035 54 118496.011 2483.16732 Total 726571.092 59 12314.7643 Number of obs F( 5, 54) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE = = = = = = 60 47.72 0.0000 0.8154 0.7984 49.831 14 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com Sum of squares of deviations: Between the values of the dependent variables and their average: ESS = 592480.057 Between the observed values and the calculated values are: RSS = 134091.035 Between the actual observed values and their average values are: TSS = 726571.092 Consider the hypothesis: We have: Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000 is much smaller than α= 0.01  Rejected H0 accepts H1  The coefficient has statistical significance at 1% with 95% confidence coefficient  Therefore the model is statistically consistent with the 1% significance level  Determination coefficient: R ^ = 0.8154 means that the independent variables in the model explain 81.54% of the change in the value of the dependent variable, the rest due to other factors  The coefficient = 0.7984 is used to overcome the disadvantage of using many independent variables in the model to reduce the degrees of freedom, along with the statistical significance to consider whether to give more Whether a variable is in the model or not  Root MSE = 49,831 This is the standard deviation of the residuals in the model or the standard deviation of the model 2.4 Interpret the results From the regression results table, we see:  ^β 1=13.045 :when the inflation rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN−Index price index increases (decreases) by 13,045% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged  ^β 2=−23.073 :When the interest rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN−Index decreases (increases) by 23,074% with other factors remain unchanged  ^β 3=−2.686 :When the money supply increases (decreases) by 1%, the VNIndex decreases (increases) by 2,686% with other factors remain unchanged  ^β =0.155: • When the exchange rate increases (decreases) by 1%, the VNIndex increases (decreases) by 0.155% in the condition that other factors remain unchanged 15 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com  ^β 5=5.293 : • When the industrial production value increases (decreases) by 1%, the VN-Index increases (decreases) by 5,293% on the condition that other factors remain unchanged Policy recommendations The research results show that stock price indices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, money supply, exchange rates, interest rates and value of industrial output On this basis, we propose a number of policies to increase the positive impact and limit the negative impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock price indexes on HOSE 4.1 For the Government In the coming time, in order for the stock market to operate in a healthy, stable and firm manner, truly becoming a medium and long-term capital channel for the economy, we must take into consideration the following key solutions: Firstly, ensuring macroeconomic stability In fact, Vietnam's stock market shows that the fluctuations in stock prices have a lot of reasons from macroeconomic stability Therefore, the Government should pay attention to improving the quality of economic growth, ensuring sustainable development; Operating monetary policy flexibly and effectively, ensuring the stability of the monetary market, exchange rates in close coordination with fiscal policies; Continuing to accelerate the equitization of state enterprises, divestment of non-core investment according to the approved plan Secondly, continuing restructuring the stock market In order to further improve the role of the stock market, strive to make this market become a leading medium and long-term capital channel by 2020, continue to promote restructuring the stock market, the Ministry of Finance should focus on completing the system of legal documents; Continuing to restructure goods base in the direction of improving quality; Completing the trading system, associating equitization with transactions on the organized market; Implementing solutions to upgrade Vietnam stock market Thirdly, it is necessary to raise the standards listed on the stock exchange to improve the quality of listed