Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 13 ppt

... distribution with p = 0.8.FIGURE A.27 Yes-no distribution with p = 0.8.192 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL are: market demand for products and services, labor supply and cost, ormaterials ... max[0,n −N +Nx], and b = min[Nx, n].FIGURE A.14 Hypergeometric distribution with Nx= 50, n = 50, and N = 100.204 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL Bernoulli trials; and the negative ... price and a future date for a transaction that both parties are obligated to complete.187222 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE A.18 Minimum extreme distribution with m = 0, and...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

... Crystal Ball Assumptions 36 Crystal Ball s Basic Distributions 36Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 54Specifying Correlations 63vii10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal ... approximation to reality.4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL In short, probability and statistics help you weigh the potential rewards and punishments associated with the decisions you ... Chart 129Conclusion 129 CHAPTER 9Portfolio Models 132 Single-Period Crystal Ball Model 132 Single-Period Analytical Solution 134 Multiperiod Crystal Ball Model 135 CHAPTER 10Value at Risk...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx

... 3, 4, and 5, where each Ztis drawn from a116 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.11 Spider chart.analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated inputs and ... year. These are106 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministiccash ﬂows of −$100 at the end of Year 0, and $30 at the end ... cash ﬂow)112 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.6 ScooterNPV.xls spreadsheet model.In the next section, we use this model to demonstrate the use of Crystal Ball sTornado...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx

... up with a goodmodel for deﬁning sales assumptions.128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 ... Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions were varied ... the 1stpercentile to the 99th percentile in ﬁve equally spaced steps.126 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.1 Historical income statement in Sengupta.xls.income statement...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx

... tool.18 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.5 Frequency distributions depicting negative (Skewness =−2), positive (+2), and near-zero(0.02) skewness at top left, top right, and ... more.26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 years of retirement savings for twodifferent allocations into stocks and bonds ... Figure 2.2, thepossible values range from $0 to $15 million, and are broken up into 15 equal14 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.3 Cumulative frequency chart showing accumulated...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx

... to offer for sale in its retail stores and afﬁliated pro shops. It plans to2832 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 3.4 Deﬁning the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... section, we will add assumptions and a forecast to thedeterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model.30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 3.1 Stochastic assumptions ... Further, with Crystal Ball it is easy to change more than one input at a time, as we will see in the nextsection.DEFINING CRYSTAL BALL ASSUMPTIONSA stochastic input cell in Crystal Ball is...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball forﬁtting distributions. Suppose a random sample of ... distribution.66 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL cells B2:B78 and C2:C78, respectively, in the spreadsheet PearsonSpearman.xls.Cell H2 is lognormal(1.18,0.36), and cell I2 is lognormal(1 .13, 0.22).The ... from the fact that it represents arandom variable whose natural logarithm follows the normal distribution. Like the68 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4.33 Calculate Correlation...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot

... second quarter of year, and abandon theproject if three consecutive quarters of cash ﬂow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.21 Step ... through K are hidden.94 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL different values for Abandon Point and seven different values for Expansion Point.If we used more values with Decision Table, ... values that Crystal Ball checks and thusspeeds up the analysis.86 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL To see the decision variable for threshold value of cash ﬂow for expanding theproject,...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processingduring each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User Manual ... here.FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab.96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball executes the simulation cycle automatically, ... increase the precision of theestimate of the mean.100 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.5 Run Preferences Sampling tab.these random numbers has the capability to produce over...

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps

... following mathematical programming problem: 138 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainablewithdrawal rates for two planning horizons.Horizon ... problem, and gives ﬁnancial planners an idea of how to use Crystal Ball and OptQuest todemonstrate to their clients the risks involved in retirement planning. 136 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL ... stochastic, remaining lifetime horizon, the estimated median value of her 134 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual totalreturns during...

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