G II PHÁP NÂN CAO LI NHU NC AăCÁCăNÂNăHĨNăTH NăM
3.4.4. Phòng nga ri ro lãi s ut
Duy trì s cơnăđ i các kho n nh y c m v i lãi su t bên tài s n n v i tài s n có.
S d ng chính sách lãi su t linh ho t,ăđ c bi tăđ i v i nh ng kho n vay l n, th i h n dài c n tìm ki m ngu n v năt ngăx ng, ho c th c hi năc ăch lãi su t th n i.
S d ng các công c tài chính m iăđ h n ch r i ro ngo i b ng,ănh ăs d ng các nghi p v k h n v lãi su t, nghi p v k h n v ti n g i, nghi p v k h n v lãi su t ti n vay, th c hi n h păđ ngăt ngălaiădoăkhôngăcơnăx ng tài s n n và tài s n có; th c hi n nghi p v hoánăđ i lãi su t, quy n ch n lãi su t.
TÓM T TăCH NGă3
D a trên nh ng k t qu nghiên c uăđ tăđ c ch ngă2,ăch ngă3ăđƣăđ aăraăcácă
gi i pháp nh m nâng cao l i nhu n c aăcácăNHTM;ătrongăđó,ăNhƠăn c, Chính ph và
NgơnăhƠngăNhƠăn c c n có nh ng chínhăsáchăgiúpăt ngătr ng kinh t , ki m ch l m phát, t oăđi u ki n thu n l iăchoăcácăngƠnhăkinhădoanhătrongăđóăcóăngƠnhăngơnăhƠngă đ c ho tăđ ng hi u qu .
V phía các NHTM, các ngân hàng c n phát tri n các d ch v ngân hàng hi năđ i, phát tri n các ho tăđ ng kinh doanh khác nh m t o nên nh ng ngu năthuăđaăd ng cho ngân hàng, tránh s l thu c quá l n vào ho tăđ ng tín d ng ậ m t ho tăđ ng v n ch a
đ ng r t nhi u r i ro. Các ngân hàng c nătínhătoán,ăc ăc u l i danh m c cho vay c a mình, ch đ ng xây d ng h th ng x p h ng tín d ng n i b k t h p v i h th ng x p h ng tài s năđ m b oăđ gi m thi uăđ n m c th p nh t r i ro tín d ng có th x y ra.
T ngăquyămôătƠiăs n, thu hút ti n g i c a khách hàng, th c hi n các bi n pháp h n ch r i ro thanh kho n, r i ro lãi su t, r iăroăconăng i...là nh ng gi i pháp giúp các ngân hàng th ngăm i có m t n n t ng tài chính v ng m nh,ălƠmăt ngăl i nhu n c a ngân hàng.
H N CH C Aă TÀI
Bên c nh nh ng k t qu đƣăđ tăđ c, nghiên c u còn có nh ng h n ch sau: 1) đ m b o tính xác th c c a s li uăliênăquanăđ n các ngân hàng, tác gi ch ch n 8 NHTM có niêm y t trên sàn ch ng khoán t n mă2007ăđ năn mă2012. Th i gian có th ch aăđ dài, 8 NHTM có th ch aăđ i di n cho t ng th các NHTM Vi t Nam, nên có th ch aăth yăđ c s tácăđ ng c a các nhân t t i l i nhu n c a các NHTM Vi t Nam m tăcáchăđ yăđ .
2) Nhi u nhân t có kh n ngă nhăh ngăđ n l i nhu n c aăcácăNHTMănh :ăr i ro thanh kho n, r i ro tín d ng, chính sách lãi su t, t giá h iăđoái, t căđ cung ti n, s phát tri n c a th tr ng ch ng khoán...ch aăđ c nghiên c u trong mô hình.
