MEASURING IMPACT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM45479

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MEASURING IMPACT OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STOCK MARKET IN VIETNAM Nguyen Thi Nhung, Tran Thi Van Anh, Doan Duc Minh University of Economics and Business - VNU ABSTRACT In attempted to provide the first evidence about how investors’ psychology impacts on trading volume on stock market in Vietnam, this article uses data of individual stocks listed on the VN30 Index with 21.329 observations during years from January 23, 2017 to December 13, 2019, and regression analysis on SPSS20 as well as Monte Carlo simulation analysis on JMP The research results show that human psychology drives the trading volume more than the rationality The hypothesis of rationality losses of significance for trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market Psychological factors experience a positive impact on trading volume Investors on stock market in Vietnam is the most effected by the optimism bias Overconfident and pessimistic investors have lower influence on trading volume than optimistic ones Keywords: Psychological factors, rational investors, optimistic investors, pessimistic investors, overconfident investors, stock market in Vietnam INTRODUCTION Data from Vietnam Securities Depository shows that the number of individual investors’ accounts has an overwhelming proportion on Vietnam’s stock market As of March 31, 2019, the number of domestic trading accounts reached 2,204,866 accounts, of which the number of trading accounts of individual investors was 2,195,374 while the number of accounts held by institutional investors just 9,492 accounts Individual investors are mostly amateur people, who have little capital and not have time to follow the fluctuations of the market Therefore, individual investors, though participating in a large number, have a lower level of portfolio diversification, smaller scale and transaction volume compared to institutional investors They often not have long-term investment strategies and not follow specific investment philosophies, so they are vulnerable and easily affected by many factors 313 IN TERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON - CIFBA 2020 For Vietnam, the impact of psychological factors on the market in the past years has been very complicated, causing negative consequences that threaten macroeconomic instability and financial security However, up to now, researches on behavioral finance of investors and the impact of psychological factors on Vietnam’s stock market are very few, especially quantitative studies Due to that reason, the paper aims to measure the impact of psychological factors on the stock market in order to propose a number of recommendations for contributing to the stable and sustainable development of Vietnam’s stock market Inheriting the research model of Dhaoui et al (2013), when studying the impact of investor psychology on the French stock market, the paper intends to use linear regression on SPSS20 and Monte Carlo simulation analysis on JMP to achieve the research goals The paper consists of parts, of which part is an introduction Part provides a literature review on behavioral finance and the main psychological factors affecting individual investors Part is methodology Part presents the empirical results Part proposes some discussions and conclusions LITERATURE REVIEW Effective market theory is the core of traditional financial models, strategies and policies (Jasman and Zamri, 2016)) Effective market theory is based on the principle that all rational behavior has the same purpose of maximizing benefits and that financial assets are reasonably priced because market information is accurately and fully reflected in asset prices (Toma, 2015) However, since the birth and development in the 1960s to present, there has been a lot of fierce debate about this theory (Ackert and Deaves, 2010; Shefrin, 2007) Especially now, effective market theory with rational investors no longer exists firmly because there are big gaps between theory and practice The decline in efficiency of traditional financial theories has led to the emergence of a new financial theory called behavioral finance Behavioral finance is the combination of many different sciences such as finance, psychology, and sociology (Ricciardi and Simon, 2000) From a financial perspective, behavioral finance uses basic human psychological theories to explain irregularities in the financial market According to the definition of Goldberg and Von Nitzsch (1999), behavioral finance is the theory of financial markets in which individuals act rationally within a certain framework Thaler (1999) points out that behavioral finance is an integration of classical economics and standard financial theory (Thaler, 1999) and behavioral finance tries to complement standard financial theory through the inclusion of psychological factors in the decision-making process (Ritter, 2003) To explain the psychology of investors, we focus on such four main types of psychological factors as (1) Overconfidence; (2) Conservatism or a psychology of fear of failure; (3) Herding psychology; (4) Availability bias or Heuristic bias Each psychological element has its own specific concepts and manifestations Stock Market t = isα0a+state β1 RatExpectf β2 Optim 𝛽𝛽3 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 Overconfidence in whicht + people tend think they are better than t +to 𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽 𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂𝑂 𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑡𝑡they 314 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS actually are (Trivers, 1991) An overconfident investor often sees himself