Khi nào ASEAN có đồng tiền chung
Trang 1L ich sa tien te c$n d,?ida vadang chung kien sl! ra dC1ivaton t,?icua haidongtien chungcua hai nhom nLfdc Do la, Rupchuyen doi (RCD) cua cac nLfdcXHCN trLfdcday, va EUROcua congdong ChauAu hi$n nay.
Ml;]ctieu ra dC1icua cac dong tienchungve C0ban la giong nhau.Do lavi$c cung co va tang cLfC1nglien ketkinhte, hanche cac rui ro tai chinhcothe xay ra do tac dQngcua cac cUQckhung hoang kinh te khu Vl!CcOngnhLftren ph,?mvi toan the gidi.
Van de d$t ra la, vi sao RCD phai"ra di" cung vdi sl! sup do cua pheXHCN, con EURO ngay cang thehi$n dLf(,1Cvai tro cua minh tren thitrLfC1ngthe gidi? Day la cau hoi dindLf(,1Cdat ra cho cac nLfdCASEANtrLfdCkhi dLfara 'I tLfC1ngthiet I$p mQtdong tien chungcua khu vl!c.
RCDdLf(,1Cra dC1iva hO'?tdQngvditLfcachladong tien chung cua cacnLfdcXHCN vao nhiing nam dau cuath$p ky 60 va ket thucsu m,?nglich sacua minh sau khi phe XHCN khongcon ton t,?iniia vao nhiing nam daucua th$p ky 90 (the ky 20) Trong khiEUROI,?ira dC1ivao nhiing nam cuoicua th$p ky 90, khi ca the gidi danghLfdngvao xu the hQinh$p.
M$c dau dLf(,1C99i la dong tienchung cua HQidong tLf0ngtr(,1kinhte(99i 1;3tla khoi SEV), thl!C chat nodLf(,1Csadl;]ng nhLfmQtcong Cl;]dechuyen doi phl;]c vl;] cac yeu cauthanh toan va chi tra cua cac nLfdctrong pham vi khoi SEV RCD cOngdLf(,1Cquy djnh ham ILf(,1ngyang va coquan h$ tygia hoi doai vdi USD Can
giiia RCD vdi cac dong tien quoc giatrong khoi.
D$c diem rieng co cua RCD la nochI dLf0Cphepton t,?iva v$n hanhvdivai tro cua m9t dongtien ghi so, phl;]cVl;]nhu cau thanh toan va chi tra cho
cac hO'?td9ng xuat nh$p kh~u hanghoa, d!chvl;]giiia cac nLfdccOngnhLf
Chilli D.uh Plm'oug *
cac to chuc kinhte, doanhnghi$pcuacac nLfdctrong khoi M9i thanh toanbtmg RCDdU<;5cthl!c hi$n thong quaNgan hang h(,1ptac kinh te quoc te(MBES).RCDkhongton t,?idLfdihlnhthuc tien m$t Vi v$y, ph,?mviho'?td9ng cua RCD co nhiing h,?n chenhat dinh.Do cOngla 1'1do cho sl! com$t cua cac dong tien quoc gia (bant$) cungvdi sl! ton t,?icua RCD.
Dieu can ILfu'I la, RCD ra dditrong dieu ki$n cua kinh te ke ho,?chhoa- t$p trungquanlieu- baocap, I,?ichI dongvai tro cua m9t dongtien ghiso nen da khongt'?o ra dLf(,1Csl! ganket ch$t cheve l(,1iich kinhte giiia cacquoc gia trong khoi vdi nhau M9tm$t, RCDlay USDde xac dinh ty giahoi doai; m$t khac, suc mua "doi noiva doi ngo,?i"cua no chI dLf(,1CdieuchInh theo C0 che xac dinh gia cuakhoiSEV luc bay giC1la cu 5 namthl!C
hi$n mQtIan nen lam cho no khongthe phathuy du0Cvai tro cua minhvditLfcach m9td6ng-tienchungcua khoi.Vi v$y, ml;]ctieu tang cuC1nglien ketkinh te cua khoiSEV d$t ra da khongthl!C hi$n dLf(,1Ccang lam cho quatrlnhSl;]p docua HQidong tLf0ngtr<;lkinhte (SEV)di~n ra m9t cach nhanhchong h0n.
Khach~nvdi RCD,EUROdLf<;lCradC1ivdi nhiing tfnh toan rat ky ILfBng,
th$ntr9ng,chu~nxacW ml;]ctieu, n9i
dung, chLf0ngtrinh, ke ho,?chcOngnhLf 19 trinh thl!C hi$n M9t trongnhiing nguyen nhan quyet dinh sl!thanhcongcua EUROchinhla nhU'ngtien de ve kinh te va xa h9i cOngnhLfcac dieu ki$n ve chinh tri va ngo,?igiao tren ph,?mvi toan cau Sl! phattrien va Idn m,?nhcua m9t lien minhgiiia cac quocgia, trLfdchet la ve kinhte Vi$c lien minh kinh te giiia cacnLfdcphai lay lien minh tien t$ la mQttrong nhiing lien minh quan tr9ngnhat.Tronglien minhtien t$ thi vi$c diden thoa thu$n ve mQt dong tier
chung la sl! khdi dau co tfnh quyetdinh MQtdongtien chungcOngchfnhla bieu tLf<;lngcua sl! thong nhat venhieu m$t cua mQtlien minhgiiia cacquoc gia vdj nhau, dac bi$t la ve l<;Iifch kinh te.