Nh ng h n ch c aăđ tƠiăđƣăm raăh ng nghiên c u ti p theo là nghiên c u l i nhu n c a các ngân hàng trong th iăgianădƠiăh n,ăb sung các y u t còn thi uănh ăđƣă
K T LU N
Lu năv năth căs ăắPhơnătíchăcácănhơnăt nhăh ngăđ n l i nhu n c a các ngân
hƠngăth ngăm i niêm y t t i Vi tăNam”,ăs d ng d li u t 8ăngơnăhƠngăth ngăm i trong kho ng th i gian t n mă2007ăđ năn mă2012ăb ng k thu t h i quy b ng (panel
regression)ăđƣăxácăđ nhăđ c các nhân t nhăh ngăđ n l i nhu n c a các ngân hàng
th ngăm i bao g m: quy mô ngân hàng, thu nh p lãi thu n, thu nh p ngoài lãi thu n, t căđ t ngătr ng kinh t và t l l m phát. Các nhân t nƠyăđ u có m iăt ngăquană d ngăv i l i nhu n c aăngơnăhƠng.ă i uănƠyăcóăngh aălƠăkhiăcácănhơnăt nƠyăt ngălênă
1% thì l i nhu n c aăngơnăhƠngăc ngăt ngălênăx%ăt ngă ng.
Xét trên m căđ nhăh ng c a các y u t k trênăđ n l i nhu n c a các ngân
hƠngăth ngăm i niêm y t t i Vi t Nam thì t l thu nh p ngoài lãi thu năcóătácăđ ng m nh nh t và y u t quyămôăngơnăhƠngăcóătácăđ ng ít nh t. Các y u t bên ngoài thu c
môiătr ng kinh t v ămôăbaoăg m t căđ t ngătr ng kinh t và t l l măphátăc ngăcóă nhăh ng không nh đ n l i nhu n c aăcácăngơnăhƠngăth ngăm i.
Nghiên c uăc ngăch ra r ng mô hình Fixed Effect (FEM) bao g m c các y u t bên trong và các y u t bên ngoài là mô hình phù h p nh t trong vi c nghiên c u các y u t nhăh ngăđ n l i nhu n c a các ngân hƠngăth ngăm i niêm y t t i Vi t Nam. D a vào k t qu nghiên c u, lu năv năđƣăđ aăraănh ng ki n ngh đ i v i Chính ph ,
NhƠăn căvƠăNgơnăhƠngăNhƠăn căc ngănh ăđ i v iăcácăngơnăhƠngăth ngăm i nh m nâng cao l i nhu n c aăcácăngơnăhƠngăth ngăm i niêm y t t i Vi tăNam,ăđ m b o cho s phát tri n lành m nh và b n v ng c a h th ng tài chính qu c gia.
TÀI LI U THAM KH O
1. ThS.ă Ph mă Tríă Caoă &ă ThSă V ă Minhă Chơu,ă 2006.ăKinh t l ng ng d ng.
TP.HCM:ăNXBăLaoăđ ngăXƣăh i.
2. PGS.ăTS.ăTr măTh ăXuơnăH ng,ăThs.ăHoƠngăTh ăMinhăNg c,ă2012. Giáo trình
nghi p v ngân hàng th ng m i. NXBăKinhăt ăTP.HCM
3. PGS.ăTSăTr năNg căTh , 2005. Tài chính doanh nghi p hi n đ i. NXBăTh ngă
Kê.
4. Abdullah, Z.(1985). A Critical Review Of The Impact Of ATMs In Malaysia.
Banker’s Journal Malaysia, Vol.28, Pages 13-16.
5. Abreu, M. and Mendes, V. (2001). Commercial bank interest margins and profitability: Evidence for some EU countries.
6. Allen N. Berger (1995). The Relationship Between Capital And Earnings In Banking. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.27, No.2, pages 432-456. 7. Angbazo L. (1997). Commercial Bank Net Interest Margins, Default Risk,
Interest-Rate Risk and Off-balance Sheet Banking. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.21, pages 55-87.
8. Anna P.I.Vong & Hoi Si Chan (2009). Determinants of Bank Profitability in Macau. Macau Monetary Research Bulletin, Vol.12, pages 93-113.
