probability probability distributions and sampling distributions
Other Probability Distributions
... tall and colorful plants are crossed with short and colorless plants, the corresponding probabilities are 3 16 , 16 , 16 , and 16 for tall and colorful, tall and colorless, short and colorful, and ... colorful, and short and colorless If plants are selected, find the probability that will be tall and colorful, will be tall and colorless, will be short and colorful and will be short and colorless ... are randomly selected and tested, find the probability that exactly one will be defective SOLUTION: Since there are defective tanks and good tanks, a ¼ and b ¼ If tanks are randomly selected and...
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PHÂN PHỐI XÁC SUẤT (Probability distributions) ppt
... 3 1 x 3 2 1 < 2 < 3 3 1 2 3 x 1 < 2 < 3 x Phân phối bình thường chuẩn (Standard Normal Distribution) Là thành viên quan trọng họ PPBT, gọi PPBT đơn vị, có = = Biến số...
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lectures on probability theory and statistics - jean picard
... mutant and a new (j − 1)-class (probability j(cj + 1)/n) On the other hand, the ancestral join occurred with probability (n−1)/(θ+ n − 1), and in that case the configuration b = c + ej − ej+1 , and ... population genetics, and there are several good references Crow and Kimura (1970) has a lot of the ‘old style’ references to the theory Ewens (1979) and Kingman (1980) introduce the sampling theory ... individual twice (probability 1/N ) this probability is In the other case, the two individuals are different if and only if their common ancestor is more than r generations ago, and the ancestors...
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john wiley & sons - 2002 - the option trader's guide to probability, volatility and timing (a mar
... Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding The ... Chapter ix 81 Probability Weighing the Pros and Cons 81 Strategies for a Bullish Scenario 82 Profit/Loss Comparisons 86 Delta 89 Probability Analysis 91 The Correct and Incorrect Ways to Use Probability ... understand just what the risk is before they make their trades Jay Kaeppel explains these issues in The Option Trader’s Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing Kaeppel covers the basics and...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 10 docx
... www.futuresmag.com What It Offers Trading books and tapes Links to advisories, brokers, newsletters, and software Charting and educational materials Charting and company information Articles related ... money and the shorter term the option you buy should be > 50; Buying in-themoney options is preferable This reduces amount of time premium paid as a percent of option price and increases probability ... Look for meaningful support and resistance Best used when volatility is high and underlying security is overbought Best used when a stock you want to buy is oversold and volatility has exploded...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 1 pot
... Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding The ... including assets, expected future earnings, and the supply of and demand for the shares of the company Accurately determining the supply of and demand for a company’s stock is very important ... (present and future), interest rates, and supply and demand Most major currencies are quoted against the U.S dollar Therefore, there will typically be an inverse relationship between the U.S dollar and...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 2 potx
... expiration Nevertheless, expiration dates and cycles are important to understand They set the terms of the contract and spell the duration of the option holder’s rights and of the option seller’s obligations ... the risk profile Understanding and managing risk is the critical task of all traders Very experienced traders and the mathematically adept may be able to intuitively understand what risk is being ... has been trading between $40 and $80 during the past six months and sometimes jumps $15 in a single day In that case, XYZ has exhibited relatively high volatility and, therefore, the stock has...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 3 potx
... volatility, and thus a higher premium Review price and volume charts over the past year to explore past price trends and liquidity Choose a short put option with the best profit-making probability ... and short options with different strike prices and like expiration dates The juxtaposition of long and short options results in a net debit or net credit The net debit of a bull call spread and ... price trends and liquidity by reviewing price and volume charts over the past year Choose a higher strike call no more than 45 days out to sell against long shares of the underlying stock and then...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 4 ppsx
... market and/ or one trading technique and trade it over and over again until you get really good at it If you can find just one strategy that 166 THE OPTIONS COURSE works, you can make money over and ... characteristics—volatility and high liquidity and use the appropriate time frame for the trade THE DELTA To become a delta neutral trader, it is essential to have a working understanding of the Greek term delta and ... trades and the high and low ends of the range A sound strategy and calculated methodology are critical to an option trader’s success Why is the trade being implemented? Are volatilities low and...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 5 ppt
... stock and let the calls expire worthless • The underlying shares fall within the downside and upside breakevens: This is the range of risk and will cause you to con- Straddles, Strangles, and Synthetics ... strike put and buy a greater number of lower strike puts The strikes are the same as before: 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 The 60 put is the highest strike and comes with the highest intrinsic value and 40 ... fields and have an increasing stream of earnings and quarter-overquarter growth Check to see if this stock has options available Explore past price trends and liquidity by reviewing price and volume...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 6 docx
