K t qu nghiên c u r t c n cho các nhà qu n tr đ c i thi n kh n ng sinh l i nh m nâng cao giá tr cho c đông và các t ng công ty nhà n c. Tuy nhiên, nghiên c u c ng có m t s h n ch :
- Các công ty thành viên thu c các t ng công ty nhà n c ngành xây d ng ho c niêm y t ch a nhi u ho c th i gian niêm y t ch a đ dài nên s l ng m u nghiên c u
ch a đ c l n. Giai đo n nghiên c u c a đ tài c ng ch a đ dài. M u g m 23 công ty niêm y t trên TTCK VN, t ng c ng ch có 115 quan sát trong giai đo n 2008- 2012.
- V v n đ thu th p d li u, tính trung th c trong BCTC, BCTN c a các công ty niêm y t c ng c n đ c nh c đ n. Nh ng sai l ch trong báo cáo xu t phát t nguyên nhân thông tin không minh b ch hay t h th ng ho t đ ng k toán tài chính trong công ty c ng nh ch t l ng ki m toán các BCTC có th nh h ng tr c ti p đ n k t qu th c nghi m trong lu n v n này. M c dù nh ng sai l ch nh v a đ c p có th nh h ng tr c ti p đ n k t qu nghiên c u, nh ng đây là r i ro n m ngoài t m ki m soát c a lu n v n.
- Vi c tìm hi u tác đ ng c a qu n tr v n l u đ ng đ n kh n ng sinh l i c a doanh nghi p m i ch d ng l i bi n s hi u qu là ROE mà ch a m r ng ra các bi n
s ph khác nh ROA, ROI, ROS… đ đánh giá toàn di n h n.
- Bên c nh đó đ tài c ng ch a ph n ánh các y u t v mô nh h ng đ n kh
n ng sinh l i nh GDP, l m phát.
TÀI LI U THAM KH O
Tài li u tham kh o n c ngoài:
1. Afeef, M. (2011). “Analyzing the Impact of Working Capital Management on The Profitability on SME’s in Pakistan”. International Journal of Business and Social Science, vol.2, No.22, pp.173-183.
2. Afza, T and Nazir, M (2009). “Impact of Aggressive Working Capital Management Policy on Firms’ Profitability”. The IUP Journal of Applied Finance, vol.15, No.8, pp.20-30.
3. Allen, F. and Gale, D. (2000). “Financial Contagion”. The Journal of Political Economy, vol.108, No.1, pp.1-33.
4. Ali, M. and Hassan, S. H. (2010). “Relationship Between The Profitability and Working Capital Policy of Swedish Companies”. Master thesis of Umea University. 5. Arellano, M. and Bond, S. (1991). “Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte
Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations”. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, pp. 277-297.
6. Arnold, G. (2008). Corporate Financial Management. 14th Edition, Pearson Education Limited.
7. Baker, H. K. and Powell, G. E (2005). Understanding Financial Management: A Practical Guide. 1st Edition, Blackwell Publishing.
8. Brealey, R.A., Myers, S.C and Marcus, A.J (2001). Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. 3rd Edition, McGraw-Hill.
9. Brigham, E.F. and Besley, S. (2008). Essential of Managerial Finance. 14th Edition, South Western, Cengage Learning.
10. Brigham, E.F. and Houston, J.F. (2009). Fundamentals of Financial Management.
12th Edition, South Western, Cengage Learning.
11. Charitou, M. (2010). “The effect of Working Capital Management on Firm’s Profitability: Empirical Evidence from an Emerging Market”. Journal of Business and Economics Research, vol.8, No.12, pp.63-68.
12. Chatterjee, S. (2010). “The Impact of Working Capital Management on The Profitability of the Listed Companies in the London Stock Exchange”. Có th download t http://ssrn.com/abstract=1587249.
13. Dong, H.P. and Su, J. (2010). “The Relationship Between Working Capital Management and Profitability: A Vietnam Case”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 49, pp.59-67.
14. Firer, C., Ross. S.A., Westerfiel R.W and Jordon, B. D. (2008). Fundametnal of Coparate Finance. 4th Edition, South African. Mc Graw Hill.
15. Garcia-Teruel, P.J. and Martinez- Solano, P. (2007). “Effects of Working Capital Management SME Profitability”. International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol.3, No.2, pp.164-177.
16. Gitman, L. J. and Zutter, C.J. (2012). Principle of Managerial Finance. 13th Edition, Prentice Hall.
17. Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C. (2004). Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition, The McGraw-Hill Companies.
18. Janet, M (2009). International Business: Challenges in a changing world. Plgrave Mcmillan.
19. Kole, SR. and Mulherin, JH. (1997). “Government as a Shareholder: A Case from the United States”. The Journal of Law and Economics, vol.40, pp.170.