9. Alper, D. and Anbar A. (2011). Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Commercial banks Profitability: Emperical Evidence from Turkey. Business and Economic Research Journal, Vol.2, No. 2.
10. Badola, B.S. and Verma R. (2002). Determinants of Profitability of Banks in India - A multivariate analysis. Delhi Business Review, Vol.7, No.2
11. Balachandher K.Guru, J.Staunton and B.Shanmugam (2002). Determinants Of Commercial Bank Profitability In Malaysia. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, pages 69-82
12. Bashir, A.(2000). Determinants Of Profitability and Rates Of Return Margins In Islamic Banks: Some Evidence From The Middle East. Grambling State University, Mimeo.
13. Barajas, A., Steiner, R. and Salazar, N. (1999). Interest spreads in banking in Colombia. IMF Staff Papers, pages 196-224
14. Bóbácová, I.V (2003). Raising The Profitability Of Commercial Banks. BIATEC, Vol.XI, pages 21-25.
15. Bikker, J. and H. Hu (2002). Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements. BNL Quarterly Review 221, pages 143-175.
16. Bourke, P. (1989). Concentration And Other Determinants Of Bank Profitability In Europe, North America And Australia. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.13, pages 65-79.
17. Daniel, E. and Storey, C.(1997). On-line Banking: Strategic and Management Challenges. Long Range Planning, Vol.30, No.6, Pages 890-898.
18. Demirguc ậ Kunt, A. and H. Huizinga (1999). Determinants Of Commercial Bank Interest Margins And Profitability: Some International Evidence. World Bank Economic Review, Vol.13, pages 379-408.
19. Dietrict, A. and Wanzenried, G. (2011). Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
20. Fadzlan Sufian & Royfaizal Razali Chong (2008). Determinants Of Bank Profitability In A Developing Economy: Empirical Evidences From The Philippines. Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Financial, Vol.4, No.2, pages 91-112.
21. Fazlan Sufian (2011). Profitability of Korean Banking Sector: Panel Evidence On Bank- Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants. Journal of Economics and Management, Vol.7, No.1, pages 43-72.
22. Gerlach, S., W.Peng, C.Shu (2004). Maceconomic Conditions And Banking Performance In Hong Kong: A Panel Data Study. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Research Memorandum, April.
23. Guorong Jiang, Nancy Tang, Eve Law and Angela Sze (2003). Determinants Of Bank Profitability In Hong Kong. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, September 2003.
24. Gul, S., Irshad, F. and Zaman K. (2011). Factors Affecting Bank Profitability in Pakistan. The Romanian Economic Journal.
25. Gupta, M.(1998). Strategic Implications Of Technology On Operations Of The Banking Industry. Production and Inventory Management Journal, Second Quarter, Pages 1-5.
26. Hassan, M.K & Bashir, A.H.M (2003). Determinants of Islamic Banking Profitability. Paper presented at the 10th ERF Annual Conference, Morocco, 16- 18 December.
27. Heffernan, S. and Fu, M. (2008). The Determinants of Bank Performance in China. Available at SSRN: <http://ssrn.com/abstract=1247713>
28. Katagiri, T.(1989). ATMs In Japan. Bank Administration, Vol.65, No.2, Pages 16-19.
29. Ken Holden & Magdi El-Banany (2004). Investment In Information Technology Systems And Determinants Of Bank Profitability In The UK. Taylor and Fracis Journals, Vol.14, pages 361-365.
30. Kennedy, P. (2008). A Guide to Econometrics. Malden, Mass, Blackwell Publishing.
31. Kosmidou, K. (2008). The Determinantsă ofă Banks’ă Profitsă ină Greecă duringă theă
Period of EU Financial Intergration. Managerial Finance, No.34, Pages 146-159. 32. Linda Allen & Anoop Rai (1996). Operational Efficiency In Banking: An
International Comparison. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.20, pages 655- 672.
