De nghi phfldng an thfl bai la cua uy ban Stiglitz, nhflng di xa hdn, muo'n kiem soat be thdng ngan bang, eai tao lai he tho'ng tien te the gidi, thu tieu hi mat ngan hang, tao thien dfl
Trang 1BAN VE KHUNG HOANG TOAN CAU
vA MO HINH CHU NGHIA XA HOI
FEANCOIS HOUTART
Ngdy 11 thdng 8 ndm 2009, Francois Houtart (sinh ndm 1925), Tien syXd hdi hgc, Gido sU danh dU cua Dgi hgc Cdng gido d Louvain, VUdng quoc Bi, dd den thdm vd ldm viec vdi Vien Xd hdi hgc Gido sU Francois Houtar la mdt trong nhQng hgc gid Xd hdi hgc tdn gido hdng ddu the gidi vd Id mgt trong nhQng thdnh vien tich cUc nhdt cua Dien dan Xd hdi The gidi (tUdng phdn vdi Dien ddn Kinh te The gidi) Vdi tU cdch ngUdi sdng lap vd lanh dgo mdt td chQc phi chinh phu cd ten la Trung tdm Ba Chdu CETRI (Centre Tricontinental) do dng thdnh lap ndm 1976, trong nhQng ndm gdn ddy dng dd ldm viec khdng met moi de thuc ddy dd'i thogi vd hdp tdc giQa cdc phong trao
xd hdi d cdc nUde dang phdt trien, nhdm xdy diing mgt md hinh xd hgi nhdn bdn hdn, thdn thien vdi mdi trUdng hdn, vd cd dinh hUdng xd hdi chu nghla hdn Vdi uy tin khoa hgc cua minh trong linh vUc phdt trien xd hgi, dng dd dugc Tdng Thu ky Lien Hdp Qud'c mdi phdt bieu vi todn cdu hoa tU bdn trong bdi cdnh khung hoang tdi chinh todn cdu tgi tru sdLien Hdp Quoc dNew York vdo ky hgp thdng 10 ndm 2008
Trong lan thdm vd ldm viec vdi Vien Xd hgi hgc ngdy 11 thdng 8 ndm
2009, dng dd co budi thdo ludn vdi cdc chuyen gia cua Vien Xd hgi hgc ve 3 chu di: khung hoang todn cdu, chu nghla tU do mdi, vd mo hinh Chu nghla xd hdi Dudi ddy ehung tdi xin tom lUdc y tudng chinh cua dng ve nhQng van di ndy de bgn dge tham khdo LUu y la nhQng dieu neu dUdi ddy chi la quan diem cda dng vd khdng nhdt thiei Id quan diem cua cdc cdn bg nghien cQu cda Vien Xd hdi hgc Cdc tieu muc Id cua Ban bien tap
Ban ve k h u n g h o a n g
C i n nhin nhan khung hoang tfl dinh hfldng cd tinh he tho'ng de tim each thoat ra khdi khung hoang Ben canh nhflng bat ldi do khung hoang gay ra, CNTB con cho rang khung hoang cd nhflng ldi Ich nhat dinh Nd bgc 16 ye'u kem cua he tho'ng, giup luiae phue de tai tao he thdng mgt cich chic c h i n hdn Dieu nay hen tuc xay r a trong
Trang 2Francois Houtart 103
lich sfl Hg (nhflng ngfldi theo TBCN) eoi la binh thfldng de be tho'ng ed ed hgi lay lai nhip dieu phat trien Chu nghia Kant mdi ed each nhin mang tinb dieu cbinh eua he thdng Hg eho rang khung hoang den tfl sfl khong dieu ebinb CNTB khong cd kha nang tfl dieu ebinb nen e i n ed sfl can thiep eua nha nfldc Nd bieu bien trong nhflng thdi ky suy thoai t r i m trgng nhfl nhflng nam 1930, va luon c i n den sfl can thiep eua nha nfldc Chung toi muo'n chap nhan quan diem e i n sfl dieu chinh Khdi G20 de nghi nhflng dieu ehinh thie't ye'u tam thdi (phfldng an 1) De nghi phfldng an thfl bai
la cua uy ban Stiglitz, nhflng di xa hdn, muo'n kiem soat be thdng ngan bang, eai tao lai he tho'ng tien te the gidi, thu tieu hi mat ngan hang, tao thien dfldng tai ehinh tren cd sd tai chinh quo'e te de thfldng xuyen theo doi eae eugc khung hoang tren toan cau, muo'n dfla ra hgi ddng tfl van ve kinh te Ben eanh dd ed sfl giflp dd rat nhieu cua cac nfldc dang phat trien, hg muo'n tao ra nen tien te the gidi mdi, tranh ba quyen cua ddng do la