better than other investors He appreciates himself more than others value him and often exaggerates his own understanding This behavior may lead overconfident investors to make trading more frequently than other investors (Wang, 1998; Glaser and Weber, 2007; Liu and Du, 2016) When macro or microeconomic conditions change, the conservative investors, who are afraid of failure, tend to be slow to respond to those changes and they often associate their views with the overall situation of previous time That is, when there is news of the economic downturn, conservative investors think that the weakness of the economy is only temporary and the economy will continue to go up in the long term without noticing that this could be the start of a multi-year recession 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 has not shown any improvement after a However,𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 when 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 the economic situation 𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 will quickly fail to maintain the belief that period of time, the conservative 𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 − 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿investors the market may recover so they will have extreme reactions Conservatism according to Edwards (1968) also makes investors quite conservative in receiving new evidence that changes their perception The herding effect in financial markets is a term that indicates that investors and fund managers can adopt a risky investment strategy in the market without collecting sufficient information just because many other investors so (Bikhchandani and Sharma, 2000) However, many investors copy the behavior of other investors in an unreasonable and sometimes completely irrational way (Economou, F., Katsikas, E., G Vickers, 2016), (Bensaïda, 2017), (Kabir, M.,S Shakur, 2018) Representativeness biases occur when investors hope that the outcome of a sequence of events generated by a random process can represent a certainty that will occur (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974) When investors have representativeness bias, they tend not to pay much attention to long-term factors, but often focus on short-term situations In other words, investors with representativeness bias tend to place too much emphasis on information about current situations, ignoring the need to use their previous knowledge (Liu and Du, 2016) In Vietnam, the topic of behavioral psychology of investors has attracted the attention of some researchers since 2010 The majority of previous researches focus on factors affecting investment decisions of investors in the Vietnam’s Stock Market such as the research conducted by University of Economics in Ho Chi Minh City in 2013, the study of Khoa Cuong Phan and Jian Zhou (2014) or the research of Pham Ngoc Toan and Nguyen Thanh Long (2018) In addition, there are a few studies that systematize theoretical basis or perform general qualitative analysis, which are quite not detailed about 04 psychological factors (including overconfidence, heuristic bias, herding behavior and conservatism), such as studies conducted by such authors as Ngo Thi Xuan Binh (2010), Dang Van Dan (2010), Nguyen Trong Tai (2016), Nguyen Ngoc Tu Van (2018) The research team found only three quantitative analysis studies, including those made by Xuan Vinh Vo and Dang Bao Anh Phan (2017) on herding behavior and by Duc Hien et al (2012) on deviations in the behavior of investors in Vietnam’s Stock Market It can be said that up to the present time, researches on behavioral finance as well as impact of psychological factors on 315 IN TERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON - CIFBA 2020 investors and Vietnam’s Stock Market are very little Particularly, there are few studies using quantitative methods METHODOLOGY 3.1 Data Instead of using data of all listed securities (both on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange and Hanoi Stock Exchange), the research team will focus on stocks in the VN30 basket In fact, although there are only 30 companies, due to being selected as the largest companies, VN30 index always covers more than 80% of the total market capitalization (VN-Index) and 60% of the total transaction value of the whole market The VN 30 index was deployed by Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) on February 6, 2012 The composition of VN30 index will be reviewed every months by HOSE’s advice council in July of the year and January of the following year The time series used during the review period are specified after the closing of the last trading session of June and December Thus, in order to serve the purpose of measuring the impact of psychological factors on Vietnam’s stock market, the study will use secondary data on trading volumes of 30 largest stocks by market capitalization and liquidity on HOSE from January 23, 2017 to December 13, 2019 So, there are 722 trading days for 30 individual stocks for each period of six months, making 21.329 observations 3.2 Research Model Price and trading volume are two inseparable factors, allowing a comprehensive reflection of the market Specifically: (i) When prices are rising, a low trading volume reflects little of the scarcity of goods on market; (ii) When prices are falling, a low trading volume reflects the situation that goods on the market are underestimated; (iii) When prices are “fluttering” with small volume of transactions, the market is frozen; (iv) When prices “swing” with a large transaction volume, there is a possibility of a changing trend in the near future but it is difficult to predict In other words, the agreement to buy and sell on stock market is reflected not only by the price balance between supply