5. Kt l un
5.3.2 Cách ng nghiên cu t ip theo
b sung vào nghiên c u này, tác gi đ xu t th c hi n m t s nghiên c u m r ng sau đây:
1. Nghiên c u v các nhân t nh h ng đ n đ l n m c đ truy n d n c a t giá h i đoái đ n các ch s giá t i Vi t Nam.
2. Nghiên c u v lý thuy t l m phát k v ng, s đóng góp c a l m phát k v ng đ n s gia t ng l m phát t i Vi t Nam và các khuy n ngh .
3. Nghiên c u v s l a ch n c ch t giá phù h p cho Vi t Nam khi Vi t Nam ngày càng h i nh p sâu r ng v i th gi i.
4. Nghiên c u s nh h ng c a hàng nh p kh u trong s n xu t và tiêu dùng, c tính t l n i đa hóa c a s n xu t trong n c
5. Các bài nghiên c u sâu r ng h n v m c đ truy n d n t giá, lãi su t hay giá nh p kh u đ n các ch s giá Vi t Nam.
DANH M C TÀI LI U THAM KH O
Tài Li u Ti ng Vi t:
- B ch Th Ph ng Th o (2011), “Truy n d n t giá h i đoái vào các ch s giá Vi t Nam giai đo n 2001 –2011”, Lu n v n th c s H Kinh T Tp.HCM. - Hoàng Ng c Nh m (2007), “Giáo trình Kinh T L ng, Nhà Xu t B n Lao
ng Xã H i”
- Nguy n Th Thu H ng, Nguy n c Thành (2011):”Các nhân t v mô quy t đnh l m phát Vi t Nam giai đo n 2000-2010: Các b ng ch ng và th o lu n”, Trung tâm nghiên c u kinh t và chính sáchVEPR- Tr ng i H c Kinh T -
i H c Qu c Gia Hà N i
- Nguy n Th Thu H ng, inh Tu n Minh, Tô Trung Thành, Lê H ng Giang, Ph m V n Hà (2010), “L a ch n chính sách t giá trong b i c nh ph c h i kinh t ”. -Trung Tâm Nghiên c u Kinh T và Chính Sách, Bài nghiên c u NC-21. - Phan Th Cúc (2008),”Di n bi n l m phát Vi t Nam và gi i pháp ki m ch
linh ho t”
- Tr n Ng c Th , Nguy n Ng c nh (2008), Tài Chính Qu c T , NXB Th ng Kê
Tài li u ti ng Anh
- Campa, M. Jose and Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou (2002), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon”, NBER Working Paper 8934.
- Dubravko Mihaljek and Marc Klau: “A Note on the Pass-Through from Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Changes to Inflation in Selected Emerging Market Economies”
- Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
- Goldfajn, Ilan and Sergio Werlang (2000) “The Passthrough from depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study,” mimeo PUCI, Rio de Janeiro
- Hahn (2003): “Pass-Through of External Shocks To Euro Area Inflation”.
- Mishkin, Frederic S. (2008), “Exchange Rate pass through and Monetary policy”, Working Paper 13889
- McCarthy, Jonathan (2000), (2006); “Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies”, Staff reports No.11, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Ito and Sato (2007), “Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through”. Michele Ca’ Zorzi, Elke Hahn and Marcelo Sánchez (2007) , “Exchange rate pass through in emerging market”, ECB working paper series No.739.
- Otani, A, S Shiratsuka and T Shirota (2003), “The decline in the exchange rate pass-through: evidence from Japanese import prices”, Monetary and Economic Studies, October, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, pp 53–81
- Taylor, John (2000), “Low Inflation, Pass-through, and the Pricing Power of Firms”, European Economic Review, Vol: 44, pp.1389-1408 .
- Võ Trí Thành (1997), “Inflation Stabilization : The Vietnamese Experience In The 1980s And 1990s”, PhD These, Australian National University
PH C L C 1: Ki m đnh tính d ng c a các bi n
1. LCPI
CPI : Level
Null Hypothesis: LCPI_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.669613 0.9900 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LCPI_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:10
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LCPI_SA(-1) 0.005712 0.008530 0.669613 0.5070 D(LCPI_SA(-1)) 0.658173 0.127255 5.172098 0.0000 C -0.019993 0.041026 -0.487329 0.6288 R-squared 0.519247 Mean dependent var 0.023124 Adjusted R-squared 0.494593 S.D. dependent var 0.018863 S.E. of regression 0.013410 Akaike info criterion -5.716832 Sum squared resid 0.007014 Schwarz criterion -5.592713 Log likelihood 123.0535 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.671338 F-statistic 21.06138 Durbin-Watson stat 1.331098 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000001
LCPI : Sai phân b遺c 1.