20. Lazaridis, I. and Tryfonidis, D. (2006). “The Relationship Between Working Capital
Management and Profitability of Listed Companies in the Athens Stock Exchange”.
Có th download t http://ssrn.com/abstract=931591.
21. Lhost, J. (2004). “The Cause, Effects and Implications of Financial Contagion”. Entry for The 2004 Moffatt Prize in Economics.
22. Menard, S. (2002). “Applied Logistic Regression Analysis”. 2nd Edition, Sage University Papers Series on Quantitative Application in the Social Sciences, No.106, pp.76.
23. Mileva, E. (2007). Using Arellano – Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata. Fordham University.
24. Nobanee, H. (2009). “Working Capital Management and Firm’s Profitability: An
Optimal Cash Conversion Cycle”. Có th download t
http://ssrn.com/abstract=1471230.
25. Nobanee, H. and AlHajjar, M (2009). “A note on Working Capital Management and
Corporate Profitability of Japanese Firms”. Có th download t
http://ssrn.com//abstract=1433243.
26. Ongore, V.O. (2011). “The relationship between ownership structure and firm performance: An empirical analysis of listed companies in Kenya”. African Journal of Business Management, vol. 5, No. 6, pp. 2120-8.
27. Paramasivan, C. and Subramanian, T. (2008). Financial Management. New Age International Publishers.
28. Raheman, A. and Nasr, M. (2007). “Working Capital Management and Profitability- Case of Pakistani Firms”. International Review of Business Research papers, vol. 3, No.1, pp.279-300.
29. Sen, M. and Oruc, E. (2009). “Relationship between Efficiency Level of Working capital management and Return on Total Assets in ISE”. International Journal of Business and Management, vol.4, No.10, pp.109-114.
30. Shad, A. and Sana, A. (2006). “Impact of Working Capital Management on the Profitability of Oil and Gas Sector of Pakistan”. European Journal of Scientific Research, vol.15, No.3, pp.301-307.
31. Thomsen, S. and Pedersen, T. (2000). “Ownership Structure and Economic Performance in the Largest European Companies”. Strategic Management Journal, vol.21, No.6, pp. 689-705.
32. Tian, L. and Estrin, S. (2008). “Retained state shareholding in Chinese PLCs: Does government ownership always reduce corporate value?”. Journal of Comparative Economics, vol.36, No.1, pp. 74-89.
33. Uyar, A. (2009). “The Relationship of Cash Conversion Cycle with Firm Size and Profitability: An Empirical Investigation in Turkey”. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 24, pp.186-193.
34. Van Horne, J.C and Wachowicz, J.M (2005). Fundamentals of financial
management. Prentice Hall, New York.
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Tài li u tham kh o trong n c:
Nguy n T n Bình (2010), “Phân tích ho t đ ng doanh nghi p”, Nhà xu t b n T ng h p Tp.HCM
PH L C
Ph l c 1: K t qu mô hình h i quy Pool
Mô hình 3.1 Mô hình 3.2 Mô hình 3.3 Mô hình 3.4 ACP - 0.0009*** AIP - 0.00018 APP - 0.00052** CCC - 0.00025* CR 0.07726* 0.06106 0.03815 0.07593 CTR 0.17515** 0.14042* 0.15719** 0.15136*** SIZE 0.0137 0.01038 0.00861 0.01126 FL 0.00918 0.00974 0.00935 0.00964 SP 0.22868*** 0.25695*** 0.22449*** 0.26707*** FC 0.01887 0.03108 0.02406 0.02881 cons - 0.42565 - 0.35685 - 0.27223 - 0.39029 R2 hi u ch nh 0.2634 0.1669 0.1970 0.1828 Ký hi u ***,**,* ch ra m i t ng quan có ý ngha th ng kê t i các m c ý ngha 1%, 5% và 10%. ROE: su t sinh l i trên v n ch s h u, ACP: th i gian thu ti n, AIP: th i gian t n kho, APP: th i gian tr ti n, CCC: chu k luân chuy n ti n, CR: t s thanh toán hi n th i, CTR: t tr ng tài s n ng n h n trong t ng tài s n, SIZE: quy mô doanh nghi p, FL: đòn b y tài chính, SP: t l s h u nhà n c, FC: hi u ng lây nhi m tài chính.
