Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future 3 pdf

... haveasweanticipaterecovery from the current cri-sis and in the years and decades ahead? What will the economy of the future looklike?Among people who work in the field of computer technology, itisfairlyroutinetospeculateabout the like-lihoodthatcomputerswillsomedayapproach,orpossiblyevenexceed,humanbeingsingeneralcapability and intel-ligence. ... Robotics and Offshoring 86 Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment 87 The Future of College Education 90 Econometrics: Looking Backward 93 The Luddite Fallacy 95 THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... on Technology 1 03 Chapter 3: Danger 107 The Predictive Nature of Markets 107 The 2008-2009 Recession 110 Offshoring and Factory Migration 1 13 Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future...

... aregrowingdark.Nowweseethatmany of the verybrightestlightsin the tunnelfinallyfeel the impact and alsobegintolosetheirlight. The owners of the businessesin the tunnelareseeingmuch of theirwealthgraduallydrainaway. The ... mayhaveactuallyin-creasedforatime,astheywereabletolowertheirprices.Asaresult,theirprofits, and therefore the wealth of theirtopemployees and shareholdersincreased.Thesewere the brighterlightsin the tunnelthatinitiallybecamestronger.However,asnearlyallbusinessesin the tunnelcontinuedtoautomatejobs,atsomepoint the decreasein the num-ber of potentialcustomersbeganto ... quitesurethatcomputerswereimportantenoughtomerittheirownengineeringfield. The University of Michiganhadone of the mostad-vanced computing centers in the country. The computerthen in use was a state -of -the- art...

... of Workers Percentage of Workers Retailsalespersons 4 ,37 4, 230  3. 3%Cashiers 3, 479 ,39 02.6%Officeclerks 3, 026,7102 .3% Combinedfoodpreparation and serv-ingworkers,includingfastfood2,461,8901.9%Registerednurses ... the glassesisopen and the other closed. And, of course, the glassescouldberotatedinanydirection. And perhapstheyare touching or somehow entangled with other objects.Building and programminga ... morepopular.Whatwillwedoifsomedayasubstantialpercen-tage of the three and ahalfmillioncashiersin the U.S.nolongerhavejobs?Whatadditionaleducation and trainingcanweoffertheseworkers? And whatjobswoulditpre-parethemfor? And what is the impact of thatpotential unemploy-mentonmarketdemandforgoods and services?Cashiersaregenerallynothighlypaid,buttheynonethelessexistaslightsinourmassmarkettunnel.Cashiers,justlikeotherworkers,drivecars,buyclothes and consumerelectronics,rent...

... food—all of these and countlessthousands of otherstructures and chemicalsthatcompriseourbodies and make usfunctionareproteins. And theyareallconstructedthroughnanotechnology.Itislikelythat the coming“nanotech”revolutionwillbegin ... collating and faxing in-formation. The intellectualportion of the job—eitherap-provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy, there*Formoreonrobotics and itspotentialimpactonemployment and on ... of the geometrically increasing technology line. Prior to the point where the impact be-comesobvious,thereisreallynowaypastdatacanshowthem the steepverticalpart of the linethatliesahead.The...

... Amazontakeaper-capitaincomethatissomewhatcomparabletothat of developed nations and then multiply it by somehugefraction of the Chinesepopulation.In otherwords,theyassume that a very significant percentage of the 1 .3 billion ... effortlesslyacrossborders, and (3)  The fall of Soviet-stylecommun-ism and the adoption of market-based economiesthroughout the world. This has resulted in hundreds of millions of workers ... AmazonInthisbook,wewon’tagainstrayintothismorespe-culativearena(exceptin the lastsections of the Appendix). The ideaspresentedinthisbookdonotdependon the oc-currence of the technologicalsingularity. The standardwehave set is...

... todecline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverageworkers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-tribution of incomesin the UnitedStates and thenelimi-nateboth the richest and the poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincome of the remaining“typical”people (the bulk of consumers) ... tolookinalittlemoredepthatsome of the mostwidelyheldconventionalassumptionsabout the future and seeiftheyarereallyreasonable: The primaryforcethatwillshape the comingdecadeswillbeglobalization.Offshoring of jobs and the con-tinuingmigration of manufacturingtolowwagecoun-tries ... whocontrols technology.  And as of the mo-ment,thatcontinuestolargelybe the UnitedStates.Inthatsense, the future for the U.S.couldpotentiallybemuchbrighterthan the conventionalwisdomsuggests.Butthatisonlyifwecanadapt, and thatwillbeaveryse-riouschallenge. The UnitedStatesisfundamentallyacon-servativecountry....

