The Lights in the Tunnel Automation Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future 4 pptx

... AmazonCopyright©2009byMartinR.FordAllRightsReserved,including the right of reproduction in wholeor in part in anyform.Published in the UnitedStatesbyAcculant™Publishing.Library of CongressCataloging -in- PublicationDataFord,MartinR. The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future /MartinFordp.cm.IncludesbibliographicalreferencesISBN-101 -44 86-5981-7ISBN-13978-1 -44 86-5981 -4 1.Economics Future Trends2.Economics—Impact of Advanced Technology on3.ArtificialIntelligence and Robotics 4. Computer Technology and Civilization5.TechnologicalUnemploymentI.TitleThis ... arecaught in the cycle of poverty and remaindimindefinitely. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL AUTOMATION, ACCE LE RATINGTE CHNOLOGY AND THE  ECONOMY OF THE FUTURE  MartinFord THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 8 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle ... ob-viouslydon’tcaterdirectlyto the globalmassmarket,theyarenone-thelessintegratedinto the activitythatoccurs in the tunnel, and theyare heavily impacted by the overall health and vitality of the massmarket. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL...

... of the tunnel walls aregrowingdark.Nowweseethatmany of the verybrightest lights in the tunnel finallyfeel the impact and alsobegintolosetheirlight. The owners of the businesses in the tunnel areseeingmuch of theirwealthgraduallydrainaway. The ... eliminateevenkeyemployeesthattheyformerlyfeltwerecrucialtotheiroperations.Asthishappens,webegintoseesome of the brighter lights in the tunnel rapidlybegintodim. The continuing decrease in demand falls especiallyheavilyon the manufacturingbusinesseslocated in devel-opingnationslikeChina.Thesebusinessesrelyonproduc-ingveryhighvolumeproducts,whichtheyexporttofirstworldnations.Theyarenowseverelycuttingjobs and the flow of newmiddleclasspeopleinto the tunnel hasallbutstopped.As ... ourDNAmolecule and identifyingeachgenetookatremend-ousamount of computationalresources, and gridcompu-tingplayedasignificantrole in this. The geneticinformationobtainedthrough the projectisstored in databases and canbeaccessedbyscientists and researchersvia the Internet. The resultisafantasticsource of knowledgethatcontinuestobeanalyzed and whichiscertain to result in innumerable future advances in the fields of genetics,bio-engineering and medicine.An especially interestingdevelopment in the field of gridcomputingis the ideathatunusedpoweronvirtuallyanycomputerconnectedto the Internetcanbeintegratedintoavoluntarygrid and deployedtosolvebigproblems.Mostcomputers,iflefton,donothingatallduringlargeblocks of time,especiallyovernight. The ideatotiethesecomputerstogetherbyhavingtheirownersdonateunusedcomputingpowerhassprungup in anumber of places.Stanford...

... voice -automation technology. ”19Thisisone of the reasonsthatIdidnotincludeoff-shoring in our tunnel simulation.Wecouldhavesimulatedanoffshoredjobasanaveragelightflickeringout in onepart of the tunnel and then ... drinkcoffeeatStarbucks. In terms of unitdemandformoderate-lypricedpersonalproductslikecellphonesormp3play-ers,acashiermaycountasmuchasacorporateCEO.Many of the jobslisted in the tablearealready in the process of being automated oroffshored.Otherswillbetargeted in the verynear future. Millions of otherworkers in occupations that ... cashdrawer.Ifyouwere in one of the lanesfurtherout,however,thingswerefarmoreinteresting.Yousealedyourmoney,paperwork,checkbook,etc.intoaplasticcylinder and thendropped the cylinder into the providedopening. The cy-linder then traveled through an underground tube—propelled I think by some sort of ...

... thisprocess is in collecting, copying, collating and faxing in- formation. The intellectualportion of the job—eitherap-provingordenying the loan—isprobablyalreadyessential-lyhandledbyacomputer.Throughout the economy, there*Formoreonrobotics and itspotentialimpactonemployment and on ... businessesover the Internet.UsingXML, the computersatamanu-facturingcompanycantalkdirectlyto the computersbe-longingto the company’ssuppliers. The continuingdrivetowardpaperlessdocuments and seamlesscommunicationislikelytoeliminatemany of thesehumaninterfacejobs in the comingyears. The Next “Killer App” Since the beginnings of the personal computer industry,computerhardwaresaleshaveoftenbeendrivenbyapar-ticularsoftwareapplicationsocompellingthatithasmoti-vatedcustomerstopurchase the machinerequiredtorunit.When the AppleIIwasintroduced in 1977,it ... wellwithin the realm of possibility in the nottoodistant future.  THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 74 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon Automation, Offshoring and Small Business Wetendtothink of automation and offshoringasprimari-lyimpactingjobs in largecorporations.Afterall,ittakesasubstantial...