and demand but also by the volume of successful matching transactions Firstly, the study will measure the impact of psychological factors on the stock market in terms of trading volume The research model consists of independent variables and 01 dependent variable, following below equation: Where: Stock Markett is measured by logarithm of trading volume at day t; 316 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS RatExpectfi,t, Optimi,t, Pessimi,t, Overconfi,t respectively represent the stock i’s returns expected by rational investors, optimistic investor, pessimistic investors and overconfident investors in the time (t) considering available information in the time (t-1) Concerning psychological factors, there are some definitions as bellow: Rational investors always follow market trend (MT) Bourouis et al (2013) consider MT as a signal for rational expectation and give a formula measuring as follows: Investors must be optimistic when individual stock price exceeds the average price during a given period Therefore, the variable, which represent the yield expected by optimist investors at the time of transaction t based on available information on market at time t-1, is determined as return rate of stock i at time t in case close price is bigger than average price during the research period Investors must be pessimistic when the price decrease under the average level Therefore, the variable, which represents the yield expected by pessimist investor at the time of transaction t based on available information on market at time t-1, is computed as return rate of stock i at time t in case close price is smaller than average price during the research period.: According to Boynton et al (2009) and Ulessever et al (2011), overconfidence effect is controlled by historical return on trading volume This effect can be observed using this relation as follows: In (Trading volumet) = f(Rt-1) with Rt-1 is return on investment at period t-1 In this research, return on investment at period t-1 is used to measure overconfidence effects on stock market ▪ There are 04 hypothesis need to be verified, including - Hypothesis H1: Rational expectation (RatExpect) has impact on trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market - Hypothesis H2: Optimistic expectation (Optim) has impact on trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market - Hypothesis H3: Pessimistic expectation (Pessim) has impact on trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market - Hypothesis H4: Overconfident expectation (Overconf) has impact on trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market Secondly, the study will evaluate the sensitivity of trading volume (output variable) to psychological factors of investors (input variables) on stock market in Vietnam by using Monte Carlo analysis on JMP software This research will investigate trading volume sensitivity to all psychological factors as well as trading volume sensitivity to the couple of input variables 317 IN TERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON - CIFBA 2020 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Table shows descriptive statistics about independent variable (Ln(volume)) and independent vriables (including: RatExpect, Overconf, Optim and Pessim) Table indicates that Sig of Ln(volume) and dependent variables such as RatExpect, Overconf, Optim and Pessim is always smaller than 0.05 This means that independent variable and dependent variables have a statistically significant linear relationship (p < 0.01) They are positively correlated In other words, the direction of the relationship is positive, meaning that these variables tend to increase together It is clearly seen that Sig of Optim and Overconf and Sig of Optim and Pessim are 0.999 and 0.877, bigger than 0.05 However, collinearity Statistics show that VIF ratios are always less than [Table 3] That’s why the study decides to keep these variables in the next regression analysis Table Descriptive Statistics N Minimum Maximum Mean Std Deviation Ln(volume) 21329 7.0 17.7 13.591 1.3834 RatExpect 21329 0.00% 100.00% 49.0141% 34.92673% Overconf 21329 -70.48% 40.94% 0.0029% 2.20276% Optim 21329 -41.79% 40.94% 0.0503% 1.57312% Pessim 21329 -70.48% 7.00% -0.0520% 1.56576% Valid N (listwise) 21329 Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS Table Correlations Pearson Correlation Ln(volume) RatExpect Overconf Optim Pessim Ln(volume) RatExpect Overconf Optim Pessim 025 027 036 020** Sig (2-tailed) ** ** 000 000 000 003 N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329 Pearson Correlation 025 -.055 405 408** Sig (2-tailed) ** 000 ** ** 000 000 000 N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329 Pearson Correlation 027** -.055** 000 026** Sig (2-tailed) 000 000 999 000 N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329 Pearson Correlation 036 405 000 001 Sig (2-tailed) 000 000 999 N 21329 21329 21329 21329 21329 Pearson Correlation 020 408 026 001 Sig (2-tailed) 003 000 000 877 21329 21329 21329 21329 N ** ** ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed) Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS 318 ** ** ** ** 877 21329 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Table Anova & Coefficients ANOVAa Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square Regression 99.915 24.979 Residual 40716.402 21324 1.909 Total 40816.316 21328 a Dependent Variable: Ln(volume) b Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf, RatExpect F 13.082 Sig .000b Coefficientsa Standardized Coefficients Beta Unstandardized Coefficients Model B Std Error (Constant) 13.581 019 RatExpect 000 000 Overconf 017 004 Optim 030 007 Pessim 016 007 a Dependent Variable: Ln(volume) 005 027 034 018 t Collinearity Statistics Sig 720.813 589 3.913 4.481 2.310 Tolerance