Tài liệu Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly doc

ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, PLEASE REFER TO https://firesearchdisclosure.credit-suisse.com. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION ® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly Focus: the largest trade deficit in 1Q/2013 ········ 2 The trade balance recorded a deficit of ¥922.0 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, resulting in the largest-ever quarterly deficit of ¥2.75 trillion (2.3% of GDP) in the January-March quarter. Export volume rose +1.8% mom, recording the first recovery in three months, helped by the general machinery and transport equipment sectors, which seem to have opted to reduce product prices. The terms of trade, meanwhile, continued to deteriorate as the yen depreciated. As the country’s external balance has deteriorated persistently, its capacity to recycle savings abroad should have shrunk further. Fixed income market update ·························· 4 Since the BOJ announced new monetary easing measures at its policy meeting on 4 April, the JGB market has been unstable with yields having risen throughout the yield curve except for the 12yr-14yr zone, and volatility remains high in all maturities. Business cycle update ·································· 7 Money and credit update ····························· 14 Policy update ············································ 16 Fiscal policy: the US and Japanese governments officially reached agreement on Japan’s participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations. Upcoming Indicators/Events ························· 17 March nationwide CPI (26th Apr): core CPI is expected to be -0.2% yoy Japan Economic Forecasts ·························· 20 JGB Yield Forecasts ··································· 20 Recent Publications Japan Economic Adviser: What matters is the balance between capex and consumption (18 April 2013) Research Analysts Hiromichi Shirakawa +81 3 4550 7117 hiromichi.shirakawa@credit-suisse.com Takashi Shiono +81 3 4550 7189 takashi.shiono@credit-suisse.com Tomohiro Miyasaka +81 3 4550 7171 tomohiro.miyasaka@credit-suisse.com 18 April 2013 Fixed Income Research http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics 18 April 2013 Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 2 Focus: Customs-cleared trade for March  The trade balance recorded a deficit of ¥922.0 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, resulting in the largest-ever quarterly deficit of ¥2.75 trillion (2.3% of GDP) in the January-March quarter.  Export volume rose +1.8% mom, recording the first recovery in three months, helped by the general machinery and transport equipment sectors, which seem to have opted for to reduce product prices.  The terms of trade, meanwhile, continued to deteriorate as import prices rose. As the country’s external balance has deteriorated, its capacity to recycle savings abroad has shrunk. Customs-cleared trade data for March continued to record a wide trade deficit of ¥922.0 billion (seasonally adjusted). While nominal imports pulled back -1.2% after a surge in February (+6.9%), nominal exports continued to grow +1.6% after +1.3% in February. Our own seasonally adjusted estimates show the export volume index turned positive at +1.8% mom in March for the first time in three months, while import volume fell -1.5% after +4.1%. On the other hand, significant deterioration in the terms of trade continued as the change in import prices (+1.1%) outpaced that of exports (-0.2%). Exhibit 1: Trade balance, billion yen Exhibit 2: Import and export volumes, mom% -1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 2011/1 2011/3 2011/5 2011/7 2011/9 2011/11 2012/1 2012/3 2012/5 2012/7 2012/9 2012/11 2013/1 2013/3 Trade balance, billion yen -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 2011/3 2011/6 2011/9 2011/12 2012/3 2012/6 2012/9 2012/12 2013/3 Export volumes (mom%) Import volumes (mom%) Source: MoF, Credit Suisse Source: MoF, Credit Suisse By item, rebounds in the volume of exports were observed for chemicals, general machinery, and transport equipment to the US and China, but exports to the EU remained weak. Meanwhile, exports of general machinery, chemical products, and electrical equipment to other parts of Asia were resilient. Import volume fell particularly sharply for mineral fuels, foods, and chemicals, which significantly increased last month. On a quarterly basis, growth in nominal imports (+9.6% qoq) outpaced growth in exports (+7.2%) in the Jan-Mar period, leading to the historically highest deficit (¥2.75 trillion, - 2.3% of GDP) in quarterly aggregate terms. In real terms, export volume remained almost unchanged (+0.9%), while import volume expanded +3.5% in the Jan-Mar period. As we discussed in Japan Economic Analysis Issue No. 37 (22 February 2013), export volume continues to lack upward momentum despite a cyclical upswing in global production activity and an improvement in price competitiveness stemming from the weaker yen. We see little prospect of the trade balance improving significantly any time soon given that (1) structural pressures such as societal aging and industrial "hollowing out" continue to drive up import volume, and (2) the yen's devaluation has a disproportionately large impact on (predominantly foreign-denominated) import prices. Hiromichi Shirakawa + 81 3 4550 7117 hiromichi.shirakawa@credit-suisse.com Takashi Shiono +81 3 4550 7189 takashi.shiono@credit-suisse.com [...]... Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, MoF, METI, MHLW, MLIT, Credit Suisse Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 17 Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly Major Economic Data 2012/07 Consumption-related indicators Real spending by all households Real spending by wage-earners Real disposable income Average propensity to consume Department store sales Super store sales Convenience store... 0.31% 0.54% 0.68% 1.64% 1.72% -2 -6 -9 -8 -9 -2 Source: Credit Suisse Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 20 GLOBAL FIXED INCOME AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Dr Neal Soss, Managing Director Chief Economist and Global Head of Economic Research +1 212 325 3335 neal.soss@credit-suisse.com Eric Miller, Managing Director Global Head of Fixed Income and Economic Research +1 212 538 6480 eric.miller.3@credit-suisse.com... principal can be eroded due to changes in redemption amounts Care is required when investing in such instruments When you purchase non-listed Japanese fixed income securities (Japanese government bonds, Japanese municipal bonds, Japanese government guaranteed bonds, Japanese corporate bonds) from CS as a seller, you will be requested to pay the purchase price only ... in this report will only be effected in compliance with applicable regulation); in Japan by Credit Suisse Securities (Japan) Limited, Financial Instruments Firm, Director-General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kinsho) No 66, a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Financial Futures Association of Japan, Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association;... Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Note: Credit spreads are calculated using the Bloomberg Fair Market Value index and JGB5Y yields Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 15 18 April 2013 Hiromichi Shirakawa +81 3 4550 7117 hiromichi.shirakawa@credit-suisse.com Takashi Shiono +81 3 4550 7189 takashi.shiono@credit-suisse.com Policy update Fiscal policy... its theme park Encouraged by strong leisure spending, these midsize amusement parks have reversed their cautious policies on capital investments and are beginning to expand their spending Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 16 18 April 2013 Upcoming Indicators/Events Hiromichi Shirakawa +81 3 4550 7117 hiromichi.shirakawa@credit-suisse.com Takashi Shiono +81 3 4550 7189 takashi.shiono@credit-suisse.com... of Construction Started (nonresidential) Exhibit 28: Average Office Vacancy Rates (%) 80 60 40 Floor area（RHS） YoY % chg （LHS） （1000㎡) 6000 (%) 16 5000 12 4000 10 3000 8 20 0 -20 -40 2000 Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 6 4 1000 -60 0 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Source: MLIT, Credit Suisse Tokyo Nagoya Osaka 14 2 0 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13... number of units for sale Source: MIAC, Department Store Assoc., Chain Store Assoc Convenience Store Assoc., Cabinet Office, MHLW, METI, MLIT, MoF, BoJ, JREI, Credit Suisse 18 April 2013 18 Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly Major Economic Data (continued) 2012/07 Contracted rate for condominiums Tokyo metropolitan area Kinki area Prices Nationwide core CPI Tokyo core CPI Domestic CGPI Raw materials Intermediate... Households (2) (%) 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 Household activity-related 20 15 (Retail) 10 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Source: Cabinet Office, Credit Suisse Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Food and beverage Services Housing 0 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Source: Cabinet Office, Credit Suisse 12 18 April... +1-212-538-7625 For the history of any relative value trade ideas suggested by the Fixed Income research department as well as fundamental recommendations provided by the Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategy Group over the previous 12 months, please view the document at http://research-andanalytics.csfb.com/docpopup.asp?ctbdocid=330703_1_en Credit Suisse clients with access to the Locus website may refer . April 2013 Fixed Income Research http://www.credit-suisse.com/researchandanalytics 18 April 2013 Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly 2 Focus: Customs-cleared. INFORMATION ® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Japan Economics/Fixed Income Weekly Focus: the largest trade deficit in 1Q/2013 ········