Dd la dieu to't lanh, nhflng ed dieu chfla bao gid hg dung den hay ndi den mgt each diy dii Tdi muo'n ndi dieu tot lanh la muo'n chfla lai cai hdng, nhflng chfla gi? Ne'u tai tao lai eai ban d i u vdi mo binh kinh te ludn pha buy, tao sfl bat eong, thi 10 nam nfla lai co khung hoang Vi the toi de nghi phfldng an thfl 3 Dieu hanh khong chfla du, ma phai tfl duy ve Chu nghia xa hgi Vi sao cd sfl lung tflng nay? Vi khung hoang khong ehi la tai ehinh Nd la van de kinh te, cd hau qua ve viee lam, vi vay nd khong ddn gian la tai ehinh Nd luon ket hdp vdi nhflng khung hoang khae nhfl khiing hoang thfle pham, nang Ifldng, khi hau, v.v tat ca deu bat d i u vdi khung hoang xa hgi Trong boi eanh dd, ta ed the ndi ve khung hoang ve nen van minb, khong phai la khung hoang tai chinh thong thfldng eua che do TBCN Vi the ein phan tich va di xa hdn trong tfl duy
Cuge khung hoing tai chi'nh ngay nay g i n lien vdi each ma be tho'ng kinh te dfldc hinh thanh, mgt thfl tai ehinh bda, d dd kinh te tfl ban tai cbinh n i m quyen thdng tri tren tfl ban san xuat Dfldng nhfl eugc khung hoang tai ehinh hien nay ehi la khia canh d i u tien eua khung hoang, g i n vdi each ngfldi ta tai trd cho nen kinh te, gan vdi truyen thong trd thanh mgt bg phan thdng tri the gidi, n h i t la d cae nfldc thuge The gidi thfl 3 la nhflng nfldc hi tae dgng manh, nhfl My La tinh Nd tac dgng khong chi ddi so'ng ma ea eae mat khae nfla Dd la eac nfldc ed nhieu ngfldi di cfl, thfldng giii ve nha tien, nen khung hoang la khung hoang ve kinh te Thdi hien dai ed khung hoang
ve lUdng thUe, ro nhat la 2007 - 2008 Rdi khung hoang ve e i u true g i n vdi sfl pha huy nen nong nghiep, nong dan Khung hoang kinh te, khung hoang thfle pham khong phai g i n vdi thieu hut san xuat, ma ed tinh chat boi canh do d i u tfl Khi tfl ban tai chinh tham gia manh me vao thi trfldng nd se ebi phoi nen san xuat de phue
vu cho ldi Ich eiia cic tap doan tai ehinh ehfl khong phai de phue vu ngfldi tieu dung Gia ngo, lua my, dau tfldng, nang Ifldng sinh hge ethanon s i n xua't tfl mia va nhieu
Trang 3nong san k h i c tang cao khong ngflng trong thdi gian g i n day, tao r a k h u n g hoang ve lUdng thUe NhU vay khiing hoang nay g i n vdi khung hoang tai ehinh do tU ban tai cbinh tim ndi d i u tU mdi Neu khung hoang tai ehinh la logic eua CNTB thi khung hoang lUdng thUe eung la logic eua CNTB do nan d i u ed H a u qua xa hgi eua nd la tren dUdi 50 trieu ngfldi tren the gidi ludn sd'ng d dUdi ngUdng ddi ngheo do sU nang gia dot bien Mgt l i n nUa trong logic eua CNTB ngUdi ta eo' tinh Id di yeu to' thiet hai
ve xa hgi eua eon tinh thu nhap hay mflc tang trfldng ma chi dfla tren mgt ye'u to' thi trfldng Khia eanh thfl hai eua khung hoang thfle pham la k h u n g hoang eau true, la sfl pha buy nen kinh te nong dan de tao ra nen san xuat TBCN dge canh, gay 6 nhiem dat dai, moi trfldng va nfldc, xua dudi hang trieu nong dan r a khdi da't cua hg,
va bang each do luon tai tao khung hoang