... shoulders of American and Europeanconsumers. And aswehavenotedagain and again in thisbook,thoseWesternconsumersalldependonjobs.If automation be-ginstodramaticallyimpactemployment in China,whileat the sametimedemanddwindles in the West and certain-lyif the catastrophiceventdescribed at the beginning of thischapteroccurs—thenthiseconomicperpetualmotionmachineisgoingtocollapse.Givenallthis,whatcanwereallysayabout the future of China?Nearlyafourth of the world’spopulationlives in China;therefore,thereisnodoubtthatthiscountrywillcontinuetohavesignificant, and perhapsincreasing,influ-ence in the decadestocome.However,simplyextrapolat-ingcurrenttrendsisveryunlikelytogiveanaccuratepro-jection.Chinaisgoingtobeheavilyimpactedbyaccelerat-ing ... exports, the major factorpropping up the Chinese economy is the continuingenormous investment in infrastructure. Clearly however,thislevel of spendingisnotsustainableindefinitely.Many ... SingularityManypeoplehavepostulatedthat the singularitywillbebroughtonwhenmachinesfinallybecomesmarterthanus, and then applythathigher intelligence to the task of Technology Time Singularity THE LIGHTS IN THE...

... todecline.Rememberthatwearetalkinghereaboutaverageworkers.Toget the graphabove,youmighttake the dis-tribution of incomes in the UnitedStates and thenelimi-nateboth the richest and the poorestpeople.Thengraph the averageincome of the remaining“typical”people (the bulk of ... competitive advantage in terms of attracting and retaininginvestment.India and Offshoring We’venotedthat Chinadoesnot yet haveanintegrated,self-sustaining modern economy.  This ... $1,081,000Canthisprocesscontinueforever?Aswesaw in the previous chapter, automation technology is likely to in- creasinglyinvade the remaininglaborintensivesectors of the economy. Whenthishappens,whatindustrieswillbelefttoabsorball the dislocatedworkers?Lookat the tableabove....

... conservativereaderislikelytoviolentlyrecoilfromthisidea.Isthisnot the worstform of RobinHoodsocialism?AmInotpro-posingtostealfromthosewhohaveworkedhardtobuildabusiness and thensimplygive the proceedstomasses of indolentpeople in returnfordoingnothing?IwillarguethatIamproposingnone of thesethings.Putyourself in the place of ... capturesourinterestforatime, the moststrikingrealizationisthatnothingelsehaschanged in the tunnel. Aswewatch,weseethat the lights continuetosoftlyimpact the panelson the walls of the tunnel as consumers purchase products and services. The businesses in ... Amazonmeltdown.Once the currentglobalcrisiseases,wecanbesurethatgovernmentswillturnto the task of attemptingtocontainthisrisk in the future byimposingregulationon the markets.However, the impact of advancingtechnolo-gy willnotbeconfinedto just the financialmarkets....

... dramaticallynegative. In the UnitedStates,twothirds of workers and thereforeconsumers—donothaveacollegedegree.Whileeffortstoimproveeducation and trainingarelaudable, the realityisthatthisisnotlikelytooffset the impact of geo-metrically accelerating technology. In fact,Ithinkthat the THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... havestrongeducations and training.Thesepeoplearebeneficia-ries of the informationage.On the toxicwastelandside of the fence, are relatively unskilled workers. These people THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL ... past the threshold,butonceinside,theyjoin the river of lights asitcourses over the panels on the tunnel walls. At first, wesensethat the businesses in the tunnel arestrainingsome-what...

... to individual people buyingstuff. THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL / 2 34 CopyrightedMaterial–Paperback/Kindle available @ AmazonTrouble in China Ifconsumerspending in the U.S. and the rest of the ... simulate the workings of the brain.Onceresearchersgainanunderstanding of the basicoperating principles of the brain, it may be possible tobuild an artificial intelligence ... 38RobertJ.Shapiro,Futurecast:howsuperpowers,populations, and globaliza-tionwillchange the wayyoulive and work,NewYork,St.Martin’sPress,2008.39ThomasL.Friedman, The WorldisFlat:ABriefHistory of the TwentyFirstCentury,NewYork,Farrar,Strause and Giroux,2005,2006. 40 China’shighsavingrate the result of governmentpolicy,see:Ea-monnFingleton, In the Jaws of the Dragon:America’sFate in the ComingEra of ChineseHegemony,NewYork,St.Martin’sPress,2008. 41 PietraRivoli, The Travels of aT-Shirt in the Global Economy: AnEcono-mistExamines the Markets,Power and Politics of WorldTrade,JohnWiley and Sons,NewYork,2005,p 40 . 42 Ibid.p 142 . 43 JeffRubin and BenjaminTal,“WillSoaringTransportCostsRe-verseGlobalization?,”CIBCWorldMarketsStrategEcon,March27,2008.Web:http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/about/pdfs/oil.pdf 44 Revenueperemployeenumbers.Source:GoogleFinance,basedon2008revenue. 45 “…growthwithoutjobcreation.”, The Economist,August11,2003.Web:http://www.economist.com/agenda/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=1985889 46 Huether,David, The Case of the MissingJobs,BusinessWeek,April3,2006.Web:http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_ 14/ b3978116.htm 47 Technicallythismightbebettercalled“regressive”or“reversepro-gressive”since the deductionishigheratlowerwagelevels.However,thosewordshavenegativeconnotations… 48 FareedZackaria, The Future of Freedom:IlliberalDemocracyatHome and Abroad,NewYork,W.W.Norton&Co.,2003,p.172-173.Notes...

... sinh cãi cọ và rầu rĩ39 39All in all, translation in some certain meaning in a work of creativity and imagination. Knowing the way is far different from actually going on that way. In other ... process ands a product, the notion of translation methods, particularly from Newmark point of view, and equivalence in translation. The role of the translator as the bilingual mediating agent in ... example: The leg of the table Run into debt Foot of the stairs The head of state Foot of the class Live metaphors are not often easily understood at one and readers should base themselves on the...