Null Hypothesis: D(LCPI_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.792571 0.0060 Test critical values: 1% level -3.600987
5% level -2.935001 10% level -2.605836 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LCPI_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 13:48
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q4 2011Q4
Included observations: 41 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LCPI_SA(-1)) -0.412379 0.108733 -3.792571 0.0005 D(LCPI_SA(-1),2) 0.442047 0.144321 3.062950 0.0040 C 0.009483 0.003106 3.053263 0.0041 R-squared 0.317212 Mean dependent var 0.000462 Adjusted R-squared 0.281275 S.D. dependent var 0.014419 S.E. of regression 0.012224 Akaike info criterion -5.900416 Sum squared resid 0.005679 Schwarz criterion -5.775033 Log likelihood 123.9585 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.854759 F-statistic 8.827066 Durbin-Watson stat 2.036359 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000710
2. LIMP:
LIMP: Level
Null Hypothesis: LIMP_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.095668 0.9617 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LIMP_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 14:49
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
LIMP_SA(-1) 0.003423 0.035780 0.095668 0.9243 D(LIMP_SA(-1)) 0.351127 0.160121 2.192888 0.0343 C -0.005820 0.171517 -0.033930 0.9731 R-squared 0.128352 Mean dependent var 0.015968 Adjusted R-squared 0.083653 S.D. dependent var 0.038486 S.E. of regression 0.036842 Akaike info criterion -3.695632 Sum squared resid 0.052935 Schwarz criterion -3.571513 Log likelihood 80.60827 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.650137 F-statistic 2.871426 Durbin-Watson stat 2.012303 Prob(F-statistic) 0.068651
LIMP: Sai phân bｖc 1:
Null Hypothesis: D(LIMP_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.372187 0.0012 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LIMP_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:17
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LIMP_SA(-1)) -0.643260 0.147125 -4.372187 0.0001 C 0.010579 0.006038 1.752052 0.0874 R-squared 0.323364 Mean dependent var 0.000861 Adjusted R-squared 0.306449 S.D. dependent var 0.043687 S.E. of regression 0.036382 Akaike info criterion -3.743016 Sum squared resid 0.052947 Schwarz criterion -3.660270 Log likelihood 80.60334 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.712687 F-statistic 19.11602 Durbin-Watson stat 2.015392 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000085
3. LPPI
LCPI : Level
Null Hypothesis: LPPI_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.989334 0.9958 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LPPI_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:19
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LPPI_SA(-1) 0.012112 0.012243 0.989334 0.3286 D(LPPI_SA(-1)) 0.594426 0.138419 4.294390 0.0001 C -0.049144 0.059383 -0.827576 0.4129 R-squared 0.460841 Mean dependent var 0.026615 Adjusted R-squared 0.433192 S.D. dependent var 0.028200 S.E. of regression 0.021231 Akaike info criterion -4.797999 Sum squared resid 0.017579 Schwarz criterion -4.673880 Log likelihood 103.7580 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.752504 F-statistic 16.66746 Durbin-Watson stat 1.583489 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000006
PI_Sai phân bｖc 1
Null Hypothesis: D(LPPI_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.838657 0.0615 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LPPI_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:21
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LPPI_SA(-1)) -0.332847 0.117255 -2.838657 0.0071 C 0.009440 0.004454 2.119457 0.0403 R-squared 0.167672 Mean dependent var 0.000871 Adjusted R-squared 0.146864 S.D. dependent var 0.022979 S.E. of regression 0.021225 Akaike info criterion -4.820831 Sum squared resid 0.018020 Schwarz criterion -4.738085 Log likelihood 103.2374 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.790501 F-statistic 8.057972 Durbin-Watson stat 1.616739 Prob(F-statistic) 0.007085
Vｖy LPPI dぺng の sai phân bｖc 1.
4. M2.
LM2: Level.