Khung hoing nang Ifldng cd cung xu hfldng Trong 50 n a m tdi day loai ngfldi se thay ddi ngudn nang Ifldng Chflng ta ehi edn khoang 45 n a m sfl dung d i u Ifla, 60 nam dung khi do't tfl nhien, khoang 200 nam dung than, va ne'u dung nang Ifldng nguyen tfl thi ta ebi cdn 1,5 nam nfla thoi Ta dang d t a n eung cua nen van minh Van de la tiet kiem va dieu tiet bdt viee sfl dung nang lUdng CNTB da dung nang lUdng phi ly va khong ed each nao ban ehe viec dung nang Ifldng Hg lai doi hdi dau tfl cho nang Ifldng mdi, nhflng tfl ban tai ehinh luon kim h a m d i u tU nhU vay Chi con mgt xu hUdng la dung nang lUdng sinh hgc va tim giai p h i p eho va'n de khi hau Neu nang lUdng sinh hge mudn ddng gdp 25-30% nang lUdng the gidi thi phai danh
100 trieu ha rUng, se phai pha buy cae khu rflng, p h i buy da dang sinh hgc, md rgng nen nong nghiep dge eanh Trong 20 nam tdi phai dudi chflng 60 trieu dan ra khdi da't cua hg, dieu se tao ra khung hoang ve di cfl, dieu khong mang tinh hdp ly theo quan diem XHCN nbUng lai eo ldi vdi quan diem TBCN vi no mang lai ldi nhuan, no khong biet den yeu t d b e n ngoai s i n xuat la sinh thai va xa hgi
Cudi cung la khung hoang sinh thai Khi C 0 2 trong khi quyen tfl 1970 den nay luon cd sfl tang trfldng Khi ga va hieu flng nha kinh, giao thong, n h a d, va ca nong nghiep eung tham gia lam eho Ifldng khi C02 trong khi quyen gia tang Nong nghiep ddng gop eho hien tfldng nha ki'nh hdn giao thong Ngfldi ta ngay cang san xuat ra nhieu C02, va ngfldi ta dang p h i buy cic md than Ndi hap t h u khi C 0 2 la rflng va dai dfldng Ta da thay hau qua eua pha rflng nhfl neu tren Nfldc bien thi ngay cang ndng len, ma't d i n kha nang h i p thu khi C02, ke't qua la s i n x u i t ngay cang manh, tang trfldng ndng, thi lai cang n h i i u khi C02 Cac bao cao khoa hgc ngay cang eho
t h i y tinh hinh tdi te Ne'u nhiet do tang them 2 do thi 20% dien tieh tren the' gidi se bien mat, nd se pha buy da dang sinh hge, nhflng te hdn la pha buy xa hgi De'n 2020
n i u khong lam gi se ed khoang 20 - 200 trieu ngfldi phai di efl vi khong so'ng dflde b
ndi hg v i n sdng, dae biet d khu vflc Trung A, dao, t h a n h phd Idn g i n biin Nhfl vay ta dang dflng trfldc khung hoang khi hau nghiem trgng Sfl co tinh Id di ye'u td ben
Trang 4Francois Houtart 105
ngoai ciia san xuat va logic cua CNTB muo'n dinh nghia sfl tang trfldng ma khong tinh de'n yeu to' ben ngoai ed the dem lai hau qua khdn Ifldng Cae nfldc khae nhau cd dong gdp khae nhau vao viec gia tang Ifldng khi C02 trdng khi quyen Ude tinb My
va Chau Au lam nay sinh khi C02 nhieu n h i t , va hien nay eae nfldc dang phat trien nong nhfl Trung Quo'e eung dang ddng gdp Ifldng khi C02 ngay cang gia tang \ ^ the
My va Chau Au khong the la bai hgc eho nfldc khae Nhflng ehung ta chi ed mgt hanh tinh de sdng Hy vgng kha nang tai ket eau moi trfldng tfl nhien tfl 2008 da bi can kiet Cae giai phap flng phd mang tinh toan e i u da khong dflde mgt so' nfldc thong qua du cae phong trao xa hgi keu ggi dieu nay xay ra lien tue Mdi nam khung hoang sinh thai lai den g i n hdn Ta dang tren t i u Titanic, ai cung gap nguy hiem ngay ca ngfldi ngdi hang ghe d i u
Ve chu nghia tii do mdi [
Phai tfl do mdi muo'n tfl do hda nen kinh te dan den lam tang nhiet do vi khdng tinh de'n yeu to' ben ngoai s i n xuat Viec tang mflc nfldc bien lam giam d i n eac tang bang, gay anh hfldng trflc tiep den eac eon song Idn nhfl d Hymalaya hay rflng d My
La tinh, anh hfldng de'n hang trieu ngfldi Anh hfldng cua logic kinh te cua CNTB rat Idn Nd ebi de cao mgt gia tri la ldi nhuan trong khi bd qua mgi ye'u to' ben ngoai san xuit Tai nguyen va ngudn Ifle tren the gidi khong dflde chia se cdng bang 80% ngudn Ifle chi do 20% dan n i m gifl Day la dae trflng eua CNTB San xuat ra cua eai