33. Mamatzakis, E. and Remoundos, P. (2003). Determinants of Greek Commercial Banks Profitability. Spoudai, Vol.53, pages 84-94
34. Molyneux, P. and J. Thornton (1992). Determinants Of European Bank Profitability: A Note. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.16, pages 1173-1178. 35. Nier, E.(2000). The Profitability Of Banks: A Cross-Country Study With A
Particular Focus On UK Banks. Paper Presented at 12th annual Australian Finance and Banking Conference.
36. Ogowewa, T.I. and Uche, C. (2006). (Mis)using Bank Share Capital As A Regulatory Tool To Force Bank Consolidations In Nigeria. Journal of African Law, Vol.50, No.2, Pages 161-186.
37. Ogunleye, R.W (1995). Monetaryă Policyă Influencesă Onă Banks’Profitability:ă
Evidence From Single ậ Equation Approach. NDIC Quarterly, Vol.5, No.4, Pages 48-66.
38. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou, Sophocles N.Brissimis, Matthaios D.Delis (2008). Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific And Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Vol. 18, Pages 121-136
39. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou , Matthaios D.Delis, Christos K. Staikouras (2006). Determinants of Bank Profitability In The South Eastern European Region. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.10274, pages 1-32.
40. Pasiouras, F., & Kosmoudo, K. (2007). Factor influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign comercial banks in the European Union. Research in International Business and Finance , No.21, Pages 222-237.
41. Porter, M. and Millar, V.(1985). How Information Gives You Competitive Advantage. Harvard Business Review, July/August, Pages 140-160.
42. Rivard, R.J & Thomas, C.R(1997). The Effect Of Interstate Banking On Large Banking Holding Company Profitability And Risk. Journal of Economics and Business, Vol.49, pages 61-76.
43. Samy Ben Naceur and Mohammed Omran (2008). The Effect Of Bank Regulations, Competion And Financial Reforms OnăMENAăBank’săProfitability.ă
Economic Research Forum (ERF), No.449.
44. Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied (2008). The Determinants Of Commercial Bank Interest Margin And Profitability: Evidence from Tunisia. Frontiers in Finance and Economics, Vol.5, No.1, pages 106-130.
45. Samy Ben Naceur (2003). The Determinants Of The Tunisian Banking Industry Profitability: Panel Evidence. Paper retrieved on April, 8, 2005, from <http://www.mafhoum.com/press6/174E11.pdf>
46. Samy Ben Naceur & Mohamed Goaied (2001). The Determinants Of The Tunisiană Deposită Banks’ă Performance.ăApplied Financial Economics, Vol.11, No.3, pages 317-319.
47. Sasrosuwito, S dan Suzuki, Y. (2011). Past crisis Indonesian Banking System Profitability: Bank-specific, Industry-specific and Macroeconomic Determinants. The 2nd International Research Symposium in Service Management, pages 588- 597
48. Shawkey, B.(1995). Update Products ATMs: The Right Time To Buy?. Credit Union Magazin (USA), Vol.61, No.2, Pages 29-32.
49. Short, B.(1979). The Relationship Between Commercial Bank Profit Rates And Banking Concentration in Canada, Western Europe And Japan. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol.3, Pages 209-219.
50. Spathis, C., K. Kosmidou and M. Doumpos (2002). Assessing Profitability Factors in the Greek Banking System: A Multicriteria Methodology. International Transactions in Operational Reseach, No.9, Pages 517-530.
51. Staikouras, C., Mamatzakis, E., Koutsomanoli ậ Filippaki, A. (2008). An Empirical Investigation of Operating Performance In The New European Banking Landscape. Global Financial Journal, No.19, Pages 32-45.
52. Steven Fries, Damien Neven, Paul Seabright (2002). Bank Performance In Transition Economies. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Working Paper, No.76.
53. Sudin Haron (2004). Determinants of Islamic Bank Profitability. Global Journal of Finance and Economics.USA, Vol.1, No.1, pages 2-18.
