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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 6 docx

... discussed further here.FIGURE 6. 8 Run Preferences Statistics tab. 96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6. 1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball executes the simulation ... (zα/2, s,andn) can be used to increase the precision of theestimate of the mean.100 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6. 5 Run Preferences Sampling tab.these random numbers ... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processingduring each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User Manual...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 1 pptx

... Crystal Ball Assumptions 36 Crystal Ball s Basic Distributions 36 Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 54Specifying Correlations 63 vii10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCELCrystal ... College on Simulation, and proceedings coeditor (19 96) and program chair (2002) for the Winter Simulation Confererences.xvii Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel JOHN CHARNESJohn ... approximation to reality.4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL In short, probability and statistics help you weigh the potential rewards and punishments associated with the decisions you...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 2 ppsx

... that only 9, 761 trials are displayed, the value$3,775,824 for the mean in Figure 2.4 is calculated from all 10,000 trials of thesimulation. 16 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE ... more. 26 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.15 Overlay chart comparing accumulated value after 30 years of retirement savings for twodifferent allocations into stocks and bonds ... tool.18 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2.5 Frequency distributions depicting negative (Skewness =−2), positive (+2), and near-zero(0.02) skewness at top left, top right, and...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 3 potx

... to offer for sale in its retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to2832 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 3.4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... section, we will add assumptions and a forecast to thedeterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model.30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 3.1 Stochastic assumptions ... cellfirst Crystal Ball needs to recognize the location as a number cell. In Crystal Ball 7.2 and higher, when you attempt to define an assumption in an empty cell, a value of 0Building a Crystal Ball...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

... distribution. 66 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL cells B2:B78 and C2:C78, respectively, in the spreadsheet PearsonSpearman.xls.Cell H2 is lognormal(1.18,0. 36) , and cell I2 is ... 60 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL This section gives a brief description of the procedures used by Crystal Ball forfitting distributions. Suppose a random sample ... from the fact that it represents arandom variable whose natural logarithm follows the normal distribution. Like the 68 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4.33 Calculate Correlation...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 5 pot

... second quarter of year, and abandon theproject if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below − $6 occur; and (2) expand if88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.21 Step ... values that Crystal Ball checks and thusspeeds up the analysis. 86 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL To see the decision variable for threshold value of cash flow for expanding theproject, ... Decision Table, namely an Abandon Point of 6 and an Expansion Point of 5. For both Figures 5.27 and 5.22, we used four92 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 5.25 Forecast Selection...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 7 pptx

... sampling error from the means of $6. 02 and 20% shown in Figures 7.15 and 7. 16. This is a manifestation of Jensen’s108 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL normal(0,1) distribution independently ... 3, 4, and 5, where each Ztis drawn from a1 16 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.11 Spider chart.analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated inputs and ... year. These are1 06 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.1 Spreadsheet segment to model annuity with deterministiccash flows of −$100 at the end of Year 0, and $30 at the end...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 8 pptx

... mostimportant driver of 20 06 EBIT. This emphasizes the need to come up with a goodmodel for defining sales assumptions.128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8.4 Crystal Ball model for ... Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6,J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast.FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls.The values of the Crystal Ball assumptions ... Statements129FIGURE 8 .6 Sensitivity analysis chart for Crystal Ball modelin Sengupta2.xls. CRYSTAL BALL SENSITIVITY CHARTFigure 8 .6 shows a sensitivity chart for the Crystal Ball model for 2002–20 06 forthe...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 9 pps

... problem, and gives financial planners an idea of how to use Crystal Ball and OptQuest todemonstrate to their clients the risks involved in retirement planning.1 36 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL ... following mathematical programming problem:138 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.4 Optimal asset allocations and sustainablewithdrawal rates for two planning horizons.Horizon ... estimated median value of her134 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 9.3 Spearman correlation matrix for annual totalreturns during the period 19 26 2002 for four assetclasses.LCS...
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Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10 potx

Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 10 potx

... lose1401 46 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 10.2 VaR and CVaR forindependent investments modeled inCVaRSubadditivity.xls.1% VaR 1% CVaRTotal Loss $ 209.51 $ 4 ,68 7Loss1 ... forecast window for Portfolio Loss inFigure 10.1.144 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 10.4 Crystal Ball model to find VaR and CVaR.normally distributed, but truncated at −100 ... lower than the sumof the component risks, and so it is a satisfactory measure of risk from this point ofview.142 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL SHORTCOMINGS OF VARVaR provides...
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