... an online and traditional brick and mortar presence Some firms like E*Trade and Charles Schwab have developed online trading platforms and physical locations that investors can visit and business ... support and resistance levels, I take a ruler and draw the lines before choosing which options to buy and sell In many cases, I am willing to accept a lower profit potential for an expanded profit ... Let’s say you get a hot tip on a stock, and you decide to position yourself for a big gain if the stock moves up You place the order and wait, and wait, and wait! The stock does nothing You may...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 7 ppt
... will always meet demand Take away the demand and look what happens SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION In the United States, stock exchanges are regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission ... electronic Island network is the most popular order route among day traders It is very inexpensive and amazingly fast and offers tremendous liquidity Some of the major rules applying to the Island network ... the margin needed, just pick up the phone and call your broker Margin and Risk 377 Stocks Based on the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the clearing firms, margin equals 50 percent...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 8 pps
... reverses and the trade moves against you Let’s look behind the scenes of how analysts and institutions really work It’s amazing how many individual investors and traders still live and die by ... present, and they attempt to forecast where it is going in the future Annual reports and quarterly financial statements (and their close How to Spot Explosive Opportunities 417 government-mandated ... tool, and I would urge any new market technician to understand their proper use and application Another technique is to use a momentum indicator This technical market indicator utilizes price and...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 9 ppt
... exchanges, and European, Asian, and Canadian stocks and futures • Commodity and futures option information from CBT, CME, NYBOT, NYMEX, KCBT, MGE, MidAm, and COMEX • Quotes on stock and currency ... other hand, if I am bearish and implied volatility is high, I might consider a bear call spread or a bear put spread In conclusion, the table is a guide to help you understand your alternatives and ... financial achievement and accolades, which often go hand-in-hand In general, our culture respects achievement Our daily lives are full of pressures to be better, faster, and more accurate Of course...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 10 pps
... candlestick chart Chart that includes the price range for the day, as well as the opening and closing price A candlestick bar includes a “body” bounded by the open and close for the period and ... including price and volume Oscillators provide insight on trending markets and are most closely associated with determining overbought and oversold conditions Upper and lower fixed bands are incorporated ... smallest quantity of shares traded on an exchange at standard commission rates Bollinger bands Specific types of envelopes that use expanding and contracting values employed as a lagging indicator...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 1 pptx
... Australia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding The ... Chapter ix 81 Probability Weighing the Pros and Cons 81 Strategies for a Bullish Scenario 82 Profit/Loss Comparisons 86 Delta 89 Probability Analysis 91 The Correct and Incorrect Ways to Use Probability ... understand just what the risk is before they make their trades Jay Kaeppel explains these issues in The Option Trader’s Guide to Probability, Volatility, and Timing Kaeppel covers the basics and...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 2 pptx
... now and then, but a solid understanding of the basics is required to achieve consistent long-term success Option trading has a vocabulary all its own In this chapter you will learn many common and ... June, July options expire on the third Friday in July, and so on For futures options, the expiration months and expiration dates can vary and are set by the exchange on which a given series of ... prices for options on futures are set by the exchange and vary from commodity to commodity Expiration date The date after which an option is void and ceases to exist is its expiration date For U.S...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 3 pptx
... with a moving average and one or more standard deviation bands drawn above and below the moving average A moving average helps to smooth out the short-term fluctuations and makes it easier to ... moving average drawn through the data Also shown are a band that is 1.5 standard deviations above the moving average and a band 1.5 standard deviations below the moving average 79.88 73.08 66.28 ... one period and through a range of underlying prices For this display, volatility and interest rates are held constant The range of stock prices is listed down the left side of the grid and the number...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 5 potx
... trader must understand that this possibility exists and under what circumstances it is most likely to occur Traders must also acknowledge and deal with the spreads between bid and ask prices This ... the lower the probability of profit Too many traders focus on the leverage aspect of options and forget to consider the probability aspect Traders who have been around for a while and have had ... factor most easily missed in looking at leverage is probability If the 50:1 bet has a 5% probability of profit and the 10:1 bet has a 50% probability of profit, the 10:1 leverage trade is a better...
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The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 6 pdf
... presented in each chapter are not intended to serve as hard -and- fast rules but as guidelines to help you understand the importance and potential benefits of planning for the various contingencies ... significantly in price and does not rebound, you will invariably suffer a loss The same will happen if you buy a put option and the price of the underlying security advances sharply and does not pull ... the further in the money and the shorter term the option you buy should be This minimizes the amount of time premium you pay and reduces your exposure to time decay and a sharp decline in volatility...
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