54. Sufian, F. and Habibullad, M. S. (2009). Bank Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Emprical Evidence From The China Banking Sector. Frontiers of Economics in China, Vol 4, No 2, Pages 274-291
55. Uche, C.U. (1996). The Nigerian Failed Banks Decree: A Critique. Journal of International Banking Law, Vol.11, No.10, Pages 436-441.
56. Uhomoibhi Toni Aburime (2008). Determinants Of Bank Profitability: Company - Level Evidence From Nigeria. Social Science Research Network, Working Paper Series.
57. Valentina Flamini, Calvin A. McDonald, Liliana B.Schumacher (2009). The Determinants Of Bank Profitability In Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF Working Paper, No.09/15.
58. Cácăwebsiteăthamăkh o: http://www.worldbank.org/ http://tailieu.vn/ http://svnhforum.com/ http://www.voer.edu.vn/ http://www.baomoi.com/ http://www.vietinbank.vn/ http:// www.dddn.com/ http://www.doanhnhan360.com/ http://www.vnba.org.vn/ http://www.vnecon.vn/ http://tamnhin.net/ http://vfpress.vn/ http://thismatter.com/
PH L C
Ph l c 1. B c ăs d li u c a cácăngơnăhƠngăđ c s d ng trong nghiên c u
năv tính: tri uăđ ng
Ngân hàng N m L i nhu n sau thu T ng tài s n V n ch s h u D ăn cho vay S d ti n g i Thu nh p lãi thu n Thu nh p ngoài lãi thu n ACB 2007 1,760,008 85,391,681 6,257,849 31,676,320 55,283,104 1,311,106 1,709,716 ACB 2008 2,210,682 105,306,130 7,766,468 34,604,077 64,216,949 2,728,257 1,511,219 ACB 2009 2,201,204 167,881,047 10,106,287 61,855,984 86,919,196 2,800,528 2,134,542 ACB 2010 2,334,794 205,102,950 11,376,757 86,478,408 106,936,611 4,163,770 1,325,908 ACB 2011 3,207,841 281,019,319 11,959,092 101,822,720 142,218,091 6,607,558 1,038,977 ACB 2012 784,040 176,307,607 12,624,452 101,312,766 125,233,595 6,870,928 -1,036,200 EIB 2007 463,417 33,710,424 6,294,943 18,378,610 22,906,123 684,629 331,973 EIB 2008 711,014 48,247,821 12,844,077 20,855,907 30,877,730 1,319,712 572,335 EIB 2009 1,132,463 65,448,356 13,353,319 38,003,086 38,766,465 1,975,308 601,427 EIB 2010 1,814,639 131,110,882 13,510,740 61,717,617 58,150,665 2,882,935 786,685 EIB 2011 3,038,864 183,567,032 16,302,520 74,044,518 53,652,639 5,303,626 933,481 EIB 2012 2,138,655 170,156,010 15,812,205 74,315,952 70,458,310 4,901,459 485,802 NVS 2007 74,733 9,903,074 579,028 4,357,351 6,140,135 75,772 138,554 NVS 2008 57,145 10,905,279 1,076,158 5,452,617 6,021,861 212,379 58,370 NVS 2009 142,416 18,689,953 1,166,039 9,864,203 9,629,727 286,954 185,511 NVS 2010 158,563 20,015,059 2,021,303 10,638,936 10,721,302 489,180 38,398 NVS 2011 165,552 22,494,619 3,214,893 12,755,542 14,822,283 738,989 -54,231
