C. Xác định tổng lợi ích Xã hội ròng (B) phơng án 1:
3. Ước lợng hàm chi phí ô nhiễm môi trờng cận biên (MEC1):
3.1. Ước lợng hàm tổng chi phí thiệt hại môi trờng (TC1): Kết quả Mfit cho thấy:
OBS. TWTA1 Q1 BPQ1 LPQ1 INPT2002 2.91E+09 116895.2 1.37E+10 1.60E+15 1.0000 2002 2.91E+09 116895.2 1.37E+10 1.60E+15 1.0000 2003 3.05E+09 132675.8 1.76E+10 2.34E+15 1.0000 2004 3.19E+09 149723.5 2.24E+10 3.36E+15 1.0000 2005 3.34E+09 168253.6 2.83E+10 4.76E+15 1.0000 2006 3.50E+09 188266.2 3.54E+10 6.67E+15 1.0000
2007 3.67E+09 209761.2 4.40E+10 9.23E+15 1.00002008 3.84E+09 233035.0 5.43E+10 1.27E+16 1.0000 2008 3.84E+09 233035.0 5.43E+10 1.27E+16 1.0000 2009 4.02E+09 258087.8 6.66E+10 1.72E+16 1.0000 2010 4.21E+09 285364.1 8.14E+10 2.32E+16 1.0000 2011 4.40E+09 296334.0 8.78E+10 2.60E+16 1.0000 2012 4.61E+09 307600.3 9.46E+10 2.91E+16 1.0000 2013 4.83E+09 319014.8 1.02E+11 3.25E+16 1.0000 2014 5.06E+09 328354.0 1.08E+11 3.54E+16 1.0000 2015 5.29E+09 342436.9 1.17E+11 4.02E+16 1.0000 2016 5.54E+09 352369.1 1.24E+11 4.38E+16 1.0000 2017 5.80E+09 367045.0 1.35E+11 4.94E+16 1.0000 2018 6.08E+09 377570.1 1.43E+11 5.38E+16 1.0000 2019 6.36E+09 393283.6 1.55E+11 6.08E+16 1.0000 2020 6.66E+09 409441.9 1.68E+11 6.86E+16 1.0000
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is TWTA1
19 observations used for estimation from 2002 to 2020
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob] BPQ1 .036691 .0032956 11.1331[.000] Q1 -6944.0 1743.0 -3.9840[.001] INPT 3.38E+09 2.11E+08 15.9742[.000] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .99360 F-statistic F( 2, 16) 1242.6[.000] R-Bar-Squared .99280 S.E. of Regression 9.90E+07 Residual Sum of Squares 1.57E+17 Mean of Dependent Variable 4.55E+09 S.D. of Dependent Variable 1.17E+09 Maximum of Log-likelihood -375.1357 DW-statistic .54412
*******************************************************************************
Diagnostic Tests
******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version * ******************************************************************************* * * * *
* A:Serial Correlation *CHI-SQ( 1)= 8.1656[.004]*F( 1, 15)= 11.3051[.004]* * * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHI-SQ( 1)= 5.4663[.019]*F( 1, 15)= 6.0586[.026]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHI-SQ( 2)= 1.0325[.597]* Not applicable * * * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity *CHI-SQ( 1)= 3.4139[.065]*F( 1, 17)= 3.7236[.071]* *******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values Bảng OLS cho kết quả ớc lợng hàm TEC1:
TEC1 = 0.036691Q2 - 6944.0Q + 3.38E+093.2. Ước lợng hàm MEC1: 3.2. Ước lợng hàm MEC1: MEC1 = TEC1'. MEC1 = 0.08Q - 6944. 4. Ước lợng hàm MSC1: MSC1 = MC1 + MEC1 MC1 = 0.2Q + 147386.1 MEC1 = 0.08Q - 6944 Suy ra: MSC1 = 0.28Q + 140 442 5. Xác định lợi ích Xã hội ròng (B1): 5.1. Lợi ích XH ròng từ đờng AWTP và MSC1 (B11): Với khối lợng rác năm 2003 đợc xử lý tại bãi NS:
Q1 = 226 385.8 tấn rác (khối lợng đợc giữ nguyên nh khi cha phân loại). AWTP = 238 095 đ/tấn rác. Kết quả tính toán: B11 = 14 932 178 266 5.2. Lợi ích XH ròng (B1): B1 = B11 - Thu nhập của ngời đồng nát
+ Thu nhập của URENCO do thu đợc rác thải tái chế
+ Chi phí cơ hội việc làm của ngời đồng nát B1 = 14 932 178 266 -12 045 000 000 + 12 045 000 000 + 37 366 875 000 B1 = 52 299 053 266 đồng MSC1 AWTP=238 095 140 442 P/Tấn rác Tấn rác 0 Đồ thị minh hoạ Q=226385.8 B11
B. Lợi ích XH ròng từ hoạt động thu gom, vận chuyển và chế biến rác tại XNphân Compost Cầu Diễn (B2): phân Compost Cầu Diễn (B2):
1. Ước lợng hàm cung sản xuất (MC2):
1.1. Ước lợng hàm tổng chi phí sản xuất (TC2): Kết quả tính toán của Mfit:
OBS. C2 Q2 BPQ2 INPT1998 6.77E+08 60228.7 3.63E+09 1.0000 1998 6.77E+08 60228.7 3.63E+09 1.0000 1999 7.68E+08 77728.3 6.04E+09 1.0000 2000 1.00E+09 111329.1 1.24E+10 1.0000 2001 1.20E+09 128620.8 1.65E+10 1.0000 2002 9.43E+08 84578.8 7.15E+09 1.0000 2003 1.03E+09 95996.7 9.22E+09 1.0000 2004 1.12E+09 108331.5 1.17E+10 1.0000 2005 1.22E+09 121738.9 1.48E+10 1.0000 2006 1.32E+09 136218.8 1.86E+10 1.0000 2007 1.43E+09 151771.3 2.30E+10 1.0000 2008 1.54E+09 168611.0 2.84E+10 1.0000 2009 1.66E+09 186737.7 3.49E+10 1.0000 2010 1.78E+09 206473.4 4.26E+10 1.0000 2011 1.85E+09 214410.5 4.60E+10 1.0000 2012 1.93E+09 222562.2 4.95E+10 1.0000 2013 2.00E+09 230821.1 5.33E+10 1.0000 2014 2.07E+09 237578.5 5.64E+10 1.0000 2015 2.16E+09 247954.4 6.15E+10 1.0000 2016 2.23E+09 254954.4 6.50E+10 1.0000 2017 2.31E+09 265573.0 7.05E+10 1.0000 2018 2.39E+09 273188.4 7.46E+10 1.0000 2019 2.48E+09 284557.9 8.10E+10 1.0000 2020 2.57E+09 296249.1 8.78E+10 1.0000
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is C2
23 observations used for estimation from 1998 to 2020
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob] BPQ2 .0023986 .0020793 1.1536[.262] Q2 6967.0 755.1038 9.2266[.000] INPT 2.85E+08 6.07E+07 4.7040[.000] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .99532 F-statistic F( 2, 20) 2128.0[.000] R-Bar-Squared .99486 S.E. of Regression 4.16E+07
Residual Sum of Squares 3.46E+16 Mean of Dependent Variable 1.64E+09 S.D. of Dependent Variable 5.79E+08 Maximum of Log-likelihood -434.5129 DW-statistic .42199
Diagnostic Tests
******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version * ******************************************************************************* * * * *
* A:Serial Correlation *CHI-SQ( 1)= 13.6508[.000]*F( 1, 19)= 27.7419[.000]* * * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHI-SQ( 1)= 3.5346[.060]*F( 1, 19)= 3.4501[.079]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHI-SQ( 2)= .80974[.667]* Not applicable * * * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity *CHI-SQ( 1)= 9.1784[.002]*F( 1, 21)= 13.9453[.001]* *******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values
Bảng OLS cho ta kết quả ớc lợng hàm TC2:
TC2 = 0.0023986 Q2 + 6967.0 Q + 2.85E+08
1.2. Ước lợng hàm MC2: MC2 = TC2'
MC2 = 0.004Q + 6967