goods, to avoid affecting the overall reputation of the market 4.2 For the State Bank Inflation is sensitive to exchange rates, so the State Bank needs to be careful about each dumping decision; especially in the context of high inflation, the State Bank should not devalue Exchange rates are not the cause of the trade deficit, so dumping is not a necessary measure during this period The dollarization of Vietnam 16 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com is strongly influenced by exchange rate factors, so maintaining a stable exchange rate will contribute to reducing dollarization In order to maintain a stable exchange rate, this study recommended three groups of recommended solutions for the State Bank, including the following: Selection of mechanisms and instruments to manage exchange rate policies; Preventing dollarization of the economy; Managing exchange rate policy to increase people's confidence in VND Because the macroeconomic variables all affect the fluctuations of the exchange rate and vice versa, the policies of the State Bank should implement in a synchronized, consistent and flexible manner to ensure the initial objectives 4.3 For Businesses The extent of the impact of inflation on the profits of large/small companies depends on two factors The first is the ability to limit the price increase from the supplier The second is the ability to price higher products that customers still accept Therefore, the company needs to make sure that input costs increase more slowly than the price increase Meanwhile, exchange rates and gold prices always fluctuate flexibly according to the market, so in order to survive and develop well, businesses need to properly analyze, forecast, identify and offer flexible solutions to respond to market changes CONCLUSION This study was conducted to examine the existence of relationships among macroeconomic variables: money supply, interest rates, inflation rates, value of industrial output, exchange rates and VN- Index in Vietnam from 2013 to 2017 Due to limited data, in this study, we only included factors in the regression model to estimate their influence on the price of stocks By analyzing some theoretical and practical issues using econometric models, the group's thesis reaffirms the influence of macroeconomic factors on the economy in general and the Securities market in particular Minimizing the negative effects from the constant fluctuations of stock prices is a macroeconomic issue, especially for a developing economy like our country In the future, the economy will increasingly get more and more complex, containing unpredictable things making the stock market become more exciting than ever Based on the research and analysis of the macroeconomic factors affecting the stock price on the HOSE stock exchange in Vietnam through the economic 17 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com knowledge learned at the school combined with the research using econometric models, we want to contribute to deepen a part of economic knowledge, help readers understand more about some economic issues In addition, the group also proposed a number of solutions proposed by the State to see the practicality of the theory, thereby helping readers to be more aware of economic problems in real life 18 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com DATA   T1 - 2013 T2 - 2013 T3 - 2013 T4 - 2013 T5 - 2013 T6 - 2013 T7 - 2013 T8 - 2013 T9 - 2013 T10 -2013 T11 - 2013 T12 - 2013 T1 - 2014 T2 - 2014 T3 - 2014 T4 - 2014 T5 - 2014 T6 - 2014 T7 - 2014 T8 - 2014 T9 - 2014 T10 - 2014 T11 - 2014 T12 - 2014 T1 - 2015 T2 - 2015 T3 - 2015 T4 - 2015 T5 - 2015 T6 - 2015 T7 - 2015 T8 - 2015 T9 - 2015 T10 - 2015 T11 - 2015 T12 - 2015 T1 - 2016 T2 - 2016 T3 - 2016 T4 - 2016 CPI 7.07 7.02 6.64 6.61 6.36 6.69 7.29 7.5 6.3 5.92 5.78 6.04 5.45 4.65 4.39 4.45 4.72 4.98 4.94 4.31 3.62 3.23 2.6 1.84 0.94 0.34 0.93 0.99 0.95 0.9 0.61 0 0.34 0.6 0.8 1.27 1.69 1.89 IR 6.13 6.3 5.32 4.9 2.76 3.91 5.98 5.45 4.64 4.54 4.94 5.39 3.83 3.13 3.19 3.68 3.48 3.35 3.15 3.11 2.97 3.54 4.38 4.68 4.39 4.64 3.75 4.08 3.94 4.3 4.39 3.82 3.68 4.85 4.91 4.42 4.46 4.74 M2 40.28 41.93 30.77 21.4 20.08 20.17 19.24 19.82 19.85 20.2 19.84 18.85 19.33 18.2 17.76 18.07 18.19 18.49 18.11 