ASEAN trong tU'dnglai
De ASEANco dLf<;lCm9t dong tienchung trong tu0ng lai, trLfdchet, phaitfnh den cac dieu kiencho no ra dC1iva hO'?tdQng.Do la nhiing dieu ki$n
ve chfnhtri- kinh te - >,<ahQicua cacnudcthanhvien va nhiing van de lienquan den dC1isong kinh te chfnh tritren toan the gidi Vi$c nghien cuumQtcach toan di$n, day du va sausac cac dieu ki$n de cho ra dC1imQtdong tien chung cua cac nLfdcthanhvien co 'I nghia vo cung quan tr9ng,quyet dinh sl! thanhcong hay that b,?icua no trong tLf0nglai De vi$c Il!ach9n va dLfara dLf<;lCcac dieu ki$ncan va du cho sl! ra dC1icua mQtdongtien chung,cac tieu chi ve dinh ILf<;lngva dinh tfnh phai co la:
- C6 nhO'ngquandiemtLf0ngdongtrong chfnh sach doi n9i va doi ngo,?igiiia cac nLfdcthanh vien;
- Duytri dLf<;lCsl! on dinh ve kinhte- chfnhtri - xa h9i;
- T,?ora sl! gan ket benviing trongqua trinh phattrien kinhte -xa h9i cuamai nudc thanh vien cOng nhLfcuatoan khoi;
- Co sl! nhattrf cao trongvi$c chiase nhO'ngthu$n l<;IicOng nhLf kh6khan lien quan den I<;Iifch cua mai
nLfdcthanh vien cOngnhLfcua toankhoi;
- Xoa bo dan sl! chenh lech trongphat trien kinh te - xa h9i giO'acae
nLfdc thanh vien, d$c biet ve mue
song va trinh dQdan tri;
- Khongco sl! cach bi$t qua Idnve
muc d9 va toc dQ phat trien cua cae
chI tieu kinh te va xa h9i giO'acaenudc thanh vien (tong the cOngnhu
* NHNN\,
Trang 2binhqUEmdau ngLfCiidoi voi: tong sanphamxa hQi,thu nh$pquocdan,tong
kim ng?ch xuat nhap khau, dl/ trCt
ngo?i t$, tong nguon van huy dQng,tong dLfnC1cho yay,ty 1$n9 qua h?n,ty 1$I?m phat).
Khi cac dieu ki$n nay dLf9cxemxet mQtcach ky ILfangthi cac quyetdinh dLfara lien quan den vi$c ra dCiimQtdong tien chung cho cac nLfocASEAN moi co dLf9Ctfnh chuan xacva thuyet ph(,Jc.TrongtrLfCingh9P dat?OdLfC1CsLfdongthu$ncuatat ca cacnLfocthanh vien thi vi$c ra dCiicuadongtien chungASEANse g$p dLfQCrat nhieu thuan lC1i.Neu co mQtnLfocthanh vien nao do chLfadu cac dieuki$n can thiet cho vi$c sLtd(,Jngdonglien chungthi do la quyencua ho can
dLfC1Cton tr<;Jng.
TrLfochet, dong tien chung cuaASEANcan co mQtten 99i thich hQpd$c trLfngcho dCiisong kinh te - vanhoa - xa hQi cua tat ca cac nLfoc.Song, dieu dang quan tam la, dongtien chung cua ASEAN phai la m9tdongtien thLfcsLfphat huy day du vaitro va chCrcnangcua minhvoi tLfcachla m9t trong nhCtngcong c(,Jkinh te-tai chinh quan trong dLf9C SLt d(,Jngvao vi$c thl/C hi$n cac m(,Jctieu kinh
te-xa hQi cua cac nLfoc thanh vien,cOng nhLfcua toan khoi.
Vi$c ra dCii dong tien chung cuaASEAN phai dLfQCtien hanh dong thCiivoi viec ket thuc vai tro lich SLtdongtien quoc gia cua cac nLfoc thanh
vien Theo do, vi$c xac dinh sCrcmua
cua dong tien chung nay cOng candLfQCxem xet mQt cach th$n tr9ng.
