333 Cộ ởng (GROW):
5.3. Hƣớng phát triển của đề tài:
Khi thị trƣờng chứng khoán Việt Nam phát triển hơn, thông tin của các doanh nghiệp đầy đủ hơn, nghiên cứu việc lựa chọn cấu trúc vốn của công ty nên đƣợc thực hiện trên mẫu dữ liệu quan sát rộng hơn và thời gian quan sát dài hơn.
Các nghiên cứu tiếp theo có thể đƣa thêm các iến vĩ mô (lạm phát, lãi suất, tốc độ tăng trƣởng kinh tế…) vào để xem xét tác động lựa chọn cấu trúc vốn đầy đủ hơn, chính xác hơn.
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
TIẾNG VIỆT
1. Bùi Phan Nhã Khanh, 2012. Nghiên cứu các nhân tố ảnh hƣởng đến cấu trúc tài chính Doanh nghiệp ngành chế tạo niêm yết trên sàn HOSE. Tuyển t p Báo cáo hội ngh Sinh viên Nghiên cứu khoa h c, Trƣờng Đại học kinh tế Đại học Đà Nẵng.
2. Lê Đạt Chí, 2013. Các nhân tố ảnh hƣởng đến việc hoạch định cấu trúc vốn của các nhà quản trị tài chính Việt Nam, đăng trên tạp chí ể Hộ N số 9(19).
3. Phạm Trí Cao, Vũ Minh Châu, 2009. Kinh t ng ứng dụng, Đại học Kinh tế TP.HCM, Nhà xuất bản Thống kê.
4. Trần Hùng Sơn, 2008. Các nhân tố tác động đến cơ cấu vốn của công ty niêm yết trên TTCK Việt Nam, http://saga.vn/view.aspx?id=8938
5. Trần Ngọc Thơ, Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Trang, Phan Thị Bích Nguyệt, Nguyễn Thị Liên Hoa, Nguyễn Thị Uyên Uyên , 2005. Tài chính doanh nghi p hi n i, Đại học Kinh tế TP.HCM, Khoa Tài chính Doanh nghiệp, Nhà xuất bản Thống kê.
6. Trần Thị Hòa. Một số ý kiến về tiêu chí phân loại doanh nghiệp nhỏ và vừa theo nghị định số90/2001 NĐ – CP của Chính Phủ
7. Số liệu áo cáo tài chính đƣợc lấy từ trang we : www.vietstock.vn
TIẾNG ANH
1. Booth et al (2001). Capital structure in developing countries”. Journal of Finance 56, pp. 87-130.
2. Cho-Min Lin & Chien-Ming Huang (2011). The influences of ownership structure: Evidence from China. The Journal of Developing Areas 45, pp 209 – 227
3. DeAngelo, H. và R. Masulis (1980). Optimal capital structure under corporate
and personal taxation. Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 127-135.
4. Degryse, Goeij & Kappert (2009). The Impact of Firm and Industry Characteristics on Small Firms’ Capital Structure: Evidence from Dutch Panel Data. Working Paper. Tilburg University, The Netherlands
5. Dzung Nguyen, Ivan Diaz-Rainey, Ivan Diaz-Rainey (2012). Financial Development and the Determinants of Capital Structure in Vietnam. SSRN 2014834.
6. Fama & French (2002). Testing trade-off and pecking order predictions about dividends and debt. The Review of Financial Studies 15 , pp. 1-33. 7. Frank & Goyal (2009). Capital Structure Decisions: Which Factors are Reliably Important? Finace Management 38, pp 1 – 37
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10. Jean J.Chen (2003). Determinants of capital structure of Chinese-listed companies. Journal of Business Research 57, PP. 1341 - 1351
11. Leary & Roberts (2005). Do firms rebalance their capital structures?
Journal of Finance 60, pp. 2575 – 2619
12. Modigliani & Miller (1958). The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. The American Economic Review 48, pp. 261 - 297
13. Modigliani & Miller (1963). Corprate income tax and the cost capital: A correction. The American Economic Review 53, pp. 433 – 443
14. Myers & Majluf (1984). Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors don’t have. Journal of Financial Economics 13 (2), pp. 187-221
15. Myers (1977). Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics 5 (2), pp. 147-175
16. Myers (1984). The capital structure puzzle. Journal of Finance 34, pp. 575-592
17. Myers (2001). Capital structure. Journal of Economic 15, pp. 81 – 102 18. Nahum Biger, Nam V. Nguyen, Quyen X. Hoang, (2007). The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from Vietnam, Volume International Finance Review issue 8 , pp.307 - 326
19. Nguyen, Tran Dinh Khoi & Ramachandran (2006). Capital structure in small and medium-sized enterprises: the case of Viet Nam. ASEAN Economic Bulletin
20. Rajan và Zingales ( 1995). What do we know about capital structure?
Some evidence from international data. Journal of Finance 50 (5), pp. 1421-
1460
21. Rebel A. Cole (2008). What Do We Know About the Capital Structure of Privately Held Firms? Evidence from the Surveys of Small Business Finance.