18.24 18.64 18.14 17.92 17.69 15.53 18.6 17.15 16.72 16.67 16.66 17.09 17.06 17.51 17.08 16.81 16.23 17.64 15.65 18.25 18.73 EX 20828 20828 20828 20828 20828 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21036 21246 21246 21246 21246 21246 21246 21246 21458 21458 21458 21458 21673 21673 21673 21890 21890 21890 21890 21890 21881 21914 21857 21842 IO 21.1 6.8 5.6 5.8 6.7 6.5 4.4 5.6 5.9 5.7 15.2 4.7 5.9 6.1 7.5 6.7 8.6 7.9 11.1 9.6 2.8 9.1 9.5 7.5 11.1 11.3 10.1 8.8 8.9 5.9 7.9 6.2 7.9 VN-Index 479.79 474.56 491.04 474 518.39 481.13 491.85 472.7 492.63 497.41 507.78 504.63 556.52 586.48 591.57 578 562.02 578.13 596.07 636.65 598.8 600.84 566.58 545.63 576.07 592.57 551.13 562.4 569.56 593.05 621.06 564.75 562.64 607.37 573.2 579.03 545.25 559.37 561.22 598.37 19 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com T5 - 2016 T6 - 2016 T7 - 2016 T8 - 2016 T9 - 2016 T10 - 2016 T11 - 2016 T12 - 2016 T1 - 2017 T2 - 2017 T3 - 2017 T4 - 2017 T5 - 2017 T6 - 2017 T7 - 2017 T8 - 2017 T9 - 2017 T10 - 2017 T11 - 2017 T12 - 2017 2.28 2.4 2.39 2.57 3.34 4.09 4.52 4.74 5.22 5.02 4.65 4.3 3.19 2.54 2.52 3.35 3.4 2.98 2.62 2.6 3.54 2.69 2.26 2.04 1.54 1.51 2.46 4.41 5.23 4.34 4.86 4.33 3.49 2.33 1.68 1.63 1.68 1.99 2.56 19.55 20.02 20.05 19.5 19.91 19.93 20 18.38 19.66 18.14 17.65 17.02 16.17 15.54 16.03 16.16 15.34 15.12 15.66 13.54 21939 21873 21862 21921 21949 22039 22118 22159 22202 22232 22276 22350 22396 22431 22432 22443 22470 22471 22433 22452 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.6 7 8.3 0.7 15.2 5.5 7.4 7.2 8.6 8.1 8.4 13.2 17 17.2 11.2 618.44 632.26 652.23 674.63 685.73 675.8 665.07 664.87 697.28 710.79 722.31 717.73 737.82 776.47 783.55 782.76 804.42 837.28 949.93 984.24 20 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com REFERENCES Huỳnh Thị Cẩm Hà, Lê Thị Lanh, Lê Thị Hồng Minh, Hoàng Thị Phương Anh, 2014, Test macroeconomic factors affecting stock market, Science An Giang University magazine, Part (2), Trang 70 - 78, 18/03/2018, http://dspace.agu.edu.vn/bitstream/AGU_Library/2526/1/Bai-11-Huynh-ThiCam-Ha-Le-Thi-Lanh-Le-Thi-Hong-Minh-Hoang-Thi-Phuong-Anh.pdf Đặng Hương, 2017, Growth based on monetary finance: The way is not easy, 18/03/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/thoi-su/tang-truong-dua-vao-tai-chinh-tien-tecon-duong-khong-de-di-20170716112236789.htm Trương Đông Lộc, 2014, Factors effect on changing of tock: Proofs from Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange https://vi.scribd.com/document/360919923/10-KTTRUONG-DONG-LOC-72-78-pdf Maritime Securities, 2017, TTCK Việt Nam : Increase scale, Improve quality http://static1.v/ietstock.vn/edocs/5523/Baocaochienluoc_2017_MSI.pdf PGS.TS Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt, ThS Phạm Dương Phương Thảo, 2013, Analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock, http://www.vjol.info/index.php/kttc/article/viewFile/12263/11193 Dương Ngọc Mai Phương, Vũ Thị Phương Anh Đỗ Thị Trúc Đào & Nguyễn Hữu Tuấn, 2015, The impact of monetary policy on the stock market https://www.uef.edu.vn/newsimg/tap-chi-uef/2015-11-12-25/1.pdf Thân Thị Thu Thủy, Võ Thị Thùy Dương, 2015, The impact of macroeconomic factors on stock price indices of HOSE, https://www.uef.edu.vn/newsimg/tapchi-uef/2015-09-10-24/9.pdf 21 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT The individual assessment is based on each member’s attitude towards the group work Name Do Hong Khanh Nguyen Thu Hang Nguyen Van Hoang Luan Thi My Hang Do Hong Khanh - 10 10 10 Nguyen Thu Hang 10 - 10 10 Nguyen Van Hoang 10 10 - 10 Luan Thi My Hang 10 10 10 - Grade 10 10 10 10 22 LUAN VAN CHAT LUONG download : add luanvanchat@agmail.com ... , our team decided to explore the topic: ? ?FACTORS AFFECT STOCK PRICES AT HOSE 2013 – 2017? ??, in order to analyze macro factors affecting the VN-Index stock index, thereby suggesting ideas for... add luanvanchat@agmail.com DATA   T1 - 2013 T2 - 2013 T3 - 2013 T4 - 2013 T5 - 2013 T6 - 2013 T7 - 2013 T8 - 2013 T9 - 2013 T10 -2013 T11 - 2013 T12 - 2013 T1 - 2014 T2 - 2014 T3 - 2014 T4 -... positive correlation between stock prices and industrial production value and money supply and a negatively correlation between stock prices and inflation, interest rates and exchange rates Based