va dieh vu ngay cang Idn nhflng chi danh cho 20% dan, eho mgt nhdm ngfldi ed it sfle mua Ong Stiglitz luon ndi phai sfla chfla lai bg may tai chinh de khdi dgng lai sfl tang trfldng, phat trien va thinh vfldng, nhflng la sfl tang trfldng nao, phat trien nao, thinh vfldng nad? Tdi dge trong mgt tap ehi mgt loat bai viet ve Viet Nam trong tfldng lai Toi thay hg chi ban thong qua GDP, khong ndi gi ve tai hga moi trfldng Toi khong cho la d Viet Nam khong ed nghien cflu ve moi trfldng, ma la trong tfl duy cac nha kinh te nd loai trfl eac linh vflc khae Ngfldi ta ndi Viet Nam phai trd thanh nfldc cong nghiep vao nam 2020 Vfla qua tdi ed d Dai Loan, toi di 200 km tfl Dai Bae den tinh ben eanh, ehi toan thay nhfl thanh phd, chi edn mgt vai khoang ddng, mgt khong gian hoan toan 6 nhiim Vay ta ed dinh lay Dai Loan lam hinh m i u phat trien cbo Viet Nam khong? Dd la mo hinh phat trien, dd la van de Idn ma ta dang phai ddi
dign
Chu nghia tfl do mdi dfldc nhieu ngfldi xem nhfl mgt cd hgi eho Chau A vi sfl tang trfldng dung la tuyet vdi Cai gi xay ra d Trung Qude? Theo Thfl trfldng bg Moi trfldng Trung Quo'e, 25 nam qua sfl phat trien Trung Qude bi triet tieu bdi 6 nhiim, vdi 70 trieu ngfldi udng nfldc ban, mdi nam cd 70 nghin ngfldi chet vi 6 nhiim Do cd phai mo hinh cho Viet Nam khong? (3 eae nfldc XHCN eu cung vay Do cung chi la mgt thfl ehu nghia tfl do mdi 6 eae nfldc A Rap, trfl Irae va Afganishtan, hg coi ehu nghia tfl do mdi nhfl sfl xam Ifldc ve van boa Chau Phi hi tae dgng nhieu nhat cua
Trang 5ehu nghia tfl do mdi Chau Au la b i quyen cua CNTB, ngay ca dang xa hgi hay cong
doan, khong thay gi khae ngoai kinh te thi trfldng Chi cd My La tinh la thay dfldng
ra khdi logic nay, chi cd Viet Nam va Trung Quo'e cdn quan niem ve CNXH, nhflng
cung dang hi anh hfldng
Chu nghia tfl do mdi dfldc vi nhfl sfl xam Iflde Vdi mflc t a n g trfldng giam ty le vdi
sfl phat trien quo'e gia, ddng thdi la sfl ap dat dge tai quan sfl, nhfl Pinoche, b i n g viec
du nhap d at CNTB tfl ben ngoai nhflng khong p h a t trien dfldc chu nghia dan tgc,
dflde Cdi nhfl sfl xam Iflde ve kinh te Vi the eae pheng trao xa hgi nay sinh d Nam
My, phong trao eua thd dan va nhan dan deu eho'ng lai chu nghia tfl do mdi Hg dau
tranh cho sfl tien bg xa hgi, sfl qude hflu hda eac eong ty da qud'c gia, cae dfl an xa hgi
ma trfldc day luon nam trong khuon khd eua nen kinh te ma da sd la cae nha tfl ban
chiem gifl
C h u n g h i a x a h o i v a tifoTng l a i c u a l o a i ngvCbi
Toi ket luan b i n g mgt suy tfl ve Ifla chgn Neu ta dang trong khung hoang ve
van minb, lieu XHCN cd eho ta mgt eon dfldng khong khi tinh den lich sfl, van dgng
eua ly luan de di den thfle tien? Toi eho r i n g ta ed the noi ve khai niem mo hinh
trong khuon khd kinh nghiem de xay dflng ly thuyet ddi ehgi vdi cac eugc khung
hoang khae nhau Cd 4 dinh hfldng Idn tfldng dfldng vdi 4 van de Idn lien quan den sfl
tdn tai loai ngfldi
• Moi quan he vdi tfl nhien
• Cach s i n xua't * *
• Cach song
• Td chfle ebinb tri xa hgi, va each nhin the' gidi b i n g dao dflc va van hda
Theo 4 ddi bdi nay ta co the' suy nghi the'nao v l tfldng lai eua sfl kie'n tao CNXH?