Null Hypothesis: LM2_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.214748 0.9284 Test critical values: 1% level -3.600987
5% level -2.935001 10% level -2.605836 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LM2_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:22
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q3
Included observations: 41 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LM2_SA(-1) -0.000959 0.004467 -0.214748 0.8311
D(LM2_SA(-1)) 0.547132 0.136142 4.018835 0.0003 C 0.040294 0.060588 0.665051 0.5100 R-squared 0.298278 Mean dependent var 0.060298 Adjusted R-squared 0.261346 S.D. dependent var 0.025988 S.E. of regression 0.022336 Akaike info criterion -4.694900 Sum squared resid 0.018958 Schwarz criterion -4.569517 Log likelihood 99.24545 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.649242 F-statistic 8.076262 Durbin-Watson stat 1.460230 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001194
LM2: Sai phân bｖc 1
Null Hypothesis: D(LM2_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.104769 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -3.605593
5% level -2.936942 10% level -2.606857 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LM2_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:24
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q4 2011Q3
Included observations: 40 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LM2_SA(-1)) -0.699666 0.137061 -5.104769 0.0000 D(LM2_SA(-1),2) 0.523878 0.146537 3.575053 0.0010 C 0.042739 0.008901 4.801722 0.0000 R-squared 0.426217 Mean dependent var 7.97E-06 Adjusted R-squared 0.395202 S.D. dependent var 0.025099 S.E. of regression 0.019519 Akaike info criterion -4.962813 Sum squared resid 0.014097 Schwarz criterion -4.836147 Log likelihood 102.2563 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.917015 F-statistic 13.74218 Durbin-Watson stat 1.831116 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000034
5. LNEER
LNEER: Level
Null Hypothesis: LNEER_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.936809 0.3129 Test critical values: 1% level -3.592462
5% level -2.931404 10% level -2.603944 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNEER_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 15:13
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q2 2011Q4
Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNEER_SA(-1) -0.163855 0.084600 -1.936809 0.0597 C 0.765784 0.394352 1.941880 0.0590 R-squared 0.083824 Mean dependent var 0.002151 Adjusted R-squared 0.061478 S.D. dependent var 0.053191 S.E. of regression 0.051530 Akaike info criterion -3.047917 Sum squared resid 0.108868 Schwarz criterion -2.966001 Log likelihood 67.53022 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.017709 F-statistic 3.751230 Durbin-Watson stat 1.559178 Prob(F-statistic) 0.059681
LNEER: Sai phân bｖc 1.
Null Hypothesis: D(LNEER_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.752038 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNEER_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 15:15
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LNEER_SA(-1)) -0.969527 0.143590 -6.752038 0.0000 C 0.005680 0.007530 0.754333 0.4551 R-squared 0.532656 Mean dependent var 0.002174 Adjusted R-squared 0.520972 S.D. dependent var 0.070341 S.E. of regression 0.048684 Akaike info criterion -3.160480 Sum squared resid 0.094806 Schwarz criterion -3.077734 Log likelihood 68.37008 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.130150 F-statistic 45.59002 Durbin-Watson stat 2.049532 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Vｖy LNEER dぺng の sai phân bｖc 1.
6. LOIL
LOIL: Level
Null Hypothesis: LOIL_SA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.208575 0.6620 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LOIL_SA) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 15:19
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LOIL_SA(-1) -0.052708 0.043612 -1.208575 0.2341 D(LOIL_SA(-1)) 0.306199 0.152981 2.001545 0.0523
C 0.231670 0.172120 1.345977 0.1861 R-squared 0.109806 Mean dependent var 0.035045 Adjusted R-squared 0.064155 S.D. dependent var 0.150419 S.E. of regression 0.145514 Akaike info criterion -0.948337 Sum squared resid 0.825801 Schwarz criterion -0.824218 Log likelihood 22.91508 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.902843 F-statistic 2.405333 Durbin-Watson stat 1.843050 Prob(F-statistic) 0.103503
LOIL: Sai phân bｖc 1
Null Hypothesis: D(LOIL_SA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.766123 0.0004 Test critical values: 1% level -3.596616
5% level -2.933158 10% level -2.604867 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LOIL_SA,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/29/12 Time: 15:17
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2011Q4
Included observations: 42 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(LOIL_SA(-1)) -0.723677 0.151838 -4.766123 0.0000 C 0.025523 0.023181 1.101063 0.2775 R-squared 0.362204 Mean dependent var 0.000585 Adjusted R-squared 0.346259 S.D. dependent var 0.181004 S.E. of regression 0.146350 Akaike info criterion -0.959188 Sum squared resid 0.856729 Schwarz criterion -0.876442 Log likelihood 22.14295 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.928858 F-statistic 22.71593 Durbin-Watson stat 1.837420 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000025
7. OUTPUT_GAP.
OUTPUT_GAP: Level.
