The option trader s guide to probability volatility and timing phần 5 potx

an oversold reading (if holding puts) from another momentum oscillator. The Underlying Is Expected to Move in a Particular Direction but Not in a Specific Time Frame Traders often decide that they expect a security to rise or fall, but they have no specific time frame in mind. Here, too, options can be used to maximize profitability, but other concerns specific to option trading must be taken into consideration. Figure 8.2 depicts trading signals for Intel from a trend- following system. The system generates a buy-calls or buy-puts signal and holds that position indefinitely, depending on the ac- tion of the stock. As a result, a trade could conceivably last a day, a week, a month, or longer. However, there is no way to know at the time of the initial entry signal how long the trade will last. This has important implications for an option trader. Option traders using a trend-following method such as this absolutely must take steps to minimize the amount of time 102 The Option Trader’s Guide 83132 81332 79532 77732 75932 74132 72332 330 424 516 609 705 727 821 Calls were purchased. Calls were sold. Buy calls Buy puts Exit tradeor Figure 8.1 Example of short-term trading signals on the S&P 100 (OEX). More free books @ www.BingEbook.com decay their trades are exposed to. A trader trading without a specific time frame, who routinely buys expensive (i.e., high- volatility) options, will invariably lose money in the long run because time decay or declines in volatility, or both, will even- tually eat away too much of the profit potential. The Underlying Is Expected to Move Significantly but the Direction Is Unknown One opportunity that is unique to option trading is the ability to enter a position that will create a profit whether the price of the underlying security rises or falls. The most common approach is to buy a straddle (see Chapter 15), which involves buying a call option and a put option simultaneously. The only reason to use this strategy is if you expect the underlying security to make a large price move and are not sure which direction it will move. In general, stocks and futures markets tend to trend for a while and then consolidate for a while, then trend again, and so Market Timing 103 7577 6811 6045 5279 4513 3747 2981 612 718 822 929 1106 1212 10119 Buy calls Buy puts Profit-taking opportunityor Exit trade Figure 8.2 Trend-following trading signals on Intel. More free books @ www.BingEbook.com on. If you can identify a security that has been consolidating for a long time, you may surmise that it is likely to begin a new trend soon. If the only vehicle you have at your disposal is buy- ing or selling short that stock or futures market, you must choose the direction you expect the anticipated trend to go. If you choose the right direction, you stand to make money; if you choose the wrong direction, you stand to lose money. In essence, you have a 50:50 chance of being right. Alternatively, instead of picking a direction, you can buy a call and a put simultaneously and wait for the underlying security to show a trend. Figure 8.3 shows a proprietary oscillator that attempts to dis- cern when a security is likely to trend, without giving any indi- cation as to the direction of that trend. Whenever this oscillator exceeds 90 on the upside or 10 on the downside, it is suggesting that a trend may soon develop. Each such reading is marked on the chart by an up arrow and a down arrow. There are seven such signals on this chart for the underlying stock, America Online (AOL). Six of the seven signals were followed by price move- ments large enough to yield a profit to a trader who had bought a call and a put at the time of each signal. 104 The Option Trader’s Guide 9598 8359 712 0 5881 4642 3403 2164 990127 990326 990527 990729 990928 991126 128 Buy calls and put Figure 8.3 Nondirectional signals on America Online. More free books @ www.BingEbook.com Traders can use a number of measures to identify quiet mar- kets. Although a thorough discussion of the indicators is beyond the scope of this book, some examples that industrious traders may wish to explore are ADX, historical volatility ratios (e.g., the 6-day historical volatility divided by the 100-day historical volatility), and the number of trading days since the last x-day high or low. The Underlying Is Expected to Stay within a Range or Not Move Much in Any Direction One more opportunity unique to option trading is the potential to make money when a security does nothing. As discussed else- where in the book, there are a number of ways to take advantage of neutral situations, when a security displays no trend at all. Entry timing for these types of trades can be triggered by certain indicators, or more subjectively, by observing on a bar chart that a given security is presently bracketed by significant support and resistance levels. Figure 8.4 shows several signals for Conseco (CNC) based on Welles Wilder’s the ADX Directional Movement Index (DMI) in- dicator (on a scale of 0 to 100) exceeding the 75 level on the up- side. These signals often indicate an overbought security that may be due for some consolidation. Overbought readings are noted by a solid down arrow. The overbought situation takes precedence over the ADX DMI indicator dropping below 50, which is shown by an empty down arrow. Identifying overbought situations can