MPRA Paper, No. 8086, 2008
22. Titman & Wessels (1988). The determinants of capital structures choice”.
Journal of Finance 43, pp. 1-19
23. Victor & Francisco (2011). Firm size and capital structure: evidence using dynamic panel data. Applied Economics 44 (36), pp. 4745-4754
PHỤ LỤC
PHỤ LỤC 1: KIỂM ĐỊNH HAUSNAM TEST
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: Untitled
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 24.406232 7 0.0010
** WARNING: estimated cross-section random effects variance is zero. Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob. NDTS 1.669079 1.710590 0.012491 0.7103 PROF -0.931555 -0.845944 0.001365 0.0205 GROW 0.056419 0.058955 0.000073 0.7665 ITAG -0.317915 -0.228215 0.004752 0.1932 LNTA 0.025294 0.021261 0.000015 0.2930 LNSLS 0.039592 0.036054 0.000017 0.3850 LNEMP 0.003989 0.002728 0.000015 0.7461
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: DEBT
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 11/17/13 Time: 22:15 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 220
Total panel (balanced) observations: 1100
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -0.535501 0.069337 -7.723121 0.0000 NDTS 1.669079 0.226794 7.359462 0.0000 PROF -0.931555 0.077719 -11.98626 0.0000 GROW 0.056419 0.016490 3.421499 0.0007 ITAG -0.317915 0.158822 -2.001702 0.0456 LNTA 0.025294 0.007785 3.249159 0.0012 LNSLS 0.039592 0.008048 4.919550 0.0000 LNEMP 0.003989 0.006990 0.570662 0.5684 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.389411 Mean dependent var 0.275359 Adjusted R-squared 0.231343 S.D. dependent var 0.208719 S.E. of regression 0.182991 Akaike info criterion -0.377167 Sum squared resid 29.23287 Schwarz criterion 0.655283 Log likelihood 434.4421 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.013416 F-statistic 2.463567 Durbin-Watson stat 2.524002 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
PHỤ LỤC 2: KIỂM ĐỊNH TỰ TƢƠNG QUAN
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.153594 Prob. F(2,1086) 0.8576 Obs*R-squared 0.310494 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.8562 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 12/05/13 Time: 09:06 Sample: 3 1100
Included observations: 1098
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.000494 0.056660 0.008715 0.9930 NDTS 0.005372 0.191162 0.028103 0.9776 PROF 0.001695 0.066132 0.025636 0.9796 GROW -0.000275 0.013206 -0.020847 0.9834 ITAG 0.000215 0.138748 0.001548 0.9988 LNTA 0.000205 0.006463 0.031777 0.9747 LNSLS -0.000154 0.006607 -0.023280 0.9814 LNEMP -0.000251 0.005566 -0.045094 0.9640 AR(1) 0.219488 0.620482 0.353738 0.7236 AR(2) -0.152986 0.279966 -0.546443 0.5849 RESID(-1) -0.219147 0.621378 -0.352678 0.7244 RESID(-2) 0.184059 0.345510 0.532717 0.5943 R-squared 0.000283 Mean dependent var -1.89E-13 Adjusted R-squared -0.009843 S.D. dependent var 0.177334 S.E. of regression 0.178204 Akaike info criterion -0.600905 Sum squared resid 34.48779 Schwarz criterion -0.546247 Log likelihood 341.8970 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.580226 F-statistic 0.027926 Durbin-Watson stat 1.997149
Prob(F-statistic) 1.000000
PHỤ LỤC 3: KIỂM ĐỊNH PHƢƠNG SAI THAY ĐỔI
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic 5.475781 Prob. F(7,1092) 0.0000 Obs*R-squared 1.668859 Prob. Chi-Square(7) 0.0525 Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares
Date: 12/07/13 Time: 11:31 Sample: 1 1100
Included observations: 1100
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.031969 0.006448 4.957902 0.0000 NDTS^2 0.606742 0.197569 3.071037 0.0022 PROF^2 -0.101717 0.031181 -3.262114 0.0011 GROW^2 0.003644 0.000776 4.696324 0.0000 ITAG^2 -0.129197 0.124888 -1.034502 0.3011 LNTA^2 -3.80E-05 5.18E-05 -0.734354 0.4629 LNSLS^2 6.84E-05 5.38E-05 1.270094 0.2043 LNEMP^2 -9.70E-05 9.31E-05 -1.041675 0.2978 R-squared 0.001517 Mean dependent var 0.032097 Adjusted R-squared 0.027718 S.D. dependent var 0.039355 S.E. of regression 0.038806 Akaike info criterion -3.653225 Sum squared resid 1.644469 Schwarz criterion -3.616840 Log likelihood 2017.274 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.639460 F-statistic 5.475781 Durbin-Watson stat 1.863390 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003
