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I BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY oOo HÀ NGUYỄN THANH LONG INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR FINANCE BANKING CODE 5234020.
I MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY -oOo - HÀ NGUYỄN THANH LONG INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE & BANKING CODE: 52340201 HO CHI MINH CITY, 2022 II I MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY -oOo HÀ NGUYỄN THANH LONG INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE GRADUATION THESIS MAJOR: FINANCE & BANKING CODE: 52340201 SCIENCE INSTRUCTOR Ph.D TRAN TRONG HUY HO CHI MINH CITY, 2022 I ABSTRACT The thesis "INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES' BUSINESS PERFORMANCE" was conducted with the goal of investigating capital structure and its impact on the business performance of oil and gas trading enterprises listed on the Vietnam stock exchange between 2015 and 2021 This is the time when the economy is showing indications of recovery from the 2014 oil crisis, as well as the beginning of a new crisis created by Covid-19 The author gathered balance sheet data from the financial statements of oil and gas trading companies listed on the Vietnamese stock exchange for the study From 2015 to 2021, the author collected data on 31 publicly traded companies For testing, methods of analysis, comparison, and synthesis, as well as descriptive analysis and regression analysis methods such as Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, and FGLS, are utilized The model is developed with enterprise performance variables including such ROA and ROE, as well as independent variables like business size (SIZE), total debt to total assets (TDTA), growth opportunities (GROW), liquidity (LIQ), and corporate income tax (TAX) The regression results demonstrate that total debt to total assets has a negative impact on a company's business performance as well as liquidity Furthermore, company size, expansion opportunities, and corporate income tax all have a favorable impact on the profitability of oil and gas trading companies Following that, business administrators could use research findings to create capital structure decisions that are consistent with the development goals of oil and gas firms II DECLARATION This thesis is the author‟s own research, the research results are truthful, in which there is no previously published content or the content made by others except the full citations cited in the thesis The author Ha Nguyen Thanh Long III ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to express my sincere appreciation and express my deep gratitude to the teachers of Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City for their enthusiastic teaching, as well as consolidating the solid foundation knowledge, helping me successfully complete the university curriculum In particularly, I would like to express my sincere thanks to Ph.D Tran Trong Huy for giving me the detailed guidance and wholehearted assistance in completing the graduation thesis Without his thoughtful support, it would be challenging for me to complete this thesis fully Due to my limited practical experience, the content of the graduation thesis can not avoid some shortcomings, I am looking forward to receiving further advices from teachers to improve my flaws I believe with all beneficial guidances would help me develop myself well in the future I sincerely thank you! IV TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT I DECLARATION .II ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF ACRONYMS VIII LIST OF TABLES AND IMAGES IX CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 The urgency of the subject 1.2 Research objectives 1.2.1 General objectives .2 1.2.2 Specific objectives 1.3 Research question 1.4 Subject and scope 1.4.1 The research object 1.4.2 Scope of the study .3 1.5 Methodology 1.6 Significance of the research 1.7 Research contents CHAPTER 2: THEOROTICAL BASIS AND RELATED RESEARCHES 2.1 Overview of the capital structure of the enterprises .6 2.1.1 Definitions of capital structure 2.1.2 Indicators affect capital structure .6 2.2 Overview of the business performance of the enterprise V 2.2.1 Theory of business performance 2.2.2 Factors