be a very useful timing technique for investors who write covered calls. As you can see in Figure 8.4, between each solid arrow and each empty arrow the stock traded sideways to lower. A holder of Conseco stock could potentially have written out-of-the-money calls and col- lected premium as the stock trended lower. Other strategies can be used to exploit this going-nowhere situation. They include buying calendar spreads, selling vertical spreads, selling naked puts, and entering butterfly spreads (see Chapters 14, 16, 17, and 19). Market Timing 105 More free books @ www.BingEbook.com Summary Market timing is essentially a quest for the holy grail. Some- times a trader’s timing is good, and sometimes it is not. Accurate timing when entering and exiting option trades can greatly in- crease your trading profits, and poor timing can generate large losses over time. The purpose of this chapter is not to reveal any mystical secrets of market timing but to start option traders thinking in terms of time frame and situation. Entirely different timing methods may be appropriate for a trader who is attempt- ing to take advantage of a short-term move than for one who is trying to capture a long-term trend. 106 The Option Trader’s Guide 1172 1060 948 836 724 612 500 613 713 811 913 1016 1115 1218 Overbought stock. ADX DMI < 50. Figure 8.4 Covered call-writing opportunities for Conseco. More free books @ www.BingEbook.com Chapter 9 TRADING REALITIES 107 Theory is one thing, reality is another. Nowhere is this truer than in the world of trading. At times it seems that there is a chasm a mile wide between theory and reality. In the real world of trading, all our well-thought-out trading plans, time-tested in- dicators, reliable patterns, and well-established relationships can suddenly stop working—completely and permanently—leaving a practitioner of these methods in danger of losing significant money. In a slightly less dire vein, often the simple day-to-day mechanics of trading can be different from what a trader ex- pected them to be. This too can act as a serious impediment to long-term success. For example, if your method requires spend- ing an hour a day updating data, analyzing markets, and placing orders, but you have only 30 minutes a day to devote to these tasks, then your approach has a fatal flaw that will likely cost you a lot of money. This chapter discusses some realities of option trading that you should give some serious thought to. These can seem fairly mundane, but they can make a major difference in your trading. Exercise and Assignment If a call holder decides she wants to buy the underlying stock, or if a put holder decides he wants to sell the underlying stock, each would exercise his or her option. To do this, the buyer of an option indicates to her broker that she wants to exercise her TEAMFLY Team-Fly ® More free books @ www.BingEbook.com option. Using something like a lottery process, some trader who is short that particular option would be assigned the obligation to deliver 100 shares of stock to the call option buyer. For exam- ple, say a trader is long one March call option with a strike price of 55. The stock rises to 65 and the trader decides she wants to own the stock. To make this happen she would call her broker and say that she wants to exercise this particular option. A trader who previously sold short the March 55 call and had not yet bought it back would be assigned on the option. This trader would need to either buy 100 shares of stock in the open market and deliver them to the option buyer (at a price of $55 per share) or deliver 100 shares of stock he already holds. On the put side, consider a trader who is long one March put option with a strike price of 55. The stock falls to 45 and the trader decides he wants to short the stock from 55. To make this happen he calls his broker and says that he wants to exercise this particular option. A trader who previously sold short the March 55 put and has not yet bought it back would be assigned on the option. This trader would need to sell short 100 shares of stock in the open market and deliver them to the option buyer (for a price of $55 a share) or deliver 100 shares of stock she al- ready holds short. Another consideration often overlooked by novice traders is automatic exercise. When stock and stock index options expire, the Option Clearing Corporation automatically exercises any unclosed long call or put position that is at least one-eighth of a point in the money at the time of expiration. Because of this, in most cases, traders who are short an in-the-money option near expiration are best advised to close that position before expira- tion, unless they specifically want to hold a position, be it long or short, in the underlying security. Many a novice trader has been surprised on Monday morning after expiration to be holding a long or short position in the underlying. Options can be either American style or European style. American style options can be exercised at any time up until op- tion expiration. European style options can only be exercised at expiration. Most U.S. stock options are American style, and many stock index options are European style. 