Null Hypothesis: OUTPUT_GAP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -12.92981 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.592462
5% level -2.931404 10% level -2.603944 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(OUTPUT_GAP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 09/22/12 Time: 23:47
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q2 2011Q4
Included observations: 43 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. OUTPUT_GAP(-1) -1.601549 0.123865 -12.92981 0.0000 C 0.000163 0.001476 0.110402 0.9126 R-squared 0.803055 Mean dependent var 0.000635 Adjusted R-squared 0.798251 S.D. dependent var 0.021542 S.E. of regression 0.009676 Akaike info criterion -6.392938 Sum squared resid 0.003839 Schwarz criterion -6.311021 Log likelihood 139.4482 Hannan-Quinn criter. -6.362729 F-statistic 167.1800 Durbin-Watson stat 2.156412 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
PH L C 2: Ph n ng tích l y c a các bi n v i cú s c thay đ i 1 đ n v đ
l ch chuy n c a cú s c giá d u:
Period DGDP_GAP DLM2_SA DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA 1 0.004182 -0.004473 -0.017845 0.012808 0.009263 0.007873 (0.00104) (0.00325) (0.00537) (0.00261) (0.00202) (0.00157) 2 -0.003014 -0.014395 -0.023171 0.045447 0.021030 0.011243 (0.00232) (0.00829) (0.01208) (0.00996) (0.00585) (0.00418) 3 -0.002778 -0.036164 0.023380 0.023988 0.031343 0.018779 (0.00379) (0.01714) (0.02218) (0.02217) (0.01397) (0.00905) 4 0.001031 -0.030749 0.020927 0.078845 0.035478 0.006293 (0.00730) (0.02295) (0.02965) (0.03522) (0.02374) (0.01216) 5 -0.003889 -0.043885 0.024529 0.027359 0.027821 0.004340 (0.01176) (0.03053) (0.04591) (0.05428) (0.03559) (0.01846) 6 0.003374 -0.040288 0.056275 0.020488 0.010961 -0.003449 (0.01350) (0.03763) (0.05355) (0.10121) (0.04434) (0.01881) 7 -0.007546 -0.033354 -0.002311 0.048236 -0.000855 -0.003883 (0.01527) (0.05259) (0.06764) (0.11576) (0.04851) (0.02099) 8 0.006428 -0.053969 0.002648 -0.038611 -0.022155 -0.001712 (0.02104) (0.05474) (0.08313) (0.12473) (0.05653) (0.01903) Cholesky Ordering: DLOIL_SA DGDP_GAP DLM2_SA DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA
DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA Standard Errors: Analytic
PH L C 3: Ph n ng tích l y c a các bi n v i cú s c thay đ i 1 đ n v đ
l ch chuy n c a output_gap:
Period DLM2_SA DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA 1 -0.005983 0.009985 0.003903 -0.002604 -0.000220 (0.00313) (0.00481) (0.00210) (0.00168) (0.00127) 2 -0.007531 -0.012353 0.011941 -0.002978 0.001865 (0.00747) (0.01038) (0.00784) (0.00485) (0.00359) 3 -0.007986 -0.000466 -0.001983 -0.003745 0.002241 (0.01144) (0.01491) (0.01746) (0.01039) (0.00622) 4 0.001515 -0.008186 0.015430 -0.007572 -0.000529 (0.01601) (0.02000) (0.02450) (0.01745) (0.00902) 5 -0.000567 -0.008987 0.017072 -0.012826 0.000122 (0.01854) (0.02355) (0.04028) (0.02347) (0.00961) 6 -0.007860 0.002114 -0.007815 -0.016982 0.003074 (0.02450) (0.02890) (0.04942) (0.02821) (0.00963) 7 0.001662 0.004589 0.045927 -0.019187 -0.000188 (0.02783) (0.03874) (0.04949) (0.03099) (0.00878) 8 -0.013425 -0.006051 0.003760 -0.031015 0.001122 (0.02942) (0.05564) (0.05598) (0.03407) (0.01010) Cholesky Ordering: DLOIL_SA DGDP_GAP DLM2_SA DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA
PH L C 4: Ph n ng tích l y c a các bi n v i cú s c thay đ i 1 đ n v đ
l ch chu n c a cú s c cung ti n M2
Period DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA
1 0.002510 -0.005878 0.001897 0.001310 (0.00466) (0.00193) (0.00164) (0.00126) 2 -0.011583 0.014639 0.007919 -0.001731 (0.01216) (0.00829) (0.00544) (0.00414) 3 -0.005683 -0.004869 0.020829 0.010459 (0.01531) (0.02011) (0.01076) (0.00625) 4 -0.004842 0.039237 0.035240 0.006053 (0.02330) (0.02504) (0.01857) (0.01071) 5 0.002865 0.008465 0.040612 0.007735 (0.02996) (0.05099) (0.02454) (0.01089) 6 0.023842 0.026211 0.044837 0.000369 (0.03767) (0.06310) (0.02670) (0.01366) 7 -0.009835 0.009493 0.051299 0.002298 (0.04273) (0.08318) (0.02837) (0.01630) 8 -0.002899 -0.007174 0.039746 -0.004177 (0.04264) (0.09380) (0.03057) (0.01646)
Cholesky Ordering: DLOIL_SA DGDP_GAP DLM2_SA DLNEER_SA DLIMP_SA DLPPI_SA DLCPI_SA
PH L C 5: Ph n ng tích l y c a các bi n v i cú s c thay đ i 1 đ n v đ