PHỤ LỤC 4: KẾT QUẢ HỒI QUY CHO TOÀN MẪU QUAN SÁT
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 08:53 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 220
Total panel (balanced) observations: 1100
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.085142 0.036293 -2.345970 0.0192 LDEBT 0.810085 0.016844 48.09458 0.0000 NDTS 0.326205 0.120589 2.705093 0.0070 PROF -0.331320 0.042048 -7.879509 0.0000 GROW 0.066112 0.008697 7.601961 0.0000 ITAG -0.089461 0.083622 -1.069824 0.2850 LNTA 0.012585 0.002740 4.592088 0.0000 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.831203 Mean dependent var 0.275359
Adjusted R-squared 0.786773 S.D. dependent var 0.208719
S.E. of regression 0.096379 Akaike info criterion -1.657444
Sum squared resid 8.081382 Schwarz criterion -0.611348
Log likelihood 1141.594 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.261698
F-statistic 18.70801 Durbin-Watson stat 2.521826
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 08:54 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 220
Total panel (balanced) observations: 1100
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.095501 0.034190 -2.793242 0.0053 LDEBT 0.804983 0.016902 47.62547 0.0000 NDTS 0.334905 0.120226 2.785626 0.0055 PROF -0.364647 0.042269 -8.626776 0.0000 GROW 0.067954 0.008624 7.879548 0.0000 ITAG -0.137955 0.082923 -1.663652 0.0965 LNSLS 0.013960 0.002684 5.201722 0.0000 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.832327 Mean dependent var 0.275359
Adjusted R-squared 0.788192 S.D. dependent var 0.208719
S.E. of regression 0.096058 Akaike info criterion -1.664122
Sum squared resid 8.027594 Schwarz criterion -0.618026
Log likelihood 1145.267 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.268376
F-statistic 18.85882 Durbin-Watson stat 2.508606
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 08:56 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 220
Total panel (balanced) observations: 1100
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.007843 0.019284 -0.406682 0.6843 LDEBT 0.820821 0.016140 50.85644 0.0000 NDTS 0.198028 0.120965 1.637064 0.1020 PROF -0.342823 0.042004 -8.161734 0.0000 GROW 0.068976 0.008631 7.991715 0.0000 ITAG -0.130058 0.083062 -1.565807 0.1178 LNEMP 0.014907 0.003064 4.865381 0.0000 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.831692 Mean dependent var 0.275359
Adjusted R-squared 0.787390 S.D. dependent var 0.208719
S.E. of regression 0.096240 Akaike info criterion -1.660340
Sum squared resid 8.058010 Schwarz criterion -0.614244
Log likelihood 1143.187 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.264594
F-statistic 18.77330 Durbin-Watson stat 2.483005
PHỤ LỤC 5: KẾT QUẢ HỒI QUY CHO MẪU QUAN SÁT CÁC CÔNG TY LỚN
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 22:28 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 147
Total panel (balanced) observations: 735
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.031303 0.047603 0.657584 0.5111 LDEBT 0.832507 0.020107 41.40359 0.0000 NDTS 0.697157 0.140471 4.962984 0.0000 PROF -0.439534 0.050559 -8.693497 0.0000 GROW 0.111726 0.013824 8.081941 0.0000 INTAG -0.106253 0.120258 -0.883542 0.3773 LNTA 0.003563 0.003496 1.018925 0.3087 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.855296 Mean dependent var 0.300709
Adjusted R-squared 0.816241 S.D. dependent var 0.213485
S.E. of regression 0.091515 Akaike info criterion -1.757718
Sum squared resid 4.840726 Schwarz criterion -0.775160
Log likelihood 802.9613 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.378760
F-statistic 21.89982 Durbin-Watson stat 2.486156
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 22:28 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 147
Total panel (balanced) observations: 735
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.020544 0.046664 0.440264 0.6599 LDEBT 0.831685 0.019943 41.70335 0.0000 NDTS 0.696157 0.140266 4.963119 0.0000 PROF -0.446977 0.050419 -8.865220 0.0000 GROW 0.111875 0.013729 8.149084 0.0000 INTAG -0.125617 0.120488 -1.042568 0.2976 LNSALES 0.004459 0.003492 1.276944 0.2021 Effects Specification
Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.855444 Mean dependent var 0.300709
Adjusted R-squared 0.816429 S.D. dependent var 0.213485
S.E. of regression 0.091468 Akaike info criterion -1.758740
Sum squared resid 4.835779 Schwarz criterion -0.776183
Log likelihood 803.3371 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.379783
F-statistic 21.92602 Durbin-Watson stat 2.489226
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 22:29 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 147
Total panel (balanced) observations: 735
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.032260 0.029536 1.092232 0.2752 LDEBT 0.834150 0.019367 43.07173 0.0000 NDTS 0.669742 0.140427 4.769316 0.0000 PROF -0.439249 0.050381 -8.718613 0.0000 GROW 0.112297 0.013645 8.230057 0.0000 INTAG -0.115447 0.119935 -0.962580 0.3362 LNEMP 0.006990 0.004168 1.676868 0.0941 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.855738 Mean dependent var 0.300709
Adjusted R-squared 0.816803 S.D. dependent var 0.213485
S.E. of regression 0.091375 Akaike info criterion -1.760776
Sum squared resid 4.825943 Schwarz criterion -0.778219
Log likelihood 804.0853 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.381819
F-statistic 21.97825 Durbin-Watson stat 2.492268
PHỤ LỤC 5: KẾT QUẢ HỒI QUY CHO MẪU QUAN SÁT CÁC CÔNG TY VỪA VÀ NHỎ
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 15:03 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 73
Total panel (balanced) observations: 365
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.128806 0.064978 -1.982308 0.0484 LDEBT 0.766526 0.031150 24.60727 0.0000 NDTS -0.181641 0.245227 -0.740707 0.4595 PROF -0.130880 0.079679 -1.642599 0.1016 GROW 0.058309 0.012380 4.709792 0.0000 INTAG 0.113097 0.113325 0.997990 0.3191 LNTA 0.014600 0.005113 2.855286 0.0046 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.780779 Mean dependent var 0.224312
Adjusted R-squared 0.717034 S.D. dependent var 0.188985
S.E. of regression 0.100530 Akaike info criterion -1.559925
Sum squared resid 2.849947 Schwarz criterion -0.673099
Log likelihood 367.6864 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.207489
F-statistic 12.24844 Durbin-Watson stat 2.607779
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/11/14 Time: 15:04 Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 73
Total panel (balanced) observations: 365
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -0.118312 0.067482 -1.753252 0.0806 LDEBT 0.765012 0.031819 24.04262 0.0000 NDTS -0.125443 0.253635 -0.494581 0.6213 PROF -0.179493 0.082718 -2.169946 0.0308 GROW 0.059070 0.012403 4.762516 0.0000 INTAG 0.066730 0.113142 0.589788 0.5558 LNSALES 0.014768 0.005708 2.587073 0.0102 Effects Specification
Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.779670 Mean dependent var 0.224312
Adjusted R-squared 0.715603 S.D. dependent var 0.188985
S.E. of regression 0.100783 Akaike info criterion -1.554882
Sum squared resid 2.864357 Schwarz criterion -0.668056
Log likelihood 366.7659 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.202446
F-statistic 12.16952 Durbin-Watson stat 2.613548
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: DEBT
Method: Panel Least Squares
Date: 01/11/14 Time: 15:05
Sample: 2008 2012
Periods included: 5
Cross-sections included: 73
Total panel (balanced) observations: 365
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.014350 0.056110 0.255752 0.7983 LDEBT 0.792064 0.030359 26.09013 0.0000 NDTS -0.325816 0.243116 -1.340166 0.1813 PROF -0.127358 0.080889 -1.574477 0.1165 GROW 0.059114 0.012586 4.696985 0.0000 INTAG 0.063846 0.116558 0.547763 0.5843 LNEMP 0.008087 0.011408 0.708919 0.4790 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) Period fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.774842 Mean dependent var 0.224312
Adjusted R-squared 0.709371 S.D. dependent var 0.188985
S.E. of regression 0.101882 Akaike info criterion -1.533206
Sum squared resid 2.927123 Schwarz criterion -0.646380
Log likelihood 362.8101 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.180770
F-statistic 11.83483 Durbin-Watson stat 2.673235