108 The Option Trader’s Guide More free books @ www.BingEbook.com The Implications of Exercise Though it does not get talked about much, the unexpected ex- ercise of a short option position can have significant implica- tions. Myriad spread strategies are available to an option trader. Some involve buying options at one strike price and selling op- tions at another strike price. Traders often put on such trades after inspecting a risk curve that shows the expected profit or loss at expiration, thinking they will simply close out the trade at expiration with the indicated profit or loss. However, if the op- tion (or options) they sold short as part of a spread were to trade deep in the money before expiration, there is a very real likeli- hood that the trades will be assigned on that option, forcing them to deliver stock while still holding the other options in their spread. This event can throw the expected results way out of whack. Getting assigned on a short option is not a catastrophic event in and of itself. The important point is that the writer of an op- tion must be aware of the possibility of getting assigned on that option and the potential impact of this event on the intended strategy. When to Expect an Option to Be Exercised There are two primary situations in which a trader can expect an option to be exercised. The first situation is at expiration. If you are holding a long option that does not settle in cash and you hold the position through expiration, you will end up with a long position in the underlying security. If you are short an option that does not settle in cash and you hold the position through ex- piration, you will end up with a short position in the underlying security. You should also be concerned about being exercised on a short option if it is trading deep in the money. As a rule of thumb, if an option is trading at parity (i.e., there is no time pre- mium in the price of the option) or just slightly above parity, you can generally expect it to be exercised. Trading Realities 109 More free books @ www.BingEbook.com An Example One popular strategy for which option exercise is relevant is a backspread. Chapter 13 presents the various considerations for using a backspread. For now we focus solely on how early exer- cise can affect this trade. As an example of a backspread consider a position in which a trader sells one 50 call option at a price of 5 points and buys two 55 call options at a price of 2 points each. If the underlying stock rallies up to 70 or higher, the 50 call op- tion that was written will be deep in the money. Once it loses al- most all its time premium, the odds are great that the option will be exercised. Should this happen, the trader will have to either buy 100 shares of the underlying stock to deliver or buy back the option he has written. In either case he leaves himself with two long calls, which is not a position he intended to be in. If the stock price then falls, he stands to take serious losses as the long calls decline in price and he no longer has the short call position to offset some or all of those losses. His other alternative is to ex- ercise one of his long calls. Should he choose this route, he would then be left with one long call option, which again is not the position he intended to be in when he entered into a backspread. The question is not whether the trader in this example will ultimately make or lose money on this trade. The point of this example is to illustrate how the position he ended up with was far different from the one he intended to be in when he entered the trade. In the end he may make money, but not without first having to make some quick and unexpected decisions. What is important to understand is that the possibility for this type of situation exists whenever an option that you have written trades deep in the money. Bid and Ask Prices and the Importance of Option Volume When the time comes for new traders to move past the learning stage, after they have spent a lot of time absorbing the theory of options, the next step is to begin placing real orders, making real 110 The Option Trader’s Guide More free books @ www.BingEbook.com trades, and getting real fills. At this point many new traders ex- perience something of a shock. When new traders test out their trading strategies, they often pull option prices out of the news- paper and assume that the price that appears in the newspaper was the price at which they bought or sold. In fact, many new traders make the mistaken assumption that if a price is printed in the paper they can buy or sell as many options as they want to at that price. This is not true. When you place an order to buy (or sell) a given option, you can obtain the latest bid and ask price quotes, either from your broker or from a data service. If you place a market order to buy an option (i.e., you want to buy the option without specifying a price), you pay the ask price. If you place a market order to sell an option (i.e., you want to sell the option without specifying a price), you receive the bid price. The effect of buying at the ask price and selling at the bid price can have a profound effect on your trading results, both on a trade-by-trade basis and cumulatively. Appreciating the Effect of Bid-Ask Spreads Table 9.1 displays option price information for IBM on January 5. The grid shows the last trade price (“Market”) as well as the cur- rent bid and ask prices for each option. Careful study of this grid will help you to obtain a sense of what to expect in the real world. To gain a true appreciation of the effect that bid-ask spreads have in real-world trading, consider the following example. Say you are bullish on IBM stock and decide to buy 10 contracts of the February 100 call option at the current market price. The current asked price is 4.88, so you pay $4875 to buy the 10 con- tracts (4.875 × $100 × 10 contracts). Moments later you get buyer’s remorse, deciding that you have made a bad trade and you want to exit the trade immediately. The stock is still trading at the same price, so you place a market order to sell your 10 op- tion contracts. Because nothing has changed in those few seconds between the time you bought the options and the time that your order to sell these options hits the market, you might expect to Trading Realities 111 More free books @ www.BingEbook.com [...]