NVS 2012 2,398 21,584,048 3,184,140 12,667,122 12,272,866 731,703 10,464 STB 2007 1,397,897 64,572,875 7,349,659 35,200,574 44,231,944 1,151,872 1,289,711 STB 2008 954,753 68,438,569 7,758,624 34,757,119 46,128,820 1,146,668 1,307,291 STB 2009 1,670,559 104,019,144 10,546,760 59,141,487 60,516,273 2,302,935 1,793,192 STB 2010 1,798,560 141,798,738 13,633,109 76,617,039 78,858,295 3,209,790 1,403,283 STB 2011 2,033,185 140,136,974 14,224,098 77,669,353 74,799,927 5,495,648 1,015,373 STB 2012 1,002,370 152,118,525 13,698,739 94,887,813 107,458,698 6,497,179 356,173 SHB 2007 126,889 12,367,441 2,178,409 4,175,420 2,804,869 89,462 172,876 SHB 2008 194,770 14,381,310 2,266,655 6,227,158 9,508,142 160,800 316,987 SHB 2009 318,405 27,469,197 2,417,045 12,701,664 14,672,147 643,441 216,551 SHB 2010 494,329 51,032,861 4,183,214 24,103,032 25,633,644 1,216,165 269,995 SHB 2011 753,029 70,989,542 5,830,868 28,806,884 34,785,614 1,897,534 330,800 SHB 2012 1,687,269 116,537,614 9,506,050 55,689,293 77,598,520 1,875,528 1,063,928 VCB 2007 2,407,061 197,408,036 13,551,546 95,429,695 141,589,093 4,099,875 1,663,518 VCB 2008 2,728,000 222,089,520 13,945,829 108,617,623 157,067,019 3,695,245 1,799,922 VCB 2009 3,944,753 255,495,883 16,710,333 136,996,006 169,071,562 6,498,666 2,788,138 VCB 2010 4,303,042 307,621,338 20,736,729 171,241,318 204,755,949 8,195,264 3,335,554 VCB 2011 4,217,332 366,722,279 28,638,696 204,089,479 227,016,854 12,421,680 2,449,091 VCB 2012 4,427,206 414,475,073 41,553,063 235,869,977 284,414,568 10,954,093 4,154,404 CTG 2007 1,149,442 166,112,971 10,646,529 100,482,233 112,692,813 4,683,390 1,965,290 CTG 2008 1,804,464 193,590,357 12,336,159 118,601,677 121,634,466 7,189,431 1,504,822 CTG 2009 1,284,283 243,785,208 12,572,078 161,619,376 148,374,599 4,450,750 977,566 CTG 2010 3,414,347 367,712,191 18,170,363 231,434,907 205,918,705 12,089,002 2,730,400 CTG 2011 6,259,367 460,420,078 28,490,896 290,397,810 257,135,945 20,048,054 2,326,127
CTG 2012 6,169,679 503,530,259 33,624,531 329,682,838 289,105,307 18,420,024 3,541,503 MBB 2007 492,608 29,623,582 3,479,521 11,468,742 17,784,837 633,317 427,600 MBB 2008 696,205 44,346,106 4,424,064 15,493,509 27,162,881 1,420,712 217,372 MBB 2009 1,173,727 69,008,288 6,888,072 29,140,759 39,978,447 1,838,068 815,443 MBB 2010 1,745,166 109,623,197 8,882,344 48,058,250 65,740,838 3,519,103 569,096 MBB 2011 1,915,336 138,831,492 9,642,143 57,952,296 89,548,673 5,222,398 -75,268 MBB 2012 2,320,036 175,609,964 12,863,906 73,165,823 117,747,416 6,602,559 1,210,811 Ghi chú:
ACB: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN NGÂN HÀNG Á CHÂU EIB: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN EXIMBANK
NVS: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN NGÂN HÀNG NAM VI T STB: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN SACOMBANK
SHB: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN NGÂN HÀNG SÀI GÒN - HÀ N I VCB: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN VIETCOMBANK
CTG: MÃ CH NG KHOÁN VIETINBANK
Ph l c 2. K t qu ki măđnh theo Likelihood Ratio Test
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: FEM
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob.
Cross-section F 2.761718 (7,32) 0.0231
Cross-section Chi-square 22.683790 7 0.0019
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: ROA
Method: Panel Least Squares