Ph l c 2: K t qu mô hình h i quy FEM
Mô hình 3.1 Mô hình 3.2 Mô hình 3.3 Mô hình 3.4 ACP - 0.00156*** AIP - 0.00074*** APP - 0.00131*** CCC - 0.00091*** CR 0.0396 - 0.00149 0.00168 0.02031 CTR 0.35066*** 0.28355** 0.20246 0.39356*** SIZE - 0.00841 - 0.06076* - 0.01698 - 0.06798** FL 0.01039 0.01297 0.00761 0.0159** SP 0.89348*** 1.12808*** 1.16677*** 0.95823*** FC - 0.02086 - 0.04159 - 0.02305 - 0.04904* cons - 0.12571 1.28385 0.11163 1.48141* Ký hi u ***,**,* ch ra m i t ng quan có ý ngha th ng kê t i các m c ý ngha 1%, 5% và 10%. ROE: su t sinh l i trên v n ch s h u, ACP: th i gian thu ti n, AIP: th i gian t n kho, APP: th i gian tr ti n, CCC: chu k luân chuy n ti n, CR: t s thanh toán hi n th i, CTR: t tr ng tài s n ng n h n trong t ng tài s n, SIZE: quy mô doanh nghi p, FL: đòn b y tài chính, SP: t l s h u nhà n c, FC: hi u ng lây nhi m tài chính.
PH L C 3: MÔ HÌNH H I QUY 3.1 V I ACP LÀ BI N C L P CHÍNH
Ph l c 3.1: Mô hình h i quy FEM
Gi thi t:
H0: Mô hình Pool phù h p h n
H1: Mô hình FEM phù h p h n
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, dùng FEM t t h n dùng Pool
Ph l c 3.2: Ki m đ nh hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
F t est t hat al l u_i =0: F( 22, 85) = 3. 87 Pr ob > F = 0. 0000 r ho . 76491372 ( f r act i on of var i ance due t o u_i )
si gma_e . 08521053 si gma_u . 15370424 _cons - . 1257082 . 8554378 - 0. 15 0. 884 - 1. 826548 1. 575131 FC - . 02086 . 024949 - 0. 84 0. 405 - . 0704654 . 0287453 SP . 8934807 . 3118382 2. 87 0. 005 . 273463 1. 513499 FL . 0103883 . 0077901 1. 33 0. 186 - . 0051004 . 0258771 SI ZE - . 0084076 . 0303996 - 0. 28 0. 783 - . 06885 . 0520349 CTR . 3506611 . 1336218 2. 62 0. 010 . 0849852 . 616337 CR . 0395982 . 0475048 0. 83 0. 407 - . 054854 . 1340505 ACP - . 0015572 . 0002592 - 6. 01 0. 000 - . 0020726 - . 0010417 ROE Coef . St d. Er r . t P>| t | [ 95% Conf . I nt er val ] cor r ( u_i , Xb) = - 0. 8515 Pr ob > F = 0. 0000 F( 7, 85) = 8. 41 over al l = 0. 2543 max = 5 bet ween = 0. 3249 avg = 5. 0 R- sq: wi t hi n = 0. 4091 Obs per gr oup: mi n = 5 Gr oup var i abl e: FI RM Number of gr oups = 23 Fi xed- ef f ect s ( wi t hi n) r egr essi on Number of obs = 115
Pr ob>chi 2 = 0. 0000 chi 2 ( 23) = 551. 59
H0: si gma( i ) ^2 = si gma^2 f or al l i i n f i xed ef f ect r egr essi on model
Gi thi t:
H0: Ph ng sai không đ i
H1: Có hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, có hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
Ph l c 3.3: Ki m đ nh hi n t ng t t ng quan
Gi thi t:
H0: Không có t t ng quan b c 1 H1: Có t t ng quan b c 1
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0.0035 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, có t t ng quan b c 1.