... greatest leverage This is a key point: The further out of the money the option, the greater the leverage and the lower the probability of profit Too many traders focus on the leverage aspect of options and forget to consider the probability aspect Traders who have been around for a while and have had some success in buying options come to learn that buying in -the- money options is one of the secrets to option- buying... considering the effect of bid-ask spreads on your trading Factors in Dealing with Bid-Ask Spreads Generally speaking, you can expect to find the bid-ask spreads for stock and stock index options, as seen in Table 9.2 At times, trading in the face of the bid-ask spread can seem like playing against a stacked deck and in some ways it is Nevertheless, this is the reality of the situation If you want to trade options,... positions they might enter A carefully crafted spread position can be thrown completely out of whack when the trader is assigned on a short option To be successful, a trader must understand that this possibility exists and under what circumstances it is most likely to occur Traders must also acknowledge and deal with the spreads between bid and ask prices This is extremely important when trading options... understanding of each concept Once you begin to learn the ideas, this chapter will serve as a one-stop reference guide to them This chapter also establishes a framework for selecting trades using these important concepts as a guide Valid Reasons to Trade Options As discussed in Chapter 2, several opportunities might prompt someone to trade options Options offer a variety of unique opportunities that... their chances for success Try to Follow the Options on Every Single Stock or Futures Market It is a common desire of many traders to be able to scan the universe of available options in an effort to find the best trade This is an understandable desire The thinking goes like this: “If I More free books @ www.BingEbook.com Important Concepts to Remember 123 consider every possible option, I am sure to. .. 3. 25 2.00 1.81 2.06 1. 25 1.00 1. 25 56 56 75 FEB 42 Calls Table 9.1 IBM Option Bid and Asked Prices 19. 75 19. 25 19. 75 15. 75 15. 75 16. 25 13.12 12. 75 13. 25 10.12 10.12 10.62 8.00 7.88 8. 25 6.12 6.12 6 .50 4.88 4.62 5. 00 3 .50 3 .50 3. 75 2.62 2.62 2.88 APR 106 21 .50 21 .50 22. 25 18 .50 18 .50 19.00 15. 75 15. 75 16. 25 13. 25 13.00 13 .50 10.88 10.88 11.38 8.88 8.88 9.38 7 .50 7.38 7.88 6.12 6.00 6 .50 4. 75 4. 75 5.12... in Option Trading There are certain concepts a trader must understand to be successful trading options Although traders can enjoy success using widely varying approaches, certain guidelines must be adhered to, regardless of the approach you use The key trading guidelines are • Understanding the strategies available • Knowing when to employ a given strategy for maximum benefit • Accurately assessing the. .. option on a stock, not only must the stock price rise for you to make money, it also must rise far enough and fast enough to offset the negative effect of time decay A small rise in the price of the stock may make a winner out of the buyer of the stock itself, but it may not necessarily result in a profit for the buyer of an option on that stock Traders who dismiss this subtlety of option trading severely... which is essentially a plus, the problem is that traders often end up dabbling in a variety of trading strategies because they look interesting More often than not, however, traders fail to fully understand the associated risks and rewards before using the strategy and eventually lose enough money that they decide not to use that strategy anymore The key is to take the time to learn the pros and cons of... The upshot is that the more actively traded the option, the more likely you are to be able to buy or sell it at a favorable price This concept escapes most new traders until they lose enough money due to wide bid-ask spreads on illiquid options to cause them to change their thinking There is nothing wrong per se with trading thinly traded options as long as you understand the implications of this spread . put option with a strike price of 55 . The stock falls to 45 and the trader decides he wants to short the stock from 55 . To make this happen he calls his broker and says that he wants to exercise this. If the stock price then falls, he stands to take serious losses as the long calls decline in price and he no longer has the short call position to offset some or all of those losses. His other. call option with a strike price of 55 . The stock rises to 65 and the trader decides she wants to own the stock. To make this happen she would call her broker and say that she wants to exercise