Khi co dagc dong tien chung,nhClngIgi ich do no mang lfili se la:
- Gop phan quan tr9ng vao vi$cmCirQng va phat trien cac ho?t dQngkinh te doi ngoai cua cac nLfoc thanhvien, d$c bi$t doi voi vi$c tang kimng?ch xuat nh$pkhauhang hoa vadich V(,J.Theo mQt so cong trinhnghien cCrucho thay sl/ ra dCii cuadong tien chung co the tang gap 3 Iankhoi ILfQngbuon ban trang khu vl/cChau A:
- Thuc day qua trinh lien ket kinhte, t?O dieu ki$n cho vi$c thl/C hi$nchuyen man hoa san xuat theo them?nh cua mai nLfoc;
- Khong phai sLt d(,Jngngo?i t$ tl/nLfoc kem pha! trien hC1nse phai doido chuyen doi cua cac nLfoc va cacm$t voi sl/ c?nh tranh gay gat hC1n;khu vl/c kinh te khac de thanh toan,d$c bi$t la trong huy dQng van va chochi tra cho nhau trang cac ho?t dQngyay; vi$c ch?y dua voi chat ILf9ng vaxuat nh$p khau hang hoa - dich V(,Jgia thanh san pham cua cac loai hanggiCta cac nLfoc thanh vien voi nhau.hoa va dich V(,Jngan hang mQt m$tNhCiv$y, giam bot cac chi phi dich V(,Jthuc day vi$c hinh thanh cac t$p doanngan hang cho cac doanh nghi$p,ngan hang m?nh, m$t khac d$t cactranh dLfQCcac rui ro ve 1131suat va tyngan hang nho yeu the hC1ntrLfocgia hoi doai;nguy CC1pha san ho$c bi "than tfnh";
- Han che den mCrcthap nhat tac - Vi$c SLt d(,Jngdong tien chungdong c~a cac cUQckhung hoang kinhcOng co the dLfa den kha nang dieu
te-tai chinh tren the gioi, d$c bi$t Cichinh ILfu thong hang hoa - tien t$cac khu vLfccua EURO va USD.giCtacac nLfac thanh vien, trong do,- Tang' cLfCinggiao ILfukinh te vam9t so nghe truyen thong nhung kem
- BUQccac nLfC1cthanh vien quantrCinen kho kiem soat hC1n'
san p am - , A' tien chung, can phal tfnh toan ky
- Qua so sanh mCrcsong, phuc19i Nam con nh$p sieu thi chung do conxa hQi bang thu nh$p thl/C te dLfQC rat can den ngo?ite tLfdo chuyendoitfnh bangdongtien chung co the lam cua cac ntioc ngoai khu vl/c ASEANnay sinh nhieu van de lien quan den nhti EURO,USD nen vi$c can doi cC1cac chinh sach kin_hte - xa hQican cau xuat - nh$p khau voi cac ntiocphai dLfQCgiai quyet cua cac nLfoc trong khu vl/c va ngoai khu vl/c canthanhvien;trong do, nhu cau tim vi$c phai dtiQctfnh toan ky ltiang.
lam Cicac nLfocco thu nh$pcao hC1n, Voi tinh tr?ng thu nh$p binh quandinh cti CinhCtngnLfocco moi trtiCing ?auingtiCiith~p,Vi$t t)JamboJh~phaichinh tri - xa hQion dinh hC1nseJ~ """':'$'t vQEV1$C':nhCtng,ggq:dicQ!9YnhCtngvan de gop phan't?o'ra nhCthg' , a c9~trinh'~QcQuyen""mon,giRixao trQn.nhatdinh.chocac nLfOG,~d~t:":r.' iem vi$6lam Ci;nhCtng"'nuqpcObi$t la trong thCiigiandau khiASEAN ';"'thu nh$pcao hdn ned car:tCOcryfnhmoi co dongtienchung'; " (sach de phong nguava n~an:'t,h$fY,'c
- SI/ c?nhtranhtrenfhtiC1ngtrtiCingi~~.,,£)e'~Ho y tti9D91iv.~tm6td6ngti~nse quyet.li$t hC1n,baCd()anhnghi$p chung trCithanh,hi$ri"'thI/C,ca~ ntiocyeu kemse kho co cC1hQiqetOnt?i, ASEAN phM doi.ll'!$t vol mQtkhoi
d$c bi$t vai cac d?anh nghi$p Ci'cac Itii;1ngcong vi$c f'5f,i6ncan dLfQCthl/C
ntioc kem phat trien hC1n;. hi$n mQtcach th~n tr9ng va chuan- Vi$c xac dinh gia thanh, gia ban xa.c.Vi v$y,khi nao ASEAN co dongcho cung mQt 10<;lisan pham hang tien chUf')gv§n dan~ la van de d$t rahoa - dich V(,Jcua cac ntioc thanh bho cacntiaCthanhviencanN timra
vien can dtiC1Cthtic hien theo mot so cau tra ICiitren cdM xem xet motnguyentac ~hatdinh ~hamtranh tirih:; cach day du,~)au sac ~a't(5an."pi$'ntr<;lngco sl/ chenh I$ch qua Iando 'cac dieu ki$n"'can va d~ cho no.nhCtngtiu the ve trinh dQcongngli~;" NhCtngdieu ki$n'do quan n$ trl/Ctieptay nghe va nhCtngtiu dai khac do den cac IQiichsong con cua mai ntiocthien nhien ban t$ng; thanh vien cOngnhti cua toan khoi,
- HO<;ltd9ng ngan hang CinhCtng ma trtioc het la h;!iich kinh te