Sfl dung b i n vflng va hdp ly cae ngudn Ifle tfl nhien la xu hfldng mdi Khong khai
thae tu nhien nhU CNTB ma ton trgng tU nhien Quan d i i m eho r i n g tU nhien la vo
tan trong ddng tU tudng vd tie'n bg xa hgi trong the' ky vfla rdi la khong c h i p nhan
dUdc Trong tUdng lai ta khdng c h i p nhan sU thinh vUdng cd tinh ca n h a n khi s i '
d^ng eae nguon lUc ed ban nhU nUde, khong dUde phep lam tang nhiet do trai da't va
khi quyen CNXH nhu da tdn tai da khdng ehu y de'n khia canh nay,' nhU ta tha'y sfl
pha buy moi trUdng d Lien X6 trUde day Trong tU duy eua Mae da ed y tudng vd va'n
de nay^Mae cho rang djc trUng eua CNTB la p h i hoai 2 ngudn lUe chinh la tU nhien
va lao dgng, va ta ed the hinh dung sU pha hoai nay di de'n dau
^ ThU hai, trong dinh hudng mdi Iiy lai sU Uu tien gia tri sfl dung dd san x u i t ra
eua cai eho eon ngUdi hdn la gia tri trao ddi CNTB ehi ehfl y de'n gia tri trao ddi ta't
Trang 6Francois Houtart 107
ca deu trd thanh hang hda, ca dieh vu cong, de tieh tu tfl ban ma thdi Nhan manh
vao gia tri sd dung cd nghia la dfla ra mgt dinh nghia khae ve kinh te CNXH yeu cau
nen kinh te khong p h i i la tao ra gia tri gia tang eho ldi leh ca nhan, ma la tao ra ed
sd nen tang cho cuge so'ng vat chit, van hda va tinh t h i n tren k h i p banh tinh Khong the de cao duy n h i t xua't khau, dieu da dem lai hau qua tan pha moi trfldng, khien viec sii dung nong nghiep khong phai nhfl ngudn so'ng ma de x u i t khau Xua't khau khong phai muc dich tfl than, ma de chdng lai tfl ban tai chinh Ngfldi ta khong hinh dung dflde phat trien ma khong di kem xuat khau Brazil xuat khau ethanon, hau qua la khoang 30 trieu ngfldi dan hi anh hfldng Nha nfldc ed nd Ifle phan phoi lai cho dan nhflng khong tao ra tae dgng tdt Rdi ngfldi ta ehi muo'n s i n x u i t dd nhanh hdng, c6 ldi cho tieh luy TBCN De tan dung cong nghe mdi nhat, ngfldi ta tieu dung nang Ifldng d mflc do khung khiep, tao ra them nhieu khi C02 ed hai
Thfl ba, ta hinh dung the nao ve CNXH? Chi cd mgt dinh hfldng cd ban la nen dan chu pho thong hda khong ehi trong ehinh tri, ma trong mgi dinh ehe, trong kinh
te, quan he nam nfl Ta can phai lam nhieu viee, nhat la tang efldng sfl tham gia cua cac chu the ggi la xa hgi eong dan Khai niem nay tuy md hd nhflng bam y eo sfl tham gia ngfldi dan d t i n g ldp t h i p , nong dan, Khong chap nhan quyen phu quyet eua 5 efldng qude Idn eho dfl hg manh tdi dau
Thfl tfl la tinh da van hda Phat trien khong cd nghia la Tay Au hda, la sfl ba quyen cua van hda Chau Au va sfl loai trfl tat ea eae nen van hda va tri thfle ban dia, nha't la tri thfle truyen tho'ng Dieu quan trgng la phai de cao t i t ca tri thfle, t i t ca van hda, ta't ca ton giao ed the ddng gdp vao xay dflng t i m nhin dao dflc eon ngfldi Co the cho r i n g 4 dinh hfldng ndi tren la khdng tfldng Toi ddng y Nhflng khong ed nd la sfl cham dflt cua hanh tinh va nhan loai Khung hoang la de ta tfl duy lai, ed the day
la tin hieu eoi khong tfldng la mue tieu ed the thfle hien dflde Toi hi vgng mgt ngay nao dd mgt tuyen ngon toan e i u ve tai san eua toan nhan loai nhfl tuyen bo' toan cau
ve quyen con ngfldi ma trong dd ed 4 yeu to' ed ban neu tren se dfldc nhan dan the gidi thong qua
Vu M a n h Ltfi tdng thuat