affecting business performance .8 2.2.2.1 Group of subjective factors .8 2.2.2.2 Group of subjective factors 10 2.2.3 Indicators to evaluate the business performance of enterprises 11 2.3 The relationship between capital structure and business performance of enterprises 12 2.3.1 Durand's Classical Theory .12 2.3.2 Capital Structure Theories of Modigliani and Miller (M&M) .13 2.3.3 Trade-off theory of Capital structure .14 2.3.4 Asymmetric information theory .14 2.3.5 Agency theory 15 2.3.6 The theory of market timing 16 2.4 Related studies 17 2.5.1 Related studies in the world .17 2.5.2 Related studies in Vietnam 19 CHAPTER 3: MODEL AND METHODS OF RESEARCH 25 3.1 Research data 25 3.2 Research process 25 3.3 Research method 27 3.3.1 Panel data regression 27 3.3.2 Pooled OLS model 27 3.3.3 Fixed Effect Model 27 3.3.4 Random Effect Model 27 3.3.5 Testing methods to choose regression model 28 3.4 Research model and variables description 29 3.4.1 Research model 29 VI 3.4.2 Dependent variables 30 3.4.3 Independent variables 31 3.4.4 Data process .33 CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL RESULTS .35 4.1 Descriptive statistics 35 4.2 Correlation matrix between variables .36 4.3 Regression results of ROA 38 4.3.1 Model regression results 38 4.3.2 Check the selection of the appropriate model 40 4.3.3 Test the model's hypotheses .41 4.3.4 Regression model after defect correction .41 4.4 Regression results of ROE 42 4.4.1 Model regression results 42 4.4.2 Check the selection of the appropriate model 44 4.4.3 Test the model's hypotheses .45 4.4.4 Regression model after defect correction .45 4.5 Analysis of research results on factors affecting business performance 46 4.5.1 Total debt to total assets 46 4.5.2 Size 47 4.5.3 Liquidity 47 4.5.4 Tangible assets 48 4.5.5 Growth opportunity 48 4.5.6 Corporate income tax .49 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 51 5.1 Conclusions 51 5.2 Recommendations 52 5.2.1 Maintain a reasonable ratio of debt to available capital 52 VII 5.2.2 Improve business efficiency 52 5.2.3 Recognize the stage of business growth 53 5.3 Limitations of the thesis and new approaches in the future 53 REFERENCES 55 APPENDIX 1: LIST OF 31 OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ENTERPRISES 59 APPENDIX 2: DATA USED FOR THE MODEL 60 APPENDIX 3: RESULTS OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND CORRELATION MATRIX BETWEEN VARIABLES 68 APPENDIX 4: RESULTS OF THE REGRESSION MODEL OF FACTORS AFFECTING ROA 70 APPENDIX 5: RESULTS OF REGRESSION MODEL OF FACTORS AFFECTING ROE 75 65 POV POV POV POV PPY PPY PPY PPY PPY PPY PPY PSC PSC PSC PSC PSC PSC PSC PTX PTX PTX PTX PTX PTX PTX PVG PVG PVG PVG UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M HNX HNX HNX HNX 2018 0,059 0,101 0,416 5,454 0,599 0,826 0,080 0,309 2019 0,025 0,057 0,556 5,573 0,459 0,907 0,078 -0,081 2020 0,001 0,002 0,422 5,441 0,573 0,854 0,070 -0,447 2021 0,071 0,133 0,466 5,534 0,447 1,068 0,862 0,504 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0,112 0,115 0,063 0,091 0,083 0,044 0,065 0,057 0,057 0,058 0,055 0,054 0,041 0,030 0,158 0,188 0,127 0,155 0,143 0,075 0,122 0,105 0,114 0,120 0,121 0,123 0,095 0,065 0,292 0,389 0,505 0,413 0,419 0,413 0,472 0,458 0,497 0,518 0,548 0,558 0,566 0,535 5,189 5,275 5,352 5,311 5,346 5,347 5,416 5,337 5,381 5,405 5,439 5,456 5,458 5,414 0,144 0,162 0,187 0,241 0,245 0,226 0,214 0,367 0,399 0,405 0,508 0,555 0,568 0,533 2,455 1,685 1,049 1,040 1,172 1,260 1,347 0,538 0,598 0,429 0,557 0,457 0,605 0,649 0,093 0,129 0,165 0,213 0,163 0,186 0,211 0,237 0,228 0,204 0,204 0,204 0,203 0,206 -0,253 -0,247 0,240 0,290 -0,014 -0,292 0,378 -0,134 -0,031 0,082 0,174 0,063 -0,230 0,036 2015 0,027 0,119 0,774 5,172 0,713 0,578 0,230 0,103 2016 0,028 0,134 0,794 5,238 0,667 0,549 0,231 0,115 2017 0,029 0,113 0,738 5,275 0,643 0,488 0,218 0,320 2018 0,026 0,116 0,776 5,393 0,650 0,398 0,219 0,228 2019 0,029 0,095 0,698 5,405 0,602 0,445 0,230 0,009 2020 0,023 0,068 0,658 5,345 0,695 0,336 0,215 -0,264 2021 0,047 0,114 0,585 5,284 0,685 0,414 0,205 0,318 2015 2016 2017 2018 0,018 0,000 0,009 0,008 0,060 0,002 0,033 0,030 0,694 0,708 0,729 0,720 6,120 6,117 6,163 6,162 0,187 0,350 0,297 0,277 0,745 0,620 0,734 0,772 0,202 0,146 0,000 0,085 -0,026 -0,077 0,407 0,141 66 PVG PVG PVG PVO