VIF 665 993 803 798 1.503 1.007 1.246 1.253 000 556 000 000 021 Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS Table indicates obviously that Sig of RatExpect is 0.589, more than 0.05 This means that impact of RatExpect on trading volume is not clear RatExpect should be rejected from the research model Optim has the highest standardized coefficients beta of 0.036 This shows a very significant impact of optimistic investors on trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market The next places are overconfident investors (0.027) and pessimistic investors (0.20) [Table 4] The research model can be explained as bellow: Ln(TV)t = α0 + 0.036 × Optimt + 0.020 × Pessimt + 0.027 × Overconft + 13.590 Table Model Summary & Anova & Coefficients after excluding RatExpect Model Summaryb Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Change Statistics Std Error of the R Square F Change df1 df2 Estimate Change 049a 002 002 1.3818 002 a Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf b Dependent Variable: Ln(volume) 17.327 DurbinSig F Change Watson 21325 000 200 ANOVAa Model Regression Residual Total Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig 99.252 40717.064 40816.316 21325 21328 33.084 1.909 17.327 000b a Dependent Variable: Ln(volume) b Predictors: (Constant), Pessim, Optim, Overconf 319 IN TERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON - CIFBA 2020 Coefficientsa Model (Constant) Overconf Optim Pessim Unstandardized Coefficients B Std Error 13.590 017 032 017 009 004 006 006 Standardized Coefficients t Sig 1434.849 3.878 5.293 2.880 000 000 000 004 Beta 027 036 020 Collinearity Statistics TolerVIF ance 999 1.000 999 1.001 1.000 1.001 a Dependent Variable: Ln(volume) Source: Correlation Analysis extracted in SPSS Figure shows the sensitivity of trading volume (output variable) to psychological factors of investors (input variables) It is clearly seen that results are similar to regression analysis on SPSS that the research mentioned as above The trading volume experience the most important sensitivity to optimistic psychology Source: Extract from JMP Figure Prediction Profiler Figure 2: Volume sensitivity to the couple of input variables (Optimism and Overconfidence; Pessimism and Overconfidence; Optimism and Pessimism) Source: Extract from JMP 320 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY - UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS Figure indicates the trading volume sensitivity to the couple of input variables It is obviously seen that trading volume is positively sensitive to all psychological factors, including: optimistic factors, overconfident factors and pessimistic factors In particular, the presence of optimistic investors experiences the most significant influence on trading volume In contrast, the impact of pessimism is less important than both that of optimism and overconfidence DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The regression analysis indicates that the hypothesis of rationality losses of significance for trading volume on Vietnam’s stock market This result is totally consistent with what Bourouis et al (2013) confirm in their research about stock market in France This means that human psychology drives the trading volume more than the rationality The relationship between trading volume and psychological factors are positive In addition, it is clearly seen that optimism drives more significantly the evolution of stock market in Vietnam, than overconfidence and pessimism This means that investors on stock market in Vietnam is the most effected by the optimism bias In terms of trading volume sensitivity to input variables, the presence of more optimistic investors influence mor significantly the trading volume than it is the case for the overconfident and pessimistic investors And the range of influence of high overconfidence is larger than that of pessimism This observation is totally with conformity to a report given by The Conference Board®Global Consumer Confidence in 2018 The Vietnamese people are ranked at 4th place among the most optimistic countries in the World, with Consumer Confidence Index of 122 points, after India, Philippines and Indonesia The research results highlight the most important effect of optimism on trading volume in Vietnam as well as significant impact of overconfidence and pessimism The presence of rational investors doesn’t experience any impact on trading volume on stock market in Vietnam This is the first empirical evidences about the impact of psychological factors on the stock market in Vietnam, contributing to enrich the existing empirical evidence on influence of investor’s psychology in emerging countries like Vietnam The study results are also significant in the context where Vietnamese individual investors are mostly amateur people, who have little capital and not have time to follow the fluctuations of the market and they are vulnerable and easily affected by many factors Investors as well as policy makers can refer these proofs to have more appropriate long-term investment strategies and make decision on contributing to the stable and sustainable development of Vietnam’s stock market However, it is obviously seen that the research is executed in a short period of three years and only focus on individual stocks of VN30 Therefore, the research results cannot fully reflect the total nature of investor’s psychology on Vietnam’s stock market There is a need for further follow-up studies with deep analysis, highly specific recommendations and longer (richer) sample of data as well as different complicated financial behaviors of investors who are trading in Vietnam Stock Market 321 IN TERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON - 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