... elimi-nates the jobsthatprovideincometoconsumers. The es-sentialideaisthatweshouldimposesomecombination of aconsumptiontax and/ oraspecialdirecttaxonbusinessthatcaptures the incomewhich,inanon-automatedecon-omy,wouldbepaidoutinwages.Overtime,as the wagespaidtoaverageworkersdecrease(asapercentage of reve-nue),thesetaxeswouldbegraduallyincreasedtorecaptureatleastaportion of thisincome. The overallobjectiveistorecapturejust the optimalamount of income and thengetitinto the hands of consumerssothattherewillbesuffi-cientconsumerdemandtocontinuedriving the economy. Once the income ... capturesourinterestforatime, the moststrikingrealizationisthatnothingelsehaschangedin the tunnel.Aswewatch,weseethat the lightscontinuetosoftlyimpact the panelson the walls of the tunnel as consumers purchase products and services. The businesses in the tunnel make no dis-tinctionsbasedon the color of the lights.Overtime, the process of creativedestructioncontinuesjustasit ... ittakesagreatdeal of humanlabortoproducethoseprod-ucts and services.Therefore,itisfairtosaythat the value of moneyistiedverycloselytoproductivity,or the generalefficiency of production. If in fact, the economy of the future ishighlyautomated and requiresfewworkers,thenTransition / 1 93 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle...

... dramaticallynegative.In the UnitedStates,twothirds of workers and thereforeconsumers—donothaveacollegedegree.Whileeffortstoimproveeducation and trainingarelaudable, the realityisthatthisisnotlikelytooffset the impact of geo-metrically accelerating technology. Infact,Ithinkthat the THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 230 ... havestrongeducations and training.Thesepeoplearebeneficia-ries of the informationage.On the toxicwastelandside of the fence, are relatively unskilled workers. These people THE LIGHTS IN THE ... well clog the courts of the future. As I pointed out in Chapters 2 and 3,  the long-termimpact of a diminishing economic incentive for averagepeopletopursuefurthereducationwouldbedisastrous.Inmyopinion,thisrealityprobablyconstitutes the singlebestTHE...

... acentrallyplanned economy,  and perhaps most chillingly, the overthrow of govern-ments and a“dictatorship of the proletariat.”In the wake of the collapse of communism, these ideas ... Amazon49Blinder,AlanS.,“IsGovernmenttooPolitical?”ForeignAffairs,No-vember/December1997.Web:http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19971101faessay3815/alan-s-blinder/is-government-too-political.html50JeremyRifkin, The End of Work: The Decline of the GlobalLaborForce and the Dawn of the Post-MarketEra,NewYork,PenguinGroup,1995. ... 51CorneliaDean,“ScientificSavvy?InU.S.NotMuch”,NewYorkTimes,August 30 ,2005,web:http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08 /30 /science /30 profile.html52SeeChrisAnderson’s The LongTail:Why the Future of BusinessisSellingLess of More,abookbasedonanarticleinWiredMagazine,October2004.Web:http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html 53 JohnMaynardKeynes,“EconomicPossibilitiesforourGrandchil-dren,”(writtenin1 930 ),EssaysinPersuasion,NewYork,W.W.Norton,19 63. Web:http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1 .pdf p.195footnote,Einstein’sviewontechnologicalunemployment,see:WalterIsaacson,Einstein:HisLife and Universe,NewYork,Simon&Schuster,2007,p.4 03. Chapter...

... hasquicklyattracted the notice of the Securities and ExchangeCommission and mayresultinnewregulation.Astheseexamplesshow,wecanexpectthat the rate of change and the volatility of nearlyeverythingarounduswill ... of Workers Percentage of Workers Retailsalespersons 4 ,37 4, 230  3. 3%Cashiers 3, 479 ,39 02.6%Officeclerks 3, 026,7102 .3% Combinedfoodpreparation and serv-ingworkers,includingfastfood2,461,8901.9%Registerednurses ... Drive-throughbanksprovidedausefulconveniencetocustom-ers and alsooftenofferedextendedhours of operation. The pointIammakinghereisthatoffshoringisreallya precursor of automation. Offshoring is what you do THE LIGHTS IN THE...