PVO PVO PVO PVO PVO PVO SFC SFC SFC SFC SFC SFC SFC TDG TDG TDG TDG TDG TDG TDG TLP TLP TLP TLP TLP HNX HNX HNX UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE HOSE UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo 2019 2020 2021 0,000 0,000 0,008 0,000 0,001 0,029 0,625 0,690 0,730 6,108 6,191 6,265 0,288 0,220 0,165 0,869 0,975 1,038 0,197 0,000 0,507 -0,142 -0,006 0,180 2015 0,001 0,001 0,388 5,194 0,072 1,894 0,215 -0,104 2016 0,086 0,160 0,458 5,307 0,056 1,754 0,894 -0,203 2017 0,017 0,025 0,331 5,186 0,082 2,023 0,206 -0,001 2018 0,002 0,002 0,198 5,098 0,079 3,385 0,215 0,002 2019 0,004 0,005 0,216 5,107 0,064 3,282 0,848 -0,048 2020 0,012 0,014 0,128 5,067 0,061 5,454 0,000 -0,091 2021 0,002 0,002 0,252 5,129 0,042 3,003 0,000 0,541 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0,079 0,083 0,065 0,108 0,069 0,070 0,091 0,029 0,085 0,107 0,042 0,008 0,001 0,002 0,194 0,204 0,147 0,151 0,122 0,123 0,126 0,043 0,120 0,161 0,074 0,018 0,003 0,004 0,591 0,592 0,560 0,283 0,437 0,431 0,276 0,340 0,294 0,335 0,430 0,553 0,553 0,558 5,698 5,715 5,692 5,467 5,546 5,512 5,397 5,238 5,330 5,433 5,533 5,646 5,647 5,657 0,094 0,095 0,096 0,158 0,124 0,099 0,112 0,017 0,016 0,011 0,009 0,006 0,030 0,031 1,286 1,296 1,255 1,961 1,446 1,519 2,268 2,708 2,553 1,166 1,135 1,157 1,036 1,035 0,329 0,221 0,201 0,212 0,219 0,214 0,221 0,223 0,231 0,000 0,001 0,117 0,295 0,299 -0,213 -0,196 0,167 0,081 -0,371 0,015 -0,231 1,002 1,006 0,358 0,737 0,617 -0,051 0,817 2015 0,006 0,025 0,752 6,836 0,038 0,957 0,000 -0,529 2016 0,015 0,046 0,682 6,783 0,079 1,124 0,366 -0,518 2017 0,013 0,053 0,757 7,000 0,080 1,065 0,039 0,259 2018 0,013 0,051 0,741 6,989 0,080 1,035 0,171 0,731 2019 0,011 0,034 0,689 6,905 0,095 0,916 0,218 -0,092 67 TLP TLP TMC TMC TMC TMC TMC TMC TMC VMG VMG VMG VMG VMG VMG VMG M UPCo M UPCo M HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX HNX UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M UPCo M 2020 0,004 0,013 0,669 6,877 0,095 0,925 0,273 -0,186 2021 0,014 0,040 0,661 6,899 0,154 0,951 0,379 0,116 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0,090 0,063 0,056 0,099 0,052 0,024 0,041 0,143 0,119 0,116 0,139 0,091 0,039 0,070 0,366 0,469 0,520 0,288 0,427 0,386 0,406 5,472 5,550 5,612 5,469 5,546 5,505 5,521 0,230 0,189 0,158 0,197 0,149 0,162 0,144 1,274 1,216 0,867 1,350 1,231 1,259 1,392 0,276 0,216 0,187 0,198 0,198 0,201 0,196 -0,169 -0,179 0,143 0,147 -0,080 -0,415 0,106 2015 -0,120 -0,244 0,508 4,960 0,394 0,613 0,200 0,000 2016 -0,062 -0,146 0,576 4,966 0,370 0,589 0,000 0,098 2017 0,035 0,085 0,588 5,017 0,347 0,685 0,000 0,497 2018 0,007 0,022 0,654 5,096 0,272 0,635 0,000 0,511 2019 0,005 0,017 0,693 5,109 0,239 0,803 0,000 -0,074 2020 0,001 0,005 0,718 5,082 0,232 0,545 0,000 -0,232 2021 0,001 0,005 0,749 5,101 0,187 0,538 0,000 0,037 68 APPENDIX 3: RESULTS OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND CORRELATION MATRIX BETWEEN VARIABLES Results of descriptive statistics Correlation between variables 69 VIF test 70 APPENDIX 4: RESULTS OF THE REGRESSION MODEL OF FACTORS AFFECTING ROA Results of regression model: Pooled OLS, FEM, REM Pooled OLS 71 Fixed Effect Model 72 Random Effect Model 73 The selection of the appropriate model Hausman test Wald test Wooldridge test 74 Regression results of FEM model after fixing defects 75 APPENDIX 5: RESULTS OF REGRESSION MODEL OF FACTORS AFFECTING ROE Results of regression model: Pooled OLS, FEM, REM Pooled OLS 76 Fixed Effect Model 77 Random Effect Model 78 The selection of the appropriate model Hausman test Wald test Wooldridge test 79 Regression results of FEM model after fixing defects ... to oil and gas production output of world oil and gas powers such as Russia and OPEC, as well as the world oil price crisis, which has had a significant impact on the operation of the oil and gas. .. MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING STATE BANK OF VIETNAM BANKING UNIVERSITY OF HO CHI MINH CITY -oOo HÀ NGUYỄN THANH LONG INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE. .. importance of the oil and gas industry to the Vietnamese economy, the author decided to choose: ? ?INFLUENCE OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON OIL AND GAS ENTERPRISES’ BUSINESS PERFORMANCE? ?? as my graduation thesis