Pr ob > F = 0. 0035 F( 1, 22) = 10. 685 H0: no f i r st or der aut ocor r el at i on
Ph l c 3.4: Kh c ph c hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i, t t ng quan và n i sinh
thông qua ph ng pháp GMM
Di f f er ence ( nul l H = exogenous) : chi 2( 5) = 4. 49 Pr ob > chi 2 = 0. 481 Sar gan t est excl udi ng gr oup: chi 2( 3) = 3. 87 Pr ob > chi 2 = 0. 276 i v( CR CTR SI ZE FL SP FC)
Di f f er ence ( nul l H = exogenous) : chi 2( 4) = 0. 89 Pr ob > chi 2 = 0. 926 Sar gan t est excl udi ng gr oup: chi 2( 4) = 7. 47 Pr ob > chi 2 = 0. 113 GMM i nst r ument s f or l evel s
Di f f er ence- i n- Sar gan t est s of exogenei t y of i nst r ument subset s: ( Not r obust , but not weakened by many i nst r ument s. )
Sar gan t est of over i d. r est r i ct i ons: chi 2( 8) = 8. 36 Pr ob > chi 2 = 0. 399
Ar el l ano- Bond t est f or AR( 2) i n f i r st di f f er ences: z = - 0. 54 Pr > z = 0. 587 Ar el l ano- Bond t est f or AR( 1) i n f i r st di f f er ences: z = - 1. 93 Pr > z = 0. 054
D. ( L2. ROE L2. ACP) GMM- t ype ( mi ssi ng=0, separ at e i nst r ument s f or each per i od unl ess col l apsed) _cons CR CTR SI ZE FL SP FC St andar d I nst r ument s f or l evel s equat i on L( 1/ 4) . ( L2. ROE L2. ACP) GMM- t ype ( mi ssi ng=0, separ at e i nst r ument s f or each per i od unl ess col l apsed) D. ( CR CTR SI ZE FL SP FC) St andar d I nst r ument s f or f i r st di f f er ences equat i on _cons - . 3490306 . 3965212 - 0. 88 0. 381 - 1. 137556 . 4394953 SP . 081041 . 0814134 1. 00 0. 322 - . 0808585 . 2429405 FL . 0105346 . 005763 1. 83 0. 071 - . 0009258 . 021995 SI ZE . 0137087 . 014188 0. 97 0. 337 - . 0145057 . 0419231 CTR . 1109627 . 0807699 1. 37 0. 173 - . 0496571 . 2715824 CR - . 0146604 . 0515209 - 0. 28 0. 777 - . 1171154 . 0877945 ACP - . 0010295 . 0004735 - 2. 17 0. 033 - . 001971 - . 0000879 L1. . 6454229 . 230166 2. 80 0. 006 . 1877125 1. 103133 ROE
ROE Coef . St d. Er r . t P>| t | [ 95% Conf . I nt er val ]
Pr ob > F = 0. 000 max = 4
F( 7, 84) = 10. 01 avg = 4. 00 Number of i nst r ument s = 16 Obs per gr oup: mi n = 4
Ti me var i abl e : YEAR Number of gr oups = 23
Gr oup var i abl e: FI RM Number of obs = 92
Dynami c panel - dat a est i mat i on, one- st ep syst em GMM
PH L C 4: MÔ HÌNH H I QUY 3.2 V I AIP LÀ BI N C L P CHÍNH
Ph l c 4.1: Mô hình h i quy FEM
Gi thi t:
H0: Mô hình Pool phù h p h n
H1: Mô hình FEM phù h p h n
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, dùng FEM t t h n dùng Pool
Ph l c 4.2: Ki m đ nh hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
F t est t hat al l u_i =0: F( 22, 85) = 4. 27 Pr ob > F = 0. 0000 r ho . 80652529 ( f r act i on of var i ance due t o u_i )
si gma_e . 08836544 si gma_u . 18041777 _cons 1. 283846 . 9481258 1. 35 0. 179 - . 6012825 3. 168974 FC - . 0415891 . 0273737 - 1. 52 0. 132 - . 0960153 . 012837 SP 1. 128078 . 319795 3. 53 0. 001 . 4922401 1. 763916 FL . 0129679 . 0081398 1. 59 0. 115 - . 0032163 . 0291521 SI ZE - . 0607638 . 0337391 - 1. 80 0. 075 - . 1278462 . 0063186 CTR . 2835462 . 1366388 2. 08 0. 041 . 0118717 . 5552207 CR - . 0014936 . 0487577 - 0. 03 0. 976 - . 0984371 . 0954498 AI P - . 0007435 . 0001416 - 5. 25 0. 000 - . 001025 - . 0004621 ROE Coef . St d. Er r . t P>| t | [ 95% Conf . I nt er val ] cor r ( u_i , Xb) = - 0. 8780 Pr ob > F = 0. 0000 F( 7, 85) = 6. 96 over al l = 0. 1690 max = 5 bet ween = 0. 2081 avg = 5. 0 R- sq: wi t hi n = 0. 3645 Obs per gr oup: mi n = 5 Gr oup var i abl e: FI RM Number of gr oups = 23 Fi xed- ef f ect s ( wi t hi n) r egr essi on Number of obs = 115
Pr ob>chi 2 = 0. 0000 chi 2 ( 23) = 1193. 39
H0: si gma( i ) ^2 = si gma^2 f or al l i i n f i xed ef f ect r egr essi on model
Gi thi t:
H0: Ph ng sai không đ i
H1: Có hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, có hi n t ng ph ng sai thay đ i
Ph l c 4.3: Ki m đ nh hi n t ng t t ng quan
Gi thi t:
H0: Không có t t ng quan b c 1 H1: Có t t ng quan b c 1
Theo b ng trên, Prob= 0 < nên bác b gi thi t H0, có t t ng quan b c 1.
Pr ob > F = 0. 0000 F( 1, 22) = 42. 754 H0: no f i r st or der aut ocor r el at i on
